View Poll Results: Economy's effect in 2020 election
Strong economic boom; Trump gets reelected 25 53.19%
Severe economic recession; Trump is defeated 22 46.81%
Voters: 47. You may not vote on this poll

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  #1  
Old 04-04-2019, 10:55 AM
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Economic recession and Trump defeat, or economic boom and Trump reelection?


The state of the economy is usually one of the biggest factors in whether an incumbent president gets reelected or not. Would you rather that there be a severe economic recession (like Great Recession or even Great Depression levels) and Trump be defeated, or an economic boom (say, 2x stronger than now) and Trump gets reelected?
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Old 04-04-2019, 10:57 AM
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Edit: Wanted to edit the poll question but can't - anyway, this is about preference and what one would want, not what will actually happen.
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Old 04-04-2019, 11:11 AM
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If Trump gets re-elected, we will almost surely miss the window for dealing with global warming.

Call me single-issue, but booms and busts come and go; three recessions have happened during my adult life that were each, at the time, the worst recession since the Great Depression, yet here we are. But the effects of global warming will last for lifetimes.
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Old 04-04-2019, 11:14 AM
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Not a hard question for me to answer, but I'll be interested in the responses from others.
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Old 04-04-2019, 11:40 AM
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Old 04-04-2019, 11:49 AM
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I think it is a poorly thought out question. If we had any other President than Trump during this economic expansion, he (or she) would have solid approval ratings. To be stuck at 41% during "the best economy ever" is an embarrassment.

If there's a recession, Trump is gone for sure. But even if the good times persist, he has no better than a 50/50 chance of being reelected.
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Old 04-04-2019, 11:54 AM
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I always prefer a strong economy to a recession. Other than the content of news programs, whoever is in the White House actually has very, very little impact upon my personal life. It is the results that matter.
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Old 04-04-2019, 11:55 AM
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If Trump gets re-elected, we will almost surely miss the window for dealing with global warming.

Call me single-issue, but booms and busts come and go; three recessions have happened during my adult life that were each, at the time, the worst recession since the Great Depression, yet here we are. But the effects of global warming will last for lifetimes.
A recession would certainly cause a drop in the emission of GHG whether Trump is re-elected or not. OTOH I am moderately sure that nothing significant is going to be done in the US about AGW no matter who is President, and that whatever does get done will be drowned out by what the Chinese and the Third World don't do.

If we have an economic boom, at least we will have more money to mitigate the effects of AGW. Poor people suffer most from disasters of all sorts, not just global warming. If the coast lands flood, the ones who die are the ones who can't move inland, and when hurricanes hit, countries with less resources suffer more than the developed world.

That doesn't necessarily mean it would be a wash between stopping AGW and getting richer overall, but as Woody Allen said
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Old 04-04-2019, 12:03 PM
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Why would anyone want a recession?

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Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
The state of the economy is usually one of the biggest factors in whether an incumbent president gets reelected or not.
Right--because most Americans are stupid, and they think that the president alone magically changes the economy immediately with a wave of the hand. They also don't realize that the negative effects of bad economic policy usually take a long time to set in--often long after the president is gone.
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Old 04-04-2019, 12:48 PM
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Would buy us a little time, at least.
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OTOH I am moderately sure that nothing significant is going to be done in the US about AGW no matter who is President,
Can't disagree, but damned if I'm giving up. We're talking about the world my son's going to live in.
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and that whatever does get done will be drowned out by what the Chinese and the Third World don't do.
China's starting from a bad position, but they're doing a lot. They've got the world's largest and most utilized high-speed rail network. They're pushing electric cars in a big way. We're not doing the first at all (thanks, all you GOP governors, for vetoing HSR in your states a decade ago because it was soshulism), and in the near term, the success of electric cars rests on one genius who's stretched way too thin.
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If we have an economic boom, at least we will have more money to mitigate the effects of AGW.
Ultimately, the effects will be beyond mitigating.
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Poor people suffer most from disasters of all sorts, not just global warming. If the coast lands flood, the ones who die are the ones who can't move inland, and when hurricanes hit, countries with less resources suffer more than the developed world.
Always good to see a conservative have concern for the poor. That concern is rarely backed by money, but still, the concern is a first step.

