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Old 01-08-2019, 08:21 PM
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Trump speech live 01/08/2019: follow-along thread.

Trump will give a speech tonight from the Oval Office, the first of his presidency. He's expected to make his case for his border wall. Considering he's been talking about little else for several months, I'm curious what, if anything, he'll have to say that hasn't been said / tweeted a zillion times already.

This thread is for following the speech, fact-checking, pointing & laughing, and general discussion. T-minus 40 minutes to showtime.
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Old 01-08-2019, 08:23 PM
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Here's a link to a live stream of the speech courtesy of the Washington Post.
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Old 01-08-2019, 08:34 PM
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For those that want to get an early start on their "fact checking", or are just interested in some background information, President Trump sent this to Congress a few days ago.
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Old 01-08-2019, 08:55 PM
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For those that want to get an early start on their "fact checking", or are just interested in some background information, President Trump sent this to Congress a few days ago.
Quote:
The most pressing legal changes are as follows:

Terminate the Flores Settlement Agreement—which is preventing families from being held together through removal; and
Amend the Trafficking Victims Protection Reauthorization Act (TVPRA), to allow for the safe and humane return of illegally-smuggled minors back to their families in their home countries.
Trump Poppycock as the goal is to justify the detention of families for an undefined amount of time.

https://www.vox.com/2018/6/20/174845...nt-immigration
Quote:
Getting rid of Flores means indefinite family detention

It’s not at all clear that Trump can, legally, issue an executive order that would override the Flores settlement. That’s why analysts are assuming that any order Trump issues to keep families together in DHS custody will be challenged by a lawsuit and may get thwarted.

If DHS somehow manages to craft an executive order that evades that issue, or if Congress passes any of the suite of Republican bills that purport to end family separation by expanding family detention, it will mean one of two things.

Either the Trump administration will start keeping families in detention for as long as it takes to fully adjudicate their asylum cases — which can take months or years — or it will need to ram them through an “expedited” legal process to minimize their time in detention.

President Obama tried the latter in 2014. It went horrifically. Pro bono lawyers who went to family detention facilities (which were flung together in a matter of weeks) reported that it was all but impossible for families to get due process for their asylum claims.

The former is what families are still going through at the Pennsylvania facility. The long-term detention of immigrant children raises some of the same concerns that keeping them in custody without their parents does, in terms of long-term trauma. Bright lights in the Burks facility reportedly keep children from sleeping well, for example — and they can be disciplined if they try to climb into a parent’s bed for comfort.

Furthermore, getting rid of the Flores settlement entirely wouldn’t just get rid of the mandate to release children; it would also get rid of the requirements for what conditions children must be held in. In other words, the legal standards that undergird the Office of Refugee Resettlement facilities — standards that Trump administration officials brag are among the highest in the world — would be wiped away.

Depending on what replaced Flores, it’s possible that ICE could simply use existing adult detention facilities to herd children into as well.

The Trump administration could hold itself to higher standards. But for that matter, it could also find an alternative to detaining immigrant families that still allowed the government to ensure they showed up in court. It does not appear inclined to do so.

Last edited by GIGObuster; 01-08-2019 at 08:56 PM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:03 PM
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I won't watch, I'll just wait till he's done and the adult rebuttal begins.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:03 PM
HurricaneDitka HurricaneDitka is online now
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And we're off
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:03 PM
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"Illegal migration".

That's new.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:04 PM
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He's a good reader.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:04 PM
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In FY2017 and FY2018, ICE officers arrested approximately 235,000 aliens on various criminal charges or convictions within the interior of the United States—including roughly 100,000 for assault, 30,000 for sex crimes, and 4,000 for homicides.
What do you guys think? Fact or not a fact?
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:07 PM
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What do you guys think? Fact or not a fact?
You seriously think it's even worth a fact check?
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:11 PM
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Wow, immigrants sure sound like bloodthirsty lunatics!
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:13 PM
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The NY Times is fact checking while the speech is going on:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/u...mp-speech.html
Quote:
Here’s what the president said, and how it stacks up against the facts.

“Every week 300 of our citizens are killed by heroin alone, 90 percent of which flows across our southern border.”

This needs context.

Most heroin smuggled into the United States does come through the southwest border, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration’s latest National Drug Assessment report.

But most fentanyl enters the United States from packages mailed directly from China through traditional ports of entry, according to the report, and through Canada from China. A lower potency, lower-cost grade of fentanyl is also smuggled across the southwest border from Mexico. The fentanyl directly from China is far more lucrative for sellers because of its higher purity. The fentanyl sent through conventional mail packages are proven difficult for law enforcement to detect. Fentanyl coming from Mexico is often hidden in automobile compartments, much like conventional drug smuggling.

