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  #101  
Old 02-20-2019, 06:50 PM
Wesley Clark is offline
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Trump--and I'll work to see him elected through volunteer work and donations if that can in any way hurt Bernie's campaign.
That means you fear european social democracy more than you fear neofascism and white nationalism. Thats your decision, but the rest of us aren't obligated to change to accomodate your opinion.

From what I remember hearing in 2016, many white male union workers were very pro-Trump and pro-Bernie, but lukewarm on Hillary. Hillary lost (among other reasons) because she lost high school educated whites, especially HS educated white men (who she lost by 50 points). If Sanders is able to shrink that gap by just a few points (maybe lose them by only 45 points or less), he could beat Trump in the midwest.
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  #102  
Old 02-20-2019, 06:50 PM
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People who actively want Bernie Sanders to be the Democratic nominee-
Do you think he can beat Trump when it's all on the table?
That worries me.

A good friend of mine is a Bernie Bro or whatever it is. I warned her that we may want to watch out for Trump.

She responded that the women of the US won't let that happen, and she was gonna write in Bernie.

Didn't work out too well.
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  #103  
Old 02-20-2019, 06:51 PM
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Yes, he has the best chance of beating Trump among the major Democratic candidates along with Biden.
I know Biden can beat Trump. All day long. I'm not asking about Biden. Do you think Trump vs. Sanders could result in President Sanders?

Last edited by bobot; 02-20-2019 at 06:52 PM.
  #104  
Old 02-20-2019, 06:52 PM
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People who actively want Bernie Sanders to be the Democratic nominee-
Do you think he can beat Trump when it's all on the table?
I'll vote for any democrat over Trump. and I think Bernie is overrated because even if he becomes president, he won't get anything done (congress isn't going to pass his agenda, even if the democrats control both houses).

However I think Bernie could connect with high school educated whites better than Trump.

However i worry he may lose some support among college educated whites. Then again, some of his programs would benefit them directly. Free public college, subsidized daycare, medicare for all, etc.
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  #105  
Old 02-20-2019, 06:56 PM
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I'm gonna pull some strings with God and get him the nomination....and when leftists here and in the media continue to attack him, I want apologies.

And when he beats Trump, I want more apologies from the people who say he has and had no chance
  #106  
Old 02-20-2019, 07:00 PM
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  #107  
Old 02-20-2019, 07:01 PM
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And tell "him" to fuck "himself".

Last edited by bobot; 02-20-2019 at 07:01 PM.
  #108  
Old 02-20-2019, 07:10 PM
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I'm gonna pull some strings with God and get him the nomination....and when leftists here and in the media continue to attack him, I want apologies. ...
No actual leftist will attack Bernie Sanders after he gets the nomination (if he does). We all know that the alternative is a continuation of the current horror-show.

If excoriated with 'how could you have called on him to release his tax records, that was a vicious thing to say,' I expect we will all shrug and get back to planning how to get Democrats to the polls to vote for Sanders.
  #109  
Old 02-20-2019, 07:15 PM
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And tell "him" to fuck "himself".
He said "How long can you tread water?"

I told him that's inappropriate now and he told me to go fuck myself.
  #110  
Old 02-20-2019, 07:43 PM
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People who actively want Bernie Sanders to be the Democratic nominee-
Do you think he can beat Trump when it's all on the table?
All available polling data suggests he can.
  #111  
Old 02-20-2019, 07:45 PM
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I know Biden can beat Trump. All day long. I'm not asking about Biden. Do you think Trump vs. Sanders could result in President Sanders?
To be clearer: all available polling data show both Biden and Sanders beating Trump by a wide margin. Do you have some reason to think that the polls are more accurate in the one case than in the other?
  #112  
Old 02-20-2019, 08:25 PM
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Polling today means nothing.
  #113  
Old 02-20-2019, 08:29 PM
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Simple facts—Trump didn’t win because of his base, who by and large were people who have always voted GOP. He won because Hillary’s personal unfavorability and bad campaigning allowed enough moderates and swing vote independents to find a way to “yes.”

Democrats won back the House entirely because of moderate Dem candidates who knew how to win local races and not focus on far leftism which is deeply unpopular in many of those districts. While imperfect, the electoral college and the House of Representatives have decent correlation in elections. If you expect to run a candidate anathema to the values of most Americans, expect to lose in many of the same places the DNC ran moderate candidates that won in 2018.

I am one person but it’s not crazy to think of me as being somewhat representative of people like me—people that voted Republican our entire lives but got on the never trump train. If it doesn’t worry you Sanders is the one way to make me a Trump supporter, it should.

Last edited by Martin Hyde; 02-20-2019 at 08:31 PM.
  #114  
Old 02-20-2019, 08:30 PM
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To be clearer: all available polling data show both Biden and Sanders beating Trump by a wide margin. Do you have some reason to think that the polls are more accurate in the one case than in the other?
Emerson poll from this week...

