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Old 04-20-2019, 05:28 PM
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Trump's realistic path to reelection in 2020 (if any exists)


Looks like the only way Trump can win reelection in 2020 is if there is some unforeseen big October surprise, or somehow the economy not only does not crater but in fact becomes even hotter than before. And even then that might not do the trick. Or somehow the Democrats would have to end up nominating a truly abysmal candidate.


Looks like a parlay wager. Trump cannot win if only one or two fortuitous things go his way. It's going to have to be a string of somewhat-improbable events strung together to happen, probably at least three. Hot economy, really bad Democratic candidate, and some unforeseen surprise, such as a big and sudden crime wave by migrants.
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Old 04-20-2019, 06:29 PM
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The best thing he can hope for is a band of Mexican Muslims bringing down the Statue of Liberty. The economy is strong, but people aren't feeling like they're doing better. The tax cuts have not helped those in middle America. Health care continues to be an albatross as Republicans simply can't agree on a replacement for the ACA. If he runs against Biden, then Michigan and Pennsylvania are uphill climbs for him. He is not running against Hillary, and the Democratic base is engaged.

The other thing that might help Donald would be if Sanders decides to fight for the nomination long after he loses it, like he did in 2016. Elections depend on Democratic turnout, and it is going to be HUGE in 2020. We saw what a difference that made in 2018.
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Old 04-20-2019, 08:25 PM
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The Russians do an even better job of hacking the election. This time, actually changing the vote totals in various counties' Election Department computers.

Last edited by dtilque; 04-20-2019 at 08:26 PM.
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Old 04-20-2019, 08:43 PM
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As long as there's not a war or a major economic crash in the next two years, all he needs to do is say "we've had a great four years and we're going to have ANOTHER GREAT FOUR YEARS!" If he campaigns the way he did in 2016, the Democratic candidate is going to have to fight very hard to scrape by. I don't care what anyone says about how supposedly bad Trump's chances are; everyone said the same thing in 2016.
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Old 04-20-2019, 10:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
Looks like the only way Trump can win reelection in 2020 is if there is some unforeseen big October surprise, or somehow the economy not only does not crater but in fact becomes even hotter than before. And even then that might not do the trick. ...
What makes you think that?

At the time of the 2016 election, Trump's favorability rating was 41.8%. Currently, Trump's approval rating is 41.7%. So I don't see why Trump would do any worse now than in 2016.
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Old 04-20-2019, 10:37 PM
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There was an Onion headline back in summer 2016, something like, "Trump, Clinton fortunate to run against only candidate they can beat."

I think about that a lot, and it gives me hope.
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Old 04-20-2019, 11:00 PM
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I'm convinced Trump won because of Jill Stein. The Russians were all over the Green Party in 2016. The Green Party Convention was televised only on Russia Today.

Had Jill Stein's votes gone to Hillary Clinton 75% to 25% she would have won the electoral college.

Those who cast votes for Green or other in 2016 who hate Donald Trump (pretty much all of them, I suspect) will not make the same mistake in 2020.

Don't vote Green in 2020! Don't be Putin's Puppet!
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Old 04-20-2019, 11:09 PM
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Rothschild's Predictwise shows the White House at D 52% R 48%. Betfair is slightly more optimistic with R's only 47%. Both sites show Trump as big favorite to be the R nominee. Easy money for those certain Trump re-election is unlikely.

A distant 2nd-most likely to be next President is Sanders, followed by Harris, Biden, and then ... Buttigieg!
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Old 04-21-2019, 12:34 AM
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Looks like the only way Trump can win reelection in 2020 is if there is some unforeseen big October surprise, or somehow the economy not only does not crater but in fact becomes even hotter than before.
I get it. You think because today was 4/20 we would buy into this.




Nice try.

Last edited by Kolak of Twilo; 04-21-2019 at 12:34 AM.
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Old 04-21-2019, 01:06 AM
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I was reading an article the other day (I think it was in the Washington Post, but I may be mistaken) which quoted an insider with some knowledge of Trump's plans for the next election. The insider was quoted as saying that their strategy is to keep close tabs on all of the Democratic candidates, and look for slip-ups, misstatements, or phrases that can be taken out of context (e.g., "basket of deplorables," "you didn't build that"), and use that to absolutely hammer on the eventual Democratic nominee.

