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Old 10-29-2019, 07:51 AM
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U.K. General Election December 2019


Well, it looks like itís a done deal since Corbyn has agreed to back a general election in December. Iím disappointed but not surprised. Corbyn has always been a leaver at heart.

Itís far too early for predictions and Labour did outperform back in 2017. Maybe the Brexit Party will run candidates to help muck things up. Thereís times I think Farage doesnít really want to leave, he just wants the EU to blame for everything.

This should be interesting.
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Old 10-29-2019, 08:01 AM
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Hopefully the slogan 'Johnson wants to sell the NHS to Trump' will be sued as often as possible...
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Old 10-29-2019, 08:06 AM
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Freudian slip?
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Old 10-29-2019, 08:37 AM
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2014: Scottish Independence Referendum
2015: General Election
2016: Brexit Referendum
2017: General Election
2018: _________
2019: General Election


Woo-hoo! After the inexplicable lapse of 2018, let the festival of democracy recommence! More voting, more campaigns, more leaflets, more doorstepping, more debates, more ads, more arguments, more, more, more. If there's one thing we love in Britain, it's yet another vote.
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Old 10-29-2019, 11:47 AM
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Well, it looks like itís a done deal since Corbyn has agreed to back a general election in December. Iím disappointed but not surprised. Corbyn has always been a leaver at heart.

Itís far too early for predictions and Labour did outperform back in 2017. Maybe the Brexit Party will run candidates to help muck things up. Thereís times I think Farage doesnít really want to leave, he just wants the EU to blame for everything.

This should be interesting.
I think the general election will happen, but the election bill has to pass through a significant amount of squabbling before the general election is guaranteed. Right now, theyíre debating whether or not to extend the voting franchise to 16 & 17 year olds and UK resident EU citizens. Unless I missed something, they still havenít settled on a date for the vote. Someoneís bound to try adding a second referendum amendment. Itís entirely possible that a ďcompromiseĒ election bill will be put forward that turns out to be a bill that no one wants. Pretty much the story of this Parliament. So stay tuned, but donít go out buying any election night party supplies just yet.
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Old 10-29-2019, 12:50 PM
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I think the general election will happen, but the election bill has to pass through a significant amount of squabbling before the general election is guaranteed. Right now, theyíre debating whether or not to extend the voting franchise to 16 & 17 year olds and UK resident EU citizens. Unless I missed something, they still havenít settled on a date for the vote. Someoneís bound to try adding a second referendum amendment. Itís entirely possible that a ďcompromiseĒ election bill will be put forward that turns out to be a bill that no one wants. Pretty much the story of this Parliament. So stay tuned, but donít go out buying any election night party supplies just yet.
Well, I live in the USA under Trump and thereís always alcohol in my apartment. Those are all the election night party supplies I need
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Old 10-29-2019, 05:27 PM
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Well, I live in the USA under Trump and thereís always alcohol in my apartment. Those are all the election night party supplies I need
Well get the bunting, the beers and the bingo cards ready, the election's been called for 12 December.
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Old 10-29-2019, 11:25 PM
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I'm honestly not sure what I even think would be a good outcome here. Maybe a Labour minority Government with the Lib Dems and SNP to keep them honest?
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Old 10-30-2019, 12:09 AM
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I'm honestly not sure what I even think would be a good outcome here. Maybe a Labour minority Government with the Lib Dems and SNP to keep them honest?
I think the problem is that both of the major parties are suffering at the moment, from extremely poor political leadership. This isn't a problem that can be solved by a general election. The best outcome may well be a cantankerous hung parliament, which might ameliorate the situation by limiting the damage that could be done by the leadership of either party, if it commanded a secure majority in a docile parliament (as is normal in the UK system).
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Old 10-30-2019, 05:20 AM
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The best outcome may well be a cantankerous hung parliament, which might ameliorate the situation by limiting the damage that could be done by the leadership of either party, if it commanded a secure majority in a docile parliament (as is normal in the UK system).
If it weren't for the issue of Brexit, that might be good, but at some point in the very near future we need decisive action taken. The deadline is now about 7 weeks after the election, and another useless hung Parliament like the current one will be unlikely to do anything about it. Really, the only options are leave at the end of January if the Tories win, end up with No Deal if Corbyn wins as he'll dither and faff and wonder why the usual bully-boy union leader tactics aren't working with the EU, or the faint hope that the Lib Dems and the SNP hold enough of the balance of power to actually do something.

