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  #401  
Old 04-26-2019, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by Ryan_Liam View Post
10% VAT is not regressive, Amazon not paying its taxes, which your best pal Pete has not even outlined yet, is regressive. The only liar here is the candidate who is doing the lie of omission, and it sure aint my man Yang.
Regressive is when a tax effects lower income people proportionally more than higher income people. It doesn't just mean "bad". It's a matter of definition and a VAT on consumer goods is well known to be regressive. Your buddy Yang knows perfectly well that it won't meaningfully change Amazon's tax burden. So, he's a liar by pretending it will.
  #402  
Old 04-26-2019, 07:34 PM
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Is Democrats attacking each other the best way to get Individual 1 voted out?
To some degree yes, at this point in the process, depending on the nature of the "attacks." It is fair game for Ryan Liam to argue, as he does below, that he sees massive structural issues that require big and disruptive ideas to address, and to be dissatisfied with candidates who are not offering what he sees as those big disruptive ideas.

And it is fair game for others of us to point out how specific big disruptive ideas are not only not likely to fix the problems they are aimed at but may in fact make them much worse, or how specific big disruptive ideas may make great sales campaigns but have no chance of actually happening.

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<snip> ... This is the problem with you older types, there are massive structural issues in the US economy and in quality of life, and your support goes to someone who will retain the status quo as much as possible.



What 'big ideas' Do Biden, Beto and Buttigieg have? I'll wait.

Beto is getting sidelined as he's not needed due to Buttigieg and Biden throwing their hats into the ring. Yang is getting sidelined because his policies are as radical the same way Bernies are.
You of course are free to think what you want but being a pragmatic incrementalist ≠ retaining the status quo as much as possible.

And indeed those candidates are less about the disruptive big idea than movement in the right directions that won't cause more harms than goods and that can be delivered and not just promised. And being able to win. Failing gloriously is, IMHO, not preferable to succeeding only well.

Beto's getting sidelined because he is seeming to be more hat than cattle. Buttigieg will likely get sidelined too but will succeed in setting his stage for future accomplishments. Yang (and this is his thread) won't get off the sideline to begin with but he will likely succeed in getting UBI talked about some during the debates.
  #403  
Old 04-27-2019, 12:38 AM
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Yang will be in Iowa this weekend then off to Seattle next week. He's added a stop at Detroit on the tour.

On his tweets today, he retweeted an article on a study that could affect climate change.

Massive restoration of world’s forests would cancel out a decade of CO2 emissions, analysis suggests


Quote:
Replenishing the world’s forests on a grand scale would suck enough carbon dioxide from the atmosphere to cancel out a decade of human emissions, according to an ambitious new study.

Scientists have established there is room for an additional 1.2 trillion trees to grow in parks, woods and abandoned land across the planet.

If such a goal were accomplished, ecologist Dr Thomas Crowther said it would outstrip every other method for tackling climate change – from building wind turbines to vegetarian diets.
. . .
The same approach, using machine learning and AI to analyse the enormous data set, allowed the researchers to predict the number of trees that could feasibly be planted in empty patches around the world.
What's nice is that it combines both climate change and AI together.

Rolling Stone
has Yang at #9 of 24 candidates. High five for the Yang Gang.

The RS Politics 2020 Democratic Primary Leaderboard

Quote:
Meanwhile, a groundswell of extremely online – and if his fundraising numbers are any indication, real-life — support has buoyed universal basic income proponent Andrew Yang to number nine. The #YangGang lives.
On Anderson Cooper 360, a reporter went to sit with 8 Democratic voters to talk about their thoughts about Joe Biden as he entered the race. 3 people said they'd vote for Biden. 2 people mentioned Yang. They didn't say they'd vote for him, just that he had some interesting ideas.

Tucker Carlson talked about Yang on a show on Fox News where he was the supposed guest. Tucker talked about how Yang was the only candidate on either side who was talking about what he thought was the major issue affecting the country, which is automation. He also gives props to Tulsi Gabbard for an issue and laughs about the media fawning over Beto and Buttigieg.

I thought this interview on Fox Nation right after the LA rally was pretty amusing. Nothing novel about the questions, but there was a guy in the background moving the Yangbill behind them. The last question the interviewer asked was what are the YangGang colors. Yang said they were red, white and blue based on the Math hat (Make America Think Harder) that the interviewer just asked about. Yang spoke about how he's looking forward to Trump making up a nickname for him.

From 538, We Asked Democratic Activists Who They’re Backing — And Who They’d Hate To See Win on April 22, 2019. Yang has a 9% share of activists who are considering him. Yang had a 35% share of activists who would NOT consider him, tied with McAuliffe, who is already out. Beating Yang is Delaney with a 38% share, Biden with a 42% share, Bernie with a 50% share, and Tulsi with a 58% share.

Nate Silver on twitter a couple days ago, referencing the whole thing with Trump and Hillary back in 2016 about taco trucks on every corner.

Quote:
Sort of disappointed that @AndrewYang doesn't have a program to subsidize taco trucks in taco-deprived cities.
Yang's response:

Quote:
Thanks Nate - I do love tacos and think all Americans should have access to good ones.
A positive article in the National Review.

Quote:
The appeal of his technocratic ideas — some feasible, some not — shows that there are voters interested in non-ideological solutions.

If you’re paying attention to presidential politics, you should be paying attention to Andrew Yang, a tech entrepreneur running for president as a Democrat.

Yang is worth taking seriously not because he has a real shot at the nomination (he comes in at about 1 percent in most polls), but because, unlike most of the politicians in the field with him, he has a policy agenda that features genuinely new ideas that, even if unworkable, augur interesting times for the future of American politics.
, , ,
Yang is worth paying attention to not because those solutions are the right ones, but because he’s identifying many of the right problems and because his approach deviates from the typical political fare. He matters for what he reveals about our political moment and what is likely to come next. That future will have more politicians, on both sides of the aisle, who sound a lot more like Andrew Yang.
There was a bit of controversy a couple days ago. USA Today put out a poll asking which Presidential candidates people were talking about. Yang, Bernie and Marianne Williamson topped the list. USA Today put out an article sharing the results of the poll and some essays they'd received about the candidates. Later, they put out an article saying that polls like this can be suspect, even though it's their own poll.
  #404  
Old 04-27-2019, 06:43 AM
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Regressive is when a tax effects lower income people proportionally more than higher income people. It doesn't just mean "bad". It's a matter of definition and a VAT on consumer goods is well known to be regressive. Your buddy Yang knows perfectly well that it won't meaningfully change Amazon's tax burden. So, he's a liar by pretending it will.
But he'd only be a liar if he was committed to VAT being the only solution to the problem of Amazon paying its tax, so you seem to be strawmanning VAT into a be all and end all solution to this problem, which Yang through his policies himself has said isn't the case. Sounds like you're lying here bud.

That 'regressive tax' Which I've been over and over and over in this thread, is subjective considering the tax on consumption would help fund social programmes designed to alleviate poverty, such as free healthcare, if it was that terrible, the UK would of abandoned it decades ago, but we haven't, wonder why that is?

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DSeid
You of course are free to think what you want but being a pragmatic incrementalist ≠ retaining the status quo as much as possible.
Bernie is a pragmatic incrementalist, your definition is akin to plate tectonics.

Quote:
And indeed those candidates are less about the disruptive big idea than movement in the right directions that won't cause more harms than goods and that can be delivered and not just promised. And being able to win. Failing gloriously is, IMHO, not preferable to succeeding only well.
Rubbish, the UK after WWII instituted free healthcare, and this was when it was virtually bankrupt, the US can do the same thing. There's no excuse.
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Last edited by Ryan_Liam; 04-27-2019 at 06:43 AM.
  #405  
Old 04-27-2019, 07:14 PM
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Tucker Carlson [...] also gives props to Tulsi Gabbard for an issue
Not at all surprising.
  #406  
Old 04-27-2019, 07:16 PM
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duplicate post

Last edited by Rick Kitchen; 04-27-2019 at 07:17 PM.
  #407  
Old 04-27-2019, 07:29 PM
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But he'd only be a liar if he was committed to VAT being the only solution to the problem of Amazon paying its tax, so you seem to be strawmanning VAT into a be all and end all solution to this problem, which Yang through his policies himself has said isn't the case. Sounds like you're lying here bud.
I just don't get it. You've been shown that a VAT is not going get Amazon to pay more taxes at all. A VAT, in the end, is a consumer tax. It's lying to say it's even a small part of the solution.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-27-2019 at 07:33 PM.
  #408  
Old 04-27-2019, 07:54 PM
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And as far as his not claiming it's the total solution, once again quoting from your buddy's VAT page:
Quote:
A VAT makes it impossible for them to benefit from the American people and infrastructure without paying their fair share.
Read that slowly. A VAT makes it impossible for Amazon not to pay its fair share.
  #409  
Old 04-28-2019, 08:31 AM
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And as far as his not claiming it's the total solution, once again quoting from your buddy's VAT page:

Read that slowly. A VAT makes it impossible for Amazon not to pay its fair share.
It still doesn't mean that he using that as the lynchpin to finance UBI.

