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  #1  
Old 04-10-2019, 05:24 PM
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Australian Federal Election 2019.


Early this morning, the Aus PM Scott Morrison, paid a visit to the Governor General in order to issue a writ for the calling of an election. It is set now for May 18th.

So now we have to put up with campaigning, interminable TV and radio ads, baby-kissing photos and all the other bullshit for the next 37 days.

It may well turn out to be the most boring campaign in history.
  #2  
Old 04-10-2019, 06:13 PM
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37? :::mumblemumblemumble:::
  #3  
Old 04-10-2019, 06:18 PM
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What are the issues? Wikipedia implies one of them is climate change. And I assume same sex marriage is a settled matter.

Last edited by Ludovic; 04-10-2019 at 06:18 PM.
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Old 04-10-2019, 06:57 PM
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As the Morrison government is a minority, both sides need to win seats to get their bums on the Treasury benches.

Issues:
The economy is chugging along OK, the outlook is for a weakening and there is a bit of spare cash in the public til to splash around a bit of electoral pork masquerading as stimulus infrastructure spending. The youth vote going to the second federal election in their lives have never experienced a recession.

Border security, but less than previously and the pendulum is more towards ending mandatory detention. But is a boat of undocumented refugees gets to the mainland then it's on again. Imigration

The influence of China is an interesting question.

Climate change might be a significant issue but those for who it's a vote turner have already turned. It's not going to win LAB any metropolitan seats. Might even cost LABs seats as the Greens pick off the more radical inner city seats.

Trust us, I'm a politician.
Wouldn't say it's a vote winner for LAB, but the opportunity to take a wire brush to the LIBs nether regions over the prurile, preschool level pettiness they have shown for two terms is something to savour. It'll take LABs about six months to sink back to that same asinine level but que sera, sera.


I thought is was going to be a train wreck but the LIBs winning the NSW state election recently gives them a bit of oxygen.

Expect that VIC will be a ballot box slaughterhouse against the LIBS.
QLD the (junior coalition partner) NATs will cop it big time, because they are too much like mini LIB and their constituents. But in QLD, Australia's Florida, their votes will go to the right wing populists. Our closet Nazis (One Nation) and conspiracy theorists were looking at a possible significant resurgence but they got seriously rumbled for a dalliance seeking NRA funding in exchange for weakening our gun laws (in the aftermath of Christchurch massacre by an Australian). Might just lock the local gun lobby out in the wilderness for a generation.
WA may prove a positive for the LIBS.
There aren't sufficient marginal seats in SA, NT, TAS and ACT to sway the election.

Let's have a clear cut result folks.
Bugger off this minority government shit.

A LIB minority with "support" from the populist right will be will be just an ugly continuation of the past decade.
A LAB minority with "support" from the populist left will be no better.
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Old 04-10-2019, 07:00 PM
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Oh, and yes. SSM is a settled issue.
Curiously enough, Armageddon didn't eventuate in the aftermath and life goes on.

It could be better, but it's pretty good here.
  #6  
Old 04-10-2019, 07:31 PM
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How often does Australia have majority governments?

I thought your voting system tended to produce minorities?
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Old 04-10-2019, 08:14 PM
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How often does Australia have majority governments?

I thought your voting system tended to produce minorities?
Nope. Although there is ranked choice voting, each electoral district returns just 1 member, so at that level 100% of the representation must always go to 1 party, and 0% to all others. This tends to give the two major parties a signficant boost over all other parties, and nearly always one or other of the major parties will win more than 50% of the seats in the lower house, usually with signficantly less than 50% of the popular vote.

The general election in August 2010 did not deliver a majority to any party, with Labor and the Coalition each securing 72 seats (out of 150). Prior to that, the last time it happened was in September 1940, when the Coalition won 36 seats (out of 74), and Labor 32. And I don't think it had ever happened before that.

