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Old 04-14-2019, 11:07 PM
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Alberta election 2019


Albertans go to the polls next week.

The incumbent government of Premier Notley and the New Democratic Party is likely on its way out, after only one term, it looks like

After the NDP defeated the Progressive Conservative gouvernement four years ago, and the more conservative Wild Rose Party, the conservatives in Alberta went through some soul-searching and ended up re-organising in the Alberta United Conservative Party (UCP). They're now led by Jason Kenney, a former federal Cabinet Minister in the Harper goverenment

Polls say Kenney and the UCP are likely to form a government. Only question will likely be how big the NDP will be in Opposition.

"UCP leads NDP by eight points in ore-election poll as Alberta's advance voting surges"

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/cana...h-eight-point/
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Old 04-15-2019, 12:41 AM
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In my extremely unscientific poll of "who wants to win this election more?" I have to give the edge to the UCP. So far, I've received:

UCP: Three pieces of campaign literature, and two door-to-door visits from the candidate (on the second, the candidate greeted me by name).

NDP: One piece of campaign literature; zero visits from the candidate.

All other parties: Nothing.

In fairness, I must say that local media has been giving equal time to all local candidates, in both local ridings (the city of Lethbridge has two ridings), and to candidates in nearby rural ridings as well. All have explained the issues and their positions on them, so we are well-informed as to all sides, and perhaps don't need lots of campaign literature. But I am surprised at the lack of door-to-door campaigning from the NDP candidate.
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Old 04-15-2019, 01:53 AM
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I’m a teacher, and I have some serious concerns about Kenney’s plans for education. Also, I just don’t trust the guy.
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Old 04-15-2019, 10:15 AM
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From a far distance (Ontario) it looks like the UPC wins. I'd like to think Notley stays as leader of the NDP and then runs in the next election. The surveys I've seen, seem to paint her in a favourable light and experience at running a government is priceless, especially if the NDP plan to win back the legislature.
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Old 04-15-2019, 10:29 PM
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In my extremely unscientific poll of "who wants to win this election more?" I have to give the edge to the UCP....
In the mailbox today, I received two more pieces of campaign literature from the UCP, and nothing from anybody else.
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Old 04-16-2019, 02:31 AM
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I guess vote for whoever fills your mailbox the most, or something.
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Old 04-16-2019, 08:50 AM
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Probably not, but it does make in impression if only 1 political party is coming for your vote. I'd guess the NPD are concentrating heavily on maintaining urban seats in Calgary and Edmonton.

I think the NPD won all ridings in Edmonton (19) and 75% of Calgary (14 of 25) and that gives/gave them 33 seats out of a possible 87. Weird that Lethbridge isn't seeing more NDP though...I thought the NDP won 2 ridings there didn't they?
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Old 04-16-2019, 04:00 PM
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Weird that Lethbridge isn't seeing more NDP though...I thought the NDP won 2 ridings there didn't they?
They did. Lethbridge only has two ridings, and the NDP took both of them in the last election.

Which is why I'm surprised at the lack of effort, at least in my riding. You'd think that the NDP would want to hold onto what they already have. There are lawn signs for the NDP candidate, but those are just about the only indication that the NDP is running a candidate in my riding.
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Old 04-16-2019, 04:38 PM
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From a far distance (Ontario) it looks like the UPC wins. I'd like to think Notley stays as leader of the NDP and then runs in the next election. The surveys I've seen, seem to paint her in a favourable light and experience at running a government is priceless, especially if the NDP plan to win back the legislature.
My understanding is that predictions were overwhelmingly for a UCP win. I guess we'll find out in a few hours.

What worries me is not the claim that this represents a sort of new conservatism that is sweeping Canada; first Quebec, then Ontario, and now Alberta. East of Alberta this is mostly Canadian-style conservatism. Here in Ontario, for example, Doug Ford liberalized liquor laws, opened cannabis stores, and announced a plan for free dental care for all seniors. My worry is that from what I know of Jason Kenney and the UCP, this is extreme US-Republican style conservatism.
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Old 04-16-2019, 04:51 PM
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From a far distance (Ontario) it looks like the UPC wins. I'd like to think Notley stays as leader of the NDP and then runs in the next election. The surveys I've seen, seem to paint her in a favourable light and experience at running a government is priceless, especially if the NDP plan to win back the legislature.
I think it depends on if she quits after losing and how fast. That is making the assumption that the NDP loses, my thought was that she called the election early enough, that if she did lose , she could make the jump to the Federal side. Either NDP or Liberal, or is it too late to file papers for any particular riding.
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Old 04-16-2019, 07:12 PM
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Well, I just got back from voting. It wasn't very busy, but based on the number of ballots already in the box (it was stuffed nearly full), it must have been quite busier earlier.

