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  #201  
Old 04-04-2020, 06:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
Some bad numbers for Biden:
  • 15 percent of Bernie voters say they are going to vote for Trump this November;
Who are these assholes? I want names and addresses.
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  #202  
Old 04-04-2020, 08:42 PM
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Who are these assholes? I want names and addresses.
You need to have it explained. I will try.

The Left is not happy with Biden, or, for that matter, the Democratic Party. The Party has steadily nudged them out since Carter (who was a conservative), and has become just another tool of the plutocrats. They feel that they can get by without the Left, so the Left gets told to sit down and STFU, or even just to fuck off.

So where is there for the Left to go? The Democrats do not want them, do not even seem to want to acknowledge that the Left even exists. It is a pretty small contingent, but it may be enough to make the difference in a close election. The Middle is the big plum, but it is hard to hold on to, and ignoring the Left is a dubious strategy.

Obama turned out to be a major disappointment, failing to reverse some of the worst policies put in place by his predecessor. Biden was Obama's right-hand man and did not seem to show any objection to Obama's insipid leadership. So why should the Left have any enthusiasm for him? The Democratic Party has put themselves into a big hole and they continue to dig.

The Cheeto-Faced ShitGibbon will, unchecked, continue to ravage the country to the best of his ability. If there is any hope, it would be that he fully rips away the Republican façade to reveal the depraved, fetid ugliness within, and perhaps Left-ish policies might be seen as real solutions. Or the nation will cathartically collapse, which could allow things to get better – or worse.

Realistically, there is not much to hope for with either candidate. As far as I can tell, President Biden would be like morphine for a nation already on its last leg.

Last edited by eschereal; 04-04-2020 at 08:44 PM.
  #203  
Old 04-04-2020, 08:49 PM
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One needs to understand the mentality of such folks. I've had some small experience with them and I explain it thusly: To them a win is a win, that part is obvious. But, to them, a loss is also a win, because a loss will make things worse to the point where they can gather more followers for their point of view with "See, do you believe us now?" kinds of arguments. Where they error, in this particular case, is in the belief that another four years of trump (or merely, trumpism) is something that can be come back from, if you'll forgive my tortured syntax there.
  #204  
Old 04-04-2020, 09:39 PM
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Bernie voters couldn't be bothered to vote for Bernie, worrying about whether they will vote for Biden seems foolish. You can't count on them so you have to ignore them and form a coalition that does not take them into account. Only people who vote get catered to.
  #205  
Old 04-04-2020, 10:07 PM
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You need to have it explained. I will try.

The Left is not happy with Biden, or, for that matter, the Democratic Party. The Party has steadily nudged them out since Carter (who was a conservative), and has become just another tool of the plutocrats. They feel that they can get by without the Left, so the Left gets told to sit down and STFU, or even just to fuck off.

So where is there for the Left to go? The Democrats do not want them, do not even seem to want to acknowledge that the Left even exists. It is a pretty small contingent, but it may be enough to make the difference in a close election. The Middle is the big plum, but it is hard to hold on to, and ignoring the Left is a dubious strategy.

Obama turned out to be a major disappointment, failing to reverse some of the worst policies put in place by his predecessor. Biden was Obama's right-hand man and did not seem to show any objection to Obama's insipid leadership. So why should the Left have any enthusiasm for him? The Democratic Party has put themselves into a big hole and they continue to dig.

The Cheeto-Faced ShitGibbon will, unchecked, continue to ravage the country to the best of his ability. If there is any hope, it would be that he fully rips away the Republican façade to reveal the depraved, fetid ugliness within, and perhaps Left-ish policies might be seen as real solutions. Or the nation will cathartically collapse, which could allow things to get better – or worse.

Realistically, there is not much to hope for with either candidate. As far as I can tell, President Biden would be like morphine for a nation already on its last leg.
Personally I think America is doomed regardless of how the 2020 election turns out. Even if by some miracle Bernie won the nomination, there is no way he has the skill or will to play hardball to be the modern day FDR and Biden is a complete joke. America was dealt a mortal blow with the Reagan Presidency and it has taken 30 years for it to finally start to bleed out. Death to America.
  #206  
Old 04-05-2020, 08:05 AM
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Like it or not there are not enough left voters to win 270 votes in EC. Don't see that changing any time soon. They can win house and senate seats and state races like CA, NY, Mass, etc.
  #207  
Old 04-05-2020, 10:33 AM
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Originally Posted by eschereal View Post
You need to have it explained. I will try.

