Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1601  
Old 08-13-2018, 05:37 PM
Ravenman Ravenman is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 23,961
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
I agree that it seems like jumping the gun a bit, but to stretch your analogy a bit further--if you're the seller, then you know the title search is going to come back clean. So if that's the main obstacle, then it might not be too much to say you have a secure deal.
No, its not the same at all. For example, how is Elon supposed to know that CFIUS review is going to come back clean?
  #1602  
Old 08-13-2018, 05:49 PM
Dr. Strangelove's Avatar
Dr. Strangelove Dr. Strangelove is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,990
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ravenman View Post
No, its not the same at all. For example, how is Elon supposed to know that CFIUS review is going to come back clean?
It's your analogy, man . I'm just saying that for your example of a home seller, it is pretty reasonable for someone to say they have a buyer lined up if the title search is all that's left, because they have extra information available.

I doubt Elon has any idea of the results of a CFIUS investigation. Though I think it's pretty obvious that the statement came with those sorts of caveats, since those questions can't possibly be answered until the board votes on a real proposal. I've no idea if the SEC will see it that way.
  #1603  
Old 08-13-2018, 06:28 PM
Ravenman Ravenman is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 23,961
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
It's your analogy, man . I'm just saying that for your example of a home seller, it is pretty reasonable for someone to say they have a buyer lined up if the title search is all that's left, because they have extra information available.

I doubt Elon has any idea of the results of a CFIUS investigation. Though I think it's pretty obvious that the statement came with those sorts of caveats, since those questions can't possibly be answered until the board votes on a real proposal. I've no idea if the SEC will see it that way.
Good lord.
  #1604  
Old 08-13-2018, 06:46 PM
Dr. Strangelove's Avatar
Dr. Strangelove Dr. Strangelove is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,990
So, you think the SEC will take serious action against Musk? Jail time? Force him to step down as CEO? A non-trivial fine? Because short of actual action, this is really just semantic wankery.
  #1605  
Old 08-13-2018, 07:18 PM
Ravenman Ravenman is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 23,961
I dont know securities law, but I just have to ask you a question.

At a couple points in this thread, you talked about how Tesla fanboys often take things too far. Do you consider yourself a fanboy; and if not, what differentiates your views on Tesla from those who take it too far?
  #1606  
Old 08-13-2018, 07:39 PM
Dr. Strangelove's Avatar
Dr. Strangelove Dr. Strangelove is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,990
Not a big fan of labels. I suppose I should try harder not to label others.

I don't know the exact threshold between healthy and unhealthy fanboyism. I like Musk only insofar as he keeps running Tesla and SpaceX running in the right direction. I don't like everything he's done, but at the same time he's earned a lot of credibility in the past decade, so it would take more than a few ill-advised tweets to change that opinion.

As for Tesla specifically, I don't have much of a choice when it comes down to it. There are no other cool EVs. When another cool EV appears, I'll reevaluate my Tesla fan status.

Over two years ago I put a deposit down for the Model 3 based on sheer blind optimism and fanboyism (frankly, there's not much else that could get me to wake at 6 am). I had no real reason to believe that Tesla would even survive long enough to build anything, but that optimism paid off. Until that pattern changes, I'll put my confidence in Tesla over their naysayers.
  #1607  
Old 08-14-2018, 10:56 PM
Magiver Magiver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Dayton Ohio USA
Posts: 27,552
There's nothing wrong with optimism and you're entitled to be a fanboy of Tesla. I think Musk has already cemented his place in history as bigger than life.

But as a CEO he's a dick with other people's money. If someone made a movie of him nobody would believe it. He's like a James Bond super villain complete with his own rocket.
__________________
"People enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought": John Anderson
  #1608  
Old 08-14-2018, 11:35 PM
Dr. Strangelove's Avatar
Dr. Strangelove Dr. Strangelove is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,990
As I've said, I'm a bigger fan of Tesla and SpaceX than I am of Musk. The two companies are bigger than Musk, and are filled with all kinds of people that are also hyper-talented but without the narcissism--JB Straubel, Franz von Holzhausen, Tom Mueller, Gwynne Shotwell, etc.

