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  #51  
Old 04-23-2019, 10:24 AM
HurricaneDitka is offline
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Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
... Clinton won every county that borders on Mexico. ...
This is false. For example, in Arizona, Trump won both Yuma and Cochise County.
  #52  
Old 04-23-2019, 11:59 AM
The wind of my soul is offline
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Originally Posted by asahi View Post
Voters may say "Yeah, Trump is a douchebag - can't stand the guy myself. But I'm getting a steady paycheck and pay increases, and that wasn't happening a few years ago. I don't wanna just reverse everything because Trump's a d-bag."
Agreed. We're too far from the election to make decent predictions, but if the economy come election time is similar to what it is now, I think Trump will win.
  #53  
Old 04-23-2019, 01:41 PM
Red Wiggler is offline
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Oh nuts, my bad. I thought SS was referring to Civil War border states. Still- California and New Mexico are blue and will stay that way, Texas is red and will stay that way. The only state that borders Mexico that is in play is Arizona.
I think we're still 2-3 presidential cycles out but the phenomenal growth of the state's cities coupled with a growing latino share of the electorate turns Texas blue. I think 2020 is a bridge too far, however.
  #54  
Old 04-23-2019, 02:04 PM
Thing Fish is offline
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Originally Posted by asahi View Post
The worst kind of contested election for Dems would be a centrist candidate "stealing" an election from a more hardline progressive. Think Beto O'Rourke or Joe Biden "stealing" an election from Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. The more ardent progressives wouldn't accept the outcome.
I'm not sure that it would be any better party unity-wise if it were Sanders being perceived as having "stolen" the election from Biden. But again, a very close election isn't necessarily the same as an election whose integrity is in question.
  #55  
Old 04-23-2019, 02:11 PM
That Don Guy is offline
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Originally Posted by dtilque View Post
What happens if no one gets over 15%? Are the delegates then uncommitted? How about if only one gets over that level? Do they get them all? These are not hypothetical questions. It's quite possible either or both will happen.
I assume this is limited to the Democrats, since the Republican primary rules can vary wildly from one state to the next.

If only one candidate gets 15% at a particular level (Congressional district or statewide), that candidate gets all of the delegates at that level. If none do, then the delegates go to the candidates that got at least half as many votes as the winner did at that level. (Some states claim to use the old "within 10% of the winner" rule, but the Call for the Convention implies that they all have to use the "at least half of the winner" rule in 2020.) Keep in mind that, except in states that have only one Representative, about 2/3 of the delegates are at Congressional district level.
  #56  
Old 04-23-2019, 02:46 PM
aruvqan is offline
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Originally Posted by Hari Seldon View Post
The Republicans realize they can win if only they can keep enough Democrats from voting. And they are working very hard on that. Throw out registrations, restrict weekend voting, close polling stations, you name it. A friend of mine lived in Ohio in 2000 and they took many voting booths out of Cleveland to relocate in the sticks. Some Clevelanders waiting four hours to vote. Many gave up. Turning Ohio would have cost Bush the election.
i have friends planning on going out to pick up people and take them to polling stations, calling/visiting to make sure people are registered and taking them to get reregistered if they mysteriously got struck from the rolls ... stuff like that.
  #57  
Old 04-23-2019, 02:51 PM
Ludovic is offline
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Originally Posted by aruvqan View Post
i have friends planning on going out to pick up people and take them to polling stations, calling/visiting to make sure people are registered and taking them to get reregistered if they mysteriously got struck from the rolls ... stuff like that.
That's assuming that sort of thing is legal once the election rolls around. Not even kidding.
  #58  
Old 04-23-2019, 04:32 PM
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Yeah, there's a bill up for a vote in Texas that would make it illegal to carpool to the polls.
  #59  
Old 04-23-2019, 05:18 PM
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I'm not sure that it would be any better party unity-wise if it were Sanders being perceived as having "stolen" the election from Biden. But again, a very close election isn't necessarily the same as an election whose integrity is in question.
Agreed - Sanders could "steal" the election from Sanders. And some old dog Democrats may refuse to accept the progressive anti-establishment turn of the party.
  #60  
Old 04-23-2019, 06:10 PM
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I suspect that the Supreme Court is going to allow the citizenship question on the census, allowing the GOP fro preventing the fair distribution of House seats, couple with Trump’s re-election giving him at least one more seat to fill, this is about it folks.
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