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  #51  
Old 04-27-2020, 01:05 PM
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And look at her picture. I am more scared of her than him.
It comes down to how politically deft she is in terms of rewarding loyalists and punishing enemies.

If Kim dies now or in the near future, anyone who takes over is going to have monumental challenges. I agree that Kim Yo Jong might be tested being a female in a patriarchal society, but they could be in for a nasty surprise if they do.

But supposing they do finish off the Kims' grip on power, and let's say that the military generals rule. Would they agree to share power? Would they agree on that power structure? I'm just thinking of Egypt as an example, where it's clear that the military respects the chain of command and the general is the alpha and omega of that chain. I'm honestly not sure what the hierarchy looks like if the Kims are no longer the symbol of power in North Korea.

Last edited by asahi; 04-27-2020 at 01:06 PM.
  #52  
Old 04-27-2020, 01:59 PM
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If Kim dies now or in the near future, anyone who takes over is going to have monumental challenges.
Most funeral homes will send people over to collect the body. Just roll him onto a sheet and have ten people lift it from each side.
  #53  
Old 04-27-2020, 02:09 PM
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For his father's death:

According to Daily NK, anyone who did not participate in the organised mourning sessions or did not seem genuine enough in their sorrow has been sentenced to at least six months in a labour camp.
  #54  
Old 04-27-2020, 05:19 PM
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Speaking of Wonsan, satellite data appears to show something's going on there - his train has been there since last week:

https://www.38north.org/2020/04/wonsancompound042520/
Isnít the simplest explanation expoanation that coronavirus is rampant in North Korea? The NK govít canít publicly admit that their Glorious Leader has allowed a foreign disease into the country, so everything is continuing just as normal in the news media ęNothing to see here, move along, all is well under the Glorious Kimís great leadershipĽ.

But behind the scenes, Kim has hopped on his train and is self-isolating away from the areas where the disease is rampant, and will move on again if it pops up anywhere near him.

That would also explain the rumours of a Chinese medical delegation - not to treat Kim, but to give advice about how the coronavirus spreads and possible containment measures.
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  #55  
Old 04-27-2020, 06:29 PM
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Isnít the simplest explanation expoanation that coronavirus is rampant in North Korea? The NK govít canít publicly admit that their Glorious Leader has allowed a foreign disease into the country, so everything is continuing just as normal in the news media ęNothing to see here, move along, all is well under the Glorious Kimís great leadershipĽ.
I can't imagine any place less likely than NK to get the virus. Sealed borders, few visitors. If by some chance it ever took hold, they could easily lock down localities as needed.

If he's dead, we'll know when the new leader emerges. I don't think they dare risk revealing a death at the top until the new Kim is unveiled.
  #56  
Old 04-27-2020, 06:38 PM
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Containment measures require an admission by officials that the virus is here.

Do you want to be the local medical officer to send the news up the chain of command that coronavirus is in your region and you can’t contain it?
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  #57  
Old 04-27-2020, 06:55 PM
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Trump claims he has a good idea of his status but won't talk about it.
  #58  
Old 04-27-2020, 07:08 PM
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I can't imagine any place less likely than NK to get the virus. Sealed borders, few visitors. If by some chance it ever took hold, they could easily lock down localities as needed.
The border with South Korea is difficult to cross, but there is quite a bit of coming and going over the border with China. Chinese people, in particular, can easily come into North Korea. So there's absolutely zero reason to think that the country is free of the virus.
  #59  
Old 04-27-2020, 07:11 PM
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Containment measures require an admission by officials that the virus is here.

Do you want to be the local medical officer to send the news up the chain of command that coronavirus is in your region and you canít contain it?
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  #60  
Old 04-27-2020, 07:25 PM
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Trump claims he has a good idea of his status but won't talk about it.
That's hilarious.
  #61  
Old 04-27-2020, 09:36 PM
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Isnít the simplest explanation expoanation that coronavirus is rampant in North Korea? The NK govít canít publicly admit that their Glorious Leader has allowed a foreign disease into the country, so everything is continuing just as normal in the news media ęNothing to see here, move along, all is well under the Glorious Kimís great leadershipĽ.

But behind the scenes, Kim has hopped on his train and is self-isolating away from the areas where the disease is rampant, and will move on again if it pops up anywhere near him.

That would also explain the rumours of a Chinese medical delegation - not to treat Kim, but to give advice about how the coronavirus spreads and possible containment measures.
Quite possible, indeed.
  #62  
Old 04-27-2020, 10:09 PM
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That's hilarious.
Mr Kim dies. Ms Kim takes over. Trimp sends congratulations. Hilarity ensues. Or nukes.
  #63  
Old 04-27-2020, 10:25 PM
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I read that as ęHillary ensues.Ľ. What, in Trump’s White House?
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  #64  
Old 04-27-2020, 10:32 PM
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Trimp sends congratulations. Hilarity ensues.
Lock her up!
  #65  
Old 04-28-2020, 01:20 AM
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Mr Kim dies. Ms Kim takes over. Trimp sends congratulations. Hilarity ensues. Or nukes.
I was thinking about something like this for the weirdest election scenario thread. Kim Jong-un passes on. His sister takes over. Trump wants to meet her in person and when he does, greets her in the manner he is accustomed to greeting women in. The resulting scuffle between bodyguards does not turn out well for anyone. Pence is informed he is now President but we are at war with North Korea, whose new leader will only call the war off if he apologizes to her in person, by himself. Pence has a heart attack on the spot. Nancy Pelosi becomes President, calls the leader of NK. They are both laughing so hard they call off the war.
  #66  
Old 04-28-2020, 10:09 AM
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Quite possible, indeed.
South Korea is thinking along the same lines:

North Korea's absent Kim may be trying to avoid coronavirus: South Korean cabinet minister

Quote:
Fear of catching the coronavirus could have kept North Korean leader Kim Jong Un away from state ceremonies for a key holiday in mid-April, a South Korean minister said on Tuesday as speculation swirled over Kim's whereabouts and health.
...
South Korea's Unification Minister Kim Yeon-chul, who oversees engagement with the North, said it was plausible that Kim decided against attending because of the coronavirus, given the stringent steps his government has taken to head off an outbreak.

"It is true that he had never missed the anniversary for Kim Il Sung's birthday since he took power, but many anniversary events including celebrations and a banquet had been cancelled because of coronavirus concerns," the unification minister told a parliamentary hearing.
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  #67  
Old 04-28-2020, 01:27 PM
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I was thinking about something like this for the weirdest election scenario thread. Kim Jong-un passes on. His sister takes over. Trump wants to meet her in person and when he does, greets her in the manner he is accustomed to greeting women in. The resulting scuffle between bodyguards does not turn out well for anyone. Pence is informed he is now President but we are at war with North Korea, whose new leader will only call the war off if he apologizes to her in person, by himself. Pence has a heart attack on the spot. Nancy Pelosi becomes President, calls the leader of NK. They are both laughing so hard they call off the war.
Lovely!
  #68  
Old 04-30-2020, 03:02 PM
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Taiwan's intelligence head says dear leader is sick. No specifics beyond that .
  #69  
Old 04-30-2020, 03:08 PM
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Taiwan's intelligence head says dear leader is sick. No specifics beyond that .
I am a bit skeptical that Taiwan would have more knowledge about this than what South Korea is willing to reveal (given that North Korea is a low intelligence priority for Taiwan but it is of immense importance to South Korean intelligence.) Taiwan could be wrong, or South Korea knows too and is being tight-lipped about Kim being ill.
  #70  
Old 04-30-2020, 05:19 PM
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It wouldn't hurt my feelings if Un has croaked. However they say his sister would become the dictator and apparently she is just as ruthless as Un.
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  #71  
Old 04-30-2020, 05:38 PM
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If thereís any leader on this planet who would have the easiest time imposing social distancing measures, itís Kim Jong-Un. He never directly interacts with members of the general public, and the countryís (which was already isolated from the rest of the world to begin with) been on lockdown since February. Iím not sure what South Koreaís endgame is behind these explanations for Jong-Unís absence, but they donít pass muster at all.
  #72  
Old 04-30-2020, 06:25 PM
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Even with a completely closed border, the virus could spread. One study found coronavirides floating on particles of air pollution. I think this explanation (virus in NK) is possible, but why such a long duration?
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  #73  
Old 04-30-2020, 06:36 PM
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It wouldn't hurt my feelings if Un has croaked. However they say his sister would become the dictator and apparently she is just as ruthless as Un.
Karen Jong Un?
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  #74  
Old 04-30-2020, 07:01 PM
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Even with a completely closed border, the virus could spread...
And the border isn't completely closed. Once the virus crosses it, a spread in NK is just as likely and fast as other places in the world.

North Korea isn't exactly known for thinly distributing their citizens. Indeed, plump leader likes the adoration of crowds and lavish human displays, the ideal breeding ground for such a phenomena.
  #75  
Old 04-30-2020, 11:12 PM
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Trump claims he has a good idea of his status but won't talk about it.
In fairness, as president of US of A with its myriad intelligence agencies Trump probably has as much good info on the subject as anyone outside of Kim's immediate circle. My WAG is: if Kim is dead, Trump probably knows about it.

There is no reason for him to brag about knowing secrets, though. What an asshole.
  #76  
Old 04-30-2020, 11:17 PM
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Even with a completely closed border, the virus could spread. One study found coronavirides floating on particles of air pollution. I think this explanation (virus in NK) is possible, but why such a long duration?
There are a few international flights in and out of Pyongyang every week, and isn't there some contact between people at the borders?
  #77  
Old 05-01-2020, 09:28 AM
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N. Korean defector who is a S. Korea lawmaker said he's 99% sure Kim is pining for the fjords.
  #78  
Old 05-01-2020, 10:09 AM
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N. Korean defector who is a S. Korea lawmaker said he's 99% sure Kim is pining for the fjords.
Maybe he's hearing the old jingle in his head "Have you driven a fjord, lately?"

