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  #151  
Old 03-27-2020, 04:35 PM
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A great explanation:

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Originally Posted by Aspidistra View Post
One mistake you're making is the same mistake EVERYONE made until well into this epidemic - underestimating the incredible infectiousness of this disease (which means a rate of transmission that's through the roof), combined with the fact that it's infectious all the way through its incubation period. This means that when and if you decide that actually you were wrong and you'd like to slow the rate of infection, whatever you do will do absolutely nothing for five days at least, and it takes maybe 10 days to 2 weeks for the full effect of whatever you did to actually be seen, and you get to decide if it was enough.

So this is how it looks in practise. You're the mayor of a city of 1 million, you've calculated that if the disease just sweeps through it will take out 1% which is 10,000 and this is sad but survivable.

Here's some other plausible ballpark numbers: You have 200 ICU beds in your city (20 per 100,000 - that's the norm in the US), 5% of infections need an ICU bed, and half of them are normally full (with other illnesses). Say on March 20th 0.1% of your population has an infection, which means that 1,000 are infected, 50 need ICU beds and of those, 40 will be okay with that care, but 10 will die anyway. Oh, and your growth in the infection rate is 20% (very low, for the 'not doing anything' scenario. Here's how it plays out from here.

March 21st. 200 more people are infected, 10 need an ICU bed. Your ICU occupancy rate is 100 non-covid, 60 covid, 40 free. If this has been growing steadily all feb/march then one of those covid patients resolves (either by dying or getting better), so now you have 41 free beds.
March 22nd. 240 new infections, 12 need a bed, 1 case resolves so you have 30 free beds
March 23rd. 288 new infections, 14 need a bed, 1 resolves and you have 17 free beds. You realise you're going to run out of beds VERY quickly if this keeps up, so you announce sweeping restrictions. Total lockdown! Nothing happening in the town except essential infrastructure, healthcare, groceries
March 24th. nothing happens to the infection rate, it's still 20%, because all the new cases are people who actually got infected 5 to 10 days ago before there was a lockdown. 345 new cases, 17 need a bed, 1 resolves, so now you've got one ICU bed for all tomorrow's cases
March 25th. nothing happens to the infection rate, 415 new cases, 21 need a bed, one gets it, the other 20 are all going to die. 16 of them would have lived if the hospital hadn't been overwhelmed.
March 26th.nothing happens to the infection rate. 497 new cases, 25 need a bed, 2 can get one because today TWICE as many old cases resolved, other 23 die, 18 of them excess-deaths (would have lived with care)
March 27th.nothing happens to the infection rate (we're still getting the cases that were infected on the 22nd and before, right?). 598 new cases, 30 need ICU, 28 can't get it, 22 excess deaths
March 28th. Finally the infection rate twitches down slightly, to 18% (this is based off the Italy data). That still translates to 645 new cases, 32 ICU need, 30 can't get it, 24 excess deaths
March 29th. Infection rate 16%, 676 new cases, 34 ICU need, now we're up to 4 resolving per day but that still means 30 out of luck and 24 excess deaths, again
March 30th. Infection rate 14%, 683 new cases, 34 ICU need, 4 resolve, 30 no bed, 24 excess deaths.

It's now been a week since you decided you needed to do something about slowing the spread of the disease and in that time 100 of your citizens died purely from lack of medical care, rather than from the disease.

Here's how it goes in week 2

March 31: 12% rate 671 cases, 4 resolve, 30 no bed, 24 excess deaths
April 1: 10% rate 626 cases, 8 resolve, 23 no bed, 18 excess deaths. OK that's still bad but it's less than yesterday. Maybe you're winning!
April 2: 8% rate 551 cases, 8 resolve, 15 no bed, 12 excess deaths
April 3: 8% rate 595 cases, 8 resolve, 22 no bed, 17 excess deaths
April 4: 8% rate 643 cases, 12 resolve, 20 no bed, 16 excess deaths
April 5: 8% rate 695 cases, 12 resolve, 23 no bed, 18 excess deaths
April 6: 8% rate 750 cases, 12 resolve, 25 no bed, 20 excess deaths.