The Left is not happy with Biden, or, for that matter, the Democratic Party. The Party has steadily nudged them out since Carter (who was a conservative), and has become just another tool of the plutocrats. They feel that they can get by without the Left, so the Left gets told to sit down and STFU, or even just to fuck off.

So where is there for the Left to go? The Democrats do not want them, do not even seem to want to acknowledge that the Left even exists. It is a pretty small contingent, but it may be enough to make the difference in a close election. The Middle is the big plum, but it is hard to hold on to, and ignoring the Left is a dubious strategy.

Obama turned out to be a major disappointment, failing to reverse some of the worst policies put in place by his predecessor. Biden was Obama's right-hand man and did not seem to show any objection to Obama's insipid leadership. So why should the Left have any enthusiasm for him? The Democratic Party has put themselves into a big hole and they continue to dig.

The Cheeto-Faced ShitGibbon will, unchecked, continue to ravage the country to the best of his ability. If there is any hope, it would be that he fully rips away the Republican façade to reveal the depraved, fetid ugliness within, and perhaps Left-ish policies might be seen as real solutions. Or the nation will cathartically collapse, which could allow things to get better – or worse.

Realistically, there is not much to hope for with either candidate. As far as I can tell, President Biden would be like morphine for a nation already on its last leg.
I've lived half my life in Canada. I'm a huge advocate for social democracies and my views on politics were shaped early on by P.E.Trudeau, "Towards a Just Society". There is nothing a Bernie supporter can teach me about social democracies. Especially since so many of them don't understand the difference between that and "democratic socialism".

But I continue to be mystified by their attitudes and (lack of) understanding of American culture and society in which they live. Especially when they espouse views like the one above. It is entirely void of the reality and of what's possible and good. To welcome something worse in order to make everyone finally see how right they are... well... calling it out as childish petulance is being kind. I would say another 4 years of Trump would be a good lesson for them, but I've realized their world view comes from a place so deeply vindictive and narrow minded that they absolutely relish the opportunity to cut off their own nose to spite everyone's face. 'Come the revolution...', indeed.
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Last edited by QuickSilver; 04-05-2020 at 10:33 AM.
  #208  
Old 04-05-2020, 11:25 AM
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Can Biden beat Trump? Is this thread still open?
No. @ Mods — Close the thread.

There was a chance before the virus came, but now with the rally-around-the wartime-leader effect, along with huge opportunity for GOP cheating using the pandemic as an excuse, that chance has vanished. D's may as well regroup and focus on unseating Pence in 2024.


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... I continue to be mystified by [Bernie supporters'] attitudes and (lack of) understanding of American culture and society in which they live. Especially when they espouse views like the one above. It is entirely void of the reality and of what's possible and good. To welcome something worse in order to make everyone finally see how right they are... well... calling it out as childish petulance is being kind. I would say another 4 years of Trump would be a good lesson for them, but I've realized their world view comes from a place so deeply vindictive and narrow minded that they absolutely relish the opportunity to cut off their own nose to spite everyone's face. 'Come the revolution...', indeed.
"Rally around the left-of-center!" is a battle cry that might have worked. But the media stirs up shrill shit-storms. If/when votes are cast in November, they'll mostly be cast for Hatred, not Hope.
  #209  
Old 04-05-2020, 11:49 AM
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I've lived half my life in Canada. I'm a huge advocate for social democracies and my views on politics were shaped early on by P.E.Trudeau, "Towards a Just Society". There is nothing a Bernie supporter can teach me about social democracies. Especially since so many of them don't understand the difference between that and "democratic socialism".

But I continue to be mystified by their attitudes and (lack of) understanding of American culture and society in which they live. Especially when they espouse views like the one above. It is entirely void of the reality and of what's possible and good. To welcome something worse in order to make everyone finally see how right they are... well... calling it out as childish petulance is being kind. I would say another 4 years of Trump would be a good lesson for them, but I've realized their world view comes from a place so deeply vindictive and narrow minded that they absolutely relish the opportunity to cut off their own nose to spite everyone's face. 'Come the revolution...', indeed.
if you find yourselves going in circles, you need to cut down on the revolutions
I personally do not advocate for "revolution", because Pete Townshend was spot on when he said, “Meet the new boss: same as the old boss”, but the US system is deeply broken, and we have no one available to move it toward better. In the last half century, the Democrats have come in and carefully put the scotch tape back on the bandaids that they previously stuck over the damage that the Republicans have wracked up.

