#151  
Old 10-29-2019, 03:18 PM
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For those of you questioning the 40% figure I should have said Up to 40%. I live in an area where -30 is common and -40C without windchill is nothing unusual during the winter months. Anecdotally, I could easily achieve 600km on a tank of gas in my 07 Legacy Wagon. That dropped to 400 during the peak cold months with the same type of driving. That does not include the money I spent on electricity for the block heater. During my deployments to Inuvik we would leave our diesel trucks running during the cold snaps as they would not start otherwise. For those of you living in milder climes, obviously you won't take anywhere near that kind of a hit, but you won't in an EV either and that was the point I was trying to make.
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  #152  
Old 10-29-2019, 04:05 PM
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Originally Posted by Oredigger77 View Post
20 minutes to add 400 miles of range anywhere in the country would solve people issues with EVs more than hotel charging since they could just fill up over breakfast on their way out.
Why not both?

Hotels exist to provide services, they will provide those services to their clients in the form of overnight charging stations.

Supercharging stations can still be built, and used during unusual situations like yours. The technology exists, but I see it as a fill in service rather than a typical way to charge an EV.
  #153  
Old 10-29-2019, 08:07 PM
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Why not both?
Because while there is some benefit to people who stop at appropriate sized hotel. I think giant casino or resort hotels will have trouble building the infrastructure to charge 5 or 6 hundred cars over night and small bed and breakfast hotels will also find it hard to afford to 6 charging stations.

On the other hand if refills become super fast then as people stagger out of or in to the hotel the charging will be staggered requiring a lower number of stations. Also people will be able to top up for a variety of reason besides getting a hotel room.
  #154  
Old 10-29-2019, 08:36 PM
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I think giant casino or resort hotels will have trouble building the infrastructure to charge 5 or 6 hundred cars over night and small bed and breakfast hotels will also find it hard to afford to 6 charging stations.
We can do some napkin math to see how tenable this is. This page says that hotels spend $2196 per year on energy per room per year. It's possible that some of this includes gas costs but it's likely to be mostly electricity. Assuming $0.10/kWh (which is probably high--industrial users are likely to pay less than this), that means about 22,000 kWh per year, or 60 kWh per day. Which, if we assume one car per room, means 60 kWh per car per night.

60 kWh is a pretty good number for a mostly full charge on an EV. It's about that on a Bolt, Model 3 SR, or Leaf. Somewhat less than a Model S or eTron, but people aren't going to be doing full charges every night, and there will also be cars with <60 kWh batteries.

So at worst, that means a rough doubling of electrical infrastructure for a given hotel. But that's incredibly pessimistic, because most energy use is during the day whereas cars charge at night. So the EV charging is mostly going to just use existing infrastructure more efficiently.

It's also pessimistic with the raw numbers, because there's almost certainly less than one car per room on average (out of town people) and if anyone is staying multiple nights, they probably aren't needing a full charge every single night.

I don't see any showstoppers here even with nearly 100% EV penetration. Hotels might have to beef up their infrastructure by 25-50%, say, but that's not a huge deal. It's not like it's 10x the load or anything silly.
  #155  
Old 10-29-2019, 08:51 PM
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A bit of a side question: Is there any agreed upon etiquette among EV owners regarding how long is appropriate to leave a car parked at a charging station after it's fully charged? Where I work there are more EV drivers than charging stations, so the EV drivers all have sort of an unwritten rule that thou shalt move one's car ASAP when it's finished charging, so someone else can have a chance to charge. But does it work like that elsewhere?

A few scenarios:
1. In the case of hotels, at least as long as a full charge takes a couple of hours, people are going to want to check in to the hotel, plug in their car, and go to bed. Except that will leave the charger tied up for 8 hours or so, even if it only takes say half that time to actually charge the car. Now in this case it might be unlikely someone will show up at 2 am needing to charge their car, but it's possible, and the charger is being blocked unnecessarily by another guest when they need it.
2. From my home, a trip to San Francisco and back is just barely within the range of something like a Tesla Model 3. But if I owned one what I'd more likely do is to drive to a BART station, plug in to a charging station there, take BART into the city (I hate driving and parking in big cities), enjoy the city for the day, and return maybe 8 hours later. That's not too different from the hotel scenario, but during the day. I'm not sure if EV owners would consider it rude to tie up a charger for that long. Is it preferable in this sort of situation to park in a regular space, then move to the charging station upon returning?
3. Admittedly this is really extreme. The airport has a bunch of EV charging stations in the long term parking lot. I'm almost certain they wouldn't allow people to plug in before leaving for their trip and leave the car at the charging station the entire time. I assume what you're supposed to do there is to park in a normal spot, and after returning from your trip move to the charging station if you need to top up your battery to make it home. I admit I would find that a little inconvenient since I usually want to get home as quickly as possible after a long trip, though as charging becomes faster it will become less of an issue.
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Old 10-29-2019, 09:06 PM
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This hotel debate is based on slow charging batteries. I think it's highly likely that Li batteries are not the future. so a parking lot full of chargers is probably not going to be the norm.
  #157  
Old 10-29-2019, 09:09 PM
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Superchargers have added idle fees (and rather high ones at that), so there's a strong disincentive to leaving your car plugged in. Though the fees only kick in if the station is above a certain occupancy.

