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  #51  
Old 03-30-2020, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Mike Mabes View Post
Trump's approval rating is up most among those who don't vote

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/29/polit...eek/index.html

I also think that there is nothing that can happen now that will cause it to go up any further, and a lot that will cause it to go down.
Looks like he's leveled off.
  #52  
Old 03-30-2020, 01:34 PM
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Without looking at polls, does anyone know a soul that voted for Hillary in 2016 that would flip to Donald in 2020? I personally don't, but I wager that the number of Donald-Biden voters is larger than the number of Hillary-Donald voters.
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Old 03-30-2020, 02:29 PM
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Without looking at polls, does anyone know a soul that voted for Hillary in 2016 that would flip to Donald in 2020? I personally don't, but I wager that the number of Donald-Biden voters is larger than the number of Hillary-Donald voters.
I know quite a few seniors that voted for Trump out of major distrust/dislike of Hillary that plan to vote against Trump this time. Hell some of them said they would vote for Sanders over Trump this time, Biden made it easy for them. It is part of what gives me hopes that the Dems can flip Florida back. Florida & Michigan would be enough to beat Trump in the Electoral College.

I do not know anyone that voted for Hillary that is now planning to vote for Trump, but do know 1 person that voted for Hillary that will not vote for Sanders. He'll vote for Biden though.
  #54  
Old 04-01-2020, 10:21 AM
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Fresh batch of polls today:
4 polls for Trump's approval show from 0 to 7% disapproval. The only poll to show a tie for Trump's approval, shows Biden ahead of him by 4%.
  #55  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:07 PM
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There are several types of people who like Trump. Independents have been disillusioned, but he is a genius at simply pivoting away from previous embarrassments and playing to his bubble.

And in some rural areas, a lot of people simply didnít feel the initial need for social isolation. It felt like a big city problem, because initially it was. Even as time has marched on, Trump has been blaming others and changing the goalposts. It works as long as people prefer him to the alternative. Certainly his direct style is different and involving. One would be foolish to count him out early regardless of his proclivities.
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  #56  
Old 04-01-2020, 07:58 PM
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One thing that I'll note is that the media is very poor at creating a summary of information that is:

1) Even minimally historical.
2) Objective and intelligent.
3) Provides cites.
4) Of a length that a reasonable human would actually read.

If you want to find a news article that even goes so far as to point out Trump's tweet on March 9th, which implies a fatality rate of 1.5m deaths, that the President's force for providing aid to the nation in a pandemic (the CDC) seems to have given up trying to make any real effort at testing on March 13th and seems to take a few days just to find out what its own group's numbers are, that there's no indication that the President made any effort to start production of more respirators, temporary hospitals, etc. until late March despite having been warned of the matter since at least mid-January, still refuses to organize a national stay-at-home policy, no policy to limit gasoline at pumps to enforce such an order, no policy to pro-actively identify at risk locations (counties, elder homes, etc.) and start getting them materials and aid in advance, nor otherwise to organize much of anything at the national level. We'll bypass discussions on the timeline of Trump shutting down air travel, and his relatively arbitrary choices of locations, since I don't feel like Googling it all up.

And let's take, for example, the President's own desire to keep the country running during the epidemic, let's envision an approach to that, based on reality:

1) Travel from Eastern Asia should be stopped early, to try and stop transmission of the disease to the US starting at least by early February. Particular attention should be paid attention to locations where lots of Chinese would have been traveling (Seattle, San Francisco, New York), possibly with restrictions on travel out of those places. Eastern Asia should include Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea, etc.
2) As soon as community spread was discovered and Europe started to explode, it would have been clear that further travel restrictions were pointless. At this point, your focus is on protecting at-risk groups, the elderly, overweight, people with chronic illnesses, smokers, and vapers.
3) Having done this, you start implementing policies to allow elderly homes to receive rations and supplies through a decontaminated process, and ensure that the people who work there are provided with resources to allow them to live in a semi-quarantine and take care of their families. Obviously, this will be expensive to organize but, still, far better than having to bail out the entire economy, if you can allow businesses to continue to run.
4) For other at-risk groups, homeless would probably be a large subset. Special programs should be set up to encourage them to shelter at temporary facilities, in the major cities.
5) And for the remaining at-risk people, with day jobs, special incentives should be provided to allow them to work from home or take an extended absence for the next few months.
6) Given that it's only a very small percentage of the population who are significantly at-risk and who also work for a living and can't telecommute, you can effectively allow the disease to spread through the country without significant impact to the economy, without significant loss of life. There is a benefit to getting people immune to it as fast as possible to provide herd immunity to the at-risk groups.

In essence, Trump screwed himself by not pivoting to "circle the wagons" early and allowing shelter-at-home to spread across the nation, without central leadership of the effort. As a result, while we have slowed the spread of the disease, protection of the at-risk groups and not-so-at-risk groups is not differentiated, so everyone is still getting hit - just at a slower pace - and we've had to shut off large segments of the economy.

