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Old 04-24-2019, 10:36 AM
Velocity is online now
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Trump would get much less done in a 2nd term than in his 1st


........and he already didn't do much in his 1st term.

If he is reelected, he'll probably only enjoy a Republican Senate majority until 2022. He would also be the most lame-duck of lame-duck presidents; the GOP would hurriedly move on from him and begin preparing for 2024 the moment Election Night 2020 ended.

Ginsburg and Breyer might be hard-pressed to hold on for two more years, but once the Democratic Senate majority kicked in after the 2022 midterms they would be okay - they couldn't be replaced by Trump nominees anymore. (Their departures would still create a 5-3 or 5-2 conservative majority on SCOTUS, but that would be filled in by the next Democratic president.)

But there would be more vacancies in the circuit courts to fill - but even those would be obstructed once Democrats took the Senate after the midterms.

It would pretty much just be obstructionism for his second term.
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Old 04-24-2019, 11:05 AM
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I think in a second term (heaven forbid!) you would see more of a three (or possibly four) way deadlock.

Although there is a shocking number of actual Trump lovers in congress, and the people who go along with him despite disagreeing are morally bankrupt, the latter group does exist, and would have less to fear from Trump when he can no longer hold his Nuremberg campaign rallies. Some of them might still worry about the appeal he has in their home districts, but he'd be much less of a threat when he's not constantly running for ... president, and there would be more open dissent.
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Old 04-24-2019, 11:39 AM
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Although he - and the right - would be energised by his reelection, and the left - and the centre- would be aghast and demoralised. It could mean he gets a successor of his liking in the 2024 election.
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Old 04-24-2019, 11:41 AM
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Oh, and likely at least one more Supreme Court pick.
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Old 04-24-2019, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
........and he already didn't do much in his 1st term.

If he is reelected, he'll probably only enjoy a Republican Senate majority until 2022. He would also be the most lame-duck of lame-duck presidents; the GOP would hurriedly move on from him and begin preparing for 2024 the moment Election Night 2020 ended.

Ginsburg and Breyer might be hard-pressed to hold on for two more years, but once the Democratic Senate majority kicked in after the 2022 midterms they would be okay - they couldn't be replaced by Trump nominees anymore. (Their departures would still create a 5-3 or 5-2 conservative majority on SCOTUS, but that would be filled in by the next Democratic president.)

But there would be more vacancies in the circuit courts to fill - but even those would be obstructed once Democrats took the Senate after the midterms.

It would pretty much just be obstructionism for his second term.
The trouble with this assessment is, a lot of the chickens are almost certainly going to come home to roost if he's re-elected. We have the China trade war thingy, we have North Korea, we have his ongoing (now off the spotlight) fight with NATO and the EU, we have the various immigration issues coming to a head...the list goes on and on. He might not have any choice but to get stuff done, and I don't know about you, but the stuff it looks like is lining up is not stuff I want him to be any part of. Then there is the fact that it's possible, maybe even probable that he would get another shot at yet another USSC nomination...which would be a disaster, IMHO.

And this is just stuff I can think of off the top of my head. It doesn't include unknown unknowns. Who knows what might be brewing out there that will drag the US into gawds know what during the next term? Or if the economy really tanks, or starts too? Or...GAH! It's freaking frightening to even contemplate all the stuff that looks like it will happen, that might happen and that we don't even know about and having this idiot as president.
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  #6  
Old 04-24-2019, 12:30 PM
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........and he already didn't do much in his 1st term.
I have to disagree with this statement. He's done tremendous damage by appointing grifters in every position to gut the government from the inside. If he manages to get re-elected, I can't imagine he'll feel any restraint short of complete demolition. The most a Democratic Senate could do is refuse to confirm his appointees, which will just further the destruction with vacancies and/or "acting" grifters.

Last edited by Twoflower; 04-24-2019 at 12:32 PM.
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Old 04-24-2019, 01:14 PM
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I thought on Election Night that he'd be merely our own Berlusconi, and I think that's how it's worked out so far. If robbing us blind is the worst tangible thing he's done, and I think it really is, then the comparison holds up.

But ask again after the Venezuela invasion, coming right in time for the next campaign.
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Old 04-25-2019, 03:11 AM
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Berlusconi wasn't a dumbass, though. Anyway, according to Trumpykins, Ivanka will be running in 2024. As if there's more brainless idiots in that family apart from Jr and Eric/Erik/Airick?
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Old 04-25-2019, 09:41 AM
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he'll probably only enjoy a Republican Senate majority until 2022
Is the 2022 "class" of US Senators one that contains a lot of vulnerable Republicans, such that a Democratic takeover of the Senate is likely in a way that it's not in 2020?
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Old 04-25-2019, 11:23 AM
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No, not to my knowledge. The biggest dickwad of them all is Turtle McConnell. Even with 16% approval he may very well win reelection.
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Old 04-25-2019, 12:33 PM
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There will be 12 D and 22 R seats in play in 2022. The lay of the land might be different after the 2020 races, with the same counts.
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Old 04-25-2019, 12:48 PM
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Keep in mind, right now we are seeing a Trump that has to worry about being re-elected. Imagine how off the chain he will be when he doesn't have that problem.
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Old 04-25-2019, 12:56 PM
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... he'll probably only enjoy a Republican Senate majority until 2022. ...
ISTM that this is the most speculative part of the OP. Which 2022 seats (currently held by a Republican) do you feel confident enough today to predict the Dems will win?

Last edited by HurricaneDitka; 04-25-2019 at 12:56 PM.
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Old 04-25-2019, 01:12 PM
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If Trump is going to get less done in a (shudder) second term than he did in his first, how do you build less wall than he so far has? Dismantle existing fencing?
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Old 04-25-2019, 01:39 PM
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how do you build less wall than he so far has? Dismantle existing fencing?


I could see that. He finds just enough loose coins under the cushions of medicare to start tearing down existing fences, but not enough to start replacing them. Of course he'll think he's playing chicken with the Democrats over the funding for the replacement walls, but the Democrats will be quite happy to just let him look like an idiot.
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