Last edited by RTFirefly; 04-04-2019 at 12:49 PM.
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Old 04-04-2019, 12:50 PM
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I think if it was a choice between another 4 years of Trump or great recession level losses, I think it would probably go for the recession, but it might be close. I think in terms of measurable negative effects the Recession of 2008 was probably worse than what is likely to happen with another 4 years of Trump. The problem is the effect of the Trump legacy. I doubt that RBG can last until 2024, so we are going to be looking at a strongly pro buisiness, anti-labor, anti-consumer court for a generation. Worse it will be demonstrated that the Trump method of campagining and governing (the truth doesn't matter, neither does corruption, you are only the president for those who voted for you, all actions should be directed in a partisan manner, those Americans who voted against you are the enemy and should be punished) works without repercussions, and so will be become the norm.

If its the Great Depression level then I'll just have to swallow Trump. That is an order of magnitude worse than anything that Trump is likely capable of.
  #12  
Old 04-04-2019, 01:21 PM
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I’ll vote for almost any scenario that ends “Trump is defeated.”
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Old 04-04-2019, 01:27 PM
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I’ll vote for almost any scenario that ends “Trump is defeated.”
I'm curious about the "almost" there. What scenarios do you consider a bridge too far in order to defeat Trump?
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Old 04-04-2019, 06:29 PM
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Would 4 more years of Trump be more damaging than a recession? If so, yes. If not, no.

The first 2 years of Trump really weren't that bad objectively. And now that we have divided government its even less bad. They failed to take health care protections away from millions, and with divided government its even less likely now. The damage to our reputation is already done so another 4 years won't make the world think much less of us than they already do.

Unless Trump starts a war, or destroys medicare, or something like that I can't forsee him being more damaging to the country than a major economic downturn. So 4 more years of Trump it is.

And if we have divided government and democrats control at least one house of congress, the damage Trump can do to the country and the world will be limited.
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  #15  
Old 04-04-2019, 06:36 PM
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If Trump gets re-elected, we will almost surely miss the window for dealing with global warming.

Call me single-issue, but booms and busts come and go; three recessions have happened during my adult life that were each, at the time, the worst recession since the Great Depression, yet here we are. But the effects of global warming will last for lifetimes.
But realistically does the world need the US federal government to get on board to deal with AGW?

Over 75% of global GDP and fossil fuel usage occurs outside of the US. China invests twice the $ in clean energy that the US does. Europe is talking of increasing their spending on it.

Not only that, but the federal government is just one level of power. We also have state government, city government, corporations and private individuals who can still fight AGW. Many states and cities are committing to fight AGW with or without the federal government.

Its a good thing if anything. The American people are too dysfunctional to be trusted to lead on dealing with global problems. And luckily the world is big, diverse and powerful enough that the world can solve problems on their own while America is mired in dysfunction, white nationalism and a cold civil war.
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Last edited by Wesley Clark; 04-04-2019 at 06:39 PM.
  #16  
Old 04-04-2019, 06:38 PM
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I'm curious about the "almost" there. What scenarios do you consider a bridge too far in order to defeat Trump?
The death of someone close to me.

Recessions suck, and a lot of people get hurt. On the other hand, the economy will rise and fall regardless. Trump's presidency is a disaster of Biblical proportions and given the premise of the OP, a recession and being rid of Trump FAR outweighs a good economy and having Trump remain in office. Not even close.
  #17  
Old 04-04-2019, 06:47 PM
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Given that the only reasonable chance for significant reductions in greenhouse gases will be a rapid adoption of nuclear power, and Trump is more likely to embrace nuclear power than some left-wing green new dealer, I'd say that there's a better chance for GHG reduction under Trump than, say, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or Beto.
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Old 04-04-2019, 06:47 PM
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I think it is a poorly thought out question. If we had any other President than Trump during this economic expansion, he (or she) would have solid approval ratings. To be stuck at 41% during "the best economy ever" is an embarrassment.

If there's a recession, Trump is gone for sure. But even if the good times persist, he has no better than a 50/50 chance of being reelected.
Yeah, I agree with this. I didn't vote as there needs to be more choices. At this stage, I think Trump goes down, regardless, barring some sort of miracle. I'm not even sure how much the Republicans are going to try and help him save the sinking ship right now.

