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  #101  
Old 04-02-2020, 07:40 AM
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Blue state America without red state America is western Europe. Red state America without blue state America is a third world shithole.
BTW, this is also radically incorrect - Blue State America is radically different from Western Europe. Notably, California has an incarcertaion rate of 581 per 100,000 while New York has 443. In comparison, the highest two in Western Europe are England/Wales at 148 and Spain at 144 (rest are even lower). Neither of those states has a UHC plan in place. Both are 'at will' employment states where a person can be fired for any reason as long as its not a specifically prohibited one.

While there are a good number of tiny countries in Western Europe, the larger countries that are the size of a US state or several states (like Germany, France, or Spain) are capable of meeting their basic functional needs without relying on the good graces of a region they hate. 'Blue State America' can't do this - one big example is that California (especially the densely populated deep blue areas) is dependent on other states for its water supply, and that's currently handled by an interstate compact. If California arrogantly flips off the nasty red states nearby (or the many 'red state regions' that water flows through), those states can cut off the water supply and cause virtually instant disaster for California's largest population centers.
  #102  
Old 04-02-2020, 07:47 AM
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I agree with your basic point, but will still offer a Nitpick. Five of the 51 "states" gave Trump less than 33.3% of the 2016 vote:
I'm including Johnson in the "Red State" vote. I should be saying "Red State" instead of "Trump", but I'm not going to count libertarians as Blue State voters.
  #103  
Old 04-02-2020, 10:17 AM
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I agree with your basic point, but will still offer a Nitpick. Five of the 51 "states" gave Trump less than 33.3% of the 2016 vote:
Dist_Columbia 4.1%
Hawaii 30.0%
Vermont 30.3%
California 31.6%
Massachusetts 32.8%
You can rephrase "more than 1/3 ... voted for Trump" to be "more than 1/3 of those who didn't vote for Johnson or Stein ... voted for Trump." Then, only Dist_Columbia and Hawaii would be exceptions.
I don't think 30% is significantly less than 33.3% (all right, 3.3% less). That's still 3 in every 10 people.
  #104  
Old 04-02-2020, 01:53 PM
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I don't think 30% is significantly less than 33.3% (all right, 3.3% less). That's still 3 in every 10 people.
It's not, in casual conversation most people will approximate 30% as 1/3 for simplicity, and no one has explained how what the huge difference is between having a country with 30% 'red staters' (a 'blue state' that secedes) vs 40% 'red staters' (how they're describing the US pre split).

Also I meant to point out before, DC isn't a state at all. Dragging in a city that is explicitly not a state state as a counterexample to something that I said about states is just absurd. It's especially so in a post that's focusing on the difference between 30% and 33%.
  #105  
Old 04-02-2020, 02:19 PM
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I thought there was a possibility the US might break up BEFORE the coronavirus. I don't think it's likely, but possible. The level of division is not sustainable, and I don't think a different president is going to make much of a difference.
  #106  
Old 04-02-2020, 03:19 PM
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Has there ever been a revolution or civil war where 100% of the people on one side or another supported the split? Of course not. There were plenty of Tories in colonial America who stayed loyal to England, for instance. And if they didn't like the idea of independence, well tough shit -- they were going along for the ride anyway.

When one party has painted the other as evil for the better part of a generation, it's only a matter of time before the other party follows suit. We're there now. If the schism is so severe it can't survive a challenge like we're facing now, it could very well be permanent. And how long before one side feels it's getting screwed and just won't take it anymore?

Will it break out along state lines? We should be so lucky. Otherwise it blows up neighborhood by neighborhood or house by house like Rwanda.
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  #107  
Old 04-02-2020, 03:47 PM
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I'm not even convinced we're going to have a legitimate presidential election this year. It's clear that the republican party is making a case for one-party rule, and it's willing to go to extremes to ensure that this happens. This is not going to be the last wave of COVID-19; there will in all likelihood be a second wave, which may hit right before the elections. Voters will be scared of going to the polls. And if Democrats win, it just gives Republicans an excuse to refuse to accept the legitimacy of the outcome.
  #108  
Old 04-02-2020, 03:53 PM
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  #109  
Old 04-02-2020, 03:59 PM
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Roll your virtual eyes all you like. It doesn't matter whether the prediction of illegitimate elections is true or not: it matters whether people believe it's true.

Say Biden wins, but in a climate where millions of voters are voting by mail for the first time. All you need is a small collection of Trump supporters with guns who genuinely believe that the election is stolen, and are willing to do something about it.

I would put the chances of that at way under 1% now, but by November we could well see a decent number of people who are (a) gun owners and (b) Trump supports who have (c) recently lost a family member to COVID-19. I'd argue that (b) suggests your critical thinking faculties aren't too heavily exercised at the best of times.

I don't think it's likely for a bunch of reasons, many covered in this thread. Mainly that people who are hungry aren't angry and the people who are angry aren't hungry. But to roll your eyes and dismiss it ignores an awful lot of history, and a couple of truly awful months just ahead of us.
  #110  
Old 04-02-2020, 04:33 PM
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BTW, the Georgia Secretary of State is apparently making a concerted effort to ready the state for voting by mail by mailing ballots to all seven million registered voters. Georgia House Speaker David Ralston is appalled.
  #111  
Old 04-02-2020, 04:37 PM
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So, our west coast friends, what kind of government is your new California Republic going to have? Gonna emulate the current US structure -- which kinda doesn't make sense without a bunch of different states in the republic -- or will you try out some exciting new thangs? Parliament? Single house legislature? No executive branch? Multi-member districts and proportional voting? C'mon, this is your chance to design a new government from scratch.
  #112  
Old 04-02-2020, 05:09 PM
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But to roll your eyes and dismiss it ignores an awful lot of history
I'll take any bets that there will not be a dissolution of the U.S government before the end of this pandemic. No odds, just straight up even money. Totally serious.
  #113  
Old 04-02-2020, 05:13 PM
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I'll take any bets that there will not be a dissolution of the U.S government before the end of this pandemic. No odds, just straight up even money. Totally serious.
Well, I don't think it will happen either, so I wouldn't take that betóI just think it's a possibility, albeit a very small one, as opposed to completely impossible.
  #114  
Old 04-02-2020, 05:16 PM
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Well, I don't think it will happen either,
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  #115  
Old 04-03-2020, 07:28 AM
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Florida is unable to provide unemployment benefits to its people because
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Privately, Republicans admit that the $77.9 million system that is now failing Florida workers is doing exactly what Scott designed it to do — lower the state’s reported number of jobless claims after the great recession.
https://www.politico.com/states/flor...-trump-1271172