Much as I dislike the SNPs rhetoric and policies, they have shown that they're effective in government.
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Old 10-30-2019, 06:50 AM
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Really, the only options are leave at the end of January if the Tories win, end up with No Deal if Corbyn wins as he'll dither and faff and wonder why the usual bully-boy union leader tactics aren't working with the EU, or the faint hope that the Lib Dems and the SNP hold enough of the balance of power to actually do something.
Complete and utter garbage. Corbyn has proposed a deal which is essentially a customs union put to a confirmatory referendum with remain as an option, with no deal not being considered a position at all.
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Old 10-30-2019, 06:55 AM
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Complete and utter garbage. Corbyn has proposed a deal which is essentially a customs union put to a confirmatory referendum with remain as an option, with no deal not being considered a position at all.
Corbyn will not get that deal. The EU will expect him to get the deal they have agreed through Parliament.
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Old 10-30-2019, 06:59 AM
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Corbyn will not get that deal. The EU will expect him to get the deal they have agreed through Parliament.
They will expect him (And he will) To add the caveat of a customs union on that deal for the whole of the UK. They're not going to reject it, that's even on the basis that the public don't back remain in a confirmatory vote.
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Old 10-30-2019, 07:12 AM
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It took Corbyn several months to "negotiate" a general election with a minority government who actually wanted one. The idea that he is capable of negotiating an acceptable deal with the EU, even if they do go back on their word and reopen talks, is laughable.
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Old 10-30-2019, 08:44 AM
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It took Corbyn several months to "negotiate" a general election with a minority government who actually wanted one. The idea that he is capable of negotiating an acceptable deal with the EU, even if they do go back on their word and reopen talks, is laughable.
And that doesn't even begin to address the fact that such a deal is even more anathema to leave voters than the one Boris has cooked up. If The UK is not free to make its own trade deals then in no meaningful way is that "leaving the EU". Who would vote for that?

That may be Labour's plan of course but I'm not sure the word "plan" and "labour" go together.

Ultimately, Tories offer their specific deal, Brexit Party offer no deal, Lib Dem Offer remain. All of those three also offer certainty and a quick(ish) end to this phase of the process. Labour offer uncertainty, confusion and a continuation of the pain.

I predict big gains to Lib Dems, I've heard labour remainers and previous brexiters saying they will swap to Lib Dems and I'm sorely tempted if they can describe exactly what they will do to change the EU from within.
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Old 10-30-2019, 09:24 AM
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I predict big gains to Lib Dems, I've heard labour remainers and previous brexiters saying they will swap to Lib Dems and I'm sorely tempted if they can describe exactly what they will do to change the EU from within.
While I agree that LibDems could see a considerable upswing from remainers/former Labour voting centrists like myself, I think it's going to be much more tactical than that. I'm a former Labour member and current voter, can't stand Corbyn, have toyed with the LibDems but then I look at my constituency results from last time and can see the Tory's slipping in if we split the vote between Labour and LibDems. So I may have to hold my nose and vote Labour.
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Old 10-30-2019, 09:53 AM
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While I agree that LibDems could see a considerable upswing from remainers/former Labour voting centrists like myself, I think it's going to be much more tactical than that. I'm a former Labour member and current voter, can't stand Corbyn, have toyed with the LibDems but then I look at my constituency results from last time and can see the Tory's slipping in if we split the vote between Labour and LibDems. So I may have to hold my nose and vote Labour.
It's attitudes like that that stop third partyies being a worthwhile vote. If you agree with their views, vote for them. As their share of the vote goes up, more people will vote for them in the future, and they have a realistic chance of winning.

This is helped this time round by the fact that neither Corbyn nor Johnson is remotely palatable as a leader. As Novelty Bobble said, Labour have no consistent and coherent Brexit policy. Their other policies are also uncosted, backwards-looking, and only semi-coherent at best.

Whilst I think that with their current policies both the Tories and Labour will damage the country, I believe the Tories will damage it more slowly, making it easier to recover from it if ever a moderate Government comes back.