NK does have more tools at its disposal to contain the virus if it entered. Being a police state, they could enforce social distancing with an iron fist or if a village is full of covid, go in and massacre the populace.
  #79  
Old 05-01-2020, 10:14 AM
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Karen Jong Un?
She is already talking to your manager...
  #80  
Old 05-01-2020, 11:17 AM
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NY Times:

But this year alone, Mr. Kim disappeared for 21 days between Jan. 26 and Feb. 16, and for 19 days between March 22 and April 10.

And he's had other periods where he was not seen in public, one of them was 41 days.
  #81  
Old 05-01-2020, 05:18 PM
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He's looking pretty mobile for a coronavirus heart attack victim.

Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52508437

This is why I avoid rumors about North Korea.
  #82  
Old 05-01-2020, 05:26 PM
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A file photo accompanied that report from the BBC. North Korean state media did not provide pictures of Kim Jong-un at the opening of the Trump factory.
  #83  
Old 05-01-2020, 05:29 PM
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This is why I avoid rumors about North Korea.
To be fair, the report that he was spotted in public comes from state media, with no photos or other proof, and no confirmation from any other source. I'd classify that as nothing more than a rumor as well.
  #84  
Old 05-01-2020, 05:38 PM
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To be fair, the report that he was spotted in public comes from state media, with no photos or other proof, and no confirmation from any other source. I'd classify that as nothing more than a rumor as well.
I'd take that as a confirmation he's in a very bad way if not dead. If he was well, why wouldn't they have photos, videos, live broadcasts?
  #85  
Old 05-01-2020, 05:54 PM
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I'd take that as a confirmation he's in a very bad way if not dead. If he was well, why wouldn't they have photos, videos, live broadcasts?
His body double doesn't really look that much like him? Otherwise, why not break out the HD video?

I'm with you; this doesn't prove anything, except they haven't declared a successor to Un.
  #86  
Old 05-01-2020, 06:15 PM
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Advanced DPRK biotechnology is now achieving the sacred goal of cloning the Dear Respected so his supreme wisdom may deliver his people to paradise for decades to come.

Last edited by RioRico; 05-01-2020 at 06:16 PM.
  #87  
Old 05-01-2020, 06:32 PM
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South Korea clones dogs. So maybe he snuck across the border.
  #88  
Old 05-01-2020, 07:51 PM
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Supreme Leader Kim Jong Un Cuts Tape For Completion Of Sunchon Phosphatic Fertilizer Factory," the Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) reported.

You couldn't write satire like this.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/01/asia/...cna/index.html
  #89  
Old 05-01-2020, 07:55 PM
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They did post a picture of him cutting the ribbon. I have no idea if it is real, though.
  #90  
Old 05-01-2020, 09:08 PM
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Looks real enough I guess. But I saw a picture the other day of Scarlett Johansen, well I won't say more nudge nudge, wink wink, that looked a lot more realistic. Close up. You would think the North Korean government would have the technology to put out a better fake photo, if it is fake.

Which leads me to believe that maybe it is not fake, who knows?

Someday very soon there will be the ability to create fake videos of anyone doing anything the creator wants them to do. It's already being done but you can tell they are fake. What happens when you can't? When what you see on your computer or phone can't be distinguished from reality. But that's another thread.
  #91  
Old 05-01-2020, 09:12 PM
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Looks real enough I guess. But I saw a picture the other day of Scarlett Johansen, well I won't say more nudge nudge, wink wink, that looked a lot more realistic. Close up. You would think the North Korean government would have the technology to put out a better fake photo, if it is fake.

Which leads me to believe that maybe it is not fake, who knows?

Someday very soon there will be the ability to create fake videos of anyone doing anything the creator wants them to do. It's already being done but you can tell they are fake. What happens when you can't? When what you see on your computer or phone can't be distinguished from reality. But that's another thread.
Even if it's real, there's nothing to indicate when it was taken.
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Old 05-14-2020, 02:42 PM
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A few of his top aides may be sleeping with the fishes

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200513000766
  #93  
Old 05-14-2020, 07:57 PM
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I agree that Kim Yo Jong might be tested being a female in a patriarchal society, but they could be in for a nasty surprise if they do.
Jumping in here late with this, but one reason why Kim Yo-jong may have such a prominent place in her brother's regime is because Kim Jong-un may know she's not a threat. As long as the DPRK government won't follow a female ruler, Jong-un can give power to Yo-jong and know she won't try to take his place.
  #94  
Old 05-14-2020, 11:50 PM
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A few of his top aides may be sleeping with the fishes

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20200513000766
That report refers to changes made months ago, and doesn't suggest much of an internal battle.
  #95  
Old 05-16-2020, 07:01 AM
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they took down big pictures of him and his father
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Old 05-25-2020, 10:12 AM
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He cut a ribbon at the start of May and disappeared for three weeks. He returned to the public eye yesterday to preside over a meeting of the Central Military Commission and as my N. Korea analyst friend pointed out he 'looked like he’d been in a sauna for an hour fully clothed.'

https://asiatimes.com/2020/05/kim-re...ke-deterrence/
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