Quote:
I just don't get it. You've been shown that a VAT is not going get Amazon to pay more taxes at all. A VAT, in the end, is a consumer tax. It's lying to say it's even a small part of the solution.
Business to business transactions also have to pay VAT, weird how you didn't point that out.
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  #410  
Old 04-28-2019, 08:55 AM
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Business to business transactions also have to pay VAT, weird how you didn't point that out.
It's not weird. This is the last time I'm going to try and explain your buddy's plan to you. From investopedia
Quote:
How a VAT Works

A VAT is levied on the gross margin at each point in the manufacturing-distribution-sales process of an item. The tax is assessed and collected at each stage, in contrast to a sales tax, which is only assessed and paid by the consumer at the very end of the supply chain.

Say, for example, Dulce is an expensive candy manufactured and sold in the country of Alexia. Alexia has a 10% value-added tax.

1) Dulce’s manufacturer buys the raw materials for $2.00, plus a VAT of $0.20 – payable to the government of Alexia – for a total price of $2.20.

2) The manufacturer then sells Dulce to a retailer for $5.00 plus a VAT of 50 cents for a total of $5.50. However, the manufacturer renders only 30 cents to Alexia, which is the total VAT at this point, minus the prior VAT charged by the raw material supplier. Note that the 30 cents also equals 10% of the manufacturer’s gross margin of $3.00.

3) Finally, the retailer sells Dulce to consumers for $10 plus a VAT of $1 for a total of $11. The retailer renders 50 cents to Alexia, which is the total VAT at this point ($1), minus the prior 50-cent VAT charged by the manufacturer. The 50 cents also represents 10% of the retailer’s gross margin on Dulce.
So you can see, the cost of the VAT is handed down at each step so the end user is the only one paying. Big companies would only really pay VAT on things not part of their core business/supply chain.
  #411  
Old 04-28-2019, 11:44 AM
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Also:
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Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
Your buddy Yang knows perfectly well that it won't meaningfully change Amazon's tax burden. So, he's a liar by pretending it will.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan_Liam View Post
But he'd only be a liar if he was committed to VAT being the only solution to the problem of Amazon paying its tax, so you seem to be strawmanning VAT into a be all and end all solution to this problem, which Yang through his policies himself has said isn't the case. .
Quote:
Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
And as far as his not claiming it's the total solution, once again quoting from your buddy's VAT page:

Read that slowly. A VAT makes it impossible for Amazon not to pay its fair share.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ryan_Liam View Post
It still doesn't mean that he using that as the lynchpin to finance UBI.
See how you changed the subject? We weren't talking about financing UBI, we were talking about making Amazon pay its fair share.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-28-2019 at 11:45 AM.
  #412  
Old 04-28-2019, 04:05 PM
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Also:

See how you changed the subject? We weren't talking about financing UBI, we were talking about making Amazon pay its fair share.
They're inextricably linked, VAT is used in part to finance UBI, come on now, you can do better than that.

Quote:
It's not weird. This is the last time I'm going to try and explain your buddy's plan to you. From investopedia
You've failed to explain the first time, this being after I told you numerous times that framing the VAT tax plan as the be all and end all of his making tech giants to pay fair tax is disingenious.

Quote:
So you can see, the cost of the VAT is handed down at each step so the end user is the only one paying. Big companies would only really pay VAT on things not part of their core business/supply chain.
Big companies pay big taxes, and VAT is most effective on high end purchases which alot of businesses do.

As for the consumer, the end user isn't the only one paying, at each step of the supply chain the tax is already paid for. If a company levies a marginal (And it is marginal) Higher price for the end user, then it's still fairer than sales tax because whilst there's no guarantee a consumer will buy the product, the resources to make and produce such product will have been already taxed.
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  #413  
Old 04-28-2019, 06:57 PM
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I am explaining some straightforward uncontroversial things that you are refusing to understand. Like I said, that was my last try.
  #414  
Old 04-28-2019, 07:43 PM
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On his tweets today, he retweeted an article on a study that could affect climate change.

Massive restoration of world’s forests would cancel out a decade of CO2 emissions, analysis suggests
Following on from the previous day's tweet, the next day the tweet was about how drones were being used to plant new trees faster than it was done in the past.

These tree-planting drones are firing ‘seed missiles’ into the ground. Less than a year later, they’re already 20 inches tall.

Quote:
In September 2018, a project in Myanmar used drones to fire “seed missiles” into remote areas of the country where trees were not growing. Less than a year later, thousands of those seed missiles have sprouted into 20-inch mangrove saplings that could literally be a case study in how technology can be used to innovate our way out of the climate change crisis.
. . .
For context, it took the Worldview Foundation 7 years to plant 6 million trees in Myanmar. Now, with the help of the drones, they hope to plant another 4 million before the end of 2019.
A piece of land in Myanmar is being used to test whether drones could successfully plant trees by firing seed missiles into the ground. Less than a year later, there has been success. Not only would it help with climate change, but it would also help curb land erosion. It takes two operators to man the drones. This is another area where automation is displacing human effort with a positive result in productivity.

Some twitter pictures of Yang's campaigning in Iowa. I'm liking that there are more women and more diversity in ages in these pictures. Also some nice pictures of the rally crowds from Yang's campaign manager's twitter feed.

Yang is polling at 2% in New Hampshire. One of the YangGang noticed something interesting about this poll. Yang is second to Bernie in winning over voters who didn't vote in 2016. In most of Yang's recent rallies, they've asked the crowd whether anyone in the crowd was caring about politics for the first time. There have been quite a number of people in his rallies responding to that.

This is the reason that polls are not always effective. As Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez notes in her interview with Stephen Colbert, polls measure who the pollsters think are likely to turn up to vote. AOC changed who turned up to vote. That made the difference for her. But that was only about 10-20K people. I don't know if it would work on a national level.

I found this hilarious, but maybe it was one of those 'you had to be there' moments. I saw the title of the post, Look who wasn't omitted off the list! There has been a lot of discussion about how MSM and particularly MSNBC have left Yang off all their graphics, so I thought that this was a MSNBC graphic that was finally corrected. When I opened the post, I found that it was a list from an email sent by the Trump campaign sent to his supporters to vote in a straw poll about which 2020 candidate is the worst. Trump is looking for who to hate on next. The pictures they chose for that email are comical. At least Yang made it to the list. There were some other candidates who were left off that list. I bet Yang would be proud.

Yang made a brief appearance on MSNBC on Sunday 4/28/19.

I was looking for poll information on UBI. I found one that showed a split in the US about UBI. Young people wanted it while older people didn't. Democrats wanted it while Republicans didn't. Women wanted it more than men. The crowds showing up for the rallies aren't indicative of this yet. This poll was taken in the latter half of 2017.

For people who like to play in the math, here are some calculations of the Freedom Dividend. Here are some of the source studies.
  #415  
Old 04-29-2019, 04:08 PM
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I am explaining some straightforward uncontroversial things that you are refusing to understand. Like I said, that was my last try.
Yeah, such as VAT being collected at each point of production, rather than it all being dumped on the consumer via a sales tax. That kind of straightforward? Or how about the kind of straightforward where it's harder to dodge paying VAT in comparison to sales tax?

Spare me your psuedo intellect.
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  #416  
Old 04-29-2019, 07:59 PM
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You don't see that the VAT is recouped by the manufacturer and retailer when the product gets to the consumer. Don't know why but that is your essential misunderstanding, if you want to work through it on your own.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-29-2019 at 08:00 PM.
  #417  
Old 04-30-2019, 04:37 PM
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You don't see that the VAT is recouped by the manufacturer and retailer when the product gets to the consumer. Don't know why but that is your essential misunderstanding, if you want to work through it on your own.
You seem to think that the product manufactured and bought by the retailer which has already had its tax paid, is guaranteed to be sold.

Do I have to keep spelling this out for you?
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  #418  
Old 04-30-2019, 05:09 PM
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So we're all gonna get rich off of Amazon's unsold merchandise? Sweet.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-30-2019 at 05:11 PM.
  #419  
Old 04-30-2019, 05:41 PM
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So we're all gonna get rich off of Amazon's unsold merchandise? Sweet.
No, looks like we're gonna get rich from all your unsold strawmen.
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  #420  
Old 04-30-2019, 06:25 PM
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I'm getting the impression that strawmen are a key demographic for Yang.

Last edited by CarnalK; 04-30-2019 at 06:25 PM.
  #421  
Old 05-01-2019, 11:05 PM
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The contrast between how the Left and Right media cover Yang has become so stark, people are beginning to wonder if the Right is being ironic. But I guess that could be said of the Left in the opposite direction.

Here's an author from The Federalist in an opinion piece in the Orange County Register:

Quote:
Amid the evil farce that the Democrats’ primary campaign seems fated to spiral into, do not sleep on Andrew Yang, the paradoxically normal oddball candidate who is gaining serious attention because of how powerfully he reveals the Left’s dueling playbooks to be grievously obsolete.

Yang occupies a zone of reality most leading Democrats simply refuse to countenance, much less engage with
. . .
But of course, the abject failure of the Obama administration to process the sweeping new social context imposed by the triumph of digital technology—summed up embarrassingly by the Commander in Chief mugging with a selfie stick in the Oval Office as his intelligence community missed both the rise of ISIS and of China as new threats—created the disastrous status quo that Trump’s election responded so angrily against, and which Democrats are still scrambling to explain away.