At this point you realise that 8% is as low as your rate of increase is likely to go, because people still have a certain degree of contact/transmission risk through healthcare workers, grocery stores and other essential services. Your total number of infections in the city is now about 10,000 - that's 1% of the population, nowhere near herd-immunity levels or even bringing-down-the-transmission-rate levels. You've got about another month till it starts to reach vaguely-plausible lessened-transmission levels, during which time you keep having about 1% of new cases die because sadly they're just gonna, and a growing number, getting up to four times that dying because they couldn't get a hospital bed. By the end of the outbreak you actually have close to 50,000 dead in the city, the vast majority of which died through lack of medical care. Oh, and I never modelled-in '20% of your ICU staff had to go into isolation because they caught the disease off their patients, and now you only have 160 beds'

You don't get re-elected
Plus great conclusion!
  #152  
Old 03-27-2020, 04:45 PM
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Yeaaaa, OK. I guess if you feel that the lurid "drowning in your own blood" is much better expressed as "lungs turning to leather"... go for it. Whatever.

You just keep on being you.
  #153  
Old 03-27-2020, 04:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Euphonious Polemic View Post
Yeaaaa, OK. I guess if you feel that the lurid "drowning in your own blood" is much better expressed as "lungs turning to leather"... go for it. Whatever.

You just keep on being you.
It's a better reflection of the pathophysiology, that's all. Look, being a fucking rocket scientist doesn't qualify you to discuss ICU care, or to suddenly become an epidemiologist who's decided that the R0 of this thing is 4-6, or whatever the hell. That's just dilettantism.

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  #154  
Old 03-27-2020, 05:11 PM
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Folks might want to look at the protocols for being extubated, kinda involves being certain the patient is capable of breathing on their own.
When they did it to me it was 4 to 6 hours of fully conscious hell with a tube stuck down my throat.

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  #155  
Old 03-27-2020, 05:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Shmendrik View Post
Is there any evidence that even relatively strong "social distancing" measures will be sufficient to prevent the collapse of the healthcare system, given the necessity of people circulating for food production, distribution, and essential industry? Have we actually seen this work anywhere?
This strikes me as a ludicrous question since the whole pandemic isn't even 3 months old yet. Why don't you tell us why you think it would be better NOT to do social distancing?
  #156  
Old 03-27-2020, 05:33 PM
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Originally Posted by Shmendrik View Post
Is there any evidence that even relatively strong "social distancing" measures will be sufficient to prevent the collapse of the healthcare system, given the necessity of people circulating for food production, distribution, and essential industry? Have we actually seen this work anywhere? Like I said, for logistical reasons we can't achieve a Wuhan level of distancing anywhere else.

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My current understanding is that no, it won't. It would have if it had been instituted when we knew it should be done, instead of a month too late.

Testing and tracking and isolating positive testers would really help even now, but that is impossible with our system of governance, apparently.

Frankly, if I have ever been fed up with our system of governance before, it was as nothing compared to this extreme rage I feel all the time. It's really unhealthy.
  #157  
Old 03-27-2020, 05:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Stranger On A Train View Post
Actually, even after researchers knew how HIV was being transmitted and that AIDS (then often referred to as "Gay-Related ImmunoDeficiency Syndrome" by those on the Religious Right) there was opposition within the Reagan Administration to releasing information. It was then-Surgeon General C. Everett Koop--who was an evangelical Christian and die-hard conservative--who essentially defied he administration and sent out the infamous "Understanding AIDS" pamphlet to every household, which pissed off a lot of people on both the left and right but kicked off the national conversation on how we should be viewing and treating patients with AIDS. (William F. Buckley wanted to tattoo all gay men and intravenous drug users, and his was far from the most extreme proposal.)

We need this kind of devotion to truth and duty right now. Instead, what we're getting is inadequate at best and dangerously misinformed at worst.

Stranger
It was those Religious Righters in the NYT who first published the acronym GRID

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gay-re...une_deficiency

And it was many gay activists who fervently opposed the closing of bathhouses which led to FAR more deaths then anything the Reagan Administration did. Randy Shilts And the Band Played On is a Pulitzer Prize winning account of the first years on the HIV epidemic. The Red Cross was also grossly incompetent in its handling of the epidemic.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC558319/
https://www.nytimes.com/1994/05/22/w...ids-probe.html
  #158  
Old 03-27-2020, 05:51 PM
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And I disagree: we actually *could* impose an authoritarian style lock-down if the president in coordination with governors wanted it done. But nobody has the grapefruits to pull the trigger for political reasons.
By 'political reasons', are you perhaps referring to the US Constitution? See, there's a little secret that governors and mayors imposing 'stay at home' orders don't want to say too loudly: It would not be legal in this country to just deny people the right of free association because the government has declared an emergency. For reasons, our constitutional rights are not negotiable.

