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Old 11-05-2019, 10:08 AM
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Election Day 2019. Will today's results show how things are trending for next year?


Today is Election Day for the off year races. There are three states that I will be watching tonight. The big show is in Virginia, where all the seats in both their lower and upper chambers are up for election. There are also gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi.

In Virginia it seems the Democrats are slightly favored to win both houses, which would be important for them given that the post census redistricting will be done by the legislators that are elected today. This may also be a bellwether for how the country is leaning going into next year's election.

There are also gubernatorial races in Kentucky and Mississippi, which are likely to go Republican, though possibly by a lower margin than expected for deep red states.

Are their any of you all in these states? What are your guesses about the results and opinions on the races? Will the results indicate how the country is leaning heading into next year's election?

My prediction is that the Democrats will sweep both chambers in Virginia and Republicans will win in Kentucky and Mississippi.
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:36 AM
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I live in Kentucky. Just outside of Louisville. I've already been out and voted. It's been a highly contested gubernatorial race, but Matt Bevin is pretty unpopular among the people that I've talked to. He pissed off the teachers during his term with comments regarding their strike such as

Quote:
"One thing you almost didn't hear anything about while we had people pretending to be sick when they weren't sick and leaving kids unattended to or in situations that they should not have been in — a little girl was shot, 7 years old, by another kid,"
And

Quote:
"I guarantee you somewhere in Kentucky today, a child was sexually assaulted that was left at home because there was nobody there to watch them. I guarantee you somewhere today, a child was physically harmed or ingested poison because they were left alone because a single parent didn’t have any money to take care of them."
I'm friends with several teachers, and these comments didn't help him any.

I'm hoping for a landslide defeat of all Republicans, but I'm happy to start from here.
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:39 AM
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Elections today will carry some information about the country as a whole, but not very much. Very few people turn out for off-year elections (when the President isn't on the ballot), and even fewer for odd-year elections (when no national offices at all are on the ballot), so you're looking at a very small and probably not representative slice of the population. And local issues are often very different from national ones. Then add in that only small portions of the country (again, not representatively chosen) will have any relevant races at all (for instance, in the few elections I'll be voting in today, every single candidate identifies as a Democrat). And even if you did have representative data for the country as a whole for today, a lot can change in a year.
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Old 11-05-2019, 11:49 AM
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The Virginia races might show us something, but, as Chronos suggests, not much. The gubernatorial races are likely to be even more localized. As for the rest...well, elections like the one I'm voting in today aren't going to tell us anything. There are no offices on my ballot, just a slate of 10 constitutional amendments (because the Texas constitution is insane), and only one of the amendments has support polarized by party. (It's pointless grandstanding by Republicans, amending the constitution to block something no one has any intention of doing.)
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Old 11-05-2019, 02:26 PM
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I am in MS. Keep your eye on the lieutenant governor position as well as the governorship (which, due to a weird quirk of Mississippi law that gives us the state-level equivalent of an electoral college, is probably out of reach for a Democrat unless a court rules that the law is unconstitutional). The Democratic candidate for Lt. Gov is very strong and (based on my highly anecdotal experience working his tailgate tent at the Mississippi State football games), drawing an unusual level of support among traditionally Republican constituencies. Definite possibility for an upset there.
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Old 11-05-2019, 07:41 PM
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I agree these elections won't tell us a whole lot, but what if there is an unusually high turnout of Republican voters in Kentucky to support an unpopular Governor because he is aligned with Trump? If it happens there would it not be an indication of what might happen in other states in the Presidential election? I'm not sure the Democratic voter turnout would tell us much. If it is high, it could be simply because Democrats see a rare chance to win in Kentucky, especially against a Trump supporter. If Democratic turnout is low, that would worry me a bit.

