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Old 04-27-2020, 04:18 PM
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So, who will be the Democratic nominee?


I ask because I heard a long-time Biden supporter today state that her candidate is in "real trouble" due to the combination of a continuous stream of gaffes and a sexual assault allegation that needs to die but doesn't seem ready to.

A week ago she was staunch, dismissing these issues as minor and partisan.

Is #DropOutBiden realistically possible? What would be the process of finding his replacement, and who might it be?
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Old 04-27-2020, 04:28 PM
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He's going up against Trump who dwarfs him in gaffes and sexy assault allegations. He'll be fine.
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Old 04-27-2020, 05:00 PM
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Is #DropOutBiden realistically possible?
No, it isn't.

This is a desperation play either by Sanders supporters who are trying to sneak in and win the nomination or by Trump supporters who feel that they can't beat Biden and want a weaker opponent.
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Old 04-27-2020, 05:26 PM
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No, it isn't.

This is a desperation play either by Sanders supporters who are trying to sneak in and win the nomination or by Trump supporters who feel that they can't beat Biden and want a weaker opponent.
There are one or two other outside parties who also have an interest in sewing chaos. No reason it can't be all of the above.
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Old 04-27-2020, 05:30 PM
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New York State is cancelling its Democratic presidential primary because it is completely unnecessary, given that Biden has the nomination sewed up. They aren't wrong.

#DropOutBiden? There is no there there.
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Old 04-27-2020, 05:36 PM
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If Biden did something that he shouldn't have, he should step down.

Whether he will or not, no idea.

No idea what the Democratic party would do, if he did step down.

If he didn't do anything, it's probably just as well that the accusation is getting the press that it is now. By voting time, no one will remember it.
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Old 04-27-2020, 05:50 PM
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If he didn't do anything, it's probably just as well that the accusation is getting the press that it is now. By voting time, no one will remember it.
No, lots of people will remember it. Hannity and Ingraham and Carlson will yap about it incessantly.

The staggering hypocrisy involved will not bother them in the least.

Someone in Trump's camp will do his or her best to make sure Trump keeps his mouth shut about it (and doesn't tweet about it). The effort may or may not be successful.

Again, the sheer hypocrisy will not bother Trump's base at all.
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Old 04-27-2020, 05:56 PM
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If Biden quits logically it would go to Sanders but I think some would prefer Warren.
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:06 PM
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Trump who dwarfs him in gaffes and sexy assault allegations.
There is nothing sexy about Trump, not even his allegations. :P

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Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
No, it isn't.

This is a desperation play either by Sanders supporters who are trying to sneak in and win the nomination or by Trump supporters who feel that they can't beat Biden and want a weaker opponent.
But OP is talking about a “longtime Biden supporter.”
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:15 PM
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Biden will be the nominee. I think the biggest “real trouble” I can think of regarding Biden is that he’s squarely in the most “at risk” demographic for dying of COVID19 complications. As are Trump and Sanders. There’s a little bit of poetry in that regarding America’s decision making capabilities ...
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:27 PM
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The nominee will be Biden. Hillary will not be indicted.... ooops sorry wrong year, no Biden won’t be forced out from dementia or whatever nonsense is spewed from the Intercept.