(Please understand that I am not say that we should not be involved in a mass quarantine; I'm just responding to the notion that the government could lock everybody in their homes, if only the current elected leaders had the gumption to do it).
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Old 03-27-2020, 06:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Moriarty View Post
By 'political reasons', are you perhaps referring to the US Constitution? See, there's a little secret that governors and mayors imposing 'stay at home' orders don't want to say too loudly: It would not be legal in this country to just deny people the right of free association because the government has declared an emergency. For reasons, our constitutional rights are not negotiable.

(Please understand that I am not say that we should not be involved in a mass quarantine; I'm just responding to the notion that the government could lock everybody in their homes, if only the current elected leaders had the gumption to do it).
Within certain limits, martial law is likely constitutional provided that it spells out its intended effect and follows other relevant laws.
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Old 03-27-2020, 06:17 PM
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Within certain limits, martial law is likely constitutional provided that it spells out its intended effect and follows other relevant laws.
By 'other laws', do you mean the first amendment? How, pray tell, can a martial law abide by the restriction against Congress pass a lawing respecting the right of the people to peaceably assemble?
  #161  
Old 03-27-2020, 06:42 PM
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Sure it’s been said, but feel the need to emphasize no need for the rate of transmission to be the same for every city, country, age group, etc.
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  #162  
Old 03-27-2020, 06:55 PM
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Did I say give up? Did the OP? no. There is middle ground here. I am so goddamn tired of one extreme or the other in politics, in pandemics, in this whole country. I am done trying to communicate with people shouting from one end or the other, at each other. Can none of you read any more?
I've concluded that at this point in time everyone is scared to a certain extent, and that fear turns into anger.

There is no reasoned discourse or discussion at this time. It was bad enough before, but with this pandemic, now all you see (despite the prohibition in this whole section about political potshots) is complaints about Trump, veiled insults to skirt the board rules, and a complete refusal of otherwise reasonable people to engage this OP in what is a reasonable point of discussion.

Nobody wants anyone to die, nobody wants to place the well being of billionaires above others, nobody thinks that the elderly are lesser people, or that you can value a life with money....except to the extent that we always make policy tradeoffs regarding freedom and security versus safety.

But nobody can have that discussion right now.
  #163  
Old 03-27-2020, 07:29 PM
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By 'other laws', do you mean the first amendment? How, pray tell, can a martial law abide by the restriction against Congress pass a lawing respecting the right of the people to peaceably assemble?
Do a Google or Wiki search for martial law in the United States
  #164  
Old 03-27-2020, 07:40 PM
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By 'other laws', do you mean the first amendment? How, pray tell, can a martial law abide by the restriction against Congress pass a lawing respecting the right of the people to peaceably assemble?
I agree. Ex parte Milligan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_parte_Milligan

Martial law may not be declared where civilian courts are open and may only be used in areas of military operations "where war really prevails."

If we want to say that this is "war" then get ready for martial law when we have a "war" on drugs, poverty, crime, etc.
  #165  
Old 03-27-2020, 07:43 PM
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Thread winner!
Most Pit threads leave a shred of dignity. This is just brutal.
Excellent post.
Do we get to revisit it when he's wrong about the fatalistic 'seven to ten days' stuff?
  #166  
Old 03-27-2020, 08:18 PM
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Go to a McDonald's drive-through during a busy lunch with a big line and tell them you want to order 300 big macs.

When they freak out that it will take forever to make that many while you hold up the line as well as everyone inside the restaurant, complain that their signs say they serve billions and your order is a tiny fraction of that.

That's what is happening at emergency rooms only your Big Macs are the patients.

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  #167  
Old 03-27-2020, 09:13 PM
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OFFS. Patients are always sedated on a ventilator, unless they are comfortable being awake for it. They are invariably sedated for the process of inserting the big tube down their trachea. And "drowning in their own blood" is a crappy description of ARDS. This is a horrible enough disease without vaguely accurate lurid descriptions. ARDS could probably better be described as having your lungs turn to leather, if you want a horror movie phrase.

Expertise in one field doesn't really make people experts in all fields, however much they may think they are.
First of all, I've never pretended to be an epidemiologist, virologist, or a physician. I've read a fair number of books on epidemiology and virology but I think I've made it pretty clear that the guidance I've given is not my own but is from sources I consider to be authoritative and fact-based and is consistent with what the actual experts in the field are recommending.

