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  #51  
Old 04-11-2020, 06:06 PM
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Donald got, what, 52% of the white woman vote in '16 and won't do as well in November.
47% as per the link above your post( as opposed to 45% for Clinton ).
  #52  
Old 04-11-2020, 06:46 PM
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That's one possible answer. It's far from the only one, though.

Here's another: he has already whittled down his list to the most qualified/best candidates, and they are women (or possibly even a single woman). He considered several men earlier, but decided they weren't the best candidates.
I was hiring for an IT position once, and got 20 candidates (they were people whose qualifications passed a filter before getting to me). Of those 20, 2 were women. And they were not remotely qualified; I needed someone I could put to work right away diagnosing and fixing issues, and they basically had help desk experience, where they took calls and passed them on to technicians. Potentially trainable but I needed someone that could start right away, not a trainee.

So I knew I was only hiring a man. Not by deliberate choice. I was very disappointed that I wasnít able to give serious consideration to a woman candidate. Diversity matters to me. But I wasnít going to consider someone with no real experience just because of her gender.

So if Joe is going through a similar situation, where all of his potential running mates happen to be women, I find that plausible. Sometimes thatís what happens.
  #53  
Old 04-11-2020, 06:58 PM
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We kicked this around the other night. The VP candidate needs to bring the fire and brimstone to the campaign. That leaves out Kamala Harris. While she's smart and capable, the debates showed her to be too much like a hipster. Also, her attack on Biden as being senile won't be forgotten by him.

Warren is brilliant, a powerful debater, and can really rain down hell on the campaign trail, but what else does she bring? She's also 70 years old, which means that if Biden completes two terms, she's pushing 80. Not a great prospect for continuity.

Our choice is Stacey Abrams, as she can bring the southern voters and encourage black turnout. Not to mention she's smart and articulate and only 46 years old.
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Old 04-11-2020, 09:53 PM
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My feeling is Biden will 1) pick a woman
Why would you say that? Perhaps because he announced in a nationally televised debate that he would pick a woman? Sheesh.


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2) pick someone he can work with like he worked with Obama
A presidential candidate pick a VP that he can work with? Good God man, now you're onto something!


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3) pick someone who hasn’t fought against his plans.
This is a repeat of # 2 but with different wording.

Thank you for your groundbreaking political insight. I look forward to your return to this thread in a couple of months snarking about how you were right on all three counts.


And on another note, do we not merge identical threads together anymore? Didn't we cover this exact same topic over a several week long thread elsewhere?

Last edited by Win Place Show; 04-11-2020 at 09:56 PM.
  #55  
Old 04-11-2020, 10:13 PM
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And on another note, do we not merge identical threads together anymore? Didn't we cover this exact same topic over a several week long thread elsewhere?
I don't know. Did we?

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Originally Posted by Exapno Mapcase View Post
We did a long thread on this, Biden's Running Mate Prediction Thread, a couple of weeks ago. I don't think anything has changed since.
  #56  
Old 04-11-2020, 10:16 PM
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Except klobuchar brings neither electoral votes nor grassroots excitement from her failed presidential run. She's a boring moderate from Minnesota. There's a place in the cabinet I'm sure, but she adds nothing to a ticket that already has a somewhat lackluster main candidate.
Except Klobuchar keeps MN in the D column. It was very close in 2016.

Klobuchar would likely attract some folks in other upper Midwest states who may have sat it out or voted for DJT. I'm looking at WI, maybe IA. She might even draw a few votes in MI. Those are states that are crucial to a D win in November.

The press conference where she endorsed Biden showed me there was chemistry there, similar to Obama and Biden. Joe's speech after her speech was one of the best he has given in this entire campaign.
  #57  
Old 04-11-2020, 10:27 PM
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It can be explained easily: It isn't true.
Thank you for that link, that was a fascinating read! I knew the data can be "sliced and diced" all sorts of ways, but the way that author drilled down into the data was incredibly thorough.
  #58  
Old 04-12-2020, 12:19 AM
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From a pure marketing perspective, and woman brings along the most "undecided" voters. trump is white on white, with pence pandering to the evangelicals.

A woman on the ticket is a free option on a woman actually becoming the first female president given biden's age. If one happens to want a female as the president, the best odds in 2020 is as biden's veep either for death, senility or 2024. If you're a democratic leaning male, you still get joe, and who knows what happens in the future (the woman's place is in the home vote already goes to pence, so no need to try crossover).

I keep saying that a female general would be great marketing. Bring along more of the military vote.

Tammy Duckworth is growing on me. She's not a general, but as a Lieutenant Colonel was a lot more than "just a combat pilot that lost both legs in combat."

