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Old 04-24-2020, 12:02 AM
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Study: Elderly Trump voters dying of coronavirus could cost him in November


Or: Branch Covidians on their way to Waco:
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“The pandemic is going to take a greater toll on the conservative electorate leading into this election — and that’s simply just a calculation of age,” Andrew Johnson, the lead author and a professor of management at Texas A&M University-Corpus Christi, said in an interview. “The virus is killing more older voters, and in many states that’s the key to a GOP victory.”

[snip]

William Galston, a Brookings Institution scholar on governance, said the effects are large enough only to affect outcomes in states that are very narrowly divided. But he concluded the study made sense.

Trump supporters, especially in Greater Appalachia, tend to be older and heavier, traits correlated with underlying conditions that make Covid-19 more lethal, he said. Smoking levels — another leading indicator of vulnerability — also tend to be higher in red areas.
In other words, the GOP should stop the God-Emperor from suggesting people inject disinfectant before he kills off too much of the base.
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Old 04-24-2020, 09:54 AM
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I'm not sure really. A lot of the people who die of coronavirus are probably going to die of some other old age disease pretty soon anyway.

In the US we have about 3 million deaths a year, the vast majority occurring among people over the age of 60.
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Old 04-24-2020, 10:19 AM
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Of the ~50,000 U.S. deaths reported so far, more than 30% have been in New York, a reliably blue state.
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Old 04-24-2020, 01:45 PM
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Clicking though, it is a very simplistic study.

The article about it brings up one issue. The death totals it assumes are based on a period when predictions were much higher than the trend we were on. For predictive value the study seems to have been overcome by events unless there is a large second wave that strikes swing states.

A bigger issue is that it uses national demographics and national fatality numbers to predict the influence. Everything else is ignored. Things like race and its correlation with both the fatality rate and voting patterns are ignored. Very importantly, where people live is ignored. The disease does not affect areas uniformly. Living in the urban cores of our largest cities is strongly associated with voting Democratic. It is also associated with higher chances of being infected thanks to higher population density . Michigan is a great example. The margin was wafer thin last cycle and they have the third highest number of deaths in the nation. Michigan infection and deaths have dominantly fallen on the counties of the Detroit metro area. That area is a Democratic stronghold. The areas where Republicans dominate are relatively lightly affected.

The study has an interesting idea but the execution lacks IMO.

Last edited by DinoR; 04-24-2020 at 01:46 PM.
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Old 04-24-2020, 04:03 PM
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I'm not sure really. A lot of the people who die of coronavirus are probably going to die of some other old age disease pretty soon anyway.

In the US we have about 3 million deaths a year, the vast majority occurring among people over the age of 60.
Corona takes people who were liable to die in the next couple of years and makes them die this year instead. It's sort of like a fast-forward.

Except, at the same time, people generally become more partisan with time. There won't be a similar fast-forward there.

Corona also takes out men more than women. Trump voters are mostly male.

In terms of demographics, Trump is either going to screw himself on the economy or on protecting the survival of his voters. He seems to have chosen door 2.
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Old 04-24-2020, 05:03 PM
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Isn't Coronavirus also killing more blacks and latinos than whites? Quick googling said in New York their deaths were double that of whites.
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Old 04-24-2020, 05:38 PM
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We are at 50,000 deaths atm, you'd need at least a couple zeroes at the end of that before any partisan lean in the death toll starts to make a difference.
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Old 04-24-2020, 05:40 PM
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I'm not sure really. A lot of the people who die of coronavirus are probably going to die of some other old age disease pretty soon anyway.

In the US we have about 3 million deaths a year, the vast majority occurring among people over the age of 60.
You strike me as a smart guy, so I'm very confused.

Do you really believe that the majority of the folks who have died of the coronavirus would have died anyway by November 2020 if the virus weren't in the picture?

Because that seems to be the point you're making. And I want to think I have misunderstood you.
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Old 04-24-2020, 05:46 PM
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I don't know about the death toll from CV making a difference, but if the flu and CV are bad enough in November to keep seniors from venturing outside, and the Republicans succeed in suppressing vote by mail, they may outsmart themselves.
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Old 04-24-2020, 06:13 PM
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Isn't Coronavirus also killing more blacks and latinos than whites? Quick googling said in New York their deaths were double that of whites.
They're more affected. But they're also a smaller slice of the pie.