To be sure, the "circle the wagons" strategy might not have worked, just as we can say that step 1 above would have failed anyways, and there are probably other strategies as well that might have been reasonable. But these are all strategies and plans. There are bad strategies, to be sure, and it's a bit subjective which are in the good bucket and which are in the bad. Having no strategy at all is always a bad strategy. It would be impossible to make the argument that Trump ever has had any strategy beyond being occasionally dragged into doing things at the begging of his advisers.
  #57  
Old 04-01-2020, 09:47 PM
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the real test will be when coronavirus moves out of major "blue" cities like New York, Chicago, LA, and Detroit, and into mid-size and smaller cities in places like Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and Ohio. Even in New Orleans, which itself is mostly run by a decades-old Democratic machine, COVID is now rapidly spreading in very Republican Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes. Trump will only get so much mileage blaming Democrats. His antics will be funny right up until the time they see bodies being stuffed into refrigerated trucks.
  #58  
Old 04-01-2020, 10:26 PM
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the real test will be when coronavirus moves out of major "blue" cities like New York, Chicago, LA, and Detroit, and into mid-size and smaller cities in places like Indiana, Missouri, West Virginia, and Ohio. Even in New Orleans, which itself is mostly run by a decades-old Democratic machine, COVID is now rapidly spreading in very Republican Jefferson and St. Tammany Parishes. Trump will only get so much mileage blaming Democrats. His antics will be funny right up until the time they see bodies being stuffed into refrigerated trucks.
Polling about Trump now is like discussing the full effects of World War 2 in 1939 or planning for the coming economic fallout in 1929.

Trump is finished. Kaput. Gone.
  #59  
Old 04-02-2020, 05:14 AM
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He bragged that he could shoot a person on Fifth Ave. What about when hundreds of people just start dropping dead on Fifth Ave.?
  #60  
Old 04-02-2020, 07:35 AM
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Polling about Trump now is like discussing the full effects of World War 2 in 1939 or planning for the coming economic fallout in 1929.

Trump is finished. Kaput. Gone.
Such optimism!
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  #61  
Old 04-02-2020, 07:53 AM
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Trump needs a minimum of 43% of the vote to have a real chance. Keep in mind that in some places (California, New York, Washington, etc) that number will be driven down by off-the-charts hatred for the bastard. He can survive the EV contest if he maintains mid-40s polling. But a dip below that, and he's fighting for his political life even with the electoral college.

That said, we're kind of assuming that there won't be serious disruption at the polls, and with COVID, all bets are off. It's hard to know what numbers are going to finish Donald off. I've believed for some time that we won't know Trump is finished until his support collapses among blue collar whites. It's the white vote that got him into office, and it might be the white vote that is needed to put his political corpse into the ground.
  #62  
Old 04-02-2020, 11:03 PM
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There are times when Trump seems more human and reasonable, and I can say, "OK, I see your reasoning," like in some of these COVID press conferences, like ventilators being as complicated as cars, and he can't just get orgs to whip them up out of nowhere, or when he makes the remark that America as a nation deeply needs to work, have a job, and we're not designed to sit at home, this to explain his dragging his feet on the COVID response. I say: OK, I can see that. Thanks for giving me that insight. (But that doesn't excuse bad decisions.) Remember, folks imbibing the right-leaning channels (well, really, Fox) only see the best of him.

Speaking of Fox, here's a rundown of their (et al) various gymnastics in trying to spin blame away from the administration over the shoddy US coronavirus response. Unfortunately it's by the New York Times, which means the people who most need to read it and think about it, won't. Hyperpolarization yields more of the same. (Alternate link.)
  #63  
Old 04-03-2020, 02:12 AM
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3. The un and under educated at or below the poverty line who - for reasons beyond me other than good ole racism - have been brainwashed to think Trump cares for the poor and their well being. I truly believe they are just too stupid to understand otherwise.

It is group three that think Trump is the greatest POTUS ever - even now - and it is both scary, fascinating and embarassing as a citizen of this country.

I absolutely believe that Trump is of average to below average IQ and this group 3 of voters believe they relate to him. Trump is not IQ smart but he may be the best showman, swindler, con man since P.T. Barnum... in that regard, he is actually world class.
Agree, but I would emphasize that he's stupid in a popular way.
If he went on and on about Area 51 or crystals or something, that only appeals to a small demographic, everyone else would see him as an idiot.
Instead, his biases, his ignorance and logical fallacies are the same ones a huge chunk of the public share. He's an everyman idiot, and he's leveraged the ignorant / bigoted vote in a whole new way.

And it's the same with this crisis. Most people know little about viruses or epidemics and feel it makes sense what Trump did. Block people coming directly from China (which I'll concede was a good step, not saying everything needs to be wrong) but do no other preparation at all, because it's only, like, 5 people with the virus. How big can it get?
When New York requests thousands of ventilators "What the hell, where did that come from? You guys must be selling them!". Many people can relate to these kinds of sentiments, so he's saying what they're thinking.

