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Old 04-13-2020, 10:24 PM
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Justin Amash considers third-party run ?


Not a trace of a hint of a chance he could win (I don't think???), but . . .

Could he be the Republicans' Ralph Nader this time around?

ETA: Amash teases possibility of third-party presidential bid

Last edited by Senegoid; 04-13-2020 at 10:25 PM.
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:25 PM
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He won't get any Republicans to vote for him
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:25 PM
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Link for reference.
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:25 PM
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Not even some Never-Trumpers?
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:26 PM
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He won't get any Republicans to vote for him
He absolutely would in Michigan.
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:26 PM
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Surprise! Look at Post #1 again! I beat you to it!

(Interesting that we chose the same link, out of the dozens that Google turns up.)
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:27 PM
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He won't get any Republicans to vote for him
Of course not, some of what he’s saying is sensible.
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:28 PM
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Surprise! Look at Post #1 again! I beat you to it!
Voodoo!

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Old 04-13-2020, 10:31 PM
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Wow. This board is ALIVE! Seven responses in just two minutes.
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:34 PM
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Okay... If he might become Trump's Ralph Nader, what has to happen?

He would have to get enough of Trump's votes in any one state to throw the election in that state to Biden, that would have otherwise gone to Trump. Is that even something we could dare to hope for? ETA: So, could that happen in Michigan?

(Or, he could snag a few electors in those two states with proportional electors?)

Last edited by Senegoid; 04-13-2020 at 10:36 PM.
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Old 04-13-2020, 10:57 PM
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Okay... If he might become Trump's Ralph Nader, what has to happen?

He would have to get enough of Trump's votes in any one state to throw the election in that state to Biden, that would have otherwise gone to Trump. Is that even something we could dare to hope for? ETA: So, could that happen in Michigan?

(Or, he could snag a few electors in those two states with proportional electors?)
There are a lot of people in west Michigan (Grand Rapids area on westward) who would be happy to have a normal, traditional conservative to vote for. That area, which is where he's from, is full of religious conservatives who are actually horrified by Trump. Trump's personal life, his mistreatment of cultural and political norms, his mistreatment of immigrants and refugees, his crude ways. If Amash could pull enough votes from Trump in Kent and Ottawa Counties, that would be the finishing move on Donald in this state, and I think he could.

I don't know if Amash could do much in any other state, but he could definitely do some damage against Trump in the portion of Michigan that otherwise leans red. For other states, it would depend on how much the never-Trump conservatives would be willing to fund his campaign, and I'm not convinced the money would be there for him.

So my hot take: This would help Biden win Michigan, but not much else.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 04-13-2020 at 10:58 PM.
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Old 04-14-2020, 12:28 AM
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I don't see him having too much of an effect one way or another. The only people who would vote for him are people who are disgusted with Trump but can't bring themselves to vote for a Democrat. Without Amash on the ballot those people would probably either not vote, vote Libertarian, or write in Donald Duck. Those few who would hold their nose are probably about equally like to hold it voting for Biden as holding it voting from Trump. This is a very different situation from Nader, who being far to the left of Gore was drawing votes strictly from his constituency.
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Old 04-14-2020, 02:59 AM
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We have 2004 in recent memory as an election where third parties definitely were not a factor after being one in 2000.

Plus, third parties on the right just haven’t had the appeal as those on the left, probably due to the older demographics on the right. Gary Johnson drew protest votes but took them from Hillary as well as Trump. I assume the weird anti vax stuff hurt Stein a bit with Bernie Bros determined to vote against Hillary.

So, no, I don’t think Amash will amount to much. And, from the early rumblings I’ve seen from the Greens they appear to be even nuttier this time around.
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Old 04-14-2020, 08:30 AM
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He absolutely would in Michigan.
He appears to be running solely to spoil Trump. Couldn't he pick and choose which states to appear on the ballot in? Could he only run in Michigan to take these votes away?