Still, from pure marketing, a black female general seems like a big draw to me. YMMV
  #59  
Old 04-12-2020, 12:42 AM
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We kicked this around the other night. The VP candidate needs to bring the fire and brimstone to the campaign. That leaves out Kamala Harris. While she's smart and capable, the debates showed her to be too much like a hipster. Also, her attack on Biden as being senile won't be forgotten by him.

Warren is brilliant, a powerful debater, and can really rain down hell on the campaign trail, but what else does she bring? She's also 70 years old, which means that if Biden completes two terms, she's pushing 80. Not a great prospect for continuity.

Our choice is Stacey Abrams, as she can bring the southern voters and encourage black turnout. Not to mention she's smart and articulate and only 46 years old.
I generally agree with you. I think she might be able to flip Georgia.
  #60  
Old 04-12-2020, 03:01 AM
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I generally agree with you. I think she might be able to flip Georgia.
Not impossible - Clinton won there in 1992, albeit with Perot siphoning off ~13% of the vote.

But color me skeptical. After all Abrams wasn't able to flip it in her own campaign. Georgia might be paler red than almost anywhere else in the deep south outside of North Carolina, but I dunno if it is all that purple. If Obama-Biden couldn't crack it( and they didn't really get close ), I'm doubtful Biden-Abrams would do that much better.

Last edited by Tamerlane; 04-12-2020 at 03:02 AM.
  #61  
Old 04-12-2020, 09:25 AM
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Biden is not picking Abrams whose highest office is Georgia state house. I don't believe any VP candidate in recent years was not at least a governor or senator or member of the house.

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  #62  
Old 04-12-2020, 10:22 AM
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Biden is not picking Abrams whose highest office is Georgia state house. I don't believe any VP candidate in recent years was not at least a governor or senator or member of the house.
We have a president whose highest office was game show host.
  #63  
Old 04-12-2020, 10:25 AM
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We lost Michigan by 10,000 votes in 2016. Currently Gov. Whitmer is sitting at 60% approval statewide, with only 22% disapproving. I can't help but think having her on the ticket would be a nice boost, not only in Michigan but in places like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin as well.

Picking someone based on if they come from a swing state comes down to wanting to appeal to those voters who actually know the person on the ticket. People know and like Whitmer and approve of her job as our state's executive, so the thought is that those voters would also approve of her as vice president/president.
Those results seem to be from a 3/24 poll....almost three weeks ago. I doubt its that high now.

I don't think a Governor from a hard hit state is a good idea since many of the same questions you want to be able to direct at Trump can also be directed at they.
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Old 04-12-2020, 10:42 AM
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4. Catherine Cortez Masto
3. Amy Klobuchar
2. Gretchen Whitmer
1. Kamala Harris

These four plus Val Demings make up the short list according to NBC News.

Quote:
Cortez Masto's name has also been mentioned in other recent reports about Biden selecting his potential running mates. On Tuesday, the Democratic 2020 frontrunner said he is whittling his list and will soon begin a vetting process. Although Biden declined to name any candidates, unnamed sources with direct knowledge of the matter told CNBC that Senators Kamala Harris and Amy Klobuchar are also on the shortlist, as well as Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer and Florida Rep. Val Demings.
https://www.newsweek.com/who-nevada-...s-vice-1494549

It is a good short list. Just leave Stacy Abrams off it ffs. She has less experience than Sarah Palin did.
  #65  
Old 04-12-2020, 11:15 AM
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We have a president whose highest office was game show host.
yes and he's one of the worst presidents in a long time. You could probably pick an American at random and he would do a better job than Trump
  #66  
Old 04-12-2020, 11:47 AM
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yes and he's one of the worst presidents in a long time. You could probably pick an American at random and he would do a better job than Trump
And therefore I don't think Abrams, a highly intelligent, well-spoken woman who rose to the highest position in the Democratic party in the Georgia state Senate, and has made fair elections a centerpiece of her life, is at all unqualified to be vice president or president.
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Old 04-12-2020, 12:07 PM
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the problem for Abrams is many people don't agree she is qualified. There are many women in the Dem party with far more experience than her so why pick her over Harris, Klobuchar, Whitmer, etc.?
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Old 04-12-2020, 12:17 PM
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the problem for Abrams is many people don't agree she is qualified.
Likewise, there are "many people" who think she is.

