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  #51  
Old 05-06-2020, 08:26 AM
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PPP is a Dem polling organization, so sadly can't be too happy about the Iowa poll. The rest look very hopeful and a Montana win would be unexpected. So cool. Daines (R) is the incumbent.
  #52  
Old 05-06-2020, 09:20 AM
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PPP is a Dem polling organization, so sadly can't be too happy about the Iowa poll. The rest look very hopeful and a Montana win would be unexpected. So cool. Daines (R) is the incumbent.
I wouldn't get too happy about any of the polls this far out and when polling data in each race is pretty sparse, but while PPP is a partisan organization their polling is pretty much on the level. 538 has them as a B rated pollster with a slight 0.3% Dem lean.

Of the four polls in my post, the PPP is the most reliable. Neither Civiqs nor Montana State Bozeman have the track record necessary to even be properly rated, and the Civiqs poll was paid for by Daily Kos.

538 pollster ratings
  #53  
Old 05-06-2020, 01:55 PM
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Man, Montana would be a gift I never would have dreamed of receiving a few months ago.
  #54  
Old 05-06-2020, 02:44 PM
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Agreed. You could kinda sorta put Kentucky, where Amy McGrath is raising all kinds of money to battle the Turtle, in that same boat.
I think she will lose. But there's a huge amount of pressure there, and the GOP will have to choose where to spend it's resources. IMHO, they will spend it on keeping control of the senate, not shoring up trump.

So even in races like kentucky, where the dem candidate will likely lose due to GOP voter fraud and suppression, keeping the pressure on is critical.

That's why I see texas as critical- Biden and trump are neck and neck in polls. The GOP will have to pour money there to keep it red- or pour $ to keep Moscow Mitch?

Incidentally, I think Amy Mcgrath would be a wonderful Senator. I even sent her a small donation.
  #55  
Old 05-06-2020, 07:19 PM
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I follow this blog that has been doing polling analysis/forecasts as hobbies on elections since 2004. He's a self-declared conservative but a numbers man and has a solid record at predicting elections.

https://www.electionprojection.com/

His current projections are:

President: Biden 278 - Trump 260
Senate: Republicans 51 (-2) - 47 Democrats (+2)
House: Democrats 240 (+6) - Republicans 195 (-5)
  #56  
Old 05-06-2020, 07:46 PM
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This blogger has also been going since 2004 and also has a solid record.

https://electoral-vote.com/

Although his electoral college forecast is way too optimistic for me as he assesses through 2020 polls which in some states there haven't been many. And in some states like Texas where the polls show a statistical tie, he marks it as a tie at this point. The other guy makes his calls as if the election were to be held today.
  #57  
Old 05-06-2020, 07:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Boycott View Post
This blogger has also been going since 2004 and also has a solid record.

https://electoral-vote.com/

Although his electoral college forecast is way too optimistic for me as he assesses through 2020 polls which in some states there haven't been many. And in some states like Texas where the polls show a statistical tie, he marks it as a tie at this point. The other guy makes his calls as if the election were to be held today.
This guy doesn't make much sense. Even though his map has CO as Likely GOP, he says this about the race:

Quote:
Colorado is turning blue and Cory Gardner is going to be one of the Democrats' top three targets (along with Martha McSally in Arizona and Susan Collins in Maine). The blue team has won every presidential, senatorial, and gubernatorial race since 2008, with the exception of Gardner's race in 2014. The Democrats got their dream candidate when former governor John Hickenlooper dropped out of the presidential race and threw his hat into the ring for the Senate race. Early polls give Hickenlooper a double-digit lead. Hickenlooper's main primary challenger is Andrew Romanoff, leader of Colorado's progressives and former speaker of the Colorado House. The pandemic is going to hurt Romanoff because as a former two-term governor, Hickenlooper is far better known than Romanoff. Once Romanoff is dispatched in June, Hickenlooper can focus on taking down Gardner, the most vulnerable Republican in the Senate.
  #58  
Old 05-06-2020, 08:06 PM
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This guy doesn't make much sense. Even though his map has CO as Likely GOP, he says this about the race:
He's only just starting to cover senate races. That write-up he's done was all done in the last 24 hours (check the bottom of the page) so I expect the map to reflect swiftly. Up to now he has only concentrated on the presidential race.
  #59  
Old 05-07-2020, 11:06 AM
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I don't think even without Trump stench that Kobach would be a good choice for the GOP in KS....
Just got a fundraising letter from his likely Dem opponent, Barbara Bollier, in which a picture of Trump pointing approvingly at Kobach is featured quite prominently.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
...Incidentally, I think Amy Mcgrath would be a wonderful Senator [for Kentucky]. I even sent her a small donation.
As did I! There's also a super PAC helping her: https://ditchmitchfund.com/
  #60  
Old 05-20-2020, 11:44 AM
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Just sent to me by a politically-savvy Ohio lawyer I know:

Friends,

I hope that each of you remain safe and healthy—far more so than our democracy currently is. From the bungled response to the pandemic to the corrupting of the DOJ as evidenced by the Flynn debacle to the trumpeting of a made-up scandal as a diversionary tactic, it’s clear that the Conman-in-Chief is corrupting our government and our institutions as badly as we’d each feared. Perhaps even worse.

So what’s the antidote? We all know the #1 mission: Dump Trump this November. And we’ll all do our part here in Ohio....

We each have to make decisions about how to allocate our donation dollars to get the best bang for our bucks. Along those lines, I just gave to Sen. Gary Peters (D-Mich.). Here’s why:

· Michigan is more in play than Ohio is, and it’ll be nearly impossible for the Orange Overlord to win a second term without winning Michigan.

· Sen. Peters’ poll numbers correlate strongly with Biden’s. Engaging Democrats benefits both candidates in lockstep.

· Mission #2 after dumping Trump is to improve the Senate. To do that, we need to defend the seats we already have. Two Democratic Senators stand for reelection in states that Trump won in 2016—Sen. Peters, and Sen. Doug Jones. Of the two, Sen. Peters’ race will likely be tighter, and it is the only one taking place in a state that’s in play in the Electoral College.

· Sen. Peters has deep relationships in Michigan’s urban centers and can engage those voters to increase turnout that will benefit Democrats up and down the ballot.

For all these reasons, in my estimation, Sen. Peters’ campaign is an efficient destination for donations—one that can help us accomplish two goals with the same money. As you all consider how to allocate your donation dollars this cycle, I hope that you’ll consider Sen. Peters’ campaign.

I’m happy to talk more about Sen. Peters with anyone who’s interested. And for those of you who would like to support his campaign, here’s a link you can use to do so: https://secure.actblue.com/donate/na051720v

Many thanks for your time and consideration. Stay safe. Wash your hands.
  #61  
Old 05-20-2020, 05:58 PM
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There's a lot of weird noise involving Gary Peters lately.

Besides Doug Jones, who is doomed, Peters seems to be the most at risk Dem.

Peters is essential to most paths to the Dems getting 50 seats and Trump did win Michigan in 2016 so I could see why Republicans would want to target it, but other than Republicans really wanting to win it, I have seen nothing to indicate that they have any real chance of winning this seat.

there's a lot of time between now and November though.
  #62  
Old 05-21-2020, 12:16 PM
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an outside group is attacking Sen. Tillis here in NC with TV ads but I normally don't see them since I tend to tape and fast forward through them.
  #63  
Old 05-21-2020, 01:35 PM
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From the Republican uh-oh department: Arizona Sen. Martha McSally is sliding in the polls, dropping four percentage points in a month.

McSally now trails Democrat Mark Kelly by 13 points, according to the latest tracking poll by OH Predictive Insights.

While the April poll of 600 likely voters favored Kelly 51% to McSally’s 42%, in May it’s now 51%-38%.

The poll shows independents breaking more than 2-1 for Kelly.

“McSally is doing terribly,” pollster Mike Noble told me on Monday. “There’s no way to find a bright spot on that one.”
https://azcentral.com/story/opinion/...ws/5218402002/
  #64  
Old 05-21-2020, 01:37 PM
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More on the GOP challenger in Michigan, and a possible Trump-millstone effect: https://www.aol.com/article/news/202...cket/24377543/
  #65  
Old 05-21-2020, 02:15 PM
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538 added a couple of Michigan senate polls to their database today.

