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  #51  
Old 07-08-2019, 06:44 AM
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Possibly, but people are completely ignoring his campaign. O'Rourke has a small following that most likely comes from Texas or is familiar with his campaign against Ted Cruz, or maybe they just think he looks kinda like RFK and his campaign will eventually catch fire. It won't. Few candidates have run a more disappointing campaign so far than Beto.
I likewise agree. I have a few friends who are gaga for Beto but they're Texas-based. All I hear from them is how he's definitely the man to take on Trump and that the country isn't ready for a gay mayor or an African-American woman and how it's so unfair that everyone is ganging up on Beto.

O'Rourke barnstormed his campaign against Cruz but this one feels like he's doing it under duress. I like the guy but I'm just not feeling it now, and apparently few outside Texas are either.
  #52  
Old 07-08-2019, 07:19 AM
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I've been running the Google Trends data on Beto and he consistently ranks near the bottom in Search -- like for the past month or so. I sometimes had to run the searches in Trends again just to make sure I didn't mistype. I didn't. I acknowledge that this method of gauging interest probably requires a hell of a lot more rigor than what I've applied, but the way I figure it, it's probably not a bad method to see which candidates are on people's minds, for better or worse. From what I can tell, Beto's campaign is as dead as a doornail.

But I wanted to add that I really like Beto - he seems like a swell guy. Just not really presidential candidate material. I could see him holding a lower level cabinet post though.

Last edited by asahi; 07-08-2019 at 07:22 AM.
  #53  
Old 07-08-2019, 11:37 AM
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It could be as early as today, according to Twitter, Eric Swalwell has canceled a trip to New Hampshire and is holding a press conference today.

https://twitter.com/grace_panetta/st...468955648?s=21
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  #54  
Old 07-08-2019, 11:44 AM
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This onion article is relevant to people dropping out of the race

https://politics.theonion.com/bobby-...ugh-1819577411

Jindal actually lasted 5 months in the race but quit in Nov 2015 before all the primaries

Last edited by Bijou Drains; 07-08-2019 at 11:46 AM.
  #55  
Old 07-08-2019, 12:28 PM
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More on Swalwell.

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NEWS: Eric Swalwell plans to drop out of the presidential race and seek reelection to the House, according to a Capitol Hill source familiar with his intentions. An announcement is expected later today in Swalwellís district in the East Bay area outside San Francisco.
Link to Tweet.

Tom Steyer may be jumping in, but probably as an independent.

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NEWS - @TomSteyer told his staff last week that he's jumping into the presidential race after all, and is planning an announcement on Tuesday
Link to Tweet.
  #56  
Old 07-08-2019, 12:53 PM
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More on Swalwell.



Link to Tweet.

Tom Steyer may be jumping in, but probably as an independent.



Link to Tweet.
Candidate: "I'm running for President!"
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  #57  
Old 07-08-2019, 02:36 PM
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Had to Google it to see if Swalwell was in one of the debates two weeks ago (he was), or whether he was one of the candidates who was left out entirely.
  #58  
Old 07-08-2019, 04:35 PM
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My prediction is that if Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Sanders wins the nomination, a billionaire will follow through on running for president. It's their way of ensuring that a socialist doesn't "corrupt" modern gangster capitalism. I don't know whether Steyer is serious, but I suspect that there is at least one billionaire out there egotistical and self-centered enough to put Trump back in power for 4 more years if democratic socialism becomes a thing.
  #59  
Old 07-08-2019, 05:34 PM
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My prediction is that if Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Sanders wins the nomination, a billionaire will follow through on running for president. It's their way of ensuring that a socialist doesn't "corrupt" modern gangster capitalism. I don't know whether Steyer is serious, but I suspect that there is at least one billionaire out there egotistical and self-centered enough to put Trump back in power for 4 more years if democratic socialism becomes a thing.
All too real a possibility, unfortunately.
  #60  
Old 07-09-2019, 03:40 AM
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Had to Google it to see if Swalwell was in one of the debates two weeks ago (he was), or whether he was one of the candidates who was left out entirely.
IIRC Swalwell was the one who chose "Joe Biden's old!" as the hill to die on at the debate. It did not go well for him.
  #61  
Old 07-09-2019, 11:50 AM
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Steyer is now in as a Democrat.

It's like whack a mole. Swalwell out Steyer in.
  #62  
Old 07-09-2019, 11:52 AM
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Steyer is now in as a Democrat.