Second, as several other posters have demonstrated, patients are not always sedated while under ventilation. Any patient that is being ventilated for days will almost certainly be sedated because it just isn't possible to rest or sleep in that condition, but when doctors need a patient to be responsive the patient has to be conscious and to describe having a tube down your throat forcing air into your lungs as uncomfortable is an understatement.

Third, I assume by "having your lungs turn to leather", you mean the scaring due to pulmonary fibrosis that sometimes occurs post-respiratory infection. This certainly results in a measurable reduction in perfusive capacity resulting in shortness of breath and discomfort among other problems, but the fundamental cause of acute respiratory distress is the break down of protective membrane of the alveoli which results in leakage of blood into the lungs. In severe cases, the lungs fill with plasma and it is literally like drowning as there is no longer a path for oxygen to reach whatever alveoli are still intact. Mayo Clinic webpage on Acute Respiratory Distress Syndrome

Quote:
Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
There is no reasoned discourse or discussion at this time. It was bad enough before, but with this pandemic, now all you see (despite the prohibition in this whole section about political potshots) is complaints about Trump, veiled insults to skirt the board rules, and a complete refusal of otherwise reasonable people to engage this OP in what is a reasonable point of discussion.
This is nonsense. There has been "reasoned discourse" on the question of the o.p., to which he and others have misinterpreted statistics, argued that people beyond their "productive years" (whatever that is) are not worth making sacrifices for, that the total number of deaths of even in the millions is "a drop in the bucket", and that if we would just push through this and let the epidemic take its natural course we could just return to normal tout suite. Many posters have made cogent, well-reasoned explanations of why none of these statements or assumptions aren't true, why the current measures in place are not an "overreacting" based upon the evidence we see in other countries that failed to act, what attendant damages would occur while the an uncontrolled epidemic puts millions of people in emergency rooms and denies critical response to other patients, how even a reduction in the peak rates of morbidity ("flattening the curve") may significantly improve the outcome, and why we are going to be facing a longer term economic recession regardless of what we do.

This is not a "both sides make good points," issue. Now, if the questions are how far we should go to save a life, how do we decide who to treat, how much of our normal economy is really critical to be in operation during a pandemic, what kind of protection do we need to offer to first responders and what should we be doing to limit their exposure even if it means letting a certain amount of petty crime occur, how much do we need to pay off corporate interests so we can also get assistance and security to those most in need, how do we know when the epidemic is peaked and we can back off, and so forth; those are all excellent questions that are subject to discussion and reasoned (e.g. factual) discourse. But whether we should do nothing (that will be of any real use) or do something that may be costly but have some chance of altering the outcome isn't even a worthwhile question to consider unless you are just fine with writing off millions of people in this country alone under the premise that it just isn't worthwhile to try to change the outcome or that by ignoring the outbreak everything will be fine for those not afflicted.

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  #168  
Old 03-27-2020, 09:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Shmendrik View Post
OFFS. Patients are always sedated on a ventilator, unless they are comfortable being awake for it. They are invariably sedated for the process of inserting the big tube down their trachea. And "drowning in their own blood" is a crappy description of ARDS. This is a horrible enough disease without vaguely accurate lurid descriptions. ARDS could probably better be described as having your lungs turn to leather, if you want a horror movie phrase.

Expertise in one field doesn't really make people experts in all fields, however much they may think they are.

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My mom was on a ventilator for months. She certainly wasn't sedated the whole time. (She wasn't especially comfortable, either.) It was pretty freaky when they took her out of her hospital room to go get a test or procedure. They unhooked her from the machine, and a guy attached a large plastic bellows to her tube, and stood there next to her, ventilating her by hand.
  #169  
Old 03-27-2020, 09:20 PM
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Do we get to revisit it when he's wrong about the fatalistic 'seven to ten days' stuff?
We can revisit it right now: New York Times: ‘People Are Dying’: Battling Coronavirus Inside a N.Y.C. Hospital

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  #170  
Old 03-27-2020, 09:23 PM
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Having intubated and ventilated hundreds of patients, it is exceedingly rare not to use sedation during ventilation. Perhaps in cases where there is essentially no gag reflex or in unusual cases where normal positioning is contraindicated. Extubation (taking the tube out) may be different. Some places may not have adequate medications, however. This is not so relevant to the discussion, which has in fact mostly been reasonable but not reassuring.
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  #171  
Old 03-27-2020, 09:31 PM
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If there were enough doctors and equipment, would it be so overhyped? About 2000 deaths in America out of how much population? Billions?
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  #172  
Old 03-27-2020, 10:27 PM
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Originally Posted by Shmendrik View Post
OFFS. Patients are always sedated on a ventilator, unless they are comfortable being awake for it. They are invariably sedated for the process of inserting the big tube down their trachea. And "drowning in their own blood" is a crappy description of ARDS. This is a horrible enough disease without vaguely accurate lurid descriptions. ARDS could probably better be described as having your lungs turn to leather, if you want a horror movie phrase.