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I see most democrats believing that this pandemic will sink Trump but I - SADLY - am almost certain he will win re-election.
Yep. With the existing dynamics of the media and the two parties, and Biden as the Dem nominee, I'd say it's about 70:30 Trump gets reelected.
  #64  
Old 04-03-2020, 06:03 AM
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There are times when Trump seems more human and reasonable, and I can say, "OK, I see your reasoning," like in some of these COVID press conferences, like ventilators being as complicated as cars, and he can't just get orgs to whip them up out of nowhere, or when he makes the remark that America as a nation deeply needs to work, have a job, and we're not designed to sit at home, this to explain his dragging his feet on the COVID response. I say: OK, I can see that. Thanks for giving me that insight....
Listen to yourself. One of the biggest problems with trump is that his behavior 99% of the time is so bad/stupid/destructive and our standards have become so low that if he manages to convey one forkful of pudding to his mouth without stabbing himself in the eye, we're ready to pat him on the back and say, "well done!" as if he were a chimpanzee learning table manners.

Obama was raked over the coals for wearing a TAN SUIT, FFS. Hillary was deemed unfit for office when she wobbled on her feet a bit. Joe Biden stutters (like he has all his life) and there are cries of "dementia! Alzheimer's!"
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(But that doesn't excuse bad decisions.) Remember, folks imbibing the right-leaning channels (well, really, Fox) only see the best of him.
....
There is no "best of him." His "best" is acting temporarily normal. His "best" is refraining for a few minutes from lying, insulting someone, bragging on himself, praising the world's criminal dictators, and did I mention LYING? This is his best.
  #65  
Old 04-03-2020, 12:36 PM
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Without looking at polls, does anyone know a soul that voted for Hillary in 2016 that would flip to Donald in 2020? I personally don't, but I wager that the number of Donald-Biden voters is larger than the number of Hillary-Donald voters.
Yes, I know several former never Trumpers who have become Trump supporters because:

Tax Cuts
SCOTUS nominations

These things helped sometimes and hurt sometimes:
Trade
Immigration
Killing that Iranian general

Some of them are backing away from him right now.
  #66  
Old 04-03-2020, 12:41 PM
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His antics will be funny right up until the time they see bodies being stuffed into refrigerated trucks.
Umm

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/fe...ues-2020-04-01
  #67  
Old 04-03-2020, 01:01 PM
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when he makes the remark that America as a nation deeply needs to work, have a job, and we're not designed to sit at home, this to explain his dragging his feet on the COVID response. I say: OK, I can see that. Thanks for giving me that insight. (But that doesn't excuse bad decisions.) Remember, folks imbibing the right-leaning channels (well, really, Fox) only see the best of him.
That's the thing. A more timely response would have prevented the need for a shutdown, it would have saved hundreds of thousands of lives and prevented the huge recession that we are heading into right now. To take the korea example:

Korea started screening travelers at airports in January, your temperature was taken at three different checkpoints before getting on a plane and at 2 different checkpoints before leaving the airport.
Koreans started wearing masks and practicing social distancing .

On January 20th the first case of COVID19 was diagnosed in korea (the same day that the first case was diagnosed in the USA).

On February 4th, they created a test and effectively commandeered korean factories and started manufacturing test kits and had tested

When someone got diagnosed with COVID19, they used their Cell phone GPS history to publicize where they had been and then scoured everyone else's GPS history to track down and test anyone that might have been in contact with that person within the last 72 hours.

By February 26th korea had tested 46,000 people. America had tested 426 people.

Korea has this more or less under control and can fight any outbreaks on a rapid response basis. There have been 165 deaths due to COVID19. This number will inch higher but their current practices makes it unlikely that they will see anything close to what we will see here.

Korean society is generally less outraged by the notion that he government is using the GPS on your phone to track down people who might be infected to test them. Some even see it as a miracle of modern technology. I suspect it would go down like a lead brick in this country.

Our rugged individualism and anti-authoritarian inclinations helps us preserve our democracy but the tree of freedom is demand quite a bit of blood this time around.
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Old 04-03-2020, 01:20 PM
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Yes, I know several former never Trumpers who have become Trump supporters because:

Tax Cuts
Would have happened with any Republican president, including if Trump had ever been impeached from office since Mike Pence would also fall under the heading of "any Republican president". Or does someone think that Mike Pence would be like, "Oh m'lordy! No, no we must keep those taxes in place! I will not listen to the cries of my kinsfolk in Congress!"?

More importantly, while members of the White House were involved in the discussion, Trump himself was not leading it and near-abouts destroyed the whole thing by trying to strap wall funding to the issue.

He did, in fact, cause the ObamaCare repeal to fail through that and also by boosting the crazy wing of the party, so that they felt more comfortable opposing the centrists. If Trump had simply kept his yap shut, the Republican party would have been able to get rid of the hated Obama healthcare package.

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SCOTUS nominations
The previous holders died under a Republican president. Unless one claims that Trump murdered them, this has little to do with Trump. And if one does make that claim, it makes no sense that he would have murdered the Republican judges and maintained a status quo from before his election.

One might also note that Trump was trying to nominate his sister and Fox newscasters to the Supreme Court. The selection of people that we got is thanks to Mitch McConnell and Don McGahn, not Donald Trump. And Don McGahn has gone on the record to tell us that Trump is a fuckin' moron who would screw the nation over on any given day if it weren't for everyone and their brother ignoring him and stopping him. This is also what every other person has said, from Omarosa to John Kelly.