The insider said (paraphrasing), "Trump's plan is to stay at 45% approval, and make the other guy completely radioactive."
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Old 04-21-2019, 01:14 AM
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I was reading an article the other day (I think it was in the Washington Post, but I may be mistaken) which quoted an insider with some knowledge of Trump's plans for the next election. The insider was quoted as saying that their strategy is to keep close tabs on all of the Democratic candidates, and look for slip-ups, misstatements, or phrases that can be taken out of context (e.g., "basket of deplorables," "you didn't build that"), and use that to absolutely hammer on the eventual Democratic nominee.

The insider said (paraphrasing), "Trump's plan is to stay at 45% approval, and make the other guy completely radioactive."
Found it -- it's an Axios article, and it's actually talking about the RNC's plans for the campaign.
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Old 04-21-2019, 03:05 AM
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... their strategy is to keep close tabs on all of the Democratic candidates, and look for slip-ups, misstatements, or phrases that can be taken out of context (e.g., "basket of deplorables," "you didn't build that"), and use that to absolutely hammer on the eventual Democratic nominee...
Isn't it what they always do ?
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Old 04-21-2019, 06:52 AM
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I think he’ll probably be re-elected. I think once again, the Bernie base will have a temper tantrum when he doesn’t get the nomination and vote for Kremlin supported third party candidates.
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Old 04-21-2019, 07:50 AM
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He flipped IA, MI, PA, and WI compared to 2012. You can say he flipped FL, but I think FL is on a swing back to red anyway.

He can lose IA, WI and PA, hold onto MI and win.

Or lose PA and MI, hold onto IA and WI and win.
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Old 04-21-2019, 08:20 AM
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What makes you think that?

At the time of the 2016 election, Trump's favorability rating was 41.8%. Currently, Trump's approval rating is 41.7%. So I don't see why Trump would do any worse now than in 2016.
He will do worse because he won't be running against Hillary. Nobody is going to vote for him because of "duhhhhhh....... something something emails" People are on to him now. Democrats are energized.
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Old 04-21-2019, 08:22 AM
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As long as the economy stays about where it is for another 15 months, no major foreign Benghazi level snafu, no Katrina style FEMA failure (Puerto Rico will be in the mirror and it is "not in the US" anyway*) Trump has a good chance. If the Dems keep nit picking the Muellor report that was supposed to be the final answer, he'll be able to play the pity me card. I expect some type of event at the southern border to define the next 18 months. Either migrants at the border or in custody riot or storm the border requiring a military assisted response or more likely some type of epidemic from unhealthy living standards. Then it will depend on his response as to whether it helps him secure the independants or turns them away.

*yes I know it is American territory and the population are US citizens. Common perception though is it is not really part of the US.
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Old 04-21-2019, 08:46 AM
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How about a My Lai type massacre by citizen militias?
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Old 04-21-2019, 09:08 AM
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You can say he flipped FL, but I think FL is on a swing back to red anyway.
Yup, the fact that the GOP did so well there in 2018 pretty much kills FL as a battleground state. Trump's realistic chance at winning is the same as last time, hope to squeak by the electoral college by doing the same thing hes been doing.
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Old 04-21-2019, 10:11 AM
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What are you talking about? Trump can win easily, by changing the votes. Election fraud is a thing.

Edit: OK, maybe it's not that easy if even Republicans are sick of him. But it's possible.

Last edited by foolsguinea; 04-21-2019 at 10:12 AM.
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Old 04-21-2019, 10:18 AM
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He will do worse because he won't be running against Hillary. Nobody is going to vote for him because of "duhhhhhh....... something something emails" People are on to him now. Democrats are energized.
That's just wishful thinking. Hillary didn't lose because she made minor mistakes. She lost because Republicans have a formidable propaganda machine. Whoever is the Democratic candidate, the Republicans will find something just as minor as Hillary's e-mails and blow it up as a major scandal. Or just make something up and keep repeating it till it sticks - remember "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth"?

Last edited by scr4; 04-21-2019 at 10:19 AM.
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Old 04-21-2019, 10:35 AM
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All in all, I think he is being underestimated. Again. I would not bet against him, at least not at this point.
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Old 04-21-2019, 01:22 PM
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That's just wishful thinking. Hillary didn't lose because she made minor mistakes. She lost because Republicans have a formidable propaganda machine. Whoever is the Democratic candidate, the Republicans will find something just as minor as Hillary's e-mails and blow it up as a major scandal. Or just make something up and keep repeating it till it sticks - remember "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth"?
That his favorability reading is the same as it was, is not as important as the fact that those who hate him, hate him enough to vote. Those that merely favor him, 'well, it's raining out and I'm tired'.