Last edited by Mike Mabes; 11-05-2019 at 07:42 PM.
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Old 11-05-2019, 08:01 PM
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Currently for Ky Gov 49.4 to 48.1 "too close to call" for the Democrat with going on 70% reporting.
(As I typed this it got even closer.)
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/201...ection_marquee

Last edited by bobot; 11-05-2019 at 08:01 PM.
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Old 11-05-2019, 08:14 PM
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75% reporting: 49.8 to 48.2 for the Democrat. OK, I'll stop for a while.
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Old 11-05-2019, 08:24 PM
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An "unusually high turnout", in an odd-numbered year, would still mean a turnout far lower than an "unusually low turnout" in a presidential year. The kinds of folks who vote in odd-numbered years are all folks who are absolutely guaranteed to vote in the presidential years, no matter what.

I mean, if the turnout this year among some demographic were actually higher than a typical presidential year, that would tell us a lot, but that's not going to happen.
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Old 11-05-2019, 08:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
Then add in that only small portions of the country (again, not representatively chosen) will have any relevant races at all (for instance, in the few elections I'll be voting in today, every single candidate identifies as a Democrat). And even if you did have representative data for the country as a whole for today, a lot can change in a year.
In the part of Arlington County, VA where I am posted now, of 9 offices being voted on (8 D, 1 I) there are no Republicans challenging and 6 of the people including the Independent are running unopposed. Makes one wonder why they even bother to make some of those posts elective... or suspicious that they put them in this freak election schedule precisely so nobody will bother showing up and you can keep being reelected by your close friends and relatives.

The rest of Virginia however does have the more "exciting" outlook about finally bluing the legislature; it should be interesting to see which side is motivated enough (or if population shifts finally tilted the scales) to make it decisive and prevent a repeat of the last time when they ended up drawing lots to break a tie (which stayed Republican).

Last edited by JRDelirious; 11-05-2019 at 08:28 PM.
  #11  
Old 11-05-2019, 08:34 PM
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Folks starting to call Kentucky for the Democrats.
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Old 11-05-2019, 08:43 PM
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In the part of Arlington County, VA where I am posted now
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Old 11-05-2019, 08:54 PM
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For what it's worth, I would like to go back to a simpler time when I don't know or care who the governor of Kentucky is.
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Old 11-05-2019, 08:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Fiveyearlurker View Post
Folks starting to call Kentucky for the Democrats.
Four rural counties in areas that are heavily GOP without any votes reported yet makes me think that is a bit premature considering Bevin trails by less than 10,000 votes at the moment.
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Old 11-05-2019, 09:04 PM
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Are there 10,000 votes total out there?
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Old 11-05-2019, 09:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
An "unusually high turnout", in an odd-numbered year, would still mean a turnout far lower than an "unusually low turnout" in a presidential year. The kinds of folks who vote in odd-numbered years are all folks who are absolutely guaranteed to vote in the presidential years, no matter what.

I mean, if the turnout this year among some demographic were actually higher than a typical presidential year, that would tell us a lot, but that's not going to happen.
But I think a higher than usual turnout still means something. I think it's a sign that people are engaged in politics and want to send a message to elected officials (even those who are not running for this year) to remind them that they vote. I think there are elected officials who count on voter apathy to let them get away with things.
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Old 11-05-2019, 09:18 PM
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Are there 10,000 votes total out there?
Probably not but I consider Bevin to be such a slimebag it wouldn't surprise me if he or the state GOP managed to "find" them. Without doubt if Bevin loses, as it looks more likely by the minute, this will be challenged in court and a recount will be done.

MSNBC just called Beshear the "apparent winner" while I was typing this.

They also just related this interesting info - in 2015 turnout for the governer's race was around 900,000. This year looks to be close to 1,400,000 turnout. 2016 in the Presidential race the turnout was 1,900,000.

Last edited by Kolak of Twilo; 11-05-2019 at 09:19 PM.
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Old 11-05-2019, 09:27 PM
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It's worth pointing out that the down-ticket races in Kentucky went poorly. Daniel Cameron, a Mitch McConnell disciple with almost no legal experience, is the new Attorney General (replacing Andy Beshear, the new Governor). The upside of that one is that as an unqualified reactionary in swaddling clothes, had he lost the election he almost certainly would have been appointed to the Federal bench by Trump.

Secretary of State flipped to a Democrat as well. The KY Dems had to put about everything they had into beating Bevin, and it showed.

