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Old 03-14-2019, 07:42 AM
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And in goes Beto


https://www.npr.org/2019/03/14/67680...sident-in-2020

I figure this isn't a real surprise, though honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he hadn't and shot for something else. His profile is certainly high enough after his Senate run.

Still, what's his angle here? I have trouble imagining he can really get enough traction to win. Is he angling for a VP slot if he does well? Or another Texas spot? Can't be governor as that election was last year and he'd have to wait another four years. I guess Cornyn's up in 2020 but that doesn't work time-wise, either.
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Old 03-14-2019, 07:50 AM
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Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance View Post
https://www.npr.org/2019/03/14/67680...sident-in-2020

I figure this isn't a real surprise, though honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he hadn't and shot for something else. His profile is certainly high enough after his Senate run.

Still, what's his angle here? I have trouble imagining he can really get enough traction to win. Is he angling for a VP slot if he does well? Or another Texas spot? Can't be governor as that election was last year and he'd have to wait another four years. I guess Cornyn's up in 2020 but that doesn't work time-wise, either.
I'm a huge Beto fan and this news put a spring in my step this morning. As far as his angle, here's what Clare Malone from 538 thinks is his likely plan.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Clare Malone from 538
O’Rourke’s background also may endear him to Latino voters. He is a Spanish-speaker (with a Spanish nickname) who represented a heavily Latino district and who beat out a Latino incumbent to win his first term in Congress. O’Rourke performed well with Latino voters in Texas in 2018, winning 64 percent of their votes (while competing against a Latino Republican candidate), compared with Texas Democrats’ 2014 Senate nominee, who won only 47 percent.

O’Rourke’s national appeal to Democrats might be that he could push progressive boundaries and motivate a minority community without alienating independent white suburban voters. This “woke whiteness” factor — the idea that progressive white men in particular might be able to say and do things that minority candidates couldn’t get away with — certainly seems to be an implicit part of O’Rourke’s appeal.
Here's a link to the full article.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...ratic-primary/
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Old 03-14-2019, 07:58 AM
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Beto has a certain RFK kind of appeal. I'm excited he's in, though that doesn't necessarily mean I believe he's my favorite candidate. Time will tell.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:05 AM
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I'm not excited by this. We need a president who's got some years under their belt as a politician.

But I think he'd be a fine veep, assuming that the actual president survives four years.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:20 AM
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I think Beto can definitely win. His poll numbers start out high enough so if he has a good rollout and good debate performances and good money raising he can definitely win it. As for VP, not gonna happen unless a non-white is the nominee. There will be enormous pressure on a white nominee to select a PoC for VP. Beto either wins or he goes for governor in 2022.

To me, Beto's problem is similar to Gillibrand's. His voting record is the most conservative in the field. When I ask Beto supporters if he's a progressive or moderate, the answer i get is whatever they are, moderate or progressive, 100% of the time. When you start out being all things to all people, you can only go down from there. He's got an Obama team that is probably going to try to have him fake his way through it all and rely on personality. But with the progressives so demanding, it'll be impossible for him to avoid questions about his record. If he owns his record, he can transform himself from JFK/Obama to Bill Clinton, which is fine. If he disowns past votes, he'll quickly go in the Gillibrand bucket. And despite a lot of people being high on Gillibrand, no one seems fooled by her. No principles whatsoever. Beto must avoid that trap.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:31 AM
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I’m lukewarm at this point. I assume he’s angling for VP, as I don’t see a real path to the nomination right now. He’s stuck since I don’t think he can win a statewide election in Texas.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:53 AM
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I really don't care that he didn't beat Cruz. He came very close and for a Texas Democrat, that's something special. Is he the most conservative? Maybe. But voters don't care about issues, they vote on charisma. The 3 Democrats that have it are the 3 Bs- Biden, Beto, Bernie. I would prefer a ticket of Biden-Beto but if Beto winds up on top it's all good. Just don't give me a second incarnation of Hillary which is what I fear from a screechy-preachy Warren.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:55 AM
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To Warren's credit, she has two things Clinton does not: authenticity and only one stupid scandal that is not even close to disqualifying unless you really already hate her. And it's very unlikely there are other scandals waiting to pop up. Warren is clean as a sheet.
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Old 03-14-2019, 08:56 AM
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Out of all 783 declared Democratic candidates thus far Beto is definitely one of them now.

