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Old 02-28-2019, 09:23 PM
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Cohen's warning


Almost lost in all the meat Cohen has tossed out in his testimony was the warning that if trump loses in 2020 that he will not go peacefully. Most folks are postulating a scenario in which there is a "normal" election, which he loses and then refuses to surrender power, at which point he is escorted from the Oval Office kicking and screaming "fake news". Well, there is another, more ominous, scenario in which trumpees disrupt the election itself, then use that very disruption to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the results. Then, of course, there is also the Riechstag fire scenario. Or a competent MagaBomber. I can think of half a dozen ways that could be pulled off.

If half of what Cohen says is true, trump makes Richard Nixon seem a saint by comparison. What do people think?

The question isn't: "Are you paranoid?" The question is: "Are you paranoid enough?"
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Old 02-28-2019, 09:44 PM
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Trump already makes Nixon look like a saint just based off the shit we've all seen him do for decades.
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Old 02-28-2019, 09:46 PM
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I prefer to believe the Marines guarding the Whitehouse might take one for the team and eliminate any foolishness taking place.
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Old 02-28-2019, 09:48 PM
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Whether he loses normally or abnormally, the Secret Service agents would drag him out of the Oval Office by 12 noon on Inauguration Day if he's not out of his own accord. What difference does normal vs. abnormal election outcome make?
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Old 02-28-2019, 10:23 PM
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Whether he loses normally or abnormally, the Secret Service agents would drag him out of the Oval Office by 12 noon on Inauguration Day if he's not out of his own accord. What difference does normal vs. abnormal election outcome make?
Maybe so, but I think the threat to cast doubt on the legitimacy of an election and to incite violent backlash, such as he suggested when he appeared to be losing in the polls in 2016, is a threat to take seriously.

I think what Cohen and those who have some knowledge of Trump are trying to tell us is that Trump thinks like an authoritarian kleptocrat, and he will do whatever he can think of to survive.
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Old 02-28-2019, 10:26 PM
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Originally Posted by E-DUB View Post
Almost lost in all the meat Cohen has tossed out in his testimony was the warning that if trump loses in 2020 that he will not go peacefully. Most folks are postulating a scenario in which there is a "normal" election, which he loses and then refuses to surrender power, at which point he is escorted from the Oval Office kicking and screaming "fake news". Well, there is another, more ominous, scenario in which trumpees disrupt the election itself, then use that very disruption to cast doubt on the legitimacy of the results. Then, of course, there is also the Riechstag fire scenario. Or a competent MagaBomber. I can think of half a dozen ways that could be pulled off.

If half of what Cohen says is true, trump makes Richard Nixon seem a saint by comparison. What do people think?

The question isn't: "Are you paranoid?" The question is: "Are you paranoid enough?"
I think its ridiculous garbage right up there with "Trump is Hitler".
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Old 02-28-2019, 10:36 PM
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Trump isn't smart enough to pull off a coup. I doubt he's smart enough to hold up a liquor store successfully.

He's staying in power because he got elected legally and our system of government is following the law and propping him up. But if Trump ever tries to defy that system and rule illegally, he'll fail.

And Trump's supporters are less capable than Trump is.
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Old 02-28-2019, 10:44 PM
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Trump isn't smart enough to pull off a coup. I doubt he's smart enough to hold up a liquor store successfully.

He's staying in power because he got elected legally and our system of government is following the law and propping him up. But if Trump ever tries to defy that system and rule illegally, he'll fail.

And Trump's supporters are less capable than Trump is.
One could make the argument that he's ruling illegally now.
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Old 02-28-2019, 10:47 PM
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I don't follow politics close enough to know if what I'm saying is 100% correct, but I'm amazed at the amount of people that worked for him or were otherwise 'on his side' that have, more or less, defected. That is, they've gone from defending him no matter what to saying 'nope, he's nuts, I'm out'. Seems like every few weeks there's another one. I'm sure some of them are angry for getting fired, some, I think, just couldn't do it anymore.

