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Old 09-17-2019, 02:42 PM
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2019 Israeli election


Here's an update: https://www.haaretz.com/israel-news/...antz-1.7854652

Per exit polling, Netanyahu's right-wing block has lost seats since the last election, if I'm reading it right. The moderate/liberal "Blue and White" party will have more than Likud, with no one having a majority.

Am I reading this right, and if so, what does this mean? Also, feel free to talk about the election in general in this thread.
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Old 09-17-2019, 04:40 PM
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You're reading it right, but it's what the exit polls show, not an official result. We will know more soon.
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Old 09-17-2019, 04:54 PM
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Yeah, we've been burned too many times to say anything before we get actual results.
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Old 09-17-2019, 05:08 PM
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Even assuming the results DO hold, it's unclear who would be prime minister. If Likud can get enough allies together, they can still build a coalition, but that's looking less and less likely. Lieberman (the leader of a smaller party called Israel Beitanu) is apparently trying to broker a centrist alliance between Likud and Blue White, and he might end up with enough votes to force the issue... he's stated that his main goal is to push the religious parties out of any coalition that forms.
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Old 09-17-2019, 06:33 PM
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How long until the official counts start coming in?
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Old 09-17-2019, 06:49 PM
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Even assuming the results DO hold, it's unclear who would be prime minister.
Hard to overstate the relevance of this point iiandyiii.

This is the second election of the year. Netanyahu was generally expected to be able to form a coalition government out of the first results. He couldn't. That's why they held this election. Welcome to the joys of parliamentary systems with proportional representation. Israel's system even has a relatively low threshold for small parties to win seats in the Knesset; no party has ever won a majority of seats. The election results are just a starting point for the process of trying to form a government. Nothing says anyone, let alone Netanyahu, will succeed at forming a government after this election either.

Last edited by DinoR; 09-17-2019 at 06:50 PM.
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:43 PM
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Why are the results taking so long? When will they be announced?
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:51 PM
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Why are the results taking so long? When will they be announced?
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Counting votes is a laborious process in Israel. There is no electronic voting, and paper ballots are counted by hand, one by one, with observers of each political party observing. The final count is unlikely to be certified for several days.
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Old 09-17-2019, 08:57 PM
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Counting votes is a laborious process in Israel. There is no electronic voting, and paper ballots are counted by hand, one by one, with observers of each political party observing. The final count is unlikely to be certified for several days.
All federal and provincial elections in Canada are paper ballots, hand counted. They don't take several days to count. I can only imagine they need to be more careful in Israel because of the importance of minor party votes.

Last edited by CarnalK; 09-17-2019 at 09:01 PM.
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Old 09-17-2019, 09:17 PM
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Yeah, we've been burned too many times to say anything before we get actual results.
But for the sake of discussion assume Haaretz's current estimates ... what would a Kahol Lavan led coalition potentially look like and how do they get there? What are the dynamics of cobbling together the disparate other players? At most recent numbers Kahol Lavan + Joint Alliance +Democratic Union + Labor (assuming all in on the coexisting together unity deal) still come up short. Would Yisrael Beiteinu be able to coexist in such a coalition? What would be the price? Would just being rid of Bibi be enough?

Educate us please! We be ignorant! Well me anyway ...
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Old 09-17-2019, 11:08 PM
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All federal and provincial elections in Canada are paper ballots, hand counted. They don't take several days to count. I can only imagine they need to be more careful in Israel because of the importance of minor party votes.
Canada (like the US and the UK) uses the first-past-the-post system, which is quick to count because the choice a voter can express is very limited and each ballot contains relatively little information. Moreover some ballots will, in practice, have much greater bearing on the overall outcome than others and, if desired, counting procedures can prioritise the processing of these ballots, resulting in an even quicker answer to the question "which party has won?"