Last edited by TriPolar; 03-14-2019 at 08:56 AM.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:20 AM
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To Warren's credit, she has two things Clinton does not: authenticity and only one stupid scandal that is not even close to disqualifying unless you really already hate her. And it's very unlikely there are other scandals waiting to pop up. Warren is clean as a sheet.
I'm not a Hillary enthusiast but I don't think any of her "scandals" were genuine. There's a whole lot of people who when you ask why they didn't vote for her would say "duhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh, something something emails". Uranium One- phony scandal. It wasn't her deal and no uranium left the US. Benghazi- the only think I fault her for was setting up embassy and consulates prematurely in a still politically unstable country. Phony scandals all. Yes, Warren tried to exploit a minuscule amount of Native American heritage but really, who cares?

As for Warren, I may agree with her but damn I can't see her carrying the working class vote like Biden could.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:34 AM
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Some were phony scandals. Some were not. The Clintons have a long history of carefully avoiding outright illegality but seeing their obligations as extending no further than that. Most politicians manage to not get that close to the line, and what this field lacks in experience it makes up for in how careful they've been to not even come close to the appearance of shadiness. Even Biden and Sanders who have been in politics forever have managed to avoid serious scandal. Obama avoided it. IT's not actually that hard unless you're basically the Ric Flair of politics: doing all you can to flout the rules short of getting disqualified.

We can argue about this and derail this thread, or we can just acknowledge that Clinton had the appearance of shadiness and none of the current field are tarred with that, and Republicans' ability to do so will depend a lot on how much they have to work with. Which so far is pretty much nothing except "Pocahantas"

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Old 03-14-2019, 09:37 AM
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I think Beto can definitely win.
Based on what? He seems like a nice guy, but he lost to Ted Cruz, for God's sake. Sure, it was in Texas, but Cruz is loathsome and O'Rourke is still a loser.

I cannot see anything O'Rourke has that Kamala Harris doesn't have ten times more of.
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Last edited by RickJay; 03-14-2019 at 09:38 AM.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:40 AM
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Harris is a really bad candidate and I think you'll see that most clearly in the debates, although she's been showing flashes of not being ready for prime time for months. Beto is as yet unproven, but if he can handle the spotlight and knows his stuff, his favorables plus his current poll standing add up to having a pretty good shot.

If this is actually just a Biden vs. Sanders race, then we can forget about all the younger candidates, but if it's not, if the voters are open to alternatives and don't really want the old white guys, then Harris, Booker, and Beto are all quite viable.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:43 AM
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Harris is by far the best candidate, and she'll do great in the debates. The gap will close, though some people just will refuse to vote for a black woman.
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Old 03-14-2019, 09:44 AM
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Originally Posted by Jonathan Chance View Post
https://www.npr.org/2019/03/14/67680...sident-in-2020

I figure this isn't a real surprise, though honestly I wouldn't be surprised if he hadn't and shot for something else. His profile is certainly high enough after his Senate run.

Still, what's his angle here? I have trouble imagining he can really get enough traction to win. Is he angling for a VP slot if he does well? Or another Texas spot? Can't be governor as that election was last year and he'd have to wait another four years. I guess Cornyn's up in 2020 but that doesn't work time-wise, either.
Having no chance at the Presidency, Beto's true message is "I can deliver Texas". Just like Julian Castro, but without the "... and help with the Latinx's vote nationwide" clause.

Last edited by JohnT; 03-14-2019 at 09:46 AM.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:03 AM
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Since it'll be mentioned:

Beto's fundraising prowess is over-rated, imho. 2018 was a perfect storm of an unattractive (but powerful) incumbent, blue wave populism, savvy social media marketing by his team, the appeal of a goal which is attainable with great team effort (which, in fact, required little effort - "click here to donate $5!"), and national attention directed to his (possibly) non-Quixotic dream of beating Ted Cruz, all attached to an attractive candidate whom we didn't really know all that much about, allowing us to mold "Beto O'Rourke" into whatever we wanted him to be.

