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  #2801  
Old 03-29-2017, 03:25 AM
galen ubal is offline
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Originally Posted by Crazyhorse View Post
As of 2015 coal and LNG were tied at 33% each. I'm sure they will continue their current trajectories in the long term despite the Cheeto factor. But without the economic and environmental pressures against using coal I'm not so sure anyone would have had the incentive to switch to LNG and invest in improving its efficiency in the first place.

If regulation is lifted on coal pollution and fracking to produce LNG (it's better than coal but by no means a perfect energy source) there might not be enough incentive for the next better source to be developed and widely adopted for a very long time.
Here's a pretty useful page from the same organization, showing electrical generation from 2007-2016. Looks like coal dropped by about a third, while LNG increased by a slightly greater amount.*
What's really striking, to me, is the increase in solar. From 612 (Thousand MwH) to 36754! Granted, subsidies would help, but still...were I inclined to invest in a particular part of the energy field, I'd give that one serious thought.

*I blush to confess, my big mathematical blind spot is this whole increases by/decreases by X% thing. I just don't seem to be able to work it out. So please correct me if I mess it up.

Last edited by galen ubal; 03-29-2017 at 03:25 AM.
  #2802  
Old 03-29-2017, 07:26 AM
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Originally Posted by galen ubal View Post
Here's a pretty useful page from the same organization, showing electrical generation from 2007-2016. Looks like coal dropped by about a third, while LNG increased by a slightly greater amount.*
What's really striking, to me, is the increase in solar. From 612 (Thousand MwH) to 36754! Granted, subsidies would help, but still...were I inclined to invest in a particular part of the energy field, I'd give that one serious thought.

*I blush to confess, my big mathematical blind spot is this whole increases by/decreases by X% thing. I just don't seem to be able to work it out. So please correct me if I mess it up.
I heard a statistic recently (sorry, no cite - it was on the radio) that said solar power generation cost about half as much per kilowatt-hour than coal. The cost of solar has plummeted in the last seven years (not due to Obama, mind you, although credit to him for some mild facilitation of progress compared to the opposition of the previous administration) and the main issue now is capacity.
  #2803  
Old 03-29-2017, 07:31 AM
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And every time I hear Mack the Knife I think that Lucy Brown would be Lucy Van Pelt's name if she married Charlie Brown.
Me too!!
  #2804  
Old 03-29-2017, 08:59 AM
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I heard a statistic recently (sorry, no cite - it was on the radio) that said solar power generation cost about half as much per kilowatt-hour than coal. The cost of solar has plummeted in the last seven years (not due to Obama, mind you, although credit to him for some mild facilitation of progress compared to the opposition of the previous administration) and the main issue now is capacity.
I've read quite a bit on this and half seems very unlikely. Measuring these costs is a lot like measuring unemployment, there's a lot of ways to slice up the data. It is further complicated by the fact that costs vary so much from country to country. For example, solar is cheap in Germany but expensive in France. Overall there's a few things:

1. Coal (as a commodity) has been pretty steadily becoming cheaper. It has become cheap for a few reasons but one critical reason is investors don't want to invest in new coal burning plants because they see it as a dying technology/trend.

2. Onshore wind has consistently been a big winner at a cost per MWh for several years; however, it has been steady. So are there are more costs gains to be made for onshore wind? I don't know, maybe not.

3. Solar is still a little bit more expensive when you factor in costs of opening a plant. The big benefit to solar is once the plant is open it becomes pretty cheap due in large part to the lack of transport costs for fuel. However, you can't just ignore the costs of opening the plant (in my view) and when you factor that in solar is still good but not cheapest. The promising thing is that since 2009 solar has been taking a nosedive in cost as the technology to open a plant becomes cheaper. I.e. the dividends for the investment in R&D seem to be starting to pay off.

4. Natural gas has been pretty consistent as the cheapest fossil fuel on a per MWh basis when including plant costs and transportation costs.

5. Biomass currently tends to be very expensive in large part due to high transport costs and relatively high plant costs.

My apologies if any of my information is out of date. I try to keep up to date on this but of course that isn't always possible.

