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  #1101  
Old 05-14-2019, 01:50 PM
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Yes, the redneck steelworkers of Pennsylvania might be far too misogynistic to turn out for a woman, especially "Pocahontas." But if Liz can get the rednecks' wives to vote for her, she may still flip the Keystone State.
IIRC, there was similar thinking in 1984 right up to election day; "Sure, the polls show that a lot of women say they're voting for Reagan, but a lot of those are wives standing right next to their husbands when they say it, and when they step into the voting booth and see the name Geraldine Ferraro next to Walter Mondale, well, that's why it's a secret ballot."
  #1102  
Old 05-14-2019, 02:16 PM
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Kaine was pretty much a non-entity in 2016 - I bet a lot of people have already forgotten he was Clinton's running mate. Duckworth isn't ready yet, Cuomo has baggage, Crist isn't well-liked...in fact that whole list is less a "Who's Who" and more a "Who?".
VPs don't have to be well known. THey have to be reassuring. A splashy pick would be a bad idea if the nominee is old. There are no young Democrats who are ready to be President due to the devastation the party experienced over the last 8 years.
  #1103  
Old 05-14-2019, 02:19 PM
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There are no young Democrats who are ready to be President due to the devastation the party experienced over the last 8 years.
That's ridiculous, at least depending on your definition of "young". There are plenty of Democrats in office between 40 and 60 who are as ready to be president as most president-elects have been.
  #1104  
Old 05-14-2019, 02:21 PM
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There are no young Democrats who are ready to be President due to the devastation the party experienced over the last 8 years.
Fortunately, our Constitution has age qualifications for the office, so no young Democrats are running.
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Old 05-14-2019, 02:26 PM
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There are no young Democrats who are ready to be President
Compared to Trump? You really wanna go there?
  #1106  
Old 05-14-2019, 02:48 PM
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Geraldine Ferraro was a nobody, running in the who-cares Veep slot against a popular President.
Elizabeth Warren is the top progressive Senator, doing well in the campaign (set aside two aging male dodderers) and is running against a monster.

No, I'd be severely disappointed in the American electorate if they chose Trump over Warren.
  #1107  
Old 05-14-2019, 02:53 PM
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VPs don't have to be well known. THey have to be reassuring. A splashy pick would be a bad idea if the nominee is old. There are no young Democrats who are ready to be President due to the devastation the party experienced over the last 8 years.
Well, since you have to be 35 to be President, there are no young candidates in any party.
  #1108  
Old 05-14-2019, 03:00 PM
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No, I'd be severely disappointed in the American electorate if they chose Trump over Warren.
Or Trump over anyone. I really will lose all hope if Trump is reelected no matter who gets the Democratic nomination.
  #1109  
Old 05-14-2019, 04:22 PM
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Any of the candidates can defeat Trump. Even Clinton could have done it.

But possibility is not probability, and probability is not certainty. Anyone can do it, but who has the best chance?
  #1110  
Old 05-14-2019, 04:29 PM
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Geraldine Ferraro was a nobody, running in the who-cares Veep slot against a popular President.
Elizabeth Warren is the top progressive Senator, doing well in the campaign (set aside two aging male dodderers) and is running against a monster.

No, I'd be severely disappointed in the American electorate if they chose Trump over Warren.
I've been rolling around a Biden-Warren ticket. She's no spring chicken, although she's almost a decade younger than Joe. And she doesn't bring racial or geographic diversity to the ticket, but this combo is somewhat appealing to me and may be becoming more appealing the more I see things shake out.
  #1111  
Old 05-14-2019, 04:39 PM
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Warren is terribly weak. Even Massachusetts voters don’t want her as president.


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Compared to Trump? You really wanna go there?

For the umpteenth time: This. Is. Not. The. Metric.
  #1112  
Old 05-14-2019, 04:49 PM
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I've been rolling around a Biden-Warren ticket. She's no spring chicken, although she's almost a decade younger than Joe. And she doesn't bring racial or geographic diversity to the ticket, but this combo is somewhat appealing to me and may be becoming more appealing the more I see things shake out.
I like this. Since both Trump and Biden will be of actuarial age, Pundits should stress the importance of debates between the Vice Pres. candidates. Let's have lots of them, by proxy if Pence is too cowardly to opt in. I expect Warren to kill Pence in any debate.
  #1113  
Old 05-14-2019, 05:12 PM
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The reason that it appeals to me is that they can both speak to blue collars, but Biden's strength is that he can fire up people's emotions. Warren's strength balances that as she's a policy wonk who can deliver on the ideas.