With at least some proportional representation systems voters can express much more sophisticated choices and each individual ballot contains much more information. Different items of information on the ballot may be relevant at different points in the process, so ballots may need to be examined more than once. And in general all ballots will have more nearly equal significance to the outcome, so there is less opportunity to prioritise the processing of the ballots that are more likely to determine the overall outcome.
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Old 09-18-2019, 12:51 AM
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Why are the results taking so long? When will they be announced?
Remember that in Israel, even after the official results are announced, it will take another 30 days before we know who won.


(In case you don't know, the process is as follows:
The president of the country is a minor, ceremonial office, except for one crucial function, which he will carry out this week: he officially meets with each party after the election and asks them to recommend one person who they wish to see as the next Prime Minister (i.e either Bibi, or Gantz).

A few days later, the president makes his decision, and officially declares that he will "impose the duty" of creating a government on Bibi, or on Gantz.
Bibi or Gantz than has 30 days to negotiate with all the other parties and try to convince them to join the new government, with him as the big boss.

Last April, for the first time in Israeli history, Bibi failed in those negotiations, and so new elections were called.)

Last edited by chappachula; 09-18-2019 at 12:54 AM.
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Old 09-18-2019, 01:57 AM
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Remember that in Israel, even after the official results are announced, it will take another 30 days before we know who won.


(In case you don't know, the process is as follows:
The president of the country is a minor, ceremonial office, except for one crucial function, which he will carry out this week: he officially meets with each party after the election and asks them to recommend one person who they wish to see as the next Prime Minister (i.e either Bibi, or Gantz).

A few days later, the president makes his decision, and officially declares that he will "impose the duty" of creating a government on Bibi, or on Gantz.
Bibi or Gantz than has 30 days to negotiate with all the other parties and try to convince them to join the new government, with him as the big boss.

Last April, for the first time in Israeli history, Bibi failed in those negotiations, and so new elections were called.)
Note that tradition demands that the President offer the job to the person receiving the largest number of recommendations, even though he has no actual legal obligation to do so. President Rivlin tends to do things by the book.

That said, being tasked with assembling the government does not mean you'll succeed in securing 61 votes, as Bibi found out last fall. The pundits are saying that in fact, it would be better for either Bibi or Gantz not to receive the recommendations first, because it would put either of them in a much better negotiating position after the other guy fails.

Let's just say, there's reason the term "Mexican Standoff" has entered the Israeli lexicon this morning.

Last edited by Alessan; 09-18-2019 at 01:59 AM.
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Old 09-18-2019, 04:34 AM
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Alessan, what are your feelings on Ayman Odeh? What is the broader Israeli opinion, in your understanding? Is there any chance of Blue and White forming an alliance with the Joint List? If not, why is this anathema?

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Old 09-18-2019, 09:21 AM
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Alessan, what are your feelings on Ayman Odeh? What is the broader Israeli opinion, in your understanding? Is there any chance of Blue and White forming an alliance with the Joint List? If not, why is this anathema?
The reasons exist, but they're moot at this time. B&W plus all the Left parties plus the Arabs don't have a majority. They need Lieberman. And while Lieberman is allied with the left on religious/secular issues, he and his party are hard right on security issues. It's hard to imagine Lieberman and the left in the same coalition, and virtually inconceivable that he could join with the Arab List.

What Lieberman wants (or at least claims to want) is a unity government with B&W and Likud. One problem here that the Likud won't join with anyone who won't support immunizing Bibi from criminal charges, which B&W say is a non-starter for them.
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Old 09-20-2019, 10:46 AM
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The big problem with Joint List is that you've got both secular, atheist Arabs who want what's best for Arabs living in Israel, and you've got Islamists who quite literally don't think Israel should exist, and everything in between. Even within the union, that's led to issues in the past - many in Odeh's party, Hadash, worried that this joint list party wouldn't have as firm a stance on, say, gender equality.

Long term, my biggest hope is that the religious right and Islamist parties both fade away, the secular Arabs can join with the secular Left, and together they can finally come up with a peaceful resolution to the whole shebang.

