View Poll Results: What minimum odds it would take for you to bet real money that Trump wins reelection?
For every dollar you bet, you win $1 if Trump is reelected 16 32.00%
For every dollar you bet, you win $5 if Trump is reelected 16 32.00%
For every dollar you bet, you win $20 if Trump is reelected 2 4.00%
For every dollar you bet, you win $50 if Trump is reelected 2 4.00%
For every dollar you bet, you win $100 if Trump is reelected 3 6.00%
I would need odds even greater than $100 3 6.00%
Other answer 8 16.00%
Voters: 50. You may not vote on this poll

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  #51  
Old 10-24-2019, 05:24 PM
Wesley Clark is offline
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I didn't think it was possible for him to win the first time, I didn't think 63 million Americans would vote for someone that deranged, criminal, incompetent, mentally unbalanced, treasonous and corrupt.

But I underestimated America, and now he is president.

Having said that, I'd wager he only has a 1 in 5 or so chance of re-election. I believe his chances according to 538 in 2016 were 1 in 3. But he had a lot of advantages in 2016 he lacks in 2020.

1. It would've been a 3rd term for a democrat, and voters don't like one party in charge for 3 terms.
2. Hillary wasn't a very exciting candidate. She didn't motivate the base.
3. Trump ran as anti-establishment, now he is the establishment.
4. Trump has done a lot more crimes and they are much more public now.

So I'm hoping that'll peel off a few million votes.

But yeah, being an American is embarrassing and demoralizing. What was the question again?
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  #52  
Old 10-24-2019, 06:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by XT View Post
Feel free to bet (or not) as you will.
I wouldn't because i believe if the market says "about 40% chance" then "about 40% chance" is probably accurate. If I was stating I'd need 100-1 to bet on option A then I'd be looking to dispose of mega money if somebody was giving me 60% implied odds on not-A.
  #53  
Old 10-24-2019, 07:32 PM
RioRico is online now
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Originally Posted by Velocity View Post
I'm not sure why it needs such distinction (although you can start with such a thread if you want.) That would muddy things up unnecessarily. Winning is simple, 270 EVs. It doesn't exactly matter whether Trump gets the popular vote or not, any more than it matters if the Patriots hit 400 yards of offense in a Super Bowl that they win.
"Presidency, n. The greased pig in the field game of American politics." -A.Bierce

Are US presidential campaigns the same as US football seasons? Really? Or is every POTUS necessarily a pig?

Again, a presidential candidate can hit 270 EVs with only 28% of the popular vote. Those thinking that would be considered 'fair' are IMHO potential bridge purchasers.

My oft-asked question remains unanswered: How well has installing losers worked?
  #54  
Old 10-24-2019, 07:47 PM
iamthewalrus(:3= is offline
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Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
Again, a presidential candidate can hit 270 EVs with only 28% of the popular vote. Those thinking that would be considered 'fair' are IMHO potential bridge purchasers.
This is a silly point because no one's ever going to get exactly 50%+1 vote in states that have 270 votes and zero votes in other states. It would take an absurd statistical outlier for the difference to be more than a few percentage points.

It's like saying that you might die of asphyxiation if all the air molecules happen to go to the other side of the room. Mathematically impossible.

Quote:
My oft-asked question remains unanswered: How well has installing losers worked?
Well, it hasn't caused a civil war yet, and the Union persists, so I'd say it's worked out kinda ok. Looking at the list of Presidents who lost the popular vote, I don't know enough about the 3 early ones, but Bush won the popular vote in his next election, so he was arguably vindicated by the populace. Trump is a disaster, but he'd be a disaster even if he'd won the popular vote, so so what?
  #55  
Old 10-24-2019, 08:10 PM
Velocity is online now
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RioRico View Post
Again, a presidential candidate can hit 270 EVs with only 28% of the popular vote. Those thinking that would be considered 'fair' are IMHO potential bridge purchasers.
Technically, sure, but in practice, virtually impossible. This would be like a team winning a football game despite being outgained 500 yards to 100 in offense.

Once or if a presidential candidate loses the popular vote by 5% or more, victory is all but impossible.
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