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  #101  
Old 01-09-2019, 07:56 AM
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Originally Posted by SenorBeef View Post
Pictured here

I like that they highlighted and zoomed in on the spikes, just to make sure everyone knew it was hurty enough.

I like to imagine drug smugglers coming to the border and slipping packages of heroin through the slats to their compatriots on the other side.
I've seen that design. Seems like it wouldn't be too difficult to insert a jack of some kind between the slats and force them apart. They're only anchored into the ground, so the higher up you go the more leverage you've got. It wouldn't be trivial to do, but with the right equipment and a little time...

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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero. Those numbers represent American victims of crime that would otherwise be safe from crime if the borders were secure.
What about the illegal migrants who come here and are mugged, raped, or killed by American citizens? If the migrant hadn't been here, that crime would have happened to an American. They're taking one for the team.
  #102  
Old 01-09-2019, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted by GIGObuster View Post
As is also usual for Trump, it is half a fact with the intent to mislead.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...=.d2dd727f6530
I read the link and could not find the half fact. ICE was not mentioned,
  #103  
Old 01-09-2019, 08:23 AM
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I think it's the oft-repeated trope that illegal immigrants commit more crimes than Americans, which has been debunked several times, yet Trump and company continue to trot it out as an actual fact.
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  #104  
Old 01-09-2019, 08:25 AM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero. Those numbers represent American victims of crime that would otherwise be safe from crime if the borders were secure.
Wait, if illegal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than Americans, wouldn't (or at least couldn't) that lower the number of crimes committed against Americans? Some of the illegal immigrants will commit crimes against Americans, but some of the Americans will also commit crimes against the illegal immigrants instead of the other Americans.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 01-09-2019 at 08:28 AM.
  #105  
Old 01-09-2019, 08:59 AM
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Originally Posted by HurricaneDitka View Post
I don't think he's appreciably off the average for 2018, but you go ahead and believe whatever you like.
I have to agree with HD about this. We've seen fluctuations like this before. Wake me up when his average approval on 538 drops below 40, or his average disapproval climbs above 55.

Last edited by RTFirefly; 01-09-2019 at 09:00 AM.
  #106  
Old 01-09-2019, 09:01 AM
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Originally Posted by kenobi 65 View Post
As much as I dislike Trump, and as much as I frequently disagree with HD, he's spot on here. Yes, Trump's aggregated approval rating on 538 has been trending down in recent weeks, but that change is still very small. As HD noted, Trump's approval rating throughout 2018 wobbled around in a pretty narrow range of 40-44%.

I study these kinds of numbers (in a marketing context) for a living. Right now, if I were analyzing those numbers for a client, my observation would be "the trend doesn't look great, but it's not dropped low enough, or declined for long enough, for me to feel confident that it's evidence of a real change in the market."

In other words: if it continues the downward trend of the past few weeks, and drops below 40%, and *stays* below that range where he's been for the past year, *then* I might start to suspect that there's an erosion in his support. Right now, it's too hard to tell if it's something bigger than the usual small-scale up and down from the daily news cycle, and / or statistical variance.
HD started a thread a few months back when Trump's approval hit 42.8% on 538, as if it were some big improvement. Now that it's bouncing back down, it's just statistical noise, according to him. Seems a little inconsistent.
  #107  
Old 01-09-2019, 09:13 AM
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If it was such a crisis, why did he wait until Democrats took the House before he started making it out to be the biggest of all fucking deals? He had Paul Ryan, who would dutifully do his bidding and Mitch McConnell, who would burn the Constitution if he can keep confirming right wing judges. Now that he can be stopped, he brings it up. Dumb ass.
  #108  
Old 01-09-2019, 09:28 AM
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Then I'm sure you would support mandatory jail time for those who supply the jobs they're coming for, right?
Back in 2008 the Republican legislature passed a law requiring e-verify be used to deter employers from hiring undocumented aliens. It seemed to be working. With the shutdown, e-verify is not working at the moment which means nobody can be legally hired in this state, maybe for years, if Donny Two-scoops is to be believed.