It won't be the same this time. Beto might be popular and I'm seeing a lot of Twitter comments about how he does raising money, but in fact, he isn't the fund-raising monster Hillary Clinton was. And a lot of Beto's money came outside of Texas ($55m of $80m raised), which won't be the case this time as all the money he can get will have to come from the US and her citizens - he can't go beyond national borders to raise money like he could go beyond state borders to raise it.

:biting tongue:

Anyway, I don't see the same vibe coming from him in 2020 that we had in 2018. And if I were Biden, er, the eventual Dem nominee, I would choose Castro over O'Rourke if I had to choose a Texan.

Last edited by JohnT; 03-14-2019 at 10:04 AM.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:18 AM
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IMHO he’ll do well if Biden doesn’t run. If Biden does run Beto will have a comparitively harder time gaining traction compared to say, Harris or Warren or Booker.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:21 AM
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My opinion remains that Beto is the best campaigner the Democrats have right now, but not remotely the candidate who would make the best president. The problem is that I can't decide who that latter candidate is - I'm on the record as preferring that Biden, Sanders and Warren step aside for younger blood, but I don't yet have a preference from amongst the choices on offer.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:31 AM
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"We" (a term I use with trepidation) should de-emphasize candidates and focus on agenda. Most practical way to do that is to let the Dems hash it out in the usual way and support whomsoever. That's the first thing I want to hear from any and all of the candidates, that they pledge to unite behind whomsoever.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:42 AM
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He is very very charming, and great at retail politics. I think he took a picture with every Democrat in Texas during his senate run. I don't know if any of the younger generation are as good at baby-kissing and hand-shaking as he is.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:44 AM
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"We" (a term I use with trepidation) should de-emphasize candidates and focus on agenda. Most practical way to do that is to let the Dems hash it out in the usual way and support whomsoever. That's the first thing I want to hear from any and all of the candidates, that they pledge to unite behind whomsoever.
If “we” are the posters on this board having a policy discussion then I agree. If “we” are the Democratic electorate, then just like most other elections it will end up being more about the candidates and who is more likeable and who seems most capable of beating Trump. IMHO we (Americans as a whole) can’t afford to nominate a Democrat who has slightly better policy positions (compared to the other Democratic candidates) but who lacks charisma and the ability to dish it out and take it in a slugfest with Trump.
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:46 AM
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My opinion remains that Beto is the best campaigner the Democrats have right now, but not remotely the candidate who would make the best president. The problem is that I can't decide who that latter candidate is - I'm on the record as preferring that Biden, Sanders and Warren step aside for younger blood, but I don't yet have a preference from amongst the choices on offer.
That's why they SHOULD run and force a younger candidate to beat them. Not every field of young attractice candidates has an Obama or JFK. Most of the time it's just Rubios. You don't want to go into the general election with a Rubio. If there's an Obama or JFK here, they'll overcome the old farts easily. If not, be glad you have a likeable, experienced nominee(Biden).
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Old 03-14-2019, 10:47 AM
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"We" (a term I use with trepidation) should de-emphasize candidates and focus on agenda. Most practical way to do that is to let the Dems hash it out in the usual way and support whomsoever. That's the first thing I want to hear from any and all of the candidates, that they pledge to unite behind whomsoever.
Sanders is the only one who is suspect on that count. For everyone else it's a given.
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Old 03-14-2019, 12:06 PM
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Sanders is the only one who is suspect on that count. For everyone else it's a given.
Sanders is the only candidate who has proven that he will support the eventual primary winner.

