View Poll Results: Was it a Blue...
Bust 12 5.66%
Trickle 24 11.32%
Small Wave 92 43.40%
Wave 68 32.08%
Big Wave 16 7.55%
Tsunami 0 0%
Megatsunami 0 0%
Voters: 212. You may not vote on this poll

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  #101  
Old 11-08-2018, 12:22 PM
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Is there any evidence this is true in cases that aren't gerrymandered? Looking at past results, it sure seems like Republicans have as many lopsided wins.
Sure.

Look at state boundaries. States are obviously not gerrymandered; their boundaries were made long before the current political climate.

The Democrats are more highly concentrated in highly populated states and the Republicans are more disperse.

Look at This chart showing the popular vote shift by state for the 2012 and 2016 elections[/url]

Look at the very Democratic states. There's a lot of population there. Look at the very Republican states. There's not a lot of population there. Look at the slightly Republican states. There's a lot of population there. Look at the slightly Democratic states. There's not a lot of population there.
  #102  
Old 11-08-2018, 12:32 PM
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What does "hold off on the Mueller report" mean? All I'm saying is that the Congress should do its duty -- including the duty of oversight of the Executive Branch. And investigating possible wrongdoing by members of the Executive Branch, including calling witnesses and reviewing documents, is well within this duty and an entirely reasonable thing to expect that Congress does.
Look, you view the Bengazhi and Email thing as partisan hackery, do you not? I'm just saying I think it would be tactically smarter to wait on Mueller's report (which shouldn't be long now), before going full bore investigation mode against Trump. Maybe he'll do their job for them.
  #103  
Old 11-08-2018, 12:48 PM
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Bottom line is that Dems really overplayed their hand with Kavanaugh. While they were doing it, I thought they were overplaying. Democratic turnout was already going to be sky high and was near peak. Taking a stand on Kavanaugh was not going to bring out more Democratic voters.
Half the voters in this country are women. Something a lot of conservative men seem to ignore.

In exit polls, women voted 59% for Democrats and 40% for Republicans. That's a significant shift; in the midterm elections of 2010 and 2014, women split pretty much equally on party lines.
  #104  
Old 11-08-2018, 12:52 PM
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Look, you view the Bengazhi and Email thing as partisan hackery, do you not? I'm just saying I think it would be tactically smarter to wait on Mueller's report (which shouldn't be long now), before going full bore investigation mode against Trump. Maybe he'll do their job for them.
Mueller's job is very limited in scope. His mission is purely to find out crimes that he can prove beyond a reasonable doubt in a court of law.

Congress's job is much broader than that. There are legitimate reasons, besides partisan hackery, for Congress to investigate Russian interference in the election. For example, they may find it wise to draft legislation to combat further interference. Personally I'd prefer an independent commission, like the 9/11 Commission, to thoroughly investigate and issue recommendations for lawmakers. I have doubts that that the Republicans in the Senate would pass it, or that Trump would sign it. In the absence of that, the Democrats in Congress should do their own investigation.

Last edited by Blalron; 11-08-2018 at 12:52 PM.
  #105  
Old 11-08-2018, 03:53 PM
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Wave, not tsunami


Dave Wasserman is the House editor of Cook's political report, which has handicapped elections for decades. He's calling it a wave:
In 2006/2010, the party "riding the wave" won an average of 57% of Toss Ups, 19% of opposite Leans, & 9% of opposite Likely races per @CookPolitical ratings. In 2018, Dems won/are leading in 57% of Toss Ups, 7% of Lean R races & 3% of Likely races. In the House, this was a wave. https://twitter.com/Redistrict/statu...84485408923648
We'll see if it holds up. In terms of the OP, this looks like less than a big wave and more than a small wave. IOW: a wave.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashtura View Post
Look, you view the Bengazhi and Email thing as partisan hackery, do you not? I'm just saying I think it would be tactically smarter to wait on Mueller's report (which shouldn't be long now), before going full bore investigation mode against Trump. Maybe he'll do their job for them.
Mueller isn't investigating emoluments. Mueller won't be releasing Trump's tax returns.

Independent investigation and oversight, which used to bipartisan responsibility, is the only responsible course of action. As for tactics, the Dems don't take over until January.