At any rate, it looks like lots of people are getting out and voting, which is a good thing.
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Old 04-16-2019, 08:05 PM
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My worry is that from what I know of Jason Kenney and the UCP, this is extreme US-Republican style conservatism.
You have some examples for how Kenney represents extreme US Republican conservatism?
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Old 04-16-2019, 08:35 PM
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We voted early on Saturday, and there was a line out the door at the polling place.

Our neighborhood in Edmonton has probably three or four UCP signs for every NDP sign, and we elected the NDP last time around.
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Old 04-16-2019, 08:42 PM
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Polls say that the conservatives will be elected, and I expect this will be borne out.

I also expect that those who enjoy magical thinking will find themselves disappointed by the next 4 years.

-Kenny will not magically bring back jobs to the oil patch - jobs that for the most part are NEVER coming back.

-Kenny will not singlehandedly raise the world price of oil.

-Kenny will try to "turn off the taps" to punish BC. This will not work. It's a stupid idea, that morons at the end of the bar like to come up with at the end of a bout of drinking.

- Kenny WILL cut the corporate tax. By a lot. This is the main thing in his platform he can do. This will result in huge deficits, which will then give him the excuse to cut social programs. By a lot. Which is pretty much the game plan.

- At the end of all this, there will be no pipeline, no additional jobs, a bigger debt and social programs gutted. And Kenny will blame others. The primary goal in the short term is to Blame Trudeau. Because Trudeau is EVIL and is Trying To Destroy The Country. Later, Kenny will blame pretty much everyone for his failures.
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Old 04-16-2019, 08:52 PM
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We voted early on Saturday, and there was a line out the door at the polling place.

Our neighborhood in Edmonton has probably three or four UCP signs for every NDP sign, and we elected the NDP last time around.
Of course, you voted NDP, right?
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Polls say that the conservatives will be elected, and I expect this will be borne out.

I also expect that those who enjoy magical thinking will find themselves disappointed by the next 4 years.

-Kenny will not magically bring back jobs to the oil patch - jobs that for the most part are NEVER coming back.

-Kenny will not singlehandedly raise the world price of oil.

-Kenny will try to "turn off the taps" to punish BC. This will not work. It's a stupid idea, that morons at the end of the bar like to come up with at the end of a bout of drinking.

- Kenny WILL cut the corporate tax. By a lot. This is the main thing in his platform he can do. This will result in huge deficits, which will then give him the excuse to cut social programs. By a lot. Which is pretty much the game plan.

- At the end of all this, there will be no pipeline, no additional jobs, a bigger debt and social programs gutted. And Kenny will blame others. The primary goal in the short term is to Blame Trudeau. Because Trudeau is EVIL and is Trying To Destroy The Country. Later, Kenny will blame pretty much everyone for his failures.
Sounds like some very credible predictions. All of them.
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Old 04-16-2019, 09:29 PM
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28 minutes since the polls closed, and CTV has called it for the UCP.
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Old 04-16-2019, 09:30 PM
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I'm watching the election returns on TV.

CTV News is projecting a UCP win.

Still to early to call anything, IMHO, but that's just me.

ETA: Ninja'd by Northern Piper!

Last edited by Spoons; 04-16-2019 at 09:30 PM.
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Old 04-16-2019, 09:36 PM
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And at 8:36, it's now projected as a majority government.
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Old 04-16-2019, 10:01 PM
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As of 9:00 PM MDT:

UCP: Leading and elected in 62 ridings.

NDP: Leading and elected in 24 ridings.

Everybody else: Nothing.

Total number of seats in the Legislature: 87.
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Old 04-16-2019, 10:08 PM
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Turning into a neck-and-neck horse race here in Lethbridge West. The NDP candidate has just a 30 vote lead over the UCP candidate, with less than half the polls reporting.
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Old 04-16-2019, 10:11 PM
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As of 9:00 PM MDT:



UCP: Leading and elected in 62 ridings.