It always seemed odd to me that he kept screaming 'voter fraud' after he won. Even if there were, in fact, 5 million illegal votes for Clinton, it doesn't matter now. You'd think he'd be concerned that the election could be overturned if he kept requesting it to be investigated. I know, it was a vanity thing since he lost the popular vote, but it's moot.
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Old 03-01-2019, 02:33 AM
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One could make the argument that he's ruling illegally now.
I don't understand. How could that argument be made?
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Old 03-01-2019, 04:57 AM
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If Trump refuses to go peacefully, then he can go in handcuffs if he'd like. No worries. And his supporters revolting in some violent manner? These are the guys with the backyard tiki torches and Doge Challengers. Sure the loonier ones can hurt a small number of people, but it is hardly the stuff of revolt.
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Old 03-01-2019, 05:51 AM
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Is it worth worrying about? Yes, absolutely. Is it likely to happen? No, not very. In fact, it's unlikely to happen precisely because the right people are worrying about it, and hence taking actions to prevent it.
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Old 03-01-2019, 06:13 AM
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These are the guys with the backyard tiki torches and Doge Challengers.
[obsolete internet meme]

Much Doge. Very Tiki. So Challenge.

[/oim]

As Cohen noted, Trump didn't want the job in the first place and his only motivation for trying to stay in the role would be to forestall prosecution. But the more likely prosecution is, the stronger his desire to stay may be but the greater the forces of law and public opinion will be to remove him. The Republicans may pull every trick in the book, fair and foul, to swing the next election but if Trump stays in office it will be because he was elected via the usual means.

My greater worry is the utter capitulation of Republicans in Congress who have, to an unprecedented degree, abdicated their powers as the legislative branch to check the executive. Even if Trump goes, it sets a very poor precedent that may allow future less-inept Presidents to collude [sic] with Congressional Houses controlled by the same party to pursue even greater end-runs around those intended checks.
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Old 03-01-2019, 06:44 AM
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I don't understand. How could that argument be made?
Let's start with emoluments...
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Old 03-01-2019, 07:30 AM
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Trump isn't smart enough to pull off a coup. I doubt he's smart enough to hold up a liquor store successfully.

He's staying in power because he got elected legally and our system of government is following the law and propping him up. But if Trump ever tries to defy that system and rule illegally, he'll fail.

And Trump's supporters are less capable than Trump is.
The concern isn't whether or not he's smart enough to pull it off, it's whether or not he's pissed enough to try it.
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Old 03-01-2019, 07:31 AM
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The election results are certified in a joint session of Congress. I can see McConnell refusing to accept the result of a Democratic victory and somehow prevent the election from being certified.
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Old 03-01-2019, 07:34 AM
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It's a tough argument to make. People with working eyes and brains can see Trump's attacks on the legitimacy of the media and his "What you are seeing isn't what you should be believing" rhetoric is straight out of the autocrat playbook. And yet the media is still able to say critical things of the president every single day without getting dragged off to the camps, and reporters are able to report the truth without being forced to issue retractions under duress. The problem, then, is that Trump supporters can dismiss any warnings about how Trump is behaving like an autocrat. "See," they'll say as they point to a scathing NYT article, "The system still works fine. Quit your bitching."

Of course that's true, we're not living under an all powerful despot. However, we used to run away from anything remotely resembling those power structures, and now we're seeing how close we can get and still have the workings of democracy function as normal. Why anyone is OK with this, I can't fathom.

And so I think it will go with Trump's transition of power. Trump will, of course, leave office in the end, and the next president will assume power and everything will go on like normal. But Trump and his die hard supporters won't accept it and will continue to rabble rouse on the internet for years, inching us closer to an acceptance of autocracy that we're not supposed to tolerate. And at some point, maybe, we'll show the world that we're not that special, as we tiptoe over that line without realizing it.
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Old 03-01-2019, 07:59 AM
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The concern isn't whether or not he's smart enough to pull it off, it's whether or not he's pissed enough to try it.
Or scared and desperate enough. Prosecutors will be coming after him in full force once he's lost the protection of the office.

But yeah, he's going to spend his remaining days (when he's not in court) bitching furiously on his nighttime Fox News show about how the Deep State kept undermining all the fantastic things he was doing for the real patriots of the country.
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Old 03-01-2019, 08:09 AM
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Fake Election!!!
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Old 03-01-2019, 08:46 AM
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One could make the argument that he's ruling illegally now.
One could make the argument that he is really just a bunch of squirrels in a suit.

Doesn't make the argument valid.
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Old 03-01-2019, 09:08 AM
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One could make the argument that he's ruling illegally now.
One would be wrong. Trump is ruling poorly but he appears to be ruling legally. (I'll grant that there is evidence that he has committed some crimes but that falls outside of his legal authority as President and we have a system to hold him accountable for breaking laws.)
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Old 03-01-2019, 09:17 AM
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How does thump deal with situations, questions, directives, etc., that he doesn't like? He ignores them. Except when he calls them "FAKE!" first, and then ignores them.