Right now, though, I think a centrist coalition led by Blue White, with Israel Beitanu and Likud, is the best way to move forward without Bibi (I hope Blue White sticks to their guns and demands he leaves) and without the religious parties.

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Old 09-25-2019, 12:05 PM
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Looks like Netanyahu will get to build a coalition after all. Or at least, try -- Israeli media is reporting that the president picked him to build a government, but we will see if he can. Blue White pledged that they won't join a government led by Netanyahu, and Israel Beitanu has said they won't joint with the religious right. If both of those pledges hold true (and we all know what politician pledges are worth), then I don't see how Netanyahu has a better shot success than he did last time.
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Old 09-25-2019, 12:23 PM
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A higher up in Blue White says, (my own translation here), "This negotiation [for the creation of a Center coalition with Blue White, Israel Beitanu, and Likud] is entirely Bibi's farce; as soon as he realized that we would not let him be prime minister, he moved on to the next election cycle. He's just trying to pass the blame on to us."
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Old 09-26-2019, 07:49 AM
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Assuming Bibi fails again to build a ruling majority - does Benny get a chance to try or another round of elections?
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Old 09-26-2019, 08:30 AM
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Assuming Bibi fails again to build a ruling majority - does Benny get a chance to try or another round of elections?
Bibi has 28 days to form a government; the President may extend the period by up to 14 days, but probably won't. After that, the President can offer the job to someone else - namely, to Gantz, as the person with the second-largest number of recommendations - who in turn has 28 days of his own (no extensions). After that, it gets weird: the President makes an open casting call to the Knesset, which means that anyone who can get 61 signatures gets the job. If no-one can do that in 21 days, new elections are called.

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Old 09-26-2019, 09:20 AM
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Thanks.
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Old 10-02-2019, 03:59 AM
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Unless Bibi and Gantz come to their senses and form some kind of unity government, I can see Israel going to yet another election. I'm not even sure I'll vote again. I don't like either one, and Bibi is facing possible criminal indictments in the very near future.
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Old 10-02-2019, 04:45 AM
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Unless Bibi and Gantz come to their senses and form some kind of unity government, I can see Israel going to yet another election. I'm not even sure I'll vote again. I don't like either one, and Bibi is facing possible criminal indictments in the very near future.
We'll see what happens when Rubin gives the mandate to Gantz and it's the Likud's turn to blink. Bibi may want another election, but I don't think his party does.
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Old 10-02-2019, 05:08 AM
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Plus, I want to see if any transcriptions of embarrassing calls between Bibi and Trump pop up. That would be awesome.
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Old 10-02-2019, 02:45 PM
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Plus, I want to see if any transcriptions of embarrassing calls between Bibi and Trump pop up. That would be awesome.
Oh my, YES. I'd drink a very large glass of arak in celebration.

May Eretz Yisrael have a sweet and largely Bibi-free 5780.
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Old 10-03-2019, 07:15 AM
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Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
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Old 10-03-2019, 07:30 AM
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Strange things are afoot at the Circle-K.
Care to elaborate (I'm assuming that's the knesset)?

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Old 10-07-2019, 12:58 PM
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Looks like Netanyahu will get to build a coalition after all. Or at least, try -- Israeli media is reporting that the president picked him to build a government, but we will see if he can. Blue White pledged that they won't join a government led by Netanyahu, and Israel Beitanu has said they won't joint with the religious right. If both of those pledges hold true (and we all know what politician pledges are worth), then I don't see how Netanyahu has a better shot success than he did last time.
The apartheid state of Israel's dancing and feckless footwork is a delight to hear of.
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Old 10-08-2019, 09:20 PM
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So from a few days back ...
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Lieberman emphasized that “if there is no breakthrough between the Likud and Blue and White by Yom Kippur [Wednesday, Oct. 9], Yisrael Beiteinu will make its own offer to both of the factions. At any rate, after Yom Kippur, we will enter any effort to form a government in high gear.”