In fact, the field of Democratic candidates insists, simply rejecting Trump at the ballot box will heroically and magically bring back the good old days of the Obama years, while at the same time launching us toward the shiny, happy, and suspiciously mirthless future of enforced celebration and bogus harmony demanded by the Left’s cultish inquisitionists.
Yang calmly ignores all that hyperventilating and fantasizing. Seeming to recognize at a gut level that both the inert nostalgia of the Obama-besotted and the vengeful utopianism of those for whom Obama now seems reactionary are soon to be dead memes,
. . .
Running on the slogan “Humanity First,” Yang is clearly positioning himself as the candidate who serves neither increasingly automated masters nor our baser animal instincts—neither the technocratic superego of the establishment Left nor the social justice id of the radical vanguard.
On the Left, here's a piece of the discussion from 538 and Yang's chances to have a "moment":

Quote:
perry: So I have interpreted this as who is going to have a moment, not necessarily who is most likely to win.

So in that vein, I think Andrew Yang will have a moment in the debates and that will boost his profile.

Universal basic income is an issue that I think resonates with a lot of nerdy people worried about economic inequality and automation — and the debates could help him, because he is a non-politician who will come off as different from the rest of the field.

nrakich: Yeah, Yang checks a lot of boxes for the “moment” thing — low name recognition right now, but lots of room to grow. He has some passionate fans out there. He’s gotten over 100,000 donors, which is the fifth-most in the field, based on the data we have. And he’s been Googled just as much as Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris over the past 30 days.

natesilver: Also, if we’re talking about long-shot candidates, you’d rather have a candidate who’s really weird (I mean that in the nicest possible way) rather than one who’s boring.

Like, maybe nine times out of 10, Yang doesn’t make a dent at all, but that one time out of 10, he has an interesting ceiling.

I watched a couple youtube videos of behind the scenes stuff of Yang's campaign. Again, I'm impressed with how much energy goes into campaigning. After the rally, there's the compulsory selfie requirement that people stay for. One guy asked during the town hall if Yang would stay to take pictures. Yang promised to stay until everyone who wanted a picture had one. After that, there's the meeting with the donors and the volunteers who helped put together the rally. More picture taking, some behind the scenes information sharing and some personal question and answer.

I'm also impressed that before and after Yang's rally in LA with thousands of people, Yang took the time to be interviewed by completely unknown youtube channels. He gave them the same time and attention that he did with every media interview, big or small. He might run out of time for that in the future, but it was really nice of him to do.

Nice blog piece from a guy who was at his Iowa rally. He says that he's switching from Bernie to Yang. The piece reminded me that the rally had 6 people dressed up as penguins to protest what they thought was Yang's policy on climate change. Yang has said that when people have the financial boot on their throats, they might say that the penguins can wait. That doesn't mean that Yang himself doesn't see the urgency, just that people who are worried about paying their bills may not have the bandwidth to worry about it. So his first priority is to take the financial weight off, then those people might be able to mobilize more. After Yang explained, the penguins seemed happy with what they heard, clapping and smiling.

More and more, the Yang subreddit is seeing other candidates with Yang policies, taken almost verbatim from his website, things like democracy dollars and UBI explained exactly as Yang does. People are of two minds about that. On the one hand, people realize that it's the ideas that need to spread. It doesn't matter who is spreading them. On the other hand, there's something about taking without giving credit that rubs people the wrong way. It's probably a testament to the campaign that other candidates think the ideas are worth putting out there.

Emerson polling
in Texas had Yang at 3.2% with 9.1% of the 18-29 year olds.

On a C-Span interview Cenk Uygur mentioned that TYT will be hosting another interview with Yang in a week or so. I haven't heard that from the Yang camp yet.

Yang is set to rally in Seattle, WA on Friday, May 3, 2019.

Last edited by Heffalump and Roo; 05-01-2019 at 11:09 PM.
  #422  
Old 05-01-2019, 11:13 PM
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Why can i not shake the feeling that something is not right about having billionaires receive an additional $1000/month with the implementation of Yang's UBI proposal but a low-income disabled person whose income prior to UBI is funded primarily by a $700/month stipend in disability benefits, that person will only see an additional $300/month with the implementation of Yang's proposal? Are there elements that i am missing? It seems like those that need the most are getting the least.
  #423  
Old 05-01-2019, 11:46 PM
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I think it's a good idea for this kind of thing not to involve a whole bureaucracy deciding on a case-by-case basis who is eligible.

Keep in mind that the billionaire will be paying much more than $1,000 extra per month to pay for the UBI.
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  #424  
Old 05-01-2019, 11:55 PM
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No Ambi you've got it. It's a regressive redistribution funded by a tax that disproportionately impacts the poorest the most. (The regressivity of VAT as a funding source has been covered ad nauseum by now.)

Meanwhile Rasmussen/HarrisX poll with Yang polling at 0% (3/741). He is becoming a more well known entity: the "never heard of" is down to 39%. Unfortunately for him as people form opinions "unfavorable" is catching up on "no opinion", now 21% unfavorable with 8% "very unfavorable" and 13% "somewhat", compared to 28% no opinion, and the quite lagging only 13% "favorable' (10% "somewhat" and 3% very).

Quinnipiac has him overall at 1% - statistically pretty much all men and mostly conservative men.
  #425  
Old 05-02-2019, 01:23 AM
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I think it's a good idea for this kind of thing not to involve a whole bureaucracy deciding on a case-by-case basis who is eligible.
That idea is a lot more powerful if it removes some of that bureaucracy, rather than run in parallel with it which is Yang's proposal.
Quote:
Keep in mind that the billionaire will be paying much more than $1,000 extra per month to pay for the UBI.
Some billionaires might but it's a reach for most millionaires. To break even on the VAT, the government needs you to purchase $120,000 in goods and services per year (@$1000/month,10%VAT).

Last edited by CarnalK; 05-02-2019 at 01:24 AM.
  #426  
Old 05-02-2019, 02:19 AM
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I think it's a good idea for this kind of thing not to involve a whole bureaucracy deciding on a case-by-case basis who is eligible.

Keep in mind that the billionaire will be paying much more than $1,000 extra per month to pay for the UBI.
You've surprised me (in a good way) several times recently.

You may be right about the 'like' button. I'm not a fan of that for a lot of reasons, but if this place had one, I'd add one to your post.

This thread is also selling me on the idea of upvotes.
  #427  
Old 05-02-2019, 02:27 AM
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I think it's a good idea for this kind of thing not to involve a whole bureaucracy deciding on a case-by-case basis who is eligible.

Keep in mind that the billionaire will be paying much more than $1,000 extra per month to pay for the UBI.
Why can't that $1,000/month be regardless of income or source of income? Would it be unsustainable in that scenario? Why can Joe Smith pulling in $500 a month in disability receive a free and clear $1000 on top of that paltry disability-related assistance? It seems like they are being hammered for being unable to work. Why should an assistance program based on disability eligibility eat in to a proposed UBI that makes no income restrictions for literally ANYONE else, including some of the richest people in the world?

Last edited by Ambivalid; 05-02-2019 at 02:29 AM.
  #428  
Old 05-02-2019, 03:45 AM
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Why can't that $1,000/month be regardless of income or source of income? Would it be unsustainable in that scenario? Why can Joe Smith pulling in $500 a month in disability receive a free and clear $1000 on top of that paltry disability-related assistance? It seems like they are being hammered for being unable to work. Why should an assistance program based on disability eligibility eat in to a proposed UBI that makes no income restrictions for literally ANYONE else, including some of the richest people in the world?
Here's some calculations someone did about the Freedom Dividend on Reddit:

Quote:
Freedom Dividend Costs:

U.S Population - 327.2 million

Over 18 percent (77.4%) - 253.2 million

Citizen percent (93%) - 235.5 million

Headline Cost (235.5 million * $12,000/year)- 2.82 trillion

Freedom Dividend funding

10% VAT- 800 billion

Welfare overlap (Social Security disability + other welfare) - 534 billion

Rest of social security overlap - 897.8 billion

Economic growth - 600 billion

Reduced poverty expenses - 200 billion

Carbon fee - 100 billion

Financial Transaction Tax - 50 billion

Carried interest loophole - 18 billion

Total 3.2 Trillion

Funding picture (funding - cost) - 3.2T - 2.82 T = 380 billion surplus
Without the reduction for benefits that are already being paid, there would need to be an additional roughly $1.4T that would need to be accounted for.

But let's say that were possible. The bank bailout was supposed to have been $4T and that somehow got funded. Maybe funds could be moved from something else.

Let's say that money wasn't an issue. I don't think it would bother me, but wouldn't some people be concerned that there would be a bunch of people who would apply for more benefits so they could get both? ISTM that there are already a lot of people who are upset that some people are getting benefits at all. Wouldn't there be even more upset people if some people got two servings of government benefits?

That said, Yang has said that he would help people who might be affected by the regressive nature of the VAT, like those people who opted out of the UBI but are on a fixed income. If they can structure the VAT correctly, taxing the luxury goods over the necessities, that might also help to correct for some of the issues. If they can structure the VAT correctly and help people who might be adversely affected by it, that might alleviate the issue of people on benefits getting less.
  #429  
Old 05-02-2019, 04:34 AM
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Let's say that money wasn't an issue. I don't think it would bother me, but wouldn't some people be concerned that there would be a bunch of people who would apply for more benefits so they could get both? ISTM that there are already a lot of people who are upset that some people are getting benefits at all. Wouldn't there be even more upset people if some people got two servings of government benefits
Thank you for your detailed response. This gives me a clearer picture of the proposal. I just wanted to comment on this. Are you suggesting that it is *politically* untenable because if the perception arose that he was helping out those 'freeloaders' 'living high off the hog on the government's dime' he would lose critical votes? Its not "two servings" tho. These people include those who literally depend on that disability assistance for subsistence. A program that promises a benefit of $1000/month should not be affected by anything. Ideally, at least. If they weren't disabled, already at a societal disadvantage, they wouldn't need that pittance from the government meant to offset that disadvantage (however slight that offset is). The money meant to offset those disadvantages should reset the meter to 0.00 for these folks. After all, by offsetting a disadvantage, you shore up need. And those disabled folk who are currently getting disability benefits and not much else are some of the most in need of that $1000/month. I understand the realities of the matter and why it is designed the way it is. But consider me a definite non-Yang supporter.
  #430  
Old 05-02-2019, 04:54 AM
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But consider me a definite non-Yang supporter.
I'm not surprised.

