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Old 04-10-2019, 05:41 PM
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Jared's Peace Plan and the 2020 election


After hearing of Netanyahu's apparent success in Israel's election yesterday, I despaired for Israel. And, today, I despair more for the US.

This very insightful editorial demonstrated to me, taught me really, the parallels between Bibi and Trump in a way I hadn't really appreciated before. Basically, that Netanyahu, despite the cloud of criminality drifting about him, and despite the contrast of his essential brutality and intolerance to the liberal nature of vast segments of Israel's population, had managed to exploit the structured elements of Israel's society (i.e. various well-defined interest groups) in such a way as to make his election victory likely nonetheless. He used Israeli partisanship, whether defined and divided by religious belief, ethnicity, commitment to militarism, or racist conviction, to cobble together support of enough voting blocs to win (population voting blocs and Knesset voting blocs). Trump could do much the same, especially after Jared declares he has solved the most vexing problem in international relations, and even more especially if the plan is released, say, three months before the election.

One of the things the Sociopath as President could then include in his attempts to carry-on despite the opprobrium enveloping him, is trumpet the 'GREAT PEACE DEAL' that Jared "has just released. It it is truly a great plan, absolutely wonderful. I have been getting calls, lots of call, all day, from around the world. From other presidents, and prime ministers, and kings, and all the GREAT leaders of the world. For the first time we are safer than ever . . . and we will be SO much safer now from terrorism . . . The world thanks AMERICA. The WORLD LOVES AMERICA NOW - WE HAVE WON!"

Will Jared's plan get international support from world leaders? Out of fealty to Trump himself or, out of the belief that having Trump in power is a good role model for what is their own form of illiberal democracy, I think so. You can be sure Trump will be drumming up support, and I believe he'll get lots of it. And he'll use it to blow his own horn louder and longer beckoning the American faithful.
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Old 04-10-2019, 06:11 PM
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What makes you think that Kushner will be able to cobble anything together that can be labeled a success in even the short term?

Netanyahu's political position doesn't even allow much room for a deal. He can't really agree to give up land for an independent Palestine, offer increased Palestinian autonomy, or pull back illegal settlements without his bloc fracturing.

Israel's neighbors seem to be okay with the status quo and focusing their relationship on other issues. It's unlikely they would support a full on annexation of Palestinian controlled territories given the internal outrage that would almost certainly cause them issues.

I'm just not seeing an area of possible compromise in the near future.
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Old 04-10-2019, 06:27 PM
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Originally Posted by DinoR View Post
What makes you think that Kushner will be able to cobble anything together that can be labeled a success in even the short term?

Netanyahu's political position doesn't even allow much room for a deal. He can't really agree to give up land for an independent Palestine, offer increased Palestinian autonomy, or pull back illegal settlements without his bloc fracturing.

Israel's neighbors seem to be okay with the status quo and focusing their relationship on other issues. It's unlikely they would support a full on annexation of Palestinian controlled territories given the internal outrage that would almost certainly cause them issues.

I'm just not seeing an area of possible compromise in the near future.
With Iran hobbled (perhaps) beforehand, and Saudi Arabia not giving a shit about the Palestinians, Bibi need not do anything. An extended, relatively quiet status quo would suit him just fine. If the Palestinians become increasingly irrelevant, why would Netanyahu care? They'll remain ineffective and powerless. And besides, the truth is not the truth. Trump will simply declare there is peace. A great peace.
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Old 04-10-2019, 06:32 PM
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Kushner will say that he's come up with his plan, Trump will say that he's seen it and it's brilliant and will usher in a golden age, nobody else will ever see it at all, Trump's supporters will take his word on how great it is, and the Middle East will continue to be violent.
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Old 04-10-2019, 07:14 PM
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Originally Posted by KarlGauss View Post
With Iran hobbled (perhaps) beforehand,
That's a pretty big assumption short of some pretty dramatic action that comes with it's own problems.

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and Saudi Arabia not giving a shit about the Palestinians,
That's been baked into the status quo for a while now.