I worry that his candidacy is too unpredictable on a nationwide level. But, maybe if he can siphon off a state like Michigan it makes sense.
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Old 04-14-2020, 08:58 AM
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I think some states have already had the deadline for 3rd party ballot access. He could be an official write in candidate which means they would count his votes.
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Old 04-14-2020, 09:27 AM
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Not a trace of a hint of a chance he could win (I don't think???), but . . .

Could he be the Republicans' Ralph Nader this time around?
I would worry more that he would pick up GOP voters who might go for Biden because they can see that Trump is a dumpster fire, but can view Amash as an alternative. There won't be many of those, but every vote is vital.
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Old 04-14-2020, 09:49 AM
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Could he be the Republicans' Ralph Nader this time around?

ETA: Amash teases possibility of third-party presidential bid
Another Ross Perot, maybe?
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Old 04-14-2020, 10:09 AM
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If he runs, I'll give him a look. I'm going third party anyway, so if he's pro-gun and otherwise acceptable...maybe.
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Old 04-14-2020, 11:58 AM
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If he runs, I'll give him a look. I'm going third party anyway, so if he's pro-gun and otherwise acceptable...maybe.
I'm so glad your little hobby is more important to you than America's continued deterioration into a banana republic.
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Old 04-28-2020, 07:24 PM
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Looks like he is running , he has a website now.

https://amashforamerica.com/
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Old 04-28-2020, 07:41 PM
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I would worry more that he would pick up GOP voters who might go for Biden because they can see that Trump is a dumpster fire, but can view Amash as an alternative. There won't be many of those, but every vote is vital.
^This.

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If he runs, I'll give him a look. I'm going third party anyway, so if he's pro-gun and otherwise acceptable...maybe.
If he runs, Amash will be giving Trump a very valuable gift.

At the very least, Trump will owe him a Cabinet seat.
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Old 04-28-2020, 08:15 PM
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^This.



If he runs, Amash will be giving Trump a very valuable gift.

At the very least, Trump will owe him a Cabinet seat.
I'm not sure I buy that. If a liberal congressperson from a swing state decided to leave the Democratic party and subsequently became the Green Party nominee, pretty much everybody would agree that it would be an unmitigated disaster for Biden, correct? Why is the opposite scenario assumed to be anything but a disaster for Trump?
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Old 04-28-2020, 08:59 PM
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I'm not sure I buy that. If a liberal congressperson from a swing state decided to leave the Democratic party and subsequently became the Green Party nominee, pretty much everybody would agree that it would be an unmitigated disaster for Biden, correct? Why is the opposite scenario assumed to be anything but a disaster for Trump?
We can't know one way or the other. But in a scenario in which there are no credible third-party candidates, voters would have to choose Trump or the Democrat (presumably Biden). Logically, given a third option, some voters will defect from either Trump or from Biden.

What makes this better for Trump than for Biden is the likely swing states. As we understand the situation now, 'X-thousand votes taken away from Biden' will help Trump more than 'X-thousand votes taken away from Trump' will help Biden.

In other words: because of the Electoral College and the swing states in play, Amash can conceivably hurt Biden more than he will hurt Trump.
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Old 04-28-2020, 09:58 PM
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I don't buy it. People who would even consider voting for a libertarian candidate would likely never consider voting for a Democrat. I admire Amash in a way, but if he runs as a libertarian it will have negligible impact and be only detected by the most sensitive instruments.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:04 AM
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He is running as a libertarian , he will take votes from Trump Their convention was cancelled, it was going to be in May and a new date has not been picked.

Last edited by Bijou Drains; 04-29-2020 at 06:06 AM.
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Old 04-29-2020, 07:22 AM
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I think the votes he'll get will mostly be never-Trumper Republicans that would have otherwise held their nose and voted for Biden. If he really wanted to help he'd endorse Biden instead of this stunt.
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:32 AM
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Nader, and all Green Party candidates, run to left of the Democrats. They are the crazy-town alternatives to the sensible nominees. Very few conservatives and moderates vote for them.