Your long term Biden supporter sounds like a Bernie supporter. So many of the ‘very concerned’ people on Twitter today have decided that this the end for Biden. They all have red roses on their Twitter handles and if you scroll their timeline, you’ll see stuff about how the nominee isn’t decided yet and Bernie can still come back.
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Old 04-27-2020, 06:30 PM
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If Biden quits logically it would go to Sanders but I think some would prefer Warren.
Never. Warren is a pathetic joke who came in 3rd in her own state. The 70-75% of us that rejected Bernie despise him and we know exactly what his surrogates are doing.
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Old 04-28-2020, 01:28 AM
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If Biden quits logically it would go to Sanders but I think some would prefer Warren.
My extended family asks me to brave the virus, go out, and buy a case of soda pop. They vote
Coca Cola 52%
Green Fanta 17%
Pepsi Cola 15%
Est Cola 9%
RC Cola 7%
Ooops! The 7-Eleven is out of Coca Cola. Which alternative soda pop should I choose?
  #14  
Old 04-28-2020, 04:39 AM
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My extended family asks me to brave the virus, go out, and buy a case of soda pop. They vote
Coca Cola 52%
Green Fanta 17%
Pepsi Cola 15%
Est Cola 9%
RC Cola 7%
Ooops! The 7-Eleven is out of Coca Cola. Which alternative soda pop should I choose?
Ummm... not Green Fanta because no one (outside Thailand) has ever heard of it or tasted it?
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Old 04-28-2020, 09:57 AM
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Never. Warren is a pathetic joke who came in 3rd in her own state. The 70-75% of us that rejected Bernie despise him and we know exactly what his surrogates are doing.
People either voted for Sanders or they hate him? Strange logic.
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Old 04-28-2020, 10:11 AM
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My extended family asks me to brave the virus, go out, and buy a case of soda pop. They vote
Coca Cola 52%
Green Fanta 17%
Pepsi Cola 15%
Est Cola 9%
RC Cola 7%
Ooops! The 7-Eleven is out of Coca Cola. Which alternative soda pop should I choose?
Ginger ale
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Old 04-28-2020, 10:38 AM
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Is this a trick question, like "Who's buried in Grant's Tomb?".
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:01 AM
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People either voted for Sanders or they hate him? Strange logic.
Why? Isn't that true for Trump?
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Old 04-28-2020, 12:00 PM
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Trump is not a traditional president or candidate. To me the hatred of Trump is beyond what you normally see from the other party.
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Old 04-28-2020, 08:53 PM
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No, lots of people will remember it. Hannity and Ingraham and Carlson will yap about it incessantly.

The staggering hypocrisy involved will not bother them in the least.
Staggering hypocrisy cuts both ways on this one. If you were pissed about Kavanaugh, you can’t give Biden a pass without being a hypocrite.

I’ll vote for him anyway. What choice do I have? I’ll tell myself that at least women will be better off than they would be with Trump in the White House. I’m sure it’ll be fine.

But I’m not going to pretend that I’m OK with the allegations, or the way the media have hurriedly brushed them aside. I never liked Biden, and personally I’m pissed that these allegations weren’t addressed earlier in the primaries before everybody pussed out and handed him the nomination.
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Old 04-28-2020, 11:17 PM
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I never liked Biden, and personally I’m pissed that these allegations weren’t addressed earlier in the primaries before everybody pussed out and handed him the nomination.
Maybe you should be pissed that the accuser didn't blast the accusations earlier. Interesting time she waited for.
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Old 04-29-2020, 01:36 AM
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Maybe you should be pissed that the accuser didn't blast the accusations earlier. Interesting time she waited for.
There are multiple people who remember her telling them about the assault at the time it happened. It’s not a slam dunk but I guess I’d say I’m not ready to call her a liar.

As for timing, who knows? Maybe someone else is behind it. Maybe she’s resented him for so long that it’s pure vindictiveness.
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Old 05-04-2020, 07:55 AM
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One NY Times columnist believes Biden may not be the right candidate: Democrats, It’s Time to Consider a Plan B

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... to maximize their chances in November, Democrats need to begin formulating an alternative strategy for 2020 — one that does not include Mr. Biden.

Last edited by Xema; 05-04-2020 at 07:55 AM.
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Old 05-04-2020, 08:01 AM
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One NY Times columnist believes Biden may not be the right candidate: Democrats, It’s Time to Consider a Plan B
Why don't you guys just get a head start on Sanders 2024 campaign?

Here's a tip; next time, you should actually show up and vote for him.
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Old 05-04-2020, 08:13 PM
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Here's a truly bizarre possibility: Clinton / Obama. (And the Obama suggested here is not Michelle.)

IMO, the idea of another Hillary campaign is just catastrophically bad. But what do I know?
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Old 05-04-2020, 08:40 PM
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Here's a truly bizarre possibility: Clinton / Obama. (And the Obama suggested here is not Michelle.)

IMO, the idea of another Hillary campaign is just catastrophically bad. But what do I know?
It's becoming a thing on right-wing media to argue against Biden. They're taking their cues from Trump who saw correctly last year that Biden would be his least favorite opponent.