Oopsie.
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  #109  
Old 01-09-2019, 09:51 AM
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Originally Posted by UltraVires View Post
Why does it matter? These people are not supposed to be here. Those numbers should be zero.
The many many Americans who hire them seem to disagree.
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  #110  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:13 AM
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Of the three+ years of the Trump candidacy/presidency, truly nothing deserved the "nothingburger" label more than that speech last night. A low-energy, unpersuasive whine from a man with zero credibility to speak on the issue other than the job he currently holds, if I were told this speech would convince me to keep working for free, effectively a GOP slave - I would call in sick today with Monster open on my phone and Indeed on my desktop.
  #111  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:20 AM
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As we have seen on even this board, those who are furthest away from the border support it the most. In other words, the further away you are from the border, the more likely one is to allow themselves to be lied about what is happening at the border. To quote:

Quote:
So, where is support for the wall coming from? As it turns out, Trump's strongest support comes from states with the smallest immigrant presence and — in some cases — the states furthest from the border. Per CNN, in the 2016 election, President Trump won 26 of the 30 states where foreign-born immigrants represented the smallest percentage of the population. South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Wyoming, West Virginia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Kentucky are all states with fewer than one immigrant for every 20 residents. They also happen to be where Trump's most ardent support comes from.
  #112  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:30 AM
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Originally Posted by RTFirefly View Post
I have to agree with HD about this. We've seen fluctuations like this before. Wake me up when his average approval on 538 drops below 40, or his average disapproval climbs above 55.
40? He was under 40 from May '17 to late January '18. Wake me when he breaks into new ground by more than a hair and that means 35 or less.

When we see him at 32 or less that means his rocky core is beginning to flake off too, and that's when any proven high crimes become actionable by the Senate.

Meanwhile this is noise.
  #113  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Lord Feldon View Post
Wait, if illegal immigrants commit crimes at a lower rate than Americans, wouldn't (or at least couldn't) that lower the number of crimes committed against Americans? Some of the illegal immigrants will commit crimes against Americans, but some of the Americans will also commit crimes against the illegal immigrants instead of the other Americans.

Lord Feldon,

The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime.

Don't you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do.
  #114  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:50 AM
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No.
  #115  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:51 AM
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Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite View Post
Lord Feldon,

The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime.

Don't you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do.
No, it won't. Tell us what exactly is being planned first-No blank checks.
  #116  
Old 01-09-2019, 10:56 AM
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40? He was under 40 from May '17 to late January '18. Wake me when he breaks into new ground by more than a hair and that means 35 or less.
Whatever. Fact is, after all the swings of his first year in office, his approval ratings have been pretty steady since last February. Sure, I'll wait until later to wake you up, but it still will mean something when his approval breaks out of the range it's been in for the past 11 months.
  #117  
Old 01-09-2019, 11:05 AM
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Yes. But a wall isn't the answer. Most people familiar with the subject seem to agree that there better ways of spending the money. Our money, not Mexico's. And that's what this is all about. Trump's damned wall.
  #118  
Old 01-09-2019, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite View Post
Lord Feldon,

The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime.

Don't you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do.
May I direct you to the post I made on the last page? This is the oldest trick in the racist demagogue's book. There is literally no group you cannot apply it to, and indeed, nearly no marginalized group it hasn't been applied to. Declare a group "not us", complain about literally any kind of "not us" victimizing "us", and use that to demand violant action against "not us", regardless of how warranted that action may otherwise be. And who is "not us"? Could be illegal immigrants. Could be refugees. Could be a portion of the populace you don't want to see as quite "American" - usually new migrants, far too commonly Jews. Could be blacks, gays, democrats...

Stop falling for it. Stop enabling it.
  #119  
Old 01-09-2019, 11:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite View Post
Lord Feldon,

The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime.

Don't you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do.
Sure. But reducing immigration wont do that. Reducing CRIME will do that.
  #120  
Old 01-09-2019, 12:13 PM
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It turns out that his speech was fairly successful when it comes to what it really was-a campaign speech for his reelection campaign. Before the speech emails went out on to all his supporter on the mailing list insisting that he needed their monetary support immediately for The Wall, and immediately after the speech another mailing went out to those who didn't contribute saying that The President was willing to extend the deadline a few hours "for you"(actually, everyone that didn't give for the cause)...but the funny part about this is that the money didn't go to The Wall-it went to his reelection campaign. [

That's right. He conned the networks into running a campaign speech live.
Even if he didn't solicit during the speech itself, this seems like it should be a violation of campaign finance law. Lawyers? If it wasn't illegal the law is an ass.
  #121  
Old 01-09-2019, 12:15 PM
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IANAL, but I'm pretty sure it's not illegal to send out an email requesting campaign donations.
  #122  
Old 01-09-2019, 12:21 PM
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IANAL, but I'm pretty sure it's not illegal to send out an email requesting campaign donations.
Is that how you interpret what he did-just mailing out campaign donation requests?
  #123  
Old 01-09-2019, 12:28 PM
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Yeah, there didn't appear to be any lines in his speech soliciting donations. Do you think it was a violation of some canpaign finance statute?
  #124  
Old 01-09-2019, 12:30 PM
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Whatever. Fact is, after all the swings of his first year in office, his approval ratings have been pretty steady since last February. Sure, I'll wait until later to wake you up, but it still will mean something when his approval breaks out of the range it's been in for the past 11 months.
Okay. I'm always willing to be educated. What will it mean? To my read even the spread from March '16 on is historically very narrow. Break out of that range to mean something.
  #125  
Old 01-09-2019, 12:45 PM
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Yeah, there didn't appear to be any lines in his speech soliciting donations. Do you think it was a violation of some canpaign finance statute?
Of course it's not illegal to send emails asking for donations. The DCCC did the same thing in response to the initial email last night.