The president’s opioids commission reported last November noted, “We are losing this fight predominately through China.”
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Old 01-09-2019, 02:34 AM
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The NY Times is fact checking while the speech is going on:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/u...mp-speech.html
Quote:
Here’s what the president said, and how it stacks up against the facts.

“Every week 300 of our citizens are killed by heroin alone, 90 percent of which flows across our southern border.”

This needs context.

Most heroin smuggled into the United States does come through the southwest border, according to the Drug Enforcement Administration’s latest National Drug Assessment report.

But most fentanyl enters the United States from packages mailed directly from China through traditional ports of entry, according to the report, and through Canada from China. A lower potency, lower-cost grade of fentanyl is also smuggled across the southwest border from Mexico. The fentanyl directly from China is far more lucrative for sellers because of its higher purity. The fentanyl sent through conventional mail packages are proven difficult for law enforcement to detect. Fentanyl coming from Mexico is often hidden in automobile compartments, much like conventional drug smuggling.

The president’s opioids commission reported last November noted, “We are losing this fight predominately through China.”
Fentanyl is a synthetic opioid. Why do we have to import it from China and Mexico? What's happened to this country?
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:10 PM
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What do you guys think? Fact or not a fact?
What are the comparable stats for American citizens in the same time period?
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Old 01-08-2019, 11:20 PM
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What are the comparable stats for American citizens in the same time period?
Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero. Those numbers represent American victims of crime that would otherwise be safe from crime if the borders were secure.
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Old 01-08-2019, 11:30 PM
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Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero. Those numbers represent American victims of crime that would otherwise be safe from crime if the borders were secure.
Then I'm sure you would support mandatory jail time for those who supply the jobs they're coming for, right?
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Old 01-09-2019, 09:28 AM
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Then I'm sure you would support mandatory jail time for those who supply the jobs they're coming for, right?
Back in 2008 the Republican legislature passed a law requiring e-verify be used to deter employers from hiring undocumented aliens. It seemed to be working. With the shutdown, e-verify is not working at the moment which means nobody can be legally hired in this state, maybe for years, if Donny Two-scoops is to be believed.

Oopsie.
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Old 01-08-2019, 11:33 PM
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Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero. Those numbers represent American victims of crime that would otherwise be safe from crime if the borders were secure.
No, they wouldn't be safe from crime. Most criminals aren't illegal immigrants, so the Americans you're clutching pearls over would have pretty much the same chance of encountering a criminal.

Weird you're not worried about smallpox and leprosy. Trump said foreigners carry those diseases after all, and would he lie?
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Old 01-09-2019, 01:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by running coach View Post
What are the comparable stats for American citizens in the same time period?
Why does it matter?
Wow.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 01-09-2019 at 01:00 AM.
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Old 01-09-2019, 08:25 AM
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Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero. Those numbers represent American victims of crime that would otherwise be safe from crime if the borders were secure.
Wait, if illegal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than Americans, wouldn't (or at least couldn't) that lower the number of crimes committed against Americans? Some of the illegal immigrants will commit crimes against Americans, but some of the Americans will also commit crimes against the illegal immigrants instead of the other Americans.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 01-09-2019 at 08:28 AM.
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Old 01-09-2019, 10:47 AM
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Wait, if illegal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than Americans, wouldn't (or at least couldn't) that lower the number of crimes committed against Americans? Some of the illegal immigrants will commit crimes against Americans, but some of the Americans will also commit crimes against the illegal immigrants instead of the other Americans.

Lord Feldon,

The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime.

Don't you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do.
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Old 01-09-2019, 09:51 AM
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Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero.
The many many Americans who hire them seem to disagree.
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Old 01-09-2019, 02:20 PM
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Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero. Those numbers represent American victims of crime that would otherwise be safe from crime if the borders were secure.
That's not how math works. All things being equal, you're forgetting that all of those non-violent immigrants that are also coming in are potential victims of crimes themselves (adding to the pool), thus "shielding" American victims from crimes.

Say a hypothetical country has 8 citizens, and statistically, 1/4 of them (i.e, two criminals) are going to commit a violent crime at some point in their lives (assume for the hypothetical they assault someone at random other than themselves). Your individual chances of becoming a victim of one of those two crimes are 26.5%.