Some of us are old enough to remember when IBM ruled the computer world and retained their dominance by FUD: fear, uncertainty, and doubt. (As in, you want to buy some other make of computer? Don't you realize that IBM will introduce a better computer tomorrow and make you look like an idiot?) The right is doing the equivalent. Push forward any nonsense that will cause possible Biden voters to think they're making the wrong choice. The writer of that article - a longtime Republican operative - knows that Clinton is not running and that Obama can't be VP. (Here's my case. If it were legal to make that maneuver he would already have done so - and so would Bush, Clinton, and Reagan.) He just wants to dirty Biden.

Beware of this garbage. If you see it, cast the writer into outer oblivion and think strongly about reading the site lest you step in more and even smellier garbage.
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Old 05-04-2020, 11:51 PM
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One NY Times columnist believes Biden may not be the right candidate: Democrats, It’s Time to Consider a Plan B
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Here's a truly bizarre possibility: Clinton / Obama. (And the Obama suggested here is not Michelle.)

IMO, the idea of another Hillary campaign is just catastrophically bad. But what do I know?
Kudos for reading a range of opinions but a Bernie-seeking Socialist and a former Reagan/Bush speechwriter who argued that Trump is America's smartest president probably aren't the places to find the pulse of Democratic wisdom. They have as much right to an opinion as anyone but I don't see any reason to think their opinion reflects conventional thinking in the Democratic party.
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Old 05-04-2020, 11:54 PM
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I ask because I heard a long-time Biden supporter today state that her candidate is in "real trouble" due to the combination of a continuous stream of gaffes and a sexual assault allegation that needs to die but doesn't seem ready to.

A week ago she was staunch, dismissing these issues as minor and partisan.

Is #DropOutBiden realistically possible? What would be the process of finding his replacement, and who might it be?
You're funny.
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Old 05-04-2020, 11:56 PM
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Here's a truly bizarre possibility: Clinton / Obama. (And the Obama suggested here is not Michelle.)

IMO, the idea of another Hillary campaign is just catastrophically bad. But what do I know?
That's an impossibility, not a possibility. Obama is not eligible to be VP. The Veep must be able to take over as President, which disqualifies Obama. I believe this is taught in seventh-grade civics class.
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Old 05-05-2020, 12:10 AM
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Is this a trick question, like "Who's buried in Grant's Tomb?".
Is it Jimmy Hoffa?

Let's not pretend that the people "just asking" these questions aren't just wanting a back door sneak for Bernie Sanders, as if Sanders is actually a viable alternative for many Democratic voters, and as if elected he would actually be able to follow through on the vague talking points that comprise his agenda. Joe Biden may not be a very inspiring candidate but he is at least experienced enough to select good advisors, and pliable enough to listen to good sense instead of just shouting at the top of his lungs at everybody about how things are going to be now that he is in charge even if he did win in a general election instead of turn enough voters off to just turn away from the polls.

Stranger
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Old 05-05-2020, 01:06 AM
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Barring heart attack, stroke, full onset dementia or other medical catastrophe, Biden will be the Democratic nominee.

#DropOutBiden strikes me as likely a Russian trolling campaign.
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Old 05-05-2020, 03:11 AM
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Can there be Faithless Electors in a primary?
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Old 05-05-2020, 06:31 AM
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Obama is not eligible to be VP. The Veep must be able to take over as President, which disqualifies Obama.
As noted in the cited article, the language in the Constitution is “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.”

If a former President were VP, he'd not be ineligible to assume the office of President because of not having to be elected. Or so the argument goes.
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:37 AM
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Quoth Driver8:

Biden will be the nominee. I think the biggest “real trouble” I can think of regarding Biden is that he’s squarely in the most “at risk” demographic for dying of COVID19 complications. As are Trump and Sanders. There’s a little bit of poetry in that regarding America’s decision making capabilities ...
All three of them were already in the most at-risk demographic for dying, even before COVID-19. This new disease doesn't actually change the calculation all that much. Almost none at all, if you're looking at the probability of dying at any point during the next term, rather than this year specifically.

