Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 12-12-2018, 01:05 PM
MovieMogul MovieMogul is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 15,836
The 2018 Road to the Oscars

Well, the 91st Academy Awards approach and some major predictors are on the table now: nominations for the Screen Actors Guild (SAG), the Golden Globes (GG), and the Critics Choice awards (CC—commonly seen as the most accurate outside of the guilds), plus winners of the New York and Los Angeles film critics (NY, LA) and the National Board of Review (NBR), the only film award body as old as the Oscars themselves.

So here are those nominations and/or winners (*) cited so far in the key categories


PICTURE
Black Panther – CC, GG, SAG+
BlacKkKlansman – CC, GG, SAG+
Bohemian Rhapsody – GG, SAG+
Crazy Rich Asians – GG, SAG+
The Favourite – CC, GG
First Man – CC
Green Book – CC, GG, NBR*
If Beale Street Could Talk – CC, GG
Mary Poppins Returns – CC, GG
Roma – CC, LA*, NY*
A Star Is Born – CC, GG, SAG+
Vice – CC, GG


(+ SAG doesn’t have a “Best Picture” but it does have Best Ensemble, which has some correlation to an eventual Oscar nod for Best Picture)


ACTOR
Christian Bale, Vice – CC, GG, SAG
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born – CC, GG, SAG
Willem Dafoe, At Eternity’s Gate – CC, GG
Ryan Gosling, First Man – CC
Ethan Hawke, First Reformed – CC, LA*, NY*
Lucas Hedges, Boy Erased – GG
Rami Malek, Bohemian Rhapsody – CC, GG, SAG
Lin-Manuel Miranda, Mary Poppins Returns – GG
Viggo Mortensen, Green Book – CC, GG, NBR*, SAG
Robert Redford, The Old Man & the Gun – GG
John C. Reilly, Stan & Ollie – GG
John David Washington, BlacKkKlansman – GG, SAG


ACTRESS
Yalitza Aparicio, Roma – CC
Emily Blunt, Mary Poppins Returns – CC, GG, SAG
Glenn Close, The Wife – CC, GG, SAG
Toni Collette, Hereditary – CC
Olivia Colman, The Favourite – CC, GG, LA*, SAG
Elsie Fisher, Eighth Grade – GG
Regina Hall, Support the Girls – NY*
Nicole Kidman, Destroyer – GG
Lady Gaga, A Star Is Born – CC, GG, NBR*, SAG
Melissa McCarthy, Can You Ever Forgive Me? – CC, GG, SAG
Rosamund Pike, A Private War – GG
Charlize Theron, Tully – GG
Constance Wu, Crazy Rich Asians – GG


SUPPORTING ACTOR
Maherhala Ali, Green Book – CC, GG, SAG
Timothee Chalamet, Beautiful Boy – CC, GG, SAG
Adam Driver, BlacKkKlansman – CC, GG, SAG
Sam Elliott, A Star Is Born – CC, NBR*, SAG
Richard E. Grant, Can You Ever Forgive Me? – CC, GG, NY*, SAG
Michael B. Jordan, Black Panther – CC
Sam Rockwell, Vice – GG
Steven Yeun, Burning – LA*


SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Amy Adams, Vice – CC, GG, SAG
Emily Blunt, A Quiet Place – SAG
Claire Foy, First Man – CC, GG
Nicole Kidman, Boy Erased – CC
Regina King, If Beale Street Could Talk – CC, GG, LA*, NBR*, NY*
Margot Robbie, Mary Queen of Scots – SAG
Emma Stone, The Favourite – CC, GG, SAG
Rachel Weisz, The Favourite – CC, GG, SAG


DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle, First Man – CC
Bradley Cooper, A Star Is Born – CC, GG, NBR*
Alfonso Cuaron, Roma – CC, GG, NY*
Peter Farrelly, Green Book – CC, GG
Debra Granik, Leave No Trace – LA*
Yorgos Lanthimos, The Favourite – CC
Spike Lee, BlacKkKlansman – CC, GG
Adam McKay, Vice – CC, GG


Some of these major contenders haven't been released yet (Vice, Beale St., Poppins) and others are/were in limited release, but for these categories, the person taking home the Academy Award in a couple months is listed somewhere here.