For our work chargers, the usage is so high that we have a valet service to move cars in and out. It's pretty ridiculous, honestly, since installing a bunch more stations has to cost less than the valet's salary for a couple of years. Or just get some extra-long charge cables and move the cables instead of the cars.

I'd say it's generally rude to tie up a slot when there's a reasonable expectation that someone else might use it. That's pretty context-dependent, though.

I believe that J1772 chargers don't generally have locks, so under some circumstances, someone could take your now-idle charger and use it on their car in an adjacent space. If there are few chargers but plenty of empty packing spaces, I'd say that workaround makes idleness substantially less bad.
  #158  
Old 10-29-2019, 09:52 PM
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At least according to wiki a single super charger bay costs $270k even for a 6 bed bed and breakfast that's $1.5mm that is the infrastructure investment I was referring to. With a 12 year estimated life that will increase operating costs by $10k/month. While I'm sure costs will come down over time increasing the cost of a room by $50/night seems like a big ask not counting electricity. On the other hand if that cost was spread over 5 drivers per hour 16 hours per day your under a dollar per user so again the stations make more sense.
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Old 10-29-2019, 10:06 PM
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Hub and I were recently discussing a police chase where an officer had to wave off, because his battery was low.

Hubs: "yeah, duh."

Me: "Have you never pulled off a chase because you were low on fuel?"

My bitter half: "oh yeah."

I swear, people act like it's unforgivable if experimental vehicles have operational limits.
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Old 10-29-2019, 10:50 PM
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I have an idea for how hotels and perhaps other places could charge more cars than they have charging stations without bothering their guests to move their cars at inconvenient times. It involves using the Summon feature that Tesla recently introduced. A modified Summon, that is.

When a Tesla (or other EV with the Summon feature)-driving guest reaches the hotel, they park in certain designated spots or perhaps turn the car over to a hotel employee with the job title of EV-attendant. This would not be total control, though. Just the ability to move the car between a charging station and another parking area and back using the Summon feature. The car can be locked during the entire time. Also the EV-attendant would need to get the notification when the car is recharged.

So the EV-attendant just has to unplug cars that are fully charged, tell them to return to the parking space, Summon the next car, and plug that one in. Since the cars have Summon, the charging stations and other parking area don't even need to be very close to the hotel front door. They could be at the far end of the parking lot.

They could call this feature EValet just to be cute. I better patent this idea or Elon is going to steal it.
  #161  
Old 10-29-2019, 10:53 PM
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An ICE will take a hit in the winter when they add ethanol to the mix, but nothing like 40%.

I think there is one issue to tackle with EV that will catapult them into the mainstream. Range Anxiety. Solve range anxiety (at a comparable to ICE cost) and you've got it.

I figure a 500 mile range is the tipping point where a lot of people will conclude that it has 'enough' range for anything they realistically do. Not where it is good enough for 98% of their driving, but ALL their driving. Also not all of everyone's driving, just all of their own personal driving.

It requires a couple of infrastructure developments, though. Widespread, robust, home charging is first. Obviously this is an individual decision, but the power companies need the ability to support this use case. Anyone who uses their car a lot will need the capacity for a full 500 mile charge overnight, even if that's only 6-7 hours.

Second is destination charging. You go to a hotel, drive 450 miles to get there, you (and a lot of other guests) need to have charging at the hotel that will fill your car by the time you leave in the morning. Not "we have 20 chargers, pick any one that's not being used" you need to be guaranteed a charger for your stay. A hotel with 100 rooms needs something on the order of 100 maxed out level 2 charging stations. That's a lot of power, a couple of megawatts, on top of what the hotel itself needs, power that is all going to be used at the same time during every holiday weekend.
Spot on except for two things
1. How do you account for people who can't do home charging; maybe an apartment complex can add many chargers but what about city dwellers? An area with row homes/browstones that were turned into three apartments; that building might have four EVs yet they can't all park in front of their property. Some people in popular areas may have to park blocks from their home currently; that doesn't change because of what's under the hood.