But back to the question, there are three possible routes. First, we can continue with Biden as the candidate. The allegations (true or not) probably do hurt him in November. It remains to be seen whether they hurt him enough for Trump to win. Yes, Trump is definitely, unambiguously worse than Biden on this score, but it still hurts, because it means that Biden can't attack Trump for his behavior.

Second, Biden can name who he's choosing as his running mate, and then step down, probably after the convention, and ask his supporters to support his chosen running mate. Some voters wil be angered that he gave in to pressure, and some just plain won't like his running mate as much as him. Of course, some might like his running mate better, and any rational person supporting him should have faith in his ability to pick a successor, given his age and the consequent fairly high probability of dying in office. The net effect will probably be negative, but might (or might not) be less negative than him staying in the race.

The third possibility is for the Democratic delegates at the convention to back off on their pledges, and name someone else as the nominee, over Biden's objections. This path would be an absolute unmitigated disaster, no matter who they chose. This is the scenario that Putin is hoping for (whether he had any hand in engineering this situation or not, he's certainly watching with interest). Chaos of that sort never turns out well.

And a Clinton-Obama ticket is just laughably absurd, no matter how you slice it. Any journalist even floating that notion should be fired from their publication.
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Old 05-05-2020, 08:55 AM
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Yes, Trump is definitely, unambiguously worse than Biden on this score, but it still hurts, because it means that Biden can't attack Trump for his behavior.
I doubt this was going to be a big part of the Biden playbook anyway. Everyone knows Trump lies, cheats on his wife, treats women like shit and likely committed assault in at least one instance. People willing to vote for Trump are already okay with his past, either because they don't care or because politics. This election will be a referendum on Trump's last term and if people want another four years of that, not what he did prior.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:22 AM
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As noted in the cited article, the language in the Constitution is “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.”

If a former President were VP, he'd not be ineligible to assume the office of President because of not having to be elected. Or so the argument goes.
The «argument», even dignifying it with that terms, ignores the closing words of the Twelfth Amendment:

Quote:
But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that if Vice-President of the United States.
The Twenty-Second Amendment , s. 1, provides that:

Quote:
No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice...
Obama has been elected to the office of the President twice. He is constitutionally ineligible for that office and therefore ineligible for the office of the Vice-President.
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Old 05-05-2020, 09:44 AM
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Obama has been elected to the office of the President twice. He is constitutionally ineligible for that office and therefore ineligible for the office of the Vice-President.
Put aside the Vice-Presidency for a moment; can he become Secretary of State? Can he become Attorney General? If so, what happens if the President and VP and so on all croak in — if you will — rapid succession, with him as the first non-vacancy?
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Old 05-05-2020, 10:01 AM
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All three of them were already in the most at-risk demographic for dying, even before COVID-19. This new disease doesn't actually change the calculation all that much. Almost none at all, if you're looking at the probability of dying at any point during the next term, rather than this year specifically.

But back to the question, there are three possible routes. First, we can continue with Biden as the candidate. The allegations (true or not) probably do hurt him in November. It remains to be seen whether they hurt him enough for Trump to win. Yes, Trump is definitely, unambiguously worse than Biden on this score, but it still hurts, because it means that Biden can't attack Trump for his behavior.

Second, Biden can name who he's choosing as his running mate, and then step down, probably after the convention, and ask his supporters to support his chosen running mate. Some voters wil be angered that he gave in to pressure, and some just plain won't like his running mate as much as him. Of course, some might like his running mate better, and any rational person supporting him should have faith in his ability to pick a successor, given his age and the consequent fairly high probability of dying in office. The net effect will probably be negative, but might (or might not) be less negative than him staying in the race.

The third possibility is for the Democratic delegates at the convention to back off on their pledges, and name someone else as the nominee, over Biden's objections. This path would be an absolute unmitigated disaster, no matter who they chose. This is the scenario that Putin is hoping for (whether he had any hand in engineering this situation or not, he's certainly watching with interest). Chaos of that sort never turns out well.