I could see Biden being the ticket's bulldog that does a lot of the attacks on Trump and fills the stadiums and just does Joe, while Warren does the retail side of campaigning and delivers the liberal/worker-friendly policy details. Biden brings the heart, Warren brings the brains.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 05-14-2019 at 05:13 PM.
  #1114  
Old 05-14-2019, 06:38 PM
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I have no idea where you are getting this idea that she is strong with voters. She managed to win a primary seven years ago, and then has underperformed ever since, but she still wins comfortably because MA is so overwhelmingly blue. (Problem is, the U.S. as a whole is not.)

https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/04...chusetts-poll/

Quote:
U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren ranks just third among presidential hopefuls in a new poll of Massachusetts Democratic primary voters.

An Emerson College poll released Sunday has Vermont U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders leading with 26 percent, followed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 23 percent. Warren is next at 14 percent, followed by South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 11 percent, and no one else drawing double digits.

“This is a concern for Warren who at this time does not have a firewall in her home state, and her rival Sanders has a strong base in the Bay State,” said Emerson polling chief Spencer Kimball.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...worth-in-2018/
Quote:
Before an election, we really only know what partisan lean and elasticity look like,4 although we can guess at what the popular vote might be thanks to the the generic congressional ballot polling average. After an election, we know the popular vote and the election result, so we can roughly calculate what the net incumbency advantage might have been.[...]
For example, Democrats won the national popular vote by 8.3 percentage points,5 but Republican Rep. Chris Collins of the New York 27th District won his election by 0.6 points in a district with a partisan lean of R+22.9 and an elasticity score of 1.10. That means Collins performed about 13.2 points worse than we would have expected based on partisanship and the popular vote alone — a net incumbency disadvantage.6 Given that Collins was indicted on insider trading charges earlier this year and Republicans initially tried to replace him on the ballot, that dramatic negative number makes sense.
We did these calculations for every contested Senate and House election with an incumbent in 2018.7 In the House, net incumbency advantage ranged from +28.4 points for Democratic Rep. Dan Lipinski (who ran against a Nazi sympathizer) to -13.2 points for Collins. In the Senate, it spanned +25.2 points (for Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin in West Virginia) to -14.6 points (for Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts, a potential red flag for her rumored 2020 presidential campaign).

So adjusting for partisan lean, Warren did the worst out of all the hundreds of senators and representatives who ran. Worse even than an indicted Republican congressman who the GOP tried to replace on the ballot. Dead fucking last. And you want to nominate THAT albatross for president?!? Please, no. Just...no.
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  #1115  
Old 05-14-2019, 06:44 PM
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I cosign Slacker's post above.
  #1116  
Old 05-14-2019, 06:48 PM
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I also don't think she'd do well in a debate against Mike Pence. Pence is a brick wall, ice-cold, he's very practiced at appearing calm and collected, and he is far smarter than people give him credit for. Every video I have watched of Warren makes me think she would be easily rattled in a debate and that she would not sound authoritative. Yeah yeah, I know, people are going to say I'm being sexist. But I don't feel this way about Kamala Harris.
  #1117  
Old 05-14-2019, 06:52 PM
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Her voice is grating. And similarly to Lamoral's preemptive defense against a potential accusation of sexism, I don't have the same reaction to the voices of Harris or Klobuchar, but I do also feel that way about Sanders's voice. And I supported Hillary in the primaries in 2016.
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Last edited by SlackerInc; 05-14-2019 at 06:54 PM.
  #1118  
Old 05-14-2019, 07:02 PM
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I have no idea where you are getting this idea that she is strong with voters. She managed to win a primary seven years ago, and then has underperformed ever since, but she still wins comfortably because MA is so overwhelmingly blue. (Problem is, the U.S. as a whole is not.)

https://www.bostonherald.com/2019/04...chusetts-poll/




https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...worth-in-2018/



So adjusting for partisan lean, Warren did the worst out of all the hundreds of senators and representatives who ran. Worse even than an indicted Republican congressman who the GOP tried to replace on the ballot. Dead fucking last. And you want to nominate THAT albatross for president?!? Please, no. Just...no.

She's not running for president of Massachusetts, and we don't need to pick up Massachusetts to win the presidency, so frankly I don't really care how she polls there right now. If she were on the presidential ticket, people in MA will vote for her regardless.