General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. O'Rourke Emerson O'Rourke 53, Trump 47 O'Rourke +6
General Election: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Warren 53, Trump 47 Warren +6
General Election: Trump vs. Brown Emerson Brown 52, Trump 48 Brown +4
General Election: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Harris 52, Trump 48 Harris +4
General Election: Trump vs. Booker Emerson Booker 51, Trump 49 Booker +2
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar Emerson Klobuchar 51, Trump 49 Klobuchar +2
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 51, Trump 49 Sanders +2

I'll note that these numbers seem off to me in that there are no undecideds which is crazy this far out.
  #115  
Old 02-20-2019, 08:35 PM
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Things to mind:

1. Many voters know very little about Sanders and only know him as an anti-Hillary foil.
2. Most voters have not been taught he is atheist.
3. Most voters have not been taught he loved the Soviet Union.
4. Most voters have not been taught he has never worked a real job and spent much of his life on welfare.
5. Most workers haven’t seen the 2016 RNC hit file on Sanders, which purportedly is full of nasty stories and is 2 feet thick. Expect a barrage of leaks about shady communist associations, and behaviors and opinions shared that are wildly out of the American mainstream.
6. Most voters have not been taught that Sanders hates Israel, and views terrorists like Hamas as allies.
  #116  
Old 02-20-2019, 08:40 PM
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6. Most voters have not been taught that Sanders hates Israel, and views terrorists like Hamas as allies.
I certainly didn't know that one. Who, presumably with more foreign policy expertise, do you think he'd choose as a running mate?
  #117  
Old 02-20-2019, 08:50 PM
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Originally Posted by Martin Hyde View Post
Simple facts—Trump didn’t win because of his base, who by and large were people who have always voted GOP. He won because Hillary’s personal unfavorability and bad campaigning allowed enough moderates and swing vote independents to find a way to “yes.”

Democrats won back the House entirely because of moderate Dem candidates who knew how to win local races and not focus on far leftism which is deeply unpopular in many of those districts. While imperfect, the electoral college and the House of Representatives have decent correlation in elections. If you expect to run a candidate anathema to the values of most Americans, expect to lose in many of the same places the DNC ran moderate candidates that won in 2018.

I am one person but it’s not crazy to think of me as being somewhat representative of people like me—people that voted Republican our entire lives but got on the never trump train. If it doesn’t worry you Sanders is the one way to make me a Trump supporter, it should.
Part of it is that its kind of offensive to have lifelong republicans tell us democrats how to run our party. Telling us 'act like republican-lite or republicans won't vote for you'. How do you feel when democrats tell the republican party to act like democrats in order to win elections?

Yes you personally will support Trump. I accept that. But unless there is evidence that there are endless millions of other you's in strategic states and districts, I'm not worried about it. Over half of the democratic party now consists of liberals, I don't see them abandoning their values because a lifelong republican moved back into the GOP fold.

And as I mentioned earlier, someone like sanders may do better with whites w/o high school, who are strategically located in the midwest. Younger voters are more left leaning than older voters too. Times are changing.
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Last edited by Wesley Clark; 02-20-2019 at 08:53 PM.
  #118  
Old 02-20-2019, 08:55 PM
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To be clearer: all available polling data show both Biden and Sanders beating Trump by a wide margin. Do you have some reason to think that the polls are more accurate in the one case than in the other?
Do you have a reason to think either means anything at all?
  #119  
Old 02-20-2019, 08:57 PM
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...He did keep running after his nomination seemed highly unlikely...just like Hillary Clinton did in 2008. The only difference is that many of her supporters were apparently so embittered by her attacks on the successful candidate that they failed to support the Party's candidate in the general election.
I really wish people would stop saying this. The two situations are not remotely comparable.

In the 2008 primaries, Clinton lost the popular vote by about 100,000 ballots (that's if you don't count MI and FL, as you shouldn't). The candidates were less than a percentage point apart. In mid-March she was behind by about 150 pledged delegates; that was her low-water mark, and by the end of the season she had brought the deficit down to about 100.

In the 2016 primaries, Sanders lost the popular vote by about 3,700,000 ballots, or a deficit 37 times bigger than the Clinton deficit eight years earlier. The candidates were about 13 percentage points apart. Sanders ended the season with losses in California and New Jersey, leaving him 450 pledged delegates short. See any differences here?

That's before we get to superdelegates. Obama had a few more than Clinton by the end of the 2008 primaries. Clinton had about 12 times as many as Sanders by the end of the race in 2016.

And that's before we get to when the two candidates admitted defeat. Clinton conceded about four days after the last primary contest in '08. Sanders conceded about six weeks after the last primary contest in '16.

Yes, because of proportional awarding of delegates Clinton reached a point toward the end in 2008 where it was very unlikely that she would be able to overcome Obama's lead, and as an Obama supporter I said then and maintain now that she stayed in far too long. But her chances of pulling it out were light years beyond Sanders's chances in 2016. By mid-April 2016 it was clear that Sanders had no shot, and yet, like Marvin K. Mooney, he refused to go now--or at any time till the votes were in at the convention.