But would you be a Yang supporter if the plan was the $1,000/mo above the other government benefits programs?
  #431  
Old 05-02-2019, 10:54 AM
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Here's some calculations someone did about the Freedom Dividend on Reddit:



Without the reduction for benefits that are already being paid, there would need to be an additional roughly $1.4T that would need to be accounted for.

But let's say that were possible. The bank bailout was supposed to have been $4T and that somehow got funded. Maybe funds could be moved from something else.

Let's say that money wasn't an issue. I don't think it would bother me, but wouldn't some people be concerned that there would be a bunch of people who would apply for more benefits so they could get both? ISTM that there are already a lot of people who are upset that some people are getting benefits at all. Wouldn't there be even more upset people if some people got two servings of government benefits?

That said, Yang has said that he would help people who might be affected by the regressive nature of the VAT, like those people who opted out of the UBI but are on a fixed income. If they can structure the VAT correctly, taxing the luxury goods over the necessities, that might also help to correct for some of the issues. If they can structure the VAT correctly and help people who might be adversely affected by it, that might alleviate the issue of people on benefits getting less.
The cited numbers there are a bit off. Remember we ran them here, with believable sources.

Cost is estimated by most to be $3T at the lowest with most estimating $3.8T, not $2.8T

A broad-based 10% VAT (which would be very regressive in its impact) would raise not $800B but maybe $500B.

Predictions of economic growth and reductions of poverty savings are a bit of handwaving trickledown style magical thinking. Leave it as quite debatable.

The shortfall is much worse than that "someone did" some calculations would suggest. Even with the elimination major benefit programs (such as disability, retirement & social security, welfare, and unemployment benefits) it's a $1T/yr shortfall.

Narrow the VAT so it is of less severe regressivity and of course the funding side drops down dramatically. Reduce the regressivity of the benefit side, same.

Yang's proposal includes imposing regressive new consumer taxes on the poorest while keeping their benefits static and giving new benefits, as big as the poorest get for need, to the wealthiest. He presents it as things it clearly is not and that he surely knows is what it is not and he claims the numbers add to what simple math shows they do not.

Look I'd love it if he got up to a few percent of support as I personally would prefer many other choices to Sanders and Yang is more likely to draw from that pool than anywhere else. He won't. Still the ideas he proposes are bad ideas that are more trickledown repackaged than anything else, trying to sell everyone that there is free money for everyone, or implying incorrectly that Amazon and such will pay for it.

Some of his supporters are just repeating false information that he is selling. When he says those things, knowing better, he is lying. That has to be called out.

Last edited by DSeid; 05-02-2019 at 10:54 AM.
  #432  
Old 05-02-2019, 11:54 AM
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Some of his supporters are just repeating false information that he is selling. When he says those things, knowing better, he is lying. That has to be called out.
Yes. The budgeting shortfall is what I would normally consider standard political bullshittng but pretending his VAT is a tax on big tech companies is over the line.
  #433  
Old 05-04-2019, 05:19 PM
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Last night's (5/3/19) Seattle rally was amazing. The RSVP on Facebook wasn't that high the day before, so I wasn't expecting to see a big crowd. But the reporter who covered it said it was estimated to be 3,000. I'm not good at estimating those things, but it was a crowd that looked almost as large as LA's rally. The crowd was pumped up more than the LA crowd. I watched (on livestream) as Yang was going through the crowd at the entrance. He didn't realize how large the crowd was until he got to the stage, so you could tell he wasn't prepared to see that many people.

The guy who introduced Yang at the rally was Dan Price, the CEO of Gravity Payments, who gave his employees a minimum wage of $70K/yr while cutting his own salary from $1M to $70K to fund it. He got backlash for it. That was back in 2015. He says his company is doing well now. It's truly amazing how mad some people get when other people get more even if they're unaffected.

I just looked up the story. At the rally, Price mostly talked about the babies that were being born to employees and how an employee was able to buy a new house in Washington state. His business increased as well, according to wiki.

Quote:
The company processed $3.4 billion in payments in 2014 and $10.2 billion in 2018
From reading the articles on what happened, some companies started to change their policies toward more income inequality, but some people were really upset that it was upsetting the status quo.

I can see why Price is supporting Yang and how their efforts have a common bond.

The Boston Globe has an updated New Hampshire front runner list. It's behind a paywall but the comment on the subreddit says that Yang is 8th on the list.

On the policy side, there's a recent study that shows that economic policies can reduce the number of suicide deaths. While this isn't exactly the same as the Freedom Dividend, it might apply equally since people getting more money seems to help.

Can Economic Policies Reduce Deaths of Despair?


Quote:
Our estimates suggest that increasing both the minimum wage and the EITC by 10 percent would likely prevent a combined total of around 1230 suicides each year.
On the fun side, yesterday, Yang was setting up the #maythe4th. . . be with you and Star Wars stuff. The icon on his website brandished a laser saber. The guy who created it told me that something even more cool was coming today. He didn't tell me what it was, so maybe it was this video of Yang with a Star Wars theme.

I really enjoyed Yang's recent newsletter where he writes a bit about the behind the scenes things that go on in a campaign and his feelings about them. He starts out by talking about the behaviors that are required to create a campaign, like going to TV studios, putting on make-up and saying positive things about the campaign. While those are necessary, there are other parts too.

Quote:
I’ve said in various forums that I don’t much care for the actual job of being a politician. It’s true. I think one of the reasons we despair for our future is that politicians traffic in certain behaviors and get rewarded for them. There is little need for deep thought or consideration. We lurch from press release to press release, from cable news appearance to cable news appearance, from speech to speech, with the constant buzz of our approval and popularity in the background. And money is tied to that approval. At first, I was horrified that how many social media follows I got was now a key deliverable. I was like, “I’m a grown man now evaluating myself like an eighth-grader.” (Eighth Grade was a good movie.)

But I adapted. Because I have a job to do.

We all do.

I will do what it takes to get this job done. We are off to a tremendous start thanks to all of you. We have the capacity to change the course of our country for the better. But I need your help.
He talked about how he's an introvert and how that makes it surprising that someone like him could be running for President.

Yang is in Detroit today doing another rally. He's joking about doing an 8-mile re-eanactment there.
  #434  
Old 05-08-2019, 11:08 PM
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Whoa. I tuned into a livestream rally several days ago on 5/5. I'm getting addicted to watching these rallies online live. I looked at the crowd and thought they were replaying an old video from LA or Seattle. It was a rally in Minneapolis, MN. I was expecting some people in a mall or something. The crowd size rivaled Seattle's crowd. The crowd enthusiasm matched or beat Seattle's enthusiasm. It wasn't until Yang mentioned Minneapolis that I realized I was watching the right crowd. Only 600 people RSVPed for this event. If Seattle's crowd was in the thousands, this must have been at least as big.

Where are these people coming from? The subReddit has 17K subscribers, twitter has 260K followers. I don't have Facebook, so maybe they're from there. But even his online presence wouldn't make me think that this amount of people would show up for his rallies.

When I see the numbers of people at these rallies, I'm reminded of how the campaign is growing all the time. Here's a collage of his rallies to date.

I'm also seeing some fun stories from people who have been to these rallies. It's really heartwarming to see people happy about something. Here's a guy from the Detroit rally taking a selfie with Yang. Met Yang at the Detroit Rally yesterday. Got to go on stage and everything!

Here's another story that goes with a picture. Thank you, Andrew, for giving me the opportunity to make the world a better place.

Quote:
At the end of our fundraising event, I walked Andrew to his car. I wanted to thank him for coming. Before I could, he put his arm around me and said, “Thanks, Bill, for hosting such a great event!”

I put my arm around him as well. I knew it was my opportunity to tell Andrew how much I appreciated him. These are the words that came out of my mouth, “Thank you for giving me an opportunity to make the world a better place. As a kindergarten teacher, I get to wear a cape to work. I know that I am making a difference in my school and my community. Now, I get to make an impact on our country and possibly the world.”

It was one of those moments when your words give you goosebumps as you talk; a moment when your voice starts to crackle a little as your heart expands into your throat. I was able to compose myself.

I finished with, “We are all behind you 100%!”

I got a “Thanks, Bill!” One of those sincere thank you‘s that only Andrew and authentic people can offer.

This past Thursday was a very important moment in my life. Thank you, Andrew. Thank you.
And another one with a guy wearing a t-shirt that says, "Born before the internet" with a picture of a dinosaur on it.

Quote:
Just met @AndrewYang here in Seattle. He was spectacular. I even got my hat signed.
Nice article in the Washington Post. The Technology 202: Andrew Yang says Uber, Lyft protests show why it's urgent Democrats debate future of work. It's in response to the Uber/Lyft protests.