2. Even if a hotel is at max capacity, with everyone driving an EV, not everyone will get in at the same time so they won't all be charging at the same time, nor as it's pointed out will everyone need a charge every night. Also remember, overnight rates are less expensive in areas where they have time-metered rates because there's less people using power; most offices are closed & most people are asleep. Yes, we'll need more total electricity but not necessarily more peak electricity.
  #162  
Old 10-29-2019, 11:45 PM
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I believe that J1772 chargers don't generally have locks, so under some circumstances, someone could take your now-idle charger and use it on their car in an adjacent space. If there are few chargers but plenty of empty packing spaces, I'd say that workaround makes idleness substantially less bad.
No locks on J1772. CCS has an active latch, but can be released at the charging unit. I lifted this idea from some site selling these and made my own, so I have these dry erase placards I can leave that on my dash that have various messages. Like, “Feel free to unplug me at 80%” and gives my phone number if someone needs me to move.

I rarely charge at public places long enough to get anywhere near full so at least so far, I’ve always cleared out well in advance of being rude.
  #163  
Old 10-30-2019, 12:07 AM
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At least according to wiki a single super charger bay costs $270k even for a 6 bed bed and breakfast that's $1.5mm that is the infrastructure investment I was referring to.
A bed and breakfast doesn't need a Supercharger. L2 chargers are fine for overnight charging, and should be around $1000 per bay.

And really, it almost makes more sense to just install a bunch of outlets and let customers bring their own charge cables. That's only a couple hundred bucks of materials per port. RV parks already manage to do this on the cheap (and are sometimes used by EV drivers when nothing else is handy).
  #164  
Old 10-30-2019, 12:10 AM
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3. Admittedly this is really extreme. The airport has a bunch of EV charging stations in the long term parking lot. I'm almost certain they wouldn't allow people to plug in before leaving for their trip and leave the car at the charging station the entire time. I assume what you're supposed to do there is to park in a normal spot, and after returning from your trip move to the charging station if you need to top up your battery to make it home. I admit I would find that a little inconvenient since I usually want to get home as quickly as possible after a long trip, though as charging becomes faster it will become less of an issue.
At Seatac airport parking they have spots you can plug in (110 volts) for as long as you’re there. No additional charge. It takes me 30 hours to fully charge after my 62 mile trip to airport. There is a supercharger at the cell phone lot for those in need
  #165  
Old 10-30-2019, 12:47 AM
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Maybe super chargers are expensive, but level 1 and level 2 charging cables aren't. I think our level 1 cable was about $100. A quick Google turns up this level 2 charging cable for $300.
https://www.amazon.com/Level-EV-Char.../dp/B074VP6Y2D

It also costs something to have an electrician wire a new outlet, but that's not a major infrastructure cost.

Yeah, that's not good enough for a "gas station" replacement, but it's plenty for a hotel, where guests can leave the car plugged in over night.
  #166  
Old 10-30-2019, 01:58 AM
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Maybe super chargers are expensive, but level 1 and level 2 charging cables aren't. I think our level 1 cable was about $100. A quick Google turns up this level 2 charging cable for $300.
https://www.amazon.com/Level-EV-Char.../dp/B074VP6Y2D

It also costs something to have an electrician wire a new outlet, but that's not a major infrastructure cost.

Yeah, that's not good enough for a "gas station" replacement, but it's plenty for a hotel, where guests can leave the car plugged in over night.
Thanks for this. Makes a great deal of sense.

I get really tired of hearing how a charger "costs $270,000" so therefore it is impossible for a hotel to put one in. NOBODY needs a level 3 supercharger for an overnight stay at a hotel.

I recently stayed in Vancouver at a downtown hotel - they had several 110V plugs in the underground parking and directed me to one. Then when I left, they waived the parking fee because I was driving an EV. Guess which hotel I am going back to, and which one I direct anyone with an EV to?

Last edited by Euphonious Polemic; 10-30-2019 at 01:59 AM.
  #167  
Old 10-30-2019, 03:54 AM
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For those of you questioning the 40% figure I should have said Up to 40%. I live in an area where -30 is common and -40C without windchill is nothing unusual during the winter months. Anecdotally, I could easily achieve 600km on a tank of gas in my 07 Legacy Wagon. That dropped to 400 during the peak cold months with the same type of driving. That does not include the money I spent on electricity for the block heater. During my deployments to Inuvik we would leave our diesel trucks running during the cold snaps as they would not start otherwise. For those of you living in milder climes, obviously you won't take anywhere near that kind of a hit, but you won't in an EV either and that was the point I was trying to make.
Fair enough, but actually the figures seem to suggest that even those in milder climates will see 40% drops in real-world EV range (where the test was done at a fairly modest -7) and those are exactly the sort of conditions where I have driven ICE's and seen nothing approaching that.