Overall, it's hard to call it a great night for Democrats, so much as it was a terrible night for Matt Bevin. But it's still a win worth celebrating, because Bevin is an assclown.
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Old 11-05-2019, 09:52 PM
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Looks like Virginia, despite Trump's tweeting about gloom and disaster if the Dem win, will have Democratic majorities in both their House and Senate, reversing Republican majorities.

Can hardly wait to see what Our Pres. has to say about that

Last edited by The Stainless Steel Rat; 11-05-2019 at 09:52 PM.
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:04 PM
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I suspect he will be curiously silent about it.
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:20 PM
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And Bevin, acting like the true scumbag he is, will not be conceding the race. He will petition a judge for a recount based on voting "irregularites".

Shithead.
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:21 PM
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Mitch McConnell Has The Same Low Approval Rating Of The GOP Governor Who Just Lost In Kentucky
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:23 PM
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And Bevin, acting like the true scumbag he is, will not be conceding the race. He will petition a judge for a recount based on voting "irregularites".

Shithead.
To be fair, so many people voting for a Democrat in Kentucky is pretty irregular 😁
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:23 PM
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If the democrats win both legislatures and the governorship in Virginia, they better find a way to overturn gerrymandering. The democrats have to win by a 10 pt margin just to break even there.

I'm not too hopeful about the future. The public seem to vote against whoever is in the white house. Democrats won big in 2018 and 2019, and will likely win big in 2020. But if the democrat wins the presidency in 2020, I'm worried the GOP will just win in 2022. Its an endless back and forth.

On the plus side, the democrats controlling at least one house of congress and/or the governorship in multiple states will make gerrymandering much harder in 2020. I hope at least.
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:27 PM
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I gather turnout is increased in most of these races as compared to previous state/local election years. It'll be interesting to see, if possible, the partisan breakdown of voters as compared to those previous elections. If both Republicans and Democrats turned out in greater numbers this time, that's one thing, and if more of one than the other turned out, that's something else. I'm cautiously optimistic that this shows a continuation of the "blue wave", however.
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:41 PM
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Originally Posted by The Stainless Steel Rat View Post
Looks like Virginia, despite Trump's tweeting about gloom and disaster if the Dem win, will have Democratic majorities in both their House and Senate, reversing Republican majorities.

Can hardly wait to see what Our Pres. has to say about that
Based on my reading of the news, this portends passage of the Equal Rights Amendment to the US Constitution!! (I was so flabbergasted I considered starting a thread - any takers?)

See, only 1 more state needs to ratify it for the ERA to become law. Virginia is one such state, and it just barely failed passage (by 1 vote) earlier this year. Democrats are likely to revive the issue...thatís a pretty big deal.

https://apnews.com/48500f7bda97455f8a586710a2fcfe26
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Old 11-05-2019, 10:47 PM
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To be fair, so many people voting for a Democrat in Kentucky is pretty irregular 😁
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Old 11-05-2019, 11:20 PM
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For something different, consider Colorado.

2018 saw a major blue wave. Tonight shows that the Democrats have overreached themselves. The Democratic-controlled legislature referred a measure to the ballot, CC, which was a major assault on TABOR (The Taxpayer Bill of Rights). It was technically not a tax increase, but it would have resulted in the government keeping a lot more of the people's money. Prop CC is headed to a solid defeat, with 55.6% currently rejecting it.

Spending on the pro-CC side: about $4 million. Spending on the anti-CC side: about $1.5 million.

Ever since TABOR was passed in 1992, liberals in the state have chafed under its restrictions, indignant that the voters are unwilling to write government a blank check. Well, they'll just have to continue to chafe.
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Old 11-06-2019, 12:09 AM
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Based on my reading of the news, this portends passage of the Equal Rights Amendment to the US Constitution!! (I was so flabbergasted I considered starting a thread - any takers?)

See, only 1 more state needs to ratify it for the ERA to become law. Virginia is one such state, and it just barely failed passage (by 1 vote) earlier this year. Democrats are likely to revive the issue...thatís a pretty big deal.

https://apnews.com/48500f7bda97455f8a586710a2fcfe26
I think you should start a thread. Women's rights have increase greatly since the ERA was first proposed but I wonder what exactly the passage of the ERA would mean.
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Old 11-06-2019, 01:35 AM
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Based on my reading of the news, this portends passage of the Equal Rights Amendment to the US Constitution!! (I was so flabbergasted I considered starting a thread - any takers?)