As always, please no thread-shitting. Yes, great movies are often ignored and overlooked, and it's as much about politics and popularity as quality, but every year, some really deserving parties (above or below the line) do get recognized and other terrific films get visibility that people might not have otherwise heard of, so that at least is worth celebrating.

I'll be updating the thread as additional developments occur (primarily the remaining guild nominations as well as the eventual winners).
  #2  
Old 12-16-2018, 11:12 AM
Sam Lowry Sam Lowry is online now
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Houston
Posts: 2,977
Is this the place to discuss movie chances? I'm very interested to see how streaming stuff shakes out with Roma. I went to see Roma in the theater on Thursday, and it's absolutely amazing, it's gorgeous and had some different kind of sound system thing where it was remarkably immersive. It won't be a bad movie at home, it will still be as emotional and beautiful, but it won't be the same, and it'll be a lot easier to get distracted and not wrapped up in the story, the movie does start a bit slow. But I guess a lot of awards voters would have been watching from screeners anyway. But also I don't know if the awards voters would be bothered by Netflix messing with the movie distribution system or not care.
  #3  
Old 12-17-2018, 03:07 PM
MovieMogul MovieMogul is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 15,836
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sam Lowry View Post
Is this the place to discuss movie chances? I'm very interested to see how streaming stuff shakes out with Roma. I went to see Roma in the theater on Thursday, and it's absolutely amazing, it's gorgeous and had some different kind of sound system thing where it was remarkably immersive. It won't be a bad movie at home, it will still be as emotional and beautiful, but it won't be the same, and it'll be a lot easier to get distracted and not wrapped up in the story, the movie does start a bit slow. But I guess a lot of awards voters would have been watching from screeners anyway. But also I don't know if the awards voters would be bothered by Netflix messing with the movie distribution system or not care.
Netflix has a very checkered reputation with the industry. It's no secret that they really don't care about theatrical release and only concede to it to the point that there's some positive buzz that comes with it. For Awards-track films, they are mostly interested in (a) Festivals, and (b) streaming. Theatrical is for qualifying for the Oscars and providing visibility to their original content to gain more subscribers. Cuaron had essentially a blank check creatively to make Roma (which is a magnificent film) so I'm sure he's relatively happy but most filmmakers do value the theatrical experience and want their films seen more than just on someone's TV or computer at home.

Not sure how any of that will influence the voters who--you're right--will probably see most of the films in contention at home. But Netflix has been pushing hard to make sure as many Academy voters get to see it in a theater so that will have a bearing on how the film does in many of the technical/craft categories.
  #4  
Old 01-04-2019, 03:54 PM
MovieMogul MovieMogul is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 15,836
Well, the Golden Globes are this weekend, and while their subset of voters is relatively tiny and not industry-related (being foreign journalists and all), it's still a good way to feel the temperature of the room, especially based on what the response is to the winners and what kind of speeches said winners make.

in the meantime, the PGA (Producers Guild) has turned in their nominations, and it should be noted that despite being famous for being far more inclined to embrace popular money-making films, since its inception as an award-giving body, no film has ever won the Best Picture Oscar without at least being nominated by the PGA. Their nominees:

Black Panther
BlackKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
Crazy Rich Asians
The Favourite
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Roma
A Star Is Born
Vice
  #5  
Old 01-04-2019, 07:02 PM
Equipoise's Avatar
Equipoise Equipoise is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2000
Location: Chicago
Posts: 10,046
While I'm sorry to not see First Man or If Beale Street Could Talk on there, I'm good with all the nominees. I've seen and liked them all. I'm thrilled for everyone involved in A Quiet Place. I didn't expect that at all.

As almost always happens every year, none of my favorite movies get nominated for anything, so I have no dog in the fight. I'm just happy for everyone and who/whatever wins whatever, I'll be happy for them.
  #6  
Old 01-04-2019, 11:02 PM
MadTheSwine MadTheSwine is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Location: Michigan
Posts: 4,022
While I really want BoRap to do well, I suspect Vice and Black Panther to pick up all the awards.Betting Vice wins every Globe nominated for
  #7  
Old 01-06-2019, 05:53 AM
Tangent's Avatar
Tangent Tangent is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Sep 2002
Location: Cowtown
Posts: 9,681
I mostly wait and watch movies when they hit home video, so of all the ones from all the different categories in the OP, I've only seen Black Panther, A Quiet Place, and Hereditary.