The governor of Georgia said two days ago that he just found out that people who aren't showing symptoms can spread the virus. A fact that has been publicly known for at least two months.

There is a cost to the Republican antigovernment, anti-blue state rhetoric. They've dismantled the institutions that protected them and constantly shit on the people paying the bills.

How long are we going to be carrying these states? There is going to be a point where we just can't. When climate change and the natural disasters mean that we won't be able to subsidize anti-science racists to not grow corn.

Last edited by madmonk28; 04-03-2020 at 07:29 AM.
  #116  
Old 04-03-2020, 08:15 AM
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BTW, the Georgia Secretary of State is apparently making a concerted effort to ready the state for voting by mail by mailing ballots to all seven million registered voters. Georgia House Speaker David Ralston is appalled.
You don't even need to go as low as Georgia House Speaker.

President Trump himself just said (about the Coronavirus stimulus bill): ďThe things they had in there were crazy. They had things ó levels of voting that, if you ever agreed to it, youíd never have a Republican elected in this country again.Ē

When you have a system where one side honestly believes that more voting is bad for them, and are willing to work in the direction of limiting voting, it is a sign of an unhealthy system.

I actually think this crisis may help on that front by forcing many more states to go to a vote-by-mail system. I don't think residents of those states will stand by and allow their government to force them to polls in a pandemic just because they are worried more people would vote. But I could be wrong...
  #117  
Old 04-03-2020, 08:27 AM
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States led by Republican governors and with a significant share of Trump supporters were an average of nearly three days later than other states to enact social distancing measures related to the COVID-19 outbreak, according to a new study....

...But the response to and attitude toward the virus have been mixed among political leaders. For several weeks at the beginning of the outbreak, President Trump and some right-leaning media outlets did not characterize the virus as a threat or dismissed it outright as a hoax.
https://www.washington.edu/news/2020...cing-measures/

We're simply not countrymen.
  #118  
Old 04-03-2020, 08:47 AM
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New York on it's own is still over 1/3 Red State, it's not monolithically blue - over 1/3 of New York State's voters (36%) voted for Trump in 2016 even though it was obviously not a swing state. The idea that the 'Blue State' of New York can cleanly separate from all those 'Red State' voters when their own 'blue' state has a lot of 'red' in it doesn't stand up to reality. And, again, that Red State support tends to be in law enforcement, military, agricultural producers, and large land owners, which makes any sort of split really messy, since the 'reds' have the advantage in violence, food, and land.

I don't think it's impossible for the US to break up, but the 'blue state' 'red state' split doesn't actually work like people seem to think it does.
Exactly, do you think the well armed "red state" presence is going to LET you secede and have control of the State? It is more likely that the 36% well armed populace, kicks YOU out or takes what you think you own.

And all the others saying we will just import more food (all from overseas clearly) because there won't be Interstate travel for your food, without a hefty price tag for it. And then what? Then you are in the same boat you already were

Last edited by Kearsen1; 04-03-2020 at 08:48 AM.
  #119  
Old 04-03-2020, 09:35 AM
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I'll take any bets that there will not be a dissolution of the U.S government before the end of this pandemic. No odds, just straight up even money. Totally serious.
Before the end of this pandemic? You're right, probably not, so technically, the thread would be less than prophetic since it literally asks whether we might break up *before* the pandemic is over. But I think what we're really interested in is whether or not the pandemic becomes a shock event, a trigger point that hurls the country head first into a political crisis. There's a very real chance that this is what results.

We're dealing with two major crises concurrently: an existential health crisis, with a virus that might actually be more lethal than the 1918 influenza, and a global economic crisis. These are going to shake people to their core. It's going to create perceptions of danger to person, and the economic crisis will create perceptions of scarcity. This is not something that just fades away. This causes palpable fear.
  #120  
Old 04-03-2020, 09:39 AM
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You do realize that the attitudes and opinions you quote are only represented by about 10-15% of Americans, pretty much evenly divided along party lines. The majority of Americans don't really give a shit about politics. The are more concerned about making a living, taking care of their kids, putting food on the table, finding ways to increase the standard of living, planning for that next vacation, hoping their kids are better off then they are, etc. These are common traits among most Americans regardless of which party they identify with.
It only takes 10-15% of the country to start a civil conflict - shit, it probably doesn't even take that many. A fraction of that, maybe.
  #121  
Old 04-03-2020, 09:43 AM
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Exactly, do you think the well armed "red state" presence is going to LET you secede and have control of the State? It is more likely that the 36% well armed populace, kicks YOU out or takes what you think you own.

And all the others saying we will just import more food (all from overseas clearly) because there won't be Interstate travel for your food, without a hefty price tag for it. And then what? Then you are in the same boat you already were
Yep, the next conflict won't divide the US neatly along state lines. I could see rural farmers refusing to sell their produce to city markets, gun shops refusing to sell firearms to anyone they suspect of being on the other side of the political divide.
  #122  
Old 04-03-2020, 10:42 AM
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Exactly, do you think the well armed "red state" presence is going to LET you secede and have control of the State? It is more likely that the 36% well armed populace, kicks YOU out or takes what you think you own.