So let's imagine what this would look like: election returns come in in Nov 2020 and show that a Democrat has won the popular vote and the electoral college. I don't know at what point on the timeline former defeated presidents have started to pack up, but let's say thump (if he followed past examples, which he likely WON'T) is expected to vacate the family quarters and the Oval Office by January 15-ish.

What would it look like if he simply ignored that deadline? He has virtually ALWAYS ignored deadlines, even (or especially) deadlines that he himself has set. So, let's say that Jan 1 comes and he hasn't directed anyone to start packing up the family's personal belongings. Then Jan 8, and still nothing.

Probably Melania would have vacated on her own back to New York City, unless he made some kind of deal with her to stick around for show.

Jan 15 comes and goes. The whole country is buzzing about thump's inaction and he's happy as a pig in shit (apologies to pigs) for being on the front page of every newspaper in the world. "Will he or won't he? Will he go quietly?" Popcorn sales soar.

What if he just ignores the fact that he is supposed to move out? I'm looking for some serious speculation here, not "the Marines storm the OO and carry him out in a burlap sack," as much as I'd like to see that.

In the past when thump has ignored deadlines, no one does anything. The deadlines just fade away. What, practically speaking, in real-world terms, would happen if thump simply failed to take steps to move out of the White House, or simply delayed and delayed? Who's gonna MAKE him move? No one MAKES him do anything. I do not seem him being defiant-- that's not his style. I can see him employing a boatload of inertia, such that the new president and family might not move into the White House for a few months. Then when he finally does leave, he can declare himself a winner. "I left on MY terms!"

Too far-fetched? Just look at his past behavior. And the country's reaction to it. He gets away with just about everything he does.

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The election results are certified in a joint session of Congress. I can see McConnell refusing to accept the result of a Democratic victory and somehow prevent the election from being certified.
I can absolutely see this.
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Last edited by ThelmaLou; 03-01-2019 at 09:20 AM.
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Old 03-01-2019, 09:21 AM
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What if he just ignores the fact that he is supposed to move out? I'm looking for some serious speculation here, not "the Marines storm the OO and carry him out in a burlap sack," as much as I'd like to see that.

But that IS the serious speculation. The ex-President is required by law to leave the White House the moment he is no longer President. Which is 12 o'clock noon on Inauguration Day. In all reasonable likelihood Secret Service will be standing outside the Oval Office, watching the clock, and when it's noon, they will tell him politely, once, to leave the premises on his own terms, and when or if he doesn't, they will each grab an appendage and drag him out.
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Old 03-01-2019, 09:30 AM
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One would be wrong. Trump is ruling poorly but he appears to be ruling legally. (I'll grant that there is evidence that he has committed some crimes but that falls outside of his legal authority as President and we have a system to hold him accountable for breaking laws.)
I would submit that he's ruling mostly legally, but not completely. Firstly, there are very real and valid questions about the legitimacy of the process that enabled him to get elected. Consider the Comey memo, for instance, which was an extraordinary step when you think about it. And while I've actually understood Comey's rationale and defended his character and motives to some degree, it's the fact that he felt compelled to act in an illegitimate manner as a civil servant to safeguard the Department of Justice against the appearances of illegitimacy and impropriety, which was the result of an extraordinarily, essentially unprecedented political witch hunt that was orchestrated by the legislative majority at that time.

But as I said, we can also consider his behavior in office, which is doing considerable damage to the office - damage that will be long-lasting and impact the presidency and how we view its legitimacy for years to come, regardless of who's president. We're being blinded to this reality on a near daily basis.
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Old 03-01-2019, 09:32 AM
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Trump would have to find minions (I think we can use that term in this context) to do it for him. What kind of people would think they can do Trump's underhanded bidding and not get caught like the others? Who thinks that if they're caught, Trump will do anything but throw them under the bus? The fact that many Republicans support him with words and votes doesn't mean they're ready to end up like Manafort, Cohen or Stone. He may find such people but they'll be the covert operative equivalent of Volkssturm militiamen in 1945.
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Old 03-01-2019, 09:40 AM
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But that IS the serious speculation. The ex-President is required by law to leave the White House the moment he is no longer President. Which is 12 o'clock noon on Inauguration Day. In all reasonable likelihood Secret Service will be standing outside the Oval Office, watching the clock, and when it's noon, they will tell him politely, once, to leave the premises on his own terms, and when or if he doesn't, they will each grab an appendage and drag him out.
To answer your original question, I think a lot of what happens rides on what happens economically and politically over the next 1-2 years, which is stating the obvious.