NDP: Leading and elected in 24 ridings.



Everybody else: Nothing.



Total number of seats in the Legislature: 87.


This is one of the things that concerns me. We’ve gone from multi-party representation to a more American-style two party system. Very polarized. That’s not going to be a good thing.
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Old 04-16-2019, 10:58 PM
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At 9:55 PM MDT, Rachel Notley is conceding.

Still a very close race here in Lethbridge West--about 30-40 votes, with maybe a dozen polls to report. No idea what may happen once the advance poll votes are counted.
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Old 04-16-2019, 11:08 PM
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I was a polling clerk in Calgary Mountain View. If the unofficial count is anything to go by, the NDP has this riding.
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Old 04-16-2019, 11:18 PM
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Currently 10:17 MDT. Jason Kenney is speaking live on TV.
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Old 04-16-2019, 11:19 PM
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Currently 10:17 MDT. Jason Kenney is speaking live on TV.


The tyrant is born.
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Old 04-16-2019, 11:30 PM
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This is one of the things that concerns me. Weíve gone from multi-party representation to a more American-style two party system. Very polarized. Thatís not going to be a good thing.
This is concerning me too. I saw David Khan's (Alberta Liberal Party leader) concession speech, and it appears that this is the first time in Alberta's history that a provincial Liberal has not had a seat in the Legislature. Heck, the Liberals ran the province, back in the day.

Okay, now, Kenney is speaking to Quebec--in French. He's repeating his remarks in English.
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Old 04-16-2019, 11:54 PM
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Just reported: a 70% voter turnout.
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Old 04-17-2019, 12:11 AM
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This is concerning me too. I saw David Khan's (Alberta Liberal Party leader) concession speech, and it appears that this is the first time in Alberta's history that a provincial Liberal has not had a seat in the Legislature. Heck, the Liberals ran the province, back in the day.



Okay, now, Kenney is speaking to Quebec--in French. He's repeating his remarks in English.


I didn’t quite understand the French segment. Did he forget where he was running?
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Old 04-17-2019, 12:25 AM
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I didnít quite understand the French segment. Did he forget where he was running?
No, I think he knew where he was. His remarks in French were directed at Quebec, and he repeated them in English. Still, I'll grant that it got a little confusing, mainly because he'd speak a few sentences in French, repeat them in English, speak a sentence in French, repeat it in English, ad-lib something in English, try to speak it in French, and so on. It was confusing, but I'm sure we'll get a transcript of everything in tomorrow's media.

Alberta does have a small Francophone population--a friend and colleague is a Francophone from northern Ontario, and his wife is a Francophone from Montreal, and the town of Beaumont is majority Francophone, if I understand things correctly--but the Francophone community in Alberta is admittedly small. Regardless, Mr. Kenney made it very clear that his remarks in French were directed at Quebec.
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Old 04-17-2019, 06:00 AM
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This is concerning me too. I saw David Khan's (Alberta Liberal Party leader) concession speech, and it appears that this is the first time in Alberta's history that a provincial Liberal has not had a seat in the Legislature. Heck, the Liberals ran the province, back in the day.
Uh, what day was that? The 19th century? The Liberals only lost one seat in the election, unfortunately it was the only one they had.
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Old 04-17-2019, 06:17 AM
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Uh, what day was that? The 19th century?
Alberta became a province in the 20th century. It was 1905, to be exact.
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Old 04-17-2019, 07:04 AM
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The point is the Liberals haven't led Alberta for about a hundred years. Conservatives in charge since '71 and a different flavour of conservative from 1935-71. All majority governments. Saying "oh no, Alberta is going American style! We used to have a multiparty representation." is pretty ridiculous considering.
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Old 04-17-2019, 07:11 AM
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It's been almost a century since the Liberals formed a government in Alberta. They lost the 1921 election and haven't been in power since then.

Alberta has the oddest electoral pattern in Canada. Albertans like dynasties. Since 1905, they have only changed governments five times, counting the upcoming transition to the United Conservative Party

1921: Liberals defeated by United Farmers of Alberta.