And all the others saying we will just import more food (all from overseas clearly) because there won't be Interstate travel for your food, without a hefty price tag for it. And then what? Then you are in the same boat you already were
Well to be fair, our food is grown by Mexican immigrants and red staters are already making it impossible for them to do their jobs. As far as whether I want to live in a country populated by scientists, doctors and professionals, or one populated by Paul Blart mall cops, that's a pretty easy call.
  #123  
Old 04-03-2020, 11:19 AM
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Well to be fair, our food is grown by Mexican immigrants and red staters are already making it impossible for them to do their jobs. As far as whether I want to live in a country populated by scientists, doctors and professionals, or one populated by Paul Blart mall cops, that's a pretty easy call.
So how are you going to make this country populated by 'scientists, doctors, and professionals' - are you going to kill or expel the 1/3 red staters? How are you going to maintain order without police or prisons and independence without a formal military or militia? If you cut out the 'red' areas from a state and have a little city-state, what are you going to do when the lower classes start to get discontent, or when you have crime waves to deal with? Especially, what will you do if those hated 'red staters' close down their prisons and send the worst of the gangbangers and whatnot right back into your city?

All of this 'blue state secession' stuff is pure fantasy, there's not a plausible path for how you get there (unless you start mass murder or mass expulsions) or how you maintain a functional country with such hostile neighbors. And that's not even getting into things like how desperately dependent Blue California is on a bunch of Red areas just to have a functioning water supply!
  #124  
Old 04-03-2020, 11:58 AM
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Again dude, for like the fourth time: I’m not saying that this is a planned, or managed process. I’m also not saying that it will happen during this pandemic.

What I am saying is that we are no longer countrymen. We don’t share a culture or values. Indeed, our values are diametrically opposed. We are coming apart at the seams. The current system is predicated on Trumpland embracing virulent racism, anti-science and opposition to democracy. Trumpland is also based on blue state America always footing the bills and always acting like the adults in the room.

I’m also saying that we are rapidly approaching a point when blue state America simply can’t pay for Trumpland anymore; that their rejection of science has made their lands untenable as a developed nation. As Trumpland continues it’s slide, blue state America will have to cut it loose. It simply costs too much and provides too little (it’s surplus of security guards aside).

I’m not saying it’s going to be planned, I’m not saying it’s not going to be messy. I’m not even saying that it’s not too late. We missed our window on climate change thanks to red staters.

What I am saying is that it is inevitable and that red staters’ radical pro-pollution, anti-democracy, violent rhetoric and policies are largely to blame. I don’t know who is going to be post master General, I don’t know how we’re going to help the people of color, gays and intellectuals stuck in Trumpists; I don’t know how we’re going to handle zip-coding for Arkansas. I do know that it’s falling apart. Deal with it

Last edited by madmonk28; 04-03-2020 at 11:59 AM.
  #125  
Old 04-03-2020, 12:50 PM
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Again dude, for like the fourth time: Iím not saying that this is a planned, or managed process. Iím also not saying that it will happen during this pandemic... What I am saying is that it is inevitable and that red statersí radical pro-pollution, anti-democracy, violent rhetoric and policies are largely to blame. I donít know who is going to be post master General, I donít know how weíre going to help the people of color, gays and intellectuals stuck in Trumpists; I donít know how weíre going to handle zip-coding for Arkansas. I do know that itís falling apart. Deal with it
Again dude, for like the fourth time: as much as you want to ignore it and obfuscate, your fantasy of blue states splitting off and forming a society with all doctors, professionals, and scientists while the red staters stay away is pure fantasy. Trying to pretend that a question like "how are you going to deal with the fact that about 1/3 of your blue states are composed of people with red state values, and they tend to dominate the organizations that have power when things fall apart" is akin to some piddling, irrelevant detail like "zip-coding for Arkansas" just shows how much of a fantasyland you're living in.

If the US does fall apart, it's not going to be neat 'blue state, red state' lines, and the 'red staters' have (as I've pointed out) a huge advantage during a state of disorder, since even if their numbers are smaller (which is questionable, a lot of people don't fit neatly into either) they tend to be concentrated in organizations that can wield a lot of power during a collapse, and are better armed on an individual level.
  #126  
Old 04-03-2020, 01:51 PM
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Again dude, for like the fourth time: Iím not saying that this is a planned, or managed process. Iím also not saying that it will happen during this pandemic.

What I am saying is that we are no longer countrymen. We donít share a culture or values. Indeed, our values are diametrically opposed. We are coming apart at the seams. The current system is predicated on Trumpland embracing virulent racism, anti-science and opposition to democracy. Trumpland is also based on blue state America always footing the bills and always acting like the adults in the room.

Iím also saying that we are rapidly approaching a point when blue state America simply canít pay for Trumpland anymore; that their rejection of science has made their lands untenable as a developed nation. As Trumpland continues itís slide, blue state America will have to cut it loose. It simply costs too much and provides too little (itís surplus of security guards aside).

Iím not saying itís going to be planned, Iím not saying itís not going to be messy. Iím not even saying that itís not too late. We missed our window on climate change thanks to red staters.

What I am saying is that it is inevitable and that red statersí radical pro-pollution, anti-democracy, violent rhetoric and policies are largely to blame. I donít know who is going to be post master General, I donít know how weíre going to help the people of color, gays and intellectuals stuck in Trumpists; I donít know how weíre going to handle zip-coding for Arkansas. I do know that itís falling apart. Deal with it
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Again dude, for like the fourth time: as much as you want to ignore it and obfuscate, your fantasy of blue states splitting off and forming a society with all doctors, professionals, and scientists while the red staters stay away is pure fantasy. Trying to pretend that a question like "how are you going to deal with the fact that about 1/3 of your blue states are composed of people with red state values, and they tend to dominate the organizations that have power when things fall apart" is akin to some piddling, irrelevant detail like "zip-coding for Arkansas" just shows how much of a fantasyland you're living in.

