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Old 03-28-2019, 12:49 AM
nelliebly is offline
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Trump's latest effort to overturn the ACA and the 2020 election


As everyone knows by now, the DOJ has announced it endorses the decision of the Texas judge who ruled that the ACA is unconstitutional. How is Trump's determination to do away entirely with Obamacare, including the coverage for pre-existing conditions and for coverage of adult children under 26, likely to affect the 2020 election? I assume this will take some time to work its way to SCOTUS, but regardless of how this plays out, the Dems are already trying to make political hay with it.

As far as I know, Trump has never unveiled his own healthcare plan, and after some bruising defeats, I can't imagine the GOP is eager to try yet again to craft a plan that will will pass muster with the voters. Surely certain defeat in the House would dampen their enthusiasm even more. His core is unlikely to budge, but how will his support for completely overturning Obamacare likely to affect his chances of reelection, if at all?
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Old 03-28-2019, 12:55 AM
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People who don't support him will continue to fail to do so. Some of those who do support him might change their minds if they or their families suffer enough.
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Old 03-28-2019, 09:00 AM
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Conservatives who get health care through the ACA will probably still support him or invent some lie that absolves the Republicans.

However democrats who get ACA help will be more motivated to vote against trump. More motivated to show up.

The real power is in poor people. Poor people don't vote and if the medicaid retraction happens, then millions of poor people may feel motivated to actually vote.
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Old 03-28-2019, 07:24 PM
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Well, it's worth reiterating that this lawsuit is likelier than not to not go anywhere; at some point, us ACA proponents just get used to bad faith obviously bullshit legal assaults on the law (hello King v. Burwell), but even *conservative* opponents of the law largely believe this latest suit is nuts. In a sane, rational world, something this spurious would get nowhere near SCOTUS since the case itself is just so stupid. Given that we don't live in that world, maybe this suit will get there, or maybe it won't.

I don't know precisely how it plays politically. Republicans generally don't want to talk about healthcare anymore now that voters realize that the GOP replace agenda is nuts, unpopular, and without any constituency beyond the Wall Street Journal and Reason. And by pursuing ACA repeal in such bare knuckle ways - where the administration begs the Courts to do what it couldn't get done through Congress - Trump and his cronies are certainly gaslighting Democrats in such a way that Dems will be motivated like crazy to turn out in 2020.

I have to assume that Trump believes he can just lie his way out of the unpopular facts of his healthcare agenda in the same way that he did in 2016. But that didn't work in the midterms.

Last edited by 2ManyTacos; 03-28-2019 at 07:24 PM.
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Old 03-29-2019, 08:30 AM
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I'm honestly confused about this from an electoral point of view. According to Kaiser's polling the ACA is getting significantly more popular with all cohorts except hardcore republicans.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...se-its-appeal/

Even Republicans in that sample gained +1 in net ACA positive between 2016 and 2019. Young and old, rich and poor, regardless of race and gender ACA's net approval is up by about at average of 15% over the three years.

Yes, Trump is all about his base and motivating them. But that's really a play for primaries and I don't think he'll face any form of real challenge there. Is he expecting something like this to motivate his base so much that 35-40% becomes 50%+ on E-day?
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Old 03-29-2019, 09:03 AM
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Trump keeps having flashbacks to being mocked at the 2011 White House Correspondent's dinner and feels a compelling need to tear down another piece of Obama's legacy, kind of like how Batman keeps having flashbacks to his parents' murder and feels a compelling need to beat up another criminal.
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Old 03-29-2019, 11:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance View Post
I'm honestly confused about this from an electoral point of view. According to Kaiser's polling the ACA is getting significantly more popular with all cohorts except hardcore republicans.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...se-its-appeal/

Even Republicans in that sample gained +1 in net ACA positive between 2016 and 2019. Young and old, rich and poor, regardless of race and gender ACA's net approval is up by about at average of 15% over the three years.

Yes, Trump is all about his base and motivating them. But that's really a play for primaries and I don't think he'll face any form of real challenge there. Is he expecting something like this to motivate his base so much that 35-40% becomes 50%+ on E-day?
It's worth noting that a more-than-trivial percentage of Americans - and they appear to trend poor - think that "Obamacare" and "ACA" are two entirely different things.
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Old 03-29-2019, 01:48 PM
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I don't think that this will go anywhere and I think that is what Trump (and certainly Republicans) want. If this gets held up by the courts, then they can say that they tried to rid us of the scourge of Obamacare but evil radical Liberals, like Roberts, in the supreme court stopped us. Had they not done so everyone would have had the best healthcare and at the cheapest cost. If only you elect Trump to another term so he can appoint one more justice we could succeed.

Now if the lawsuit actually succeeds they are in trouble. But as long as the courts keep them from facing the consequences of their policies its just like any other of the 100 failed attempts to repeal Obamacare . It riles up their base prove that they are still fighting the good fight, but doesn't risk actually suceeeding.
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Old 03-29-2019, 03:31 PM
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It's simply a distraction from the Mueller report. Unindicted co-conspirator Donald John Trump wants to rally support in order to suppress discussion of the report. As they've realized their argument that the report exonerates him and thus should not be released isn't holding water even among the zombiest of Trumpists, they need to change the subject quickly.
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Old 03-29-2019, 07:05 PM
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I've sent my Representative a message that when it comes to the ACA, I will be a single-issue voter.

The last time I considered myself to be a single-issue voter was 1972, and the issue was Vietnam.
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Old 03-29-2019, 07:49 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2ManyTacos View Post
Republicans generally don't want to talk about healthcare anymore now that voters realize that the GOP replace agenda is nuts, unpopular, and without any constituency beyond the Wall Street Journal and Reason.
People have figured out that the GOP "replacement" is "Don't get sick -- if you do get sick, die quickly."
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Old 03-29-2019, 08:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance View Post
I'm honestly confused about this from an electoral point of view. According to Kaiser's polling the ACA is getting significantly more popular with all cohorts except hardcore republicans.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...se-its-appeal/

Even Republicans in that sample gained +1 in net ACA positive between 2016 and 2019. Young and old, rich and poor, regardless of race and gender ACA's net approval is up by about at average of 15% over the three years.

Yes, Trump is all about his base and motivating them. But that's really a play for primaries and I don't think he'll face any form of real challenge there. Is he expecting something like this to motivate his base so much that 35-40% becomes 50%+ on E-day?

There's a very good chance that That Idiot Trump is committing the biggest error a partisan can make: believing his own bullshit. He's been talking about how everything is a "disaster", and getting applause for it at his rallies, and now, he probably really believes that everything actually is a disaster.
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Old 03-30-2019, 08:36 AM
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And he uses this to dis McCain one more time
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Old 03-30-2019, 04:13 PM
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I don't know. Two more troglodytes on SCOTUS could just be the tipping point. Just hope RBG stays healthy.

Next up: Social Security. What clause in the constitution authorizes that. Minimum wage laws? Taft-Hartley, as flawed as it is? Who knows where they could go.
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