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-03-2020 at 01:25 PM.
  #69  
Old 04-03-2020, 02:06 PM
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Interestingly, Rasmussen, the usually Trump friendly poll has him dropping and at a low.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub..._index_history
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Old 04-03-2020, 03:32 PM
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Listen to yourself. One of the biggest problems with trump is that his behavior 99% of the time is so bad/stupid/destructive and our standards have become so low that if he manages to convey one forkful of pudding to his mouth without stabbing himself in the eye, we're ready to pat him on the back and say, "well done!" as if he were a chimpanzee learning table manners.
Oh boy. This probably requires more finesse than I can muster, but I'll try.

I totally understand your anger, and I'll "listen" however much is necessary. My concern is that such responses need to be weighed against creating orthodoxies, inhibiting people from attempting reasonable explanations of what "the other side" sees in Trump and Trumpiness, which is crucial to answering the OP and, I think, for the health of threads like this.

The hyperpartisanship has gotten so bad that each side has started to see the other as a "dangerous threat." That "excuses" to the "other side" just about everything you're complaining about--any tactic is OK in the barfight. "Dippy-dopey" Trump becomes their prince charming. The partisan doom loop starts to loosen (get better) if everyone without a life-or-death stake in the political process takes a deep breath and for a few minutes, however odious the exercise is, puts themselves in the other side's shoes. (Again, that may well be impossible if you're deeply involved over certain issues. Totally understandable.)

If you don't have a life-or-death stake, try saying each of the following sentences to yourself five times (top of my head), then think about how Trump addresses such concerns:
  • I'm afraid and angry about losing my cultural majority in this country.
  • I live paycheck to paycheck, like 80% of Americans, and I have a job that's threatened by [immigration, outsourcing, technological replacement]. (pre-COVID, at least)
  • I feel less powerful now than I did ten years ago, and I feel like family and community bonds are crumbling. I want to go back to the way things were.

Then you've got to consider value systems (very much differ between sides, and may well be hard-wired). Then you've got to detangle advocacy from analysis. Just because a poster is bringing up those points, doesn't mean they support that POV. You can't well separate the diseased tissue from the healthy in hyperpartisanville without undestanding where the other side is coming from, and seeing things through the lenses of their value system. That lack of discernment is one of the very things Trump exploits.
  #71  
Old 04-03-2020, 03:49 PM
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There are times when Trump seems more human and reasonable, and I can say, "OK, I see your reasoning," like in some of these COVID press conferences, like ventilators being as complicated as cars, and he can't just get orgs to whip them up out of nowhere, or when he makes the remark that America as a nation deeply needs to work, have a job, and we're not designed to sit at home, this to explain his dragging his feet on the COVID response. I say: OK, I can see that. Thanks for giving me that insight. (But that doesn't excuse bad decisions.)
Trump is, for the first time in his presidency, actually dealing with a matter in a real and personal way rather than (for the best that I can tell) goofing off and trying to reenact House of Cards.

The positive points that you mention are true, but if we're realistic about what a President of the United States (e.g., the most powerful person in the world) should be like, we should note that Trump sounds human and reasonable because he is at long last - three years into his presidency, and dealing with a crisis that is going to kill millions - listening to people who actually know what they're talking about and relaying what they're saying to him somewhat honestly.

Woohoo. Why couldn't he have listened to experts and said things human and reasonable in all the time until now? Why is the most powerful person in the world a person who couldn't have thought, "Hm, building this stuff is complicated. It's now January. This is going to keep getting worse for 4-5 months according to my experts. Maybe I should start issuing executive orders to get stuff built now, rather than waiting to April to do so."

Vladimir Putin just sent us a bunch of supplies. You can bet your ass that he spun up production several months ago, and thanks to that he has enough gear ready to go that he can save his own country and still buy some sweet deals off desperate nations.

"Human and reasonable" is a damn low bar. And it follows on a long period of not that.

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-03-2020 at 03:50 PM.
  #72  
Old 04-06-2020, 10:28 AM
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Would have happened with any Republican president, including if Trump had ever been impeached from office since Mike Pence would also fall under the heading of "any Republican president". Or does someone think that Mike Pence would be like, "Oh m'lordy! No, no we must keep those taxes in place! I will not listen to the cries of my kinsfolk in Congress!"?
Yeah. They weren't so sure it would happen under Trump.

They now see him as a vehicle to more victories that will help them advance their agenda.

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More importantly, while members of the White House were involved in the discussion, Trump himself was not leading it and near-abouts destroyed the whole thing by trying to strap wall funding to the issue.

He did, in fact, cause the ObamaCare repeal to fail through that and also by boosting the crazy wing of the party, so that they felt more comfortable opposing the centrists. If Trump had simply kept his yap shut, the Republican party would have been able to get rid of the hated Obama healthcare package.

The previous holders died under a Republican president. Unless one claims that Trump murdered them, this has little to do with Trump. And if one does make that claim, it makes no sense that he would have murdered the Republican judges and maintained a status quo from before his election.