I'm not saying she's the perfect candidate, and I definitely don't think she's top-of-the-ticket material, but she's been climbing in national polls, she recently campaigned in the heart of Trump country in WV and had Trump supporters nodding along with her, and if Sanders has peaked, she has the potential to pick up the progressive lane.

Good grief people, we haven't even had our first debate, and yet people are able to definitively say a top five candidate is dead in the water as a running mate already? Like I said, I don't know how it will play out, but she's not as toxic as some of you think, especially if she's not taking all the lightning at the top of the ticket.

What I'm looking for is someone who can deliver a blue-collar economic message to people in the Industrial Midwest, and I'm not convinced she can't. Especially if Biden is at the top of the ticket filling the stadiums and driving the emotional message.
  #1119  
Old 05-14-2019, 07:16 PM
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Elizabeth Warren just turned down a Fox News town hall.

Bernie Sanders just had a town hall on Fox News that turned out in his favor.

From her twitter on why she did it:

Quote:
Here’s one place we can fight back: I won’t ask millions of Democratic primary voters to tune into an outlet that profits from racism and hate in order to see our candidates—especially when Fox will make even more money adding our valuable audience to their ratings numbers.

Good move or bad move?
  #1120  
Old 05-14-2019, 07:19 PM
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Elizabeth Warren just turned down a Fox News town hall.

Bernie Sanders just had a town hall on Fox News that turned out in his favor.

From her twitter on why she did it:

Good move or bad move?
There's no law against having a picnic at the sewage-treatment plant. Doesn't mean it's a good idea.
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  #1121  
Old 05-14-2019, 08:00 PM
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Comedian Ben Glieb enters the race
  #1122  
Old 05-14-2019, 08:44 PM
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Yeah, if I could magic-wand a candidate into the White House, Warren would be a strong contender for me... but I have to admit that her numbers are terrible. And I'd be about as happy with Sanders in the White House, and he's looking a lot stronger than she is.
  #1123  
Old 05-14-2019, 11:53 PM
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And that's why I'm not thinking about her as the presidential nominee. As I ponder the idea of a Biden-Warren ticket, I think her passionate "lunch bucket" policy focus would play well in the Industrial Midwest as Biden's running mate.

She's a known policy wonk who talks a LOT about things that matter to blue collar families. Here's a speech from last month that is almost entirely talking about 1)Her lower-middle-class roots and 2)Fighting for working families. There's also the rumor that Joe wanted her as his running mate, were he to have run in 2016, so he even recognizes her balancing strengths.

And at the end of the day, people aren't voting for or against the running mate (or her voice or quirky affectations or even her popularity in the primary), but the running mate does show voters a little bit more about the nominee's priorities and values. I don't think Industrial Midwestern voters would be ready to vote her into the presidency, but damn, I think her wonkishness on behalf of working families would (potentially) be a nice complement to Joe Biden.

Biden's experienced, folksy, passionate, emotional, charming, decent, moral, well-known, respected, moderate. Warren's extremely smart, policy-focused, has fought for the middle class for years, and she's as progressive as Bernie. I'm beginning to think that this might be a rock-solid ticket. And I say this begrudgingly because I really, really wanted this to be the election that ushered Generation X into the White House, as well as a Latino/a.

I don't think Warren's top-of-the-ticket material, but I think this is the week I've begun to be sold on her as a running mate.

Last edited by Happy Lendervedder; 05-14-2019 at 11:54 PM.
  #1124  
Old 05-15-2019, 01:41 AM
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This is politics. And in politics, it's not "smartest, most insightful policy wonk wins". That would be lovely, but it's a pipe dream.

In real life, hardknuckle politics, if a nice man like Nate Silver who is very smart makes you a data-driven list like that, you don't put the person in dead last of the entire House and Senate on your national ticket. That's an ironclad rule. Hard and fast. And you should really question why you are doing it if it's someone anywhere in the bottom half, especially the bottom quarter or decile.

Think about it. It means, as a Democrat, that you have shown an impressive ability to convince Democratic leaners to lean back the other way and vote Republican, even while voting for a Dem in other races. Impressive. But not desirable on a national ticket in a divided country with structural advantages to the GOP.
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  #1125  
Old 05-15-2019, 03:31 AM
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Based on the responses, it seems my hope that Warren was electable derived from intoxication and wishful thinking. Would she also drag down the ticket even as Veep running-mate?