What's sometimes less obvious is how someone like Trump could deliver fatal doses of toxicity to our political system - even if he's defeated and eventually agrees to leave office, or even if he's taken out by the Secret Service and the military.

Obviously if the economy is in tatters and the country blames all of Trump and the GOP for our national misery, what happens on January 20, 2021 is going to be anticlimactic. But suppose we have an election with circumstances as they are now, with a majority of the country thinking that Trump the man is a utter and total scumbag but that the country itself has managed to do not too badly during his time in office? What if a slight majority of the country believes it's more important to have a president of better character in office than it is to have a president who isn't destroying the economy (just so we're clear, I get that these two things aren't necessarily connected - but many voters don't). What if, say, Kamala Harris or some other Democrat wins a tight election with 280-something electoral college 'points', and what if Trump claims voter fraud? Worse, what if foreign hackers are successful in creating some mischief, just enough to sow some doubt?
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Old 03-01-2019, 09:57 AM
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Trump doesn't like losing, and the easiest way to avoid losing is to avoid situations in which you might lose. He's not going to put himself in a spot of being dragged out of the White House, because he'll have a year to lay the groundwork to prevent that from happening. He's not smart, necessarily, but he has a mob boss's instincts for recruiting henchmen and inspiring absolute loyalty. He'd be spending the year leading up to the election making sure he's only surrounded by the absolutely most loyal Secret Service agents and Marines. He'd have a good sense for whether he could get them on his side or not, and he wouldn't defy the election results unless he was confident that he's surrounded by people who will protect him. I don't know whether the majority of law enforcement and armed services are more loyal to the abstract idea of the electoral college, or to Trump, but it makes me nervous to have to gamble on it.
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Old 03-01-2019, 10:01 AM
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But that IS the serious speculation. The ex-President is required by law to leave the White House the moment he is no longer President. Which is 12 o'clock noon on Inauguration Day. In all reasonable likelihood Secret Service will be standing outside the Oval Office, watching the clock, and when it's noon, they will tell him politely, once, to leave the premises on his own terms, and when or if he doesn't, they will each grab an appendage and drag him out.
Has anyone once enforced the LAW on DJT? Ever? In his whole life? He has never given a rat's ass about "The Law." He believes that laws don't apply to him. And his lifelong experience has supported this belief. I don't see how this would be any different. I cannot see him being physically removed from the White House.

Now, something I CAN see... if a Democrat wins in November 2020, I can see thump vacating the White House the very next day in a ginormous tantrum. And I can see him ordering everything he installed in the OO and in the family quarters to be removed and hauled off to a dump or maybe burned on the WH lawn (okay, probably not that). Gold curtains, gold bathroom fixtures, etc. I can definitely see that. But I can't see him leaving quietly and with dignity like a grown-up with class.
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Old 03-01-2019, 10:12 AM
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So let's imagine what this would look like: election returns come in in Nov 2020 and show that a Democrat has won the popular vote and the electoral college. I don't know at what point on the timeline former defeated presidents have started to pack up, but let's say thump (if he followed past examples, which he likely WON'T) is expected to vacate the family quarters and the Oval Office by January 15-ish.

What would it look like if he simply ignored that deadline? He has virtually ALWAYS ignored deadlines, even (or especially) deadlines that he himself has set. So, let's say that Jan 1 comes and he hasn't directed anyone to start packing up the family's personal belongings. Then Jan 8, and still nothing.

Probably Melania would have vacated on her own back to New York City, unless he made some kind of deal with her to stick around for show.

Jan 15 comes and goes. The whole country is buzzing about thump's inaction and he's happy as a pig in shit (apologies to pigs) for being on the front page of every newspaper in the world. "Will he or won't he? Will he go quietly?" Popcorn sales soar.

What if he just ignores the fact that he is supposed to move out? I'm looking for some serious speculation here, not "the Marines storm the OO and carry him out in a burlap sack," as much as I'd like to see that.