It's like whack a mole. Swalwell out Steyer in.
It will be fun to watch everybody ignore a billionaire.
  #63  
Old 07-09-2019, 12:45 PM
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It will be fun to watch everybody ignore a billionaire.
Did we already do that?
  #64  
Old 07-09-2019, 01:03 PM
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Props at least to Steyer for not running as an Independent. As a Dem super donor, he must have an appreciation for the spoiler effect of third party runs. Maybe his focus on climate change and electoral reform will be good overall for the party. (With all that money to spend, he might be more effective than Gov. Inslee on pushing climate as a major issue.)
  #65  
Old 07-09-2019, 03:48 PM
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Steyer is a wildcard, the second non-politician/businessman to enter the race after Andrew Yang. It'll be interesting to get a more granular look at his positions.
  #66  
Old 07-10-2019, 02:48 AM
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Possibly, but people are completely ignoring his campaign. O'Rourke has a small following that most likely comes from Texas or is familiar with his campaign against Ted Cruz, or maybe they just think he looks kinda like RFK and his campaign will eventually catch fire. It won't. Few candidates have run a more disappointing campaign so far than Beto.
You are strawmanning me or somehow completely missing my point. I declared right at the beginning of my post that he is not a serious contender. But you had listed him as being below other non-contenders like Gabbard, Yang, and Gillibrand. Thatís silly. And your counterargument is that heís not a serious contender?
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Old 07-10-2019, 12:51 PM
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Did we already do that?
Tru dat.
  #68  
Old 07-10-2019, 12:59 PM
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Steyer is a wildcard, the second non-politician/businessman to enter the race after Andrew Yang. It'll be interesting to get a more granular look at his positions.
One big difference between an outsider billionaire running for the Dem nomination v. the GOP nomination: somebody (Wiegel, maybe) was pointing out earlier this week that all the other 2016 GOP candidates had their super-PACs and their high-dollar private fundraising events. Trump stood out by being able to claim he didn't need any of that - he wouldn't be part of the swamp, and he was uniquely positioned to make that claim.

But on the Dem side in 2020, nobody has a super-PAC, most have said they're not accepting PAC and lobbyist contributions, and Sanders and Warren aren't having any private fundraisers for big-dollar donors. Steyer can say he's not part of the swamp either, but it's far from a unique selling point.
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Old 07-10-2019, 01:50 PM
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Also, let's face it, businessmen are much more highly thought of on the GOP side.
  #70  
Old 07-10-2019, 01:54 PM
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My prediction is that if Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Sanders wins the nomination, a billionaire will follow through on running for president. It's their way of ensuring that a socialist doesn't "corrupt" modern gangster capitalism. I don't know whether Steyer is serious, but I suspect that there is at least one billionaire out there egotistical and self-centered enough to put Trump back in power for 4 more years if democratic socialism becomes a thing.
Thatís the danger of the far left. As Venezuela has once again demonstrated, socialism leads to raiding the zoo to fight over the iguana, donkey, and warthog for dinner. The elite might claim one thing economically and they are probably socially liberal but it would be foolish to believe they actually want economic equality.
  #71  
Old 07-10-2019, 02:03 PM
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That’s the danger of the far left. As Venezuela has once again demonstrated, socialism leads to raiding the zoo to fight over the iguana, donkey, and warthog for dinner. The elite might claim one thing economically and they are probably socially liberal but it would be foolish to believe they actually want economic equality.
Socialism can be done well (like active military health care, most firefighting, health care in Canada and many other countries, etc.) and it can be done badly (i.e. Venezuela). At least that's how modern day progressives and Democratic-Socialists see it, for the most part. That you see socialism differently (and probably don't consider all the "good" examples above I offered as real socialism) doesn't invalidate this. This disagreement is largely about semantics, not actually about socialism.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 07-10-2019 at 02:04 PM.
  #72  
Old 07-10-2019, 03:35 PM
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Socialism can be done well (like active military health care, most firefighting, health care in Canada and many other countries, etc.) and it can be done badly (i.e. Venezuela). At least that's how modern day progressives and Democratic-Socialists see it, for the most part. That you see socialism differently (and probably don't consider all the "good" examples above I offered as real socialism) doesn't invalidate this. This disagreement is largely about semantics, not actually about socialism.
If all public options/programs are now socialism it seems as if the word is so broad as to have lost itís historical meaning.
  #73  
Old 07-10-2019, 05:15 PM
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If all public options/programs are now socialism it seems as if the word is so broad as to have lost it’s historical meaning.
So you don't believe universal health care (aka socialized medicine) is socialism? Whatever you call it, it's working quite well and is very popular in Canada and many other countries.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 07-10-2019 at 05:15 PM.
  #74  
Old 07-10-2019, 07:03 PM
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If all public options/programs are now socialism it seems as if the word is so broad as to have lost itís historical meaning.
What options/programs promoted by a candidate for the Democratic primaries for president do you consider "real" socialism?