Amash, while not exactly running to the left or right of Trump, is the sensible alternative to the crazy-town nominee. He could pick up independents, moderates, and never-Trumpers who possibly would vote for Biden. He could also siphon some votes from Trump as well, but who knows which candidate would be affected more?

I'd rather a strict Trump v Biden contest.
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Old 04-29-2020, 08:48 AM
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Libertarians never get more than 5% , he might do slightly better. The never Trump Republicans won't all vote for him , only a small percent will.
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Old 04-29-2020, 10:53 AM
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I don't buy it. People who would even consider voting for a libertarian candidate would likely never consider voting for a Democrat.
You keep saying this, and I keep being the example that proves you wrong. I've voted for several Democrats recently, and will likely vote for more in the future. What I won't do is vote for any anti-gun candidate. This year, that happens to exclude every major Dem candidate for POTUS. Third party is is, then. Probably Libertarian, but I may write myself in instead.

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Old 04-29-2020, 10:53 AM
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I don't buy it. People who would even consider voting for a libertarian candidate would likely never consider voting for a Democrat. I admire Amash in a way, but if he runs as a libertarian it will have negligible impact and be only detected by the most sensitive instruments.
I came to the Democratic party as a teenager during the Iraq War disaster and while the federal government was literally torturing people. Those were the issues that motivated me and my activism at the time, and I vote mostly for Democrats, but also for some sane libertarians if given the opportunity. We exist.

I'll vote for Amash most likely. Out of hundreds of elected republicans, he is the only one who had enough integrity to leave the rotting corpse that the party has become. That's something. That R by republicans name should be a T for Trump, because all these ghouls are cult members and no longer Republicans.

But my vote doesn't matter, like most people's. I live in slightly blue CO, but it's still not a swing state. If democrats cared half as much about the vast majority of the US population who have been disenfranchised by the electoral college as much as they cared about spoiler effects from 3rd party candidates, maybe they would start winning elections again.

And they should really worry about MI now, where Amash remains personally popular.
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:01 AM
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You keep saying this, and I keep being the example that proves you wrong. I've voted for several Democrats recently, and will likely vote for more in the future. What I won't do is vote for any anti-gun candidate. This year, that happens to exclude every major Dem candidate for POTUS. Third party is is, then. Probably Libertarian, but I may write myself in instead.
Obama was said to be anti-gun and nothing changed during his 8 years in office even after mass shootings. The gun and ammo makers loved Obama though because he made their sales go way up.
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:02 AM
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I dunno where this idea comes from that only conservative republicans sometimes vote for libertarians. You are talking about people that support UBI, abortion legalization, sex work decriminalization, ending the drug war, and stopping our endless warmongering.
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:06 AM
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Obama was said to be anti-gun and nothing changed during his 8 years in office even after mass shootings. The gun and ammo makers loved Obama though because he made their sales go way up.
And I didn't vote for him, either. I do respect the guy, and he wasn't a horrible president. Better than Bush the Younger. Practically a god compared to Trump.
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:09 AM
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Obama was said to be anti-gun and nothing changed during his 8 years in office even after mass shootings. The gun and ammo makers loved Obama though because he made their sales go way up.
It's a long game. If a handgun ban law ever made it before the US Supreme Court, the Obama apointees would vote a certain way.

Gun control is a losing issue, and the sooner Dems move away from it, the better. There is a fascist, armed element of the GOP that is only going to get more unhinged and violent as time goes on, and disarming blue states, urban centers, people of color, women, and gays is a horrible idea right now.
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:10 AM
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Presidents 1-44 are gods compared to Trump . Even Millard Filmore. Even the guy who was in office 1 month, William Harrison.
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:24 AM
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I came to the Democratic party as a teenager during the Iraq War disaster and while the federal government was literally torturing people. Those were the issues that motivated me and my activism at the time, and I vote mostly for Democrats, but also for some sane libertarians if given the opportunity. We exist.