But I don't think Bernie Sanders has a chance either — did you see the irrational contempt for just the word "socialism" in a recent GD thread? Restructure SocSec and get asked if you want to move to North Korea?? That's what Sanders would be up against.

So we're stuck with Likable Joe? Under-qualified in his prime, he's visibly past his prime now. Smart money is on the GOP to keep the White House for Four More Years. Sigh.

Last edited by septimus; 05-15-2019 at 03:32 AM.
  #1126  
Old 05-15-2019, 12:00 PM
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Recent CNN poll (the only general election poll in the last couple month by a pollster that 538 grades "A"):

Beto beats Trump by 10 points!
Biden and Sanders each by 6...
Harris by 4...
Mayor Pete by 3...
Warren LOSES by 1.

This poll looks a lot better for Beto and (relatively) worse for Biden than most others, but the general pattern is pretty consistent.
  #1127  
Old 05-15-2019, 12:45 PM
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Recent CNN poll (the only general election poll in the last couple month by a pollster that 538 grades "A"):

Beto beats Trump by 10 points!
Biden and Sanders each by 6...
Harris by 4...
Mayor Pete by 3...
Warren LOSES by 1.

This poll looks a lot better for Beto and (relatively) worse for Biden than most others, but the general pattern is pretty consistent.
Yup. Only white guys need apply.

But seriously, whatever grade 538 gives them, a poll that puts Beto at the head of the pack gets a from me.

Last edited by CarnalK; 05-15-2019 at 12:46 PM.
  #1128  
Old 05-15-2019, 01:40 PM
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Yup. Only white guys need apply.

But seriously, whatever grade 538 gives them, a poll that puts Beto at the head of the pack gets a from me.
Harris is neither white nor a guy.
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Old 05-15-2019, 02:48 PM
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Recent CNN poll (the only general election poll in the last couple month by a pollster that 538 grades "A"):
Could I get a link to this poll? I tried looking. I got nothin'.

I also looked for 538 pollster ratings. The only thing I found is this old rating list updated May 2018 that has CNN listed as a B+ rating. Perhaps you have a newer version?
  #1130  
Old 05-15-2019, 02:57 PM
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Here is their constantly updated database of polls. Scroll down to May 2. From there you can follow a link to the poll's raw data.

I see that just in the last few hours they have added another A-graded poll of Pennsylvania in which Beto is the only candidate losing to Trump!

Last edited by Thing Fish; 05-15-2019 at 02:58 PM.
  #1131  
Old 05-15-2019, 03:20 PM
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Here is their constantly updated database of polls. Scroll down to May 2. From there you can follow a link to the poll's raw data.

I see that just in the last few hours they have added another A-graded poll of Pennsylvania in which Beto is the only candidate losing to Trump!
Thanks! Yup. Was just going to ask you about that Quinnipiac poll. From headlines I've been reading, O'Rourke has been sliding down a lot in the last couple weeks.

This is the last part of a sentence from a quote in an article in New Hampshire about Yang that I left off because it wasn't about Yang.

Quote:
While Yang is just starting to capture some lightning in a bottle, O’Rourke’s grappling with no longer being the star in a record-setting field of Democratic contenders that’s topped 20 candidates.

O’Rourke soared in the polls and posted eye-popping fundraising figures as he basked in generous media attention and large crowds on the campaign trail in the first couple of weeks after he declared his candidacy.

But the buzz soon ended and poll numbers edged downward.
Also, is that the CNN poll that is being hotly contested by the progressives and Nate Silver?
  #1132  
Old 05-15-2019, 05:38 PM
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Yup. Only white guys need apply.

But seriously, whatever grade 538 gives them, a poll that puts Beto at the head of the pack gets a from me.

It may in fact be that white guys are more likely to beat Trump. Is that really a shock after 2016?

And why are you skeptical of Beto appealing most across the aisle? Isn't that already clear by his amazing performance in Texas last November?
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Old 05-15-2019, 07:05 PM
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Harris is neither white nor a guy.
Nor is she favoured to beat Trump over some one term Congressman from Texas according to that poll.
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It may in fact be that white guys are more likely to beat Trump. Is that really a shock after 2016?

And why are you skeptical of Beto appealing most across the aisle? Isn't that already clear by his amazing performance in Texas last November?
Because Beto is a goofy empty suit and imho much of his Senate run performance can be attributed to the massive money he got from Dems across the nation wanting to stick a knife in Cruz. I do think he's a solid campaigner though - I said earlier that he could be a VP candidate and be quite useful.