And a Clinton-Obama ticket is just laughably absurd, no matter how you slice it. Any journalist even floating that notion should be fired from their publication.
It sucks not being able to canvass and talk to voters. Obviously in this forum or social media you’re going to get mostly people with strong views. When I’ve done text banking, the only time it’s come up is from obvious Bernie supporters (the text lists are based on likely Democratic voters in primary states that haven’t voted)

I’m going to guess that the allegations aren’t really an issue with the average Democratic voter. Reade’s constantly changing story and most of the push coming from the sketchy side of the internet and Bernie die hards has made most of the MSM shy away from the story and certainly not the non stop hammering of ‘But her emails’ that Hillary got. Plus the virus is soaking up all the oxygen in the room as well as the emerging open up the economy talk.

But, I’d love to actually talk to voters in person to try to see if I hear any hesitation. When canvassing for Hillary, there was always a I still don’t trust her, she’s dishonest vibe I got from many voters who did say they were voting for her.

I don’t think I’ll find the same thing for Biden. I think we may have reached a point of ‘another famous male, there’s always some woman from the past’ fatigue. And, as of today, there’s a lot less with the Biden case than the Kavanaugh case. I do wonder if some Democrats wish they’d toned down the rhetoric with Kavanaugh.

My guess is that the Reade thing falls into the background. We’re going to be in one hell of a recession come this fall. The 2008 election occurred before most of the damage, there was the summer of $4 gas prices and then the crazy September of bank failures and stock prices going insane, but the fallout really occurred after the election. And, of course, the unemployment pattern is different with mass layoffs and furloughs now, not the drip drip drip of 2009/2010. Unemployment peaked at 10% in October of 2010 just in time for the midterms. The Trump/Biden contest will be fought with a likely much higher unemployment rate.
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Old 05-05-2020, 10:02 AM
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Put aside the Vice-Presidency for a moment; can he become Secretary of State? Can he become Attorney General? If so, what happens if the President and VP and so on all croak in — if you will — rapid succession, with him as the first non-vacancy?
He’d get skipped over, just like Henry Kissinger would have been.
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Old 05-05-2020, 10:03 AM
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Put aside the Vice-Presidency for a moment; can he become Secretary of State? Can he become Attorney General? If so, what happens if the President and VP and so on all croak in — if you will — rapid succession, with him as the first non-vacancy?
I don't think the Cabinet has that same eligibility requirements specified. Madeleine Albright served as Secretary of State despite not being a natural born citizen. I think it was presumed that she would just be skipped over in the line of succession.
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Old 05-05-2020, 10:04 AM
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A big problem with the Biden accusation is that it normalizes Trump.

The Democrats should have found a younger, moderate, charismatic straight arrow. Then the contrast would have been stark: An old, blustering, obnoxious man against a young moderate with a reputation for scruples.

Instead, it's now going to be a contest between two old white men with a history of being handsy with women and both likely guilty of being pigs with women at the very least.

Trump's piggishness appears to have already been baked into his support numbers. Even his supporters know what he is. But Biden's accusations have yet to be felt by average voters. And there are many, many pictures out there of Biden sniffing women, grabbing them, sucking their fingers, etc. In the hands of a skilled campaign, that's a treasure trove of material just made for memes and viral videos. A steady stream of such material will help set the narrative, and this accusation is the hook.

And when it comes to the respective 'bases', Republicans don't care if their candidate is old and out of touch. Democrats would much rather have a younger, more diverse candidate. The Dems are going to have to work harder to get out the vote for Biden. These allegations make that more difficult.
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Old 05-05-2020, 10:09 AM
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He’d get skipped over, just like Henry Kissinger would have been.
I thought the conventional legal wisdom was that a two-term president could wind up in office again through an event such as being in he chain of succession, but if that person wound up as President again, they would be ineligible to run for re-election and would have to step down at the end of the term.

That's what a plain reading of the two-elected term limit seems to indicate.
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Old 05-05-2020, 10:12 AM
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I thought the conventional legal wisdom was that a two-term president could wind up in office again through an event such as being in he chain of succession, but if that person wound up as President again, they would be ineligible to run for re-election and would have to step down at the end of the term.

That's what a plain reading of the two-elected term limit seems to indicate.
No. A two term President, or anyone else ineligible to run for POTUS, can’t be a VP. They could be in the Cabinet but they’d be skipped in the succession just as if they weren’t a natural born citizen.
  #44  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:32 AM
Bijou Drains is offline
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In 1980 there was talk Reagan thought about having Ford as VP. That would have been OK
  #45  
Old 05-05-2020, 10:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
In 1980 there was talk Reagan thought about having Ford as VP. That would have been OK
Biden/Carter, that’s the ticket!