In the past when thump has ignored deadlines, no one does anything. The deadlines just fade away. What, practically speaking, in real-world terms, would happen if thump simply failed to take steps to move out of the White House, or simply delayed and delayed? Who's gonna MAKE him move? No one MAKES him do anything. I do not seem him being defiant-- that's not his style. I can see him employing a boatload of inertia, such that the new president and family might not move into the White House for a few months. Then when he finally does leave, he can declare himself a winner. "I left on MY terms!"

Too far-fetched? Just look at his past behavior. And the country's reaction to it. He gets away with just about everything he does.
I don't remember any president moving out before Jan 20. Inauguration Day is the busiest day for the Chief Usher of the White House and his crew. The minute the current and future presidents depart for the Capitol, all of the current president's belongings are packed up and moved out. Then the new president's stuff is all moved in and by the time he returns for the Inaugural Parade, everything is all set.

That being said, I can see Donald being classless and skipping the Inauguration altogether, and at the stroke of noon being hustled out. It will make the Chief Usher's job a lot more difficult, but they will do it.
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Old 03-01-2019, 10:15 AM
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Has anyone once enforced the LAW on DJT? Ever? In his whole life? He has never given a rat's ass about "The Law." He believes that laws don't apply to him. And his lifelong experience has supported this belief. I don't see how this would be any different. I cannot see him being physically removed from the White House.
Lots of civil cases, plus Donald and Fred getting dragged in for housing discrimination. But mostly what he does is bully and intimidate where he can, and settle quietly without admitting guilt (and often without paying anyway) where he can't. Has he even paid off the Trump University plaintiffs yet?
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Old 03-01-2019, 10:16 AM
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How does thump deal with situations, questions, directives, etc., that he doesn't like? He ignores them. Except when he calls them "FAKE!" first, and then ignores them.

So let's imagine what this would look like: election returns come in in Nov 2020 and show that a Democrat has won the popular vote and the electoral college. I don't know at what point on the timeline former defeated presidents have started to pack up, but let's say thump (if he followed past examples, which he likely WON'T) is expected to vacate the family quarters and the Oval Office by January 15-ish.

What would it look like if he simply ignored that deadline? He has virtually ALWAYS ignored deadlines, even (or especially) deadlines that he himself has set. So, let's say that Jan 1 comes and he hasn't directed anyone to start packing up the family's personal belongings. Then Jan 8, and still nothing.

Probably Melania would have vacated on her own back to New York City, unless he made some kind of deal with her to stick around for show.

Jan 15 comes and goes. The whole country is buzzing about thump's inaction and he's happy as a pig in shit (apologies to pigs) for being on the front page of every newspaper in the world. "Will he or won't he? Will he go quietly?" Popcorn sales soar.

What if he just ignores the fact that he is supposed to move out? I'm looking for some serious speculation here, not "the Marines storm the OO and carry him out in a burlap sack," as much as I'd like to see that.

In the past when thump has ignored deadlines, no one does anything. The deadlines just fade away. What, practically speaking, in real-world terms, would happen if thump simply failed to take steps to move out of the White House, or simply delayed and delayed? Who's gonna MAKE him move? No one MAKES him do anything. I do not seem him being defiant-- that's not his style. I can see him employing a boatload of inertia, such that the new president and family might not move into the White House for a few months. Then when he finally does leave, he can declare himself a winner. "I left on MY terms!"
.
The family doesn't pack up any stuff before Jan. 20, or after for that matter. On inauguration day, White House staff/movers pack up the exiting family's things, re-paint, re-carpet, remove/add walls, etc. to match the new family's needs, then they move the new stuff in. At noon, he's no longer president, and he no longer has the same military powers, he is no longer a resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Whether the movers will have a forwarding address to drop his stuff off at, or they put it in storage because of his petulance, I have no idea. But at noon on January 20, he's out, no matter how much he kicks and screams.