Quote:
“We need to stop living in a fantasy land where we think these companies are supposed to treat us like family members and employ us for years,” Yang said in an interview. “Their incentives are in the opposite direction.”
. . .
Sarah Ford, a spokeswoman for his campaign, told me in a statement. “Bernie understands when the United States has strong protections for unions, we have a strong middle class.”

But Yang warned that giving drivers collective bargaining rights would only be “one piece of the puzzle.” He said unions have weakened over the past 50 years, and that alone would not solve the drivers' problems.
. . .
“It's very hard to turn back the clock,” Yang told me in an interview. “We have to stop pretending it's the 1960s.”
Considering that Jeff Bezos owns The Washington Post and runs Amazon, the company Yang continually talks about in his stump speech, the idea that The Washington Post would write a positive piece on Yang might be considered strange. But the rally in Seattle showed that a lot of people from Amazon back Yang. It's been written that Amazon employees know they're working to find ways to work themselves out of a job. Maybe the people at The Washington Post are in the same camp.

An entire piece of Stephen Colbert mocking Yang's campaign. Doin' It Donkey Style: Andrew Yang

Another trucker for Yang. "I'm a Staunch Republican... I'm Willing to Give Him a Shot" | Andrew Yang for President

Brett Baier on Fox News did an interview with Yang. It was a nice interview. It gave a chance to answer to the Colbert piece about the Powerpoint! chant. Yang's rallies have turned into interactive participation. When Yang talks about changing the measurements on which success will be built and measured, the crowd chants Powerpoint. It gives a sense that people who show up to those rallies know what the campaign is about before they show up.

Another Yang newsletter. This one's cute. It has a picture of Yang and his campaign manager sharing a meal out of a styrofoam container in the front seat of a car. He analogizes his campaign team to a family. His campaign manager is the dad. Even though Yang is a dad, CEO and head of the campaign, within that structure, he considers himself to be playing the role of the baby.

Quote:
So then I said, “Wait a minute. If Zach is the Dad of this family, what am I?”

And then it dawned on me—I’m the baby.

I realized a bunch of things very quickly:

People are taking care of me all of the time.
Staffers have my favorite foods around.
If I get in a bad mood, everyone around me suffers.
My schedule determines everyone else’s.
Others are grooming me, sometimes several times a day.

The parallels were eerie. Zach is the patient Dad. Carly, the energetic sister. Luke is the quiet son. And I am the kid around which the world revolves.
Yang will be in New Hampshire through the weekend with multiple events there. Then they're hoping for a large rally in New York next week.
  #435  
Old 05-08-2019, 11:28 PM
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... When I see the numbers of people at these rallies, I'm reminded of how the campaign is growing all the time. ...
Yeah! The latest polling has him surging to 1%!!!
  #436  
Old 05-10-2019, 06:23 PM
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Yang has been in New Hampshire, doing a lot of smaller venues.

He's had some good press in the last couple days.

This Washington Post article is a nice (and positive) summary of his campaign. Who is that guy? Andrew Yang’s presidential campaign draws crowds, money and an expected spot on the Democratic debate stage.

Quote:
Yang is barely a blip in most national polls, where his support ranks between 1 and 3 percent.

But Yang has become something of a below-the-radar phenomenon in the crowded field of candidates vying for the Democratic presidential nomination. Some candidates far better known than him have been struggling to catch fire on social media and are playing to smaller audiences; Yang has been packing in some of the largest crowds in the race — an estimated 3,000 in San Francisco; 2,000 in Los Angeles; and 2,500 in Seattle, where he paused the rally to point out a pair of bald eagles soaring overhead.
. . .
Yang hasn’t yet assembled a traditional political infrastructure. His staff, mostly people in their 20s and early 30s who are new to politics, numbers fewer than a dozen. But his online army of support has elevated his profile immeasurably.
. . .
Indeed, Yang’s crowds are notable for their diversity. Darrin Lowery, a 51-year-old social worker from Chicago, turned out after hearing Yang make his pitch to black voters on “The Breakfast Club” radio show.
. . .
Andy Stern, a former president of the Service Employees International Union who is friendly with Yang, cautioned that Yang needs “a breakout moment.”

“I don’t think people are looking at Andrew yet and say he’s someone who can win,” said Stern, who, like Yang, is an evangelist for a universal basic income.
This article is really positive. Yang's crowds are diverse in a lot of ways, but not so much in others. The political diversity seems high. Just judging by how people look, the income levels look represented. But race and gender diversity aren't ideal. . . yet. But it's nice to see a positive article. And importantly, the article is from Iowa. Hopefully, that helps in Iowa.

The actual rally numbers from Yang's campaign manager:

Quote:
Official Humanity First Tour crowd counts:

Austin: 700
San Francisco: 3,000
Chicago: 1,000
Boston: 800
Atlanta: 1,500
Los Angeles: 3,000
Las Vegas: 500
Des Moines: 300
Seattle: 4,000
Detroit: 650
Minneapolis: 1,000
Some comments from Nate Silver:

Quote:
Andrew Yang: A blend of Liberal Policy Wonk — although not all his policies are super liberal — and Outsider.
. . .
And maybe Yang is sui generis enough to belong in his own category.
The news in New Hampshire is reporting that his events in NH are moving the needle some. Yang presidential campaign starts to register in NH polls

Another great interview with Tucker Carlson. Yang: Amazon needs to pay their fair share Tucker was positive and promoted Yang's ideas. The comment section of the video was mostly positive.

I have to admit that I was dismayed by how dismissive Colbert was toward Yang in the monologue a couple nights ago. People are saying that all publicity is good, so it's all good. But it wasn't just that he was joking, it was that his jokes missed the point. Happily, Yang's PR mgr. just announced Yang is now booked on Colbert right before the debates. At least he'll have a quick chance to make his case.

The YangGang is trying very hard to get Andrew on The Hot Ones. They were trying to get the producers' attention when they were doing a live AMA on reddit the other day.

I was listening to this interview on New Hampshire Public Radio and thinking about how people calling in seem to think they're the first person to think of a question that's been asked dozens, maybe hundreds of times before. It's sort of like watching a long-running TV show and someone asking a question about it you're heard so many times before like they're the first to think of it. I admire Yang's ability to patiently explain the same thing for the umpteenth time with enough respect for the person like it was the first.

Street art of Yang in Washington, DC.

Just randomly, I was looking at the funding of the 2020 candidates on opensecrets. Just noticed that the candidates who don't have outside money are also not getting much media. Could be a cause or an effect. The correlation isn't 100%.
  #437  
Old 05-14-2019, 01:30 AM
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There was some good press from this weekend's New Hampshire meetings. Yang was joined by Steve Marchand, who is an ex-mayor of a city in New Hampshire and Yang's senior advisor. From Steve Marchand's twitter:

Quote:
.⁦@AndrewYang⁩ is “starting to catch lightning in a bottle”, according to the Concord Monitor - everywhere we went, I heard the same thing: “Now I get why you like him so much.” The #YangGang is growing quickly across N.H.! #nhpolitics
From the article he's referencing:

Quote:
Yang, once the longest of long-shots for the nomination, has been generating some buzz over the past month.
. . .
While Yang is just starting to capture some lightning in a bottle,
Another nice article from New Hampshire: Decoding the Vibe: Make America What Again, Andrew Yang?

Quote:
Make America Think Again. His vibe is hopeful, prepared and potentially amazing. I may have to get that hat and join the Yang Gang.
In the meantime, there are some interesting one-off positive comments. Adam Corolla talked about Yang in his podcast very favorably. It starts at 10:41 on part 2 of the 5/13/19 podcast. Corolla liked the VAT idea that he saw on Tucker Carlson.

On Bill Maher, Matt Lewis mentioned Yang. Maher was asking Lewis who he planned to vote for. Lewis said that he wouldn't vote for Trump or Biden. He mentioned Yang but then noted he could decide not to vote and still complain about the outcome. Maher mentioned that Yang was on the schedule in June for his show.

The Washington Post also had a podcast about Yang's campaign from a reporter who has been following him. Starts on minute 8. She was talking about the Chicago rally, which was a couple months ago where there were a bunch of people jammed into a crowded space. She noted the diversity of the crowd and how enthused they were.

There's a piece in Time magazine: How Andrew Yang's Online Following Has Turned Into a Real-Life Coalition

Quote:
The upstart campaign has won Yang a fervent following on Twitter and Reddit. But it’s also translating into real life. Yang is drawing some surprisingly large crowds. In polls, he often runs even with or ahead of other better-known and more experienced Democratic candidates. He’s managed to qualify for the first Democratic debate next month on the strength of that and his fundraising. Yang likes to tout political analyst Nate Silver’s proclamation that he’s no more “of a long shot than several other candidates.”
Then a quirky piece written by a college student. It was still interesting, I thought. The Catholic Case for Andrew Yang

Quote:
Andrew Yang’s seemingly outlandish ideas might strike observers as unattainable and material for memes. However, what matters more than their practicality, considering that Yang is polling at an average of 1.3%, is the fact that policies furthering Catholic values will get a mention in the Democratic primary.
. . .
What remains to be seen, however, is whether Democratic Catholics will listen, and whether Yang’s presence will force other candidates to consider their appeals to human dignity, the common good, solidarity, and subsidiarity.
The Yang Gang is planning a service day over Memorial day weekend.