One might also note that Trump was trying to nominate his sister and Fox newscasters to the Supreme Court. The selection of people that we got is thanks to Mitch McConnell and Don McGahn, not Donald Trump. And Don McGahn has gone on the record to tell us that Trump is a fuckin' moron who would screw the nation over on any given day if it weren't for everyone and their brother ignoring him and stopping him. This is also what every other person has said, from Omarosa to John Kelly.
Can you point me to any source where Trump tried to nominate his own sister to the court? She was elevated to the 3rd circuit by Bill Clinton. Can you point to some source characterizing her as a Fox Newscaster?

At this point you are basically just making excuses why the "never trumper's" reasons for now supporting trump would not be good enough for you. They're good enough for them. It doesn't really matter if you approve of their reasoning.

I'm sure that conservatives have a host of reasons why former Bernie or Bust supporters should not support Biden.
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Old 04-06-2020, 01:35 PM
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Can you point me to any source where Trump tried to nominate his own sister to the court?
I cannot. Apparently, I was mislead by Ted Cruz.

https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...-pro-abortion/

I watched the Bloomberg interview and it is clear that Trump was simply being polite to his sister and had no intention of considering her.

I also note that he seemed to be able to talk somewhat coherently at the time. I find that interesting since, for example, if you listen to Giuliani talking in his recorded phone call that the press overheard, he's also coherent and logical. It's once he's required to make absurd lies to cover his ass from the cops that he starts to sound like he's a drunk who just came in from the bar.

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Can you point to some source characterizing her as a Fox Newscaster?
No, but that's not what I said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/...t-trump-236488

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At this point you are basically just making excuses why the "never trumper's" reasons for now supporting trump would not be good enough for you. They're good enough for them. It doesn't really matter if you approve of their reasoning.
Let's say that I organize a Meetup to trade tips on living healthy. For whatever reason, 80% of the people who show up are morbidly obese and start using the forum as a way to swap recipes on how to prepare multi-gallon, extra mayo Mac and Cheese for pre-sleep light eating.

I'm certainly outvoted. But they're still doing everything wrong, both in terms of what they were supposed to do, and in larger terms of how they are living life if they had any interest in the subject in which they were participating. And that's not subjective. There are certainly areas of healthy living that are subjective, but this particular instance is not and it requires insanity to believe otherwise. And it's not unreasonable to say that a group of people matching the above description are, in at least one field of their life, objectively crazy and objectively in the wrong.

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I'm sure that conservatives have a host of reasons why former Bernie or Bust supporters should not support Biden.
I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. You can come up with reasons for anything, from reasonable to outlandish. Most of those will be subjective. And I wouldn't generally expect a partisan person to oppose someone on the opposite side of the fence to have reasons that are honest nor objective. Likewise, I wouldn't expect a partisan to support a candidate for reasons that are honest and objective.

And, since you have thrown in something that is largely irrelevant, I'll do the same and say:

You do not have to be stupid and buy into falsehoods to believe in small, local government, fiscal responsibility, personal responsibility, etc. That everyone on the right seems to have decided that this is so, as best I can tell, has more to do with the matter that when you're getting older and you're still in fairly good health, and you're bored and sitting at home all day with not enough to do to keep your mind satiated, it becomes fun to think of the world as being like a real 24, House of Cards, or Homeland and you start seeking out and rewarding media sources for presenting a world that falls into that presentation.

That's bullcrap. If you're bored and want life to be exciting, don't hire an idiot conspiracy theorist like yourself to office, go and learn to parachute or something. Go back to work. Find a better hobby than mowing the lawn. Turning into a crazy nutbag just makes you look like a loon, and it's depressing to watch.

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-06-2020 at 01:36 PM.
  #74  
Old 04-06-2020, 03:58 PM
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Interestingly, Rasmussen, the usually Trump friendly poll has him dropping and at a low.

https://www.rasmussenreports.com/pub..._index_history
Rasmussen now even lower, down to 44% which in the 538 adjusted world brings it to 38%.

Apparently taking COVID seriously helps him with the normos, but the right wing really does not like it.
  #75  
Old 04-06-2020, 05:07 PM
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I cannot. Apparently, I was mislead by Ted Cruz.

https://www.politifact.com/factcheck...-pro-abortion/

I watched the Bloomberg interview and it is clear that Trump was simply being polite to his sister and had no intention of considering her.
To be fair, you would probably prefer her to his last few nominations. She is a republican but a north eastern rockerfeller republican.

Quote:
I also note that he seemed to be able to talk somewhat coherently at the time. I find that interesting since, for example, if you listen to Giuliani talking in his recorded phone call that the press overheard, he's also coherent and logical. It's once he's required to make absurd lies to cover his ass from the cops that he starts to sound like he's a drunk who just came in from the bar.

No, but that's not what I said.

https://www.politico.com/story/2017/...t-trump-236488
I'm not really sure that is a cite that supports the notion that Trump was going to try and nominate Napolitano. It seems like wishful thinking on Napolitano's part.

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Let's say that I organize a Meetup to trade tips on living healthy. For whatever reason, 80% of the people who show up are morbidly obese and start using the forum as a way to swap recipes on how to prepare multi-gallon, extra mayo Mac and Cheese for pre-sleep light eating.