It's ludicrous to think these situations are at all similar.

Last edited by Ulf the Unwashed; 02-20-2019 at 09:00 PM.
  #120  
Old 02-20-2019, 09:29 PM
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Emerson poll from this week...
<snip>
I'll note that these numbers seem off to me in that there are no undecideds which is crazy this far out.
Undecided was not an allowable choice. Likewise for the results in that poll in the primary were 27% choosing Biden, 17% Sanders, and 14% Harris - no option of undecided. (Could say "someone else", which got 5%, but not undecided.)

Again, other polls (of the primary field) appropriately find that the number one choice is undecided.

I am one of those who would vote for a mummified husk over Trump. Sanders would win even over a mummified husk ... but I'd have to think about it.

There is another aspect to consider - national numbers matter less than a few key states. Basically Trump loses, not if he loses the popular vote, he did that last time, but if he loses any of the states he won last time. For the virtually nothing the polling currently means how does the polling look now in, say, Michigan?
Quote:
Voters were presented with four hypothetical matchups between President Trump and likely Democratic candidates Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. Trump loses all four matchups.

Joe Biden leads 53.3 percent - 40.3 percent over Donald Trump, with only 5.3 percent of voters undecided.

Kamala Harris leads 46.6 percent-42.4 percent over Donald Trump, with 9.7 percent of voters undecided.

Bernie Sanders leads 52.0 percent-41.2 percent over Donald Trump, with only 5.5 percent of voters undecided.

Elizabeth Warren leads 45.8 percent-42.5 percent over Donald Trump, with 10.3 percent of voters undecided

Last edited by DSeid; 02-20-2019 at 09:30 PM.
  #121  
Old 02-20-2019, 09:55 PM
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Emerson poll from this week...

General Election: Trump vs. Biden Emerson Biden 55, Trump 45 Biden +10
General Election: Trump vs. O'Rourke Emerson O'Rourke 53, Trump 47 O'Rourke +6
General Election: Trump vs. Warren Emerson Warren 53, Trump 47 Warren +6
General Election: Trump vs. Brown Emerson Brown 52, Trump 48 Brown +4
General Election: Trump vs. Harris Emerson Harris 52, Trump 48 Harris +4
General Election: Trump vs. Booker Emerson Booker 51, Trump 49 Booker +2
General Election: Trump vs. Klobuchar Emerson Klobuchar 51, Trump 49 Klobuchar +2
General Election: Trump vs. Sanders Emerson Sanders 51, Trump 49 Sanders +2

I'll note that these numbers seem off to me in that there are no undecideds which is crazy this far out.
An excellent point. The numbers in this poll are generally quite different than other polls I have seen.
  #122  
Old 02-20-2019, 09:58 PM
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6. Most voters have not been taught that Sanders hates Israel, and views terrorists like Hamas as allies.
Does he really? Do you have a cite for that?

The only articles I've seen on the subject are along the lines of: "Bernie employed person A. Person A once gave a speech to organization B. Organization B once employed person C. And person C once praised Hamas."

Whatever you feel about Bernie, I don't think it's true that he views Islamic terrorists as allies. (Unlike, say, Jeremy Corbyn.)
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  #123  
Old 02-20-2019, 10:05 PM
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Do you have a reason to think either means anything at all?
They mean little at this point. My personal interpretation of the data is that the candidates who are hypothetically beating Trump by smaller margins right now are doing so because voters are less familiar with them, not because Biden and Sanders are intrinsically better candidates.

But the question was whether I think Sanders can beat Trump. All available evidence suggests that he can.

Given the choice between trusting polling data and trusting some dude on a message board sputtering "But his Soviet honeymoon! And his wife was once accused of improper accounting techniques! Once the voters hear of this, he is doomed! Doomed, I say!", I'm gonna go with the data.

Last edited by Thing Fish; 02-20-2019 at 10:08 PM.
  #124  
Old 02-20-2019, 10:14 PM
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Does anyone have a link to a relatively unbiased discussion of the tax return issue? Because I have to be honest, that does bug me.
  #125  
Old 02-20-2019, 10:24 PM
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I really wish people would stop saying this. The two situations are not remotely comparable.

In the 2008 primaries, Clinton lost the popular vote by about 100,000 ballots (that's if you don't count MI and FL, as you shouldn't). The candidates were less than a percentage point apart. In mid-March she was behind by about 150 pledged delegates; that was her low-water mark, and by the end of the season she had brought the deficit down to about 100.

In the 2016 primaries, Sanders lost the popular vote by about 3,700,000 ballots, or a deficit 37 times bigger than the Clinton deficit eight years earlier. The candidates were about 13 percentage points apart. Sanders ended the season with losses in California and New Jersey, leaving him 450 pledged delegates short. See any differences here?

That's before we get to superdelegates. Obama had a few more than Clinton by the end of the 2008 primaries. Clinton had about 12 times as many as Sanders by the end of the race in 2016.

