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  #51  
Old 05-09-2018, 08:19 AM
DigitalC DigitalC is offline
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Wait, we were rooting against him? I was looking forward to Joe Manchin having a safe seat.
  #52  
Old 05-09-2018, 08:51 AM
Fotheringay-Phipps Fotheringay-Phipps is offline
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Originally Posted by Folacin View Post
Shows how fast partisan alignment has changed. WV was a coal state, meaning a union state, meaning a Democratic state. He was a two-term governor (winning every county the second time), won a special-ish election to replace Robert Byrd to get into the Senate. He won a full-term with 60% of the vote in 2012 - it seems inconceivable that with no scandals he is even in trouble, but tht is the USA in 2018.
The main problem a guy like Manchin (moderate Democrat in a red state) has is his identification with the national Democratic Party. And with the rise in partisanship in recent years, this has become a much bigger albatross than it once was.

Partly because the Democratic label is even more toxic than ever (to RW voters) and partly because Manchin himself is under more pressure (from his own party) to take a hard line stance on issues that he might have otherwise been more flexible about.

The same is true in reverse for moderate Republicans running in blue states.
  #53  
Old 05-09-2018, 08:54 AM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
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Originally Posted by Lord Feldon View Post
Presumably Jenkins is most well known in the southern part of the state, since that's where his Congressional district is.

Ohio's GOP senate race split mostly along TV market boundaries.
In Indiana for the GOP senate you had 3 candidates. Rokita, Messer and Braun. Rokita and Messer are both representatives, and both won lots of counties in their districts but very few counties elsewhere. Braun won pretty much every other county that wasn't in the 4th or 6th district.
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  #54  
Old 05-09-2018, 01:44 PM
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Rick Kitchen Rick Kitchen is offline
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Originally Posted by Lord Feldon View Post
Eh. In 2014, Democratic primary voters outnumbered Republicans by an even bigger margin. (And being a "Democrat" in a WV primary doesn't mean much. In 2012, Barack Obama only got 59% in the presidential primary.)
Manchin calls himself a Democrat, he'd be a Republican in any other state.
  #55  
Old 05-10-2018, 12:56 AM
joebuck20 joebuck20 is offline
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I just finished reading "Under the Dome" by Stephen King, and realized this guy is basically a real life Jim Rennie, sans the meth lab.
  #56  
Old 05-10-2018, 09:25 AM
UltraVires UltraVires is offline
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Originally Posted by Exapno Mapcase View Post
Can somebody explain the electoral map in West Virginia?

I've seen states split between Democrats and Republicans, but I've never seen such a sharp line between candidates of one party. What is WV like to produce this?
It was a unique election. Morrissey has better conservative bonafides, but he lives in Harper's Ferry (which some consider the DC metro area) and is originally from NJ. Jenkins is a West Virginia boy who grew up in the southern part of the state, but he used to be a Democrat who previously endorsed Hilary Clinton.

With Blankenship taking all of the far, far right votes, the rest of the state chose between a carpet bagger and a former Democrat. It looks like the people in the southern part of the state valued Jenkins and his roots (near them) better while the people in the northern part of the state would rather vote for the stronger conservative.
  #57  
Old 05-10-2018, 09:33 AM
UltraVires UltraVires is offline
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My question is, how did Joe Manchin win it in the first place?
Joe played the trick that kept the Dems in power in West Virginia for about twenty-five years longer than in other southern states: keep the federal money flowing, be pro-gun and pro-life. Joe is also an excellent politician who at least acts like (and maybe he really does) care about people.

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Well, if the primaries are any indication, Dems outnumber Pubbies roughly 7 to 6, so that's a good sign.
Latest registration numbers are Dem 43%, Rep 32%, Ind/Other 25%. The Ind number is likely skewed because while registered Dems and Reps must vote in their own respective primaries, Independents may choose which primary to cast a ballot. Also a number of former Democrats are philosophically Republicans but remember their grandfather who worked in the coal mines talking about how evil Republicans were.
  #58  
Old 05-10-2018, 09:37 AM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
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Manchin calls himself a Democrat, he'd be a Republican in any other state.
Manchin voted for the ACA and did not vote to overturn it. He also didn't vote for the GOP tax cut for the rich.