Your Canadian perspective is apparently inadequate, because the Canadian system is somewhat less fucked up. To the Left, the Democrats have increasing less to offer the country.

Obama's ACA was designed in the early '90s by the right-wing Heritage Foundation, and they could not even work up the stones to put in a public option. There was an opportunity to rein in the USA PATRIOT Act that Bush/Cheney rammed through after 9/11– all the Democratic-controlled Congress had to do was let it lapse, but they were not able to do that.

There is no indication that Biden has anything to offer. He would be little more than a placeholder for the next round of Republicanihilism. We are running out of time, and SCotUS is already out of reach. Why should the left support a man who will do nothing but postpone the collapse of the country until the situation becomes entirely untenable?

I might vote for him (or whichever D is on the ballot) in November, but I live in a state where my vote does not count anyway, so maybe I will vote Green or something. But I will not express support for him.
  #210  
Old 04-05-2020, 12:10 PM
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if you find yourselves going in circles, you need to cut down on the revolutions
I personally do not advocate for "revolution", because Pete Townshend was spot on when he said, “Meet the new boss: same as the old boss”, but the US system is deeply broken, and we have no one available to move it toward better. In the last half century, the Democrats have come in and carefully put the scotch tape back on the bandaids that they previously stuck over the damage that the Republicans have wracked up.

Your Canadian perspective is apparently inadequate, because the Canadian system is somewhat less fucked up. To the Left, the Democrats have increasing less to offer the country.

Obama's ACA was designed in the early '90s by the right-wing Heritage Foundation, and they could not even work up the stones to put in a public option. There was an opportunity to rein in the USA PATRIOT Act that Bush/Cheney rammed through after 9/11– all the Democratic-controlled Congress had to do was let it lapse, but they were not able to do that.

There is no indication that Biden has anything to offer. He would be little more than a placeholder for the next round of Republicanihilism. We are running out of time, and SCotUS is already out of reach. Why should the left support a man who will do nothing but postpone the collapse of the country until the situation becomes entirely untenable?

I might vote for him (or whichever D is on the ballot) in November, but I live in a state where my vote does not count anyway, so maybe I will vote Green or something. But I will not express support for him.
It was not clear in my post, but I've lived and worked in the US for 20 years. I'm not a stranger to American politics and attitudes. The Sanders supporter "all or nothing" attitude is naive at best and will delay, if not outright harm, progressive politics and policies at worst. If you cannot compromise with those who will meet you half way, and threaten to vote in line with those who stand against everything you claim to stand for, then you are as bad as the MAGAcult. Worse, in fact, because you do so deliberately, out of vindictiveness. And it does not fool anyone at all when you dress it up as high moral principle aimed at a better future outcome. Whether through empty threats or petulant actions you are holding the good hostage for an ideal you do not even fully understand.
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Last edited by QuickSilver; 04-05-2020 at 12:12 PM.
  #211  
Old 04-05-2020, 01:09 PM
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It was not clear in my post, but I've lived and worked in the US for 20 years. I'm not a stranger to American politics and attitudes. The Sanders supporter "all or nothing" attitude is naive at best and will delay, if not outright harm, progressive politics and policies at worst. If you cannot compromise with those who will meet you half way, and threaten to vote in line with those who stand against everything you claim to stand for, then you are as bad as the MAGAcult. Worse, in fact, because you do so deliberately, out of vindictiveness. And it does not fool anyone at all when you dress it up as high moral principle aimed at a better future outcome. Whether through empty threats or petulant actions you are holding the good hostage for an ideal you do not even fully understand.
Some on the left will vote for Biden out of desperation, and one or two might advocate for him, but there is a great deal of apathy toward him. Fortunately for the Democrats, the left is a minority of their contingent, and they can probably safely ignore them, as they increasingly have been for the past half century. For some on the left, the attitude is that the Democratic Party has nothing to offer other than marginalizing the left more and more, so fuck them, let them fester in their own rightward decay.
  #212  
Old 04-05-2020, 01:24 PM
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Some on the left will vote for Biden out of desperation, and one or two might advocate for him, but there is a great deal of apathy toward him. Fortunately for the Democrats, the left is a minority of their contingent, and they can probably safely ignore them, as they increasingly have been for the past half century. For some on the left, the attitude is that the Democratic Party has nothing to offer other than marginalizing the left more and more, so fuck them, let them fester in their own rightward decay.
Q.E.D.
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  #213  
Old 04-05-2020, 01:24 PM
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One needs to understand the mentality of such folks. I've had some small experience with them and I explain it thusly: To them a win is a win, that part is obvious. But, to them, a loss is also a win, because a loss will make things worse to the point where they can gather more followers for their point of view with "See, do you believe us now?" kinds of arguments. Where they error, in this particular case, is in the belief that another four years of trump (or merely, trumpism) is something that can be come back from, if you'll forgive my tortured syntax there.
Right. Agitators and trolls. They seem to have an endless faith that chaos leaves them on top of something.
  #214  
Old 04-05-2020, 01:25 PM
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My take is that Biden is HRC without all the unfair baggage. So he'll cruise to a win in November. I'll never really understand the average voter's feelings towards the one and only legitimate female presidential candidate in our history; but they're real and led us into this mess. Trump didn't win, she failed to do so. Trump couldn't win without massive help from the other side.