Of course, my powers of prediction suck. I didn't think this dude would get elected in the first place, so a mountain of salt is required....
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  #19  
Old 04-05-2019, 11:22 AM
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Economic book and 4 more years of Trump. Sorry, I have no desire to got through the Hell of another Great Recession. While I kept a job, it affected me on several deeply personal ways that I don’t want to go into. I’m about ready to change jobs again this year, so let’s hold off on any recessions, please.
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  #20  
Old 04-05-2019, 12:53 PM
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You may not get your wish. There are troubling signs of an economic slowdown all around the globe. A recession in the next two or three years is likely, and even if there isn't a formal recession, there will be enough economic bad news to give the Democrats ammunition going into the election.

The next recession could be a doozy. Go look up how much debt the world has taken on at all levels since central bankers held interest rates near zero. There will be a temptation to print our way out of debt at a time when the inevitable inflation from that will raise debt servicing costs to levels that will bankrupt governments.

Democrats could win the next election if there's a sharp slowdown between now and then, but none of us should hope for a deep recession, as it could get very, very bad this time.
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Old 04-05-2019, 12:59 PM
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You may not get your wish. There are troubling signs of an economic slowdown all around the globe. A recession in the next two or three years is likely, and even if there isn't a formal recession, there will be enough economic bad news to give the Democrats ammunition going into the election.

The next recession could be a doozy. Go look up how much debt the world has taken on at all levels since central bankers held interest rates near zero. There will be a temptation to print our way out of debt at a time when the inevitable inflation from that will raise debt servicing costs to levels that will bankrupt governments.

Democrats could win the next election if there's a sharp slowdown between now and then, but none of us should hope for a deep recession, as it could get very, very bad this time.
I'm more worried about China's debt, especially the things we don't know we don't know about it or how deep it goes. But I think the wheels will stay on until after the next election, at least I'm fairly sure they will.
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  #22  
Old 04-05-2019, 01:12 PM
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You may not get your wish. There are troubling signs of an economic slowdown all around the globe. A recession in the next two or three years is likely, and even if there isn't a formal recession, there will be enough economic bad news to give the Democrats ammunition going into the election.

The next recession could be a doozy. Go look up how much debt the world has taken on at all levels since central bankers held interest rates near zero. There will be a temptation to print our way out of debt at a time when the inevitable inflation from that will raise debt servicing costs to levels that will bankrupt governments.

Democrats could win the next election if there's a sharp slowdown between now and then, but none of us should hope for a deep recession, as it could get very, very bad this time.
Especially since the timing of the recession could give the presidency back to the GOP in 2024. In the same way that Obama's economy is giving Trump benefit right now, Trump's economy could sink a Democratic president during 2021-2024.
  #23  
Old 04-05-2019, 01:20 PM
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Not just China's debt, but the huge structural flaws all through their economy. China's central planning has created huge imbalances. Their one-child policy has created large demographic problems. Their attempts to plan education and employment has led to millions of unemployable people and empty planned cities.

China's growth has been driven by the fact that they had huge amounts of low hanging fruit and a huge undeveloped population. Couple that with massive technology theft and the creation of a few 'capitalist' zones that became wildly successful.

But the rapid development came with a lot of central planning and control, and that is now going to cause problems. China is also finding it harder to steal technology, and the need to loosen state control over speech and information in a technological society is giving their authoritarians fits.

I think China is going to be like the Soviet Union - an economy much weaker than suspected because so many in the west want to believe that state planning is somehow more efficient than the 'chaotic' market. There were still serious western economists and politicians touting the Soviet economy a year or two before it collapsed and we found out how much less of it there actually was.

Not that China will 'collapse', or even stop growing, but a new normal of 1-3% growth instead of 6% is entirely possible. Or war if China attempts to replace endogenous growth with military expansion and threats.