Expertise in one field doesn't really make people experts in all fields, however much they may think they are.

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"Drowning in their own blood" was a quote directly from the article, from a ventilation technician/nurse on the front lines. According to the first person accounts, people cough up pink frothy liquid and they have to run the ventilators at a high pressure typically used for drowning victims all because blood is leaking into the patient's lungs due to the virus' affect on the lungs. All of this is happening while the patient is in a fever delirium, and is probably strapped down so they can't fight.
  #173  
Old 03-27-2020, 10:40 PM
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If there were enough doctors and equipment, would it be so overhyped? About 2000 deaths in America out of how much population? Billions?
You think America has billions of people?
  #174  
Old 03-27-2020, 10:47 PM
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I feel like I live in the dumbest country on Earth. All we have to do to prevent a global pandemic from killing tens of thousands of people or more is to wash our hands, work from home and stay away from other people as much as possible. And people can't even do that. No, it's too important to get drunk on spring break or at a bar full of a-holes.





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In the early years of the AIDS epidemic, we had no idea that a virus was responsible, or how the disease was spread. We didn't know how to "stay out of its way", and many places, like gay establishments, were shut down because of this ignorance. There were even suggestions to isolate all gay men on an island somewhere. Or worse.
What, like Fire Island?
  #175  
Old 03-30-2020, 06:07 AM
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I feel like I live in the dumbest country on Earth. All we have to do to prevent a global pandemic from killing tens of thousands of people or more is to wash our hands, work from home and stay away from other people as much as possible. And people can't even do that. No, it's too important to get drunk on spring break or at a bar full of a-holes.
What I find weirder is how many have skipped several stages of denial.

It's most jarring of course with...let's just say "a" wing of the media, which in a matter of days went from calling this a storm in a teacup, or even a hoax, to saying we need to sacrifice our elderly to appease Lord Covid.

We can fight this; there are countries doing very well to limit the spread right now (including geographically large countries, or whatever other excuse for the US being "exceptional"). It just takes cooperation and a focused government providing doctors and citizens the resources they need.

Last edited by Mijin; 03-30-2020 at 06:10 AM.
  #176  
Old 03-30-2020, 06:36 AM
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I think a lot of the stupid people are ill-informed. Some willfully. But some people are living in bubbles. They aren't news junkies like the rest of us are.

My mother is someone who watches a lot of MSNBC and CNN, so I would not consider her to be totally uninformed. But yesterday she told me she was surprised by how many people in her ministry (she's an associate minister at her church) have expressed fear over the coronavirus. I was like, "Um...why wouldn't they be scared!?" and I felt myself getting mad because I thought she was about to say something bad about people who fail to be Christian sages on a mountaintop all the time like she is. But then it dawned on me that her parishioners, being a lot younger than she is, are exactly like me. They--we--are on social media platforms like Reddit and the SDMB. They are looking at the stats every day, maybe even more frequently than that, and reading articles about Italy and other places. My mother ain't doing any of these things. Like, when I told her about all the people who have died in Iran, she was shocked. Because her news sources haven't really covered Iran all that much.

I have to give her and my father props for taking this seriously. And I don't think there's something wrong with my mother for not feeling afraid; she can't help how she doesn't feel. But I think she's like a lot of people. She knows this thing is bad in a theoretical sense because her favorite talking heads are telling her it is. But she doesn't really know how bad it can be because she's not into the information that hard. I have no doubt that if her kids weren't regularly pleading with her to stay home, her ass would be going to the mall like everything is normal.
  #177  
Old 03-30-2020, 07:42 AM
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In fairness, this has been a surprising event in both speed and scope.
It's not a new thing for the news to be warning us of some impending threat that's coming to your neighborhood any day now...it's another thing for it to actually happen.
  #178  
Old 03-30-2020, 07:58 AM
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We can fight this; there are countries doing very well to limit the spread right now (including geographically large countries, or whatever other excuse for the US being "exceptional"). It just takes cooperation and a focused government providing doctors and citizens the resources they need.
We are coming up on two weeks since developed countries in North America and Europe began implementing serious social distancing policies, and although it remains early days yet, there are clear trends showing that infection rates are stabilizing and, in several countries, showing modest declines. Social distancing, as imperfect as it may be, appears to be having a positive effect.
  #179  
Old 03-30-2020, 02:31 PM
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I agree. Ex parte Milligan: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ex_parte_Milligan

Martial law may not be declared where civilian courts are open and may only be used in areas of military operations "where war really prevails."