Now say that hypothetical county allows 5 immigrants in, 1/5 of them are violent criminals (one more criminal). Your chances of becoming a victim of one of those three (total) crimes is now 23.0.%
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Old 01-09-2019, 03:24 PM
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That's not how math works. All things being equal, you're forgetting that all of those non-violent immigrants that are also coming in are potential victims of crimes themselves (adding to the pool), thus "shielding" American victims from crimes.

Say a hypothetical country has 8 citizens, and statistically, 1/4 of them (i.e, two criminals) are going to commit a violent crime at some point in their lives (assume for the hypothetical they assault someone at random other than themselves). Your individual chances of becoming a victim of one of those two crimes are 26.5%.

Now say that hypothetical county allows 5 immigrants in, 1/5 of them are violent criminals (one more criminal). Your chances of becoming a victim of one of those three (total) crimes is now 23.0.%
We can go even further than that. Law abiding groups create low crime areas. By, for example, calling the police when they see potential problems, speaking out against potentially criminal behavior, forming neighborhood watch programs, etc. People who don't tolerate crime actually lower crime rates around them, not just through their own lack of crimes, but on the impact they have on potential criminals in the neighborhood.

Crime rates for immigrants are so low that they actually reduce rates of crime in cities they move to. Basically, immigrants reduced the total rate of crimes committed against Americans!

That's right, crime rates would actually go up if we deported more immigrants.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:10 PM
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What do you guys think? Fact or not a fact?
As is also usual for Trump, it is half a fact with the intent to mislead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.d2dd727f6530
Quote:
Another study, published in March in the journal Criminology, looked at population-level crime rates: Do places with higher percentages of undocumented immigrants have higher rates of crime? The answer, as the chart above shows, is a resounding no.

States with larger shares of undocumented immigrants tended to have lower crime rates than states with smaller shares in the years 1990 through 2014. "Increases in the undocumented immigrant population within states are associated with significant decreases in the prevalence of violence," authors Michael T. Light and Ty Miller found.

That's just a simple correlation, of course, and it's well documented that many factors beyond immigration can affect the crime rate. So Light and Miller ran a number of statistical analyses to more clearly isolate the effects of illegal immigration from those other factors. Among other things, they find that the relationship between high levels of illegal immigration and low levels of crime persists even after controlling for various economic and demographic factors such as age, urbanization, labor market conditions and incarceration rates.

All told, Light and Miller sliced the data 57 ways to see whether there was anything they missed, but not one of their analyses showed any positive relationship between illegal immigration and crime. They concluded that not only does illegal immigration not increase crime, but it may actually contribute to the drop in overall crime rates observed in the United States in recent decades.
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Old 01-09-2019, 08:02 AM
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As is also usual for Trump, it is half a fact with the intent to mislead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.d2dd727f6530
I read the link and could not find the half fact. ICE was not mentioned,
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:10 PM
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MS-13. There's a shot.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:12 PM
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What a maroon.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:12 PM
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At least he didn't declare a National Thing or whatever it's called. There's that.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:14 PM
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At least he didn't declare a National Thing or whatever it's called. There's that.
Yeah. This whole thing was nothing more than a slightly more coherent version of his recent tweets.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:20 PM
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At least he didn't declare a National Thing or whatever it's called. There's that.
That comes on Friday.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:14 PM
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Has he forgotten that we have him on tape saying "I'll own the shutdown?"

Last edited by silenus; 01-08-2019 at 09:14 PM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:14 PM
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Well, crap. I was expecting him to show a giant check from Mexico to pay for the wall.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:16 PM
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Another check from the NY Times:

Quote:
“The wall will also be paid for, indirectly by the great new trade deal we have made with Mexico.”

False.

First, the revised North American Free Trade Agreement, known as the United States-Canada-Mexico-Agreement, has yet to pass in Congress. Any economic benefits from the agreement, if it passes, will likely come in the form of lower tariffs for American companies or higher wages for American workers.

This is different than Mr. Trump’s campaign promise that Mexico would finance the wall.

—Alan Rappeport

Last edited by GIGObuster; 01-08-2019 at 09:16 PM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:16 PM
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Well, crap. I was expecting him to show a giant check from Mexico to pay for the wall.
I imagine Trump was dreaming last night of Obrador coming on-screen with a jumbo check straight out of Publisher's Clearing House.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:19 PM
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Well, crap. I was expecting him to show a giant check from Mexico to pay for the wall.
In pesos.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:21 PM
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Well, crap. I was expecting him to show a giant check from Mexico to pay for the wall.
Did you see the rebuttal? Pelosi and Schumer both taunted him about Mexico (not) paying.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:45 PM
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What's up with this bizarre claim he pulled out of his ass (maybe the smell is why he's sniffing so much) that the Democrats asked him to change the design from concrete to steel?
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:48 PM
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What's up with this bizarre claim he pulled out of his ass (maybe the smell is why he's sniffing so much) that the Democrats asked him to change the design from concrete to steel?
IKR, where in hell did that come from? Maybe previous presidents told him that, too.