He added that “even if a third election is held, the situation on the political map will not significantly change, and that is why we need to … leave personal considerations and egos aside.”
Yom Tov y'all. What sort of offer will he be making you think?
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Old 10-09-2019, 11:26 PM
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https://m.jpost.com/Breaking-News/Av...ernment-604117

So he’d have it be the three parties with no Arab or ultra religious parties. Rotate Bibi and Benny with Bibi first to step down when indicted.

Likely?
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Old 10-10-2019, 12:54 AM
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So he’d have it be the three parties with no Arab or ultra religious parties. Rotate Bibi and Benny with Bibi first to step down when indicted.
Likely?
This would form a stable government.
This would have the support of the majority of Israelis voters.
This is clearly what is best for the country.
This is the only logical solution.

Therefore, it simply will not happen.
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Old 10-10-2019, 01:48 AM
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Also, nobody trusts Bibi to actually step down.
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Old 11-21-2019, 10:37 PM
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In the continuing saga of Israel trying to form a government:
- Netanyahu tried, and failed, to get the votes to form a government.
- Gantz, leader of the Blue and White party got his shot. Wednesday he announced that he had failed just before the deadline.
- We are now in a 21 day window for anybody who can scrape up the votes to try and form a government. If that fails there will be another election in March.

To throw an extra wrinkle in the mix, Netanyahu was indicted for fraud, breach of trust, and accepting bribes today.

Last edited by DinoR; 11-21-2019 at 10:38 PM.
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Old 12-11-2019, 04:52 PM
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Round 3 - FIGHT!

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Old 12-11-2019, 08:56 PM
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The right-wing would have a better chance without Bibi. But he needs to win to keep out of jail and so is building a cult of personality.
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Old 12-12-2019, 03:50 AM
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The right-wing would have a better chance without Bibi. But he needs to win to keep out of jail and so is building a cult of personality.
Yes, obviously, but the right probably won't get rid of him. He's bolstered by an institutional culture of loyalty to the leader, no matter what. Consider, for instance, that in its 70 years of existence, the Likud has had exactly four party leaders, all of whom served until they resigned. And honestly, it's been working for them - Labour, in comparison, has had 13 party leaders in the same period of time, in which it has withered away from total domination to near-irrelevance. The Likud does not challenge its leaders, period.

And yeah, he definitely has a cult of personality, not dissimilar to that of his American counterpart ("triggering the libs" is a thing here too, unfortunately, albeit not in so many words). Bibi is basically Trump's self-aggrandizement mixed with Nixon's intelligence, paranoia and resentment, stuffed into JFK's composure and speaking ability. God help you if you ever elect a president like him.

Last edited by Alessan; 12-12-2019 at 03:52 AM.
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Old 12-12-2019, 01:51 PM
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I'm not sure that I'm going to vote this round. I'm terribly angry that we've gone thru 2 elections and have made no progress whatsoever. Not only that, I'm already getting those damned text messages about voting.
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Old 12-12-2019, 02:03 PM
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Consider, for instance, that in its 70 years of existence, the Likud has had exactly four party leaders, all of whom served until they resigned. And honestly, it's been working for them - Labour, in comparison, has had 13 party leaders in the same period of time, in which it has withered away from total domination to near-irrelevance.
I would guess that's backwards. After Begin (who had a very long tenure for other reasons, i.e. youth and stature as founder) the Likud hasn't had to turn over their leaders because they've been relatively successful. The Labor Party has been steadily declining over the years, and that decline itself would naturally cause more turnover in the leadership role.
  #39  
Old 12-12-2019, 02:34 PM
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I'm not sure that I'm going to vote this round. I'm terribly angry that we've gone thru 2 elections and have made no progress whatsoever. Not only that, I'm already getting those damned text messages about voting.
Who did you vote for last round, and where/why are you thinking of changing your vote? I'm genuinely curious.