Mich. , MAY 11-17, Peters 48%, James 43%, Peters +5
Mich. , MAY 1-5, Hodas & Associates*, Peters 48%, James 36%, Peters +12
  #66  
Old 05-21-2020, 10:52 PM
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Just gave to Steve Bullock's U.S. Senate campaign in Montana. I liked what I saw of him as a presidential candidate, and there's a real chance of flipping this seat.

https://stevebullock.com/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Steve_...an_politician)
  #67  
Old 05-22-2020, 02:36 PM
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Can anyone link to 538 overall senate map? I am having problems finding it.
  #68  
Old 05-22-2020, 08:43 PM
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Can anyone link to 538 overall senate map? I am having problems finding it.
They won't release a senate model until much closer to the election.

In 2018 they did it early September.

538 Senate Model is out
  #69  
Old 05-26-2020, 10:22 AM
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Democrats looking good in southwestern Senate races: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/polit...est/index.html
  #70  
Old 05-26-2020, 11:55 AM
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The most recent Arizona senate poll was absolutely brutal for incumbent R McSally.

U.S. Senate Ariz., MAY 9-11, 2020, OH Predictive Insights, Kelly 51%, McSally 38%, Kelly +13
  #71  
Old 05-26-2020, 02:53 PM
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Martha McSally losing bigly would be a win for the nation.
  #72  
Old 05-26-2020, 11:11 PM
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Martha McSally losing bigly would be a win for the nation.
I would vote against her for her strong support of Trump, were I an Arizona voter. But my two regrets are that she has long been an advocate for retaining the A-10 Thunderbolt aircraft (of which she is a former pilot) in the U.S. Air Force inventory, and an opponent of requiring U.S. servicewomen to wear the abaya when off-base in Saudi Arabia, both issues on which I strongly agree with her.

https://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb...d.php?t=719159
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha...ly_v._Rumsfeld)
  #73  
Old 05-26-2020, 11:32 PM
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Remember in the run up to the 2018 elections when the Republican racist dogwhistle was pretending that a migrant caravan was dangerous?

Arizona Republican Senate Candidate Says She Doesn’t Want to Talk Health Care—Just “Things That Matter”
Martha McSally said she’d rather talk about the caravan.


She deserves to lose.
  #74  
Old 05-27-2020, 08:24 AM
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Looks like the White House is getting worried about losing the Senate: https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/26/polit...use/index.html
  #75  
Old 05-27-2020, 09:40 AM
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Another AZ senate poll released today...

U.S. Senate, Ariz., MAY 18-22, 2020, HighGround Inc., Kelly 51%, McSally 41%, Kelly +10

When she was in the house McSally was a moderate Republican who cared mostly about defense and veteran issues. She didn't endorse Trump in 2016 and called his Access Hollywood tape comments disgusting.

In her 2018 senate run she went all in on Trump and didn't look back.
  #76  
Old 05-27-2020, 01:57 PM
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Another senate poll released today...

U.S. Senate, S.C., MAY 23-26, 2020, Civiqs, Harrison 42%, Graham 42%, EVEN

I'm slightly more inclined to believe that Civiqs sucks at polling than South Carolina is in play, but it's an interesting result nonetheless.
  #77  
Old 05-28-2020, 10:06 AM
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U.S. Senate, Maine, MAY 13-18, 2020, Victory Geek*, Gideon 51%, Collins 42%, Gideon +9

* Indicates that this was a partisan sponsored poll. That doesn't necessarily mean it's inaccurate, but polls of this type tend to only be released if they are favorable to the sponsoring party.

FYI, 538 is my polling aggregate source.
  #78  
Old 05-28-2020, 11:22 AM
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I may be wrong but I think it's not rare for challengers to lead early polls and lose in the end.
  #79  
Old 05-28-2020, 01:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lance Turbo View Post
Another senate poll released today...

U.S. Senate, S.C., MAY 23-26, 2020, Civiqs, Harrison 42%, Graham 42%, EVEN

I'm slightly more inclined to believe that Civiqs sucks at polling than South Carolina is in play, but it's an interesting result nonetheless.
The point is- with Texas, Az, Georgia, Kentucky and yes- NC all being serious battleground states, the GOP is gonna have to spend $ everywhere, and double down on voter suppression.


Stacey Abrams almost won in Georgia.
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