Realistically, in this day and age, we aren’t going to see any former president in a cabinet or congress. The days of John Quincy Adams being elected to the House after serving as president are over.

The only paths might be the Supreme Court, very unlikely, but I could see it happening one day in the future or a former president running for a local office, again very unlikely.
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  #46  
Old 05-05-2020, 01:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Sam Stone View Post
A big problem with the Biden accusation is that it normalizes Trump.

The Democrats should have found a younger, moderate, charismatic straight arrow. Then the contrast would have been stark: An old, blustering, obnoxious man against a young moderate with a reputation for scruples.

Instead, it's now going to be a contest between two old white men with a history of being handsy with women and both likely guilty of being pigs with women at the very least.

Trump's piggishness appears to have already been baked into his support numbers. Even his supporters know what he is. But Biden's accusations have yet to be felt by average voters. And there are many, many pictures out there of Biden sniffing women, grabbing them, sucking their fingers, etc. In the hands of a skilled campaign, that's a treasure trove of material just made for memes and viral videos. A steady stream of such material will help set the narrative, and this accusation is the hook.

And when it comes to the respective 'bases', Republicans don't care if their candidate is old and out of touch. Democrats would much rather have a younger, more diverse candidate. The Dems are going to have to work harder to get out the vote for Biden. These allegations make that more difficult.
I’m a bit less worried. Biden led in the polls during primary season despite having almost no support among party activists. Even on the older skewing SDMB, there was little mention of him.

Most of the handsy stuff has been from the left, photoshopped or looped in many cases. I suspect that’ll let up soon, the Reade stuff seems to have blown over and Bernie has been quiet, not giving anyone false hope.

Could the Republicans go down the creepy uncle road? Yes, of course. But again, it brings up Trump’s flaws, easy to ignore when you can just taste that Supreme Court seat. And, you’re going to be dealing with a lot of exhausted voters. It’s not funny having the bull loose in the china shop any longer. It felt good for Trumpers to finally hear CNN called the fake news media in 2016, it’s lost its novelty after hearing it a million times.

Plus, a lot of Democrats are thinking we’re voting for a one term president. I wonder what percentage wish that both Biden and Bernie would have sat this out. But, they didn’t and here we are. Let’s get rid of Trump and then work on finally passing the torch to a younger generation.
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  #47  
Old 05-05-2020, 03:09 PM
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After he was president for 1 term Taft was chief justice of the supreme court for 9 years until he died.
  #48  
Old 05-05-2020, 03:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hajario View Post
They could be in the Cabinet but they’d be skipped in the succession just as if they weren’t a natural born citizen.
I get why we skip a guy in the line of succession if he’s not a natural-born citizen; it’s because only “a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.”

That doesn’t merely bar such folks from getting elected president; it talks, broadly, about being eligible to that office.

Now, I of course see where there’s also a bar on folks being “elected to the office of the President more than twice” — or, in some cases, even being “elected to the office of the President more than once” — but, again, that’s explicitly limited to being elected to the office; it’s not written the way the natural-born part was.
  #49  
Old 05-05-2020, 04:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Xema View Post
As noted in the cited article, the language in the Constitution is “no person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.”

If a former President were VP, he'd not be ineligible to assume the office of President because of not having to be elected. Or so the argument goes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Piper View Post
The «argument», even dignifying it with that terms, ignores the closing words of the Twelfth Amendment:



The Twenty-Second Amendment , s. 1, provides that:



Obama has been elected to the office of the President twice. He is constitutionally ineligible for that office and therefore ineligible for the office of the Vice-President.
Indeed. Those of us who actually passed seventh-grade civics know Obama will never be VP. There is not even any evidence that he would like to be.
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  #50  
Old 05-05-2020, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Siam Sam View Post
Indeed. Those of us who actually passed seventh-grade civics know Obama will never be VP.
I did just fine in civics, but I maybe missed the part about refuting a sneer.
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