Now, he could hold a shit-ton of rallies between his loss in November and his exit on January 20, whipping his supporters into a raging froth, and causing all kinds of unfathomable trouble and civil disobedience, and he could scream "Rigged!" and "Fixed!" and "Fake!" but no amount of screaming and stomping his feet or ignoring The Law or Sean Hannity diatribes or anything else will stop him from being removed from office on January 20, 2021 (if he loses the election).
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Old 03-01-2019, 10:24 AM
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...
Now, he could hold a shit-ton of rallies between his loss in November and his exit on January 20, whipping his supporters into a raging froth, and causing all kinds of unfathomable trouble and civil disobedience...
Followed by crying internet videos when they learn that the police are looking for them.
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Old 03-01-2019, 10:28 AM
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The White House is a non-issue. Living in the White House does not make you President. If Trump loses the 2020 election (or is impeached) he will cease to be President on a certain date and somebody else will be President. If Trump is still living in the White House after that, he'll be doing so as a guest. He'll no longer have any authority beyond choosing what he wants for breakfast. He can't issue executive orders and declare national emergencies or veto laws. He'll revert back to being an annoyance rather than a serious problem. If Fox wants to pay him to whine on TV, so what? We already have dozens of people doing that.
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Old 03-01-2019, 10:30 AM
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What if he just ignores the fact that he is supposed to move out? I'm looking for some serious speculation here, not "the Marines storm the OO and carry him out in a burlap sack," as much as I'd like to see that.
When January 20th rolls around there will be a new president who controls the whitehouse. As to what happens to a reluctant Trump that will depend on what the incoming president decides. If he/she calls for Marines to storm the OO and carry him out in a burlap sack, then that is what will happen. If instead he/she decides simply to wait until Trump realizes he is out of diet coke. That is what will happen.

I think the worst case scenario is that Trump makes a call to his followers to take to the streets to keep him in power like he's seen all of his dictator idols do. Then in various locations a few dozen guys get together and wave their guns around but soon realize that noone else is bothering to show up, try to slink away before their boss sees them on youtube.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 03-01-2019 at 10:31 AM.
  #35  
Old 03-01-2019, 10:41 AM
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The election results are certified in a joint session of Congress. I can see McConnell refusing to accept the result of a Democratic victory and somehow prevent the election from being certified.
I believe (on cursory examination of past certifications) that the 2020 election will be certified by the congress which convenes on 3 January 2021. Since the Senate landscape in 2020 is not especially favorable to the Republicans ó they will be defending 21 seats to the Democrats' 12 ó it may well be Schumer who presides over the that august body.

(Yes, I know that the GOP's Senate success in 2018 suggests a harder road for the Democrats than the raw 21/12 split would indicate. On the other hand, CFSG's coattails may well be so toxic by that time that we see a few Republican Senators discovering a sudden need to spend more time with their families.)
  #36  
Old 03-01-2019, 10:43 AM
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When January 20th rolls around there will be a new president who controls the whitehouse. As to what happens to a reluctant Trump that will depend on what the incoming president decides. If he/she calls for Marines to storm the OO and carry him out in a burlap sack, then that is what will happen. If instead he/she decides simply to wait until Trump realizes he is out of diet coke. That is what will happen.
I can see the latter happening.

Quote:
I think the worst case scenario is that Trump makes a call to his followers to take to the streets to keep him in power like he's seen all of his dictator idols do. Then in various locations a few dozen guys get together and wave their guns around but soon realize that noone else is bothering to show up, try to slink away before their boss sees them on youtube.
Maybe this, but thump will not want to take a chance on being seen as a loser.


Thanks to all who played for humoring me on the "will he or won't he?" thing. Geez, we're now officially a banana republic.
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Old 03-01-2019, 11:17 AM
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Maybe this, but thump will not want to take a chance on being seen as a loser.
.
The question will be the extent to which his ego makes him believe his own propaganda.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 03-01-2019 at 11:17 AM.
  #38  
Old 03-01-2019, 11:20 AM
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The election results are certified in a joint session of Congress. I can see McConnell refusing to accept the result of a Democratic victory and somehow prevent the election from being certified.
Federal law lists a whole bunch of stuff about how Congress can challenge an electoral vote.

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no electoral vote or votes from any State which shall have been regularly given by electors whose appointment has been lawfully certified to according to section 6 of this title from which but one return has been received shall be rejected, but the two Houses concurrently may reject the vote or votes when they agree that such vote or votes have not been so regularly given by electors whose appointment has been so certified.
IANA constitutional expert but I take that to mean that the only way ballots can be thrown out is if BOTH the House and Senate agree.