Last edited by Measure for Measure; 11-08-2018 at 03:56 PM.
  #106  
Old 11-08-2018, 03:56 PM
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Lost in all this is that with a larger margin in the Senate, Republicans are likelier to nominate someone far right-wing to the Supreme Court should Ginsburg or Breyer depart. Had it stayed at 51, they would have needed to find a more centrist nominee whom either Collins or Murkowski would support. But now neither Senator will be needed by the GOP.
If they could get Kavanaugh in with what they had before they can get anyone in.
  #107  
Old 11-08-2018, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Ashtura View Post
Look, you view the Bengazhi and Email thing as partisan hackery, do you not? I'm just saying I think it would be tactically smarter to wait on Mueller's report (which shouldn't be long now), before going full bore investigation mode against Trump. Maybe he'll do their job for them.
I don't see a conflict (there are many potential areas of wrongdoing outside the scope of Mueller's probe), but I don't have a problem with this if the Mueller report comes soon. And if it does, it's likely to reveal things that Congress ought to further investigate. And if Mueller is fired, then of course the House should find out why, and find out what Mueller's investigation learned.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 11-08-2018 at 04:07 PM.
  #108  
Old 11-08-2018, 04:11 PM
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If they could get Kavanaugh in with what they had before they can get anyone in.
Not necessarily. Kavanaugh was replacing Kennedy, a centrist, and so his appointment wasn't that great a shift in the court's balance. If Ginsburg (a far-lefty) departs and her Trump-nominated appointee is a far-right judge, there will be an even more intense firestorm. It would represent a massive shift in the court's balance, one that pro-choicers Collins and Murkowski might oppose.

The newly expanded Senate majority would allow McConnell and Co. to ram such a judge through no matter what Collins and Murkowski might say or do.
  #109  
Old 11-08-2018, 06:02 PM
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Good map here from the NY Times, using arrows to show which parts of the US shifted toward the Democrats and which toward the Republicans, and by how much:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...the-house.html

It confirms what I'd noticed on Election Night -- that the Great Plains was where much of the larger shifts toward Democrats occurred.
  #110  
Old 11-08-2018, 06:04 PM
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Tues night maybe it looked like a small wave, but right now it looks like a very solid wave, with at least a 35 seat gain likely. If they win the AZ and FL recounts, then I'd definitely call it a big wave.
  #111  
Old 11-08-2018, 06:08 PM
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Kyrsten Sinema is now in the lead in the AZ Senate race!!!

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0
  #112  
Old 11-08-2018, 06:11 PM
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Good map here from the NY Times, using arrows to show which parts of the US shifted toward the Democrats and which toward the Republicans, and by how much:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...the-house.html

It confirms what I'd noticed on Election Night -- that the Great Plains was where much of the larger shifts toward Democrats occurred.
There are a few oddities in that map, though. My district in Wisconsin is shown as shifting FAR to the right -- yet my rep Ron Kind, a Democrat, won easily (again). Huh?

Turns out he was unopposed two years ago. There's probably a few such situations sprinkles across that map.
  #113  
Old 11-08-2018, 08:57 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
Kyrsten Sinema is now in the lead in the AZ Senate race!!!

https://results.arizona.vote/#/featured/4/0
I was not too optimistic when I saw that Sinema was up by just about 2000 votes, but now..



She's over 9000!!!!
  #114  
Old 11-09-2018, 01:06 AM
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I think that those who thought this was trickle or small wave were a bit premature what with Sinema leading, and maybe even Nelson prevailing in recount, plus house seats left over continue to flip seats to Dems to where 35 to 38 seat win is very possible, clearly this was a big wave election.
  #115  
Old 11-09-2018, 11:18 AM
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I think that those who thought this was trickle or small wave were a bit premature what with Sinema leading, and maybe even Nelson prevailing in recount, plus house seats left over continue to flip seats to Dems to where 35 to 38 seat win is very possible, clearly this was a big wave election.
37 seats is the average loss of an incumbent president's party in a first mid-term in the modern era. That's pretty skewed by some very big and very small numbers mucking up the average, so perhaps it isn't worth much. But +37 House, +7 governor seats and -2 Senate( a likely outcome )is a good night. Nobody( on the left )should be depressed about it.

But a BIG wave would have been +50-60 House, +8 or more governor seats and 0 to +2 Senate - basically the far end of the 80% confidence margin on 538 curve. This ain't that, IMHO.

Last edited by Tamerlane; 11-09-2018 at 11:19 AM.
  #116  
Old 11-09-2018, 05:21 PM
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I'd call +2 Senate seats and 60 House seats a Tsunami.

Kevin Drum makes the case for the big wave: https://www.motherjones.com/kevin-dr...ans-this-week/
Letís review whatís happened over the past few days:

1. Democrats won a huge victory in the House. Even with all the gerrymandering and voter suppression that Republicans put in place, they won by a popular margin of 7-8 percent. When all the counting is done, they will probably have won about 35 new seats and Nancy Pelosi will be Speaker of the House. This ends Trumpís legislative agenda for good.

2. Trump immediately responded by holding an obviously unhinged press conference in which his nervousness and fear were plain to see. ...