Now instead of a generally unliked candidate we have one who's very much liked. Sure he does put his foot in his mouth on a regular basis; but you have to consider that he's done that for 45 years so its pretty clearly not a sign that his brain is succumbing to old age. He just speaks from the heart without planning and vetting every comment. Which I think people like.

All this being said the virus has completely re-shuffled things so who the hell knows what will happen next November?
  #215  
Old 04-05-2020, 01:26 PM
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Is no one watchng turnps pressers? You still think he can win? Anyone still in a previrus world? How do you get back there?
  #216  
Old 04-05-2020, 01:36 PM
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Is no one watchng turnps pressers? You still think he can win? Anyone still in a previrus world? How do you get back there?
For as long as I can suppress my gag reflex. But I also remember being absolutely sure the orange assclown could not possibly win in 2016. So yeah, he can win in 2020. The fuckery is baked in.
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  #217  
Old 04-05-2020, 01:39 PM
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Is no one watchng turnps pressers? You still think he can win? Anyone still in a previrus world? How do you get back there?
He is currently at +45%/-50% on 538, the highest he has been since late January of '17. As a parasite himself, it seems the virus is something he can identify with. I would not count him out because of this. The country may will be deep in the throes of a serious case of Stockholm Syndrome.

Last edited by eschereal; 04-05-2020 at 01:40 PM.
  #218  
Old 04-05-2020, 03:35 PM
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There might be some people who are swayed by outward signs of Presidentiality.

He hasn't handled this crisis at all well behind the scenes. And this has even huger consequences than his normal fuckups/corruption since actual people are dying.

But instead of being in the negatives on a scale of 1 to 10 in terms of "being Presidential", after it became clear we weren't going to "just wake up and one day it will just disappear", he's managed to move to around 1. Still the worst presidential performer ever, but not off the charts. Some people might be swayed by this outward appearance of normality if they don't bother to look at what he's actually doing to both actively and passively make this shitstorm worse than it has to be.
  #219  
Old 04-05-2020, 04:19 PM
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The girls need to save us. I can't believe any females can watch his grotesque pressers and cast a vote for him no matter how horrible their husbands are.

Rogan just said he will vote for tormp over Biden if that's the choice. After endorsing Sanders. You can't trust men to do the right thing anymore. Joe is just a little scared patriarchy subscriber.
  #220  
Old 04-05-2020, 04:28 PM
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Biden cruising to a win? On this planet? Maybe in some other solar system.
  #221  
Old 04-05-2020, 04:47 PM
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The girls need to save us. I can't believe any females can watch his grotesque pressers and cast a vote for him …
Fifty-fucking-three percent of white women voted for Individual-ONE in 2016, and that was with a woman leading the D side, so good luck getting the girls to help.
  #222  
Old 04-05-2020, 04:58 PM
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Rep. Doug Collins (R-Georgia) who was overlooked for the vacant senate seat by Georgia Governor Brian Kemp for Kelly Loeffler in January is now leading the polls in a primary for the seat in a November special election. She is one of the senators who recently got into a scandal over stocks and possible insider information.