And that's before we get to when the two candidates admitted defeat. Clinton conceded about four days after the last primary contest in '08. Sanders conceded about six weeks after the last primary contest in '16.

Yes, because of proportional awarding of delegates Clinton reached a point toward the end in 2008 where it was very unlikely that she would be able to overcome Obama's lead, and as an Obama supporter I said then and maintain now that she stayed in far too long. But her chances of pulling it out were light years beyond Sanders's chances in 2016. By mid-April 2016 it was clear that Sanders had no shot, and yet, like Marvin K. Mooney, he refused to go now--or at any time till the votes were in at the convention.

It's ludicrous to think these situations are at all similar.
I'll grant your basic point that the situations are grossly dissimilar, and I agree that Sanders should have withdrawn before he did.

Still...IIRC, the polls in California were basically accurate and predicted him losing there by 7-8 points, which he did. His biggest overperformance relative to polls was in Michigan, which he narrowly won after polls showed him losing by 15. So if he had duplicated that in California, he would have won by 7-8 points instead. And he would have been able to make the case to the superdelegates that he clearly had momentum on his side.
  #126  
Old 02-21-2019, 01:33 AM
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Bernie taking it via superdelegates after being on his high horse about them all through the primaries would have been rank hypocrisy.

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Originally Posted by Dale Sams View Post
I'm gonna pull some strings with God and get him the nomination....and when leftists here and in the media continue to attack him, I want apologies.

And when he beats Trump, I want more apologies from the people who say he has and had no chance

Bernie would have a good chance to beat Trump. Virtually any Democrat with a pulse would. But that's because Trump is so weak. Bernie as nominee would, IMO, give Trump a non-insignificant chance of winning, whereas a safer nominee would virtually eliminate that chance.

Still, this is the best chance the far left is going to get to actually put one of their own in the White House, so I can't blame them for licking their chops. I'm going to try my hardest to stop them though. And then if they prevail in the primaries, I'm going to take a deep breath, swallow hard, and do my best to oust Trump from office.


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Originally Posted by Thing Fish View Post
Does anyone have a link to a relatively unbiased discussion of the tax return issue? Because I have to be honest, that does bug me.

It bothers me too. A lot. To join Trump as the only two candidates since Nixon to refuse to release them is just straight up shady. I have to really wonder, since he pulled the same shit Trump did by stalling and making excuses but still acting like he was going to do it, when apparently he never intended to.

So not only is it just a very questionable thing ethically that makes me wonder what he is hiding, it takes away an arrow from his quiver that any other Democrat would have. Another arrow any other Democrat but Bernie and Tulsi would have is to have no taint of involvement with the Soviet regime, in contrast to Trump. We are fools if we throw away those two aces in the hole (to mix metaphors a bit).
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  #127  
Old 02-21-2019, 01:47 AM
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It might not sit well with you personally, but I firmly believe that the vast majority of voters do not give a shit about the candidate's taxes. Taxes are like cancer. You'll do anything to avoid them; you don't even want to think about them; just the WORD is psychologically toxic. People prefer to keep it out of sight and out of mind whenever possible.

Whatever "arrows" might theoretically be lacking from Sanders' "quiver" are more than made up for by the strength of his message and his total conviction and purposefulness, something that very few American politicians can really claim to have at the present time.

I say this as someone highly skeptical of the feasibility of his ideas. I'm just talking about Bernie The Candidate here. He has strong marketability. He's successfully created a brand. He's already achieved what most of the candidates will need to spend the entire next two years busting their asses on. In the marketplace of politics, Sanders is a hot commodity and highly competitive. How's that for Communism?
  #128  
Old 02-21-2019, 01:52 AM
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Things to mind:
I passed this by without thinking about it, but since I was searching for the tax return issue, I did a 10 minute search on this as well.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Martin Hyde View Post
1. Many voters know very little about Sanders and only know him as an anti-Hillary foil.
It's difficult to know what other people know, but information can be found on a 10 minute search.

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Originally Posted by Martin Hyde View Post
2. Most voters have not been taught he is atheist.
He has said he doesn't belong to a religious organization, but he is religious. The polls showed people not very interested.

Quote:
Is Bernie Sanders religious or not?
Many Americans answer that question with a shrug, according to a January poll conducted by the Pew Research Center. Nearly a third say Sanders is "somewhat" religious; nearly a third say he's not, and more than a quarter say they don't know.
CNN

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Originally Posted by Martin Hyde View Post
3. Most voters have not been taught he loved the Soviet Union.
Well, he loved the experience of his honeymoon in the Soviet Union anyway.

Quote:
Q. Let’s move on to a lighter topic. You’ve been married to your wife Jane for almost 30 years. What’s the secret to a successful marriage?

A. One word: romance. For example, on our honeymoon, I took Jane to Russia, back when it was still known as the Soviet Union. Russia was an incredible place back then, before the billionaires ruined everything. Who needs 30 different types of deodorant anyway? In the glory days of the Soviet Union, there was one brand, it was called “Deodorant,” and you had to wait four hours in line for it. By the time you got your hands on one, you were sweating so badly, not even the greediest billionaire’s fanciest deodorant could mask the stench. Or as I call it: The sweet smell of equality!