For all those reasons, I'll again vote Lib Dem. They're unlikely to win here, although it's a bit unpredictable what will happen - I'm in Soubry's constituency and the only thing that's certain is that she'll struggle to get into the hundreds of votes if she even bothers to stand.
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Old 10-30-2019, 10:32 AM
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Also, breaking news - Dick Braine has resigned as UKIP leader!
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Old 10-30-2019, 11:07 AM
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Labour have no consistent and coherent Brexit policy. Their other policies are also uncosted, backwards-looking, and only semi-coherent at best.
And the biggest elephant in the room is that their flagship policies and investment commitments are completely at odds with the sort of Brexit deal they are purported to favour.
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Old 10-30-2019, 11:29 AM
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Corbyn will not get that deal. The EU will expect him to get the deal they have agreed through Parliament.
The EU will accept an UK-EU customs union in an instant. Itís an all-win no-lose prospect for them. It solves the Ireland/Northern Ireland trade border issue, letís them set the UKís tariff and import regulation policies, eliminates future border inspection costs, and sends a message to any other country thinking about leaving the EU that theyíll only get halfway out of the exit. For the UK, itís a mixed bag. Solving the Ireland/Northern Ireland trade border issue is a big win, and a customs union would help in maintaining existing trade relationships with the EU countries and support the export market. However, it would inhibit future UK trade agreements with non-EU countries who wanted different tariffs or import regulations than currently exist. Protectionist policies that the UK currently abides by, but doesnít benefit from would have to be maintained. And the UK would have a very limited input on future customs policy. Basically, itís an anti-business, anti-Brexit policy that I suppose appeals to the Labour leadership, but is a worse policy than the current withdrawal agreement.
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Old 10-30-2019, 12:40 PM
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It's attitudes like that that stop third partyies being a worthwhile vote. If you agree with their views, vote for them. As their share of the vote goes up, more people will vote for them in the future, and they have a realistic chance of winning.
Well sadly, as long have we have first past the post, that's the situation we're stuck with. I won't vote for LibDems if it means gifting the Tories a majority. It clearly isn't ideal or noble, but it is practical.
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Old 10-30-2019, 02:47 PM
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I'm honestly not sure what I even think would be a good outcome here. Maybe a Labour minority Government with the Lib Dems and SNP to keep them honest?
My guess at this point is a minority Labour government as well. The Conservatives have led the government since 2010, and havenít led it very well since early 2016. Periodic switching of governments is part of the UK political cycle, and I think the current cycle has run its course. However, I think the election will depend greatly on the positions the Brexit Party and the Liberal Democrats take, and how the Conservatives respond.

The Brexit Party is obviously going to be trumpeting for a no-deal Brexit. The question is whether they run as a single issue party, or try to become the party of the hard right. They may think their best chance is to adopt a nationalist, populist platform which would take over a chunk of voters inclined to vote Conservative. The question for the Conservatives then, is do they concede that ground and persist as the ďOne NationĒ party theyíre currently claiming to be, or do they come out as hard right as well, likely losing centrist voters.

That then brings up the Liberal Democrats, who are the steadfast Remain party. They wonít campaign as single issue, so will they adopt a centrist platform or a left wing one? If the Brexit Party and the Conservatives are fighting it out for the right, and the Liberal Democrats take a chunk out of the centre, then Labour has their historic support, plus the left. I donít think that will get them a majority, but it could give them the leading number of seats, or at least enough seats to form a government with the support of other parties. However, since their party conference, the Lib Dems have been coming across as more activist. They may try to go after Labour votes, especially in metropolitan areas, on issues such as the environment, protecting workers rights, and increased government spending. The Conservatives best chance is if they can get their traditional votes, plus the centre while Labour and the Lib Dems split the left.