What happens much more often is that a government has a majority in the lower house, but not in the Senate, which is elected in multi-seat districts.
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Old 04-10-2019, 09:09 PM
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Ah, it was the Senate I was thinking of.
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Old 04-10-2019, 10:39 PM
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Interesting that the election was called today (Thursday) when traditionally it has always been on a SUNDAY.

Word on social media is that Scott Morrison and the Liberal party did that intentionally to avoid probing questions that were scheduled for tomorrow at the Senate Estimates hearings re the Adani coal-mining approvals given last week. Now the election has been called, the hearings are cancelled.

It ain't only coal that's dirty.
  #10  
Old 04-10-2019, 11:16 PM
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Australian Federal Election 2019.


Remind me: is Morrison like your fourth PM in 6 years or something?

Have there been any attempts to reduce the "spills"? They seem designed to create instability.

ETA: No snark intended. I'm bemused by the apparent ease that a PM can be kicked out in Australia.

Last edited by Northern Piper; 04-10-2019 at 11:18 PM.
  #11  
Old 04-11-2019, 12:06 AM
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Remind me: is Morrison like your fourth PM in 6 years or something?

Have there been any attempts to reduce the "spills"? They seem designed to create instability.

ETA: No snark intended. I'm bemused by the apparent ease that a PM can be kicked out in Australia.
Oh snark away, it's a bloody joke.

The Labor Party have introduced party rules to eliminate the 'revolving door' leadership issues, but to date, the Libs are still wracked with internal strife and power plays. It has done their credibility no favours at all.
  #12  
Old 04-11-2019, 12:56 AM
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Remind me: is Morrison like your fourth PM in 6 years or something?
John Howard was PM on 3rd December 2007.
If Shorten gets the keys to the Lodge on 18th May that will be 7 changes of PM in less than 12 years, about 20 months in office.

There were more changes in about the same period this time last century.
The average PM term is a lot shorter than you'd think.
There have been 30 PMs in 120 years and just the big four (Menzies, Howard, Hawke and Fraser) were in office for well over half the time since Federation.

Quote:
I'm bemused by the apparent ease that a PM can be kicked out in Australia.
It's a feature. Concentrates the political mind wonderfully.
The problem comes from minority, hung or small majority government where (say for the LIBs) to increase their electoral popularity they need to move towards the centre, but to increase their popularity within the parliamentary caucus they need to move to the right. Mirror image for the LABs.

Give the PM as sound majority for two terms to implement their manifesto with the rough bits rubbed off by the Senate. Then if we aren't happy with them we turf them out.
  #13  
Old 04-11-2019, 02:44 AM
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Climate change might be a significant issue but those for who it's a vote turner have already turned. It's not going to win LAB any metropolitan seats. Might even cost LABs seats as the Greens pick off the more radical inner city seats.
My View From The Left is that having a decent climate policy might help Labor more than you might think against the Greens, because there are plenty of climate-first voters who are actually not all that politically left and are finding the Greens getting too radical for them... and then, there's been the Recent Unpleasantness within the party to contend with as well. I'm in the electorate of Na Na Na Na Coooper myself and I voted Green in the last four elections - but not this time.

For sheer soap opera politics, I'm going to be breaking out the popcorn for Warringah and Dickson (Abbott and Dutton)

Agree with the rest of your analysis, by and large, except that I happen to think that the Gillard minority government was pretty functional, relentless carping from the media notwithstanding.

Thank God the circus only lasts six weeks, anyway
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Old 04-11-2019, 07:25 AM
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Hmm. We've only had 23 PMs in 152 years. Seems to be a more stable system here.
  #15  
Old 04-11-2019, 07:32 AM
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I imagine the longer Parliaments in Canada help with that a little. Australia has squeezed 45 elections into those 120 years, compared with 42 in Canada since 1867.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 04-11-2019 at 07:34 AM.
  #16  
Old 04-11-2019, 07:32 AM
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For sheer soap opera politics, I'm going to be breaking out the popcorn for Warringah and Dickson (Abbott and Dutton)
There's quite a long line of rednecks with the potential to successfully garrote.
Abbott, Dutton, Leyonhjelm, Anning, Bernardi, MacDonald, One Nation.
What are the odds on a job lot?