The Haven on Medium.com


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4. Most voters have not been taught he has never worked a real job and spent much of his life on welfare.
Snopes says it depends on what people mean by a 9-5 job (or "real job" as you say here). He's been on a law task force, a freelance writer and a carpenter to name a few things before he became a mayor at age 39. At that time, it might not have been a "real job", but today that might be considered a gig worker. Perhaps that's why he has empathy for people who are struggling to make ends meet.

He was on unemployment, but there were no documents about welfare that snopes listed.

Quote:
He’s on unemployment compensation right now, having worked for the Bread & Law Task Force, as a free-lance writer, and as a carpenter in the Burlington area
Snopes

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Originally Posted by Martin Hyde View Post
5. Most workers haven’t seen the 2016 RNC hit file on Sanders, which purportedly is full of nasty stories and is 2 feet thick. Expect a barrage of leaks about shady communist associations, and behaviors and opinions shared that are wildly out of the American mainstream.
No doubt. Some of it may even be true.

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Originally Posted by Martin Hyde View Post
6. Most voters have not been taught that Sanders hates Israel, and views terrorists like Hamas as allies.
Quote:
The Jewish presidential hopeful, a former kibbutz volunteer, is against the US ‘pouring so much military aid into Israel,’ vows to be ‘evenhanded’ in dealing with Israeli-Palestinian conflict

The Times of Israel


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Does anyone have a link to a relatively unbiased discussion of the tax return issue? Because I have to be honest, that does bug me.
Not sure if this is unbiased. Just some stuff I picked up in a quick search.

As for the tax returns, Sanders' income came mainly from his salary as a Senator and Social Security in 2014. His net worth, by some accounts, was $300,000, making him the poorest Senator at that time.

Quote:
Sanders’ tax return: As ‘boring’ as promised

Most of his earnings came from his $174,000 salary as a U.S. senator, as well as Social Security benefits.

Politico

Reddit discussion at that time, linking to tax returns. There seemed to be some kind of controversy at the time, but I don't know what it was.

From April 2015,

Quote:
Sanders said that he would release his full 2014 tax return on Friday, and he kept his word despite a long trip to the Vatican. You can see his full tax return at this link.

Sanders warned at the debate that because he doesn’t make much money, the tax returns are going to be very boring. This was confirmed. His income for the entire year was less than Hillary Clinton has made for one speech at certain venues
Heavy.com
  #129  
Old 02-21-2019, 01:54 AM
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Sanders is anti-GMO and anti-nuclear power, which means he is anti-science. He needs to go away.
Bernie is pro-vaccination and anti-fracking, which means he's pro-science.

Why are you demanding that the heavily populated Northeast hew to nuclear power in a post-Fukushima world?

And why is it so important that no one even know if they're eating GMO's? What are you afraid of?
  #130  
Old 02-21-2019, 02:03 AM
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I am one person but it’s not crazy to think of me as being somewhat representative of people like me—people that voted Republican our entire lives but got on the never trump train. If it doesn’t worry you Sanders is the one way to make me a Trump supporter, it should.
It does worry me that you would support a would-be dictator who wants to kill journalists, over someone whose worst sin is probably his hatred of nuclear power plants.

But Bernie has the movement; Right now, it looks like he'll get the Richard Ojeda types, he'll get young people, he'll even get some of the communists who don't believe in electoral politics. And the Democrats need a movement like that to win.
  #131  
Old 02-21-2019, 02:08 AM
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Wait, what am I saying? The Democrats can beat Trump with an expired can of peaches. This year. Probably.

The trick is hanging on after that. You must win future congressional elections. Democrats don't do that, not since 1994.

Seriously, though; against a divided field, if he stays healthy, Bernie is most likely going to do to the Democratic field what Trump did to the Republicans in 2016. It doesn't matter what we think. Now the problem is getting him a good running mate in case he has a stroke in office.
  #132  
Old 02-21-2019, 02:11 AM
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RE: Israel - I think we should put a pin in the subject until the elections here next month. For the past decade, attitudes towards Israel, in American and elsewhere, have been conflated with attitudes toward Bibi Netanyahu and the Likud. If (God willing!) they lose the election, the entire array of support for and opposition to Israel will be rearranged - at which point we'll see where each candidate (Dem and Rep) stands.
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Old 02-21-2019, 02:11 AM
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OK, so he did release the 2014 return and it was predictably unexciting. Why hasn't he released more?