If the US does fall apart, it's not going to be neat 'blue state, red state' lines, and the 'red staters' have (as I've pointed out) a huge advantage during a state of disorder, since even if their numbers are smaller (which is questionable, a lot of people don't fit neatly into either) they tend to be concentrated in organizations that can wield a lot of power during a collapse, and are better armed on an individual level.
FFS, societies don't fall apart according to plan. If any of this comes to pass it will be unpredictable, unorganized and likely full of very bloody unintended consequences. Denying the feasibility of an orderly secession from the United States doesn't mean that things won't come apart in a much less orderly way.
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  #127  
Old 04-03-2020, 02:05 PM
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I don't think 30% is significantly less than 33.3% (all right, 3.3% less). That's still 3 in every 10 people.
Wow. I said I agreed with the Poster, and that mine was a Nitpick. Did you Google "Nitpick"?

If your claim is that 30% is "more than 1/3" perhaps you should just bump the 1≠0.99999... thread.

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  #128  
Old 04-03-2020, 02:35 PM
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Again dude, for like the fourth time: as much as you want to ignore it and obfuscate, your fantasy of blue states splitting off and forming a society with all doctors, professionals, and scientists while the red staters stay away is pure fantasy. Trying to pretend that a question like "how are you going to deal with the fact that about 1/3 of your blue states are composed of people with red state values, and they tend to dominate the organizations that have power when things fall apart" is akin to some piddling, irrelevant detail like "zip-coding for Arkansas" just shows how much of a fantasyland you're living in.

If the US does fall apart, it's not going to be neat 'blue state, red state' lines, and the 'red staters' have (as I've pointed out) a huge advantage during a state of disorder, since even if their numbers are smaller (which is questionable, a lot of people don't fit neatly into either) they tend to be concentrated in organizations that can wield a lot of power during a collapse, and are better armed on an individual level.
It would be better if red state America stopped being anti-democratic and anti-science. It would be better if they took this moment as a wake up call to examine their entire belief system and commit to joining modern society and pulling their own weight, but that's not going to happen. And when a split comes, blue state America is going to be in a much better position then Trumpistan.

Have you seen the NY Times article tracking people's social isolation habits by tracking their cell phone movements? Trumpistan carried on as if nothing had changed.

Quote:
Stay-at-home orders have nearly halted travel for most Americans, but people in Florida, the Southeast and other places that waited to enact such orders have continued to travel widely, potentially exposing more people as the coronavirus outbreak accelerates, according to an analysis of cellphone location data by The New York Times.

The divide in travel patterns, based on anonymous cellphone data from 15 million people, suggests that Americans in wide swaths of the West, Northeast and Midwest have complied with orders from state and local officials to stay home...

In Jacksonville, the sheriffís department had to send out officers over the weekend to break up block parties. In Spartanburg, S.C., people were still going to the hardware store to buy supplies for home-improvement projects, and pictures from children's birthday parties and playdates were being posted on Facebook.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...istancing.html

Does that sound like a society that is going to thrive in the 21st century? During this pandemic, their president trotted out a guy who makes pillows to tell people to read the bible. I really don't see them being able to maintain any kind of modern state without blue state subsidies and support.
  #129  
Old 04-03-2020, 02:47 PM
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Wow. I said I agreed with the Poster, and that mine was a Nitpick. Did you Google "Nitpick"?

If your claim is that 30% is "more than 1/3" perhaps you should just bump the 1≠0.99999... thread.

NETA: Did you ever figure out those I-E clading dates?
I don't know quite what upset you so, but I assure you that was not my intent. All I meant was that, nitpick or no, I don't think 3% is significant to the broader point being discussed. But it's certainly not worth the electrons to hash out.
  #130  
Old 04-03-2020, 04:04 PM
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FFS, societies don't fall apart according to plan. If any of this comes to pass it will be unpredictable, unorganized and likely full of very bloody unintended consequences. Denying the feasibility of an orderly secession from the United States doesn't mean that things won't come apart in a much less orderly way.
That's the only way I see the USA breaking up. If things get so bad that society effectively falls apart. Like I'm talking about where the Federal government literally can't function (not just functions inefficiently or ineptly). I mean like you can't get mail or internet anymore.
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Old 04-03-2020, 06:14 PM
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FFS, societies don't fall apart according to plan. If any of this comes to pass it will be unpredictable, unorganized and likely full of very bloody unintended consequences. Denying the feasibility of an orderly secession from the United States doesn't mean that things won't come apart in a much less orderly way.
FFS dude it sounds like you're agreeing with me that the it's silly to say that Blue Staters are going to cleanly split off from the US, populated by 40% Red Staters and form a great society of doctors, scientists, and professionals that somehow won't have any problems resulting from the fact that it's now composed of 30% or more Red staters instead of 40%. I am denying the feasibility of a 'Blue State' secession, not just an 'orderly secession' - it would have to be much, much messier than the fantasies people are posting.
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Old 04-03-2020, 06:20 PM
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And when a split comes, blue state America is going to be in a much better position then Trumpistan.
Again, this is a bald assertion that you've failed to support over and over again. "Blue State America" still has a lot of "Trumpistan" people in it, and you've failed to address anything at all about how they deal with that. "Blue State America" is just a fantasy construction, there aren't any states that are devoid of "Red State" people.