10% of 30m = 3m
5% of 200m = 10m
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Old 04-24-2020, 06:21 PM
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Twenty percent of American COVID-19 deaths have occurred in black Americans

While black people are suffering disproportionately, plenty of white folks are dying too.
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Old 04-24-2020, 06:36 PM
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https://www.similarweb.com/website/p...o.com#overview
https://www.similarweb.com/website/thehill.com#overview
https://www.similarweb.com/website/foxnews.com#overview

One notes that dead folk don't browse the web.

I wouldn't call that conclusive, but April's numbers will be interesting.
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Old 04-24-2020, 06:43 PM
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You strike me as a smart guy, so I'm very confused.

Do you really believe that the majority of the folks who have died of the coronavirus would have died anyway by November 2020 if the virus weren't in the picture?

Because that seems to be the point you're making. And I want to think I have misunderstood you.
I can be pretty stupid sometimes so don't get your hopes up. Humility and admitting you can be wrong is a good thing.

In Italy I believe the median age of death was 80 for the virus. Those people may not have died within six months thats true, but they won't be around much longer. However yes for the purposes of this thread we're talking about november 2020 and you're right the people who died probably wouldn't have died in the next 6 months.

Having said that as was said, a sizable chunk of the deaths so far are in NJ and NY, reliable blue states.

If the virus explodes in Florida, then it may flip the state. Florida is full of elderly Trump supporters and it is pretty evenly split in presidential elections.

But the virus also seems to take off more in urban areas, which are democratic. And it kills more non-whites than whites. Even though it also kills more men than women.
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Last edited by Wesley Clark; 04-24-2020 at 06:44 PM.
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Old 04-24-2020, 07:22 PM
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My wag is that survivors are more likely to blame Trump for the deaths than China. They will overwhelmingly vote out trump, and their numbers greater than the elderly maga voters that actually die from covid.
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Old 04-24-2020, 07:36 PM
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My wag is that survivors are more likely to blame Trump for the deaths than China.
Biden doesn't have to air any political ads, really. The taskforce debriefings are more effective than any political ad at showing the average voter that Trump is dangerously incompetent.

Trump has no one but himself to blame for this. All he had to do is let Pence be the face of the US coronavirus response and thus be the fall-guy for its mishaps and failures. But Trump's ego wouldn't let him take a backseat.
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Old 04-24-2020, 08:17 PM
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Trump's popularity, as per 538, is 43.4%. Little different than it has been his whole term of office.

I am of the belief that if Trump were to strip naked, scream "death to America" in Arabic, and stab Pence to death on national tv, his popularity level would not budge one inch.
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:13 PM
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Trump's popularity, as per 538, is 43.4%. Little different than it has been his whole term of office.

I am of the belief that if Trump were to strip naked, scream "death to America" in Arabic, and stab Pence to death on national tv, his popularity level would not budge one inch.
And in order to get the rest of the vote necessary to win the Electoral College vote, I'm certain that Trump will find a way (or several ways) to undermine the election. He knows that even if he does something illegal, he'll be in office before anything can be done about it, and by then no one will indict him because he'll be president, and Bill Barr will cover his ass.
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Old 04-24-2020, 11:31 PM
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It's really quite surreal. The President of the United States suggested yesterday in a press conference that people could inject bleach to cure themselves of an infection. But we have this thread based on the presumption that the only way his supporters will not vote for him again in November is if they are dead.
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Old 04-25-2020, 12:18 AM
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Twenty percent of American COVID-19 deaths have occurred in black Americans

While black people are suffering disproportionately, plenty of white folks are dying too.
So, 80% of the COVID-19 deaths are of white americans.
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Old 04-25-2020, 12:22 AM
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It's really quite surreal. The President of the United States suggested yesterday in a press conference that people could inject bleach to cure themselves of an infection. But we have this thread based on the presumption that the only way his supporters will not vote for him again in November is if they are dead.
If we're not watchful, some of those dead Chump supporters may be voting for him anyway.
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Old 04-25-2020, 12:32 AM
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So, 80% of the COVID-19 deaths are of white americans.

Actually, no. 50%.

You should look at the link, it's very informative.

One thing it seems to be saying is that the virus in America is concentrated more in non-white areas, but that within those areas black and white people are dying a little more often than they proportionately 'should', hispanic people somewhat less and asian people quite a lot less.