9. Overall, Republican flipped seats in North Dakota, Indiana, and Missouri. Democrats have flipped a seat in Nevada and are quite possibly going to flip a seat in Arizona. In Florida, they may well prevent Republicans from flipping another seat. Altogether, if the best case works out for Democrats, they will lose only a net of one seat, leading to a 52-48 Senate. Thatís not much. It makes Mitch McConnellís job easier, but it also means that Democrats have an excellent chance of winning back the Senate in 2020, when Republicans have 21 senators to protect while Democrats have only 14óall but one of whom is pretty unbeatable. Republicans, by contrast probably have 5 or 6 vulnerable seats. ...

15. Altogether, the Democrats won a big victory in the House, suffered a small loss in the Senate, and won a big victory in the states. They also seem to be doing very well in court cases around the country, and public opinion is very much on their side. Meanwhile, Trumpís ability to win races is getting weaker, but Republicans are stuck with him anyway. More about that in the previous post I wrote this morning.
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Originally Posted by GIGObuster View Post
She's over 9000!!!!
What, 9000!


Ref: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_c...&v=E3dj3TJ1r9A
https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/its-over-9000

Last edited by Measure for Measure; 11-09-2018 at 05:24 PM.
  #117  
Old 11-09-2018, 09:41 PM
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Napa: "There is no way that can be right!..."


Yeah, she is now over 20,000 now!







Republicans: "Damn it, Napa"...

Last edited by GIGObuster; 11-09-2018 at 09:44 PM.
  #118  
Old 11-14-2018, 07:36 AM
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538 (and Nate Silver) have spoken: Yes, it was a blue wave.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-a-blue-wave/

I think this thread can be closed now.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 11-14-2018 at 07:36 AM.
  #119  
Old 11-14-2018, 04:07 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
538 (and Nate Silver) have spoken: Yes, it was a blue wave.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-a-blue-wave/

I think this thread can be closed now.
Nate Silver, from your link:
Quote:
The arguments that it ISNíT a blue wave are dumb. Can we end the chat now and get lunch?
  #120  
Old 11-14-2018, 05:35 PM
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Nate Silver, from your link:
I'd tack on the related "Arguments about whether it fits a meaningless label are also dumb."
  #121  
Old 11-14-2018, 11:48 PM
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"This will be the election of Kavanaugh, the caravans, law and order, tax cuts, and common sense." - DJT

He was right.

The party that opposed Kavanaugh did great. Senators in swing states who opposed Kav went 9-1. Swing state senators who supported him went 0-1.

Huge victory for the party that didn't piss its pants about the caravan. Nobody likes pants pissers.

Huge victory for the party of law an order and not the party with criminals from top to bottom.

Major rejection of tax cuts that primarily benefit the rich.

Huge win for common sense.
  #122  
Old 11-15-2018, 07:59 AM
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Originally Posted by Lance Turbo View Post
"This will be the election of Kavanaugh, the caravans, law and order, tax cuts, and common sense." - DJT

He was right.

The party that opposed Kavanaugh did great. Senators in swing states who opposed Kav went 9-1. Swing state senators who supported him went 0-1.

Huge victory for the party that didn't piss its pants about the caravan. Nobody likes pants pissers.

Huge victory for the party of law an order and not the party with criminals from top to bottom.

Major rejection of tax cuts that primarily benefit the rich.

Huge win for common sense.
Love it!
  #123  
Old 11-20-2018, 02:08 PM
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Nate Silver: "Democratic candidates for the House in 2018 received almost as many votes as President Trump in 2016", with charts! This is unprecedented. But is it a wave? "Of course it was."

How big? Nate Silver:
Personally, Iíd rank the 2018 wave a tick behind both 1994, which represented a historic shift after years of Democratic dominance of the House, and 2010, which reflected an especially ferocious shift against then-President Barack Obama after heíd been elected in a landslide two years earlier. But Iíd put 2018 a bit ahead of most other modern wave elections, such as 2006 and 1982. Your mileage may vary.

In another important respect, however, the 2018 wave was indisputably unlike any other in recent midterm history: It came with exceptionally high turnout.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...e-isnt-enough/
  #124  
Old 11-20-2018, 04:37 PM
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It's a wave, no question, and Republicans are thanking many varieties of deities for the senate map of 2018.
  #125  
Old 11-20-2018, 05:24 PM
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If I could, I'd change my vote from "Bust" to "Wave."
  #126  
Old 04-03-2019, 07:11 AM
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Just FYI, the wave has still yet to crest:

https://twitter.com/joncoopertweets/...595028480?s=19

"BREAKING: In a huge victory, Democrat @PamforPA has flipped a key state Senate seat in the special election in #SD37, a district largely controlled by Republicans for the last 50 years. The loss is seen as a sign that support for Republicans in the heartland is eroding. #PamForPA"
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