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There are many women in the Dem party with far more experience than her so why pick her over Harris, Klobuchar, Whitmer, etc.?
I'm not saying he should. You noted that her level of experience disqualified her. I'm saying it doesn't.
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Old 04-12-2020, 12:23 PM
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Do people put any other state senator on Biden's list? There are many women state senate and state house members . Does anyone seriously think he will pick Abrams?
  #70  
Old 04-12-2020, 11:57 PM
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Kamala Harris. It will be a Biden-Harris ticket, and they will run roughshod over Chump. You heard it from me first.
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  #71  
Old 04-13-2020, 01:48 AM
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Kamala Harris. It will be a Biden-Harris ticket, and they will run roughshod over Chump. You heard it from me first.
I picked Harris as VP here.

You can take credit for "roughshod," though.
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  #72  
Old 04-13-2020, 05:52 AM
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Why would you say that? Perhaps because he announced in a nationally televised debate that he would pick a woman? Sheesh.




A presidential candidate pick a VP that he can work with? Good God man, now you're onto something!




This is a repeat of # 2 but with different wording.

Thank you for your groundbreaking political insight. I look forward to your return to this thread in a couple of months snarking about how you were right on all three counts.


And on another note, do we not merge identical threads together anymore? Didn't we cover this exact same topic over a several week long thread elsewhere?
Thank you for being snarky without actually saying anything. It was really insightful as well.

1. Of course he already said he would pick a woman. It would be stupid to go back on that but he could.

2. He had a unique VP relationship with Obama. VP picks are not always picked as a partner. You think Trump cared about his working relationship with Pence? Or McCain with Palin? He didnít even know her. Many times the VP is picked to check off different boxes whether itís demographics or regions. Having a good working relationship is not automatically a priority. I believe it will be for Biden which makes it less likely to be someone like Abrams who I donít believe he really knows personally. VPs have often been placed on the sideline and used to go to funerals and other unimportant tasks. Saying that having a VP who can work directly with the president in a meaningful way on important tasks as a priority is not what most are predicting.

3. No itís not a repeat of #2. Itís not even in the same category. Reagan picked Bush and won. The Reagan Bush primary was brutal. You still hear the term Voodoo Economics every now and then and that was coined by Bush against Reagan. Many say he should pick Warren to bring in the left of the party. Maybe that makes some sense as a strategy but Biden will not do it.

The bottom line is that Biden had a uniquely close relationship with his president. It was closer to a partnership than most. That relationship will influence his pick for VP. That goes against what many think will be the deciding factors. Conventional wisdom says to pick along racial/demographic/regional lines to bring in votes. Those will be discussed but I believe Bidenís main priority will be someone he can work along side like he did with Obama.
  #73  
Old 04-13-2020, 08:51 AM
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The bottom line is that Biden had a uniquely close relationship with his president. It was closer to a partnership than most.
Clinton/Gore, Bush/Cheney, and Obama/Biden were all close relationships. Historically these are outliers but it's understandable if some might consider it the normal practice.
  #74  
Old 04-13-2020, 12:52 PM
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4. Catherine Cortez Masto
3. Amy Klobuchar
2. Gretchen Whitmer
1. Kamala Harris

These four plus Val Demings make up the short list according to NBC News.



https://www.newsweek.com/who-nevada-...s-vice-1494549

It is a good short list. Just leave Stacy Abrams off it ffs. She has less experience than Sarah Palin did.
I'm not sold on Abrams but how do you figure she has less than Palin? Unless you count being mayor of a town of 5000 the same as representing a large part of Atlanta?
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Old 04-13-2020, 01:21 PM
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I'm not sold on Abrams but how do you figure she has less than Palin? Unless you count being mayor of a town of 5000 the same as representing a large part of Atlanta?
I'm no Palin fan, but she actually got elected as the Governor of her state.
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Old 04-13-2020, 01:26 PM
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Clinton/Gore, Bush/Cheney, and Obama/Biden were all close relationships. Historically these are outliers but it's understandable if some might consider it the normal practice.
Agreed although I wouldnít put Clinton/Gore on quite the same level. I also believe that developed over time and was not the reason for the pick.
  #77  
Old 04-13-2020, 02:08 PM
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Not a good looking one...


I'm going to be serious here although I'm afraid that some of what I say won't sound that way:

1. I don't know why he had to paint himself into a corner on "Going to pick a Woman" no matter what. He needs to pick who is "Best for the job" and maybe that will be a woman. As it stands, whatever woman he picks, even if she was the best regardless of gender, will always be seen as the best woman he could get that he could deal with.

2. So he now HAS to pick a woman. He'd better not pick a good looking one. Now for most of these that I've seen listed, I don't think this is a factor. I don't know why, but women the women that he's counting on to vote for him because of her will HATE her if she's good looking and it won't matter how smart or qualified she is. Maybe it's because the media will tend to pick on her if she's pretty... or maybe women voters are a jealous bunch... or maybe because to voters in general, a good looking one will be assumed to be a witch, or have had everything given to them their whole life... But a good looking one won't work.