I suppose that a lot of this is down to rural/urban demographic differences
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Old 04-25-2020, 12:47 AM
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Actually, no. 50%.

You should look at the link, it's very informative.

One thing it seems to be saying is that the virus in America is concentrated more in non-white areas, but that within those areas black and white people are dying a little more often than they proportionately 'should', hispanic people somewhat less and asian people quite a lot less.

I suppose that a lot of this is down to rural/urban demographic differences
Its also due to the fact that white people are more likely to have jobs that allow them to work at home.

In NY state, around 20% of backs and latinos have been infected vs ~10% of whites and asians.
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Old 04-25-2020, 02:09 AM
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Trump's popularity, as per 538, is 43.4%. Little different than it has been his whole term of office.

If you look closely at that graph though, he was actually significantly less popular for nearly all of 2017 than he ever consistently has been since, which I have always found very curious. I would say if anything, he has gotten a lot worse since 2017, but I guess people got more used to him or something? The whole "defining deviance down" idea? I dunno, it's strange.
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Old 04-25-2020, 05:27 AM
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Remember the old CT? Trimp was buddies with the Clintons and a registered Dem for most of his years. The CT holds that he ran in 2016 to destroy the GOP by leading them to Hell. Then he unexpectedly and undesirably (on his part) won. Now he's been handed a golden opportunity to kill-off the GOP base. What a sly devil! President Biden should pardon him, award a Presidential Medal Of Opportunism, and exile him to Mar-a-Lago (with tight security).
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Old 04-25-2020, 05:43 AM
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IIRC what I heard on NPR recently, black people (can't remember if Latinos were included) were more likely to die if they were infected. The speculation was that they waited longer to seek palliative care, and pushed themselves to keep working longer, even when they were already ill, instead of resting. They were also less likely to be able to eat well and get lots of fluids when they were ill.

So while, yes, more African Americans are becoming ill; in addition, a higher percentage of those ill will die.
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Old 04-25-2020, 05:43 AM
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Twenty percent of American COVID-19 deaths have occurred in black Americans

While black people are suffering disproportionately, plenty of white folks are dying too.
Yeah, while it's important to know that black people are disproportionately affected too many white people are taking that to mean it's not their problem so they don't have to worry about it.
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Old 04-25-2020, 05:48 AM
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But the virus also seems to take off more in urban areas, which are democratic. And it kills more non-whites than whites. Even though it also kills more men than women.
No, in raw numbers more whites are killed by this virus in the US than minorities because white people are a higher percentage of the population.

While a higher proportion of black/brown/other minorities are getting severe disease and dying, a smaller percentage of white people dying is still a crap-ton of dead white people.

Right now it's hitting urban areas hard, because dense populations are a feeding frenzy for epidemic diseases. But if rural Americans keep insisting on flaunting preventive measures, going to demonstrations inside of cities, having Sunday services as normal jammed into churches and shaking hands and trading hugs, it's going to explode in rural areas. And they'll find out the hard way that being white and rural and a loyal Trump follower doesn't protect you if you insist on leaving yourself exposed because you foolishly think it's someone else's problem.
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Old 04-25-2020, 06:42 AM
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Trump's popularity, as per 538, is 43.4%. Little different than it has been his whole term of office.
And that is really bad for him in a crisis when governments tend to get a bump. Even states that refused to lock down got upticks in support.

Trump did get a bump early on, but it's completely evaporated.
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Old 04-25-2020, 12:42 PM
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Biden doesn't have to air any political ads, really. The taskforce debriefings are more effective than any political ad at showing the average voter that Trump is dangerously incompetent.

Trump has no one but himself to blame for this. All he had to do is let Pence be the face of the US coronavirus response and thus be the fall-guy for its mishaps and failures. But Trump's ego wouldn't let him take a backseat.
A poster at another board compared the current situation to the McCarthy hearings. The public started out in support of the commie hunt only to turn on him once McCarthy's loathsomeness was revealed day by day.
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Old 04-25-2020, 01:45 PM
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A poster at another board compared the current situation to the McCarthy hearings. The public started out in support of the commie hunt only to turn on him once McCarthy's loathsomeness was revealed day by day.
Inlaws were recently pretty well-off and even now aren't poor but they've already lost millions in investments even pre-COVID and they know Trimp the Chimp wants them dead. Yet they still support him. Trimp's loathsomeness hasn't extended far enough. Suckers gonna suck.
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Old 04-25-2020, 03:33 PM
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A poster at another board compared the current situation to the McCarthy hearings. The public started out in support of the commie hunt only to turn on him once McCarthy's loathsomeness was revealed day by day.
Problem is, to his base Chump's loathsomeness is a feature, not a bug.
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Old 04-25-2020, 04:12 PM
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Problem is, to his base Chump's loathsomeness is a feature, not a bug.
Nailed it in one.