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Bibi need not do anything. An extended, relatively quiet status quo would suit him just fine. If the Palestinians become increasingly irrelevant, why would Netanyahu care?
The status quo isn't all that quiet or peaceful. The Palestinians get a vote in how peaceful the situation remains. Netanyahu can try to ignore the pressures that push him to respond with more force but those pressures are real. He can also try to ignore the elements in his power bloc that demand a more aggressive approach than has been the status quo but those pressures on him are real too. They don't become increasingly irrelevant without some real change to the situation IMO.

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They'll remain ineffective and powerless. And besides, the truth is not the truth. Trump will simply declare there is peace. A great peace.
Sure he could do that anyday regardless of whether Kushner does anything. Having an actual peace place is irrelevant to just making a bald faced assertion. So who buys that isn't already likely to both turnout and vote for him already?

I'm just not seeing a credible chance of changing the situation in the near term. Natanyahu's election basically slammed that door shut. I'm also having trouble seeing unsubstantiated claims about Israel-Palestinian peace making a significant change in turnout or voting come next November.

Last edited by DinoR; 04-10-2019 at 07:16 PM.
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Old 04-11-2019, 10:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
Kushner will say that he's come up with his plan, Trump will say that he's seen it and it's brilliant and will usher in a golden age, nobody else will ever see it at all, Trump's supporters will take his word on how great it is, and the Middle East will continue to be violent.
They are saying Kushner's peace plan is almost as good as Trump's health plan!
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Old 04-11-2019, 10:39 AM
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Does anyone have a sense of how much the ever elusive "peace in the middle east" moves the needle with the average US voters? Trump's base is Trump's base, they won't care. Those who distrust Trump will just see this as more vapor. So, where is the margin on this?
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Old 04-11-2019, 11:32 AM
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Does anyone have a sense of how much the ever elusive "peace in the middle east" moves the needle with the average US voters? Trump's base is Trump's base, they won't care. Those who distrust Trump will just see this as more vapor. So, where is the margin on this?
He could get a pro-Israel boost in places like Florida and Pennsylvania, which could help him on the margins in tight races. A deeper concern for democrats is that they cannot collectively be viewed as the anti-Israel party. If Bibi Netanyahu decides to take over the West Bank, which he has signaled he might, then that is going to be a very polarizing political issue with some serious ripple effects. As a party that believes in international law and the rights of Palestinians, Democrats should condemn such a move, but such condemnation will be spun into casting Democrats as the antisemitic and anti-Israeli party. Netanyahu won a race not by building broad coalitions but by being brutally polarizing, which is how strongmen and authoritarian thugs win elections. This is also the exact same playbook that Donald Trump will use. It's the same won that other authoritarians (Orban, Erdogan, Duterte, Bolsonaro, Milosevic etc) have used effectively. People like Trump win by shocking and angering people to the point where there are clear fault lines.

Last edited by asahi; 04-11-2019 at 11:33 AM.
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Old 04-11-2019, 11:45 AM
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is there any daylight between wunderkid Jared and Bibi? The Mideast policy of the administration appears to be "What Bibi wants, Bibi gets". This may win over the religious right, who are convinced that Israel is infallible but it destroys the US reputation as an honest broker. Those who vote Israeli security as their single issue are a lost cause for Democrats, the adoration of Bibi likely turns off more people than it turns on.
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Old 04-11-2019, 04:00 PM
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BobLibDem:

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but it destroys the US reputation as an honest broker
The US never really had a reputation (in the Arab world) as an honest broker. The only asset the US has in this process is its ability to bring Israel to the table at all.
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Old 04-11-2019, 07:08 PM
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Remember, Bibi campaigned that if he won the election, he would annex all settlements in the West Bank as part of Israel proper. Trump is pretty much guaranteed to recognize the annexation.
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Old 04-12-2019, 06:32 AM
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Remember, Bibi campaigned that if he won the election, he would annex all settlements in the West Bank as part of Israel proper. Trump is pretty much guaranteed to recognize the annexation.
In the short term, annexation might make Bibi a political legend. In the longer term, it could be reignite regional tensions in a big way.
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