Furthermore, in your hypothetical split, "Trumpistan" has significantly more support in the federal military, state national guards, police forces, large landowners, and agriculture owners, and a lot more personal weaponry than blue state America. In some kind of open revolt scenario where government breaks down, I would say that the advantage goes to the people with the organized and personal violence on their side plus most of the land and food production. Again, you keep failing to even touch on this little issue.
  #133  
Old 04-03-2020, 11:05 PM
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My ancestors for the last two hundred years have come from from four counties on the NY/PA border. Watching the comments on Facebook from family and friend's posts makes me wonder when they will start shooting...
  #134  
Old 04-04-2020, 04:18 AM
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Exactly, do you think the well armed "red state" presence is going to LET you secede and have control of the State? It is more likely that the 36% well armed populace, kicks YOU out or takes what you think you own.
Were a state to secede, then that state's law enforcement functions would be executed by the existing police hierarchy. That hierarchy would presumably be operating with a mandate from the state legislature, reflecting at least a plurality, if not outright majority, of public opinion in that state. Those who remained loyal to the central government could then either: a) resign, b) resist, or c) move. If you are purporting that loyalists could resist to such an extent that they could override the public will, then you are in effect describing an undemocratic coup. Given the more than two centuries of experience that Americans have in self-rule, I find that to be even less likely an outcome than simple state secession, which at least has the precedent of actually having occurred in American history.

Quote:
And all the others saying we will just import more food (all from overseas clearly) because there won't be Interstate travel for your food, without a hefty price tag for it. And then what? Then you are in the same boat you already were
Historically, regions which produce raw commodities have been poorer when compared to those which specialize in trade or industrial production. The greatest world power of the 19th and early 20th century, Great Britain, was an illustrative exemplar of this principle. If you don't believe me, you can examine the actions taken by Napoleon, Wilhelm II, and Hitler during wartime (to varying levels of success) to deprive the British of their commodity inputs. The links of trade between supplier and supplied were sufficiently durable in each case, even during the extreme conditions of open warfare. A hypothetical Bear State Republic could simply import its raw materials. Its what rich, advanced states have done for centuries.

Food is a particularly poor commodity on which to found a state's economic power, as it can be produced almost anywhere. Even a relatively rare commodity such as cobalt, necessary in high-strength alloy and lithium battery production, has hardly lifted the Democratic Republic of Congo (accounting for more than 50% of global supply) out of extreme poverty. The only exception in recent times has been for petroleum producers, but even there the record is mixed (Algeria, Angola, Republic of the Congo).
  #135  
Old 04-04-2020, 04:37 AM
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So how are you going to make this country populated by 'scientists, doctors, and professionals' - are you going to kill or expel the 1/3 red staters?
In a nutshell, yes. As I previously noted in this thread, two of the largest mass migrations in human history were effected within the last 80 years as a direct consequence of the dissolution of two states, the Third Reich and the British Raj. In each case, there was also tremendous attendant bloodshed.

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Originally Posted by me

"...the rule, not the exception, in human history is for populations to sort themselves out geographically to accommodate the political realities of the time."
  #136  
Old 04-04-2020, 04:55 AM
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I'll take any bets that there will not be a dissolution of the U.S government before the end of this pandemic. No odds, just straight up even money. Totally serious.
This comes across as a rather disingenuous offer, given that the dissolution of the US is likely to render any online financial transactions involving Americans to be highly problematic, at best. Moreover, there is also the issue of how one defines the "end" of a pandemic.

However, given these constraints, I would still be willing to accept your wager. Not at straight up odds, though - that is also disingenuous, as no one in this thread has asserted that a US dissolution is likely. Personally, I see it as rather unlikely, but not implausibly so, and so I would wager 1g of gold against your 10g of gold.

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Is it also eye-roll-worthy that a US state just two days ago was conducting de facto foreign policy?

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Originally Posted by politico.com

"For weeks, [Governor] Baker has warned that Massachusetts is in desperate need of more protective equipment including masks, sanitizing wipes and gowns for health care workers on the front lines of the coronavirus crisis, especially as cases are expected to surge sometime between April 7 and April 17 in Massachusetts.

The Republican governor has raised those concerns with Trump. He told the president the federal government was outbidding Massachusetts on equipment ó even after advising states to work on getting their own supplies. A week later, the Bay State was still being outbid and had only received a fraction of what it requested from the Strategic National Stockpile. Baker grew increasingly frustrated at a recent news conference, saying heíd seen confirmed orders for millions of pieces of gear "evaporate" before his eyes.

With Kraft's help, it appears Massachusetts has found an alternative way to get necessary equipment. It wasnít clear Wednesday night whether Kraft or the state is paying for the protective equipment being imported from China."
  #137  
Old 04-04-2020, 07:37 AM
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It only takes 10-15% of the country to start a civil conflict - shit, it probably doesn't even take that many. A fraction of that, maybe.
Well if the ginger group was 100% of the 0.5% of the USA who form the military they’d probably win. And without that 0.5% the best the 15% can hope for is a political settlement.

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I could see rural farmers refusing to sell their produce to city markets.
No. The thing that keeps farmers awake at night is the (remote/fanciful) possibility that the city will stop buying their produce.
After all, who else are they going to sell it to? And let’s not forget that it’s corporate agribusiness that feeds America.
If you want unending supplies of two all beef patties to put on those sesame seed buns it won’t be Cliven Bundy providing the protein.
  #138  
Old 04-04-2020, 08:44 AM
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My ancestors for the last two hundred years have come from from four counties on the NY/PA border. Watching the comments on Facebook from family and friend's posts makes me wonder when they will start shooting...
What are they going to do? Invade...I don't know what's out there...Port Jervis, NY (pop 8000)?



Quote:
Originally Posted by Pantastic
Originally Posted by madmonk28 View Post And when a split comes, blue state America is going to be in a much better position then Trumpistan.

Again, this is a bald assertion that you've failed to support over and over again. "Blue State America" still has a lot of "Trumpistan" people in it, and you've failed to address anything at all about how they deal with that. "Blue State America" is just a fantasy construction, there aren't any states that are devoid of "Red State" people.

