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  #1  
Old 05-29-2020, 03:07 PM
Lance Turbo is offline
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May 2020 Swing State Confidence Pool


Consider these 15 swing states/districts:

Arizona
Florida
Georgia
Iowa
Maine
Maine CD-02
Michigan
Minnesota
Nebraska CD-02
New Hampshire
North Carolina
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Texas
Wisconsin

For each of these choose whether the will go D or R in the 2020 presidential election, and then assign a confidence value from 1 to 15 to each. Each confidence value must be used exactly once. Points in the amount of the confidence value will be awarded for correct guesses and incorrect guesses will earn zero points i.e. assign 15 points to the race where you are most confident of the outcome and 1 point to the race where you are least confident. The total number of points earned will be used to rank entries from best to worst.

My entry looks like this...

Code:
Race	Party	Confidence
AZ	D	4
FL	R	1
GA	R	7
IA	R	11
ME	D	15
ME-02	R	12
MI 	D	8
MN	D	14
NE-02	D	5
NH	D	10
NC	R	2
OH	R	9
PA	D	6
TX	R	13
WI	D	3
Entries will be accepted until 11:59:59 PM CDT. To enter, just post in this thread.

Per board rules there is no prize, monetary or otherwise, for winning this competition.
  #2  
Old 05-30-2020, 05:46 AM
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Code:
Race	Party	Confidence
AZ	D	2
FL	R	6
GA	R	8
IA	R	11
ME	D	15
ME-02	R	13
MI 	D	7
MN	D	12
NE-02	D	5
NH	D	10
NC	R	4
OH	R	9
PA	D	3
TX	R	14
WI	R	1
  #3  
Old 05-30-2020, 08:12 AM
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Code:
Race	Party	Confidence
AZ	R      1
FL	R	3
GA	R	11
IA	R	12
ME	D	14
ME-02	R	6
MI 	D	4
MN	D	7
NE-02	D	5
NH	D	10
NC	R	9
OH	R	8
PA	D	13
TX	R	15
WI	D      2
  #4  
Old 05-30-2020, 11:24 AM
Lance Turbo is offline
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Thank you for the entries.

Interesting, all three outcomes are very similar everyone has a Democratic party victory so far. That's not the usual septimus doom and gloom I've come to expect.

Here's a summary of the differences...

I have D win both AZ and WI so electoral college is D 290 - R 248.
septimus has D win AZ, R win WI, EC goes D 279 - R 259
JKellyMap has R win AZ, D win WI, EC goes D 280 - R 258

Everyone resisted the pundits' favorite outcome...
R win AZ, R win WI, EC goes D 269 - R 269
  #5  
Old 05-30-2020, 09:06 PM
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I applaud anyone who takes the time to run one of these contests, but why the rush? If you had given say a week to get entries in there would likely have been more entrants.
  #6  
Old 05-30-2020, 11:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
I applaud anyone who takes the time to run one of these contests, but why the rush? If you had given say a week to get entries in there would likely have been more entrants.
This thread was an after thought and a simpler version of a similar thread I started that gave half a month to enter.

I plan to do one for the ending of every month from May to October so folks will have plenty of time enter future threads. I expect participation will rise as we get closer to the election.

The idea is to see how the collective board wisdom evolves as we get closer to election. Additionally we may learn some things about the predictive power of various data sources.
  #7  
Old 05-31-2020, 06:42 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lance Turbo View Post
Interesting, all three outcomes are very similar everyone has a Democratic party victory so far. That's not the usual septimus doom and gloom I've come to expect.
Maybe I think that a few states' elections will be subverted, but am unwilling to guess which states. Or that you'll adjudicate the contest based on November's popular votes, but the GOP will find some way to subvert the E.C., e.g. via faithless electors.

OTOH, deadline is still hours away and perhaps I should re-submit with a more pessimistic guess. However I can't afford the time lost from my busy schedule!
  #8  
Old 05-31-2020, 01:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
I applaud anyone who takes the time to run one of these contests, but why the rush? If you had given say a week to get entries in there would likely have been more entrants.
Yeah, I didn't even see this til after the deadline. Sorry.
  #9  
Old 05-31-2020, 03:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by digs View Post
Yeah, I didn't even see this til after the deadline. Sorry.
The deadline is still over eight hours away.

I see now that I left the date out of the OP.

One can enter the May contest until the end of May. 11:59:59 PM CT tonight.