And don't forget that the joint session will be of the new Congress that's elected in 2020. Republicans will be defending 22 Senate seats up for reelection, so if McConnell is still majority leader, it means the Republicans have held the Senate, which probably means that Trump won a sizable number of those 22 states, as well.
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Old 03-01-2019, 11:21 AM
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I believe (on cursory examination of past certifications) that the 2020 election will be certified by the congress which convenes on 3 January 2021. Since the Senate landscape in 2020 is not especially favorable to the Republicans ó they will be defending 21 seats to the Democrats' 12 ó it may well be Schumer who presides over the that august body.
IIRC, on Jan. 3, the new Congress hasn't taken office yet so it would still be a 53-47 Republican majority. I could see a substantial number of Republican senators voting with the blues on this one, though.
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Old 03-01-2019, 11:23 AM
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Has anyone once enforced the LAW on DJT? Ever? In his whole life? He has never given a rat's ass about "The Law." He believes that laws don't apply to him. And his lifelong experience has supported this belief. I don't see how this would be any different.
Secret Service is as independent an entity in the vicinity that there is. They don't care for Trump's opinions or personal history; he can think what he likes in his mind as he is being toted out by five agents; one for each appendage and one providing support for his verterbrae and neck.

You seem to be going well out of your way to entertain the idea of Trump not leaving the White House for......idk, a satisfying thought?
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Old 03-01-2019, 11:27 AM
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...You seem to be going well out of your way to entertain the idea of Trump not leaving the White House for......idk, a satisfying thought?
Nothing complicated. I'm just idly whiling away some time...
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  #42  
Old 03-01-2019, 11:30 AM
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I think its ridiculous garbage right up there with "Trump is Hitler".
I'm with you. I don't know who dreams up these scenarios. Bill Maher has an excuse of being perpetually high. Everyone else, sheer paranoia. I chalk it up to TDS. Maybe it's time to have a telethon for this insidious affliction.
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Old 03-01-2019, 11:43 AM
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The McConnell speculation is the only one I see as having any chance of having any real effect on the election or the nation, and it’s not even ultimately up to Trump.

I’ve asked before, and I’ll ask again: suppose Trump refuses to vacate the presidency. What legitimate and likely means does he have to force anyone anywhere in DC to pay the least bit attention to anything he wants? I don’t see any. He refuses to leave. That means he has what kind of power and authority? None, as far as I can tell.
  #44  
Old 03-01-2019, 12:00 PM
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Trump will leave saying he has accomplished more than any President in history. He will also say that he wants to spend more time with his family. Melania will be put on suicide watch.
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Old 03-01-2019, 12:52 PM
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About 5% chance of Trump trying. Exactly 0.0% chance of it working.
  #46  
Old 03-01-2019, 01:05 PM
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I think it's more likely that, the day after losing the election, Individual 1 essentially quits -- leaves D.C., cancels any remaining appointments and stops performing anything remotely resembling presidential duties. He launches a 10-week temper tantrum from Mar a Lago, whining about election fraud, blaming his advisors and bragging about the greatness of his presidency.

And nobody gives a shit.
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Old 03-01-2019, 01:33 PM
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People said that Presidents Bush and Obama wouldn't leave after their terms in office, too.

IOW, the idea is nonsense.
  #48  
Old 03-01-2019, 01:34 PM
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I can't see any way Trump holds on to power illegitimately. What is he going to do, go on TV and say, "The election results are FAKE because: Argle. Gargle. Bargle. GOO!" Only the dipshits will take him seriously, just like now, only his schtick will be worn that much thinner by then.

Can he inspire riots? I dunno, but this country has endured major riots. It has endured a civil war even, though I seriously doubt Trump has the skills to pull a Jefferson Davis.

Nope, come inauguration day, Trump is a gone daddy. I think Cohen is just trying to inflate his importance with this line. "There is a terrible crisis! I am the only one who can protect us!" Wonder where he learned that one?
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Old 03-01-2019, 02:16 PM
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Trump won't simply refuse to leave, should he lose but not vacate on Jan 20th, it will be because either the election result or the requirement to leave is still being challenged in court. I've no idea how likely that is, but if he's not conceded defeat, and the Supreme Court hasn't ruled that he's defeated and must leave, then no-one's going to drag him out.
  #50  
Old 03-01-2019, 02:57 PM
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Trump won't simply refuse to leave, should he lose but not vacate on Jan 20th, it will be because either the election result or the requirement to leave is still being challenged in court. I've no idea how likely that is, but if he's not conceded defeat, and the Supreme Court hasn't ruled that he's defeated and must leave, then no-one's going to drag him out.
The 2000 election was insanely close, yet the SCOTUS managed to decide it before New Years Day. How big a fustercluck* do you think 2020 is going to be for it not to be settled by Jan. 20.

Whether or not he concedes is irrelevant.


*Thanks, The Punisher
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