Only thing is to register and turn out the opposition vote in November.
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Old 04-25-2020, 06:21 PM
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We are at 50,000 deaths atm, you'd need at least a couple zeroes at the end of that before any partisan lean in the death toll starts to make a difference.
No, I don't think the actual number who will have died will make a crucial difference but 23K made the difference in Wisconsin, 11K made the difference in Michigan ... and we can all remember an election when 537 votes in Florida made the difference. Recent elections have sometimes come down to a relatively few votes in key places.

But if there is an election impact it will be most that a crisis is a chance for a president to shine, winning over those who are winnable with demonstrated leadership. People want to rally together. He continues to show he's not the president to do that.

In terms of impacting his base, well that depends on how this progresses and the timing of it. My fear for the real world is that the rural America will be hit hard but in a very lagging fashion, maybe as the Fall hits, possibly synchronized with influenza starting up.

That's bad for people dying. And rural voters then may realize that failed leadership is what is killing them as much as the germ is.
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Old 04-25-2020, 07:43 PM
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What won't tip the scales, IMHO, is the actual number of people who won't cast ballots because they're dead due to the coronavirus.

What's more likely to have an impact is the effect of their deaths, and Trump's failure to do anything meaningful to try to prevent them, on their family and friends. Older voters in particular will have lost friends (if not spouses or siblings) to the coronavirus, they will have felt personally threatened by this epidemic, and they will remember the way so many conservatives were ready to throw them under the bus six feet under, just to get the economy going again.

That's going to be a real problem for Trump in states like FL and AZ where people retire to, and in the Midwestern states that have gradually been trending red, in part because of an aging electorate in those states.
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Old 04-25-2020, 08:32 PM
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I think those of you who are underestimating the possibility of dead voters directly impacting Trump’s electability don’t realize most of the red states who have prematurely loosened social restrictions or had none to begin with still haven’t seen the peak of the pandemic. New York is just getting over its hump, meanwhile there will be several more New Yorks elsewhere, especially in the swing states Trump relied on to win the election. A victory won by razor thin margins in most cases, mind you.

And like RTFirefly said, the survivors and families of those who died from COVID-19 won’t forget which party let them down in their time need. A few die-hard sycophants will still support Trump and blame the Democrats, but for the rest of them seeing their president’s abysmal response to a pandemic that has killed them, maimed them, and ruined their economic prospects will be the wake-up call they urgently needed to finally turn their backs on Trump and the GOP. I honestly believe the everlasting legacy of COVID-19 is the death of the Republican Party for at least a generation. This is a party that will have to be rebuilt from the ground up.
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Old 04-25-2020, 10:35 PM
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What's more likely to have an impact is the effect of their deaths, and Trump's failure to do anything meaningful to try to prevent them, on their family and friends. Older voters in particular will have lost friends (if not spouses or siblings) to the coronavirus, they will have felt personally threatened by this epidemic, and they will remember the way so many conservatives were ready to throw them under the bus six feet under, just to get the economy going again.
I've seen this view mentioned by someone in another thread.

I don't see it. Trump's popularity is in similar territory as the belief in God. If things are good, then it's thanks to God. If things are bad, fortunately, God was there to guide us through it and it would have been worse without him.

Likewise for Trump. The expectation of some sort of rational approach to the matter, when looking at a steady 40% approval rating through "The British attacked our airports during the Revolutionary War", "It's not an election finance crime, because I have him on permanent retainer to handle all my sexual assault payoffs", and "Is it reasonable to inject Draino to cure Coronavirus?", seems overly optimistic.
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Old 04-25-2020, 10:57 PM
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The GOP holding onto 40 percent support definitely does not leave them "destroyed", especially with gerrymandering and other structural advantages, but it doesn't leave them in a terribly strong position either--especially when they have burned their bridges with the other 60%.