Last edited by TriPolar; 03-14-2019 at 12:06 PM.
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Old 03-14-2019, 12:16 PM
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There's some dispute as to how all in he was on that.
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Old 03-14-2019, 12:23 PM
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There's some dispute as to how all in he was on that.
Agreed. To be fair this time around he’s going to have a much harder time with any kind of claim the eventual winner was anointed by party elites and superdelegates. If he does that this time (assuming he doesn’t win) he will look more like a sore loser rather than an outsider railing against a corrupt establishment.
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Old 03-14-2019, 12:24 PM
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Not every field of young attractice candidates has an Obama or JFK. Most of the time it's just Rubios. You don't want to go into the general election with a Rubio.
This may be the truest thing you've ever said. Sadly, as a Florida voter I am occasionally faced with a Rubio. Who wins, because the Democratic alternatives are not particularly compelling either.

That said - and bearing in mind I'm an independent, so apply appropriate caveats - I don't think it's unreasonable to insist that the Democratic candidate ought to be a Democrat. Also, I think Sanders - and Warren - would be more effective in Congress than in the White House.

However, unless the eventual nominee turns out to be someone really far out there (like Michael Moore) I'm almost certainly voting for the Democrat against Trump or Pence.
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Old 03-14-2019, 12:24 PM
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I'll say this: Beto is the best suited person to handle Trump's rhetoric. And he is the best person to handle Trump in the debates.

The optic look good for Beto.
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Old 03-14-2019, 12:39 PM
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The gap will close, though some people just will refuse to vote for a black woman.
I think that is certainly the case when trying to take votes away from Trump.
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Old 03-14-2019, 01:03 PM
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If O'Rourke's case is that he can deliver Texas, then he's dead in the water. He couldn't win a statewide race against Cruz, and Trump is more popular than Cruz in Texas. Ergo, he won't be able to win a statewide race against Trump, either. He would probably make Texas closer than any of the other candidates could, but this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades. Close doesn't matter.

I suppose that you could argue that he could flip a state that's like Texas but more purple, except that the list of states that's like Texas consists of: Texas.
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Old 03-14-2019, 01:26 PM
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This may be the truest thing you've ever said. Sadly, as a Florida voter I am occasionally faced with a Rubio. Who wins, because the Democratic alternatives are not particularly compelling either.

That said - and bearing in mind I'm an independent, so apply appropriate caveats - I don't think it's unreasonable to insist that the Democratic candidate ought to be a Democrat. Also, I think Sanders - and Warren - would be more effective in Congress than in the White House.

However, unless the eventual nominee turns out to be someone really far out there (like Michael Moore) I'm almost certainly voting for the Democrat against Trump or Pence.
Not to shit on Rubio too much, because he still has potential and could be President someday. But the vast majority of politicians don't become Presidential material in their 40s. It happens in their 50s and 60s or even 70s. Joe Biden is a great example of that. In 1988 he was nowhere near ready, but I really think he's the ideal guy for this time.
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Old 03-14-2019, 01:35 PM
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I'm not surprised Beto is in the race. If he does very well he can get the presidential nomination. If he doesn't get that, he looks like the best running mate for any woman who gets the nomination (sorry, Julian). Worst case, he gets neither but has kept his name in the news until he announces another go at the senate.
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Old 03-14-2019, 01:37 PM
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Not to shit on Rubio too much, because he still has potential and could be President someday.
That's a horrifying thought, and Rubio deserves to be shat upon from a great height. He is definitely a second-rater; it's just that he looks good by comparison with the vast number of far less competent Republicans in Congress these days. Had the Democrats put up someone more robust (and less shady) than Patrick Murphy in 2016 he would have had a competitive race. Still, you vote for what you have. And sometimes you have a Rubio.
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Old 03-14-2019, 01:53 PM
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That's a horrifying thought, and Rubio deserves to be shat upon from a great height. He is definitely a second-rater; it's just that he looks good by comparison with the vast number of far less competent Republicans in Congress these days. Had the Democrats put up someone more robust (and less shady) than Patrick Murphy in 2016 he would have had a competitive race. Still, you vote for what you have. And sometimes you have a Rubio.
Rubio would probably be a terrible president. I would welcome the improvement over the current situation.
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Old 03-14-2019, 01:55 PM
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If O'Rourke's case is that he can deliver Texas, then he's dead in the water. He couldn't win a statewide race against Cruz, and Trump is more popular than Cruz in Texas. Ergo, he won't be able to win a statewide race against Trump, either. He would probably make Texas closer than any of the other candidates could, but this isn't horseshoes or hand grenades. Close doesn't matter.