I liked all three of them, Toni Colette is excellent in Hereditary, but the last act of that movie is so bonkers it might be offputting for some voters.
  #8  
Old 01-06-2019, 06:42 AM
Alessan's Avatar
Alessan Alessan is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2000
Location: Tel Aviv
Posts: 23,778
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadTheSwine View Post
While I really want BoRap to do well, I suspect Vice and Black Panther to pick up all the awards.Betting Vice wins every Globe nominated for
Its reviews are decidedly mixed - and Bale already has an Oscar.
  #9  
Old 01-06-2019, 07:30 AM
Jonathan Chance Jonathan Chance is offline
Domo Arigato Mister Moderato
Moderator
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Location: On the run with Kilroy
Posts: 22,057
I'm really amazed that Bohemian Rhapsody is getting the awards love. Sure, it was fun, but it was pretty formulaic and broke no real ground. If Freddie hadn't died of AIDS it wouldn't be made at all.

I'm surprised to not see Eighth Grade on the list. For my money, it and BlacKkKlansman were the two best movies of the year. Both had a sort of in-your-face realism thing going that really hit me while also being funny and moving at times.
  #10  
Old 01-07-2019, 01:42 PM
MovieMogul MovieMogul is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 15,836
Working through the Golden Globes

First of all, let's set aside the absurd category frauds of musicals A STAR IS BORN and BOHEMIAN RHAPSODY being in the drama category and drama (w/some humor) GREEN BOOK being in the Musical/Comedy category.

Best Actor: winners Bale & Malek appear to be the two front-runners now. Of last night's 6 acting winners, 4 were playing real historical characters and over the last couple of decades, 50% of the lead actor/actress Oscar winners have played real people. Bale has won an Oscar before (in Supporting) but his transformation is remarkable here and THE FIGHTER was 8 years ago.

Best Actress: A STAR IS BORN's lobbying for the Drama category probably cost Lady Gaga the award to Glenn Close. Currently, Close has 6 Oscar nods and 0 wins, so her inevitable nomination for THE WIFE will mean an Academy record for most nods for an Actress without ever winning. This gives her a leg up in a similar way that Al Pacino had when up for Oscars 7 & 8 in 1992 (he ended up winning the Lead award for SCENT OF A WOMAN).

Gaga's absence from the Musical/Comedy category also meant a fairly easy win for Olivia Colman for THE FAVOURITE and not only is her performance terrific, but her acceptance speech was charming, adorable, and self-effacing (Close's speech was fierce and genuine so also a real winner). It would be foolish to underestimate Gaga, but the two big narratives right now are (a) Close's legacy, and (b) Colman headlining the film that will probably earn the most Oscar nominations of any film (likely in the 8-11 range). And unlike Pacino's almost self-parodying SCENT, Close's THE WIFE is Glenn near the top of her game. Gaga may have to just settle for a Best Song Oscar (where she is a virtual lock).

Supporting Actor really seems to be leaning toward Mahershala Ali for GREEN BOOK. While he did win the Oscar for MOONLIGHT just two years ago, he didn't win the Globe back then so this might have been in part a corrective (though clearly the HFPA loved the film, giving it more awards than any other title last night). Winning 2 Oscars in 3 years is *very* unusual for any actor (it's only happened a handful of times) but there doesn't appear to be any truly rock solid alternative right now among his competitors, but one might emerge if SAG presents a spoiler.

Supporting Actress: Regina King is running the boards for her performance in IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK so the only real rock solid alternative will also come from SAG, where she didn't secure a nomination. VICE will be Amy Adams's 6th Oscar nomination so she might be seen as "due" thought she's 30+ years Close's junior. Both Emma Stone and Rachel Weisz could benefit from really strong FAVOURITE support, but they both already have Oscars and a vote split is expected. Again, it's King's to lose right now.

Director: Alfonso Cuaron really does appear to be the one to beat. No director has ever won the Oscar for a foreign-language film before (Ang Lee's CROUCHING TIGER was the closest, because he won the DGA) but ROMA is almost the polar opposite of GRAVITY (his previous win) in every conceivable way and a lock for Foreign Language Film. Again, the big factor will be which other directors make Oscar's final 5 since there are few other certainties given the field.

