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Old 01-13-2019, 04:26 PM
Jim B. Jim B. is offline
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The Kavanaugh Effect.

For the first time in, I don't know, 50 or 60 years at least, we have a clear ultra conservative majority on the US Supreme Court. 5-4, with no swing vote even.

My question: how does this affect the average American?

Not just abortion. But civil rights, if you're African American. What about if you're gay? What about civil liberties in general? Heck, what if you just want to buy contraception?

I couldn't be the first to wonder.

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Old 01-13-2019, 06:29 PM
Jackmannii Jackmannii is offline
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Yes, the OP is the first to wonder about this, and as a prize you will receive every album ever recorded, plus a bonus ice-crusher!

In answer to your question, the Stygian night of oppression is about to descend on the land, while moans and lamentations will arise.

More realistically, some established precedents (i.e. on abortion and college admission procedures) will likely be gnawed at from the edges. But I wouldn't expect wholesale changes in how civil rights-related laws are interpreted.
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Old 01-13-2019, 07:02 PM
Maestroh Maestroh is offline
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The reality is that despite all the fearmongering, it isn't going to make substantial difference. We're not going back to Jim Crow and Roe v Wade isn't going anywhere no matter how many times some idiot declares it the end of Western civilization online.
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Old 01-13-2019, 10:30 PM
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Trump's gotten his list of judges from the Heritage Foundation. No judge recommended by the Heritage Foundation would ever, under any circumstance, dream of overturning Roe v. Wade. Because if they did, then the Republican party could no longer promise to do it if they could, except those mean babykiller liberals keep stopping them, and that's the main thing that keeps Republicans getting elected, so they can get about the real business of screwing over the poor.

But that real business of screwing over the poor... Yeah, that's going to be a problem.
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Old 01-13-2019, 11:03 PM
ITR champion ITR champion is online now
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Originally Posted by Jim B. View Post
For the first time in, I don't know, 50 or 60 years at least, we have a clear ultra conservative majority on the US Supreme Court.
No, actually we do not.

Of course certain columnists and bloggers label everybody who is not a member of the Democratic part as "ultra conservative", but they are wrong to do so. There is no rational way to claim that Roberts or Kavanaugh are "ultra conservative". It might be possible to make such a claim about Thomas or Alito. Gorsuch is a conservative with a strong libertarian bent.

I would expect major changes in the court's stances on only a very small number of issues. The best thing that I would hope for soon is that the court will finally get around to issuing the obvious ruling that affirmative action is unconstitutional.
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Old 01-13-2019, 11:49 PM
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Originally Posted by ITR champion View Post
No, actually we do not.

Of course certain columnists and bloggers label everybody who is not a member of the Democratic part as "ultra conservative", but they are wrong to do so. There is no rational way to claim that Roberts or Kavanaugh are "ultra conservative". It might be possible to make such a claim about Thomas or Alito. Gorsuch is a conservative with a strong libertarian bent.

I would expect major changes in the court's stances on only a very small number of issues. The best thing that I would hope for soon is that the court will finally get around to issuing the obvious ruling that affirmative action is unconstitutional.
Yes, they aren't fairly called "ultra conservatives," but they are definitely conservative. Being pro-life is a conservative position, and Roe v. Wade was decided in a way that contradicts current conservative jurisprudence.

And the entire point of the Heritage List was to get Roe v. Wade overturned. That is why a good portion of Trump voters voted for him. It's literally been their plan forever: that's why there are once again abortion cases coming up the pike.

It's not a done deal, of course, as judges don't always vote the way the people who install them expect. But make no mistake--the reason for putting them on the court was Roe v. Wade.

You don't even hear Republicans whining about SSM anymore. But they still go on about abortion. That's what they care about.

And they can hold onto such voters simply by scaremongering that Dems will allow abortion again, same as they make up a new gun control issue to be worried about all the time.

Any reason you can come up with to be sure they won't overturn Roe v. Wade is just whistling in the dark.
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Old 01-14-2019, 12:04 AM
Wesley Clark Wesley Clark is offline
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Health care could be rolled back.

Voting rights rolled back.

Labor rights rolled back.

Minority rights rolled back.

I'm not sure how far though.
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Old 01-14-2019, 02:46 PM
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Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
.
But that real business of screwing over the poor... Yeah, that's going to be a problem.
I think on Roe v. Wade, they are probably going to let it die a death by a thousand cuts in which abortion is still officially legal in all 50 states, but not practically possible in 30 of them.