Last edited by KarlGauss; 04-21-2019 at 01:23 PM.
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:23 AM
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He can win again by doing the same things again that he did before. Past outcomes do not guarantee future results, but they're the best indicator we have. If we want this election to be different, then we need to make it be different.
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Old 04-22-2019, 09:35 AM
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That his favorability reading is the same as it was, is not as important as the fact that those who hate him, hate him enough to vote. Those that merely favor him, 'well, it's raining out and I'm tired'.
That claim does not seem consistent with the outcome of the 2016 election.
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Old 04-22-2019, 09:38 AM
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Looks like the only way Trump can win reelection in 2020 is if there is some unforeseen big October surprise, or somehow the economy not only does not crater but in fact becomes even hotter than before. And even then that might not do the trick. Or somehow the Democrats would have to end up nominating a truly abysmal candidate.
Are you serious? You sound like Rachel Maddow 2 weeks out from the election in 2016.
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Old 04-22-2019, 04:43 PM
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I think Democrats are making a major mistake by shifting hard to the left. Today Elizabeth Sanders wants to forgive college debt and make college free. Almost all the candidates want some form of single payer health care. They all want open borders, and the more radical of the bunch want to abolish ICE. They all want higher taxes and more spending. This plays well with the base (ie liberals on this board, for example), but is toxic to middle America and the southern border states. If Democrats keep tacking left, they will cement their status as the party of the coastal big cities, and will get wiped out in the electoral college.

Then you have AOC and the heavily funded progressive left like the Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America, who are threatening a coup from within by primarying moderate Democrats. That's why Nancy Pelosi is fighting them.

Aside from the Presidency, the Democrats risk making the same mistake as the Tea Party and nominating a bunch of people too radical to win in winnable districts, thereby snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:15 PM
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I'm not convinced there are any "centrists" any more.
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:30 PM
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Today Elizabeth Sanders wants to forgive college debt and make college free.
Bernie Warren wants to do that too.
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:35 PM
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Heh. I didn't even realize I did that.
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Old 04-22-2019, 06:41 PM
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I think Democrats are making a major mistake by shifting hard to the left. Today Elizabeth Sanders wants to forgive college debt and make college free. Almost all the candidates want some form of single payer health care. They all want open borders, and the more radical of the bunch want to abolish ICE. They all want higher taxes and more spending. This plays well with the base (ie liberals on this board, for example), but is toxic to middle America and the southern border states. If Democrats keep tacking left, they will cement their status as the party of the coastal big cities, and will get wiped out in the electoral college.

Then you have AOC and the heavily funded progressive left like the Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America, who are threatening a coup from within by primarying moderate Democrats. That's why Nancy Pelosi is fighting them.

Aside from the Presidency, the Democrats risk making the same mistake as the Tea Party and nominating a bunch of people too radical to win in winnable districts, thereby snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Socialism and open borders. What can go wrong? It’s funny reading all the dishonest politicians and folks deny what was clearly obvious.
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Old 04-22-2019, 07:05 PM
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Socialism and open borders.
Effectively name-calling. An old 'argument'.

Anyone paying attention in the last thirty or so years, knows that "socialism" is not what is being promoted by the Democrats but, rather, social democracy.

See the difference.

ETA: And 'open borders'. Seriously?

Last edited by KarlGauss; 04-22-2019 at 07:06 PM.
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Old 04-22-2019, 07:41 PM
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The Republicans realize they can win if only they can keep enough Democrats from voting. And they are working very hard on that. Throw out registrations, restrict weekend voting, close polling stations, you name it. A friend of mine lived in Ohio in 2000 and they took many voting booths out of Cleveland to relocate in the sticks. Some Clevelanders waiting four hours to vote. Many gave up. Turning Ohio would have cost Bush the election.
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Old 04-22-2019, 07:50 PM
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Looks like the only way Trump can win reelection in 2020 is if there is some unforeseen big October surprise, or somehow the economy not only does not crater but in fact becomes even hotter than before. And even then that might not do the trick. Or somehow the Democrats would have to end up nominating a truly abysmal candidate.