I'll vote for Amash most likely. Out of hundreds of elected republicans, he is the only one who had enough integrity to leave the rotting corpse that the party has become. That's something. That R by republicans name should be a T for Trump, because all these ghouls are cult members and no longer Republicans.

But my vote doesn't matter, like most people's. I live in slightly blue CO, but it's still not a swing state. If democrats cared half as much about the vast majority of the US population who have been disenfranchised by the electoral college as much as they cared about spoiler effects from 3rd party candidates, maybe they would start winning elections again.

And they should really worry about MI now, where Amash remains personally popular.
And exactly what should the Democrats do about the electoral college? Get right on that constitutional amendment?
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:34 AM
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And exactly what should the Democrats do about the electoral college? Get right on that constitutional amendment?
I dunno, what can they do about 3rd party spoilers besides whine?

If the electoral college favored Democrats instead of Republicans, we wouldn't have an electoral college anymore.
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:37 AM
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There are a lot of people in west Michigan (Grand Rapids area on westward) who would be happy to have a normal, traditional conservative to vote for. That area, which is where he's from, is full of religious conservatives who are actually horrified by Trump. Trump's personal life, his mistreatment of cultural and political norms, his mistreatment of immigrants and refugees, his crude ways. If Amash could pull enough votes from Trump in Kent and Ottawa Counties, that would be the finishing move on Donald in this state, and I think he could.

I don't know if Amash could do much in any other state, but he could definitely do some damage against Trump in the portion of Michigan that otherwise leans red. For other states, it would depend on how much the never-Trump conservatives would be willing to fund his campaign, and I'm not convinced the money would be there for him.

So my hot take: This would help Biden win Michigan, but not much else.
I haven’t looked into it too closely, but I agree and I think your theory would translate to other places.
I know Republicans that hate Trump, quite a few of them. I’m not claiming this is typical of the general population, I know it’s not - but there are Republicans that hate him. Especially women.

And some of them are saying they’d vote for Biden — but I’m concerned that at the last minute they’ll start thinking about conservative judges and tax policy and they’ll hold their noses and vote Trump. I think Amash could peel off their votes.

And it would be a bridge too far for ANY Republican to actually endorse a Democratic candidate. I’ve seen anti-Trump ads run by Never Trump PAC and I was wondering what their endgame is.

I see two advantages to an Amash candidacy. One is that it will force the Trump campaign to wage a war on a second front. The other is that Amash and the PAC behind him will probably run a lot of anti-Trump ads that are desperately needed now. I do not agree with the prevailing theory that Trump is destroying himself and Biden doesn’t need to do anything. I think it’s political suicide and I think a hard 50 state Bloomberg level multi-billion dollar anti-Trump ad blitz is the only chance the Democrats have. Since they are unwilling or unable to do it, maybe the Amash campaign will pick up the slack.
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Old 04-29-2020, 11:40 AM
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A good start would've been, instead of a million people donning pussy hats and protesting Trump being a sexual harasser after his inauguration, they protested the electoral college. Instead of democratic leadership blaming racist deplorables, Russia or 3rd parties for their losses, they blamed the electoral college at every opportunity. And if ever they controlled enough state legislatures to hold a constitutional convention, they have enough balls to eliminate the electoral college. But we all know they won't.
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Old 04-29-2020, 04:10 PM
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It's a long game. If a handgun ban law ever made it before the US Supreme Court, the Obama apointees would vote a certain way.