Last edited by BeepKillBeep; 03-29-2017 at 09:00 AM.
  #2805  
Old 03-29-2017, 10:23 AM
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3. Solar is still a little bit more expensive when you factor in costs of opening a plant.
More expensive than opening a coal plant, then?
  #2806  
Old 03-29-2017, 10:37 AM
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1. Coal (as a commodity) has been pretty steadily becoming cheaper. It has become cheap for a few reasons but one critical reason is investors don't want to invest in new coal burning plants because they see it as a dying technology/trend.
Is this because coal companies are not investing any money into R&D/new facilities and passing on the savings to the end user (not out of the niceness of their black, coal-burning hearts, but because of competition)? Because the older a plant gets, the more the upkeep will cost.
  #2807  
Old 03-29-2017, 11:02 AM
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An awful lot of it is getting shipped overseas to China, where they have more coal-fired power plants than anywhere else in the world.

I only know this because corporations with coal interests in Canada, Montana and Wyoming were trying to build railway terminals at various points on the coast here in the PNW and our angry citizenry stopped them (at least here in Oregon, and I think Washington got rid of most of them, too). Was proud to be part of that. I'm sure we'll have to keep doing it, same as net neutrality is back under attack under a Republican administration.
Considering how fast China is moving away from coal, it would be a losing proposition to bet the farm on the continuation of coal exports to China.

Over the next 5 years, it is predicted that China will become a net exporter of coal.

At that point, you won't be able to give the stuff away. Idiotic Trump policies are going to eventually cripple the US economy. Of course he does not give a shit; he'll be gone with money in his personal pockets by then. That's how he does business.

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  #2808  
Old 03-29-2017, 11:23 AM
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Is this because coal companies are not investing any money into R&D/new facilities and passing on the savings to the end user (not out of the niceness of their black, coal-burning hearts, but because of competition)? Because the older a plant gets, the more the upkeep will cost.
I have a saying. Nothing is ever for a single reason, so take this as being one cause among I'm sure many. Although all people are political, when somebody has their investor hat on they don't care about "climate change is real" or "climate change is a hoax", they are chasing return on investment. Renewables are where energy production is going and for the capital risk-takers out there they want to get in early. So to get the financing to build a new coal plant is becoming more challenging. It doesn't have the zazzle of a shiny new solar plant or wind farm.

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More expensive than opening a coal plant, then?
On a capacity basis, a solar plant is still more expensive than a coal plant. With many caveats. If you poke around, you'll very quickly find a very pretty graph that shows the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) for solar and coal is pretty much equal. But this graph that circulates everywhere is for Germany. And in Germany solar is cheap. So making this measurement on cost is tricky because it is very local.

Since I know most of you are American, if you look at the EIA annual report. The 2016 report shows that the LCOE will still be very regional, but solar is expect to continue to be increasingly competitive until it reaches parity by about 2040. And again as above, I think is both driving capital investment and a result from all of the R&D investment.
  #2809  
Old 03-29-2017, 11:48 AM
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Considering how fast China is moving away from coal, it would be a losing proposition to bet the farm on the continuation of coal exports to China.

Over the next 5 years, it is predicted that China will become a net exporter of coal.

At that point, you won't be able to give the stuff away. Idiotic Trump policies are going to eventually cripple the US economy. Of course he does not give a shit; he'll be gone with money in his personal pockets by then. That's how he does business.
I agree. I think establishing the railway terminal ports at the coast was the main thing. They didn't much care what the trains carried to ship overseas from our coast. Coal was what we were fighting, but they also wanted to transport shale oil. No doubt nuclear waste was next (kidding, I hope).
  #2810  
Old 03-29-2017, 11:49 AM
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So, Trump maybe intends to steal the Rio Grande. (Grand theft Grande?)
  #2811  
Old 03-29-2017, 02:29 PM
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So, Trump maybe intends to steal the Rio Grande. (Grand theft Grande?)
I prefer "grande theft rio."
  #2812  
Old 03-29-2017, 03:10 PM
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I prefer "grande theft rio."

Well, it is BIG. HUUGE, in fact.