Furthermore, in your hypothetical split, "Trumpistan" has significantly more support in the federal military, state national guards, police forces, large landowners, and agriculture owners, and a lot more personal weaponry than blue state America. In some kind of open revolt scenario where government breaks down, I would say that the advantage goes to the people with the organized and personal violence on their side plus most of the land and food production. Again, you keep failing to even touch on this little issue.
Yeah, this all sounds like right wing fantasy talk. Like the sort of people who live on the NY/PA border and believe Real America is uniformly armed, conservative military and police types who will all rise up in unison to counter the threat from pinko Liberals.
  #139  
Old 04-04-2020, 08:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Pantastic View Post
Again, this is a bald assertion that you've failed to support over and over again. "Blue State America" still has a lot of "Trumpistan" people in it, and you've failed to address anything at all about how they deal with that. "Blue State America" is just a fantasy construction, there aren't any states that are devoid of "Red State" people.

Furthermore, in your hypothetical split, "Trumpistan" has significantly more support in the federal military, state national guards, police forces, large landowners, and agriculture owners, and a lot more personal weaponry than blue state America. In some kind of open revolt scenario where government breaks down, I would say that the advantage goes to the people with the organized and personal violence on their side plus most of the land and food production. Again, you keep failing to even touch on this little issue.
And red state Georgia is going to reopen their beaches. Theyíre just too stupid to keep alive. Itís exhausting. And Iíve said several times that this is a messy dissolution, not a managed secession.

Last edited by madmonk28; 04-04-2020 at 09:02 AM.
  #140  
Old 04-04-2020, 12:19 PM
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Were a state to secede, then that state's law enforcement functions would be executed by the existing police hierarchy. That hierarchy would presumably be operating with a mandate from the state legislature, reflecting at least a plurality, if not outright majority, of public opinion in that state.
The scenario keeps shifting. First it was the US simply collapsing and states going their own way, now it's some fantasy of 'quietly vote, and the US government will respect the state's decision to leave and there will be no complications to that'. There's not going to be this sort of 'quietly vote to secede and everyone goes along with it'.

Quote:
Those who remained loyal to the central government could then either: a) resign, b) resist, or c) move. If you are purporting that loyalists could resist to such an extent that they could override the public will, then you are in effect describing an undemocratic coup.
In your scenario, I would expect the US Army to prevent the state from its illegal secession - those loyal to the central government would resist along with the most powerful army in the world. Note that the Federal Governement owns about 50% of California's land, including major military facilities, there's a huge financial and practical incentive not to let a state just decide to leave on it's own.

Quote:
Given the more than two centuries of experience that Americans have in self-rule, I find that to be even less likely an outcome than simple state secession, which at least has the precedent of actually having occurred in American history.
The precedent in 'simple state secession' is that the Federal government prevented states from leaving, so if you're going to cite precedent that should be your expected outcome.

Quote:
Food is a particularly poor commodity on which to found a state's economic power,
Food is needed to keep people alive. Importing food from afar when you've just taken actions that will crash your currency and provoke the hostility of the most powerful navy in the world seems to be a bit more difficult than you're making out.
  #141  
Old 04-04-2020, 12:23 PM
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Originally Posted by msmith537 View Post
Yeah, this all sounds like right wing fantasy talk. Like the sort of people who live on the NY/PA border and believe Real America is uniformly armed, conservative military and police types who will all rise up in unison to counter the threat from pinko Liberals.
No, it's just an attempt to inject some realism into this thread to counter the left wing absurd fantasies. No one (especially me) said any of the things that you listed above.

Quote:
Originally Posted by madmonk28 View Post
And red state Georgia is going to reopen their beaches. Theyíre just too stupid to keep alive. Itís exhausting. And Iíve said several times that this is a messy dissolution, not a managed secession.
Are you just conceding that I'm right? You don't seem to be countering anything that I've said, just saying 'wow, look at this stupid shit someone else did'.
  #142  
Old 04-04-2020, 02:02 PM
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The scenario keeps shifting. First it was the US simply collapsing and states going their own way, now it's some fantasy of 'quietly vote, and the US government will respect the state's decision to leave and there will be no complications to that'. There's not going to be this sort of 'quietly vote to secede and everyone goes along with it'.
Please don't put words in my mouth. I have been arguing in good faith with you so far. I would appreciate it if you would return the favor. If not, this shall be our last exchange.

The "scenario" to which I was replying was Kearsen1's of intrastate conflict, not the one you are presenting here of an interstate or state/federal struggle. I am under no illusion that a state or several states seceding from the federal government would be accomplished in a calm, orderly fashion. History, both American and that of rest of the world, suggests that it would likely be a very violent and bloody process.

Quote:
In your scenario, I would expect the US Army to prevent the state from its illegal secession - those loyal to the central government would resist along with the most powerful army in the world. Note that the Federal Governement owns about 50% of California's land, including major military facilities, there's a huge financial and practical incentive not to let a state just decide to leave on it's own.
Since you (not I) brought it up, I agree that it is likely to expect those elements of the US military loyal to the federal government to forcibly resist any such movement to secede. However, I find your last two points to be specious. Ownership on paper is a legal fiction; Habsburg ownership of Kronlšnder was hardly an impediment to the dissolution of the Austro-Hungarian Empire. As to your second point, you are only considering the financial incentive of the federal government - presumably were the situation to deteriorate to the point where a state were seriously deliberating secession, they would have their own incentives for doing so, financial or otherwise. The feds can decide whether or not they wish to let a state go peaceably - what is not up to them is whether a state would attempt to do so in the first place.

Quote:
The precedent in 'simple state secession' is that the Federal government prevented states from leaving, so if you're going to cite precedent that should be your expected outcome.
Again, I never asserted a likelihood of "simple state secession". My reference to precedent was vis-a-vis Kearsen1's proposed coup d'ťtat, which unlike secession, does not have an American precedent.