But the real game changer is going to be corporate law, with a near elimination of worker and consumer rights, and on the power of the EPA and SEC to regulate, the robber barons will party like it's 1899.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 01-14-2019 at 02:47 PM.
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Old 01-14-2019, 03:55 PM
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If you consider how often decisions come down to a 5-4 vote, it becomes clear that the extremists do not make the decisions on SCOTUS. The decisions are made by the moderates on the bench. They will consider the case, and figure out who needs to vote which way to achieve the 5-4 vote. The addition of Kavanaugh only means that one of the moderates will have to vote liberal a bit more frequently.
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:50 PM
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Quote:
Quoth BigT:

And the entire point of the Heritage List was to get Roe v. Wade overturned. That is why a good portion of Trump voters voted for him.
You just yourself repeated the reason why they won't: Because promising to do so gets Republicans elected. If they actually did it, they wouldn't have anything left to promise any more, and so Republicans would stop getting elected. Which would be fine, if the goal of the Heritage Institute were to abolish abortion. But it's not. Their goal is to increase income inequality, and Republican politicians are a means to that end.
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Old 01-14-2019, 04:56 PM
Procrustus Procrustus is online now
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Originally Posted by Wesley Clark View Post
Health care could be rolled back.

Voting rights rolled back.

Labor rights rolled back.

Minority rights rolled back.

I'm not sure how far though.
Yep, labor, consumers, environmental protections, etc. Basically, whatever big business wants will be a little easier. Force arbitration, limits on lawsuits, and more cases dismissed by judges without ever getting to bring your evidence to a jury (aka summary judgment). Most of it will be under the radar unless you happen to be the injured party.
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Old 01-14-2019, 06:21 PM
Velocity Velocity is offline
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I don't think the current 5-4 reflects a "solidly" conservative majority. Roberts has become the new Kennedy, and as Chief Justice it seems he wants to be unpredictable because it undermines the legitimacy of SCOTUS for there to be numerous 5 red 4 blue outcomes. Aside from voting for ACA, he has been known to deliberately go "blue" from time to time to keep people on their toes.
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Old 01-14-2019, 10:45 PM
Superdude Superdude is offline
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Originally Posted by Maestroh View Post
The reality is that despite all the fearmongering, it isn't going to make substantial difference. We're not going back to Jim Crow and Roe v Wade isn't going anywhere no matter how many times some idiot declares it the end of Western civilization online.
It's worth noting that Kentucky certainly wants to be at the forefront of a Roe vs Wade repeal. They're positively giddy at the notion, and a big part are Gorsuch and Kavanaugh.
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Old 01-15-2019, 12:24 AM
Dacien Dacien is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
Trump's gotten his list of judges from the Heritage Foundation. No judge recommended by the Heritage Foundation would ever, under any circumstance, dream of overturning Roe v. Wade. Because if they did, then the Republican party could no longer promise to do it if they could, except those mean babykiller liberals keep stopping them, and that's the main thing that keeps Republicans getting elected, so they can get about the real business of screwing over the poor.

But that real business of screwing over the poor... Yeah, that's going to be a problem.
Ignoring the unfair characterization of the GOP as out to screw over the poor, there was an insightful remark on a recent conservative podcast recently I thought was relevant. Which was, the GOP has been so successful at cutting taxes, they can no longer use it as a promise to get elected, as they did in decades past. The tax burden for an average middle class family is quite bearable, and as such, provides much less leverage than it once did.

And I do agree that the fear about overturning Roe V. Wade is much ado about nothing. Ignoring the fact that Kavanaugh was a bit of a question mark on the issue, the cultural tumult that it would produce would reverberate so strongly that I don't think anybody in power wants to be around if such a thing ever happened.

Last edited by Dacien; 01-15-2019 at 12:25 AM.
  #15  
Old 01-15-2019, 10:11 AM
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The tax burden on the average middle class family has always been quite bearable. The Republicans have never made much difference there, nor have they ever intended to.
  #16  
Old 01-15-2019, 10:52 AM
Dacien Dacien is offline
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The average middle class federal income tax rate has fallen over the past few decades from 11.5% to about 3.5%, in large part thanks to ERTA and the Bush tax cuts. There's only so low they can go.

Last edited by Dacien; 01-15-2019 at 10:53 AM.
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