Last edited by Sam Stone; 04-05-2019 at 01:21 PM.
  #24  
Old 04-05-2019, 01:20 PM
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Especially since the timing of the recession could give the presidency back to the GOP in 2024. In the same way that Obama's economy is giving Trump benefit right now, Trump's economy could sink a Democratic president during 2021-2024.
Maybe the Dems should be campaigning on that: "hey guys, just so you know, the economy is going to get really bad when I win, so don't blame me for it, it's President Trump's fault"
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Old 04-05-2019, 05:53 PM
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I would really like to see Trump not be re-elected, but not at the expense of a severe economic downturn. Easy question.
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Old 04-05-2019, 06:13 PM
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The longer Trump is in the office, the greater the odds and the greater severity of a recession. A recession leading to his loss would be unfortunate for the country, but less fortunate than the one which would surely follow and we'd be able to start correcting it earlier.
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Old 04-05-2019, 06:15 PM
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I had thought that Trump would have hurt the economy by now but the economy was far stronger already than I realized. If anything, Trump's policies have, in the short run, made companies more profitable, which is not terribly surprising because that's what Republicans usually focus on. Dems push for more employment stability at the expense of growth and profits, and Republicans usually push for more profitability and dividends at the expense of the long-term health of the economy. I am beginning to think - worry - that the economy will continue to carry Trump into next year. If that happens, then it's probably not a question of whether Trump wins, but by how much. I suspect - again, worry - that we might be setting up for a massive financial disaster in a 2nd Trump term.

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  #28  
Old 04-05-2019, 06:20 PM
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We've come a long ways from the economic predictions made immediately following President Trump's election, haven't we?

Is it really already time to start predicting disaster for his 2nd term?
  #29  
Old 04-05-2019, 07:04 PM
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If there is a global recession, it won't be because of Trump. The deficits America is running, and the total debt, will make it worse, but Presidents all run deficits (except for Clinton's last term, which benefited from a dot-com boom, a massive cut in military spending, and a Republican Congress that wouldn't let him spend as much as he wanted).

The current slowdown likely has a lot more to do with the stimulative effects from the low interest rates and big spending coming to an end, leaving the world with the headache of massive debt that needs to be paid down. In addition, world instability is growing due to Russian and Chinese behavior, Brexit, Trump's tariffs, immigration problems in the EU and US, and the general chaos being caused by a global social media explosion is not going to help.

It's way too simplistic to say that Trump will be the cause of a global recession. Some of his policies would certainly help contribute to it, though. But then, if a Democrat gets elected and implements even 10% of the Green New Deal, it will be much worse than anything Trump has done.
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Old 04-05-2019, 08:43 PM
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It's way too simplistic to say that Trump will be the cause of a global recession. Some of his policies would certainly help contribute to it, though. But then, if a Democrat gets elected and implements even 10% of the Green New Deal, it will be much worse than anything Trump has done.
1) The OP didn't ask about a global recession.
2) While I haven't looked at the specifics of the deal, I assume that they are stupid. Whether they are stupider than Trump, I have no idea, but I assume that they would be run through the same prettification machine that has kept things like Trump's China War from being a complete disaster. At the end of the day, the Deep State has a lot of freedom to ignore and reinterpret in favor of basic sanity - whether they're actually supposed to have that freedom or not.

Personally, I would guess that the prettified version of the Green Deal would turn out better than Trump's economics, but I'd rather have the choice of smart rather than stupid left or stupid right.
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Old 04-05-2019, 09:35 PM
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I think it is a poorly thought out question.
It is. Velocity has a bad habit of poorly-formulated poll questions with badly excluded middles. I wind up never voting in any of them because of the extreme black-and-white splitting on which they're based.
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Old 04-05-2019, 09:44 PM
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1) The OP didn't ask about a global recession.
2) While I haven't looked at the specifics of the deal, I assume that they are stupid. Whether they are stupider than Trump, I have no idea, but I assume that they would be run through the same prettification machine that has kept things like Trump's China War from being a complete disaster. At the end of the day, the Deep State has a lot of freedom to ignore and reinterpret in favor of basic sanity - whether they're actually supposed to have that freedom or not.

Personally, I would guess that the prettified version of the Green Deal would turn out better than Trump's economics, but I'd rather have the choice of smart rather than stupid left or stupid right.
I totally agree. It would sure be nice if we weren't always faced with choices that involve lesser evils or trading one stupidity for another, but my fear is that this is the new normal - at least until it causes enough pain that people on both sides return to reality.
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Old 04-05-2019, 09:46 PM
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I would much rather have a decade long world wide depression than see that orange fool spend another 4 years trying to destroy democracy. If the economy is so great (and it is, for the 1%) and this idiot is only polling at 40%, then he will not be able to steal another election no matter how much better it got.
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Old 04-05-2019, 10:05 PM
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We've come a long ways from the economic predictions made immediately following President Trump's election, haven't we?