But using a prime-time 'policy' speech as a siren call to solicit donations strikes me as underhanded and unethical. But that's been the SOP for the GOP for quite some time.
  #126  
Old 01-09-2019, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite View Post
Lord Feldon,

The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime.

Don't you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do.
Did you know that there are thousands of murders, some of them of children, committed in the United states every year by people who were pulled over for speeding at some point in their lives. If we had mandatory life sentences for speeding, those lives could have been saved.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 01-09-2019 at 12:55 PM.
  #127  
Old 01-09-2019, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Ancient Erudite View Post
Lord Feldon,

The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are non-Americans victimizing American Citizens with various types of crime.

Don't you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do.
The issue is not the crime rate, which is debatable. What we have here are Americans victimizing fellow American Citizens with gun violence.

Don't you think the President and Congress should do more to protect the American Citizens? A simple yes or no will do.
  #128  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:06 PM
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Okay. I'm always willing to be educated. What will it mean?
That he's become less popular than he has been over the past year.
  #129  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:26 PM
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Of course it's not illegal to send emails asking for donations. The DCCC did the same thing in response to the initial email last night.

But using a prime-time 'policy' speech as a siren call to solicit donations strikes me as underhanded and unethical. But that's been the SOP for the GOP for quite some time.
If I dug up some fundraising emails from Dems that were sent out in proximity to some 'policy' speeches, would you concede that they are underhanded and unethical?
  #130  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:29 PM
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If the Dems used the spectre of a "declared national emergency" to wring free prime-time access to the three major networks so they could coordinate a marketing message, sure, please, by all means, dig that up.
  #131  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:29 PM
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If I dug up some fundraising emails from Dems that were sent out in proximity to some 'policy' speeches, would you concede that they are underhanded and unethical?
whataboutism and a hijack, eh?

Can we get back to the speech?
  #132  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:29 PM
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If I dug up some fundraising emails from Dems that were sent out in proximity to some 'policy' speeches, would you concede that they are underhanded and unethical?
Certainly, if the people giving the speeches admitted ahead of time that they were meaningless, but the campaigns of those giving the speeches had aggressive fundraising campaigns centered around the speeches.
  #133  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:33 PM
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Try here:

Barack Obama gets on national TV to announce the death of Osama Bin Laden.

Please try to find:

1. Campaign marketing emails sent prior* to the announcement, raising money on the news that OBL was dead.
2. Campaign marketing emails sent immediately after* the announcement, raising money on the news that OBL was dead. I think Trump's follow-up email was within 10 minutes of the speech ending. I'll be generous and give you three hours after Obama's speech. Find me an Obama 2012 campaign email asking for money because of OBL's death that was sent by, say, 1:30am, Monday, May 2nd, 2011.


*We need to keep the "proximity" roughly the same as Individual-1's actions, so the comparison is fair. Right?

Last edited by JohnT; 01-09-2019 at 01:35 PM.
  #134  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:39 PM
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whataboutism and a hijack, eh?

Can we get back to the speech?
You're kidding, right? Remember the "hung like a hamster" commentary? You should, you participated:

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Originally Posted by DrDeth View Post
Hamsters have HUGE testicles in comparison to their body size. Fact check!
Now suddenly you just want to focus on the speech? Hypocrisy much?
  #135  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:41 PM
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Try here:

Barack Obama gets on national TV to announce the death of Osama Bin Laden.

Please try to find:

1. Campaign marketing emails sent prior* to the announcement, raising money on the news that OBL was dead.
2. Campaign marketing emails sent immediately after* the announcement, raising money on the news that OBL was dead. I think Trump's follow-up email was within 10 minutes of the speech ending. I'll be generous and give you three hours after Obama's speech. Find me an Obama 2012 campaign email asking for money because of OBL's death that was sent by, say, 1:30am, Monday, May 2nd, 2011.


*We need to keep the "proximity" roughly the same as Individual-1's actions, so the comparison is fair. Right?
A finer example of moving the goalposts would be difficult to imagine.
  #136  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:42 PM
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So you're still digging then?
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  #137  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:43 PM
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Raising money off of OBL's death is a no-brainer, it seems to me. Are you, HD, telling me you don't even have the ability to try to research my question/your statement? Just gonna assume it's true because you want it to be?

