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  #101  
Old 04-10-2020, 11:21 AM
Fiveyearlurker is offline
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Originally Posted by Sage Rat View Post
I would guess that Fiveyearlurker was assuming that if poll X goes down by Y, then FiveThirtyEight would also go down by Y.

Obviously, that's not how it works.
And, if you click now (on 4/10), you'll see it's now even lower at 43%.

Rasmussen is currently one of Trump's worst polls.
  #102  
Old 04-10-2020, 01:32 PM
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Originally Posted by Sage Rat View Post
And it was never at 38%, as you suggested it should be, nor should it be since that's not how it works.
I never said it was:

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Originally Posted by Fiveyearlurker View Post
Rasmussen now even lower, down to 44% which in the 538 adjusted world brings it to 38%.

Apparently taking COVID seriously helps him with the normos, but the right wing really does not like it.
At the time of that post, Rasmussen had his approval at 44% and 538.com adjusts that down to 38%. Which is EXACTLY what I said (and linked to both) in that post. I'm not sure what you're arguing here.
  #103  
Old 04-10-2020, 05:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Fiveyearlurker View Post
I never said it was:

At the time of that post, Rasmussen had his approval at 44% and 538.com adjusts that down to 38%. Which is EXACTLY what I said (and linked to both) in that post. I'm not sure what you're arguing here.
On April 6th, the 538 tracker lists approval as 45.3% and disapproval at 49.6%. If you look at their entry for the Rasmussen poll, their input was 47%/51% and they adjusted that to 43%/52%.

Quote:
APR. 2-6
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research
C+
1,500 LV 0.46
47%
51%
43%
52%
If you look back through the entire length of the Trump approval rating, it hasn't been at 38% since 2018.

ETA: At any rate, I suppose I don't really care to figure out what you were looking at or were thinking and it's largely off topic.

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-10-2020 at 05:27 PM.
  #104  
Old 04-10-2020, 05:52 PM
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So, I hire Britney Spears to be my lawyer:

"I've never really wanted to go to Japan. Simply because I don't like eating fish. And I know that's very popular out there in Africa." -Britney Spears

I ask her to take charge of paying off people who I have criminally, sexually assaulted and give her an unofficial role in my business, trying to organize my largest, multi-million dollar contracts with criminal dictators. You know, just a trivial position of no particular importance to my personal well-being, legal, nor financial position in the world.

Later, through unknown processes, I produce a list of people who I would want to see on the Supreme Court. They overall seem like reasonable, sane people.

Is this list the product of my mind, or the product of the minds of people who are wiser than me and who hold absolute veto over my choices?
Wait, your original assertion was that Trump tired to nominate his sister (which you backed off from when you realized you were getting your facts from bad sources or misremembering what you heard) and he was nominating fox newscasters and once again you realize that you were wrong.

Why does it matter that the reason you were wrong is in part because Trump is taking advice from others on who to nominate? This is a feature not a flaw as far as the conservatives are concerned.
  #105  
Old 04-10-2020, 05:54 PM
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Down a point in just a couple of days. What could possibly cause it to go up again? A BOOMING economy, which he tweeted would happen when things are opened up again first of May? Which isn't happening all over the country anyway.
If he opens it up on the first of May it will be just in time to watch a second wave hit around election day.
  #106  
Old 04-10-2020, 07:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiveyearlurker View Post
At the time of that post, Rasmussen had his approval at 44% and 538.com adjusts that down to 38%. Which is EXACTLY what I said (and linked to both) in that post. I'm not sure what you're arguing here.
FWIW, I get what you're doing. I'm not sure how you arrive at the 38%, though.
  #107  
Old 04-11-2020, 08:40 AM
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FWIW, I get what you're doing. I'm not sure how you arrive at the 38%, though.
I don't arrive at 38%. Nate Silver does. Currently, Rasmussen has Trump at 43%. Fivethirtyeight.com adjusts that 43% to 37%, scroll down to the individual polls and look at Rasumussen which will show the 43% and the adjusted 37% (previously it was 44% to 38%).

My sole and only point was that, either number you use, Rasmussen is giving Trump his worst numbers they have given in quite some time.

And like before, if you click on this now, these are the numbers you will see. If you click on them in two days, they will be updated with whatever the polls are at the time.

Last edited by Fiveyearlurker; 04-11-2020 at 08:41 AM.
  #108  
Old 04-11-2020, 08:44 AM
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On April 6th, the 538 tracker lists approval as 45.3% and disapproval at 49.6%. If you look at their entry for the Rasmussen poll, their input was 47%/51% and they adjusted that to 43%/52%.



If you look back through the entire length of the Trump approval rating, it hasn't been at 38% since 2018.