Last edited by Beckdawrek; 01-08-2019 at 09:48 PM.
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:54 PM
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I just got a news alert from the New York Times that said "President Trump's address on border security was at times misleading".

I suppose they used the "at times" qualifier because it was only misleading during those times his mouth was actually open?
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Old 01-08-2019, 09:56 PM
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IKR, where in hell did that come ftom? Maybe previous presidents told him that, too.
The previous presidents hanging on the walls, maybe.


Anyhoo, a few highlights from the Washington Post fact check:

Quote:
"The wall will also be paid for indirectly by the great new trade deal we have made with Mexico."

This is a Four-Pinocchio claim.
(Actually, it's two claims at that mendacity level: the four-Pinocchio (which I think now qualifies as a Bottomless Pinocchio now that the Post found it necessary to expand the scale for Trump) that Mexico was paying for the wall and the (dunno if formally rated) claim that NAFTA Version 1.001a is a "new trade deal" in any meaningful sense.)

Quote:
"Every week, 300 of our citizens are killed by heroin alone, 90% of which floods across from our southern border."

But while 90 percent of the heroin sold in the United States comes from Mexico, virtually all of it comes through legal points of entry.... Trump’s repeated claim that the wall would stop drug trafficking is another Bottomless Pinocchio claim.
Quote:
There is no new crisis at the border

Apprehensions of people trying to cross the southern border peaked most recently at 1.6 million in 2000 and have been in decline since, partly because of technology upgrades, tougher penalties post-9/11, a decline in migration rates from Mexico and a sharp rise in the number of Border Patrol officers....
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Last edited by Steve MB; 01-08-2019 at 09:57 PM.
  #42  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:13 PM
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What's up with this bizarre claim he pulled out of his ass (maybe the smell is why he's sniffing so much) that the Democrats asked him to change the design from concrete to steel?
a few weeks ago Trump removed sanctions on a steel producer owned mostly by a Russian oligarch. Around that time he decided that the wall would be made of steel slats rather than concrete. One of those 400 coincidences where his policy changes are in line with Russian interests purely by chance I'm sure.

Pictured here

I like that they highlighted and zoomed in on the spikes, just to make sure everyone knew it was hurty enough.

I like to imagine drug smugglers coming to the border and slipping packages of heroin through the slats to their compatriots on the other side.

Last edited by SenorBeef; 01-08-2019 at 11:14 PM.
  #43  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:19 PM
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a few weeks ago Trump removed sanctions on a steel producer owned mostly by a Russian oligarch. Around that time he decided that the wall would be made of steel slats rather than concrete. One of those 400 coincidences where his policy changes are in line with Russian interests purely by chance I'm sure.

Pictured here

I like that they highlighted and zoomed in on the spikes, just to make sure everyone knew it was hurty enough.

I like to imagine drug smugglers coming to the border and slipping packages of heroin through the slats to their compatriots on the other side.
Each slat will be on a pivot and will have a sensor and a motor. Anyone approaches too close, the slats will swing shut like a Venetian blind.

  #44  
Old 01-08-2019, 09:20 PM
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Mercifully short, thank God.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:02 PM
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I’m fucking livid about this “imagine if it were your child” shit (in regards to people being killed by illegal immigrants). Fucking livid. “Congress must act”. What about the hundreds of American children who are killed by Americans with guns? Who was calling for Congress to act on that?

Also the whole “drugs coming over the border are killing Americans.” So the answer is a wall. But guns in America killing Americans? “Criminals will get guns anyway.”

Fuck all of this. Suck fucking twisted “morality.”
  #46  
Old 01-08-2019, 10:14 PM
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Fact-checking even on Fox News....
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:20 PM
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My god. Finally, even on Fox "News," someone said the emperor has no clothes.
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Old 01-08-2019, 10:21 PM
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My god. Finally, even on Fox "News," someone said the emperor has no clothes.
Not only that, he's hung like a hamster.
  #49  
Old 01-08-2019, 10:23 PM
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Aspenglow Aspenglow is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
Not only that, he's hung like a hamster.
That's the tiniest toadstool I've ever seen!!
  #50  
Old 01-08-2019, 11:18 PM
DrDeth DrDeth is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
Not only that, he's hung like a hamster.
Hamsters have HUGE testicles in comparison to their body size. Fact check!
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