Yang is speaking at the Blockchain Week NYC and CoinDesk’s Consensus 2019 event

Quote:
Meanwhile, the bitcoin and cryptocurrency industry is gearing up for one of the biggest events in the cryptocurrency calendar starting today—Blockchain Week NYC and CoinDesk’s Consensus 2019 event, running all week out of the New York Hilton Midtown.

This year headline speakers include FedEx’s Fred Smith, Fidelity’s Abigail Johnson, Twitter and Square’s Jack Dorsey, chairman of the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission, Jay Clayton, and U.S. presidential hopeful, Andrew Yang.
The big event this week is a rally planned in NYC. Then he heads to South Carolina. From Yang's twitter:

Quote:
Heading to South Carolina for the first time this week and already in the polls!
Yang is polling at 2% in South Carolina.
  #438  
Old 05-17-2019, 09:41 PM
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On the technology front.

A company in Sweden just released a self-driving truck on a short stretch of public road. The company plans to apply for permits for larger stretches next year.

Quote:
The self-driving truck uses a Nvidia Drive platform to process visual data, which allows it to function at level four autonomy — the second highest category — while an operator located miles away can control up to 10 vehicles at a time.

Currently, the T-Pod can make short trips between a warehouse and a terminal on a public road in an industrial area in Jonkoping.
InsideHook

Quote:
The route it takes from a warehouse to a freight terminal building is just 300 meters long, but it includes five right-angle turns and a 100-meter stretch of road used by other trucks and vehicles.
. .
The truck can reach speeds of up to 85 kilometers per hour (53 miles per hour), but is only allowed to drive at 5 kilometers per hour (3 miles per hour) during the trial. The speed limit was set by the Swedish Transport Agency.
CNN

A Joe Rogan sound-alike.

Quote:
On Wednesday, Canada-based startup Dessa unveiled a new AI that replicates the voice of Joe Rogan, a podcaster known for his bold views
. . .
However, the company is well aware of the potential dangers of such a system. They even provide a bullet-pointed list of all the ways it could go wrong, noting that someone could impersonate a government official to enter a high-security facility or a politician to manipulate an election.

These potentially nefarious uses are why Dessa says it won’t publicly release its research, model, or datasets for the project.
Yang's tweet:

Quote:
Deepfakes are coming

On the social media front.


The Yang Gang have a new offfical tumblr for the more fun stuff of the campaign, as well as graphics heavy stuff. Sounds fun. I've already seen a graphic of useful stats I like.

A Yang article made the front page of r/politics on Reddit. It got roughly 2K comments and over 9K upvotes. Andrew Yang wants to tax Amazon and Google like oil so every American can get $1,000 a month — no questions asked

On the regular media front.

Yang was on Fox News, this time with Martha MacCallum. She gave Bernie a hard time in the town hall. But when she couldn't get Yang riled, she asked if he was too nice to beat Trump.

Reuters had a pretty nice article on Yang.

Yang did a presentation at a bitcoin event. 5 articles on Yang from the crypto world.

CNN put up a photo profile of Yang. Baby Yang!

One of Yang's policies is Democracy Dollars where each citizen would be given $100 to be used to support a candidate for that year only. Seattle is now using a similar method that is gaining some interest. One guy collecting those dollars from the people is overtaking corporate lobbyist money.

Amy Walter (NPR) interviewed Yang on a podcast.

With each passing week, it becomes more evident that the right-wing media is more civil to Yang than the left. Maybe it's just my bias, but the left-wing media questions exasperate me more than the right. It's not just the questions. Those are the same ones without fail. It's the framing, the tone and the lack of imagination.

The most significant media event of the week. He made it to the NYT crossword puzzle!

Quote:
.⁦@AndrewYang
⁩ has not only qualified for the debate stage...

...he’s also made it to the NYT mini crossword puzzle.
On the campaign front.

The NYC rally didn't go as planned. It was planned for weeks, but the day of the rally, it was pouring freezing rain. Still ~2500-3000 people showed up in the freezing rain. It wasn't the turnout they were hoping for, but considering the circumstances, still a pretty good showing. This is from Yang's newsletter about the event. (He writes all his own newsletters.)

Quote:
On Tuesday night, we held our long-anticipated outdoor rally in Washington Square Park in New York. Our team had been planning this event for weeks in advance. We were working around the clock to make it a success. Then, we woke up Tuesday morning to find it was going to rain.

We became worried that nobody would show up—but instead, when I arrived at the rally site, there were nearly 3,000 supporters gathered in the pouring rain.

At that moment, I realized we never should have doubted. The Yang Gang is energized and ready to win this election. A little rain won’t stop us.

In fact, the rain had an upside: it shocked the reporters who were covering the rally in the media tent in the back.

One reporter even told my staff that he could not believe our massive turnout. His exact words?

“None of this makes any sense!”
I wrote to one guy who posted about the rally on the sub. I told him it was great that he showed up in the rain. He was so pumped up about the rally that he didn't seem to care about the rain.

There's a picture of a sea of umbrellas as the rain poured on the crowd.

I love this video of drone footage of the Seattle rally a few weeks ago. It's really well done, shows the size of the crowd and just feels cinematic. The backdrop is beautiful.

Yang is in South Carolina this weekend. There are several hundred people signed up for his events this weekend.
  #439  
Old 05-23-2019, 08:17 PM
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The headlines on a bunch of articles for the last several days seem to be tailor made for Yang's campaign. Maybe people are looking for them more now, but these are very timely.

In Middle of Trade War, America’s Busiest Port Gets Ready for Robots
A Los Angeles shipping terminal is planning to replace diesel trucks and human workers. May 20, 2019

A.I. Took a Test to Detect Lung Cancer. It Got an A. May 20, 2019

Self-driving trucks begin mail delivery test for U.S. Postal Service
May 21, 2019

Yang is moving up in the rankings on several lists.

Yang made it to the top 10 in Business Insider. He moved up from 15th in the last update.

Yang made it to the top 10 in the CNN ranking.

He maintained his number 9 spot in Rolling Stone. This is a live and rolling site, so this is #9 as I'm writing this, but may change.

People are talking about the Freedom Dividend more. Someone is trying to create a UBI calculator that would easily calculate the effects of UBI on the individual or on the society on the whole. He's trying to crowdfund it. It's not getting much traction in the sub, and I'm not bought into how it would help.

I recently saw a debate between Yang and a Harvard economics professor on UBI. It was from back in January 2019. It was a bit disappointing. It was a libertarian conference so that was the angle. It wasn't that helpful for the rest of it. The professor seemed to feel that UBI was fine if it replaced all the entitlements and the VAT was fine if it replaces income taxes. But that was really tangential to Yang's policy since those ideas aren't part of Yang's policy. For the rest, the arguments were the common ones given all the time.

There was a nice article on the VAT. She doesn't mention Yang in the article, but she also doesn't mention why she's writing the article at this time.

Quote:
The Value Added Tax is an unsung hero in reducing global poverty. A VAT is "self-enforcing", so it enables countries where tax collection is challenging to raise money for roads, schools, health clinics, etc.
She does mention the regressive nature, but these two notes touch on that. And even those two make the assumption of a broad based VAT with 100% pass through which might not be the case in Yang's proposal.

There's some very preliminary feedback from the Stockton UBI trial. Stockton woman says guaranteed income program has been life-changing

Quote:
“I used to stress. Even though I’d pay my bills and rent, I would have to think about the next month and stress if I had the money,” said Paradela.

“I can breathe better. I can breathe,” Paradela added.

The guaranteed income program was introduced to Stockton by Mayor Michael Tubbs. He says he was searching for ways to alleviate poverty and received $3 million of private donations for the program.

“People are on edge, not because they are making bad economic choices, but because the current economic system is not working for the working poor,” said Tubbs.
She plans to save up for a car and go to college later.

A little better press coverage lately.

What If Presidential Hopeful Andrew Yang Is Right? Op-ed in Forbes

Is Andrew Yang for Real?
Politico The author tweets

Quote:
Come for the dissection of Andrew Yang’s rise. Stay for the annecdote on how I, a legit germaphobe, borrowed his ear bulb in an Iowa BBQ restaurant. (He has a way of making off-the-wall solutions sound perfectly reasonable!)
Yang and staff helped her get her ear unplugged from the plane ride.

Nerdiest Presidential Campaign in History NYT

WSJ The Future of Everything Festival video

The South Carolina meeting looked like they went well. Yang met with the mayor of Columbia, SC there and Congressman Jim Clyburn stopped by one of his meetings.

Zach, his campaign manager posted a picture of a packed small bar with the caption -

Quote:
A local Dem party leader told me - “I came to this event expecting 7 people to show up.” Welcome to the most surprising story of the 2020 election. @AndrewYang coming out of nowhere to upend the field. Packed house in Charleston tonight
Some fun stuff. A Yang Ganger who is not in the US wanted to find a way to help publicize Yang, so he creatred a video game. The screen shots of the video game are interesting, but his story of how he became a Yang Ganger is more interesting to me.

Another Yang Ganger created an app. and has a huge ad on a building to advertise it.

Alexis Ohanian, a co-founder of Reddit, retweeted a Yang article on vocational schools. I don't know what it means but thought it was interesting that he's reading an article on Yang.

TYT sent out someone from RebelHQ to ask Yang 31 questions while he was on his way to the NYC rally.

Q: When do you laugh the most?
Yang: Unfortunately, watching mainstream news.

Who needs polls when you can judge interest by the honking cars?