Last edited by CarnalK; 05-15-2019 at 07:05 PM.
  #1134  
Old 05-15-2019, 08:41 PM
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Nor is she favoured to beat Trump over some one term Congressman from Texas according to that poll.

Because Beto is a goofy empty suit and imho much of his Senate run performance can be attributed to the massive money he got from Dems across the nation wanting to stick a knife in Cruz. I do think he's a solid campaigner though - I said earlier that he could be a VP candidate and be quite useful.
She still wins.

Beto could be a great Veep, it is juuuust possible he could bring in Texas (at least TX will be in play and Trump will have to spend $ and time there). OTOH, if it's Biden, what better balance for a old white guy than a younger black woman? Not that I am a big fan of Harris, but....
  #1135  
Old 05-15-2019, 09:04 PM
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Beto served THREE terms in Congress under two presidents. And the “empty suit” tag is a myth. I don’t believe anyone who claims this has watched his Q&As with an open mind. I can’t remember a candidate, in decades of closely following politics, who had so much relevant and specific information ready to cite, even on unexpected topics.
  #1136  
Old 05-16-2019, 05:51 AM
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NY mayor de Blasio joined the race today
  #1137  
Old 05-16-2019, 06:02 AM
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NY mayor de Blasio joined the race today
yay
  #1138  
Old 05-16-2019, 08:00 AM
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If O'Rourke couldn't win Texas against Cruz, then he can't win Texas against Trump, either. You might argue that, even without flipping Texas, he might still flip some other states which are similar to Texas but not quite as red... but if you're making that argument, then you should list those states.
  #1139  
Old 05-16-2019, 10:09 AM
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Buttigieg says he is also of a minority. Minority status has now become something to clamor for.
  #1140  
Old 05-16-2019, 10:15 AM
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Buttigieg says he is also of a minority. Minority status has now become something to clamor for.
I'm not sure why this would bother anyone:

Quote:
“It is true that each of us can see in our own identity all the reasons we’re misunderstood and then say, ‘You don’t understand me because you haven’t walked in my shoes’ — something that is true, as far as it goes,” Buttigieg said Saturday. “But it doesn’t get us very far. Because we could also see in our identity the beginning of a new form of American solidarity.”

* * *

“I’m not talking about pretending that there are equivalencies between the different patterns of exclusion in this country,” he explained. “I may be a part of the LGBTQ community, but being a gay man doesn’t even tell me what it’s like to be a trans woman of color in that same community — let alone an undocumented mother of four, or a disabled veteran or a displaced auto worker.”
  #1141  
Old 05-16-2019, 10:44 AM
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Curious why the Democratic debate can't be three days instead of two. Still only scheduled for June 26-27.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...=.05dc747a1945
  #1142  
Old 05-16-2019, 11:00 AM
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It may in fact be that white guys are more likely to beat Trump. Is that really a shock after 2016?

And why are you skeptical of Beto appealing most across the aisle? Isn't that already clear by his amazing performance in Texas last November?
Well, in the last five elections Dems are 0-2 with white guys and 2-1 without, so...

And skepticism of that poll is entirely justified, despite the excellent reputation of the pollster, because it's an extreme outlier; AFIACT there are literally NO other polls which have anyone but Biden as our strongest candidate, with Sanders a close second.

Polls of Texas specifically do suggest that Beto might be at least tied for our best option there. But if we win Texas, we're almost certainly going to win anyway, so I don't think that should be given much weight.
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:04 AM
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Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
NY mayor de Blasio joined the race today
I am...mildly intrigued. If his polling numbers take off I would at least consider supporting him over Bernie. My impression is that he isn't even very popular in NYC, though.
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Old 05-16-2019, 11:58 AM
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Well, in the last five elections Dems are 0-2 with white guys and 2-1 without, so...
In 2008, the country was so fed up with Katrina and Iraq, and McCain incompetence was so palpable (Sarah Palin??) that the D's could have run a potted plant and won.