Gun control is a losing issue, and the sooner Dems move away from it, the better. There is a fascist, armed element of the GOP that is only going to get more unhinged and violent as time goes on, and disarming blue states, urban centers, people of color, women, and gays is a horrible idea right now.
Joe Biden has been an enemy of the NRA for a quarter of a century. The 1994-2004 Federal Assault Weapons Ban was part of his 94' Crime Bill. Dems can't run away from that and certainly not in fear of a far right backlash. Poll after poll shows the majority of Americans are on the side of stricter gun laws. I give Barack Obama a pass as the tide was turning politically in his second term when Congress was GOP-controlled. However if Joe Biden as president doesn't sign gun control measures into law I will consider it a failure.

Last edited by Boycott; 04-29-2020 at 04:12 PM.
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Old 04-29-2020, 04:30 PM
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<snip>

And it would be a bridge too far for ANY Republican to actually endorse a Democratic candidate. I’ve seen anti-Trump ads run by Never Trump PAC and I was wondering what their endgame is.

<snip>
The Lincoln Project is the Never Trump PAC you're talking about, and they're all Republicans. They have endorsed Biden.

If you're curious about their "endgame," click the link.

Republican Mayor of Sterling Heights, Michigan, Michael Taylor, has endorsed Biden (The Guardian). In Michigan. That's important.

Hopefully more to come.
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Old 04-29-2020, 04:44 PM
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The Lincoln Project is the Never Trump PAC you're talking about, and they're all Republicans. They have endorsed Biden.

If you're curious about their "endgame," click the link.

Republican Mayor of Sterling Heights, Michigan, Michael Taylor, has endorsed Biden (The Guardian). In Michigan. That's important.

Hopefully more to come.
Thanks! I did not realize that but it’s very good news. I’m hoping that the strategy of lukewarm support among a really broad set of voters works, because that’s what we are stuck with.
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Old 04-29-2020, 05:52 PM
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One thing I wondered a lot about in the wake of the 2016 election was whether Democrats should actively encourage the Libertarian Party. Before Trump came along, I felt the Libertarian party had a real "moment" where it was drawing substantial support from people my age (30s.) Indeed, I considered myself a Libertarian during my 20s, though I voted for Obama and now consider myself a Democrat. However, I think the Libertarian party could draw "protest votes" away from Trump, and maybe this is a strategy that should be encouraged, whether covertly or overtly, by Democratic party strategists.

In the year leading up to Trump's election, I remember the Libertarians being ruthlessly mocked, and I repeatedly saw pretty much anyone on social media who advocated Gary Johnson getting their dicks stomped into the dirt by snarky comments. Part of this was Gary Johnson himself, who I have to admit was an awful candidate. But if it had been someone more charismatic and credentialed, shouldn't Democrats have been saying "yeah, you should vote your conscience, man" to all these people? Surely it would have peeled WAY more votes AWAY from Trump than from Clinton, right?
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:04 PM
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I think the Libertarian Party (and the Green Party) would gain some more relevance if they did more than just pop up every four years to offer a protest vote.

What do they get up to in the years between elections? At local level especially which is where small parties can have more of a say.
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Old 04-29-2020, 06:38 PM
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Not even some Never-Trumpers?
Never-Trumpers are, presumably, the smart wing of the Republican party. They're unlikely to vote 3rd party (though it will be annoying to have a better option on the national ballot than the two primary candidates and not be able to vote for him).
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Old 04-29-2020, 07:17 PM
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Never-Trumpers are, presumably, the smart wing of the Republican party. They're unlikely to vote 3rd party (though it will be annoying to have a better option on the national ballot than the two primary candidates and not be able to vote for him).
Several prominent never-Trumpers have already weighed in on Twitter:

Bill Kristol, introducing an article titled "Justin Amash Should Not Run For President (in 2020)":
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Bill Kristol @BillKristol
Here's @SarahLongwell25 & @Timodc on @justinamash : "The price of a second Trump term is too great for anyone to be playing dice with it. Trump... is a threat to the Constitution, America’s health, the rule of law...the very heart of our liberal democracy."