Picture is still the most up-in-the-air. It's generally agreed what most of the final Academy nominees will be, but which comes out ahead at the end from a field of 8-9 titles (and a preferential ballot) is most uncertain. Certainly, there's a lot of love for BOHEMIAN but its director is toxic (nobody mentioned him last night) so its odds are low despite last night's win.

Similarly, of the 4 films up for Best Picture last night that probe the issue of race, the big winner was the only one directed by a white guy that looks at the subject from the white guy's perspective (GB is also not as good a movie, IMHO, as BEALE ST or the pair of BLACK PANTHER and --KLANSMAN). It is the DRIVING MISS DAISY of the season and you'd think things might have changed some in the last 30 years, but perhaps not as much as one might have hoped.

The DGA nominees come out tomorrow and the SAGs are at the end of the month, just a few days after the Oscar nominations are announced.
  #11  
Old 01-07-2019, 01:43 PM
MovieMogul MovieMogul is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 15,836
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance View Post
I'm surprised to not see Eighth Grade on the list. For my money, it and BlacKkKlansman were the two best movies of the year. Both had a sort of in-your-face realism thing going that really hit me while also being funny and moving at times.
Eighth Grade is in a good position to get an Original Screenplay nomination by the Academy, but probably not much more than that.
  #12  
Old 01-07-2019, 01:46 PM
MovieMogul MovieMogul is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 15,836
Quote:
Originally Posted by MadTheSwine View Post
While I really want BoRap to do well, I suspect Vice and Black Panther to pick up all the awards.Betting Vice wins every Globe nominated for
VICE only went 1 for 6 (and PANTHER 0-for-3) while BO-RAP won both its categories and GREEN BOOK went 3-for-5.
  #13  
Old 01-08-2019, 03:02 PM
MovieMogul MovieMogul is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 15,836
Well, both the Writers Guild and Directors Guild have come out with their nominations now. They rarely match 100% with the Academy's final choices--usually more in the 60-80% range (the guilds tend to be more conservative in their choices). Anyway, here they are:

DGA
Blackkklansman (Spike Lee)
Green Book (Peter Farrelly)
Roma (Alfonso Cuaron)
A Star Is Born (Bradley Cooper)
Vice (Adam McKay)


WGA
Original Screenplay
Eighth Grade
Green Book
A Quiet Place
Roma
Vice


Adapted Screenplay
Blackkklansman
Black Panther
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
If Beale Street Could Talk
A Star Is Born



Also, it should be noted that Alfonso Cuaron has now picked up Guild nominations in 5 categories: Producing, Directing, Writing, Cinematography, and Editing. If those all carry over to the Oscars (which most people think they will), it will be the first time ever that 1 person has been nominated 5 times in the same year for the same film, a really remarkable achievement (since most directors don't act as their own DPs).

Last edited by MovieMogul; 01-08-2019 at 03:03 PM.
  #14  
Old 01-14-2019, 12:59 PM
MovieMogul MovieMogul is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2000
Posts: 15,836
So The Critics Choice Awards were last night (this is the Broadcast Critics Association). Their awards have most closely lined up with eventual Oscar winners among all critics groups. For example, among last year's winners that had a direct corollary among Oscar categories, the CC got 16 out of 18 correct. In 2017, it was 11 out of 18. In 2016, 15 of 19 correct.

So last night, here were the winners, by film title:

ROMA (4) - Picture, Director, Cinematography, Foreign Language Film
BLACK PANTHER (3) - Production Design, Costumes, Visual Effects
FIRST MAN (2) - Score, Editing
IF BEALE STREET COULD TALK (2) - Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay
A STAR IS BORN (2) - Actress*, Song
VICE (2) - Actor, Makeup
FIRST REFORMED - Original Screenplay
GREEN BOOK - Supporting Actor
SPIDER-MAN: INTO THE SPIDER-VERSE - Animated Feature
THE WIFE - Actress*

(*Glenn Close and Lady Gaga tied)


So odds are, most of these winners will repeat with the Academy (note that among feature films, they didn't award Sound, Sound Editing or Documentary)

Last edited by MovieMogul; 01-14-2019 at 01:00 PM.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 03:53 PM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright © 2018 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017