1935: UFA defeated by Social Credit

1971: Social Credit defeated by Progressive Conservatives

2015: progressive Conservatives defeated by New Democratic Party

2019: NDP defeated by UCP

Note that no party, once kicked out of office, has ever returned to power.
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Old 04-17-2019, 07:24 AM
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This is concerning me too. I saw David Khan's (Alberta Liberal Party leader) concession speech, and it appears that this is the first time in Alberta's history that a provincial Liberal has not had a seat in the Legislature.
They went 15 years without any seats in the 70s and 80s. (In 1982, the PCs won 75 seats and the only other party was the NDP with all of 2 seats.)

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 04-17-2019 at 07:27 AM.
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Old 04-17-2019, 07:31 AM
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And with regard to the multi-party comment, Alberta has never had a minority government. It's always had majority governments, often very strong majorities, as in 1982.
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Old 04-17-2019, 08:16 AM
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Turning into a neck-and-neck horse race here in Lethbridge West. The NDP candidate has just a 30 vote lead over the UCP candidate, with less than half the polls reporting.
Needed more flyers.
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Old 04-17-2019, 09:59 AM
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It also looks that some tidings are not decided yet, because there was such a heavy turnout at the advance polls. Won't change the overall outcome, but may affect the final seat tally:

https://globalnews.ca/news/5169461/a...llot-counting/
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Old 04-17-2019, 10:07 AM
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It also looks that some tidings are not decided yet, because there was such a heavy turnout at the advance polls. Won't change the overall outcome, but may affect the final seat tally:

https://globalnews.ca/news/5169461/a...llot-counting/


https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/201...7f811913a0.jpg
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Old 04-17-2019, 10:17 AM
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The tyrant is born.
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Yeah, you're real concerned about polarized American style politics.
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:34 AM
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The tyrant? Oh come on, Alberta will wind up with a middle of the road conservative party with some sops to the socially conservative wing. If they're lucky they wont get a booze focused student council Premier type like Ontario did.
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Old 04-17-2019, 11:43 AM
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Vote UCP and if you're lucky they won't suck as badly as other right-wing governments! Yeah, that's a campaign I can get behind. I can see the appeal.
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Old 04-17-2019, 01:57 PM
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Vote UCP and if you're lucky they won't suck as badly as other right-wing governments! Yeah, that's a campaign I can get behind. I can see the appeal.
Not sucking as badly as the others is about the best you can hope for these days. Around the world we have the worst ruling class in my memory. Feckless, compromised politicians everywhere.
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Old 04-17-2019, 01:59 PM
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I donít think the results are much of a surprise. Itís Rachel Notleyís birthday today. I think she did a competent job of promoting pipelines and trying to balance this with reasonable environmental compromises. Iím not sure the federal government helped her out much in either regard, and Trudeau will presumably find it harder to deal with Kenney.

Although some Canadian voters are more polarized than in the past, the truth is that Canadaís two biggest parties share more similarities than differences. Obviously, much is made of small differences. Jason Kenney was a competent and effective federal minister. Though the UCP were not free from scandal, and there are limits to what Kenney can do, I am not sure there is justification for ad hominem attacks. Alberta needs to attract investment and figure out a solution to its considerable problems. Kenney seems reasonably suitable to do this, but it doesnít seem easy.
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Old 04-17-2019, 03:29 PM
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Alberta needs to attract investment and figure out a solution to its considerable problems. Kenney seems reasonably suitable to do this, but it doesnít seem easy.
Agreed, but I don't see what plan Kenny has to attract investment and diversify the economy. Alberta's economy has needed diversification for the past 25+ years, but this whole concept was an anathema for the former conservative government. Notley never had a chance to make changes.

Kenny seems likely to simply try all of the old conservative techniques that failed in the past, only he's going to do them harder this time.

More corporate tax cuts. Because of course that means they will hire more people (pro-tip; this is not true).

Suck up to the major oil corporations. Because the oil will last forever.

Explode the debt and cut social programs. Because of all of those entitled poor people.

There does not seem to be an actual plan for diversification or attracting any business other than oil corporations.

Some folks I know in Calgary are thrilled with the election. These are not people who actually do any productive work in the oil patch, per se. These are not electricians, or plumbers or trades or accountants, or project managers. The folks who are really happy that I know are those middle managers whose job it is to go golfing, take 3 hour lunches, and have "meetings". They're happy as hell that their 6 figure incomes are going to keep on.
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Old 04-17-2019, 03:33 PM
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Notley deserved better. She was dealt a bad hand and played it as good as she could. Ironically, 31 years of Conservative rule (1971-2015) did very little to diversify Alberta's economy (despite billions in royalties) and that did her in when oil prices tanked. And Trudeau the villain threw her under the bus because he preferred an enemy on the right rather than an enemy on the left.
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Old 04-17-2019, 03:36 PM
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I've started working on my "Welcome to the Dystopian Hellscape" sampler.