Justin Amash Should Not Run for President (In 2020) - The Bulwark
... thebulwark.com
9:23 PM · Apr 28, 2020·Twitter Web App 1.6K Retweets 4.3K Likes
https://twitter.com/BillKristol/stat...06797046513666

Tom Nichols, who goes into some detail on the harm Amash could do:
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Tom Nichols @RadioFreeTom
There is zero chance - zero - that Justin Amash will win the presidency.
There is plenty of chance that Amash's votes will not come from Trump's cult, but at Biden's expense.
There is a large chance this will reelect Trump.
Thanks for being the new Ralph Nader, @justinamash .
9:44 PM · Apr 28, 2020·TweetDeck 6.5K Retweets 26.9K Likes

[^thread continues:]
Patterico @Patterico · 19h Replying to @RadioFreeTom and @justinamash
Can you explain why you think he takes votes from Biden and not Trump?

Tom Nichols @RadioFreeTom · 19h
Sure. Because Trump voters are a cult. We saw this in 2016 and since. They are an immovable, non-poachable bloc. Amash gives voters who might have faced a binary choice a way of protesting while letting Trump slide. This is what happened in 2016, as well. /1
https://twitter.com/RadioFreeTom/sta...12060310851584

Rick Wilson, acerbic and to the point:
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Rick Wilson @TheRickWilson
No, let’s not.

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Justin Amash @justinamash · 23h
Let’s do this. https://amashforamerica.com
8:33 PM · Apr 28, 2020·Twitter for iPhone 2.4K Retweets 20.7K Likes
https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/st...94104449298432


No doubt more of them will be speaking up in days to come.

The thing is, we're seeing examples of the bad reasoning around this candidacy already. 'Amash would take only 5% of the vote'---as if 5% of a vote is irrelevant (ask Hillary if that's what she found to be the case in the swing states in 2016). 'Voting for a third party won't matter in my state,' with the unspoken, and highly fallacious corollary 'therefore it won't matter in any state.'

People who think it doesn't matter much whether Trump remains in office are going to do what they're going to do. It would be nice if they'd be honest and clear-eyed about it, though.


(My emphasis in the Nichols quote.)
  #47  
Old 04-30-2020, 04:43 PM
Bijou Drains is online now
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As of May 1st he will be the first libertarian in Congress. I guess it makes sense if he runs on that ticket he should officially be a party member.
  #48  
Old 04-30-2020, 05:35 PM
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Jacob Hornberger, the previous front-runner for the Libertarian Party nomination, seems disinclined to roll over:

https://jacobforliberty.com/2020/04/...-and-the-dole/
Quote:
But when it come to libertarianism, Amash is wrong, dead wrong. Libertarianism stands in firm opposition to sending a welfare dole to anyone, crisis or no crisis. It is not the role of government to take care of people, to provide for people, or to give a dole to people. It is not the role of government to be people’s daddy. Libertarianism entails the right of everyone to keep everything he earns and to decide for himself what to do with it. That’s what genuine freedom is all about.

But we can see what Amash is up to. Given his long history with the Republican Party, it is easy to picture him in the upcoming campaign for the general election pandering to voters . . .
And Hornberger has won a bunch of caucuses and primaries, including Califorina. Could Amash be too late?

Last edited by PhillyGuy; 04-30-2020 at 05:37 PM.
  #49  
Old 04-30-2020, 05:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
People who would even consider voting for a libertarian candidate would likely never consider voting for a Democrat.
Amash favors sending the $1,200 check once a month as long as there is a lockdown, which fits into the quite possible October semi-surprised of COVID-10 wave 2.

And Amash strongly talks against big business.

And I think people who today lean towards Trump are more locked in than those who lean towards Biden.

If the election was today, Biden would win the critical swing states. Amash puts that at risk.
  #50  
Old 04-30-2020, 06:04 PM
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I remember some Dems heads exploding when Howard Schultz of Starbucks talked about running as an independent. I think worrying about Amash is more of the same.
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