Last edited by JohnT; 01-09-2019 at 01:46 PM.
  #138  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:46 PM
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If I dug up some fundraising emails from Dems that were sent out in proximity to some 'policy' speeches, would you concede that they are underhanded and unethical?
Yes. Of course you are referring to Presidential speeches, correct?

Considering that massive email blitzes weren't a thing yet during the Clinton presidency, you will only have to dig up fundraising emails sent right before or right after one of Obama's Oval Office policy speeches. It shouldn't take you very long. Here's a list. And since Obama wasn't in need of campaign re-election funds after November of 2012, the list that you have to search will be even shorter. There are 10 of them.

I'll wait.

Last edited by Railer13; 01-09-2019 at 01:46 PM.
  #139  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:50 PM
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Technically, the list should be of those times Obama threatened a national emergency and got on all three broadcast networks. The list you linked to, Railer, just contains all his Oval Office speeches. Doesn't say who carried them though, and the links go to the speeches themselves.

Then once we find out when Obama faked a national emergency to get some free air time, then we have to check the marketing messages sent out by the Obama 2012 campaign to see if he both (a) fund-raised prior to the announcement, and then (b), fund-raised immediately after the announcement.

Last edited by JohnT; 01-09-2019 at 01:50 PM.
  #140  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:52 PM
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Somehow I doubt he'll ever find anything. For right wingers the accusation is all that matters.
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  #141  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:55 PM
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Seriously, if the GOP wants 2020 trouble in the largest Red state in the country, just go ahead and seize our land for your stupid wall.
  #142  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:55 PM
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Technically, the list should be of those times Obama threatened a national emergency and got on all three broadcast networks. The list you linked to, Railer, just contains all his Oval Office speeches. Doesn't say who carried them though, and the links go to the speeches themselves.

Then once we find out when Obama faked a national emergency to get some free air time, then we have to check the marketing messages sent out by the Obama 2012 campaign to see if he both (a) fund-raised prior to the announcement, and then (b), fund-raised immediately after the announcement.
True enough, but I thought that list would be a good place to start. I'm just trying to help HD in his homework. But you're narrowing the scope even further. We should expect an answer from him shortly.
  #143  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:56 PM
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Technically, the list should be of those times Obama threatened a national emergency and got on all three broadcast networks. The list you linked to, Railer, just contains all his Oval Office speeches. Doesn't say who carried them though, and the links go to the speeches themselves.

Then once we find out when Obama faked a national emergency to get some free air time, then we have to check the marketing messages sent out by the Obama 2012 campaign to see if he both (a) fund-raised prior to the announcement, and then (b), fund-raised immediately after the announcement.
Or we could just assume that, if it ever happened, FoxNews and a shitload of other Obama haters would have been shouting it from the rooftops, and rightfully so.
  #144  
Old 01-09-2019, 01:58 PM
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True enough, but I thought that list would be a good place to start. I'm just trying to help HD in his homework. But you're narrowing the scope even further. We should expect an answer from him shortly.
Exactly. This is a team exercise in research. :b:

HD, I hope you appreciate all this help, I really do. It would be... ungenerous... if you didn't.
  #145  
Old 01-09-2019, 02:00 PM
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A finer example of moving the goalposts would be difficult to imagine.
Well, yes, JohnT did move the goalposts to five yards in front of you and lower the crossbar to two feet high by widening the time window from Trump's less than ten minutes to three full hours. Show some gratitude.
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  #146  
Old 01-09-2019, 02:00 PM
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I don't think we'll see him back until he sees a single line in somebody's post that he thinks he can snipe to make some internet points. And he'll ignore the entire conversation up to that point as well as everything else in the post he decides to pick that one line from.
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  #147  
Old 01-09-2019, 02:06 PM
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I don't think we'll see him back until he sees a single line in somebody's post that he thinks he can snipe to make some internet points. And he'll ignore the entire conversation up to that point as well as everything else in the post he decides to pick that one line from.
This is a very fine description of HD's MO.

This thread is now completely hijacked, but I will say that it's been far more interesting and entertaining than the subject of the thread.
  #148  
Old 01-09-2019, 02:16 PM
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Riemann Riemann is offline
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I asked this in the other thread, but no reply - does anyone know why Trump waited until now (with Dem House) to try to fund his wall? Why did he wait 2 years?
  #149  
Old 01-09-2019, 02:17 PM
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running coach running coach is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Riemann View Post
I asked this in the other thread, but no reply - does anyone know why Trump waited until now (with Dem House) to try to fund his wall? Why did he wait 2 years?
He was busy failing elsewhere.
  #150  
Old 01-09-2019, 02:18 PM
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He didn't wait two years to try and fund it, he waited two years to complain that the Dems weren't cooperating.
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