Heck worst case scenario, last January I drove back through Austria and Germany in -10, heavy snow, crawling at 20 mph in many places and snow chains on for 80 miles. A normal 4.5 hour journey to Stuttgart took 11 hours and my average MPG was 50 when normally it would be 60.
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  #168  
Old 10-30-2019, 06:10 AM
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A bit of a side question: Is there any agreed upon etiquette among EV owners regarding how long is appropriate to leave a car parked at a charging station after it's fully charged?
No universal etiquette, no. In Québec it's now illegal to park a car in a designated charging spot if it's not charging (and also, of course, if it's not pluggable at all). Most of the level 2 and level 3 stations charge by the minute but the billing continues when you're finished charging, which motivates people to remove their cars (especially on level 3).

Depending on where the charger is located, it may or may not be physically possible to unplug the charger from another car and connect it to your own. But it does happen, and as a Volt owner (with a petrol engine as backup) I couldn't really fault somebody for unplugging my car if they really needed it. (As long as I'm not paying for their charge, and they're not physically blocking my car.)

The electric vehicle owners' association offers a little card you can leave on your dashboard with your first name and phone number and an paperclip indicating the time you expect to be finished charging. It's an imperfect solution, as not everyone likes having their name and phone number viewable in public.
  #169  
Old 10-30-2019, 06:26 AM
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Depending on where the charger is located, it may or may not be physically possible to unplug the charger from another car and connect it to your own. But it does happen, and as a Volt owner (with a petrol engine as backup) I couldn't really fault somebody for unplugging my car if they really needed it. (As long as I'm not paying for their charge, and they're not physically blocking my car.)
This is another hurdle that hopefully infrastructure expansion will help with.

As it stands, I never have to wait to refuel my car. To have a potential half-hour wait is a deal-breaker for me and many others. I'd need confidence that I can pull up and refuel immediately at a place of my choosing.
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  #170  
Old 10-30-2019, 07:06 AM
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Spot on except for two things
1. How do you account for people who can't do home charging; maybe an apartment complex can add many chargers but what about city dwellers? An area with row homes/browstones that were turned into three apartments; that building might have four EVs yet they can't all park in front of their property. Some people in popular areas may have to park blocks from their home currently; that doesn't change because of what's under the hood.

2. Even if a hotel is at max capacity, with everyone driving an EV, not everyone will get in at the same time so they won't all be charging at the same time, nor as it's pointed out will everyone need a charge every night. Also remember, overnight rates are less expensive in areas where they have time-metered rates because there's less people using power; most offices are closed & most people are asleep. Yes, we'll need more total electricity but not necessarily more peak electricity.
#1 is clearly an issue. It could be that big cities will be bastions of ICE infrastructure, or go headlong into widespread quick charging, or valet charging/parking services. It's likely going to be a slower and different implementation than in the suburbs, given the high cost of infrastructure changes.

#2 I like your point about not everyone needing a full charge every night. It may turn out to be a wash with day/night electric usage, which would make it easier to implement.
  #171  
Old 10-30-2019, 09:36 AM
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Thanks for this. Makes a great deal of sense.

I get really tired of hearing how a charger "costs $270,000" so therefore it is impossible for a hotel to put one in. NOBODY needs a level 3 supercharger for an overnight stay at a hotel.

I recently stayed in Vancouver at a downtown hotel - they had several 110V plugs in the underground parking and directed me to one. Then when I left, they waived the parking fee because I was driving an EV. Guess which hotel I am going back to, and which one I direct anyone with an EV to?
Based on what we've talked about in this thread I don't think a L2 charger will be an acceptable substitute for people who have range anxiety. The original scenario was someone with a 500 mile range who showed up to a hotel 90% drained and was able to charge over night. It looks like best performance of a L2 charger is 70 miles per hour so they would get a full charge in 7 hours but there would be no sharing and they would need one electrical port per space. But I think people are going to still have range anxiety if they drive for 6 hours and then stop for 7 hours. This would only work for people who are driving to a destination for their vacation but don't drive (less than 50 miles) once they get to their destination.

To beat range anxiety you're going to need to be able to either have virtually infinite miles and the ability to recharge them reasonably (anything more than 560 miles makes level 2 impractical) or they need to be able to add on miles quickly. In my mind either of those require super charger speeds.
  #172  
Old 10-30-2019, 10:49 AM
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Here's your EV:

1500km/900 mile range minimum
- Full charge in 10 minutes or less
- Inexpensive chargers located at home or on every block
- Can tow 15,000 pound Recreational Vehicle
- Can park in a small parking space
- Is able to haul 2000 pounds of hay
- Can operate as a self contained working van for plumbing contractor
- Costs under $10,000
- Suffers no loss of efficiency from -40 to +120, can travel through 10 feet of snow

If an EV can't do all that, then fuck it, they will never work.