The other factor is the Scottish National Party, who are likely to do very well. I donít think thereís going to be a single Scottish Conservative MP after the election, and I think Labour will also lose a few Scottish seats. The SNP will probably support the Labour Party in government, and unless the Conservatives get very lucky by winning lots of four-way splits in England, thatís likely to make the difference.
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Old 10-30-2019, 05:11 PM
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It took Corbyn several months to "negotiate" a general election with a minority government who actually wanted one. The idea that he is capable of negotiating an acceptable deal with the EU, even if they do go back on their word and reopen talks, is laughable.
What's laughable is the comparison of negotiations between a government which has cynically engineered this election for their own advantage to the lengthy discussions between the UK and EU.
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Old 10-30-2019, 06:24 PM
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What's laughable is the comparison of negotiations between a government which has cynically engineered this election for their own advantage to the lengthy discussions between the UK and EU.
And yet it still took Corbyn months...
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Old 10-30-2019, 08:38 PM
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And yet it still took Corbyn months...
Negotiating with politicians who wanted to engineer an election to their own advantage?
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Old 10-30-2019, 09:43 PM
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It took Corbyn several months to "negotiate" a general election with a minority government who actually wanted one. The idea that he is capable of negotiating an acceptable deal with the EU, even if they do go back on their word and reopen talks, is laughable.
I don't think this makes any sense. Corbyn wasn't attempting to "negotiate" a general election. He was in a position to block a general election that Johnson wanted, and he chose to block it (until now) because he reckoned that doing so would be to his advantage. There may be reasons for doubting Corbyn's negotiating skills, but this is certainly not one of them.

As for whether he can negotiate a new deal with the EU, he can certainly try. True, the EU have said they will not reopen the deal they agreed with Johnson but, then, they said exactly the same about the deal they negotiated with May. I think there's two points to bear in mind here:

1. "We won't reopen this deal" is (among other things) a stance designed to strengthen the hand of the government that negotiated it in their attempts to get Parliament to approve it. To that extent, the EU has no motivate to adopt, or stick to, that stance when dealing with a new government that didn't negotiate the deal and isn't trying to get parliament to approve it. (Which is why the EU didn't maintain the stance when Johnson wanted to revise May's deal.)

2. The EU wants a deal, very much, but faced with a new government that doesn't want to ratify Johnson's deal and instead wants to negotiate a new deal that will be more attractive from the EU's point of view, the EU would be mad to force a no-deal Brexit rather than grant an extension to explore a new and better deal. Doubly so if the new government has done the blindingly obvious thing, Teresa, and secured parliamentary endorsement for its negotiating position and its targetted outcomes before it negotiates with the EU. And if one side in this sorry affair has been characterised by madness, it's not the EU.

So, yeah. If (that's very big "if") the election returns a Corbyn-led (or indeed anyone-led) government that secures parliamentary backing for a negotiating position that seeks a closer relationship with the EU, the EU will extend to allow negotiations for a new deal.

And, in the worst case, even if they don't, the new government still doesn't have to go for a no-deal Brexit. They can ask parliament to approve Johnson's deal, or to submit Johnson's deal to a referendum, with "remain" as the alternative. (The EU would unquestionably allow an extension for that referendum.)
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Old 10-31-2019, 05:06 PM
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While I agree that LibDems could see a considerable upswing from remainers/former Labour voting centrists like myself, I think it's going to be much more tactical than that. I'm a former Labour member and current voter, can't stand Corbyn, have toyed with the LibDems but then I look at my constituency results from last time and can see the Tory's slipping in if we split the vote between Labour and LibDems. So I may have to hold my nose and vote Labour.
Not Bristol West by any chance (seem to remember you're from round these parts)? If so, I'm in a very similar position.
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Old 10-31-2019, 06:07 PM
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Trump doing Corbyn a big favour with an interview on a UK radio station saying that Corbyn would be a disaster for a Britain.

Of course it’s a disgrace that he’s trying to interfere with another country’s election, although Obama tried to weigh in on the EU referendum.
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Old 10-31-2019, 10:52 PM
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I predict another hung parliament. I could see the Tories losing most if not all their seats outside England, which I'm sure would do wonders for British national unity.

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Old 10-31-2019, 10:55 PM
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Trump doing Corbyn a big favour with an interview on a UK radio station saying that Corbyn would be a disaster for a Britain.