I suppose that you could argue that he could flip a state that's like Texas but more purple, except that the list of states that's like Texas consists of: Texas.
A lot of truth in this. If the Democrats win Texas, then the Democrats didn't need Texas anyway. But I put him in the first tier of people that can win, along with Castro, Biden, and Harris. Bernie and Warren are too easy targets and might as well have a hammer and sickle tattooed on their faces.
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Old 03-14-2019, 02:21 PM
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I’m very active on social media and Beto’s ads are all over my feeds today. Not sure this is a good thing, too much too early in my opinion.
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Old 03-14-2019, 02:34 PM
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A lot of truth in this. If the Democrats win Texas, then the Democrats didn't need Texas anyway. But I put him in the first tier of people that can win, along with Castro, Biden, and Harris. Bernie and Warren are too easy targets and might as well have a hammer and sickle tattooed on their faces.
I just don't think there's any way Castro is in the top tier, especially with a much more charismatic fellow-Texan in the race. This is going to be a race for who can get the small donors to flock to them. The "thing" right now is for candidates to swear off those big-time and corporate donors. That's what worked in the midterms. So unless your name is Beto, Bernie, Joe or Kamala, I think it's going to be hard to attract the number of small donors to stay "pure" and still have enough money in your coffer to run effectively.

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I’m very active on social media and Beto’s ads are all over my feeds today. Not sure this is a good thing, too much too early in my opinion.
I'm guessing it's to boost first-day/week fundraising numbers as much as possible.
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Old 03-14-2019, 02:46 PM
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This time is even more important than the last. Now we are not tasked with preventing the destruction, but repairing. Which is always harder and more expensive.

As so many pundits have noted, our national politics is pulverized. There is a massive tug o' war, and whoever is pulling on my side of the rope is an ally. I trust Sanders and Warren in that regard, to keep on keeping on. It is good to have leaders who don't insist on being followed.

At least we have choices, they don't.
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Old 03-14-2019, 03:05 PM
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I’m very active on social media and Beto’s ads are all over my feeds today. Not sure this is a good thing, too much too early in my opinion.
I think the usual strategy is a busy rollout period to get a bump in the polls, then go easy until the debates. Sanders got a +6 bump and Harris a +3, so Beto would love to top that so the media can report on his surge.
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Old 03-14-2019, 03:06 PM
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This time is even more important than the last. Now we are not tasked with preventing the destruction, but repairing. Which is always harder and more expensive.

As so many pundits have noted, our national politics is pulverized. There is a massive tug o' war, and whoever is pulling on my side of the rope is an ally. I trust Sanders and Warren in that regard, to keep on keeping on. It is good to have leaders who don't insist on being followed.

At least we have choices, they don't.
Weld 2020!
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Old 03-14-2019, 05:05 PM
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I think the usual strategy is a busy rollout period to get a bump in the polls, then go easy until the debates. Sanders got a +6 bump and Harris a +3, so Beto would love to top that so the media can report on his surge.


True. I’m unique in that I’m in Chicago and we’ve got a competitive Mayoral race so I’ve been bombarded with political ads since basically the end of the midterms, whereas the rest of the USA has had a break since the midterms.
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Old 03-14-2019, 05:40 PM
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I don't see how you go from a losing Senate campaign to the presidency. Abraham Lincoln notwithstanding. Sure, Beto was a member of the House, but Dennis Kucinich never had a chance, and Tulsi Gabbard doesn't either. Realistically, to have a good shot at winning the nomination you need to be a senator or governor, or more rarely something of equivalent stature like Speaker of the House (Gephardt might have had a shot way back when) or very high rank in the military (e.g. Wesley Clark).