I'm certainly outvoted. But they're still doing everything wrong, both in terms of what they were supposed to do, and in larger terms of how they are living life if they had any interest in the subject in which they were participating. And that's not subjective. There are certainly areas of healthy living that are subjective, but this particular instance is not and it requires insanity to believe otherwise. And it's not unreasonable to say that a group of people matching the above description are, in at least one field of their life, objectively crazy and objectively in the wrong.
Did Trump nominate well qualified conservative justices? Yes
Were the never Trumpers confident that he would do this? No
His first nomination is when the tides turned for a lot of never trumpers.

Did Trump push through a tax cut for the rich in his first year as President? Yes.
Were the never Trumpers confident he would do something like this? No
He got a ton of support from rich people and corporations when he cut their taxes. A lot of those never turmpers were rich people.

And trump is very electable (at least up until this coronavirus thing happened)

Quote:
I'm not sure what that has to do with anything. You can come up with reasons for anything, from reasonable to outlandish. Most of those will be subjective. And I wouldn't generally expect a partisan person to oppose someone on the opposite side of the fence to have reasons that are honest nor objective. Likewise, I wouldn't expect a partisan to support a candidate for reasons that are honest and objective.

And, since you have thrown in something that is largely irrelevant, I'll do the same and say:

You do not have to be stupid and buy into falsehoods to believe in small, local government, fiscal responsibility, personal responsibility, etc. That everyone on the right seems to have decided that this is so, as best I can tell, has more to do with the matter that when you're getting older and you're still in fairly good health, and you're bored and sitting at home all day with not enough to do to keep your mind satiated, it becomes fun to think of the world as being like a real 24, House of Cards, or Homeland and you start seeking out and rewarding media sources for presenting a world that falls into that presentation.

That's bullcrap. If you're bored and want life to be exciting, don't hire an idiot conspiracy theorist like yourself to office, go and learn to parachute or something. Go back to work. Find a better hobby than mowing the lawn. Turning into a crazy nutbag just makes you look like a loon, and it's depressing to watch.
I was pointing out that it is wishful thinking to think that the Never Trumpers have largely remained never trumpers. And the never trumpers have good reason to change their stance if SCOTUS and taxes are high on their list of priorities.
  #76  
Old 04-06-2020, 05:52 PM
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To be fair, you would probably prefer her to his last few nominations. She is a republican but a north eastern rockerfeller republican.
Telling me her party affiliation makes me like her as much as knowing that she has her heart more towards the left rather than the right side of her body. Good for her.

Quote:
I'm not really sure that is a cite that supports the notion that Trump was going to try and nominate Napolitano. It seems like wishful thinking on Napolitano's part.
People who we can conclusively say were Trump-and-Trump-alone hires:

Omarosa Manigault
Heather Nauert
Michael Cohen
Michael Flynn

One might also mention his history of careful selection in business partners:

https://www.thedailybeast.com/trumps...uted-for-fraud
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ulrich_Marseille
https://theblacksea.eu/stories/footb...-of-the-turks/

Saying that because Napolitano is a Fox news host, he couldn't possibly ever get the job is not realistic. To be sure, Trump might have just been buttering him up. But I see no real reason to think that he wouldn't have gone ahead with the guy if the Senate had said that they were willing to buy it.

Paul Ryan's message, leaving the government, was that the last two years of his service were devoted to stopping calamity from unfolding each and every day, on the basis of the inane things that Trump would suggest. It's what Don McGahn said. It's what John Bolton seems to have wanted to say. It's what John Kelly said. It's what Omarosa Manigault, of all people, said.

From the man's history, I would put the weight of probability on their being honest. A disgruntled former employee (which Paul Ryan isn't) still complains about the things that were actually sucky about their former place of employment. They don't invent something out of wholecloth.

Quote:
I was pointing out that it is wishful thinking to think that the Never Trumpers have largely remained never trumpers.
I didn't mention them. If you thought that I was, and replied to me about them thinking that I was discussing them, then you misunderstood something that I wrote. I have no wishes towards nor against them and didn't raise any. I have no opinion on whether Never Trumpers have stayed the course or not and have no particular interest in the subject.
  #77  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:07 AM
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Without looking at polls, does anyone know a soul that voted for Hillary in 2016 that would flip to Donald in 2020?
It doesn't matter! Elections in the US are not won by changing people's minds. It's all about motivating your supporters to turn out to vote, and discouraging or blocking your opponent's supporters from voting.

Trump is doing exactly what he needs to win: portraying everything (including COVID-19) as a partisan issue, and telling his supporters that they are under attack by liberals and the media. And the media is doing a remarkably good job of enforcing that attitude.

Last edited by scr4; 04-07-2020 at 09:08 AM.
  #78  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:17 AM
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Finally a Florida poll, UNF Biden 46, Trump 40 Biden +6
UNF is University of North Florida. No clue how objective they are.

But Florida polls have been in short supply and it is hopeful that Trump is trailing. If Florida turns from Trump, Biden only needs to pick up one other good size state to take the electoral college.

Michigan and/or Ohio are pretty likely flips.
  #79  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:28 AM
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If Florida goes blue, the national climate will probably have been such that several other swing-y states also go blue, with larger margins. IIRC, the chances of Florida being the tipping point state are quite low, so consistent good polling for the Democrats in Florida would be an extremely good sign.
  #80  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:30 AM
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Of the states Biden needs to flip, I'd rate them in this order of likelihood:

Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Florida
Ohio

Get the first three and the other two become moot.