ETA: At any rate, I suppose I don't really care to figure out what you were looking at or were thinking and it's largely off topic.
Because 538 usess three day averages, which update daily, while Rasmussen provides individual numbers. The 44% got folded into the April 2-6 numbers eventually. The numbers were what I said they were at the time I posted it. It updates every day. It was 44% to 38% at the time I posted that and is currently 43% down to 37%.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Skywatcher View Post
FWIW, I get what you're doing. I'm not sure how you arrive at the 38%, though.
I don't arrive at 38%. Nate Silver does. Currently, Rasmussen has Trump at 43%. Fivethirtyeight.com adjusts that 43% to 37% (previously it was 44% to 38%).

My sole and only point was that, either number you use, Rasmussen is giving Trump his worst numbers they have given in quite some time.

And like before, if you click on this now, these are the numbers you will see. If you click on them in two days, they will be updated with whatever the polls are at the time.

Last edited by Fiveyearlurker; 04-11-2020 at 08:47 AM.
  #109  
Old 04-14-2020, 10:18 AM
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Approval rating is now lower than it was three weeks ago. I propose changing the thread title to "Why was President Trump's approval rating climbing?"
  #110  
Old 04-14-2020, 11:20 AM
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Wait, your original assertion was that Trump tired to nominate his sister (which you backed off from when you realized you were getting your facts from bad sources or misremembering what you heard) and he was nominating fox newscasters and once again you realize that you were wrong.

Why does it matter that the reason you were wrong is in part because Trump is taking advice from others on who to nominate? This is a feature not a flaw as far as the conservatives are concerned.
I was wrong about his sister. It is speculative about whether he was serious about Napolitano but, as demonstrated by the fact that you needed to change your tack, more likely that he would have gone ahead with it than not, given his druthers. There's no reason to discount any particular inane possibility when it comes to Trump appointments. He has, factually, gone ahead with some of them and is currently at logger-heads with the Senate on quite a number of them since he has given up on trying to hire people who are capable or honest.

But anyways, yes, it is a feature of the system. And to give Trump credit for losing to the system is like giving majority credit to the lump of papier machier for the quality of a Jeff Dunham performance.

Last edited by Sage Rat; 04-14-2020 at 11:23 AM.
  #111  
Old 05-09-2020, 08:09 PM
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What part of it are you missing?


What part of of "Why is his approval rising?" are you not following?

We're losing a LOT LESS people than the experts thought we would be losing.... which means that we're doing a LOT BETTER than we thought we would be doing.

People also recognize that because of his policies, and the strength of the economy and job market, we went into the pandemic in just about the best economic position that you could possibly imagine.... which helps give us more cushion than we would have ever had if someone like Joe had been in charge the prior 3 years.

Last edited by Sdowiat; 05-09-2020 at 08:13 PM.
  #112  
Old 05-09-2020, 08:34 PM
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Well Sdowiat I think you've answered the OP, but not in the way you think.
You've reminded us all how some people are so in the trump camp they will ignore or handwave any evidence of a screw up on trump's part, even one that has resulted in tens of thousands of dead.

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Originally Posted by Sdowiat View Post
We're losing a LOT LESS people than the experts thought we would be losing.... which means that we're doing a LOT BETTER than we thought we would be doing.
The US is doing better than some projections, but a lot worse than others, like, I dunno, Trump's own predictions.

The US is one of the few countries at this point that has not definitively peaked in cases. It's already beaten Vietnam and we could be a long way off the worst of it.
It's unfathomable how anyone could suggest that this is a good result.

Quote:
People also recognize that because of his policies, and the strength of the economy and job market, we went into the pandemic in just about the best economic position that you could possibly imagine.... which helps give us more cushion than we would have ever had if someone like Joe had been in charge the prior 3 years.
The US economy was doing OK...I think even the left-wing media overstated how well. Stuff like "highest stock market ever" and "lowest black unemployment" are things almost every US president can say, because those are the long term trends.
Other indicators like salaries, debt, home ownership etc were not so positive.

Regardless it's all gone to shit right now, so I suggest the position you should be taking is a wait and see approach, not reflexively trying to positively spin a turd.
  #113  
Old 05-09-2020, 08:41 PM
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Regardless it's all gone to shit right now, so I suggest the position you should be taking is a wait and see approach, not reflexively trying to positively spin a turd.
538 has his aggregate approval rating almost as low as it was on St. Pat's Day.
  #114  
Old 05-09-2020, 09:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Sdowiat View Post
What part of of "Why is his approval rising?" are you not following?



We're losing a LOT LESS people than the experts thought we would be losing.... which means that we're doing a LOT BETTER than we thought we would be doing.



People also recognize that because of his policies, and the strength of the economy and job market, we went into the pandemic in just about the best economic position that you could possibly imagine.... which helps give us more cushion than we would have ever had if someone like Joe had been in charge the prior 3 years.
We may be losing less people than projected, but we're losing tons more than Trump predicted, and if we'd had a competent president, thousands of those people would presumably still be alive.

The fact that he keeps approval over 30% is staggering.
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