I'm especially disappointed because if anyone had a chance to unseat Cornyn, it's Beto. The Dems have plenty of presidential candidates. What they need to work on is the Senate and state-level offices. Maybe he can still make a successful run for governor in 2022. But I'm not sure his presidential campaign will help.
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Old 03-14-2019, 05:41 PM
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Dream team: Biden for Prez, Beto for VP.
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Old 03-14-2019, 11:28 PM
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I think he's a serious candidate and can definitely win.

I thought the quote in post 2 was odd when I read it:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Clare Malone from 538
O’Rourke’s national appeal to Democrats might be that he could push progressive boundaries and motivate a minority community without alienating independent white suburban voters. This “woke whiteness” factor — the idea that progressive white men in particular might be able to say and do things that minority candidates couldn’t get away with — certainly seems to be an implicit part of O’Rourke’s appeal.
But he's NOT a progressive, as far as I can tell. He doesn't support Medicare for All and AFAIK he hasn't signed on to the Green New Deal. What radical, edgy ideas is he pushing? He seems pretty moderate from here.

Not that there's anything wrong with that...but I agree with whoever said that his supporters seem to project their own ideology onto him. Which is pretty much how Obama won the nomination, but he only had one opponent, who didn't really have any major ideological differences with him. I doubt that will fly this time.

So yeah, he's in the moderate lane with Biden and Klobuchar. I think he might have the charisma to win that lane, and then who knows? OTOH, moderates tend to place a lot of importance on experience, which is obviously a weakness.

I hope/expect that the Biden/Beto ticket is not happening. I don't think the Democrats are going to run a ticket of two white guys again in my lifetime. But he could make a good running mate for any of the non-white guy candidates.

I donated to him last year because Ted Cruz, and I've already gotten multiple texts soliciting additional donations. That's actually kind of annoying.

Last edited by Thing Fish; 03-14-2019 at 11:30 PM.
  #45  
Old 03-15-2019, 12:05 AM
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I thought it was all part of his miracle fund-raising ability. Now, the same tactics are annoying? Imagine that!

Last edited by JohnT; 03-15-2019 at 12:08 AM.
  #46  
Old 03-15-2019, 12:33 AM
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Originally Posted by gatorslap View Post
I'm especially disappointed because if anyone had a chance to unseat Cornyn, it's Beto. The Dems have plenty of presidential candidates. What they need to work on is the Senate and state-level offices. Maybe he can still make a successful run for governor in 2022. But I'm not sure his presidential campaign will help.
Actually, he can still run against Cornyn. The primary filing deadline will be at the end of this year, so he can dip his toes in the Presidential waters, raise a boatload of money, see if he catches fire early and if not announce that he's decided he can best serve his country in the Senate. And all of that money he raised he can slide right over to his Senate campaign.
  #47  
Old 03-15-2019, 01:54 AM
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Originally Posted by JohnT View Post
I thought it was all part of his miracle fund-raising ability. Now, the same tactics are annoying? Imagine that!
I don't recall ever getting followup texts from him last election, though. E-mails beyond counting, of course, but that's to be expected. I'll allow it this time because it's his kickoff, but if it continues I'll...um, be annoyed?
  #48  
Old 03-15-2019, 08:38 AM
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Seth Myers proposes a test for candidate utterances: "Would we make fun of Trump if he said that?"

OTOH, About a minute after the Youtube setting above, a FoxNews man denigrates Beto because of his large library: "As if it's a big plus that he reads books."
  #49  
Old 03-15-2019, 08:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by flurb View Post
Actually, he can still run against Cornyn. The primary filing deadline will be at the end of this year, so he can dip his toes in the Presidential waters, raise a boatload of money, see if he catches fire early and if not announce that he's decided he can best serve his country in the Senate. And all of that money he raised he can slide right over to his Senate campaign.
I hope at least most of this impressive mass of people running for President are thinking something similar - that the nomination will be decided, or at least down to at most 2 or 3 possibilities, on Super Tuesday at the latest, before the filing deadlines for Senator or Governor in their states.

Last edited by ElvisL1ves; 03-15-2019 at 08:50 AM.
  #50  
Old 03-15-2019, 10:31 AM
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You and me, both, Elvis. This thing will be done in about five weeks next February and March. But there's more to play for than just the White House.
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