But let's not pretend that Elon is just gambling with other people's money. He put every dime of his PayPal money into Tesla and SpaceX at a very risky time. And today, virtually all of his net worth is in the two companies. Actually, I suspect that over 100% of his net worth is in the two companies, since I know he's taken out loans simply to buy more shares.
  #1609  
Old Yesterday, 05:16 PM
Magiver Magiver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Dayton Ohio USA
Posts: 27,552
It's a good thing nobody said he's just gambling with other people's money.
__________________
"People enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought": John Anderson
  #1610  
Old Yesterday, 05:29 PM
Dr. Strangelove's Avatar
Dr. Strangelove Dr. Strangelove is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,990
I presumed you meant something along those lines when you said "dick with other people's money." I'm not sure what you would have meant otherwise. In any case, 20-25% of Tesla is still owned by Musk.

Ars Technica had an article where they consulted a few experts about the consequences of the tweet. TL;DR: it was ill-advised and unprecedented, though not because it was in tweet form; it's possible it will lead to some action by the SEC; however, it's unlikely that the penalty will be significant (big fine/prison/ouster as CEO/etc.).

Really, I hope the SEC gives him just enough of a slap on the wrist to make him think twice about doing that again, but not so much as to damage his ability to run Tesla.
  #1611  
Old Yesterday, 06:10 PM
Dr. Strangelove's Avatar
Dr. Strangelove Dr. Strangelove is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,990
In other news, here are a couple of nice charts of Model 3 sales:
https://i.redd.it/itjj7mqqywf11.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/rGCSqLr.png

The first is an illustration of just how petty and absurd the early production rate criticism was. It's an excellent example of exponential growth. Like all exponentials, the first part of the curve is essentially negligible; although it is growing at the same rate as later on, the absolute numbers are so low that they are utterly dominated by the later parts of the curve. This is exactly why I argued earlier that looking at Tesla's shortfall in absolute numbers is nonsense; the right way to look at it is in the delay over time. And indeed, Tesla really was just 6 months late; not a big deal and far less than previous delays. Looked at without all the noise of clickbait garbage news, the production growth looks remarkably uneventful.

In fact, you can see that even though almost all of the total production happened in the last few months, the growth is actually slowing down. The first 4 months grew by a factor of 10. The next four months grew by another factor of 10. But the final four months only grew by a factor of 4. As expected, we're reaching the end of the exponential curve and into the tail-off portion. There's less than another factor of 3 to go before they reach their long-term projected limit *.

As for the second chart, you can see that the Model 3 comprises around half of all EV/PHEV vehicles sold in the US. And that's Tesla competing against their own S/X vehicles. Not to mention including PHEVs, which is really kinda silly.

It'll be pretty cool when Tesla faces some real competition. The Bolt obviously wasn't it, despite coming out significantly earlier (though the car itself was only half the problem).

*: Some of the sales in July obviously belong in June--the exponential doesn't look smooth at that point. Those were almost certainly sales delayed to postpone the 200k limit. Doesn't change the overall picture, though.
  #1612  
Old Yesterday, 07:54 PM
Ravenman Ravenman is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 23,961
I test drove a Model 3 Performance the other day. First, I really, really liked the car.

But I told the co-pilot aka salesman that I was really interested in the standard model to come, and he said driving it in chill mode would give me a good idea what a non performance M3 would be like. I also drove it in the non-chill mode for a bit.

My overall assessment between the two: imagine you are given a burger made of Kobe beef, with a fine brioche bun, with double fried frites, all for a price of $18. Id take that in a second. Then, imagine how great that burger would be if there were some organic free range sesame seeds on that bun, just for an additional $7. Whut?