Is it actually customary for candidates to release all their tax forms during the primaries, or do they usually wait until they've been nominated?
  #134  
Old 02-21-2019, 06:15 AM
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And tell "him" to fuck "himself".
Upon review, that came across way angrier than I intended.
  #135  
Old 02-21-2019, 07:12 AM
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RE: Israel - I think we should put a pin in the subject until the elections here next month. For the past decade, attitudes towards Israel, in American and elsewhere, have been conflated with attitudes toward Bibi Netanyahu and the Likud. If (God willing!) they lose the election, the entire array of support for and opposition to Israel will be rearranged - at which point we'll see where each candidate (Dem and Rep) stands.
I think there's a lot of truth to this, but even if Bibi loses, his opposition is under perpetual pressure not to look weak. I'm not sure how much would really change.
  #136  
Old 02-21-2019, 07:15 AM
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It might not sit well with you personally, but I firmly believe that the vast majority of voters do not give a shit about the candidate's taxes. Taxes are like cancer. You'll do anything to avoid them; you don't even want to think about them; just the WORD is psychologically toxic. People prefer to keep it out of sight and out of mind whenever possible.

Whatever "arrows" might theoretically be lacking from Sanders' "quiver" are more than made up for by the strength of his message and his total conviction and purposefulness, something that very few American politicians can really claim to have at the present time.

I say this as someone highly skeptical of the feasibility of his ideas. I'm just talking about Bernie The Candidate here. He has strong marketability. He's successfully created a brand. He's already achieved what most of the candidates will need to spend the entire next two years busting their asses on. In the marketplace of politics, Sanders is a hot commodity and highly competitive. How's that for Communism?
I think taxes are not necessarily a deal breaker, but they're an issue for sure, and I think they're even more of an issue among democrats. Releasing tax returns are a gesture of transparency, which is something that Republican oligarchs obviously don't value, but Democrats do.
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Old 02-21-2019, 07:26 AM
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Does anyone have a link to a relatively unbiased discussion of the tax return issue? Because I have to be honest, that does bug me.
If you Google it, you'll find a variety of articles on the matter. Politifact, in fact, reported in 2016 that the Sanders' campaign assertion that they had released their tax returns was, in fact, "false".

https://www.politifact.com/truth-o-m...eturns-compar/

Washington Post then followed it up with a fact check of their own, which can be read here:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.3f32055d903e

This was in response to an interview with Jake Tapper in which he said that he and his wife do his tax returns and excused himself by saying "We've been a little busy lately".

Taxes are an even bigger issue if he's going to bring his wife into the discussion given that she was the subject of a federal probe into the collapse of the college she managed.

Further, I'm wondering how smart it is for a high-profile political figure like Sanders to be doing his own taxes, especially since he's that busy. I'm not claiming he doesn't have the right to do them himself - he absolutely does. But how smart is that, really? Especially knowing that an error or two can lead to political scrutiny and even more so if you don't have a third party to blame.
  #138  
Old 02-21-2019, 07:43 AM
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So just like Hillary Clinton in 2008.
Except for the nomination being decided part.
  #139  
Old 02-21-2019, 07:55 AM
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Simple facts—Trump didn’t win because of his base, who by and large were people who have always voted GOP. He won because Hillary’s personal unfavorability and bad campaigning allowed enough moderates and swing vote independents to find a way to “yes.” ...
A horse that has been beaten to death, reanimated, and beaten zombie horse killed again, many times, but not really so much so.

There of course were moderates and swing voters who had voted for Obama who switched and said yes to Trump, partially offset by those who had gone Romney and switched and said yes to Clinton. But Trump did not win by getting more votes. I'm not talking here about the popular vote loss; he won with fewer votes than Romney and McCain lost with. He won because of the missing Obama millions. The argument that one needs to excite those who came out for Obama but sat it out for someone who was not seen as a change agent but as a return to the past, has more credence than being fearful of someone who is perceived as that change agent driving voters away.

I think Sanders could win. I am not as sure of it as I am of other options winning and I am not on his train, but he could and his preaching that it is time for something completely different is not his weakness, it is his strength.
  #140  
Old 02-21-2019, 08:19 AM
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Simple facts—Trump didn’t win because of his base, who by and large were people who have always voted GOP. He won because Hillary’s personal unfavorability and bad campaigning allowed enough moderates and swing vote independents to find a way to “yes.”
And also because not enough black voters turned out to vote the way they did for Obama. Which is likely to be even more the case with Sanders - he is also white, equally un-charismatic, and anti-Semitic attitudes among blacks are unpleasantly common.

Plus, we've run the numbers on his various proposals.
Quote:
Senator Sanders’s plan would raise tax revenue by $13.6 trillion over the next decade on a static basis. However, the plan would end up collecting $9.8 trillion over the next decade when accounting for decreased economic output in the long run...

On a static basis, the plan would lead to 10.56 percent lower after-tax income for all taxpayers and 17.91 percent lower after-tax income for the top 1 percent. When accounting for reduced GDP, after-tax incomes of all taxpayers would fall by at least 12.84 percent...

Our analysis finds that the plan would increase federal revenues by $13.6 trillion over the next decade. The plan would also increase marginal tax rates on both labor and capital. As a result, the plan would reduce the size of gross domestic product (GDP) by 9.5 percent over the long term. This decrease in GDP would translate into an 18.6 percent smaller capital stock and 6.0 million fewer full-time equivalent jobs.
He's Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, except not pretty.