I believe the only issue will be the virus. DJT's rally around the flag bump was puny and is now fading. If the death toll goes over 200,000 I think he's toast. Everybody is going to know somebody who died, everybody will remember about the cases going to zero and how he had it contained.
  #81  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:34 AM
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Of the states Biden needs to flip, I'd rate them in this order of likelihood:

Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Florida
Ohio

Get the first three and the other two become moot.

I believe the only issue will be the virus. DJT's rally around the flag bump was puny and is now fading. If the death toll goes over 200,000 I think he's toast. Everybody is going to know somebody who died, everybody will remember about the cases going to zero and how he had it contained.
I think AZ and NC might be more likely than FL and OH.
  #82  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:36 AM
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I think AZ and NC might be more likely than FL and OH.
From polls I've seen Ohio has a good chance and Arizona is in play. What makes you think North Carolina, I haven't seen anything yet to support that?
  #83  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:42 AM
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I think AZ and NC might be more likely than FL and OH.
Perhaps, NC is getting to be a little more purple as is AZ. The AZ Senate race may boost some Democratic turnout there. If those two states flip, then the rout is on.
  #84  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:53 AM
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From polls I've seen Ohio has a good chance and Arizona is in play. What makes you think North Carolina, I haven't seen anything yet to support that?
The margin in NC was much smaller than OH in '16. Not FL, though -- I was misremembering that.
  #85  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:56 AM
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The margin in NC was much smaller than OH in '16. Not FL, though -- I was misremembering that.
Fair enough, but Ohio was a reaction to Clinton, Ohio likes Biden.They also voted Obama twice.
  #86  
Old 04-07-2020, 09:57 AM
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Fair enough, but Ohio was a reaction to Clinton, Ohio likes Biden.They also voted Obama twice.
IIRC, NC's polling for things like approval are also considerably better for the Democrats, lately, than OH. But no link handy -- this is from memory, so I could be wrong.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 04-07-2020 at 09:57 AM.
  #87  
Old 04-07-2020, 10:02 AM
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What makes me nervous about Ohio is they voted for a Republican governor and they have a history of election day issues like inequitable distribution of voting machines. A few cycles ago they refused to accept registration applications that were on the wrong weight of paper. They are certainly not known for fair play.
  #88  
Old 04-07-2020, 11:38 AM
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Telling me her party affiliation makes me like her as much as knowing that she has her heart more towards the left rather than the right side of her body. Good for her.
She is a pro-choice Republican. Remember when we used to have those?

Quote:
People who we can conclusively say were Trump-and-Trump-alone hires:

Omarosa Manigault
Heather Nauert
Michael Cohen
Michael Flynn
That is a really dumb comparison.

None of these people have been nominated to the Supreme Court.

Do you remember when Obama nominated a TV personality as Surgeon General?

Do you remember when Kal Penn worked in the white house as the Associate Director of the White House Office of Public Engagement?

These sort of appointments to position within the white house or positions that involve dealing with the press are not nearly the same thing as SCOTUS appointments.

BTW what federal appointment did Michael Cohen have?

What was wrong with Appointing Michael Flynn? He seemed qualified at the time.

Yes and how is that relevant to your assertion that Trump was going to nominate Fox News talking heads to the Supreme court?

Trump is taking advice from the heritage foundation (or some other conservative outfit) and conservatives like that.

Quote:
Saying that because Napolitano is a Fox news host, he couldn't possibly ever get the job is not realistic. To be sure, Trump might have just been buttering him up. But I see no real reason to think that he wouldn't have gone ahead with the guy if the Senate had said that they were willing to buy it.
He might nominate Barack Obama. Shit. Anything is possible in theory. But the fact remains that he never tried to nominate Napolitano. Conservatives have reason to be satisfied with his SCOTUS nominations.

Quote:
Paul Ryan's message, leaving the government, was that the last two years of his service were devoted to stopping calamity from unfolding each and every day, on the basis of the inane things that Trump would suggest. It's what Don McGahn said. It's what John Bolton seems to have wanted to say. It's what John Kelly said. It's what Omarosa Manigault, of all people, said.

From the man's history, I would put the weight of probability on their being honest. A disgruntled former employee (which Paul Ryan isn't) still complains about the things that were actually sucky about their former place of employment. They don't invent something out of wholecloth.
I agree Trump is a trainwreck but he is a trainwreck that is nominating solid conservative justices, pushing a conservative-ish agenda (see tax cuts for the rich and deregulation of industries that have repeatedly proven they need lots and lots of regulation) and most importantly HE IS ELECTABLE (or at least he seemed so until very recently.

Quote:
I didn't mention them. If you thought that I was, and replied to me about them thinking that I was discussing them, then you misunderstood something that I wrote. I have no wishes towards nor against them and didn't raise any. I have no opinion on whether Never Trumpers have stayed the course or not and have no particular interest in the subject.
Can you please explain your post 68 where you directly respond to my statement that

"Yes, I know several former never Trumpers who have become Trump supporters because:

Tax Cuts
SCOTUS nominations"

This entire subthread between you and me is about Never-Trumpers!!! This entire subthread is in response to my contention that there is in fact a group of voters that didn't vote for Trump in the last election that will vote for him this time around.