Quote:
Food is needed to keep people alive. Importing food from afar when you've just taken actions that will crash your currency and provoke the hostility of the most powerful navy in the world seems to be a bit more difficult than you're making out.
Similar arguments could have been made in 1810, 1915, and 1942. They were not found to be persuasive. I doubt they would be persuasive this time, either.
  #143  
Old 04-04-2020, 02:58 PM
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So Pantastic, all of your arguments as to why this won't happen, not just now but in the future, are good ones, but are you saying that the US in it's present form will be here forever? You can't imagine any scenario for a break up, or are you just arguing that this current crisis will not be what causes it? I don't think anyone is saying it going to happen now. Only that it could and only in the worst case scenario.

I went back and read my OP, and this thread has gotten away from it a bit and into discussions about what might happen over time, but re the OP. When I brought up the scenario of NY/NJ etc having no new cases and neighboring states not having it under control, it didn't mean those states would just have a few hundred cases but tens if not hundreds of thousands. I did not make that clear. I'm sure you've seen the projections that if we did nothing millions would die. That is not going to happen, there are now 8 states with no stay at home order. But it will happen as soon as those states get a few more cases.
  #144  
Old 04-05-2020, 02:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Mabes View Post
So Pantastic, all of your arguments as to why this won't happen, not just now but in the future, are good ones, but are you saying that the US in it's present form will be here forever? You can't imagine any scenario for a break up, or are you just arguing that this current crisis will not be what causes it? I don't think anyone is saying it going to happen now. Only that it could and only in the worst case scenario.
I have literally made zero arguments in this thread about a breakup of the US being impossible, or whether this current crisis would cause it. "All of my arguments as to why this won't happen" is a set of zero arguments. What I have argued consistently is that there is no way that you end up with the 'Blue States' splitting off from 'Trumpistan' and becoming prosperous nations filled with doctors, lawyers, and professionals while 'Trumpistan' rots away quietly. The whole absurd fantasy that 'blue states' can just walk away from 'red states' is just based on myth and a distinct lack of critical thinking.
  #145  
Old 04-05-2020, 02:45 PM
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Please don't put words in my mouth. I have been arguing in good faith with you so far. I would appreciate it if you would return the favor. If not, this shall be our last exchange.
I quoted you and responded directly to words that you wrote. If responding to your own words is 'putting words in your mouth', you should probably work on that.

Quote:
The "scenario" to which I was replying was Kearsen1's of intrastate conflict, not the one you are presenting here of an interstate or state/federal struggle.
Again, I responded directly to what you wrote about states seceding. You appear to have some specific scenario in mind that doesn't match what you say, then criticize me for responding to what you say instead of what's in your head.

Quote:
However, I find your last two points to be specious. Ownership on paper is a legal fiction;
Ownership of military bases that have armed troops on them, and ownership of land that someone is trying to make have very real issues. The consequences of a state treating a US military base as a 'legal fiction' were demonstrated when South Carolina fired on Fort Sumpter at the start of the US Civil War.

Quote:
Similar arguments could have been made in 1810, 1915, and 1942. They were not found to be persuasive. I doubt they would be persuasive this time, either.
I have no idea what specific historical events you're referring to, and am not going to play the stupid game where I try to guess what you're even talking about, then you berate me for guessing wrong. If you're making an argument, actually make it, especially if you're going to claim to be arguing in good faith. None of your examples seem relevant anyway, as I'm not aware of a relevant event in any of those years - there's no incidence of a subunit of a nation seceeding, then trying to use the main nation's fiat currency to buy food. If your 1915 and 1942 examples involve Germany, for example, there was no secession and virtually all of their foreign trade was backed by precious metals, not the Mark.

Last edited by Pantastic; 04-05-2020 at 02:46 PM.
  #146  
Old 04-09-2020, 08:20 PM
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Governor Newsom announces that California is now a nation-state.
  #147  
Old 04-11-2020, 12:35 PM
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Governor Newsom announces that California is now a nation-state.
Your cite is an opinion piece. I see no formal declaration of independence. Too bad; I'd like to quit subsidizing retarded red states with my hard-earned tax money.
  #148  
Old 04-11-2020, 02:03 PM
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I have literally made zero arguments in this thread about a breakup of the US being impossible, or whether this current crisis would cause it. "All of my arguments as to why this won't happen" is a set of zero arguments. What I have argued consistently is that there is no way that you end up with the 'Blue States' splitting off from 'Trumpistan' and becoming prosperous nations filled with doctors, lawyers, and professionals while 'Trumpistan' rots away quietly. The whole absurd fantasy that 'blue states' can just walk away from 'red states' is just based on myth and a distinct lack of critical thinking.
My question wasn't stated very well. Of course you don't believe it could never happen. And if anyone said it would be a clean break, I missed that. The link above about Newsom calling California a nation-state, well, California is not voting to secede in the near future, but that idea may become popular over time. It might happen in New York.

Last edited by Mike Mabes; 04-11-2020 at 02:05 PM.
  #149  
Old 04-18-2020, 01:37 PM
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Got into a discussion with my liberal friend Karen (I am sure a lot of her neighbors think of her as a "Karen") who has recently retired and moved to Texas from NYC. I was responding to Trump's LIBERATE tweeets and said this - I wish those states could be liberated, along with the entire Northeast and the West Coast, from the red states that are bringing this country down. I wish we could have a Brexit in this country.

Her first response was like some of the ones in my I Pit the South post - I am so sick of this "people in red states get what they deserve" along with “Texas should secede ... good riddance !” There are plenty of non-Republicans, including people of color, LGBTQ, and others who didn't ask for this and don't deserve to be written off by those who are fortunate enough to hold a majority in some other state.

I said to her what I said in that thread, of course not all people in the south are bad people. There are good people on one side. And I did not say the non-Republicans "get what they deserve."