Obviously, theres a (small) market for sesame seeds if you want to pay a silly price, but... its silly. Ive read of some silly people with too much money who are ready to trade in their early M3s for performance versions, and man, they live on a different planet than most of us (either because of their priorities or their vast wealth).

But man, now I really want one. And seeing that the standard version is expected in production in 5-8 months (which is probably 6-10 months in Earth time), Im guessing the odds of me being able to get one when my lease expires in a year are getting substantially worse.

Fuckers.
  #1613  
Old Yesterday, 08:02 PM
Dr. Strangelove's Avatar
Dr. Strangelove Dr. Strangelove is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,990
Nice! I've been tempted to try out the performance version just for kicks. But really all it would accomplish is to make me wish I had one. The RWD model is still very quick.

Did the version you drive have the white interior? I've seen one driving around here from a distance, and it certainly looked cool from the outside but wouldn't mind taking a closer peek.
  #1614  
Old Yesterday, 08:14 PM
Ravenman Ravenman is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 23,961
Yes, it had white. It was the sort of thing where I thought it looked very cool, but not actually sure it was my bag.

One other thought: I tried Autopilot on the freeway. It was both cool and frightening. Im more firm in my opinion that Im just going to let all that tech mature for a few more years before I actually trust it.
  #1615  
Old Yesterday, 08:22 PM
Dr. Strangelove's Avatar
Dr. Strangelove Dr. Strangelove is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,990
From photos, the white is indeed a bit on the spaceshippy side. The black is pretty conventional once you get past the dashboard. Though I guess I'm not sure what the non-PUP version will look like. I like the wood trim with PUP (the BMW had that too).

Given that Autopilot can be added later, a wait and see approach is completely reasonable. I like it a lot but it really depends on your driving situation and style. Some people use it in situations where I would not.
  #1616  
Old Yesterday, 09:05 PM
Magiver Magiver is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: Dayton Ohio USA
Posts: 27,552
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
In other news, here are a couple of nice charts of Model 3 sales:
https://i.redd.it/itjj7mqqywf11.jpg
https://i.imgur.com/rGCSqLr.png

The first is an illustration of just how petty and absurd the early production rate criticism was.
the criticism was of Musk's predictions.
__________________
"People enjoy the comfort of opinion without the discomfort of thought": John Anderson
  #1617  
Old Yesterday, 11:19 PM
Bone's Avatar
Bone Bone is online now
Extrajudicial
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 9,252
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ravenman View Post
Yes, it had white. It was the sort of thing where I thought it looked very cool, but not actually sure it was my bag.

One other thought: I tried Autopilot on the freeway. It was both cool and frightening. Im more firm in my opinion that Im just going to let all that tech mature for a few more years before I actually trust it.
One of us! One of us! One of us!
  #1618  
Old Yesterday, 11:38 PM
Dr. Strangelove's Avatar
Dr. Strangelove Dr. Strangelove is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,990
Quote:
Originally Posted by Magiver View Post
the criticism was of Musk's predictions.
It was the nature of the criticism that was the problem, not its existence. Which sounds worse:
- Tesla only produces one-twentieth as many Model 3s as projected
- Model 3 production ramp delayed by 6 months

Both are true, and refer to the same exact figures, but the first sounds disastrous and the second no big deal. More importantly, the first has no real long-term relevance. The production during that initial period was always going to be fairly small. It is the end of an exponential ramp that tells you everything about the behavior.
  #1619  
Old Today, 12:21 AM
Dr. Strangelove's Avatar
Dr. Strangelove Dr. Strangelove is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 6,990
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ravenman View Post
and he said driving it in chill mode would give me a good idea what a non performance M3 would be like.
Incidentally--while this is probably the best simulation they could give, it's inaccurate in one particular way. Chill mode caps acceleration and smooths out changes in acceleration (for the engineers: it limits jerk). So you won't get quite the same "sharpness" in response time as you would with a normal non-performance model. Peak acceleration may differ between models but they all respond instantly to throttle input (outside of chill mode).
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:00 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright 2018 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017