Quote:
The #YangGang in Charleston is looking good! We are at 3% in South Carolina and based on cars honking at me on the street rising fast. 😀👍🇺🇸 Let’s spread the word and win SC!
Yang and the mayor of Columbia, SC decide if they're gong to run up the building steps Rocky-style. Nope. (Yang often jokes that there's nothing to make someone feel young like running for President, considering the other contenders. But apparently in this case, not that young.)
  #440  
Old 05-24-2019, 07:17 AM
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The basic problem Yang's campaign has now is that it's becoming an historically over-crowded field of candidates. If the debate commission had anticipated this number of candidates, they might have raised the requirements to polling at 2-5%.
  #441  
Old 05-24-2019, 11:04 AM
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I'd paid very little attention to any Yang details, so thank you, Heffalump and Roo for the summary.

No major new tax, except a regressive VAT tax?? He doesn't even plan to restore income taxes on the rich to Clinton-era levels??? Cancel my subscription!

And yes, it's hard to approve of a one-size-fits-all UBI where a disabled person gets no more than a healthy person. And a 17-year old handicapped person gets zero.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Heffalump and Roo View Post
Here's some calculations someone did about the Freedom Dividend on Reddit:

Without the reduction for benefits that are already being paid, there would need to be an additional roughly $1.4T that would need to be accounted for.

But let's say that were possible. The bank bailout was supposed to have been $4T and that somehow got funded. Maybe funds could be moved from something else.
A big dent in the $1.4T could come from corporate tax, capital gains taxes, estate taxes, etc.

As for $4T — that ain't chickenfeed. Net spending by the Feds during the crisis was much less than that; and much of the "spending" was tax cuts.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

On a separate matter, sales and VAT taxes impact consumers and retailers and manufacturers. Because of demand elasticity, vendors will have to cut their profit margins and/or suffer reduced volumes.
  #442  
Old 05-24-2019, 06:42 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
The basic problem Yang's campaign has now is that it's becoming an historically over-crowded field of candidates. If the debate commission had anticipated this number of candidates, they might have raised the requirements to polling at 2-5%.
The crowded field is actually in Yang's favor. If the list were smaller, he might have been cut off. At this point, in order to cut him off, they'd have to cut out a lot of people.

While I knew about the debate qualification rules, I just found out that there are 169 declared Democratic candidates according to filings with the FEC. Only 20 of those people will hit the debate stage.

The DNC already set the rules for qualifying to the debates. Either poll 1% in 3 qualifying polls or get 65K donors from 20 or more states.

Quote:
There are two paths to qualifying for the debate stage: breaking 1 percent in three polls from pollsters approved by the Democratic National Committee, or tallying 65,000 unique campaign donors, with at least 200 donors in 20 different states.
Yang has met both qualifications. The cut off is 20 people. So far, only 19 people qualified. Of those, only 13 people qualified on both qualifications. Yang was one of those 13.

Quote:
According to a POLITICO analysis, 19 candidates have qualified for the first debates on June 26-27 in Miami. . .
Thirteen of those candidates — Biden, Booker, Buttigieg, Castro, Gabbard, Harris, Inslee, Klobuchar, O’Rourke, Sanders, Warren, Williamson and Yang — have crossed both thresholds, virtually guaranteeing them a spot in one of the two nights.
The DNC just instituted a 2% rule where those people polling over 2% will be randomly split between the first and second night and people polling under 2% will be randomly split between the first and second night with 10 participants each on 2 nights.

They're trying to avoid the "kiddie table" format of past debates. On each night, there will be someone polling higher and someone polling lower.

Quote:
“Here’s the bottom line: The DNC doesn’t want a 'kids table.' That’s what they fear,” NBC News political director Chuck Todd said on “The Tony Kornheiser Show,” before the new formula was announced. “The goal is to make sure two nights [both have top-tier candidates], so it isn’t like all the big candidates on one night and all the 1 percenters on one night.”
  #443  
Old 05-24-2019, 09:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by septimus View Post
I'd paid very little attention to any Yang details, so thank you, Heffalump and Roo for the summary.
Glad it helped.

Quote:
Originally Posted by septimus View Post
No major new tax, except a regressive VAT tax?? He doesn't even plan to restore income taxes on the rich to Clinton-era levels??? Cancel my subscription!
There are 3 new taxes, in addition to the VAT, funding the UBI in that analysis you quoted.

Carbon Fee
- $100B
Financial Transaction Tax - $50 billion
Capital gain/Carried interest loophole - $18 billion

Quote:
Originally Posted by septimus View Post
And yes, it's hard to approve of a one-size-fits-all UBI where a disabled person gets no more than a healthy person. And a 17-year old handicapped person gets zero.
Because the Freedom Divident (UBI) is opt-in, depending on what the disabled person is already getting in benefits, that disabled person might get more than a healthy person. If the disabled person is currently receiving more than $1,000/mo in benefits, the disabled person would opt-out to continue receiving the benefits they have now.

Minors are not given a Freedom Dividend because the money would legally go to a parent who might not give it to them. The 17 year old would get the $1,000/mo when they turn 18. A 17 year-old disabled person might be getting disability benefits which wouldn't change.

Quote:
Originally Posted by septimus View Post
A big dent in the $1.4T could come from corporate tax, capital gains taxes, estate taxes, etc.
Capital gains taxes are already included in the analysis.

The reason for choosing a VAT is to get around the fact that many of the biggest corporations in the country don't pay corporate taxes. Raising corporate taxes on corporations claiming zero income would yield the same zero taxes. Companies like Amazon, NetFlix, GM and others, all paid zero income taxes.

How These Fortune 500 Companies (Legally) Paid $0 In Taxes Last Year

Quote:
The total U.S. income of the 60—which ITEP reports included such names as Amazon, Chevron, General Motors, Delta, Halliburton, and IBM—was more than $79 billion and the effective tax rate was -5%. On the average, they got tax refunds.
Also, any tax that corporations did pay through an increase in corporate tax would likely be passed through to the consumer at the same rate as a VAT which would make the corporate tax regressive to the consumer.

Based on a study that aggregated pass-through rates on VATs, the average pass-through rate was 55% for increasing VATs.

Quote:
Originally Posted by septimus View Post
On a separate matter, sales and VAT taxes impact consumers and retailers and manufacturers. Because of demand elasticity, vendors will have to cut their profit margins and/or suffer reduced volumes.
Wouldn't the same be true of an increase in corporate taxes as well?
  #444  
Old 05-28-2019, 01:15 AM
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On his last TV interview on Fox News with Laura Ingraham, Yang was losing his voice badly, so I hope he's having a relaxing Memorial Day holiday.

He wrote a personal note for Memorial Day. On This Memorial Day.

The Yang Gangers did community service on Memorial Day. A couple groups took some pictures of their groups. One from Durham. One in DC.

TIL (thing I learned) from reading the sub - corporations are not required to maximize profits. The main reason they do is because of CEO compensation incentives and activist hedge fund managers.

Quote:
There is a common belief that corporate directors have a legal duty to maximize corporate profits and “shareholder value” — even if this means skirting ethical rules, damaging the environment or harming employees. But this belief is utterly false. To quote the U.S. Supreme Court opinion in the recent Hobby Lobby case: “Modern corporate law does not require for-profit corporations to pursue profit at the expense of everything else, and many do not.”. . .
In other words, it is activist hedge funds and modern executive compensation practices — not corporate law — that drive so many of today’s public companies to myopically focus on short-term earnings; cut back on investment and innovation; mistreat their employees, customers and communities; and indulge in reckless, irresponsible and environmentally destructive behaviors.
Kai-Fu Lee, a tech executive who worked at Microsoft, Google, SGI and Apple, tweeted. (Lee has a new book out about AI.)

Quote:
Data is the new oxygen if you want to survive the wealth inequality multiplier, and data is the new oil if you want to add fuel to your economy.
then in response to this from a Yang Ganger:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Joseph Kenny
Are you familiar with the platform of US Presidential candidate @AndrewYang? It seems to echo your sentiments:
Kai-Fu Lee replied:

Quote:
Yes I am. I agree with his observations.
Next week, Yang is scheduled to be on Preet Bharara's podcast (5/30) and on NPR (5/28).
  #445  
Old 05-28-2019, 09:18 AM
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Who in the bloody hell thought there was a law that corporations had to maximize profit?
  #446  
Old 05-28-2019, 06:45 PM
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Originally Posted by CarnalK View Post
Who in the bloody hell thought there was a law that corporations had to maximize profit?
lol

Anyone who took existing case law and applied the ebay standard instead of the Hobby Lobby standard.

I did a quick Google search.

A Duty to Shareholder Value


Quote:
The leading statement of the law's view on corporate social responsibility goes back to Dodge v. Ford Motor Co, a 1919 decision that held that "a business corporation is organized and carried on primarily for the profit of the stockholders." . . .
Despite contrary claims by some academics and Occupy Wall Street-type partisans, this remains the law today. A 2010 decision, for example, eBay Domestic Holdings Inc. v. Newmark, held that corporate directors are bound by "fiduciary duties and standards" which include "acting to promote the value of the corporation for the benefit of its stockholders."

eBay v. Newmark: Al Franken Was Right, Corporations Are Legally Required To Maximize Profits


Quote:
But what I think should be the law — and what a couple politically-biased professors claim is the law — isn’t necessarily the law. Under eBay v. Newman, the law is as Franken said: “it is literally malfeasance for a corporation not to do everything it legally can to maximize its profits.” Just ask Jim and Craig; no one disputes it’s their company, but they’re legally prohibited from taking steps to preserve the profit-alongside-community-service mission that’s served them well. Maximize profits, or else.