Curiously Collins' poll also conducted a head to head between Trump and Biden. It's 48% vs 46%. In Georgia. A state democrats haven't won since Bill Clinton in 1992.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...neral/georgia/

It's one poll of course but given it's a GOP insider poll it stands out. I'm not sure how much resources the Democratic Party will put into Georgia as the analysis so far has been about those Obama-to-Trump states that flipped in 2016 but in the broader picture I do believe the sunbelt states will be a bigger factor for Democrats electoral success in the future.
  #223  
Old 04-05-2020, 05:02 PM
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Fifty-fucking-three percent of white women voted for Individual-ONE in 2016, and that was with a woman leading the D side, so good luck getting the girls to help.
Yup. i hope the other girls show up.
  #224  
Old 04-05-2020, 05:14 PM
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He is currently at +45%/-50% on 538, the highest he has been since late January of '17. As a parasite himself, it seems the virus is something he can identify with. I would not count him out because of this. The country may will be deep in the throes of a serious case of Stockholm Syndrome.
After 9/11 Bush's approval rating shot up to over 90% from the mid 50s, Trump has gone up 3 points or so. That is absolutely dismal in the midst of a terrible crisis.
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Old 04-05-2020, 05:35 PM
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A post I saw on another site compared Biden's Favorable/Unfavorable numbers (as per the overall RCP aggregate of polls) to Hillary's at the same point in 2016.

Biden as of April 5th 2020: Favorable 44.3 - 44.0 Unfavorable (+0.3)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...677.html#polls

Hillary on April 5th 2016: Favorable 40.3 - 54.0 Unfavorable (-13.7)

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...able-1131.html

Hillary was a unique candidate in that she had twenty five years of Republican smearing, in addition to the Russian meddling which at the very least was noted in the Mueller report to be targetted to boost Trump and Sanders during the primary battle. The emails scandal which was a closed case until Comey decided to open it a week before election day and of course the fact she had to take the good of being Bill's husband with the bad. Biden in contrast has only been a household name and a recognized face since 2008 by which point he was already into his sixties. If Hillary could go through all that and still get three million more votes, it makes me wonder how many extra votes could Biden win by virtue of not being Hillary, and still lose the electoral college. A latest Fox New poll shows him +9 against Trump (https://www.270towin.com/polls/2020-...tial-election/) which would be the biggest margin of victory since 1984 (Clinton won by 8.5% vs Bob Dole in 1996).

Last edited by Boycott; 04-05-2020 at 05:35 PM.
  #226  
Old 04-05-2020, 09:41 PM
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After 9/11 Bush's approval rating shot up to over 90% from the mid 50s, Trump has gone up 3 points or so. That is absolutely dismal in the midst of a terrible crisis.
I was about to say that. He should be killing it. Get up there and say how great the country is and how we will get through it together. Then step back and let the experts talk. But of course he can’t do that. He should have a Bush after Desert Storm boost right now and he’s not.

Add to that the belief from his base that this is all a hoax and any restrictions are tyranny and it’s not a good recipe for him. Still way too early in the crisis to tell what the outcome will be.
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Old 04-05-2020, 09:50 PM
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Polls tend to be rather noisy. A more appropriate comparison would probably be Kerry v. Bush from '04.
  #228  
Old 04-06-2020, 10:42 AM
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Fifty-fucking-three percent of white women voted for Individual-ONE in 2016, and that was with a woman leading the D side, so good luck getting the girls to help.
Those numbers have changed in the interim and the current gender gap might be the largest it's ever been. We're almost to the point in time where Trump's and Republicans' sole remaining sub-demographic is white men without college degrees. The demographic that is dying at an earlier average age than almost any other.
  #229  
Old 04-06-2020, 10:45 AM
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Those numbers have changed in the interim and the current gender gap might be the largest it's ever been. We're almost to the point in time where Trump's and Republicans' sole remaining sub-demographic is white men without college degrees. The demographic that is dying at an earlier average age than almost any other.
Yeah, but not in the next 6 months. So strap in for 4 more years.
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  #230  
Old 04-13-2020, 08:01 AM
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I keep getting paywalled by NYT and other sources but apparently Biden has an 11-point advantage in polls, which is obviously good.