See, only 1 more state needs to ratify it for the ERA to become law. Virginia is one such state, and it just barely failed passage (by 1 vote) earlier this year. Democrats are likely to revive the issue...thatís a pretty big deal.

https://apnews.com/48500f7bda97455f8a586710a2fcfe26
That is good news.
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Old 11-06-2019, 06:28 AM
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That squishy ploppy sound you've been hearing is Moscow Mitch shitting bricks.
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:01 AM
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Moscow Mitch shitting bricks.
Sounds like a jump-rope rhyme.

Moscow Mitch
Shitting Bricks
How many bricks can Mitchy shit?
One! Two! Three! Four!
Come on turtle shit some more!
Five! Six! Seven! Eight!
Shit those bricks out of our state!
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:07 AM
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Love it!
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:41 AM
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Trump thought the KY governor race would be a reflection on him:
Quote:
And Trump himself, just a night earlier, had said the outcome of Bevin's reelection bid would be a reflection on him.
"If you lose, they're going to say Trump suffered the greatest defeat in the history of the world. This was the greatest. You can't let that happen to me," he told Bevin at their rally.
There you have it, straight from the horses ass' mouth- Donald Trump just suffered the greatest loss in the history of the world.
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Old 11-06-2019, 07:53 AM
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Smaller races, but encouraging news from a purple (and formerly very red) part of PA: Democrats seem to have been elected in all big Chester County races, including 2 new county commissioners and a new DA. (Three cheers for my neighbors, as D's won ever race in my voting precinct too.)
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Old 11-06-2019, 08:14 AM
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Donald Trump went to the Series and got booed.

He went to a UFC fight and got booed.

He went to KY and got metaphorically booed.

That woman flipped him off, she got fired, she is now representing the very district Trump's golf club resides in. Boo!

There's a district in Philly that is so Democratic that they have two seats reserved for the GOP, effectively the "minority party". The GOP lost one of those seats to a socialist party.

Delaware County, PA, in GOP hands for forever, now has a 5-0 Democratic council.

Yesterday, Beshear was a socialist. Now Brad Parscale, in an attempt to save his ass, is claiming that he's just like a Republican.

Yeah, this election mattered. The fact is that overall, the GOP is 0-3 in election night gains since 2016 and 2020 will make them 0-4.

Last note: Saving Trump from impeachment obviously failed from a campaigning standpoint for the GOP, but using it truly inspired a massive Democratic turnout... again.
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Old 11-06-2019, 08:23 AM
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You better believe the Republicans will be putting their thumb on the scales hard during the recount for KY governor. I'd bet almost anything that suddenly there will be some "uncounted" Republicans votes, and/or some Democrat votes that are "unclear" as to the voter intent.
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Old 11-06-2019, 08:26 AM
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I thought Mitch McConnell and Bevin hated each other. That's what the guy on CNN was saying last night. If so, I can't see any McConnell tears here.

The CNN guy was also saying Kentucky will be in the bag for Trump no matter what. So, KY voting in a Democrat governor is more of a one-off based on Bevin's caustic personality. But could KY be in play for the Democrats if they ran a presidential candidate more in the mold of Beshear, rather than Warren/Sanders? Or is it a case that it doesn't matter who the Democratic candidate is, KY will stay red?
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:04 AM
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You better believe the Republicans will be putting their thumb on the scales hard during the recount for KY governor. I'd bet almost anything that suddenly there will be some "uncounted" Republicans votes, and/or some Democrat votes that are "unclear" as to the voter intent.

I fully understand why you would expect this to occur, I am however curious what the steps are for a recount to take place.

As I understand it Kentucky does not have a law that triggers automatic recounts. Apparently Bevin will have to convince a court to order a recount. A 5000 vote margin in a race where 1.5 million votes were cast is definitely a close margin of victory but is that alone enough to get a court to agree that a recount is needed?
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:20 AM
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Democratic vote won Breathitt County, Kentucky, a community that went for President Trump by 45 points in 2016. If this doesn't show us how things are trending for next year I don't know what could.
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Old 11-06-2019, 09:59 AM
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I fully understand why you would expect this to occur, I am however curious what the steps are for a recount to take place.