Holding election round three seems to fall under the oft misattributed definition of insanity. I see no reason that that anyone would change their vote.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 12-12-2019 at 02:36 PM.
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Old 12-12-2019, 03:52 PM
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I would guess that's backwards. After Begin (who had a very long tenure for other reasons, i.e. youth and stature as founder) the Likud hasn't had to turn over their leaders because they've been relatively successful. The Labor Party has been steadily declining over the years, and that decline itself would naturally cause more turnover in the leadership role.
Maybe, but that doesn't change the fact that I've seen plenty of Likudniks - including senior party members - say, literally, "The Likud does not depose its leader. We're not Labour."

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I'm not sure that I'm going to vote this round. I'm terribly angry that we've gone thru 2 elections and have made no progress whatsoever. Not only that, I'm already getting those damned text messages about voting.
Who've you been getting? First two rounds, I mostly got from Labour leftward ( probably because of where I live), but this time I haven't gotten any yet. I don't think that what's left of the left has started revving its machinery yet.
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Old 12-12-2019, 03:53 PM
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Holding election round three seems to fall under the oft misattributed definition of insanity. I see no reason that that anyone would change their vote.

“But I don’t want to go among mad people,” Alice remarked.
“Oh, you can’t help that,” said the Cat: “we’re all mad here. I’m mad. You’re mad.”
“How do you know I’m mad?” said Alice.
“You must be,” said the Cat, “or you wouldn’t have come here.”
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Old 03-02-2020, 04:39 AM
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Once more down the rabbit hole.
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Old 03-02-2020, 03:46 PM
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Looks like the right has regained its footing.
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Old 03-09-2020, 02:42 PM
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Can anyone explain what happened, and what's going on right now? First it seemed like Netanyahu was going to win, and now it seems like he's in dire straits, at least from what google is telling me.
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Old 03-09-2020, 03:05 PM
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Can anyone explain what happened, and what's going on right now? First it seemed like Netanyahu was going to win, and now it seems like he's in dire straits, at least from what google is telling me.
Well, his party did win the most seats, retaking the lead from the Blue and White party. But his coalition only won 58 seats, not the 61 required to form a government. There's a sort of 'spoiler' party in the mix, Yisrael Beiteinu, which won seven seats in the Knesset which isn't playing ball with either side unless they form a coalition government. Netanyahu either has to find a way to entice YB into joining his government without Blue and White, which they say they won't do, or he has to convince one of the parts of the center-left alliance to defect, which is highly unlikely with Bibi at the helm of Likud.
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Old 03-19-2020, 11:46 AM
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Israel is now a de facto dictatorship.
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In a video statement, Yair Lapid, a senior figure in Blue and White, told Israeli citizens that they “no longer live in a democracy.”

“There is no judicial branch in Israel. There is no legislative branch in Israel. There is only an unelected government that is headed by a person who lost the election. You can call that by a lot of names. It isn’t a democracy,” he said in a recorded video.


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In recent days, Netanyahu and his surrogates have shut down the Israel’s court system just ahead of his trial on corruption charges, have begun using phone-surveillance technology on the public and adjourned parliament until next week.

Netanyahu has defended most of these moves as unpleasant but necessary steps to deal with the coronavirus pandemic. But opponents say he is more interested in staying in power as Netanyahu governs in a caretaker role after a third consecutive inconclusive election in under a year.
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Police rejected accusations that they were carrying out Netanyahu’s bidding, saying they were following Health Ministry orders meant to curb the spread of the virus. “No one is above the law or above public health orders released by the ministry of health,” it said.
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Presenting himself as the responsible adult steering the country through an unprecedented emergency, he has defended the tough steps, including the electronic surveillance, as measures he has reluctantly been forced to impose in order to save lives, while his opponents are focused on petty politics.
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The last thing I will do is harm democracy.
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But critics say that is exactly what he has done by allowing Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein, a member of his Likud party, to suspend parliamentary proceedings. Edelstein has cited technical reasons, but political opponents accuse him of stonewalling on behalf of the prime minister to prevent them from pushing forward with legislation that could bring Netanyahu’s time in office to an end.
Quote:
Netanyahu has used a series of executive orders and other tactics to push forward his agenda while preventing parliament from convening.