This conversation is NOT about whether or not Trump is a trainwreck. I think we both agree on that.
  #89  
Old 04-07-2020, 11:42 AM
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Without looking at polls, does anyone know a soul that voted for Hillary in 2016 that would flip to Donald in 2020?
I've seen quite a few comments on social media of "I voted for Obama and/or Clinton but now I'm voting Trump in 2020". Now, I suspect some of them are Trump/Republican voters who are deliberately trying to put up a guise of "blue switchovers" to encourage blue voters to jump ship too, but others may be genuine.
  #90  
Old 04-07-2020, 11:46 AM
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I think AZ and NC might be more likely than FL and OH.
I think AZ is at Biden+10 right now.
I suspect NC is is similarly situated

I would like to see polling in Georgia. I think Georgia might be in play and if Biden picks someone like Stacey Abrams. Just spitballing.
  #91  
Old 04-07-2020, 11:52 AM
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That is a really dumb comparison.

None of these people have been nominated to the Supreme Court.
So, I hire Britney Spears to be my lawyer:

"I've never really wanted to go to Japan. Simply because I don't like eating fish. And I know that's very popular out there in Africa." -Britney Spears

I ask her to take charge of paying off people who I have criminally, sexually assaulted and give her an unofficial role in my business, trying to organize my largest, multi-million dollar contracts with criminal dictators. You know, just a trivial position of no particular importance to my personal well-being, legal, nor financial position in the world.

Later, through unknown processes, I produce a list of people who I would want to see on the Supreme Court. They overall seem like reasonable, sane people.

Is this list the product of my mind, or the product of the minds of people who are wiser than me and who hold absolute veto over my choices?

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-07-2020 at 11:55 AM.
  #92  
Old 04-08-2020, 01:07 PM
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Rasmussen now even lower, down to 44% which in the 538 adjusted world brings it to 38%.

Apparently taking COVID seriously helps him with the normos, but the right wing really does not like it.
is my link not going to the latest page? I see 47% and 44% approval
  #93  
Old 04-08-2020, 01:12 PM
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Trumps Job approval fell a few points as of today's large batch of polls.

Code:
President Trump Job Approval	CNN	Approve 44, Disapprove 53	Disapprove +9
CNBC	Approve 46, Disapprove 43	Approve +3
Monmouth	Approve 46, Disapprove 49	Disapprove +3
Politico/Morning Consult	Approve 44, Disapprove 54	Disapprove +10
Rasmussen Reports	Approve 47, Disapprove 52	Disapprove +5
Economist/YouGov	Approve 45, Disapprove 53	Disapprove +8
General Election: Trump vs. Biden > Economist/YouGov > Biden 48, Trump 42 = Biden +6
  #94  
Old 04-08-2020, 01:16 PM
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is my link not going to the latest page? I see 47% and 44% approval
I would guess that Fiveyearlurker was assuming that if poll X goes down by Y, then FiveThirtyEight would also go down by Y.

Obviously, that's not how it works.
  #95  
Old 04-08-2020, 02:40 PM
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And now the descent has started.
  #96  
Old 04-08-2020, 03:23 PM
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There is a German variant of the Bobblehead (German: Wackeldackel) that became very popular here after it featured in a car ad on TV: the Wackel-Elvis!
If some of tanTrump's fiercest supporters think that they can make fun of environmentalist when they claim that their favourite animal is the nodding donkey, we can claim that the Wackeldackel is better and then call them Wackel-Elvis.
The wackeldackel is better!
  #97  
Old 04-08-2020, 03:59 PM
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And now the descent has started.
Down a point in just a couple of days. What could possibly cause it to go up again? A BOOMING economy, which he tweeted would happen when things are opened up again first of May? Which isn't happening all over the country anyway.
  #98  
Old 04-09-2020, 04:41 PM
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What could possibly cause it to go up again? A BOOMING economy, which he tweeted would happen when things are opened up again first of May? Which isn't happening all over the country anyway.
It doesn't have to actually happen. Trump just says it's happening, and they believe it. Trump's whole career and presidency have been entirely based on his bullshit claims and fabrications, and on his bullshit PR image. He's always found enough suckers to fall for it.
  #99  
Old 04-09-2020, 08:48 PM
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Why is President Trump's approval rating climbing?


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Originally Posted by Sage Rat View Post
I would guess that Fiveyearlurker was assuming that if poll X goes down by Y, then FiveThirtyEight would also go down by Y.

Obviously, that's not how it works.

Obviously, my post was on the 6th. When it was at 44%. It subsequently rose to 47% when you looked at it on the 7th. As you can see from the link.

Last edited by Fiveyearlurker; 04-09-2020 at 08:50 PM.
  #100  
Old 04-10-2020, 11:18 AM
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Obviously, my post was on the 6th. When it was at 44%. It subsequently rose to 47% when you looked at it on the 7th. As you can see from the link.
And it was never at 38%, as you suggested it should be, nor should it be since that's not how it works.
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