As I understand it Kentucky does not have a law that triggers automatic recounts. Apparently Bevin will have to convince a court to order a recount. A 5000 vote margin in a race where 1.5 million votes were cast is definitely a close margin of victory but is that alone enough to get a court to agree that a recount is needed?
I'm not from Kentucky, but from what I read the next step for Bevin would be to request a recanvass, and from there he can request from the courts for a recount. He's already said there were "irregularities" that have been "corroborated".

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ce/4174894002/

I love the part in this article when the law professor says:

Quote:
ďThey canít just make them up,Ē Marcosson said.

Further, he said, such a review would be extremely risky for lawmakers to undertake without clear reasons for a contested election.

ďIf the House and Senate were just to proceed on vague allegations without proof, that raises serious questions about disenfranchisement of the voters who voted for Attorney General Beshear,Ē Marcosson said. ďItís an extraordinary proposition to suggest that the General Assembly would take vague allegations of unspecified irregularities and call into question a gubernatorial election.Ē
Has he not been paying attention the past few years to Republican conduct?

They couldn't give a flying fig about appearances because their supporters don't care. The whole party is becoming increasingly hostile to democracy, and their supporters are enabling it to happen. The Republican controlled legisilature will do everything in their power to make sure the scales are weighted in favor of Bevin.

I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect there will be a recanvass, followed by a recount followed by "irregularities" that result in a Republican win.

Last edited by BeepKillBeep; 11-06-2019 at 10:01 AM.
  #42  
Old 11-06-2019, 10:03 AM
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News reports are saying that Democrats took the city council of Columbus, Indiana for the first time in nearly 40 years.

What makes this newsworthy is that Columbus is Mike Pence's hometown.
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Old 11-06-2019, 11:21 AM
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Correct me if I'm reading this wrong:

Bevin, using traditional Fox/Limbaugh talking points as his governing principles (unions=bad! Tax cuts=good! Medicare:bad!) was 34% popular. In KY.

Trump added 15%.

Does this imply that the market has effectively collapsed for traditional, post-Reagan, conservativism and that the only thing which kept the R's in power in 2016 was the whitelash?

Last edited by JohnT; 11-06-2019 at 11:23 AM.
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Old 11-06-2019, 11:31 AM
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Elections today will carry some information about the country as a whole, but not very much. Very few people turn out for off-year elections (when the President isn't on the ballot), and even fewer for odd-year elections (when no national offices at all are on the ballot), so you're looking at a very small and probably not representative slice of the population. And local issues are often very different from national ones. Then add in that only small portions of the country (again, not representatively chosen) will have any relevant races at all (for instance, in the few elections I'll be voting in today, every single candidate identifies as a Democrat). And even if you did have representative data for the country as a whole for today, a lot can change in a year.
Thatís my take as well. Pundits gonna pund and they have to fill up hours of tv but I donít think local races are going to be a big indication of things to come.


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The CNN guy was also saying Kentucky will be in the bag for Trump no matter what. So, KY voting in a Democrat governor is more of a one-off based on Bevin's caustic personality. But could KY be in play for the Democrats if they ran a presidential candidate more in the mold of Beshear, rather than Warren/Sanders? Or is it a case that it doesn't matter who the Democratic candidate is, KY will stay red?
I also agree that the vote for governor doesnít have much to do with how the presidential election is going to go. Even here in NJ a republican governor gets voted in when people are pissed off about what is happening in the state. Maybe even next election (Murphy is not too popular). The next time the state goes republican for President I will be long dead and forgotten.
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Old 11-06-2019, 11:39 AM
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Well, let's look at the results:

Having Trump appear at your rally: LOSE

Flipping off Trump in public: WIN

This suggests an obvious adjustment to GOP tactics for exploiting Presidential coattails....
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  #46  
Old 11-06-2019, 12:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnT View Post
Correct me if I'm reading this wrong:

Bevin, using traditional Fox/Limbaugh talking points as his governing principles (unions=bad! Tax cuts=good! Medicare:bad!) was 34% popular. In KY.