She eventually posted what follows, from a friend of her's on FB.

An apocalyptic vision from north of the border:
The Imminent Breakup of the United States of America

It will only take one more election cycle. If Donald Trump loses the popular vote but, against all odds, ekes out a win through the Electoral College, the residents of blue states will have had enough. Enough of winning the popular vote and losing the election. Enough of gerrymandering, voter suppression, corruption and anti government governments. Enough of a minority dictating to the majority because the antiquated structure of the Senate makes it almost impossible for Democrats to gain control. They will have had enough of small government rhetoric and trickle down economics that just means tax cuts for the rich. They will have had enough of their money supporting red states who then vote for candidates the residents of blue states despise. They will have had enough of Citizens United allowing the rich to buy the government, the Koch’s organization spending hundreds of millions to elect Republican candidates to then deliver the legislation that favors them. Enough of the Freedom Caucus, the drowning the government in a bathtub, and tax cut after tax cut for the wealthy. They will have had enough of the infrastructure decaying and falling apart because fixing it might encourage big government. They will have had more school shootings than they can bear because the NRA and their Republican puppets will stop at nothing to obstruct gun control. And they will have seen enough people die because they couldn’t afford health insurance. They will have had enough of the faux libertarian bullshit being spouted by politicians and talking heads on Fox News. Enough of the disregard for expertise, for education, for empathy for others. Enough of the racism, the rollbacks of regulations protecting the environment and protecting people. Enough of the Climate Denial. Enough of conspiracy theories and the blaring voices on resentment radio. They will want their children to go to school and be safe - a good public school, because America once had good public schools. They will have had enough of spending trillions of dollars on a massive military when people die for lack of healthcare. They will have had enough of the country that the Republican party has wrought since Reagan began his attack on government. A claim the right has been making for years will finally come true - liberals will hate America. Not the America once envisioned and brought to life by generations that came before, but the America that Republican governments and Fox News have created. An America that is no longer a modern democratic state, but a strange outlier. A wealthy nation that’s government serves the wishes of an ultra wealthy upper class, like some third world nations.

When the residents of blue states finally realize that they will never have an America that they can love and believe in and be proud of - an America that represents their values - they will begin to face the inevitable. They will grieve, they will take a long deep breath, and they will begin the process of separating from the rest of America. Scholars of the constitution will begin desperately to argue that there is no process by which states can separate and point to the Civil War, but there was no process by which the Thirteen Colonies could leave the British Empire, either. There will be no war this time. There will be referendums on the question of separating from America and, with great sadness but even greater resolve, the blue state residents will vote to leave. Yes, there will be a constitutional crisis, threats to arrest governors and state legislators, and threats to send in the National Guard, but if people in the blue states simply refuse to pay their federal taxes, and instead pay that money into state coffers. If they fill the streets in peaceful protest at any attempt to use the National Guard or the military, if they stand by their decision and refuse to acknowledge the federal government’s power over them, the feds will be forced to come to the table and recognize what has, in fact, occurred - the blue states have left to create a country where their people can feel at home. A country that reflects who they are and what they believe. Whether the blue states will then form a single country or more than one, is yet to be seen, but one thing is abundantly clear - the residents of blue states will not put up with having their country run by a minority whose values are in open opposition to their own. They will have had enough, and the great experiment called the United States of America will have come to an end. Out of it will come new nations - the “old” America where conservatives can finally realize their libertarian dream, and a new nation or nations that can become functioning, modern states. The world will mourn but understand; there could be no reconciliation between the two national visions. The inevitable end had finally been accepted.

Now, the primary argument against this happening that I have seen is that there are many Reds (I still find it so ironic that red is the color of the Republican party) in blue states. And yes there are but they are a minority, and every state and country that has ever existed has a minority. Brexit did not get 100% support. Nowhere near.

This theory has noting to do with COVID, she is saying the break-up will happen if Trump gets re-elected. Well, what happens if that doesn't happen? I think what she writes will happen over a period of time. 5 years? 10? 20? And there are problems with this theory - " if people in the blue states simply refuse to pay their federal taxes, and instead pay that money into state coffers. If they fill the streets in peaceful protest at any attempt to use the National Guard or the military, if they stand by their decision and refuse to acknowledge the federal government’s power over them". Would that happen? I don't know. If Trump is re-elected, with Biden getting 5 million more votes, people will protest. There were protests when Trump got elected. Went on for all of a couple of weeks.

One way that it secission will not happen is the elimination of the electoral college, but that takes a constitutional amendment. The other way is if the Democrats can get control of both houses of Congress, in this election and from now on. And maybe this crisis will cause a majority of people in the red states to realize that the federal goverment is not the Big Bad Wolf and that we need univeral health care and a lot of other things.

And here I am, the enternal pessimist, hoping good things will eventually come from this.

And I am going to add an ETA before I even post this. Re-reading this - the residents of blue states will not put up with having their country run by a minority whose values are in open opposition to their own. They will have had enough, and the great experiment called the United States of America will have come to an end. Out of it will come new nations - the “old” America where conservatives can finally realize their libertarian dream, and a new nation or nations that can become functioning, modern states.

Skeptical about this. I think it is just a "hippie dream", as the great Neil Young once sang

Last edited by Mike Mabes; 04-18-2020 at 01:38 PM.
  #150  
Old 04-18-2020, 02:21 PM
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California secession has come up before, e.g.:

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Is there some reason you don't want New York, some more New England states, and California?

I was ridiculing the California secessionist movement, but a merger with Canada might work out! I don't think Trumpia looks so formidable missing New York and the entire West Coast.

(Do you have any nuclear weapons up there? We'll need some deterrent capability against the short-tempered short-fingered guy; I've not decided if we should seize Nellis Air Force Base early on, or just make a pact with North Korea. )
Or, This thread started soon after The Catastrophe of 8 November 2016.
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