Of course itís a disgrace that heís trying to interfere with another countryís election, although Obama tried to weigh in on the EU referendum.
Obama also interfered in the recent Canadian election.
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Old 10-31-2019, 11:32 PM
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Obama also interfered in the recent Canadian election.
Less of an issue, perhaps, now that he's just a (particularly well-known) private citizen, rather than a US public official. The Straight Dope is full of people expressing often strong views on elections in countries of which they are not citizens.
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Old 11-01-2019, 03:50 AM
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I wonder if there's a percentage of people who voted leave years ago and are looking around and thinking "ah the hell with it" and would vote remain just to go back to some kind of normal .....
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Old 11-01-2019, 04:01 AM
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I wonder if there's a percentage of people who voted leave years ago and are looking around and thinking "ah the hell with it" and would vote remain just to go back to some kind of normal .....
Opinion polls have suggested for quite a time that there is, but probably not enough for the kind of thumping majority that would put the issue to bed. And somewhere I saw some that were all over the place, depending on exactly how the question was worded
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Old 11-01-2019, 04:32 AM
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I wonder if there's a percentage of people who voted leave years ago and are looking around and thinking "ah the hell with it" and would vote remain just to go back to some kind of normal .....
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Opinion polls have suggested for quite a time that there is, but probably not enough for the kind of thumping majority that would put the issue to bed. And somewhere I saw some that were all over the place, depending on exactly how the question was worded
This was true at one time, but I think for over a year now pretty much all the opinion polls, no matter how the question is worded, show a signficant (as in, statistically significant) majority in favour of remaining. Note that the 2016 vote was very close (52:48), so it doesn't take a huge shift to convert a Leave majority into a Remain majority.

We can't assume that this shift is because people want a quiet life, and think Brexit is proving just too much trouble. That may be the case for some but others may have concluded, in light of the exerience of the last three years, that the vision of Brexit sold to them in 2016, on the basis of which they voted to leave, was either unrealistic or downright dishonest, and that no actually deliverable form of Brexit is desirable.

The shift in preference may also be accounted for, at least in part, by demographics. A material proportion of voters today were too young to vote in 2016, and a material proportion of those who voted in 2016 have since died. Studies suggest that a preference for leave was markedly age-correlated so, unless we assume or have evidence that people get more brexity as they age, we might think that the simple passage of time would tend to favour the remain vote.
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Old 11-01-2019, 06:06 AM
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I don't disagree with any of that, but it would take a majority like 1975 to really draw the sting. 52:48 the other way is just going to add to the poison. Plus I'm not sure, much as I regret it, that there's a strong enough demand for a second referendum.
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Old 11-01-2019, 10:57 AM
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Trump doing Corbyn a big favour with an interview on a UK radio station saying that Corbyn would be a disaster for a Britain.

Of course itís a disgrace that heís trying to interfere with another countryís election...
Yes, but he keeps his interferences as "effective" as this some of us would like it that he'll keep trying.

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I can't stand Corbyn [...] I may have to hold my nose and vote Labour.
I'm in the same boat. Is the stench of Trump's endorsement (of Boris Johnson and Farage!) going to overwhelm the Corbyn smell?
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Old 11-03-2019, 08:59 PM
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I don't disagree with any of that, but it would take a majority like 1975 to really draw the sting. 52:48 the other way is just going to add to the poison. Plus I'm not sure, much as I regret it, that there's a strong enough demand for a second referendum.
There's a persistent misconception in the UK that a referendum is a kind of Harry Potter-like incantation that will miraculously resolve political differences and produce a decision that commands a substantial public consensus.

It isn't. A referendum is just one more way of making a decision, and it has no magical effects that other decision-making methods lack.

It may serve to reveal that a particular course of action does command the support of a substantial majority, and that revelation may lead those who oppose it to accept that their opposition cannot prevail and so to give up the struggle.