Last edited by Euphonious Polemic; 10-30-2019 at 10:50 AM.
  #173  
Old 10-30-2019, 11:00 AM
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Based on what we've talked about in this thread I don't think a L2 charger will be an acceptable substitute for people who have range anxiety. The original scenario was someone with a 500 mile range who showed up to a hotel 90% drained and was able to charge over night. It looks like best performance of a L2 charger is 70 miles per hour so they would get a full charge in 7 hours but there would be no sharing and they would need one electrical port per space. But I think people are going to still have range anxiety if they drive for 6 hours and then stop for 7 hours. This would only work for people who are driving to a destination for their vacation but don't drive (less than 50 miles) once they get to their destination.

To beat range anxiety you're going to need to be able to either have virtually infinite miles and the ability to recharge them reasonably (anything more than 560 miles makes level 2 impractical) or they need to be able to add on miles quickly. In my mind either of those require super charger speeds.
Isn't that just the sort of thing the OP was initially complaining about? "Here's a hypothetical edge case where EVs might not be quite adequate, therefore something something." These "people who have range anxiety" of which you speak should just be viewed as irrelevant. As EVs make inroads into the market serving those portions of the populace who are already well-served by current offerings and the current level of infrastructure development, that infrastructure will continue to be expanded and EVs will continue to improve in performance until a huge portion of the public will find EVs entirely sufficient to their needs. There will remain a few niches where EVs legitimately won't have the required performance, and a few larger niches where EVs would be entirely adequate but stubborn people will insist they do not. There is no reason to attempt to address the concerns of the latter.

In your example, while a few people at a hotel might have need for supercharger-level speeds, that doesn't mean that hotels are going to have to plan for a supercharger bay for every room. L2 charging through most of their lot and a couple of faster stations (or even just proximity to third-party fast chargers) is likely to be perfectly adequate.
  #174  
Old 10-30-2019, 11:13 AM
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Also, Tesla normally doesn't sell its superchargers, so if it thinks there is a need for some at a hotel, it can pay for them and the installation costs. Or it can set up a bank of them in a spot near multiple hotels.

Plus as said above, only Tesla EVs can use the superchargers, so if I operated a hotel, I'd spend my money on chargers that can be used by various types of EVs.
  #175  
Old 10-30-2019, 12:33 PM
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Here's your EV:
-400 mile range minimum
- Full charge in 10 minutes or less
- Inexpensive chargers located at home or on every block

Yes, the above describes every single ICE vehicle. If you're argument is that EV are only useful for niche users then I guess I should move on from this thread. On the other hand if you are arguing that EV could receive widespread acceptance and be more than a niche short commute vehicle then if should have basic car functions.

I think range anxiety is a large reason that people are not buying the current crop of EVs. Most people drive for vacations in the US and most people don't like staying at a hotel within 8 hours of their house. So at a minimum to be useful for 25% of americans EVs need to be able to go 600 (8 x 70 with a 40 mile buffer) miles on a charge during normal vacation times like Christmas (when its cold), or they need to be able to fill up along the way in a reasonable time, or they need to be so cheap that the hassel of renting a car just for vacations is acceptable to people as a normal cost of owning an EV.

I'm not saying that people who either fly if its more than 3 hours or never leave their city are wrong to own EVs but I think that that is the niche use case and its why that only 2% of people find that use case a good fit for them. To expand that to 20% of the population EVs do need to be better then they are. If the range anxiety problem is solved and the median car price stays they same I would expect EVs to capture 80% of the market in 10 years.
  #176  
Old 10-30-2019, 12:39 PM
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Also, Tesla normally doesn't sell its superchargers, so if it thinks there is a need for some at a hotel, it can pay for them and the installation costs. Or it can set up a bank of them in a spot near multiple hotels.

Plus as said above, only Tesla EVs can use the superchargers, so if I operated a hotel, I'd spend my money on chargers that can be used by various types of EVs.
I was using super charger generically. You're right very few business like that would install a proprietary hardware and hope it meets their customers needs but I doubt Tesla is charging a huge markup on the superchargers and so the generic one is probably a very similar cost to buy.

I also agree the a supercharger station in the middle of a bunch of hotels is much more likely which is exactly what I was proposing.
  #177  
Old 10-30-2019, 12:41 PM
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-400 mile range minimum
- Full charge in 10 minutes or less
- Inexpensive chargers located at home or on every block

Yes, the above describes every single ICE vehicle.
you can fill your gas tank at home?
  #178  
Old 10-30-2019, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
Also, Tesla normally doesn't sell its superchargers, so if it thinks there is a need for some at a hotel, it can pay for them and the installation costs. Or it can set up a bank of them in a spot near multiple hotels.

Plus as said above, only Tesla EVs can use the superchargers, so if I operated a hotel, I'd spend my money on chargers that can be used by various types of EVs.
I was using super charger generically. You're right very few business like that would install a proprietary hardware and hope it meets their customers needs but I doubt Tesla is charging a huge markup on the superchargers and so the generic one is probably a very similar cost to buy.