Is it really already time to start predicting disaster for his 2nd term?
Indeed we have, HD. Indeed we have. I won't dodge that I've made some specific calls that didn't quite materialize. It's hard to predict weather.

But it's easier to predict the climate. I look at the big picture and see similarities in the policies. At this point, some things are proposals, not policies. But if things continue on their current trajectory, I think a downturn is inevitable.
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Old 04-06-2019, 12:49 AM
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I think it is a poorly thought out question. If we had any other President than Trump during this economic expansion, he (or she) would have solid approval ratings. To be stuck at 41% during "the best economy ever" is an embarrassment.

If there's a recession, Trump is gone for sure. But even if the good times persist, he has no better than a 50/50 chance of being reelected.
It's of course possible for Trump to be defeated in 2020 even with a good economy. But that wouldn't be a meaningful poll question; the vast majority of Dopers would vote for a poll option that said "Would you prefer that the economy remain strong and Trump be defeated in 2020?" It had to be a choice between two fairly-equally-tough options.
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Old 04-06-2019, 01:51 AM
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I don't understand. Is the question essentially, would you be ok with millions of people out of work (not you of course, you're too smart for that, other people) if out got Trump out of office?
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Old 04-06-2019, 01:58 AM
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I don't understand. Is the question essentially, would you be ok with millions of people out of work (not you of course, you're too smart for that, other people) if out got Trump out of office?
Yes. Because an economic recession in 2019-2020 would almost certainly lead to Trump losing reelection. If the economy remains hot, on the other hand, he might be reelected. I am polling/asking whether Dopers would consider a recession to be an acceptable tradeoff in return for near-certainty that Trump loses to a (D) after one term.


Conversely, would Trump being president for a 2nd term be too steep a price to pay, even if it came about because of a thriving economy?




BobLibDem's answer was the sort of answer I was inquiring about:
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I would much rather have a decade long world wide depression than see that orange fool spend another 4 years trying to destroy democracy.

Last edited by Velocity; 04-06-2019 at 02:01 AM.
  #38  
Old 04-06-2019, 11:01 AM
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I would much rather have a decade long world wide depression than see that orange fool spend another 4 years trying to destroy democracy. If the economy is so great (and it is, for the 1%) and this idiot is only polling at 40%, then he will not be able to steal another election no matter how much better it got.
Isn't there a risk that a world wide depression would encourage more authoritarianism both at home and abroad?
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Old 04-09-2019, 10:56 AM
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Given that the only reasonable chance for significant reductions in greenhouse gases will be a rapid adoption of nuclear power, and Trump is more likely to embrace nuclear power than some left-wing green new dealer, I'd say that there's a better chance for GHG reduction under Trump than, say, Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders or Beto.
I'd say it will involve a rapid expansion of nuclear power, as well as solar and wind and making housing and transportation and manufacturing more energy-efficient.

Maybe the places I hang out in online besides here aren't representative, but the people I come across who are serious about global warming and know their stuff - they're all on board with more nuclear power. Take this guy, for instance.

Can't speak for Bernie Sanders, who makes mules look conciliatory by comparison, but I don't see Elizabeth Warren having any problem with more nuclear power. Why do you think she would, unless you're buying into what right-wing media are saying about her? And Beto basically is another Obama type, not bringing a rigid ideology to the game.

And in Trump's case, we've got 27 months of track record here. Obviously there are a lot of avenues to pursue to expand the use of non-fossil-fuel power and use less of it as well. Nuclear is obviously the one that Republicans are most on board with. And what have they done, or even tried to do, to push nuclear power in the past 27 months? Zilch. Nada.
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Old 04-09-2019, 11:37 AM
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There will be a temptation to print our way out of debt at a time when the inevitable inflation from that will raise debt servicing costs to levels that will bankrupt governments.
Oogabooga! Inflation!!