But, conversely, it may reveal that a particular course of action does not command the support of a substantial majority, but only a bare majority, and that even that bare majority has only been assembled by being deliberately vague about the proposed course of action. Such a revelation, far from discouraging those of the opposite view, will encourage them to redouble their efforts.
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Old 11-06-2019, 08:13 AM
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Not Bristol West by any chance (seem to remember you're from round these parts)? If so, I'm in a very similar position.
There's posh .... no, Bristol South (Southville to be precise). It often feels like Bristol is a lone red island stranded in a shark invested blue sea.
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Old 11-06-2019, 03:14 PM
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Tom Watson quits as deputy Labour leader and won’t stand. Labour has gone completely off the rails. Corbyn’s purification is almost complete now. Too bad he won’t be leader and held to account for his disgusting narcissism and purity.
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Old 11-06-2019, 03:23 PM
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Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
Tom Watson quits as deputy Labour leader and wonít stand. Labour has gone completely off the rails. Corbynís purification is almost complete now. Too bad he wonít be leader and held to account for his disgusting narcissism and purity.
They could have been capitalising on Rees Mogg's quotes and Cairns' resignation, but they have managed to shoot themselves in the foot. It seems like they're in a competition to see who can fuck up the campaign the most. It reminds me of the American election in 2016.
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:29 PM
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Originally Posted by dalej42 View Post
Tom Watson quits as deputy Labour leader and wonít stand. Labour has gone completely off the rails. Corbynís purification is almost complete now. Too bad he wonít be leader and held to account for his disgusting narcissism and purity.
He's still alot better than Boris. Tom Watson repeatedly sniped and leaked information about party rifts in an effort to undermine Corbyn. I'm glad he's gone.
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Old 11-07-2019, 11:39 AM
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So the Lib Dems have decided not to field a candidate to oppose Soubry, inexplicably. No way I'll be voting for her after she's abandoned the constituency to become a TV personality, so that leaves Green party or spoiling my ballot...
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Old 11-07-2019, 11:44 AM
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So the Lib Dems have decided not to field a candidate to oppose Soubry, inexplicably. No way I'll be voting for her after she's abandoned the constituency to become a TV personality, so that leaves Green party or spoiling my ballot...
Then vote Green.
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Old 11-07-2019, 11:48 AM
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Then vote Green.
Maybe. I tend not to like voting for extremists though.
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Old 11-07-2019, 12:37 PM
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Corbyn’s cult is in full Twitter troll mode. I could tweet about liking to kick puppies and that would get less hostile responses than saying something that might be construed as slightly critical of Saint Jeremy.
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Old 11-07-2019, 04:58 PM
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Corbynís cult is in full Twitter troll mode. I could tweet about liking to kick puppies and that would get less hostile responses than saying something that might be construed as slightly critical of Saint Jeremy.
Where?
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Old 11-08-2019, 01:25 PM
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CNN: Russia accused of UK infiltration
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UK lawmakers were told that Moscow infiltrated the UK establishment and governments turned a blind eye, sources tell CNN
...
Russia's influence reaches deep into the British establishment and successive UK governments have turned a blind eye to it, lawmakers were warned, according to multiple sources familiar with testimony given to a parliamentary inquiry.

Members of the cross-party Intelligence and Security Committee (ISC) were told that Moscow built up a network of friendly British diplomats, lawyers, parliamentarians and other influencers from across the political spectrum. One witness described the development as "potentially the most significant threat to the UK's institutions and its ways of life," according to testimony seen by CNN.

The committee's unpublished final report into Russian meddling in UK politics, titled simply "Russia," is at the center of a storm in the UK, where parliament was dissolved on Wednesday ahead of a general election in December. The committee's chairman, Dominic Grieve, has accused Prime Minister Boris Johnson of sitting on the report and claimed Downing Street had given "bogus" explanations for not publishing it.
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Old 11-08-2019, 08:21 PM
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the UK establishment and governments turned a blind eye
Wouldn't be the first time this happened. The establishment is beyond contempt.
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Last edited by Ryan_Liam; 11-08-2019 at 08:24 PM.
  #49  
Old 11-11-2019, 08:31 AM
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Biggish news:

UKIP The Brexit Party will not be standing in any seats currently held by Tories. (Including those where the incumbent MP is standing down to be replaced by a new Tory candidate).

Farage has basically bottled it. Last week he was making big demands about the guarantees he'd need about Brexit before he'd contemplate not running in every seat. Now he's folded like the proverbial cheap suit. The polls were no encouragement to him - BXP support has been falling steadily. His gloss on this is that it helps ensure a pro-Brexit majority.

It probably does! Incumbent Tories don't have to worry about their vote splitting, leaving the campaign free to focus resources on the marginals it needs to win. More importantly, it allows for a cleaner message: "We are the only party of Brexit" - at least in those seats, and realistically (even though both Tories and BXP will be challenging Labour-held marginals) across the country as well.

There is still some prospect that split votes in the seats the Tories need to win will be a barrier to them increasing the number of seats they hold, but this is basically good news for the Tories and bad news for Labour and the Lib Dems - especially if they fail to co-ordinate in any way and split each others votes.
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Old 11-11-2019, 06:22 PM
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Of course it also allows the Brexit party to concentrate all of their resources in the non-Tory seats which will make it harder for the Tories to make gains. They can’t pull all their resources from existing Tory seats but the Brexit party can.

I think that maybe Farage is hoping for a Conservative minority government or just a slim majority which allows the hard Brexiters to retain their influence (which they’d lose in a Tory landslide).
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