If we want to say that this is "war" then get ready for martial law when we have a "war" on drugs, poverty, crime, etc.

Maybe not where you are, but here civilian courts are closed and will be for some time.


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In fairness, this has been a surprising event in both speed and scope.
It's not a new thing for the news to be warning us of some impending threat that's coming to your neighborhood any day now...it's another thing for it to actually happen.

Not all that surprising. We started getting indications in December, followed by a freaking huge clue when China locked down an entire province. We have been talking about this for months and very little was done. Further, the CDC used to maintain an entire team to prep for this kind of thing, there are actually protocols that were not followed, the world has had several epidemics in the last few decades (not including AIDS, which is also a massive illustration of how to screw the pooch).


(Sorry Mijin - I'm not upset at you, per se, I'm upset with all the people who still think this is a hoax, or only for the olds, or won't effect them because no one they know is sick. Just ugh.)
  #180  
Old 03-30-2020, 03:31 PM
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I just don't understand this: China has reportedly no new cases of the virus in Wuhan, the epicenter of this pandemic. For the 6th day in a row. Meanwhile the virus rages on in the US, and we hear estimates of up to 200,000 deaths possible by end of the year. If China was able to control the pandemic to ~3500 deaths we should be able to, also. Unless the Chinese government is tampering with data on truly colossal scale and their death toll is an order of magnitude higher than they are admitting.
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  #181  
Old 03-30-2020, 03:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mandala View Post
I just don't understand this: China has reportedly no new cases of the virus in Wuhan, the epicenter of this pandemic. For the 6th day in a row. Meanwhile the virus rages on in the US, and we hear estimates of up to 200,000 deaths possible by end of the year. If China was able to control the pandemic to ~3500 deaths we should be able to, also. Unless the Chinese government is tampering with data on truly colossal scale and their death toll is an order of magnitude higher than they are admitting.
China is lying through their teeth.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/chi...020182846.html

Quote:
A city source added that, based on the aggregation of funeral and cremation numbers, authorities likely know the real number and are keeping it under wraps.

“Every funeral home reports data on cremations directly to the authorities twice daily,” the source said. “This means that each funeral home only knows how many cremations it has conducted, but not the situation at the other funeral homes.”

The city began lifting its lockdown on Saturday after two months of mandatory shutdown, with a complete lift of restrictions set for April 8. Funeral homes in Wuhan have been handing out the cremated remains to families every day, but rumors began circulating after one funeral home received two shipments of 5,000 urns over the course of two days, according to photos reported by Chinese media outlet Caixin, which were later censored.
  #182  
Old Yesterday, 06:40 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by madsircool View Post
China is lying through their teeth.

https://www.rfa.org/english/news/chi...020182846.html
I think this is correct.

I do think they're having *some* success against COVID - you can't bullshit a major medical crisis in which thousands of patients are piling up on the floor. So they're at least not in that phase of the outbreak anymore, but they're bullshitting the numbers, and they have been. There's no way only 3,000 patients died - it was probably 10 times that number. And yes, they're probably having smaller outbreaks in other cities they're not reporting, and there are undoubtedly resurgent cases in Wuhan.

Fuck the CCP and their lies. China needs to be held to account for allowing dangerous wet markets that led to this outbreak in the first place, despite years of warnings that this would be the result. And they need to pay twice for covering up the outbreak and deliberately withholding the severity and nature of the crisis. We can start by having the US and our allied governments forcing companies to pull their supply chain until they change.

ETA: Mods, I don't mean for the last part to be a political rant per se; it's intended to be a response (a spirited one) to madsircool's comment about the Chinese government's response. If it crosses lines, it's not intentional

Last edited by asahi; Yesterday at 06:42 AM.
  #183  
Old Yesterday, 06:52 AM
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Originally Posted by Aspidistra View Post
Oh, and I never modelled-in '20% of your ICU staff had to go into isolation because they caught the disease off their patients, and now you only have 160 beds'
You also omitted "a bunch of people came in each day with injuries and heart attacks and whatnot and they died because there were no beds for them".
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Last edited by Steve MB; Yesterday at 06:53 AM.
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