I also agree the a supercharger station in the middle of a bunch of hotels is much more likely which is exactly what I was proposing.
You quoted a cost of $270,000 for a Tesla supercharger, which does sound like a ridiculous amount. Here is a stand-alone charger for $40,800. Even if you figure a few thousand more for installation costs, it's substantially less than the Tesla charger, and it can charge two cars at the same time. There are other, less expensive chargers at the same site.
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Old 10-30-2019, 12:53 PM
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There are a lot of people who live in rural areas, far from any gas station. It's not practical to insist they drive 10-20 miles just to fill up their tank. Therefore, ICE vehicles are too niche.
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Old 10-30-2019, 01:17 PM
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you can fill your gas tank at home?
Silly elitist! 100 percent of Americans who live above an Exxon can gas up at home.
  #181  
Old 10-30-2019, 01:18 PM
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Originally Posted by Dewey Finn View Post
You quoted a cost of $270,000 for a Tesla supercharger, which does sound like a ridiculous amount. Here is a stand-alone charger for $40,800. Even if you figure a few thousand more for installation costs, it's substantially less than the Tesla charger, and it can charge two cars at the same time. There are other, less expensive chargers at the same site.
I'm more than happy to be wrong about the cost of a super charger I just pulled it off of wiki I certainly haven't price checked the lowest cost way to build a L3 charging station it seems like a lot since you can build a gas station for $250k.
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Old 10-30-2019, 01:26 PM
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you can fill your gas tank at home?
Nope. Good catch. ICE vehicles do have to drive to a gas station. In my case its even almost a mile to get to a place I spend 10 minutes per week at. It would be silly for people to want to pay less for the inconvenience the EVs provide since they go home every single day no matter what. Oh, what that's not true? EVs need to be thousands of dollars cheaper due to filling up being less convenient.
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Old 10-30-2019, 01:29 PM
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There are a lot of people who live in rural areas, far from any gas station. It's not practical to insist they drive 10-20 miles just to fill up their tank. Therefore, ICE vehicles are too niche.
Well every farmer I know does have a diesel tank at home and some times that farm diesel just happens to slip into their road vehicles. But for some reason I though we weren't talking about niche use cases where the nearest gas stations were 10s of miles away. Again I concede EVs are great for niche uses as currently built.
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Old 10-30-2019, 01:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Oredigger77 View Post
Well every farmer I know does have a diesel tank at home and some times that farm diesel just happens to slip into their road vehicles. But for some reason I though we weren't talking about niche use cases where the nearest gas stations were 10s of miles away. Again I concede EVs are great for niche uses as currently built.
But your definition of niche differs for ICE versus EV. If EVs can't handle everything, they are niche. You don't use that same standard for ICE.
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Old 10-30-2019, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Oredigger77 View Post
Oh, what that's not true? EVs need to be thousands of dollars cheaper due to filling up being less convenient.
WTF? Why are you linking to a study from 7 years ago discussing the comparative availability of CNG fuel service stations?

You do realize that suburban homeowners will charge up at home. They will plug their cars in at home, and wouldn't need to visit a "filling station" more than once every couple of months. Seriously, if you filled up your ICE car at your house every single night how often would you go to a gas station?

Right now, today, EV are niche vehicles, the ranges and charging options are not robust enough for widespread acceptance. But this is a dynamically changing field, and it won't be long before these issues are solved well enough to satisfy a large segment of the population.
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Old 10-30-2019, 02:00 PM
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You do realize that suburban homeowners will charge up at home. They will plug their cars in at home, and wouldn't need to visit a "filling station" more than once every couple of months. Seriously, if you filled up your ICE car at your house every single night how often would you go to a gas station?
Imagine the discussion if EVs were the standard today, and ICE was the new tech. "OK, today you basically never have to go anywhere to fill your car, it's just full every morning. If you go on a long road trip, it fills while you eat lunch. But now with ICE engines, you have to stop at a special filling station a few times a week and pump some explosive, smelly liquid into your car. Hopefully you'll have a filling station within a few miles of you, but not always."
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Old 10-30-2019, 02:10 PM
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But your definition of niche differs for ICE versus EV. If EVs can't handle everything, they are niche. You don't use that same standard for ICE.
What are you talking about clearly ICE vehicles meet 98% of drivers needs. I'm comfortable saying that isn't a niche use case. I guess we should come up with the definition of niche. Do EVs need to meet a minimum percent of cars on the road to not be niche any more. I would suggest a floor of 26% of total vehicles on the road since that is where sedans are and major manufacturers are saying they are no longer worth producing. Maybe we can build a use case that will meet 1/3 of americans since EVs are part of the sedan, suv and truck market?
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Old 10-30-2019, 02:16 PM
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Imagine the discussion if EVs were the standard today, and ICE was the new tech. "OK, today you basically never have to go anywhere to fill your car, it's just full every morning. If you go on a long road trip, it fills while you eat lunch. But now with ICE engines, you have to stop at a special filling station a few times a week and pump some explosive, smelly liquid into your car. Hopefully you'll have a filling station within a few miles of you, but not always."
"Wow, now I don't have to pay to park at a charging station since my apartment didn't want to shell out the millions for charging stations, and I don't have to wait over half an hour to charge on the road if I don't need to? Too bad about the price, even though the car is cheaper itself, the $.75 a gallon is pretty steep (the gas never got pumped out of the ground in the first place) so I'll have to think about it."
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Old 10-30-2019, 02:19 PM
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In the imaginary world in which EVs are the incumbent, ICE vehicles would almost certainly be more expensive. And charging stations wouldn't cost "millions" for an apartment building. Instead Level 1 or Level 2 chargers would in the building from the original construction.
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Old 10-30-2019, 02:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Cheesesteak View Post
WTF? Why are you linking to a study from 7 years ago discussing the comparative availability of CNG fuel service stations?