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  #2813  
Old 03-29-2017, 03:21 PM
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I prefer "grande theft rio."
Soundtrack by Duran, Duran.
  #2814  
Old 03-29-2017, 04:49 PM
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A supervisor at the Energy Department's international climate office told staff this week not to use the phrases "climate change," "emissions reduction" or "Paris Agreement" in written memos, briefings or other written communication
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...36655?cmpid=sf
  #2815  
Old 03-29-2017, 05:11 PM
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A supervisor at the Energy Department's international climate office told staff this week not to use the phrases "climate change," "emissions reduction" or "Paris Agreement" in written memos, briefings or other written communication
http://www.politico.com/story/2017/0...36655?cmpid=sf
This administration believes very strongly in magic words. As you know, now that the president has said the words "radical Islamic terrorism," ISIS has been defeated (or very nearly so. Definitely when he says it again louder). Similarly, if you don't write "climate change" it doesn't exist.
  #2816  
Old 03-29-2017, 05:20 PM
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This administration believes very strongly in magic words. As you know, now that the president has said the words "radical Islamic terrorism," ISIS has been defeated (or very nearly so. Definitely when he says it again louder)...
I think you're supposed to say it a certain number of times in a row, looking into a mirror. Maybe the holdup is that it was left up to Trump to figure out exactly how many times, and after about 3 or 4 times he exhales loudly "BORING!"
  #2817  
Old 03-29-2017, 05:29 PM
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And today's Frederick Douglass moment goes to Susan B. Anthony, who Trump is shocked that women have heard of.
  #2818  
Old 03-29-2017, 07:22 PM
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She was literally on the money.
  #2819  
Old 03-29-2017, 07:26 PM
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And today's Frederick Douglass moment goes to Susan B. Anthony, who Trump is shocked that women have heard of.
Not only is it a Frederick Douglas moment but it also serves as a Abraham Lincoln moment.

Didn't see this in this thread:

Trump: "Great president. Most people don't even know he was a Republican. Does anyone know? Lot of people don't know that."



Trump, when your too ignorant to know just how deep your ignorance goes...
  #2820  
Old 03-29-2017, 07:33 PM
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New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie will advise Trump panel on opioid addiction.

You gotta be shittin me.

Later in the day, Two former Chris Christie aides get prison for New Jersey bridge revenge plot.

  #2821  
Old 03-29-2017, 09:55 PM
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Not only is it a Frederick Douglas moment but it also serves as a Abraham Lincoln moment.

Didn't see this in this thread:

Trump: "Great president. Most people don't even know he was a Republican. Does anyone know? Lot of people don't know that."



Trump, when your too ignorant to know just how deep your ignorance goes...
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Originally Posted by either Time Magazine or The Onion. I can't tell anymore.
Trump then said Republicans need to spread the word that Lincoln was a Republican, appearing to be unaware of the fact that the GOP is commonly referred to as the "party of Lincoln.""Let's take an ad, let's use one of those PACs," he said
Good. God.
  #2822  
Old 03-29-2017, 10:48 PM
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So, Trump maybe intends to steal the Rio Grande. (Grand theft Grande?)
The situation really is hysterically funny - i guess they really didn't think that whole "wall thing" through.

It makes me really wonder about Trump. He's supposedly a real estate super genius. Did he not think about how the wall would impact those river views? He's really not going to be stupid enough to try and build on the Mexican side without permission, is he?

I'm starting to seriously wonder what the hell was going on inside the Trump Organization. The ACHA debacle proves that "Mr. Art of the Deal" can't negotiate worth a damn- I could do a whole essay on how horrible that negotiation was.

And now he loses sight of the fact that a 30 foot wall next to a river is going to black the view?
  #2823  
Old 03-29-2017, 10:59 PM
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The situation really is hysterically funny - i guess they really didn't think that whole "wall thing" through.

It makes me really wonder about Trump. He's supposedly a real estate super genius. Did he not think about how the wall would impact those river views? He's really not going to be stupid enough to try and build on the Mexican side without permission, is he?

I'm starting to seriously wonder what the hell was going on inside the Trump Organization. The ACHA debacle proves that "Mr. Art of the Deal" can't negotiate worth a damn- I could do a whole essay on how horrible that negotiation was.

And now he loses sight of the fact that a 30 foot wall next to a river is going to black the view?

Nobody could possibly have foreseen that building a wall would be so difficult. Nobody. And who knew that there was a river in the way? Trumpsters are not geography nerds - they skipped that class in school.

Anyway, it's probably Obama's fault.
  #2824  
Old 03-29-2017, 11:20 PM
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Nobody could possibly have foreseen that building a wall would be so difficult. Nobody. And who knew that there was a river in the way? Trumpsters are not geography nerds - they skipped that class in school.