What's less good is that it's not clear how Biden is really performing in battleground states, and on the other hand, what is clear is that Trump voters are a LOT more motivated to support their guy than Biden-leaning voters are to support Biden.

As it was with Hillary, it's not just who votes for Trump but also who decides to simply stay home and not support Biden. And in this regard, Biden has the exact same problem that Hillary had in 2016.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that despite the 11-point deficit, Trump - at least as of today - is the favorite to win reelection. And he will be until Biden begins to convince more of his 'leaners' to show up at the polls. Perhaps it will be Trump's own actions and decisions that convince voters more than Biden's speeches, which is fine in my view. But that case for Biden, or at minimum, the case against Trump, must be made somehow.
  #231  
Old 04-13-2020, 08:27 AM
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After 9/11 Bush's approval rating shot up to over 90% from the mid 50s, Trump has gone up 3 points or so. That is absolutely dismal in the midst of a terrible crisis.
After 9/11 Bush did not go on TV daily saying a lot of dumb stuff and lies. And Bush wasn't tweeting a lot of insults and lies.
  #232  
Old 04-13-2020, 08:34 AM
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I keep getting paywalled by NYT and other sources but apparently Biden has an 11-point advantage in polls, which is obviously good.

What's less good is that it's not clear how Biden is really performing in battleground states, and on the other hand, what is clear is that Trump voters are a LOT more motivated to support their guy than Biden-leaning voters are to support Biden.

As it was with Hillary, it's not just who votes for Trump but also who decides to simply stay home and not support Biden. And in this regard, Biden has the exact same problem that Hillary had in 2016.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that despite the 11-point deficit, Trump - at least as of today - is the favorite to win reelection. And he will be until Biden begins to convince more of his 'leaners' to show up at the polls. Perhaps it will be Trump's own actions and decisions that convince voters more than Biden's speeches, which is fine in my view. But that case for Biden, or at minimum, the case against Trump, must be made somehow.
By my understanding and recollection of things Nate Silver has said, state results are generally correlated with national results, such that if Biden has anything close to an 11 point lead, he'd probably run away with an easy EC win. But that doesn't mean that much this early, even if it's better having a larger lead than a smaller one. We'll see.
  #233  
Old 04-13-2020, 09:03 AM
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I keep getting paywalled by NYT and other sources but apparently Biden has an 11-point advantage in polls, which is obviously good.

What's less good is that it's not clear how Biden is really performing in battleground states, and on the other hand, what is clear is that Trump voters are a LOT more motivated to support their guy than Biden-leaning voters are to support Biden.

As it was with Hillary, it's not just who votes for Trump but also who decides to simply stay home and not support Biden. And in this regard, Biden has the exact same problem that Hillary had in 2016.

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that despite the 11-point deficit, Trump - at least as of today - is the favorite to win reelection. And he will be until Biden begins to convince more of his 'leaners' to show up at the polls. Perhaps it will be Trump's own actions and decisions that convince voters more than Biden's speeches, which is fine in my view. But that case for Biden, or at minimum, the case against Trump, must be made somehow.
From the recent polls for battle ground states (which are in short supply). Biden is leading in Florida, Michigan & Arizona. That is enough to take the Electoral Collage and in fact Arizona is a bonus. He was doing well in Pennsylvania also, his birth state, but not recent polls.

Ohio was tied and Biden actually leads North Carolina & Wisconsin. He leads every state that did vote for Hillary. If he can sustain or improve on this, he'll win by plenty.


So, no, Trump is not the favorite to win currently.

Useful resources:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2016_U...ntial_election
https://www.270towin.com/2020-polls-biden-trump/
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/
  #234  
Old 04-13-2020, 09:48 AM
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Trump knows a bad economy is his real worry now. Which explains why he wants everything back to normal ASAP
  #235  
Old 04-13-2020, 09:56 AM
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If we go "back to normal" too soon, there will be a second outbreak that could lead to much or most of the public to self-quarantine for months out of panic, killing the economy. Trump is probably too stupid to consider this possibility.
  #236  
Old 04-13-2020, 10:43 AM
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By my understanding and recollection of things Nate Silver has said, state results are generally correlated with national results, such that if Biden has anything close to an 11 point lead, he'd probably run away with an easy EC win. But that doesn't mean that much this early, even if it's better having a larger lead than a smaller one. We'll see.
Voter enthusiasm matters - it's one reason why the polls were off in the last election. I fully concede that this is not a scientific or necessarily an accurate metric, but if we were to take the polling average and then factor the voter enthusiasm polling:

Biden: 53% x .56 = 29.68

Trump: 42% x .80 = 33.6

Then Trump, despite polling worse, still has a better chance of winning. His voters are really, really motivated to go to the polls. Better yet, as we already know, in states like Wisconsin, Florida, and North Carolina, it's going to be easier for his voters to show up and vote than it will be for Biden's, so in these states the built-in advantage for Trump is that much greater.