It would be nice if we could just raise taxes on somebody else and all our problems go away, but TANSTAAFL.

Regards,
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  #141  
Old 02-21-2019, 08:39 AM
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I passed this by without thinking about it, but since I was searching for the tax return issue, I did a 10 minute search on this as well.



It's difficult to know what other people know, but information can be found on a 10 minute search.



He has said he doesn't belong to a religious organization, but he is religious. The polls showed people not very interested.



CNN



Well, he loved the experience of his honeymoon in the Soviet Union anyway.



The Haven on Medium.com




Snopes says it depends on what people mean by a 9-5 job (or "real job" as you say here). He's been on a law task force, a freelance writer and a carpenter to name a few things before he became a mayor at age 39. At that time, it might not have been a "real job", but today that might be considered a gig worker. Perhaps that's why he has empathy for people who are struggling to make ends meet.

He was on unemployment, but there were no documents about welfare that snopes listed.



Snopes



No doubt. Some of it may even be true.





The Times of Israel




Not sure if this is unbiased. Just some stuff I picked up in a quick search.

As for the tax returns, Sanders' income came mainly from his salary as a Senator and Social Security in 2014. His net worth, by some accounts, was $300,000, making him the poorest Senator at that time.



Politico

Reddit discussion at that time, linking to tax returns. There seemed to be some kind of controversy at the time, but I don't know what it was.

From April 2015,



Heavy.com
Man this post is cute. It’s like you live in a fantasy world where you’re going to be able to effectively counter Trump messaging on Bernie with Snopes links and other forms of fact checking. If that was true, he wouldn’t be President today. Some portion of the public has heard these attacks on Bernie before—but they haven’t seen the President of the United States say them every day for 6 months, the media gullibly repeat them as “controversial claims”, the conservative media repeat them as fact etc. Bernie has benefited from being in a cocoon. During the primaries the Republicans clearly wanted him to remain viable to hurt Hillary. Hillary didn’t want to go after him because she didn’t want to alienate her voters.

I can assure you whatever polls you have about someone who has never been a party’s nominee for President, they just aren’t relevant because a lot of stuff is going to be done to Bernie that has never been done before if he’s nominated. Even aside from Bernie’s many vulnerabilities, the simple fact is many of his beliefs are well out of the mainstream—and something like 60% of Americans view socialism unfavorably. The argument you guys want to make to counter this take time to explain, and in politics a wordy counterargument to a resonating and short attack never work.
  #142  
Old 02-21-2019, 08:57 AM
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The argument you guys want to make to counter this take time to explain, and in politics a wordy counterargument to a resonating and short attack never work.
You're a smart person. How can you admit the above and still assert that you'd work hard to elect Trump over Sanders?
  #143  
Old 02-21-2019, 09:28 AM
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Even aside from Bernie’s many vulnerabilities, the simple fact is many of his beliefs are well out of the mainstream—and something like 60% of Americans view socialism unfavorably.
Can I get a cite for this?

Fox News polling from 1/4/19 says that Americans prefer capitalism 56% to 37%. Is this the 60% you mean--people who prefer capitalism to socialism? That trend seems to be shifting quickly. The young and the Democrats have already shifted positions to favoring socialism over capitalism. Considering that the US is a capitalist society, I thought it would be higher.

Quote:
Back in 2010, 68 percent of young people, 18-29 years old, said they approved of capitalism, while 51 percent said they approved of socialism, according to Gallup. Fast-forward to August 2018, and that same age group backs socialism over capitalism, 51 percent to 45 percent.

Democrats, meanwhile, were evenly split between capitalism and socialism back in 2010. But now, 57 percent say they hold a positive view of socialism, compared with just 47 percent who say the same for capitalism.

The trend extends to high school students, according to a YouGov poll released in November, which found 14-17-year-olds split 50-50 on whether socialism or capitalism is better.

Americans as a whole, however, still prefer capitalism 56 percent to 37 percent.
The reason Fox News gave for the shift toward socialism is Bernie Sanders. And of course, it's democratic socialism where the means of production is not owned by the government in most cases.

Quote:
Polling experts say Bernie Sanders' softer brand of "Democratic socialism" has sold well among young people partly because they have no personal memory of Soviet-style socialism.
According to Fox News, the shift is recent.

Quote:
The shift is a recent phenomenon, and reflects a dimming view of capitalism more than anything.
Americans warming to socialism over capitalism, polls show in Fox News

Socialism’s Rising Popularity Threatens America’s Future in National Review

Last edited by Heffalump and Roo; 02-21-2019 at 09:33 AM.
  #144  
Old 02-21-2019, 09:47 AM
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You're a smart person. How can you admit the above and still assert that you'd work hard to elect Trump over Sanders?
I actually think Bernie would be among one of the worst Presidents ever elected? I'm not a liberal or a leftist. I think Trump is probably the worst President aside from a couple of mid-19th century ones who basically were pro-Confederacy during the Civil War; but I also have more of a sober view of politics than is typically seen around these parts.