He is a conservative democrat, but he is still a democrat.
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  #59  
Old 05-21-2018, 12:01 PM
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Blankenship to wage third party bid after losing primary
  #60  
Old 05-21-2018, 12:25 PM
Lance Turbo Lance Turbo is offline
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Will he have any trouble getting on the ballot in WV? Anyone familiar with WV law in this area?

Even so, a write-in campaign might be enough help Manchin seat.
  #61  
Old 05-21-2018, 01:07 PM
ElvisL1ves ElvisL1ves is offline
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Somebody please reassure me he won't take votes from Manchin.
  #62  
Old 05-21-2018, 05:00 PM
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Of course he'd take a nonzero number of votes from Manchin. That's not the question. The question is just whether he'd take more from Manchin or from the Republican, and I think the answer to that is pretty clear.
  #63  
Old 05-21-2018, 07:10 PM
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Of course he'd take a nonzero number of votes from Manchin. That's not the question. The question is just whether he'd take more from Manchin or from the Republican, and I think the answer to that is pretty clear.
I'm not up on WV politics, but I'm guessing Joe Manchin's probably having an extra martini right about now.
  #64  
Old 05-21-2018, 07:34 PM
Captain Amazing Captain Amazing is offline
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Will he have any trouble getting on the ballot in WV? Anyone familiar with WV law in this area?

Even so, a write-in campaign might be enough help Manchin seat.
Yes. It's illegal. West Virginia has a "sore loser" law, which says if you run for and fail to win a primary election for one of the two main parties, you can't then get on the ballot for a third party. He's going to challenge it in court, I'm sure, but....
  #65  
Old 05-21-2018, 07:40 PM
Merneith Merneith is offline
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Go, Splitters, go!
  #66  
Old 05-21-2018, 08:37 PM
alphaboi867 alphaboi867 is offline
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This is hilarious. Good luck in court Don.
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  #67  
Old 05-22-2018, 07:35 AM
ElvisL1ves ElvisL1ves is offline
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The question is just whether he'd take more from Manchin or from the Republican, and I think the answer to that is pretty clear.
Certainly that's the question, but it's so hard (and distasteful) to get inside the mind of the average WV Republican that I don't agree it's all that clear.
  #68  
Old 05-22-2018, 08:30 AM
UltraVires UltraVires is offline
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Yes. It's illegal. West Virginia has a "sore loser" law, which says if you run for and fail to win a primary election for one of the two main parties, you can't then get on the ballot for a third party. He's going to challenge it in court, I'm sure, but....
Yes and no. The law is poorly worded and there is a debate over its applicability to Blankenship:

https://www.wvgazettemail.com/electi...d32c56da1.html
  #69  
Old 05-22-2018, 09:17 AM
Bijou Drains Bijou Drains is offline
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Sore loser laws don't make sense to me . Just another example of the 2 big parties making sure they keep control. I hope the laws are thrown out in every state that has them.
  #70  
Old 05-22-2018, 09:47 AM
Exapno Mapcase Exapno Mapcase is offline
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
Yes and no. The law is poorly worded and there is a debate over its applicability to Blankenship:

https://www.wvgazettemail.com/electi...d32c56da1.html
That article does throw out one huge blocking wall:

Quote:
However, a different code section could trip up Blankenship, which states a candidate cannot have been registered with any other political party within 60 days of filing the announcement.
And he can't wait out the 60 days because the amended law that fixed the are/was loophole goes into effect on June 7.
  #71  
Old 05-22-2018, 09:57 AM
UltraVires UltraVires is offline
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That article does throw out one huge blocking wall:



And he can't wait out the 60 days because the amended law that fixed the are/was loophole goes into effect on June 7.
The problem with that law is that it seems to only apply for persons filing to run in a partisan primary. The intention of that law was so that a person couldn't cherry pick an easy path through the primary by registering as a Democrat or Republican as the strength of the field indicated.
  #72  
Old 05-22-2018, 10:19 AM
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Sore loser laws don't make sense to me . Just another example of the 2 big parties making sure they keep control. I hope the laws are thrown out in every state that has them.
Do you know what the spoiler effect is?
  #73  
Old 05-22-2018, 02:59 PM
Bijou Drains Bijou Drains is offline
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yes I know about spoilers.

For those that don't know Lisa Murkowski from Alaska lost her senate primary and then won as a write in candidate in 2010. She won again in 2016 on the ballot.
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