Looks like a parlay wager. Trump cannot win if only one or two fortuitous things go his way. It's going to have to be a string of somewhat-improbable events strung together to happen, probably at least three. Hot economy, really bad Democratic candidate, and some unforeseen surprise, such as a big and sudden crime wave by migrants.
Hm. Well, the economy is actually doing fairly well. The situation in North Korea seems to have worked out in his favor as well...so far. As has his trade war with China. So far. The Chinese seem to be dumping massive amounts of cash into their own economy to prop it up in the hopes, seemingly, that the US will make some concessions and stop the trade war. The Iran thing hasn't bit him on the ass yet either. The immigration thing also seems to have calmed down and he's lowered expectations on his ridiculous wall...for now.

Um...those are the only even vaguely positive things I can think of, and I think I'm reaching on several of those. Any of those could explode in his face and tank the economy or send the stock market into a downward spiral. Then there is the Russia findings, which we still don't know the extent of the damage that will or could potentially do to him.

On the other side, we have the Democrats, always the party ready, even eager to snatch defeat from the slavering jaws of victory. Who will they put up against him? A young, fire eyed progressive or...Bernie (or someone equally old and creaky, as well as cantankerous and crotchety)? Or will they go for a Democratic moderate? And what will the Dems DO between now and then wrt Congress? What sorts of things will they propose? Trump, for all his faults, actually has tried (or seemed to wrt his voters and base) to do the things he campaigned on. They are almost all stupid things, all are misguided, but he's tried to do them...and I think both his base and Republicans in general want many of those (stupid, populist) things. He's their guy. The real question is, can the Dems hang together for this crucial election, can they put their civil war aside to put Trump out of our collective misery, or will they split the ticket and allow him to win, snatching defeat once again from the jaws of victory? I don't think this election is a lock up, nor do I think the Dems should treat it that way. They SHOULD treat it like what it is...an extremely crucial election they MUST win. At all costs.
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  #34  
Old 04-22-2019, 07:50 PM
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Third party candidate sucks votes from the democrats

Democrats have a contentious primary and lots of democrats stay home or vote third party.

Russians get better at election hacking.

Democratic nominee is somehow more toxic to independents than Trump.
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Old 04-22-2019, 07:55 PM
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A brokered Democratic convention is Trump's strongest route to a win. It's not as unlikely as normal when the media use the hypothetical for filler.

DNC rules require a majority of delegates, not a plurality, to win the nomination. The field is huge. Delegates are also far more front loaded than we are used to seeing. There's still some scheduling to be locked down but we're looking at 64% of all delegates being selected by March 17th. IIRC it's 36% already scheduled for on or before Super Tuesday, March 3rd, with another ten percent possible on that day. Early voting in Democratically controlled states means many people will be voting in Super Tuesday states before the field has finished it's typical February winnowing. Proportional allocation rules mean that even the big winner on Super Tuesday might be way off the pace to secure a majority of delegates. Super delegates can't tip the scale for the plurality candidate anymore; they no longer get to vote on the first ballot. We could genuinely be looking at a contested convention. This cycle is not like previous cycles where a contested convention is just a filler hypothetical for the media. Things really did change.

The 15% threshold may prevent that ugliness. The DNC's rules are relatively proportional in small fields but the threshold rule can skew that pretty significantly. It comes with a potential downside if it is producing significantly less than proportional results. Essentially the rules ignore the votes of those who selected candidates who wind up below threshold. Think pissed off voters blaming the DNC for disenfranchisement and holding it against the nominee. It's probably less ugly than a contested convention, though. It might not even be noticed if the results aren't too far off proportional. We won't be able to miss a contested convention.
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Old 04-22-2019, 08:37 PM
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I was reading an article the other day (I think it was in the Washington Post, but I may be mistaken) which quoted an insider with some knowledge of Trump's plans for the next election. The insider was quoted as saying that their strategy is to keep close tabs on all of the Democratic candidates, and look for slip-ups, misstatements, or phrases that can be taken out of context (e.g., "basket of deplorables," "you didn't build that"), and use that to absolutely hammer on the eventual Democratic nominee.

The insider said (paraphrasing), "Trump's plan is to stay at 45% approval, and make the other guy completely radioactive."
I don't see how Trump can make anyone comparatively radioactive, but the trick is to make the opponent look defensive and weak. The psychology of choosing between an incumbent and a challenger makes the choice in 2020 different than 2016, when both candidates were challengers.

Voters may say "Yeah, Trump is a douchebag - can't stand the guy myself. But I'm getting a steady paycheck and pay increases, and that wasn't happening a few years ago. I don't wanna just reverse everything because Trump's a d-bag."