Which candidate do you see as likely to turn the US into Venezuela, and do you think it will be by Executive Orders or by making the non-socialist majority in the Senate and house magically turn into true believers?
  #75  
Old 07-10-2019, 09:07 PM
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Looks like the Democratic field may narrow a lot faster than I predicted in my earlier timeline. Today I got a Facebook ad from the Cory Booker campaign.

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Originally Posted by A "personal" appeal from Cory Booker
Seven Democrats have already publicly crossed the DNC’s 130,000 donor threshold needed to qualify for the fall debates. Bernie Sanders did. Elizabeth Warren did. JuliŠn Castro did. Joe Biden did. Kamala Harris did. Andrew Yang did. And Pete Buttigieg did. Beto O’Rourke has probably reached it, too.

Now the question is whether other candidates —like us — will reach that tough measure of grassroots strength before the cutoff. And we’ll be honest, team: We're just about 15,000 donors shy of the 130,000 benchmark.

Can we count on you to chip in $1 to my campaign by midnight tonight?
The DNC's barriers may be arbitrary, but I don't think requiring 130,000 donors for a national presidential candidate is especially strict.

Here's a more in-depth look from Politico.

Last edited by Kent Clark; 07-10-2019 at 09:11 PM.
  #76  
Old 07-11-2019, 07:54 AM
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Thatís the danger of the far left. As Venezuela has once again demonstrated, socialism leads to raiding the zoo to fight over the iguana, donkey, and warthog for dinner.
It wasn't "socialism" that did that; it was having a corrupt strongman demagogue who used his office to funnel public resources to himself and his wealthy cronies to the point of bankrupting the country, persecute his political enemies and completely undermine the judicial and electoral system. Fortunately that couldn't happen in America...

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If all public options/programs are now socialism it seems as if the word is so broad as to have lost itís historical meaning.
It's good to know that conservatives are finally starting to understand what liberals have been telling them for decades now.
  #77  
Old 07-11-2019, 08:16 AM
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That’s the danger of the far left. As Venezuela has once again demonstrated, socialism leads to raiding the zoo to fight over the iguana, donkey, and warthog for dinner. The elite might claim one thing economically and they are probably socially liberal but it would be foolish to believe they actually want economic equality.
There's a lesson to be taken from Venezuela, but that's not the one I would take. If there's a lesson from the Venezuelan experience it's that populism run amok can destroy a democracy. A related concern is that people with authoritarian tendencies promote and employ ministers based on their loyalty, not their competence. That was one of the first problems with Hugo Chavez: he terminated his state-owned energy administrator, Luis Giusti.

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Among his first targets: the technocrats at PDVSA, especially the company’s deeply knowledgeable then-chairman and CEO, Luis Giusti, who’d led the drive to reopen the country’s oil sector. “ChŠvez saw Giusti as a potential rival. In fact, ChŠvez used the slogan ‘PDVSA is part of a state within a state,’” said Juan FernŠndez, a former PDVSA manager who would also fall afoul of the strongman. Giusti, alarmed by ChŠvez’s plans for the oil company, resigned just as he took office in early 1999; he was then replaced by a revolving cast of political appointees.
It didn't end there. This pattern of firing career officials and replacing them with blind devotees to Chavez's revolucion is what ultimately led to Venezuela's economic slide.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...havez-politics

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The unrest followed a government warning this week that employees would be suspected of subversion unless they joined pro-ChŠvez trade unions and community groups.
Authoritarians can be right wing or left wing - don't fall into the trap of assuming that it's simply socialism that embraces authoritarianism. Look objectively at the behavior of the individual or cast of characters responsible for implementing policies. Evaluate them based on their behavior. Evaluate this president based on his behavior, and what does his behavior tell you? What does it tell you when he hires people like Scott Pruitt who basically try to dismantle the agency on one hand and yet splurge for themselves on the taxpayer's dime on the other? What does it tell you when Trump wants to fire James Comey and Jeff Sessions because they would not steer the investigations into his campaign in the direction he wanted it to go? What does it tell you when this administration openly pressures Jerome Powell because, based on his deep background knowledge of economics, he thinks it's a bad idea to keep interest rates artificially low? It's loyalism that's the problem, and we have a president who is making decisions day-in and day-out that are based not on the merit of their ideas but on who's toeing the Trump line.

History shows there are consequences for that.

The other lesson that we can take from Venezuela is that 60% percent of the country (or more) can oppose the president and desperately want him removed, but if they cannot unify as opposition, if the opposition becomes so polarized that they spend just as much time arguing with each other, then the strongman wins. The strongman stays in power. That's the other cautionary tale from Venezuela.