You do realize that suburban homeowners will charge up at home. They will plug their cars in at home, and wouldn't need to visit a "filling station" more than once every couple of months. Seriously, if you filled up your ICE car at your house every single night how often would you go to a gas station?

Right now, today, EV are niche vehicles, the ranges and charging options are not robust enough for widespread acceptance. But this is a dynamically changing field, and it won't be long before these issues are solved well enough to satisfy a large segment of the population.
I was trying to show that the convenience of filling up has a value. Currently EVs don't offer that. I think having to stop for 8 hours is a major disincentive to getting an EV. If I was able to fill up to full at home every night and I had a 200 mile range like current EVs I would have to fill up on the fly once per week and every day 4 weeks per year.

You are correct that the EV market is changing dramatically and I think 2021 will lead to a large uptick in EV ownership but I don't think it will get the total percentage of EV usage out of the 26% range I'm currently using to define niche in fact I don't think it'll get us over 10%. It looks like my family's use case will fall into the range where a $70k EV will be acceptable but most people can't afford that.

I think rapid charging being widely available (it isn't possible to put a supercharger at most homes so long term I don't think home charging is a solution) and that just like ICE cars a 300-400 mile range is standard will be necessary for widespread EV acceptance (>30%).
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Old 10-30-2019, 02:29 PM
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"Wow, now I don't have to pay to park at a charging station since my apartment didn't want to shell out the millions for charging stations, and I don't have to wait over half an hour to charge on the road if I don't need to? Too bad about the price, even though the car is cheaper itself, the $.75 a gallon is pretty steep (the gas never got pumped out of the ground in the first place) so I'll have to think about it."
Again, you are imagining a world in which there is minimal infrastructure built to support EVs, and comparing it to the current world where there is incredible infrastructure built around supporting ICE. You are correct that EVs cannot be widely supported if the infrastructure doesn't change from today, but that's not what anyone is arguing.
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Old 10-30-2019, 02:31 PM
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I think rapid charging being widely available (it isn't possible to put a supercharger at most homes so long term I don't think home charging is a solution) and that just like ICE cars a 300-400 mile range is standard will be necessary for widespread EV acceptance (>30%).
Literally nobody needs supercharging at home. It's an absurd misunderstanding of how EVs are different. It's as silly as saying that ICE owners need a gas station at home.
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Old 10-30-2019, 02:31 PM
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In the imaginary world in which EVs are the incumbent, ICE vehicles would almost certainly be more expensive. And charging stations wouldn't cost "millions" for an apartment building. Instead Level 1 or Level 2 chargers would in the building from the original construction.
Of course it's millions, at $6000 a pop times hundreds of occupants, which doesn't even count the metering costs. If you want replace that part of the complaint with "my apartment complex didn't want to shell out the millions for additional charging stations once the two-car family became standard."
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Old 10-30-2019, 02:37 PM
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Of course it's millions, at $6000 a pop times hundreds of occupants, which doesn't even count the metering costs. If you want replace that part of the complaint with "my apartment complex didn't want to shell out the millions for additional charging stations once the two-car family became standard."
Why on earth would an apartment block install anything more than a 240V outlet per parking spot at a cost of a few hundred per pop?

Apartments in northern climes already have parking lots with 110V outlets as a matter of course (for block heaters). Somehow they manage to get by.
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Old 10-30-2019, 03:35 PM
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Originally Posted by Oredigger77 View Post
I was trying to show that the convenience of filling up has a value. Currently EVs don't offer that.
People with EV's fill up in their own garages while they sleep. Hard to get more convenient access than your own garage.
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If I was able to fill up to full at home every night and I had a 200 mile range like current EVs I would have to fill up on the fly once per week and every day 4 weeks per year.
Agreed, 200 miles isn't enough range. How does this calculus change with a 500 mile range?
Quote:
I think rapid charging being widely available (it isn't possible to put a supercharger at most homes so long term I don't think home charging is a solution) and that just like ICE cars a 300-400 mile range is standard will be necessary for widespread EV acceptance (>30%).
I believe rapid charging is a niche solution*, while longer range (500mi) and overnight charging is the broad solution to drive wide acceptance of EV.