Trump added 15%.

Does this imply that the market has effectively collapsed for traditional, post-Reagan, conservativism and that the only thing which kept the R's in power in 2016 was the whitelash?
Here's my take:
In 2016, Trump seemed to speak to these people's grievances. Even if they were superficial ones, borne of frustration, he was speaking to them.

Bevin stopped speaking to these people. He campaigned for re-election on the issue of Trump's impeachment and how bogus it was.

Whereas his opponent spoke, yet again, to the issues that impact the people of Kentucky - their jobs, their healthcare, their retirement, etc.

Meaning, I think what worked for Trump was a version of "I feel your pain". Except it's proven hollow (as any reasonable observer of Trump could have predicted); come the 2020 election, these people will yet again look for somebody to recognize that they have frustrations that need to be addressed...
The question is will Trump speak to them on a visceral level - again addressing their concerns (however weakly) - or will his re-election just be an ongoing boastful rant about his greatness and his concerns (like the "unfair" impeachment).

More importantly, will a Democratic candidate be able to provide more genuine messaging?
  #47  
Old 11-06-2019, 01:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
Elections today will carry some information about the country as a whole, but not very much.
Because:
Quote:
Very few people turn out for off-year elections (when the President isn't on the ballot), and even fewer for odd-year elections (when no national offices at all are on the ballot), so you're looking at a very small and probably not representative slice of the population.
Except that turnout in Virginia looks to have been in the mid-40s, percentagewise. (This is by my own calculations*, comparing with recent years; no firm reporting yet.) It was 47.6% in 2017 (when the gubernatorial race was on the ballot) and 29.1% in 2015 (when, like this year, it was just the state legislature that was on the ballot). (Cite.)

That's your information, right there.


*ETA: I'm literally having to add up individual race totals on a hand calculator. Those counts are from here, but the adding-up part is mine. I'm getting ~1.25 million Dem votes alone.

Last edited by RTFirefly; 11-06-2019 at 01:02 PM.
  #48  
Old 11-06-2019, 01:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by divemaster View Post
The CNN guy was also saying Kentucky will be in the bag for Trump no matter what. So, KY voting in a Democrat governor is more of a one-off based on Bevin's caustic personality. But could KY be in play for the Democrats if they ran a presidential candidate more in the mold of Beshear, rather than Warren/Sanders?
Trump currently has a 56% approval rating in Kentucky, so probably not. Bevin's approval rating was in the low 30s.

McConnell, on the other hand...

Last edited by scr4; 11-06-2019 at 01:16 PM.
  #49  
Old 11-06-2019, 01:40 PM
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Originally Posted by Fretful Porpentine View Post
I am in MS. Keep your eye on the lieutenant governor position as well as the governorship (which, due to a weird quirk of Mississippi law that gives us the state-level equivalent of an electoral college, is probably out of reach for a Democrat unless a court rules that the law is unconstitutional). The Democratic candidate for Lt. Gov is very strong and (based on my highly anecdotal experience working his tailgate tent at the Mississippi State football games), drawing an unusual level of support among traditionally Republican constituencies. Definite possibility for an upset there.
Follow-up: Well, not so much. LG candidate not only ran well behind Hood, but about two percentage points behind the Democratic AG candidate, who was a black woman running on an openly progressive platform. I suspect his vote for a rather draconian anti-abortion bill cost him, and I'm definitely coming around to the "you may as well run to the left, because you aren't really going to make inroads among people who incline toward the other party in any meaningful way, and meanwhile you alienate your own party's most reliable voters" point of view.
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  #50  
Old 11-06-2019, 04:39 PM
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And it begins. All they need to do is follow the process. Do the recanvass, make up some lies about irregularities, and then contest the election to the KY House and Senate. Democracy will be usurped and Republicans will cheer.

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/ken...equest-beshear
https://www.courier-journal.com/stor...ys/4174103002/

Last edited by BeepKillBeep; 11-06-2019 at 04:43 PM.
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