The phone-surveillance plan was approved by the Cabinet in the middle of the night, without the traditional parliamentary oversight that is customary for such decisions.

Likewise, the courts shutdown also was approved in the middle of the night by Netanyahu’s hand-picked justice minister, just a day before the prime minister’s criminal trial was to begin. The decree, citing the coronavirus, postponed the trial until May.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 03-19-2020 at 11:49 AM.
  #47  
Old 03-19-2020, 02:24 PM
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The irony should be profoundly troubling to every Israeli citizen, at the very least.

And if you don't think that Trump is taking notes...
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Old 03-25-2020, 03:14 PM
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This may complicate things for Netanyahu:
Quote:
Israel’s parliament speaker abruptly resigned Wednesday, dealing a blow to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and deepening the country’s political turmoil as the embattled Israeli leader tries to cling to power amid a fast-spreading outbreak of the coronavirus and a looming corruption trial.

The resignation of Knesset Speaker Yuli Edelstein clears the way for the opposition to move forward with efforts in parliament to topple Netanyahu. But by resigning, Edelstein, a member of Netanyahu’s Likud party, also defied a Supreme Court order to hold a vote for his successor, throwing down a new obstacle that could delay the opposition from proceeding with its agenda for several days.

The move drew an angry reaction from the opposition Blue and White Party, which now has the backing from a slim parliamentary majority.

“The Israeli parliament belongs to Israel’s citizens, and their elected representatives will follow the laws of the state of Israel and the rulings of its courts. No one is above the law,” Blue and White leader Benny Gantz tweeted.

Edelstein suspended parliamentary activities last week, citing procedural issues and restrictions on large gatherings due to the spread of the coronavirus. But opponents accused him of blocking the vote on his replacement to shield Netanyahu from legislation that would limit his lengthy rule. Netanyahu was recently indicted on various corruption charges and faces a criminal trial.

Earlier this week, the Supreme Court ordered Edelstein to hold a new vote by Wednesday, with the chief justice accusing him of “undermining the foundations of the democratic process.” While some members of Netanyahu’s Likud party urged him to defy the order, he responded that he would “not agree to an ultimatum” and resigned instead.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 03-25-2020 at 03:14 PM.
  #49  
Old 03-28-2020, 09:55 AM
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Netanyahu has now formed a government with Benny Gantz's party. Netanyahu will be the prime minister at first under the unity government, handing it over to Gantz in September 2021. Gantz's Blue and White alliance collapsed, with parties other than Gantz's Israel Resilience Party rejecting the coalition with Likud.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-...ite-collapses/

Quote:
Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz is set to partner Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a unity government, serving initially as foreign minister but then taking over from Netanyahu as prime minister in September 2021, according to a reported deal taking shape amid immense political drama in Israel on Thursday afternoon.

Gantz’s decision to join forces with Netanyahu immediately led to the collapse of Blue and White, with the party’s No. 2 Yair Lapid rejecting the move and apparently heading into opposition with others from his Yesh Atid component of Blue and White. “Gantz chose Netanyahu over Lapid,” Channel 12 reported succinctly.
  #50  
Old 03-28-2020, 10:25 AM
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Originally Posted by str8cashhomie View Post
Netanyahu has now formed a government with Benny Gantz's party. Netanyahu will be the prime minister at first under the unity government, handing it over to Gantz in September 2021. Gantz's Blue and White alliance collapsed, with parties other than Gantz's Israel Resilience Party rejecting the coalition with Likud.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/gantz-...ite-collapses/
Might this be a shrewd move by Gantz? Sept 2021 is not that far away and given Netanyahu's upcoming court date on corruption charges, Gantz may be counting on not even having to wait until 2021 to be PM.
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