Trump is very stupid, he has very inappropriate opinions on the constitution, Presidential power etc. But a lot of the doomsaying about Trump has never happened because there are many institutions that have proven resilient to his behavior. I know what I'm getting with Trump. Even two years of full Republican control of congress, Trump got very little accomplished due to how bad a President he is, which also mitigated the damage he could do. When I'm picking between two people I think are both deeply unsuited to the office, I'm certainly not voting for the socialist.
  #145  
Old 02-21-2019, 10:05 AM
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I actually think Bernie would be among one of the worst Presidents ever elected? I'm not a liberal or a leftist. I think Trump is probably the worst President aside from a couple of mid-19th century ones who basically were pro-Confederacy during the Civil War; but I also have more of a sober view of politics than is typically seen around these parts.



Trump is very stupid, he has very inappropriate opinions on the constitution, Presidential power etc. But a lot of the doomsaying about Trump has never happened because there are many institutions that have proven resilient to his behavior. I know what I'm getting with Trump. Even two years of full Republican control of congress, Trump got very little accomplished due to how bad a President he is, which also mitigated the damage he could do. When I'm picking between two people I think are both deeply unsuited to the office, I'm certainly not voting for the socialist.
One of them has been rhetorically aiding and abetting white supremacists - the worst and most dangerous group to Americans, by far, in American history. Canadian/northern European style socialism isn't even in the same ballpark as far as actual harm to Americans in terms of actual history. Canada is doing fine. So is most of Northern Europe. If you think the latter is a greater threat to Americans than white supremacism, you're either highly ignorant of history or highly tolerant of white supremacism.

I think it's reasonable to oppose that type of socialism, by the way. But not at the expense of aiding and abetting white supremacists.
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  #146  
Old 02-21-2019, 10:09 AM
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I feel the same way, especially once you add in all his other faults. Someone even more extreme to the left than Sanders would make me at least think twice about not supporting a genuinely moderate GOP candidate, but not Individual 1.
  #147  
Old 02-21-2019, 10:22 AM
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And also because not enough black voters turned out to vote the way they did for Obama. Which is likely to be even more the case with Sanders - he is also white, equally un-charismatic, and anti-Semitic attitudes among blacks are unpleasantly common.

Plus, we've run the numbers on his various proposals. He's Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, except not pretty.

It would be nice if we could just raise taxes on somebody else and all our problems go away, but TANSTAAFL.

Regards,
Shodan
Excuse me..."We've" run the numbers? You actually work at taxfoundation.org, or did you have a mouse in your pocket when you typed that?

A random cite is not going to handwave away the very real problems that unregulated, unrestrained capitalism that is a toothpick away from robber-baronism have brought to this nation. I'll see your TANSTAAFL and raise you a No Man Is An Island.

And no, I'm not in Bernie's camp as yet.
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  #148  
Old 02-21-2019, 10:33 AM
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none of the polls really matter now because Trump has not started flinging all kinds of mud at whoever the nominee ends up. You can be certain he has all kinds of stuff lined up ready to throw out there and truth or facts won't matter.
  #149  
Old 02-21-2019, 10:48 AM
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... a lot of the doomsaying about Trump has never happened because there are many institutions that have proven resilient to his behavior. I know what I'm getting with Trump. Even two years of full Republican control of congress, Trump got very little accomplished due to how bad a President he is, which also mitigated the damage he could do. When I'm picking between two people I think are both deeply unsuited to the office, I'm certainly not voting for the socialist.
So let me get this right.

ou are not worried about Trump because he, having had majorities in both Senate and the House and a conservative Judiciary, can't accomplish much. But a President Sanders, dealing with a vary likely still GOP majority Senate, many Dems who are not hardcore progressives, a predictable backslide in the House, and a conservative Judiciary ... WOULD be able to drive through a hard left socialist agenda?

S'alright.
  #150  
Old 02-21-2019, 10:51 AM
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Bernie is pro-vaccination and anti-fracking, which means he's pro-science.
Plenty of creationists and climate change deniers are pro vaccination. Does that make them pro-science, too?

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Why are you demanding that the heavily populated Northeast hew to nuclear power in a post-Fukushima world?
So you're anti-science as well. Got it.

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And why is it so important that no one even know if they're eating GMO's? What are you afraid of?
I'm not afraid; you (and Sanders) are. GMO foods are highly tested and safe. There's no reason label them. If one thinks there's enough difference between GMO and non-GMO foods that they need to be labeled then they are anti-science.

If I had to choose between Trump and Sanders I'd probably vote third party. Trump is a narcissistic, incompetent moron but once he is (thankfully) out of office I believe we can repair most of the damage he's done (in part because he's too incompetent to get stuff done). In the areas where I disagree strongly with Sanders (like his anti-science positions) I'm concerned he could set us back in ways that will take a long time to repair.
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