Anyway, it's probably Obama's fault.
I wonder if he realizes that the Rio Grande is just under 1,900 miles long, and that a lot of that is through extremely inhospitable and uninhabited land? Has he ever seen West Texas on the ground, or has he just flown over it?
  #2825  
Old 03-29-2017, 11:20 PM
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Trump: "Great president. Most people don't even know he was a Republican. Does anyone know? Lot of people don't know that."
Oh yeah, Lincoln. That was the guy who said:

Quote:
"I am not a Know-Nothing. That is certain. How could I be? How can any one who abhors the oppression of negroes, be in favor of degrading classes of white people? Our progress in degeneracy appears to me to be pretty rapid. As a nation, we began by declaring that "all men are created equal." We now practically read it "all men are created equal, except Negroes." When the Know-Nothings get control, it will read "all men are created equal, except Negroes and foreigners and Catholics." When it comes to this, I shall prefer emigrating to some country where they make no pretense of loving liberty - to Russia, for instance, where despotism can be taken pure and without the base alloy of hypocrisy." The Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln edited by Roy P. Basler, Volume II, "Letter to Joshua F. Speed" (August 24, 1855), p. 323.
and

Quote:
"I have never studied the art of paying compliments to women; but I must say that if all that has been said by orators and poets since the creation of the world in praise of women were applied to the women of America, it would not do them justice for their conduct during this war. I will close by saying, God bless the women of America!" The Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln edited by Roy P. Basler, Volume VII, "Remarks at Closing of Sanitary Fair, Washington D.C." (March 18, 1864), p. 254.
and

Quote:
"At what point shall we expect the approach of danger? By what means shall we fortify against it? Shall we expect some transatlantic military giant, to step the Ocean, and crush us at a blow? Never! All the armies of Europe, Asia and Africa combined, with all the treasure of the earth (our own excepted) in their military chest; with a Bonaparte for a commander, could not by force, take a drink from the Ohio, or make a track on the Blue Ridge, in a trial of a thousand years. At what point, then, is the approach of danger to be expected? I answer, if it ever reach us it must spring up amongst us. It cannot come from abroad. If destruction be our lot, we must ourselves be its author and finisher. As a nation of freemen, we must live through all time, or die by suicide. The Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln edited by Roy P. Basler, Volume I, "Address Before the Young Men's Lyceum of Springfield, Illinois (January 27, 1838), p. 109.
and

Quote:
"I have been shown in the files of the War Department a statement of the Adjutant General of Massachusetts, that you are the mother of five sons who have died gloriously on the field of battle. I feel how weak and fruitless must be any words of mine which should attempt to beguile you from the grief of a loss so overwhelming. But I cannot refrain from tendering to you the consolation that may be found in the thanks of the Republic they died to save. I pray that our Heavenly Father may assuage the anguish of your bereavement, and leave you only the cherished memory of the loved and lost, and the solemn pride that must be yours, to have laid so costly a sacrifice upon the altar of Freedom." The Collected Works of Abraham Lincoln edited by Roy P. Basler, Volume VIII, "Letter to Mrs. Lydia Bixby" (November 21, 1864), pp. 116-117.

I'm sure he would be honored to have Cheeto approve of his work. You know it means a lot coming from him because he has great words. Phenomenal words. The best words.
  #2826  
Old 03-29-2017, 11:41 PM
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And today's Frederick Douglass moment goes to Susan B. Anthony, who Trump is shocked that women have heard of.
To be fair, he first heard about her himself earlier in the day when somebody handed him his speech for the event.
  #2827  
Old 03-29-2017, 11:51 PM
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To be fair, he first heard about her himself earlier in the day when somebody handed him his speech for the event.
How would he? The Susan B. Anthony dollar is just too large for Trump to get a solid grasp upon with his tiny...oh, this is just too, too easy. It's not even fun anymore. Maybe someone can convince Melania to modify his hair into a "pussy hat"-shaped do and spray it with pink dye.

Stranger

Last edited by Stranger On A Train; 03-29-2017 at 11:51 PM.
  #2828  
Old 03-29-2017, 11:54 PM
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Dear Og, ol' Abe could put some words together.
  #2829  
Old 03-29-2017, 11:58 PM
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How would he? The Susan B. Anthony dollar is just too large for Trump to get a solid grasp upon with his tiny...oh, this is just too, too easy. It's not even fun anymore. Maybe someone can convince Melania to modify his hair into a "pussy hat"-shaped do and spray it with pink dye.

Stranger
"Heard poor people have to use coins. Sad. All my money is big and has men on it."
  #2830  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:08 AM
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"Heard poor people have to use coins. Sad. All my money is big and has men on it."
Yeah, but it looks like this.