*Niche as in it needs to exist, but will not ever be the typical way one would recharge an EV. EV owners have a filling station in their garage, as long as their range is enough for their normal driving pattern, they never have to fill up outside the home. The only time they have to fill up somewhere else is when they go beyond normal driving, it's the unusual trip that requires rapid charging.
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Old 10-30-2019, 03:38 PM
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From what I've found, rapid charging reduces battery life and capacity, so, if true, it's something to avoid if possible.
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Old 10-30-2019, 04:21 PM
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At Seatac airport parking they have spots you can plug in (110 volts) for as long as you’re there. No additional charge. It takes me 30 hours to fully charge after my 62 mile trip to airport. There is a supercharger at the cell phone lot for those in need
Wait a second. 30 hours to recharge after a 62 mile drive? Is your battery totally depleted at that point? Is that linear, i.e., driving one mile takes 30 minutes to recharge to 100%? Does that mean back when I had a 15-mile commute each way, I would have had have to recharge my car for 15 hours each night?, And if I had to drive to a meeting or run errands that added another 6 miles to the trip, I couldn't even fully recharge my car before I had to drive to work again?
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Old 10-30-2019, 04:21 PM
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Why on earth would an apartment block install anything more than a 240V outlet per parking spot at a cost of a few hundred per pop?

Apartments in northern climes already have parking lots with 110V outlets as a matter of course (for block heaters). Somehow they manage to get by.
This. I installed a charging station in my garage. It's wasn't very expensive -- the cost of a new outlet plus about $100 for the port. Apartment buildings install stoves, air conditioners, etc. Lots have been retrofitted for AC, even. Installing some charging stations in the parking garage is a lot cheaper than installing AC in the units.
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Old 10-30-2019, 04:25 PM
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Wait a second. 30 hours to recharge after a 62 mile drive? Is your battery totally depleted at that point? Is that linear, i.e., driving one mile takes 30 minutes to recharge to 100%? Does that mean back when I had a 15-mile commute each way, I would have had have to recharge my car for 15 hours each night?, And if I had to drive to a meeting or run errands that added another 6 miles to the trip, I couldn't even fully recharge my car before I had to drive to work again?
Yes, with a 110 outlet. At home it’s less than 4 hours. Most days I’m fully charged in two hours or less.

I just checked my app, I have 7 hours, 57 minutes to full charge at the airport. But it’s free.
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Old 10-30-2019, 05:10 PM
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People with EV's fill up in their own garages while they sleep. Hard to get more convenient access than your own garage.
Agreed, 200 miles isn't enough range. How does this calculus change with a 500 mile range?I believe rapid charging is a niche solution*, while longer range (500mi) and overnight charging is the broad solution to drive wide acceptance of EV.


*Niche as in it needs to exist, but will not ever be the typical way one would recharge an EV. EV owners have a filling station in their garage, as long as their range is enough for their normal driving pattern, they never have to fill up outside the home. The only time they have to fill up somewhere else is when they go beyond normal driving, it's the unusual trip that requires rapid charging.
Several people brought up the same point but I'll address yours. Home charging doesn't work with longer range EVs. We already went through it in post 100. The best home charging is 44 miles per hour.

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Originally Posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
And if you really need it, you can get a hard-wired installation that will charge at 48 amps. That's 44 miles per hour
Assuming a 500 mile charge that's 11 hours to a full charge. So now your home system is no longer convenient to give you a full charge or at least I don't know too many families that are home for that long every night. We are homebodies in our circle and we're only home 12 hours per work day. Sure you're probably topping off from your 200 miles per driving on a usual day but if you are prepping for a trip or had one of those long days of driving now were talking days to recover.

For me 400 miles will cover most of my day trips since my 700 mile/day days are done. I would still fill up away from home 4 weeks a year but it would probably only on days I had a late night followed by an early morning (get home at 10 Friday night after a 300 mile day and be up at 3 am to go hunting) that I would need to fill up locally maybe 4-5 times per year.

I think the 500 mile range is the minimum to be viable for road trips though as I showed earlier most people prefer to stay in hotels at least 8 hours from their home so 600 is probably better minimum with filling up at your destination. Then we run into the problem of slow charging again if we're filling up a 600 mile range at 44 miles/hour you're stuck at your hotel for 13 hours that is a significant change to how most people vacation.

As I mentioned I'd want to get 400 miles in 20 minutes but for a larger number of use cases I think charging would have to improve to 600 miles in 8 hours or close to 100 amps at 240V.
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