Last edited by asahi; 07-11-2019 at 08:19 AM.
  #78  
Old 08-15-2019, 01:07 PM
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Hickenlooper out

https://twitter.com/hickenlooper/sta...440268800?s=21
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  #79  
Old 08-15-2019, 01:11 PM
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Excellent! Hopefully Bullock and Beto will follow Hick's example and try to run for Senate.
  #80  
Old 08-16-2019, 09:43 AM
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In answer to the OP, the field has been narrowing, it's just that the candidates are mostly staying in anyway.

But if you look at the polls, what's happening? Nobody's really breaking out of the 2% or lower group, and candidates who'd had more of a following are headed in that direction: Beto's just barely above 2%, Buttigieg's had a number of recent polls where he's at ~3% rather than the upper single digits, and Harris has fallen out of the double digits back to around 8%. Just in the past few weeks, we've gone from talking about a top 5 to a top 4, and now it's more like a top 3.
  #81  
Old 08-16-2019, 09:57 AM
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Excellent! Hopefully Bullock and Beto will follow Hick's example and try to run for Senate.
Hickenlooper's campaign was a disaster, an exercise in vanity. It was so bad it might end up hurting his chances for the Senate.
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Old 08-22-2019, 06:44 AM
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Jay Inslee just dropped out. I'm sad to see him go - of all the 1%ers, his was the only campaign that was clearly not a vanity campaign.
  #83  
Old 08-22-2019, 07:47 AM
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I dunno. The difference between a vanity campaign and a quixotic shot in the dark is a murky one, RT.

Still, you're right that the field is narrowing. But I'll still push back on your analysis of Buttigieg. He seems to be playing an odd game. One very clearly focused on catching attention in the early states and building from there. Alternately, he wants himself perceived as God's perfect VP choice.

Nationally, you're correct, he's at ~4-5% (538 averages). But here are his numbers in the first four states:

Last four polls:

Iowa 7, 7, 8, 13
New Hampshire 7, 8, 6, 8
South Carolina 5, 5, 4, 5
Nevada 13, 7, 7, 5

Those are interesting numbers for the largest no-name in the race.

He's another one who might be an interesting senate contender in two years. But for the moment, he's far exceeding expectations for a the Mayor of South Bend and he's only raising his profile. So long as he's got the money why not stay in and see how far he can take this thing?

And hell, maybe Inslee - presuming a D win next November - would make a good EPA director.
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Old 08-22-2019, 07:48 AM
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Him not getting an invitation to the Climate change townhall despite being the most foremost campaigner on the subject was probably the writing on the wall. Unfortunately with the importance of meeting financial thresholds to keep up, a Jimmy Carter type campaign can never win the nomination again.
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Old 08-22-2019, 08:21 AM
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It's really a shame that someone like Inslee can't be competitive in a presidential race. I guess he couldn't find an identity lane to run in, but whatever. I'm not pissed that he didn't win, but I'm pissed that people like him can't even compete - can't even poll better than Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang. I would say the same for Hickenlooper but he showed himself to be an asshole, so count me as 'not a fan of that guy'. But Inslee had the goods.

As awful as the Republican party is, the fact that accomplished governors can't even be remotely competitive anymore is proof that our democracy is just plain dumb, and probably dead.
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Old 08-22-2019, 08:33 AM
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I would say the same for Hickenlooper but he showed himself to be an asshole, so count me as 'not a fan of that guy'.
I must have missed this. How was he an asshole?
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Old 08-22-2019, 09:01 AM
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I must have missed this. How was he an asshole?
Mocking Bernie Sanders the way he did in his last debate was an asshole move. Mocking the progressive wing in the Democratic party generally was another asshole move. And his refusal to drop out even after his own closest advisors told him he had absolutely ZERO chance to win is evidence that he's an arrogant, delusional ass. He just strikes me as someone who's really let this "I'm the governor of a swing state" thing go to his head.
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Old 08-22-2019, 10:38 AM
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I dunno. The difference between a vanity campaign and a quixotic shot in the dark is a murky one, RT.
I think the work Inslee and his team have put into developing a quite detailed plan for addressing climate change distinguishes Inslee's campaign from a vanity campaign.
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Old 08-22-2019, 08:10 PM
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I don't think that any non-disgraced senator or governor can be regarded as a "vanity campaign", at least not at the start. If you still haven't broken the 1% threshold after six months and two debates and you stay in, sure, at that point it's a vanity campaign. But at the start, you look at a governor, and you say "it could happen".