It was brilliant of the D's to put this great black man into office in the "gimme" election of 2008; but it may have been a once-per-lifetime opportunity. Recall that Obama had an excellent first term but still almost lost to Romney in 2012.
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Old 05-16-2019, 12:10 PM
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I don't think your memories of 2008 match up with reality. Until the economy collapsed in the fall, polls showed a very close race. And you can ask President Hillary about how having a palpably incompetent opponent is a guarantee of victory. Also, it wasn't a huge landslide, but by the standards of Presidential elections, 2012 wasn't really all that close. And and and, if we're going by approval ratings (and/or midterm results), Obama's first term wasn't actually particularly "excellent". Other than that, good post.

Seriously, though, I was just needling Slacker. When looking at Presidential elections, which are rare events, each with their own unique circumstances, it's easy to fall into the fallacy of small sample sizes. If my post had been meant seriously, it would be an excellent example of that fallacy.
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Old 05-16-2019, 04:43 PM
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So out of these 23 Democratic candidates, how many truly, actually, want to win the presidency, and how many are just along for the ride?
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Old 05-16-2019, 04:55 PM
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Septimus is right, and it is Thing Fish who seems to have a spotty memory, IMO. Here is RCP's polling average:

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...obama-225.html

Note that McCain's lowest point actually came in June, well before the financial crisis hit.

Democrats had a "gimme" year, and some political scientists determined that (contrary to the annoying argument you hear from conservatives that he got some sort of pity win for being black) Obama actually did lose a couple points compared to how a standard white male Democrat would have done--but it didn't matter because the GOP brand was in the toilet.

As Jon Stewart observed, the Democrats basically nominated "Gaydolf Titler" and got away with it because they were playing in God mode. This is obviously not the case every time. It certainly was not in 2000, 2004, or 2016. I do think it's quite possibly the case again in 2020 (especially as the GOP seems hell-bent on driving away any remaining suburban moderates with their spasm of abortion extremism), but we shouldn't operate under that assumption.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
If O'Rourke couldn't win Texas against Cruz, then he can't win Texas against Trump, either. You might argue that, even without flipping Texas, he might still flip some other states which are similar to Texas but not quite as red... but if you're making that argument, then you should list those states.

I don't think it has to be a "similar state" to Texas. As Nate Silver has pointed out many times, although our system counts results from states individually, in the 21st century U.S. they are really not separate and distinct, but are rather highly correlated with each other. Beto has shown that he can get "soft Republicans" to vote for him in Texas, while still exciting Democrats. I see no reason to expect that he couldn't do the same elsewhere in states like Ohio or Florida that are more "gettable" for Democrats.
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Old 05-16-2019, 05:09 PM
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I don't think it has to be a "similar state" to Texas. As Nate Silver has pointed out many times, although our system counts results from states individually, in the 21st century U.S. they are really not separate and distinct, but are rather highly correlated with each other. Beto has shown that he can get "soft Republicans" to vote for him in Texas, while still exciting Democrats. I see no reason to expect that he couldn't do the same elsewhere in states like Ohio or Florida that are more "gettable" for Democrats.
People tend to be much more partisan in presidential elections than in local/state elections. Massachusetts has a Republican governor, Montana has a Democratic governor, etc. But on the presidential level, there's no chance that Massachusetts would ever go red or Montana go red. And on Election Day 2020, Texans would probably be just as hardline red for the (R) candidate as they were before.
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Old 05-16-2019, 05:11 PM
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Really, dude, you think I don't know how to read graphs? Your link shows that, indeed, McCain's very lowest point was in June...but he recovered and was actually leading the race by 2 1/2 points on September 13! Being behind in the polls with seven weeks to go is hardly "God mode". The Democrats could easily have blown that election if they'd had a weaker candidate, or if the financial house of cards had stayed up just another few weeks.
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Old 05-16-2019, 10:01 PM
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But that was a product of Obama’s relative electoral weakness. I submit that a John Kerry type nominee would not have ever trailed in the polls, and would have won by double digits. And your counterpoint conflicts with your previous argument. The house of cards had come crashing down by September 13.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
People tend to be much more partisan in presidential elections than in local/state elections. Massachusetts has a Republican governor, Montana has a Democratic governor, etc. But on the presidential level, there's no chance that Massachusetts would ever go red or Montana go red. And on Election Day 2020, Texans would probably be just as hardline red for the (R) candidate as they were before.

As Nate Silver has noted, this dynamic applies to gubernatorial races (which were all of your examples) and increasingly less so for U.S. Senate elections. People understand that control of an important branch of the federal government hinges on the latter, whereas for governor they are free to just pick the candidate they like.

Last edited by SlackerInc; 05-16-2019 at 10:04 PM.
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