Last edited by Lance Turbo; 05-31-2020 at 03:26 PM.
  #10  
Old 05-31-2020, 04:15 PM
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My entry

Arizona D 2
Florida D 3
Georgia R 4
Iowa R 8
Maine D 7
Maine CD-02 D 6
Michigan D 12
Minnesota D 15
Nebraska CD-02 R 1
New Hampshire D 10
North Carolina D 5
Ohio R 11
Pennsylvania D 14
Texas R 13
Wisconsin D 9
  #11  
Old 05-31-2020, 04:23 PM
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My entry

Arizona D 2
Florida D 3
Georgia R 4
Iowa R 8
Maine D 7
Maine CD-02 D 6
Michigan D 12
Minnesota D 15
Nebraska CD-02 R 1
New Hampshire D 10
North Carolina D 5
Ohio R 11
Pennsylvania D 14
Texas R 13
Wisconsin D 9
  #12  
Old 05-31-2020, 04:50 PM
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OK, I'll play...

Arizona D 2
Florida D 1
Georgia R 11
Iowa R 6
Maine D 13
Maine CD-02 D 3
Michigan D 8
Minnesota D 12
Nebraska CD-02 R 7
New Hampshire D 15
North Carolina R 4
Ohio R 10
Pennsylvania D 9
Texas R 14
Wisconsin R 5
  #13  
Old 05-31-2020, 05:26 PM
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Another split opinion on Wisconsin. This time, joined by a split opinion on North Carolina.

Does Fretful Porcupine forecast a Trump victory?
  #14  
Old 05-31-2020, 05:41 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JKellyMap View Post
Another split opinion on Wisconsin. This time, joined by a split opinion on North Carolina.

Does Fretful Porcupine forecast a Trump victory?
No, certainly not -- if all of my predictions are right, the final electoral college vote would be Biden 309, Trump 228. I admit I'm least confident about FL and AZ, but I am not a lot more confident about WI and NC, by any means.

Last edited by Fretful Porpentine; 05-31-2020 at 05:42 PM.
  #15  
Old 05-31-2020, 05:47 PM
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* Trump 229. Forgot about that silly Nebraska district.
  #16  
Old 05-31-2020, 05:56 PM
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Got it. If your calculations are correct, that means your inclusion of AZ as a Dem state is quite important. I see they have 11 electoral votes (and, likely, 12 votes in 2024).
  #17  
Old 05-31-2020, 06:48 PM
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Code:
Race	Party	Confidence
AZ	D	2
FL	R	10
GA	R	15
IA	R	11
ME	D	9
ME-02	R	1
MI 	D	5
MN	D	7
NE-02	R  13
NH	D	8
NC	R	4
OH	R	12
PA	D	6
TX	R	14
WI	R	3
This would give Biden a narrow victory, substituting Arizona for Wisconsin.

Last edited by FlikTheBlue; 05-31-2020 at 06:49 PM.
  #18  
Old 05-31-2020, 07:07 PM
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My mistake — I see now the big Democratic state in Fretful Porcupine’s submission is FLORIDA.

I have little confidence in that state going D — but I guess there’s hope!
  #19  
Old 05-31-2020, 07:16 PM
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Polls are indeed showing a slight Biden lead in Florida in the past month or two — the most recent one from a 538 highly rated pollster, Fox News, had Biden up 46% to 43% on April 23. Of course, this far out, this means little...but I concede Florida is at least in play.

Last edited by JKellyMap; 05-31-2020 at 07:16 PM.
  #20  
Old 05-31-2020, 07:21 PM
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I'm basing my Florida rating on the facts that 1) polls of the state generally show Biden with a small but consistent lead; and 2) Governor DeSantis is one of the very, very few state governors who saw his approval ratings drop in the wake of coronavirus, and if people don't like his response, they likely won't like Trump's either.
  #21  
Old 05-31-2020, 09:03 PM
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Six entires in. About three hours to go.

Summary of entries thus far:

Code:
Race	Lance Turbo	septimus	JKellyMap	BobLibDem	Fretful Porpentine	FlikTheBlue						
AZ	D 4		D 2		R 1		D 2		D 2			D 2
FL	R 1		R 6		R 3		D 3		D 1			R 10
GA	R 7		R 8		R 11		R 4		R 11			R 15
IA	R 11		R 11		R 12		R 8		R 6			R 11
ME	D 15		D 15		D 14		D 7		D 13			D 9
ME-02	R 12		R 13		R 6		D 6		D 3			R 1
MI 	D 8		D 7		D 4		D 12		D 8			D 5
MN	D 14		D 12		D 7		D 15		D 12			D 7
NE-02	D 5		D 5		D 5		R 1		R 7			R 13
NH	D 10		D 10		D 10		D 10		D 15			D 8
NC	R 2		R 4		R 9		D 5		R 4			R 4
OH	R 9		R 9		R 8		R 11		R 10			R 12
PA	D 6		D 3		D 13		D 14		D 9			D 6
TX	R 13		R 14		R 15		R 13		R 14			R 14
WI	D 3		R 1		D 2		D 9		R 5			R 3
  #22  
Old 06-01-2020, 08:53 AM
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Thanks for doing this. The statistical change over time should be interesting.
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