Last edited by Sdowiat; 04-13-2020 at 02:11 PM.
  #78  
Old 04-13-2020, 07:40 PM
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The first point is good, and is basically what I've been saying. It's a huge blunder and it will cost him the election.

I kind of get what you are saying in the second point, its just a reality that liberals say doesn't exist. It's like the point I was making of having the pick be a black woman.

Bottom line is he backed himself into a corner for no reason and for no benefit. This huge mistake right at the start backs up the conservative narrative that he has lost a step mentally.
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Old 04-13-2020, 07:54 PM
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Note too that some metoo crap is popping up against him now. Now that he is the nominee. What BS, we are being played.

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Old 04-13-2020, 07:54 PM
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Kamala Harris. It will be a Biden-Harris ticket, and they will run roughshod over Chump. You heard it from me first.
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I picked Harris as VP here.

You can take credit for "roughshod," though.
My dream VP pick would be Tammy Duckworth. She'd make an excellent attack dog against President Bonespurs.
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  #81  
Old 04-13-2020, 11:57 PM
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I have no idea why people keep pushing Harris.

Democrat people of color didn't vote for her. Women didn't vote for her. The California machine keeps her going in California, but she isn't smart. She took actions that badly affected people of color disproportionally as AG, and she has done nothing as Senator.
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Old 04-14-2020, 12:00 AM
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^ I personally know numerous people of color who did not know that Kamala Harris was a person of color during the time that she was running.
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Old 04-14-2020, 05:44 AM
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I'm not big on Harris, from a political perspective, because I think she ran a pretty poor primary campaign from a management perspective (bad choices about money and hiring, for example). Because this VP choice has a significant likelihood of being the party nominee at some point in the future, I think it's very important that they have high quality political skills.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 04-14-2020 at 05:45 AM.
  #84  
Old 04-14-2020, 10:13 AM
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1. I don't know why he had to paint himself into a corner on "Going to pick a Woman" no matter what. He needs to pick who is "Best for the job" and maybe that will be a woman. As it stands, whatever woman he picks, even if she was the best regardless of gender, will always be seen as the best woman he could get that he could deal with.
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The first point is good, and is basically what I've been saying. It's a huge blunder and it will cost him the election.
Who is this mythical 'Best for the job' person, and how do you determine them? For 200+ years, people like me (white heterosexual males) were the only ones considered for office, and we ended up with some good, some bad, most meh.

Limiting the pool to women doesn't change that much at all.
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Old 04-14-2020, 10:49 AM
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Besides, it's Vice President of the United States. Not like they do much unless the President wants them to. Historically (well since the 12th Amendment) it's just been someone to balance a ticket.

Vice President John Nance Garner famously called the job "not worth a bucket of warm piss"
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Old 04-14-2020, 10:55 AM
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Besides, it's Vice President of the United States. Not like they do much unless the President wants them to. Historically (well since the 12th Amendment) it's just been someone to balance a ticket.
Historically, we havenít yet had an octogenarian president, which is presumably why Bidenís VP pick will maybe be a bigger deal than one would usually expect.
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Old 04-14-2020, 11:31 AM
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Besides, it's Vice President of the United States. Not like they do much unless the President wants them to. Historically (well since the 12th Amendment) it's just been someone to balance a ticket.

Vice President John Nance Garner famously called the job "not worth a bucket of warm piss"
The real takeaway to Garner's quote is that UNDER FDR - who wanted no fucking help - is was worth that.

Under someone else? Maybe you can get something done. Under an 80 year old who had an example of a shared presidency to work from? Could be worth a lot.
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Old 04-14-2020, 11:36 AM
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The real takeaway to Garner's quote is that UNDER FDR - who wanted no fucking help - is was worth that.

Under someone else? Maybe you can get something done. Under an 80 year old who had an example of a shared presidency to work from? Could be worth a lot.
Right, so the "best choice for the job" may just be who Biden thinks he can work well with. Saying he's hamstrung himself by picking a women is silly, because the role of best choice for VP is what the President determines it to be.
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Old 04-14-2020, 11:38 AM
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Historically, we havenít yet had an octogenarian president, which is presumably why Bidenís VP pick will maybe be a bigger deal than one would usually expect.
It will be a much bigger deal. Who he picks is very important. That doesnít mean necessarily that his choice will get him more electoral votes.
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Old 04-14-2020, 12:28 PM
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It will be a much bigger deal. Who he picks is very important. That doesnít mean necessarily that his choice will get him more electoral votes.
Biden needs at a minimum to pick someone who will not cost him votes. That lets out Warren, who is a) divisive and b) old.