Pardon me if I don't quake in fear.
  #41  
Old 04-10-2019, 12:00 AM
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The likely result? Weak economic growth but not a recession; Trump defeated anyway. Turns out he was never spreading the wealth around.
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Old 04-10-2019, 04:53 AM
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I'd want a recession solely because one is definitely coming, and I'd like to see the President who created the most damaging economic policies be blamed for it. Unfortunately, most people blame/praise the sitting president for the current economic climate when, if anything, it's typically the former president who shaped the current economy. Trump cut taxes during full employment and engaged in trade practices that have been discredited since the birth of our country. Hell, when told how his policies would negatively impact the economy in the long run, Trump actually said it wasn't his problem because he'll be out of office by then. My biggest fear is that a Democrat will win and be blamed for a recession exacerbated by Trumps policies, thereby guaranteeing a republican win in 2024.
  #43  
Old 04-10-2019, 09:53 AM
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
Oogabooga! Inflation!!

Pardon me if I don't quake in fear.
Inflation panic, like fear of killer bees, should go back to the 70s and stay there.

This country has disappointed me before, but somehow I refuse to believe it all comes down to Bread and Circuses. "You keep the trains running on time, you can shove whoever you want into the ovens!" I like to think we are better than that, evidence to the contrary notwithstanding.
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  #44  
Old 04-10-2019, 02:49 PM
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Inflation panic? You don't have to be 'panicking' to worry about inflation. Younger people who have never lived through it may think it's just a bogeyman, But I remember the first mortgage on our house, at 13% interest. There has been recent hyperinflation in Zimbabwe and currently in Venezuela. It's a real thing, and it's dangerous.

I also remember before the last financial crisis, when we were told that central banks had a handle on the global economy and their scientific management of global money supplies meant that such crises were no longer possible.
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Old 04-11-2019, 01:14 AM
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I don't think inflation in coming years is a likely problem unless either (a) employment-hawk lackeys are appointed to the F.R.B. by a nitwit President, or (b) a nitwit President frightens the world (e.g. by bragging about his business bankruptcies) so much that the U.S. Dollar and U.S. Treasury bonds lose their safe-haven prestige.

Hmmm. So devaluation of the dollar should be a concern now. So why is the yield curve inverted? Why isn't the price of gold soaring?

Part of the reason, I think, is that other major economies have even worse problems. Aren't some central banks still setting negative interest rates? Brexit has paralyzed Europe's hopes for the future. And with huge paper wealth floating around the world looking for a home, asset prices (e.g. stocks and bonds) remain high. Thus, asset price inflation creates (false?) confidence that, almost paradoxically, keeps the dollar strong.

There was a big stock market correction during the last few months of 2018, but now the market is leaping back toward record levels. But these high prices are due in part to stock buybacks — buybacks sometimes tend to be self-congratulatory masturbation when stock prices are peaking! Is this a house of cards waiting to collapse? If left-wing progressives seem likely to win U.S. elections will the markets worry that wage hikes or coming? Or that corporations will be hit with tax hikes?

How will this all play out? I hope the Board's economists will map out a few of the likeliest scenarios, but AFAICT most people are as mystified as I am.
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Old 04-11-2019, 04:41 AM
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It won't be an issue in time for 2020, but by 2024, there's going to be severe strain on the budget, which will force congress to cut something. Republicans will advocate cutting entitlements and social spending; Democrats will advocate trimming the military and raising taxes. Independents will advocate all the above. But probably nothing will get done, which will result in chaos eventually. Markets will begin to bend to the pressures of uncertainty.

Last edited by asahi; 04-11-2019 at 04:41 AM.
  #47  
Old 04-11-2019, 09:58 AM
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My biggest fear is that a Democrat will win and be blamed for a recession exacerbated by Trumps policies, thereby guaranteeing a republican win in 2024.
A lot of economic policies don't kick in until 4 years afterwards - which is just long enough to ensure that Party A gets the blame/credit for what Party B did, and vice versa.

So, yes, if a Democrat wins in 2020, there'll probably be a recession in 2020-2024. Which helps pave the way for a Republican comeback. Whereas if Democrats lose in 2020, Trump will eat the blame for the recession in his second term.
  #48  
Old 04-20-2019, 10:04 AM
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I don’t like recessions but I don’t like economic booms, either. Because they will always be followed by a bust. And they play havoc with small business. I’ve seen it my whole life. There is an economic boom caused by short-sighted policies and lack of regulation. Everyone has money to spend. Small businesses need to expand rapidly to keep up. They borrow to expand their facilities and increase inventory. Which totally screws them when it all comes crashing down.
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