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But if rural Americans keep insisting on flaunting preventive measures, going to demonstrations inside of cities, having Sunday services as normal jammed into churches and shaking hands and trading hugs, it's going to explode in rural areas.

Pretty sure I agree with you, but I have got to think you mean "flouting" rather than "flaunting".


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What won't tip the scales, IMHO, is the actual number of people who won't cast ballots because they're dead due to the coronavirus.

What's more likely to have an impact is the effect of their deaths, and Trump's failure to do anything meaningful to try to prevent them, on their family and friends. Older voters in particular will have lost friends (if not spouses or siblings) to the coronavirus, they will have felt personally threatened by this epidemic, and they will remember the way so many conservatives were ready to throw them under the bus six feet under, just to get the economy going again.

That's going to be a real problem for Trump in states like FL and AZ where people retire to, and in the Midwestern states that have gradually been trending red, in part because of an aging electorate in those states.

Yes, there was a polling expert on PBS's Washington Week yesterday who said that Trump has lost support specifically among older voters over the past two weeks. And that of course is before any effect of his disinfectant/UV light insanity on Thursday.
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Old 04-26-2020, 12:02 AM
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The impact of Trump voters dying is overstated. Even if hundreds of thousands of Trumpers died, all it takes is for a mere increase of 1% in voter turnout among Trump's base (compared to 2016) to complete negate the effect of those deaths.

Remember, Trump got 63 million votes four years ago. Even if we assume that Covid-19 kills off 63 Trump voters out of every hundred victims that it kills (which is a highly doubtful percentage,) it would take a whopping 1 million American coronavirus deaths before November to reduce Trump's vote performance by just one percent.

Last edited by Velocity; 04-26-2020 at 12:04 AM.
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Old 04-26-2020, 12:51 AM
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rural voters then may realize that failed leadership is killing them
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the survivors and families of those who died from COVID-19 won’t forget whichparty let them down in their time need.
I don't think it works that way. People are dying , and afraid of dying, because of germs that came from China. They won't blame the president for Chinese germs.

Sure, you can point out that some countries did better than us and had fewer deaths because of political leadership. But that requires rational thought. Elections are not won by rational thought. (see: Brexit)

Quote:
Trump's popularity is in similar territory as the belief in God. If things are good, then it's thanks to God. If things are bad, fortunately, God was there to guide us through it and it would have been worse without him.
This is a much more accurate observation of human behavior than the two quotes above.
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Old 04-26-2020, 03:02 AM
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The impact of Trump voters dying is overstated. Even if hundreds of thousands of Trumpers died, all it takes is for a mere increase of 1% in voter turnout among Trump's base (compared to 2016) to complete negate the effect of those deaths.

Remember, Trump got 63 million votes four years ago. Even if we assume that Covid-19 kills off 63 Trump voters out of every hundred victims that it kills (which is a highly doubtful percentage,) it would take a whopping 1 million American coronavirus deaths before November to reduce Trump's vote performance by just one percent.
Winning isn't based on gross quantities. Hillary could have gotten 15m more votes and still lost, if all 15m were in California.

Swing states, swing districts, people who actually vote; everything else is immaterial. A few people one direction or another can make a large difference, sometimes.
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Old 04-26-2020, 08:09 AM
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I've seen this view mentioned by someone in another thread.

I don't see it. Trump's popularity is in similar territory as the belief in God. If things are good, then it's thanks to God. If things are bad, fortunately, God was there to guide us through it and it would have been worse without him.
The thing is, we don't need the hardcore 43%. (Maybe some of them won't turn out to be so hardcore in the face of this year's events, but we don't need to count on them.)

We just need everyone else - particularly the voters who might have leaned towards voting Trump if there had been no coronavirus and the economy had stayed healthy. I think we win that group big time, but especially so among the Medicare age range.
  #42  
Old 04-26-2020, 10:02 PM
RioRico is offline
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MrsRico found a funny: "Fortunately for the president's supporters, bleach and disinfectant bottles have childproof caps."
  #43  
Old 04-27-2020, 01:29 AM
guizot is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
MrsRico found a funny: "Fortunately for the president's supporters, bleach and disinfectant bottles have childproof caps."
Fortunately for the president, too.
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