The Democratic VP candidate obviously will be female, and should be acceptable as a 2024 (or sooner) candidate-in-waiting. Klobuchar would "balance" the ticket in terms of representing a presumed appeal to non-coastal megalopolis voters. It wouldn't surprise me if a relative unknown was selected, as Presidential candidates don't seem to like sharing a ticket with VP choices who might outdo them in popularity.
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Old 04-14-2020, 02:33 PM
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I'm a bit surprised CNN left Hillary off of their list.
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Old 04-14-2020, 02:41 PM
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It wouldn't surprise me if a relative unknown was selected, as Presidential candidates don't seem to like sharing a ticket with VP choices who might outdo them in popularity.
It's not unheard of though. Bill Clinton picked Al Gore, who definitely was better known than Clinton when the primaries started. Reagan picked Bush, who was pretty well known. Granted both Clinton and Reagan could give a speech between than the VP candidates, but if things went south on them, their VPs could easily have ended up more popular.
  #93  
Old 04-14-2020, 04:22 PM
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I was hiring for an IT position once, and got 20 candidates (they were people whose qualifications passed a filter before getting to me). Of those 20, 2 were women. And they were not remotely qualified; I needed someone I could put to work right away diagnosing and fixing issues, and they basically had help desk experience, where they took calls and passed them on to technicians. Potentially trainable but I needed someone that could start right away, not a trainee.

So I knew I was only hiring a man. Not by deliberate choice. I was very disappointed that I wasnít able to give serious consideration to a woman candidate. Diversity matters to me. But I wasnít going to consider someone with no real experience just because of her gender.

So if Joe is going through a similar situation, where all of his potential running mates happen to be women, I find that plausible. Sometimes thatís what happens.
As a lawyer, I've had things happen except with the best candidates being women.
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Old 04-14-2020, 04:23 PM
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we kicked this around the other night. The vp candidate needs to bring the fire and brimstone to the campaign. That leaves out kamala harris. While she's smart and capable, the debates showed her to be too much like a hipster. Also, her attack on biden as being senile won't be forgotten by him.
iswydt
  #95  
Old 04-14-2020, 10:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Damuri Ajashi View Post
iswydt
What did he do there besides leaving a straight line just hanging there? JUST HANGING THERE, for pete's sake!
  #96  
Old 04-14-2020, 11:11 PM
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What did he do there besides leaving a straight line just hanging there? JUST HANGING THERE, for pete's sake!
"Won't be forgotten by him" because he's not senile after all.
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  #97  
Old 04-15-2020, 07:12 AM
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I'm a bit surprised CNN left Hillary off of their list.
They also skipped Eleanor Roosevelt.
  #98  
Old 04-15-2020, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by QuickSilver View Post
Keep 'em coming, everybody. There are no stupid suggestions.
Biden gets an email from Gabbard hoping for a nice, quiet, little dinner somewhere to "intimately probe into matters on a much, much deeper level than we ever have, ever before, Joe" as Biden goes doy-yoy-yoy-yoy-ying.

Eric Trump would also be an incredibly stupid suggestion.

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Originally Posted by Happy Lendervedder View Post
She would be Tim Kaine in a dress with a hot dish recipe, imo.
raaawrr

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Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
I'd prefer Tammy Duckworth if we're going military. She'd evicerate Pence in the debates, and she'd be able to go toe to toe against anything Trump said about the military. She lost her legs in a helicopter crash while serving in the military.
While not my pick, would definitely bust out the popcorn over that.

Not mentioned in this thread (maybe the other VP one?):

Katie 'No Bullshit' Porter. Not only my pick, but I'd also have not even the slightest qualm seeing her snatch the presidency for '24 AND '28. Mark my words - her ascendancy, over the next few years, will be meteoric, effectively kicking Washington in the fucking balls. She supports all the main democrat policy points, but also has more fire and brimstone than the entire D. party combined, which is, yeah, kinda needed right now. Her "lack of experience" is an absolute and complete nothingburger - if anyone actually thinks she'd be floundering in her own incompetence in high office, think again.
  #99  
Old 04-15-2020, 08:10 PM
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democrat
+ ic



fuck these continuing time-outs royally.

Last edited by Guest-starring: Id!; 04-15-2020 at 08:11 PM.
  #100  
Old 04-15-2020, 10:38 PM
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This evening, Rachel Maddow asked Elizabeth Warren, who was being interviewed for another reason, if she would be Biden's VP if he asked her, and she replied with one word.

SPOILER:
That word was "Yes."
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