The impact of this duty-to-maximize-profits stretches far beyond mere investments. Under Citizens United, corporations now have the First Amendment right to influence our fragile democracy however they want, since they’re “people,” just like you and me, albeit profit-maximizing zombies who care not for truth, justice, or the American way.
  #447  
Old 05-28-2019, 09:00 PM
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IANAL but "maximize shareholder value" is not necessarily the same as "maximizing profits". In the most simple case there is R&D that diminishes the net profit line but long term may increase shareholder value. Is there case law that define what counts as shareholder value? It cannot be as simplistic as short term stock fluctuations or the years final profit loss line.
  #448  
Old 05-28-2019, 09:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Heffalump and Roo View Post
lol

Anyone who took existing case law and applied the ebay standard instead of the Hobby Lobby standard.

I did a quick Google search.

A Duty to Shareholder Value




eBay v. Newmark: Al Franken Was Right, Corporations Are Legally Required To Maximize Profits
So up until reading Yang's interview, what crimina/civill penalties did you think a CEO could face for not maximizing profits?
  #449  
Old 06-06-2019, 03:10 AM
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Some headlines.

New Zealand is the first western country to build its budget around well-being. Yang's human-centered capitalism shares some of the same goals, but of course specific to the US. Although Yang's policies don't call for a budget item, the idea is that the things people measure are the directions people move, so some of these measures will be highlighted as goals.

Quote:
New Zealand has become the first Western country to design its budget around well-being over economic growth
Vox quoting AP

Quote:
Future government spending proposals must meet five priorities: improving mental health, reducing child poverty, “addressing the inequalities faced by indigenous Maori and Pacific islands people, thriving in a digital age, and transitioning to a low-emission, sustainable economy.”
Vox summarizing NYT

One of the goals would be changing the downward slide of lifespan in the US. Some of those statistics are depressing.

Someone on Reddit did a macro to show how the age range of males committing suicide has changed from just the very old to people across the age spectrum from from 2005-2015.

All-American Despair

For the past two decades, a suicide epidemic fueled by guns, poverty and isolation has swept across the West, with middle-aged men dying in record numbers

From a guy in that article:

Quote:
I could go on about the policy steps that must be taken to solve this social crisis. I could also tell you that the suicide rate could drop severely with a federal suicide-awareness program that would cost less than Trump’s Mar-a-Lago trips. We could talk about how a sensible gun program and better mental-health care could be paid for with the dollars the Pentagon has wasted on the troubled F-35 fighter.

That’s all true, but that’s not how I want to end this, because that is not how a man on his last string thinks about it.
Nice tweet from Stephen Pinker:

Quote:
The first presidential candidate who is versed in behavioral genetics.
Funny tweet from Yang: (he was on Vice News on HBO)

Quote:
Wow that feeling when you turn on @HBO and you see your own face right above Game of Thrones 😀👍
Top 10 lists.

Yang made it to the top 10 list of The Hill. He moved up to #9 in Business Insider. Still #9 in Rolling Stone and 10 on CNN ranking.

Media

Time video on Yang On The Trail With Andrew Yang | TIME

Preet Bharara interview with Yang

Quote:
I spoke to presidential candidate @AndrewYang about whether America was ready for an Asian-American president on this week's Stay Tuned. The man has a sense of humor.
A solution for childhood obesity? Universal basic income

Rep. James Clyburn says that Yang has some innovative ideas and that he wouldn't be surprised to see some of the other candidates take on his ideas. "And that's good!"

Perhaps it's a coincidence and the ideas are floating around, but I saw Elizabeth Warren's plan on increasing apprenticeships based on the German model, and it reminded me of what Yang's been saying all along about increasing job training. He gives the stat that about ~5-6% of education in the US is based on the apprenticeship model whereas it's ~56% in Germany.

Yang's stance on higher education is that although he's favorable to higher education (he's Asian, after all, he jokes), the statistics on higher education is that the percent of college graduates has been in the low to mid 30% for a while. 52.9% of students who enrolled in 2009 finished college within 6 years. The underemployment rate of recent college graduates is 44%.

Taken together, that means that a lot of students who are steered toward college won't finish and of those who do, many of them won't need a college degree to do their job. They will also have accumulated an average of $38K in debt to do it. Yang is for a loan forgiveness deal for students. He also proposes that in order for schools to get federal funds, they have to reduce their administrative personnel percentages.

Yang has been pushing for more apprenticeship programs and job training programs that would get people jobs. His view is in line with this article: What Education Can and Can't Do for Economic Inequality

Quote:
Greater availability of apprenticeships or job-training programs could also help enhance labor market outcomes for those who find themselves on the lower rungs of the skills and wage scale. Kearney cautions that looking at education in limited terms can be problematic when it comes to implementing solutions that really work. “We didn't want to cede the view that when people say we need more education that necessarily means a four-year bachelor's degree,” she says.
It's good to see Elizabeth Warren pushing for the same thing. Perhaps she'll pick up or coincidentally have some of Yang's other ideas. Yang speaks of her highly often.

Yang is scheduled to be on The Young Turks on Thursday 6/6/19 and on The Bill Maher show on Friday 6/7/19.
  #450  
Old 06-12-2019, 07:32 PM
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The Bill Maher interview and Overtime went great, IMO. Donations are up, twitter responses from people who saw the show are up, and there seems to be more social media buzz.

Over the weekend, Cenk Uygur from The Young Turks held a rally to publicize a pledge that he was holding progressive candidates to sign. Yang didn't sign it but had a nice interview with Cenk about it. A reporter snapped a picture of Cory Booker and Cenk Uygur looking interested in something Yang was saying.

Yang's book is the best seller in Labor and Industrial Relations on Amazon. The War on Normal People: The Truth About America's Disappearing Jobs and Why Universal Basic Income Is Our Future. Something I learned from the review was that Yang was an editor of his law review at Columbia Law School.

Yang was at a convention in Iowa with the other candidates. Vice.com did a ranking of the candidates based on the best song that the candidate played to walk out with. Yang won. Ranking the 2020 Democratic Candidates Based Only on Their Walk-Out Songs

Quote:
1. Andrew Yang - "Return of the Mack" by Mark Morrison

Here it is, everybody. The best of all possible walk-out songs. "Return of the Mack" still slaps, two decades later. It is timeless. It is perfect. It may someday be remembered as the pinnacle of Western civilization. But wait—that's not all Yang has going for him. Apparently, the guy also plays a version of Wu Tang's "Ain't Nuthing ta Fuck Wit" except with a verse about how everybody in America should get a grand a month or whatever:
Fair Media Watch called out MSNBC for excluding him on its candidate list. This has been happening for months with on-air personalities getting notified every time it happens. Real Clear Politics average of polling.

Quote:
According to @RealClearNews' average of polling, @AndrewYang is tied for 8th place in the Democratic race--yet he's not one of the 20 candidates included in @MSNBC's candidate graphic.
Chris Cillizza did a piece on Yang and his internet popularity. Inside the internet-fueled rise of Andrew Yang I don't agree with Cillizza on much, but I do agree with him that even if Yang goes no further, he's already accomplished a lot to get to this point.

Rashida Tlaib just introduced legislation to give a UBI-like subsidy of $3K to individuals and $6K for families that stacks on welfare and that cuts off at $50K/$100K of income. It's like UBI in that it's not a trapezoid type benefit that tapers to nothing the less income the person makes. Hopefully, the people who criticized Yang's policy of not stacking on welfare will join on Tlaib's legislation. Ali Velshi mentions Andrew Yang in his interview with Tlaib.

Yang made a comment in the Iowa convention about Biden's non-appearance, saying that Biden must not like to travel. Biden responded that he was busy with family obligations. His granddaughter was graduating, and it was his daughter's birthday. He noted that he (Biden) would skip his inauguration for that. Yang tweeted back that other candidates probably had family obligations that they missed as well. NBC did an article about it. There were a number of reporters tweeting about it. Washington Examiner article with the tweets.

A nice twitter shout-out from Howard Fineman, journalist and MSNBC news analyst:

Quote:
.@AndrewYang makes a clever point. Alaskans get payments from profits companies make on a publicly-owned asset: crude oil. Likewise, he argues, all of us should be paid from profits Facebook, Amazon, Google etc make by “extracting” a publicly-owned asset: personal information.
Another nice shout out in an article from Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather:

Quote:
2020 Presidential Candidates want to make housing more affordable, but only Andrew Yang has proposed a policy that would make it easier for Americans to move to metros that already have affordable housing
She also has tweeted about how UBI wouldn't cause inflation. It's nice to have a PhD economist speaking favorably on Yang's policies. I've seen a couple now posting favorably in tweets.

Another nice tweet from Marcellus Wiley:

Quote:
Just hanging with the next President of the United States, Andrew Yang! He has my full support and I hope you take the time to learn about the person and his policies at http://Yang2020.com He’s exactly the leader our country needs right now!
Yang just did a TYT interview. This is a bootleg copy, so it might disappear. Yang also did a Pod Save America interview set to release on Friday 6/12/19.

The campaign is focused on getting to the third round of debates. He needs 130K donors, of which he already has 118K. He also needs 2% or higher in 4 polls after June 28. This poll doesn't qualify, but he hit 2% in Nevada.
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