One thing Trump had better stay away from, though, is Obamacare. If voters lose their coverage from Obamacare, it would be a potential nightmare even if the economy is still growing. Much worse if it's not. Healthcare is clearly a winning issue for the democrats.
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Old 04-23-2019, 12:26 AM
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I think he’ll probably be re-elected. I think once again, the Bernie base will have a temper tantrum when he doesn’t get the nomination and vote for Kremlin supported third party candidates.
Really, dude, we've been over this. The vast majority of Bernie's voters supported Clinton in the general election, full stop. Stop spreading the Kremlin's lies for them.
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Old 04-23-2019, 12:30 AM
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I think Democrats are making a major mistake by shifting hard to the left. Today Elizabeth Sanders wants to forgive college debt and make college free. Almost all the candidates want some form of single payer health care. They all want open borders, and the more radical of the bunch want to abolish ICE. They all want higher taxes and more spending. This plays well with the base (ie liberals on this board, for example), but is toxic to middle America and the southern border states. If Democrats keep tacking left, they will cement their status as the party of the coastal big cities, and will get wiped out in the electoral college.

Then you have AOC and the heavily funded progressive left like the Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America, who are threatening a coup from within by primarying moderate Democrats. That's why Nancy Pelosi is fighting them.

Aside from the Presidency, the Democrats risk making the same mistake as the Tea Party and nominating a bunch of people too radical to win in winnable districts, thereby snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Which Democratic candidates have called for open borders or abolishing ICE? Oh, right, none of them!
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Old 04-23-2019, 12:39 AM
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Anyway: I don't like Trump's chances and may actually consider betting real money if I can get even odds. The economy can't get much better and will likely get worse, he's not going to stop saying or doing stupid shit, he now faces the danger of Congressional investigations into said stupid shit, and he can't really hope for a weaker opponent than he had last time. So his best case scenario is that he can repeat his last performance and keep it close; IOW, hope that none of the large number of things that could go wrong for him do go wrong, and then that he hits the Electoral College inside straight again. It's, terrifyingly, not impossible that he could get re-elected, but I think his chances are significantly less than 50%.

Of course, that doesn't take into account the possibility of vote fraud, which is a very real menace, but there's no practical way to predict in advance how significant a factor it is likely to be.
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Old 04-23-2019, 02:40 AM
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The 15% threshold may prevent that ugliness. The DNC's rules are relatively proportional in small fields but the threshold rule can skew that pretty significantly. It comes with a potential downside if it is producing significantly less than proportional results. Essentially the rules ignore the votes of those who selected candidates who wind up below threshold. Think pissed off voters blaming the DNC for disenfranchisement and holding it against the nominee. It's probably less ugly than a contested convention, though. It might not even be noticed if the results aren't too far off proportional. We won't be able to miss a contested convention.
What happens if no one gets over 15%? Are the delegates then uncommitted? How about if only one gets over that level? Do they get them all? These are not hypothetical questions. It's quite possible either or both will happen.
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Old 04-23-2019, 02:55 AM
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Keep in mind that in a caucus situation, participants can see in real time if their candidate is going to clear the 15% hurdle and switch to their second choice if necessary. So with a very large field of candidates, a caucus may actually be more democratic than a primary election.

But I don't really get why a contested convention would be a disaster for the Democrats. Of course it could turn ugly and divisive, but so could a close primary battle that doesn't result in a contested convention.
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Old 04-23-2019, 06:42 AM
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Keep in mind that in a caucus situation, participants can see in real time if their candidate is going to clear the 15% hurdle and switch to their second choice if necessary. So with a very large field of candidates, a caucus may actually be more democratic than a primary election.

But I don't really get why a contested convention would be a disaster for the Democrats. Of course it could turn ugly and divisive, but so could a close primary battle that doesn't result in a contested convention.
The worst kind of contested election for Dems would be a centrist candidate "stealing" an election from a more hardline progressive. Think Beto O'Rourke or Joe Biden "stealing" an election from Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. The more ardent progressives wouldn't accept the outcome.
  #43  
Old 04-23-2019, 07:09 AM
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The worst kind of contested election for Dems would be a centrist candidate "stealing" an election from a more hardline progressive. Think Beto O'Rourke or Joe Biden "stealing" an election from Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren. The more ardent progressives wouldn't accept the outcome.
I think the biggest obstacle for Democrats are the Berniebots. They're just as much a personality cult as the MAGAbots. If they perceive that Bernie should have won the nomination but doesn't, they'll sit out the election and hand a second term to that felon in the White House.
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Old 04-23-2019, 07:28 AM
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I think Democrats are making a major mistake by shifting hard to the left. Today Elizabeth Sanders wants to forgive college debt and make college free. Almost all the candidates want some form of single payer health care. They all want open borders, and the more radical of the bunch want to abolish ICE. They all want higher taxes and more spending. This plays well with the base (ie liberals on this board, for example), but is toxic to middle America and the southern border states. If Democrats keep tacking left, they will cement their status as the party of the coastal big cities, and will get wiped out in the electoral college.

