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Old 04-18-2020, 08:18 PM
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How has the census been progressing?


In all the news about coronavirus, I haven't heard anything about how the census was progressing. And a quick google and search of the census site yielded little.

Anyone got any dope as to how well it is progressing? Whether it seems to be yielding accurate, complete, and objective results?

Wasn't sure of the correct forum, but thought, since it WILL determine representation, and since the current administration seemed to be trying to influence the process (such as the citizenship question)...
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Old 04-18-2020, 08:48 PM
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I did mine a few days late. Honestly, I was suprised at how much information I had to share. Full name, fucking phone number. I filled it out. I know it's important, but Uncle Sam needs my fucking phne number, middle name and shit? I'm 51 years old, and I don't remember ever participating in a census before, and I promise you, with the level of detail they we're drilling down to, lots of people are going to ignore it. What a shame.
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Old 04-19-2020, 09:17 AM
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The state populations found by the census will determine the apportionment of the House of Reps, the Electoral College, as well as various state financial benefits. Since the 2020 census will affect 2 Presidential elections and 5 Congressional elections, the political value is large.

The approximate state populations are no secret, of course; the Census Bureau itself prepares annual estimates. If present estimates turn out to be correct the effect on the House of Reps will be:
Changes to House Apportionment after 2020 Census
+3 TX
+2 FL
+1 AZ, CO, MT, NC, OR
-1 AL, CA, IL, MI, MN, NY, OH, PA, RI, WV
(Some projections show that instead of CA or MN losing a seat, NY might lose a 2nd seat) There are many ways for the census report to go awry, especially with virus quarantines. Too bad betting is no longer allowed at SDMB: I don't think the present Administration will be able to resist the temptation to abuse the Census. I'll be surprised if the red-favoring +TX+FL-CA-NY result is only 7. (A little jiggling might also enable Alabama to keep its 9 seats.)

For comparison:
Changes to House Apportionment after 2010 Census
+4 TX
+2 FL
+1 AZ, GA, NV, SC, UT, WA
-1 IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MO, NJ, PA
-2 NY, OH
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Old 04-19-2020, 03:12 PM
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Originally Posted by septimus View Post
(Some projections show that instead of CA or MN losing a seat, NY might lose a 2nd seat)
Doing the numbers I see that if Alabama gets a teeny 0.06% over-count while New York gets a teeny 0.06% under-count, then New York loses two seats and red-blooded Alabama (instead of blue CA or MN) gets the extra seat to stay at 9.

New York has already lost about 0.06% of its population to Covid-19; I can imagine easy ways to "correct" the numbers and count those deaths twice.

If gambling were legal here, I'd bet that New York does lose two House seats. There's a good chance Alabama will have its population count goosed and stay at 9 Seats.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
(It's irrelevant, but if my arithmetic is correct then either the Hamilton-Vinton algorithm or the Webster algorithm ó algorithms used in the past before Congress finally settled on the Hamilton-Hill algorithm ó would deprive Montana of the new Seat it gets under Hamilton-Hill, and give that seat to Alabama.)
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Old 04-19-2020, 04:19 PM
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On the local news the other day, the talking-head said that 41% of the population had completed the census.

I wondered to myself, "How could they know that???"

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Old 04-19-2020, 10:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobot View Post
I did mine a few days late. Honestly, I was suprised at how much information I had to share. Full name, fucking phone number. I filled it out. I know it's important, but Uncle Sam needs my fucking phne number, middle name and shit? I'm 51 years old, and I don't remember ever participating in a census before, and I promise you, with the level of detail they we're drilling down to, lots of people are going to ignore it. What a shame.
Full name seems pretty obvious to me. The full name is a lot more unique than first and last. How many John Smith's are there vs John Waldo Smith?

I just did mine and the phone number was requested in case they need to verify information. Not sure if it was voluntary or not.
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Old 04-20-2020, 10:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bobot View Post
I did mine a few days late. Honestly, I was suprised at how much information I had to share. Full name, fucking phone number. I filled it out. I know it's important, but Uncle Sam needs my fucking phne number, middle name and shit? I'm 51 years old, and I don't remember ever participating in a census before, and I promise you, with the level of detail they we're drilling down to, lots of people are going to ignore it. What a shame.
On the contrary, I was surprised at how little was asked. I’ve seen old census records (1940 and earlier). The 1940 census asked many more questions (total of 34 questions) including value of home or monthly rental, level of education, place of birth, employment status, income, etc. Five percent of people were asked an additional 16 questions.

The 2020 census didn’t ask very much at all, IMHO. Basically full name, DOB, where you live, and ethnicity/national origin.

Also, I’m the same age as you, and clearly remember filling out the 2010 and 2000 census forms. They were paper forms in which you filled in bubbles. I didn’t respond to any census forms in 1990 or earlier because I wasn’t the head of my household then.

If anyone is curious, here is a summary of the questions that have been asked on every U.S. census:
https://www.census.gov/history/www/t..._of_questions/

Last edited by robby; 04-20-2020 at 10:20 AM.
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Old 04-20-2020, 10:38 AM
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Both my kids came home from college after I filled out my census form. I did not count them, per the instructions, because at that time they would not be living at home on April 1st. A day or two after I submitted my form, I got word that their schools were closing for the year and I moved them home. They were not counted at school. I submitted a question to the Census website asking how it should be handled, because as matters currently stood these two people were not being counted. I never received an answer. Multiply my two students by a whole nation of college students who were not counted by either their parents or their schools....

I eventually submitted another form, without the identifier code they sent me to use, and counted them as residents at my address. I hope it worked.
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Old 04-20-2020, 11:47 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gatopescado View Post
On the local news the other day, the talking-head said that 41% of the population had completed the census.

I wondered to myself, "How could they know that???"

All winking aside, what they probably meant is that 41% of all mailed out census forms have already been completed.
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Old 04-20-2020, 01:28 PM
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A neighbor of mine who works for the census bureau (but not on the decennial effort) said something about the deadline being extended 4 months. Door-to-door visits are not being done.
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Old 04-20-2020, 01:50 PM
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Originally Posted by enalzi View Post
All winking aside, what they probably meant is that 41% of all mailed out census forms have already been completed.
Or they already have a count for the number of people who completed the census on-line (that's how I did mine about four weeks ago).
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Old 04-20-2020, 03:40 PM
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Originally Posted by robby View Post
On the contrary, I was surprised at how little was asked. Iíve seen old census records (1940 and earlier). The 1940 census asked many more questions (total of 34 questions) including value of home or monthly rental, level of education, place of birth, employment status, income, etc. Five percent of people were asked an additional 16 questions. ...

That's my issue, though. I wouldn't have minded these questions if I could have kept my name and phone number to myself.
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