Stabbing something over and over again is making me feel better .
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Old 04-17-2019, 04:52 PM
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I've started working on my "Welcome to the Dystopian Hellscape" sampler.

Stabbing something over and over again is making me feel better .
I don't think it will be THAT bad.

The NDP still is an opposition with reasonable numbers. It's not like the days with two whole MLA's in opposition.

The debt will go up and large corporations will profit more.
The employment situation will continue to be OK
Social programs will suffer, but backlash will prevent them from being totally destroyed
The UCP will probably have some major scandals/mouthy MLA's to worry about

Above all, Kenny will bluster and blame. Blame will be his prime focus. He needs a villain, an enemy to blame. In the short term, this will be British Columbia, and above all, Trudeau. This is the Conservative party platform for the next Federal election: "We hate Trudeau, and so should you"
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Old 04-17-2019, 05:20 PM
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Old 04-17-2019, 06:32 PM
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I don't think it will be THAT bad.

The NDP still is an opposition with reasonable numbers. It's not like the days with two whole MLA's in opposition.

The debt will go up and large corporations will profit more.
The employment situation will continue to be OK
Social programs will suffer, but backlash will prevent them from being totally destroyed
The UCP will probably have some major scandals/mouthy MLA's to worry about

Above all, Kenny will bluster and blame. Blame will be his prime focus. He needs a villain, an enemy to blame. In the short term, this will be British Columbia, and above all, Trudeau. This is the Conservative party platform for the next Federal election: "We hate Trudeau, and so should you"
I must admit I don't follow provincial politics that closely - does the size of the opposition matter that much? I imagine in the case where it was, say 45 seat majority vs. 42 seats opposition it might be a big deal as a few people from the majority party abstaining from any particular vote might mean that they wouldn't be able to pass certain bills - but with a 30+ seat gap, are there likely to be many situations where the opposition party has any influence whatsoever?

I tend to agree that it's likely not going to be too bad. I disagree with a lot of the UCP's policy proposals, and their intended adversarial approach to inter-provincial and federal politics, but I don't see Alberta regressing into some socially backward redneck hellhole just because the UCP is in power now like some people on social media are lamenting. Notley's government actually performed much better than I expected, given the vast amount of inexperience in her legislature, and I thought she said all the right things representing Alberta's interests to the rest of Canada - unfortunately, it seems like most Albertans don't agree.

I guess we'll see over the next 4 years whether having a war room is a better strategy for the energy industry than maintaining a social licence to operate.

Last edited by Delayed Reflex; 04-17-2019 at 06:33 PM.
  #50  
Old 04-17-2019, 06:52 PM
Sam Stone is online now
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Join Date: Jun 1999
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Since our debt went from $10 billion to $76 billion in four years, I'm trying to figure out how they spent so much money and what we got for it. More government employees, for sure. A few billion to shut down our coal plants a little earlier than planned. I'm sure social spending was high, what with all the jobs lost. And the tax revenue from all those jobs went bye-bye.

The point is that if Kenney kills the carbon tax (and he pretty much has to), that's going to kick an even bigger hole in our fiscal situation. That means unless he wants to absolutely explode the debt he is going to have to cut billions out of the budget. Where will he find those cuts?

If he is hoping to restore Alberta's energy sector to its previous glory he is sadly mistaken. That investment is not coming back. Not unless oil goes over $100/bbl, and maybe not then because the oil companies know that Alberta is ground zero for anti-oil activism. Our oil costs more in greenhouse gases than pretty much anyone else's, so the anti-oil activists are not going away. Keeping Alberta's oil in the ground is their first priority. That's why so much out-of-province money from organizations like the Tides Foundation flowed in to help the NDP, and why so much foreign money has been flowing into the campaigns to keep pipelines from being built.

I think Alberta is basically a pariah to the oil industry until we have proven that we can guarantee the flow of oil out of the province, and maybe not then.

Kenney inherited a terrible situation just as Notley did. I don't know how we get out of it. A nuclear plant to provide the energy for the tar sands would really help, and we were planning one once, but I don't see that happening any more.
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