You can't just take comfort in the polls. Trump's support among his supporters will need to crater before he is really in danger.
  #237  
Old 04-13-2020, 11:09 AM
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If we go "back to normal" too soon, there will be a second outbreak that could lead to much or most of the public to self-quarantine for months out of panic, killing the economy. Trump is probably too stupid to consider this possibility.
I say go for it, Donny! You know you want to - what's stopping you? Fire Tony Fauci, encourage your legions of religious nutters to congregate -- by all means, open up the economy! And let the chips fall where they may.
  #238  
Old 04-13-2020, 01:22 PM
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PredictIt has markets for all 56 electoral vote awarding entities (50 states, 3 NE CDs, 2 ME CDs, and DC). Link

Using their API I pulled a snapshot of how things stand right now and computed the implied probabilities for either party to win each state.

If we arbitrarily say a state is swingable if both parties have a greater than 20% to win then the electoral college breaks down like this...

Category Electoral Votes
Lean/Safe R 164
Swingable 146
Lean/Safe D 228

Here's how the swingables shake out...

Code:
State		Democratic	Republican	EV	Acc D	Acc R
Iowa		22.15%		77.85%		6	374	170
Georgia		25.87%		74.13%		16	368	186
Ohio		29.70%		70.30%		18	352	204
North Carolina	45.09%		54.91%		15	334	219
Florida		45.94%		54.06%		29	319	248
Arizona		54.82%		45.18%		11	290	259
Nebraska CD-02	57.28%		42.72%		1	279	260
Wisconsin	59.59%		40.41%		10	278	270
Pennsylvania	65.81%		34.19%		20	268	290
Michigan	69.94%		30.06%		16	248	306
New Hampshire	72.28%		27.72%		4	232	310
We can see from the accumulated electoral votes columns that WI is projected to be the tipping point state and that it leans a little bit D right now. But there's plenty of time between now and election day to move the needle so team R gets WI, PA, and MI, which is pretty much what happened last time.
  #239  
Old 04-14-2020, 10:45 PM
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I really, really don't understand your position. Donald J fucking Trump is President, and you may not vote? You think that the 'establishment' is preventing Bernie from getting the nomination?

And what do you mean Bernie didn't get a fair shake? What the hell are you talking about?

One reason that Bernie won't get the nod is it looks like he may not be able to beat Trump. Do you have ANY idea how important it is to remove Trump?
Right, Joe Biden, who can't speak a coherent sentence, excites nobody, and has a weird way about touching little girls is the "electable" candidate. Why? Because it's what we're told over and over so it must be so! The campaign slogan should be "Let's lose with Joe!" so we can keep our cushy DNC jobs and remain the corporate bootlicker party. And just wait when young people start to realize that Joe was instrumental in them not being able to discharge student loan debt through bankruptcy. Do you really think they're going to believe he's going to fight for them now? If so I've got a really good deal on a bridge...
  #240  
Old 04-14-2020, 11:05 PM
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Right, Joe Biden, who can't speak a coherent sentence, excites nobody, and has a weird way about touching little girls is the "electable" candidate. Why? Because it's what we're told over and over so it must be so! The campaign slogan should be "Let's lose with Joe!" so we can keep our cushy DNC jobs and remain the corporate bootlicker party. And just wait when young people start to realize that Joe was instrumental in them not being able to discharge student loan debt through bankruptcy. Do you really think they're going to believe he's going to fight for them now? If so I've got a really good deal on a bridge...
What a complete crock.
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  #241  
Old 04-16-2020, 02:53 AM
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I liked ALL the candidates on the Democratic stage but I was enthusiastic about only ONE: Elizabeth Warren. And I'm afraid that each of the candidates had severe electability problems. Biden was mediocre in his prime, and now is just plain too old. I settled on Biden because each of the others seemed even less electable than him.