By the same token, when a guy is running whose main claim to fame is doing a bad job of playing a billionaire on TV, at the start, that's a vanity campaign. But it might become something else if he sticks in it and somehow manages to outpoll all of the real candidates.
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Old 08-23-2019, 12:28 PM
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Seth Moulton is out, too. Yes, I know, "He was in?" Good guy but started too late and had too little rationale to offer for his candidacy.

Inslee for Energy or Interior, I hope. He impressed me a helluva lot, FWIW (and yes, I know that too).
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Old 08-23-2019, 12:37 PM
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I must have missed this. How was [Hickenlooper] an asshole?
In every interview he has attacked fellow Democrats as socialists who are too extreme for the country, helping right-wingers who are trying hard to make "socialist" a dirty word.

Also he kept saying he his skills & interests are only in the executive branch, and didn't even want to be a Senator. That always seemed disrespectful, not to mention hypocritical - are people supposed to be excited about voting for him as a Senator now? That may well have destroyed the Democratic party's chance to take back the Senate majority.

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Old 08-23-2019, 02:29 PM
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If all public options/programs are now socialism it seems as if the word is so broad as to have lost itís historical meaning.
When you get right down to it, libraries are socialist. Loaning books to just anybody. Depriving authors of royalties. Jeez.
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Old 08-23-2019, 04:45 PM
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It's really a shame that someone like Inslee can't be competitive in a presidential race. I guess he couldn't find an identity lane to run in, but whatever. I'm not pissed that he didn't win, but I'm pissed that people like him can't even compete - can't even poll better than Tulsi Gabbard and Andrew Yang. I would say the same for Hickenlooper but he showed himself to be an asshole, so count me as 'not a fan of that guy'. But Inslee had the goods.

As awful as the Republican party is, the fact that accomplished governors can't even be remotely competitive anymore is proof that our democracy is just plain dumb, and probably dead.

Iím not mad at Hickenlooper, but the rest is spot on. Washington is a fairly populated state with an extremely strong amount of economic and cultural capital, and he has been a good progressive governor there. Plus he was in Congress before that, so he wouldnít be one of those governors who comes in knowing nothing about DC. Itís absurd, as you say, that he would be taken less seriously than Gabbard and Yang. Frankly, the polling up and down the entire field shows that Democratic primary voters donít know what the fuck they are doing (not that the Republican ones do, obviously). They are terribly unpragmatic in most cases, and the ones who think they are being pragmatic are backing a guy (Biden) who is way too old and was never that strong a candidate even when he was younger.
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Old 08-24-2019, 06:20 PM
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Excellent! Hopefully Bullock and Beto will follow Hick's example and try to run for Senate.
Just curious, why are people saying that Beto should do this and not fellow Texan Julian Castro? Beto, at least is at 2% rather than 1.
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Old 08-24-2019, 06:44 PM
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Probably because most folks don't even know that Castro's running.
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Old 08-24-2019, 07:05 PM
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Or think he's Fidel. That surname is poisoned until the dumber Boomers are dead.

Last edited by dropzone; 08-24-2019 at 07:05 PM.
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Old 08-24-2019, 07:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by E-DUB View Post
Just curious, why are people saying that Beto should do this and not fellow Texan Julian Castro? Beto, at least is at 2% rather than 1.
Castro should too, IMO. And Biden should just retire. Tulsi should drop out because she sucks (and has no chance). Delaney, too. And Steyer, Yang, and everyone else aside from my top 5 candidates (Warren, Sanders, Harris, Booker, and Klobuchar).
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Old 08-24-2019, 08:28 PM
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[QUOTE=iiandyiiii;21823950]And Biden should just retire. [\QUOTE]


???? The top polling candidate should retire?
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Old 08-24-2019, 08:52 PM
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Yes, in fact because he is the top polling candidate but he is weak. However, Warren is also weak in her own way, even weaker probably—and if she understood that, one would hope she would get out for the good of the country. I was pleased that Bill Maher last night expressed his worries that she is another McGovern, a worry I share. He raised the point to shoot down the claim made by Katie Porter, the same one I see here and on social media, that her strong polling among Democrats shows that she is not weak. McGovern shows that sometimes what is catnip to Democrats is repellent to swing voters. He pointed out that Nixon was no Reagan and that in fact he was a “sweaty, awkward loser” who had no business winning 49 states and would not have against a strong opponent.
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Old 08-24-2019, 09:19 PM
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???? The top polling candidate should retire?
Yes, and Trump should resign, and so should Pence, so Pelosi becomes president, and McConnell should retire, as should every other Republican in office. The 5 conservative SCOTUS justices should retire, as should every other Republican judge.

What, you disagree?
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