Then you have AOC and the heavily funded progressive left like the Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America, who are threatening a coup from within by primarying moderate Democrats. That's why Nancy Pelosi is fighting them.

Aside from the Presidency, the Democrats risk making the same mistake as the Tea Party and nominating a bunch of people too radical to win in winnable districts, thereby snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
Single payer health care (and variations) has been a Democratic goal for decades. "Open borders" is a bullshit characterization of most of the candidates' positions. "Higher taxes and more spending" than the present level is also entirely mundane, and nothing new -- is it really shocking that one party is in favor of higher taxes on the rich, and more social spending, than the other?

In short, this is a false characterization of the Democratic field that no doubt makes the GOP spin-meisters very happy to see "out in the wild".
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Old 04-23-2019, 07:28 AM
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Voters may say "Yeah, Trump is a douchebag - can't stand the guy myself. But I'm getting a steady paycheck and pay increases, and that wasn't happening a few years ago. I don't wanna just reverse everything because Trump's a d-bag."
There's the realistic path to re-election the thread title asks for. For very very large part of American society the pay stub on the 30th of this month beats "institutional order" over a generation, and the figure of the "a**hole boss" is just a common trope of life, not a deal-breaker.

The smear machine will be at it as usual. If the Dems on top of it get mired in a huge kerfuffle about trying to figure out who would be the absolutely perfect candidate, either from the ideological or electability viewpoints, that just oils the gears.

Last edited by JRDelirious; 04-23-2019 at 07:30 AM.
  #46  
Old 04-23-2019, 07:49 AM
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I think Democrats are making a major mistake by shifting hard to the left. Today Elizabeth Sanders wants to forgive college debt and make college free. Almost all the candidates want some form of single payer health care. They all want open borders, and the more radical of the bunch want to abolish ICE. They all want higher taxes and more spending. This plays well with the base (ie liberals on this board, for example), but is toxic to middle America and the southern border states. If Democrats keep tacking left, they will cement their status as the party of the coastal big cities, and will get wiped out in the electoral college.

Then you have AOC and the heavily funded progressive left like the Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America, who are threatening a coup from within by primarying moderate Democrats. That's why Nancy Pelosi is fighting them.

Aside from the Presidency, the Democrats risk making the same mistake as the Tea Party and nominating a bunch of people too radical to win in winnable districts, thereby snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

What a bunch of recycled pablum.

Quote:
They all want open borders
Right-speak for "they don't hate Latinos". Who precisely is for open borders?

Quote:
They all want higher taxes and more spending.
We need higher taxes to rein in the Republican deficits. We need more spending on infrastructure and education.

Quote:
but is toxic to middle America and the southern border states.
What a quaint term! Southern border states? Like Kentucky, Tennessee, and Missouri where Democrats have no chance in no matter what they do. Kamala Harris could fellate an AK-47 and still not carry Kentucky.

Quote:
heavily funded progressive left
Ha. By who? Don't tell me- the eeeeeeeeeeeeevil George Soros.
  #47  
Old 04-23-2019, 09:34 AM
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Keep in mind, by the way, that the border areas are all Democratic. Clinton won every county that borders on Mexico. Apparently the people who live there don't actually fear Hispanics as much as Republicans think they should.
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Old 04-23-2019, 09:37 AM
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Keep in mind, by the way, that the border areas are all Democratic. Clinton won every county that borders on Mexico. Apparently the people who live there don't actually fear Hispanics as much as Republicans think they should.
A lot of people who live in the border states ARE Hispanic, and Hispanics generally vote Democrat.
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Old 04-23-2019, 09:40 AM
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Democrats are energized.
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Old 04-23-2019, 09:51 AM
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Keep in mind, by the way, that the border areas are all Democratic. Clinton won every county that borders on Mexico. Apparently the people who live there don't actually fear Hispanics as much as Republicans think they should.
Oh nuts, my bad. I thought SS was referring to Civil War border states. Still- California and New Mexico are blue and will stay that way, Texas is red and will stay that way. The only state that borders Mexico that is in play is Arizona.
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