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  #2831  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:26 AM
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Yeah, but it looks like this.
Or this.
  #2832  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:46 AM
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Way I heard it, Trump spent a bunch of time hearing about how American pharm companies pumped out a metric buttload of opioids, like vicodin and oxy, distributed them in a flood just about everywhere, all totally legal and somehow, some way, they ended up in the wrong hands! Gasp!

And then Il Douche starts yammering on about how this proves we need the Wall, keep Mexican drug cartels from flooding our streets with drugs. Maybe this is just a story, which would be nice for once. Being right about him is cold comfort.
  #2833  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:47 AM
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Or this.
That would explain why he fevrently believes that he's a billionaire.

Stranger
  #2834  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:56 AM
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Dear Og, ol' Abe could put some words together.
Well, Trump can put words together, too. But when 'Bam did, they made sense.*


*Kudos to anyone who sees what I did there.
  #2835  
Old 03-30-2017, 01:25 AM
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The situation really is hysterically funny - i guess they really didn't think that whole "wall thing" through.

It makes me really wonder about Trump. He's supposedly a real estate super genius. Did he not think about how the wall would impact those river views? He's really not going to be stupid enough to try and build on the Mexican side without permission, is he?

I'm starting to seriously wonder what the hell was going on inside the Trump Organization. The ACHA debacle proves that "Mr. Art of the Deal" can't negotiate worth a damn- I could do a whole essay on how horrible that negotiation was.

And now he loses sight of the fact that a 30 foot wall next to a river is going to black the view?
It's not just views. People who don't live in the dryer states don't even think about access to water much, but people on both sides need access to the river for irrigation and drinking water. Whoever has the river on their side of the wall controls that access; does anyone think Mexico would just let us have it?

Last edited by eulalia; 03-30-2017 at 01:27 AM.
  #2836  
Old 03-30-2017, 03:35 AM
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Does the Rio Grande even have that much water? What little I've seen of it, looks like a rather tired creek.
  #2837  
Old 03-30-2017, 08:55 AM
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Somehow The Creeko Grande doesn't have the right ring to it.
  #2838  
Old 03-30-2017, 09:09 AM
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How about The Rio Tall? That's one siza below Grande, isn't it?
  #2839  
Old 03-30-2017, 09:12 AM
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Does the Rio Grande even have that much water? What little I've seen of it, looks like a rather tired creek.
By the time it gets to the Border, quite a bit has been sucked out for irrigation upstream. I knew some folks with pecan farms in Las Cruces & they used a lot....
  #2840  
Old 03-30-2017, 09:20 AM
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How about The Rio Tall? That's one siza below Grande, isn't it?

You win the Internet!
  #2841  
Old 03-30-2017, 09:20 AM
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How about The Rio Tall? That's one siza below Grande, isn't it?
Bigly?
  #2842  
Old 03-30-2017, 09:27 AM
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Dear Og, ol' Abe could put some words together.
No kidding. I'm one big goosebump after reading those quotations.
  #2843  
Old 03-30-2017, 11:41 AM
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Trump has managed a achieve 35% approval rating according to Gallup. That's lower than Clinton or Obama at any point in their terms, and the lowest first-year approval rating of any president ever.
  #2844  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:01 PM
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Maybe we can change the wall to a limbo pole. How low can he go?
  #2845  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Bridget Burke View Post
By the time it gets to the Border, quite a bit has been sucked out for irrigation upstream. I knew some folks with pecan farms in Las Cruces & they used a lot....
You know you're in the West when the local paper reports on the scheduled release of river water from a reservoir. The release of water from the Caballo reservoir means that there should actually be a good flow of water in the Rio Grande from basically T or C on in the next few days.
  #2846  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:25 PM
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How about The Rio Tall? That's one siza below Grande, isn't it?
Make Rio Venti Again!
  #2847  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:31 PM
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Make Rio Venti Again!

It's funny, but those Starbucks abrevs mean literally large, large and twenty.
  #2848  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:34 PM
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Trump has managed a achieve 35% approval rating according to Gallup. That's lower than Clinton or Obama at any point in their terms, and the lowest first-year approval rating of any president ever.
Am I the only one who thinks the footnote in the first chart is damn funny?

Quote:
^Trump's first-year low is preliminary, as of March 29, 2017
  #2849  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:48 PM
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Am I the only one who thinks the footnote in the first chart is damn funny?
He's still only two-thirds of the way there.
  #2850  
Old 03-30-2017, 12:57 PM
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Am I the only one who thinks the footnote in the first chart is damn funny?
Nope. That is pretty damned funny.
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