I wish that D opinion-makers had gotten behind one of the middle-aged moderates, perhaps Inslee. (But Inslee didn't make it easy for us, obsessed as he was with a single issue.)

In 2016 I was begging the DNC to replace Hillary (with Biden ) and Dopers were suggesting I go back to 7th grade and take Civics again. But I'm doing the same thing now, 4 years later! :

If we had a good champion waiting in the bullpen, Biden should stand aside. The problem is: We don't have a champion. (The R's are lacking also; the only one on the 2016 stage who seemed Presidential was the right-winger Kasich. What the Hell has happened to America? There isn't a single Senator on either side with the integrity and charisma of John McCain — and that's not an over-high bar to hurdle.)


I saw this in a thread about Biden's VP choice:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lamoral View Post
... Two, and more importantly: he failed to take into account the fact that the tide of current events in the months leading up to the election could potentially shape a stellar VP choice who would then be locked out because it might be a man. Let's say that in the next few months, one of the state governors does an absolutely amazing job of rising to the occasion, truly distinguishing that state's mitigation efforts above all the others. Let's say just hypothetically that Jay Inslee, for instance, in the course of governorship during this pandemic, comes up with some kind of amazingly creative and effective plan that leads to a situation when, after the initial dust has settled in a few months, the whole country is looking at Washington State and saying, "wow, they did something right - their response to the virus was head and shoulders above the rest of the country."

Imagine this is a poker game. It's Hold 'em. Biden has his cards. The coronavirus is the flop. The mitigation efforts are the turn. The resolution is the river. But wait, none of that matters because Biden folded as soon as he got his cards.
Time is running out, but if a real champion does emerge (Inslee or whoever), do NOT make him the VP candidate. Biden should stand aside and let the Champion run for the Big Job.
  #242  
Old 04-16-2020, 03:02 AM
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... Time is running out, but if a real champion does emerge (Inslee or whoever), do NOT make him the VP candidate. Biden should stand aside and let the Champion run for the Big Job.
Standing aside will be trivial to execute: "My doctor informs me my health is only 95% of what it once was." I think he'll be believed.
  #243  
Old 04-16-2020, 11:20 AM
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Any Governor dealing with COVID 19 is in no way to going to run for Vice President. Because all indications indicate states are going to be dealing with this through the summer, if not later. A Governor taking time off to campaign would be a TERRIBLE look.

Also, do you want African-Americans to be completely pissed off by the Democratic party? Because replacing the candidate they came out to vote for in droves in the primary is exactly the way to do that.
  #244  
Old 04-16-2020, 11:14 PM
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This is trumps only path to victory:

https://www.vox.com/2020/4/15/212220...virus-pandemic
Kentucky’s heavily Republican legislature voted Tuesday to require voters to show a government-issued photo ID, overriding Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear’s veto in the process.

Meanwhile, if a Kentucky voter heads to the state’s webpage hoping to learn how to obtain such an ID, they will encounter a message telling them ID-issuing offices are closed.


Strict voter ID laws are increasingly common in Republican-controlled states, and left-leaning groups like students, low-income voters, and voters of color are especially less likely to have the ID that these laws require. Although voter ID’s policy proponents often argue that the measure is necessary to combat voter fraud at the polls, such fraud is so rare that it is virtually nonexistent.
  #245  
Old 04-17-2020, 09:24 AM
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Biden said he “would consider announcing some cabinet members before the election,” but clarified that he hasn’t “made that commitment” yet. Still, he signaled that he has a good idea of who would fill the positions.

“If the Lord Almighty said ‘Joe, I tell you what. You have to decide in three hours what your cabinet is or you’re going to be bounced out of the race,’ I could write down who could be in the cabinet,” He said. “There are at least two or three people qualified for every one of those positions.”

“I have had literally several hundred serious, serious players who have held positions in every department in the federal government who have said, including some Republicans, who have said if you win, I want to come back. I’m ready to serve,” he said.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...eed_story.html

I like the sound of that. Rebuilding a strong and qualified administrative state is the first thing he should do. Trump has decimated that with vacancies left unfilled, a revolving door of "acting secretaries" and his closest advisor seems to be his son in law.
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