The problem for the LIBS is that if they retain office it will be because these creatures of the dark side of humanity retain their seats. So their moderate colleagues are going to need to be turfed out so as to pry the levers of power from their godbothering hands.


Quote:
Agree with the rest of your analysis, by and large, except that I happen to think that the Gillard minority government was pretty functional
I happen to think the history books will be rather kind to the Gillard government, and the least significant thing was that she is female and has red hair.
  #17  
Old 04-12-2019, 09:21 PM
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Another point of clarification, if I may. Is "federal" now the preferred term for the central government? Not "Commonwealth"?
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Old 04-12-2019, 09:47 PM
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'Federal' seems to be used more often when you want to draw a distinction between that and 'State', and when talking about day to day politics.

'Commonwealth' crops up more often in official names for government programs - eg 'blah di blah, an initiative of the Commonwealth Government of Australia'
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  #19  
Old 04-14-2019, 08:22 AM
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I know the reason this thread is pretty short is probably mostly because there aren't that many Australians at SDMB (compared with the number of Americans), but I think it's also partly because this is a particularly boring election. I'm not anticipating any exciting ideas or great oratory.

Although I did enjoy Tanya Plibersek saying "I hear from some people that Peter Dutton is a horrible human being". Hard to argue with that.
  #20  
Old 04-14-2019, 11:41 PM
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Although I did enjoy Tanya Plibersek saying "I hear from some people that Peter Dutton is a horrible human being".
You'll note Plibersek used the cheap "some people say" line. She doesn't have the bottle to say "I think he's a horrible human being". She unloads on members of her own Labor Left faction worse than that. You should here her any topic regarding the ALP NSW Right faction.
Some people say Dutton is salt of the earth too. (probably a very select few but no matter). About 45,000 people will vote for him.

Plibersek needs to consult the Keating lexicon if she wants "exciting ideas or great oratory"
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Old 04-14-2019, 11:53 PM
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There's quite a long line of rednecks with the potential to successfully garrote.
Abbott, Dutton, Leyonhjelm, Anning, Bernardi, MacDonald, One Nation.
What are the odds on a job lot?
Bewdy bonzer, one gone.

David Leyonhjelm fails in bid for NSW upper house.

An odious reptile who won a Federal Senate spot when the ducks aligned 1) giving him first spot on the ballot paper blanket, 2) using the party name Liberal Democrat caused enough Liberal voters to cross the wrong box and 3) a benevolent preference flow from those Liberal votes whose preferences didn't exhaust.

He knew he had Buckley's change of doing that in Election 2019 so he tried for the NSW State Assembly.

Two weeks ago he claimed his electoral victory was evident and published a manifesto.

See ya!
  #22  
Old 04-15-2019, 12:07 AM
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What are the major issues?

And is half your Senate up for election as well as all of the Representatives?
  #23  
Old 04-15-2019, 04:02 AM
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You'll note Plibersek used the cheap "some people say"
In this case, I took that as a reference to Dutton initially defending his comment about Ali France by saying that people had raised the issue with him. But I could be wrong.
  #24  
Old 04-15-2019, 04:06 AM
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You'll note Plibersek used the cheap "some people say" line. She doesn't have the bottle to say "I think he's a horrible human being"
Nonsense. Plibersek was using Sutton's pea hearted attack using the 'some people say...' line he used against Ali France.

Dutton said (of France):
Quote:
A lot of people have raised this with me. I think they are quite angry that Ms France is using her disability as an excuse for not moving into our electorate.
Plibersek said (of Dutton):

Quote:
I hear from some people that Peter Dutton is a horrible human being — put that on the record," she said.

Last edited by Krav Manga; 04-15-2019 at 04:06 AM.
  #25  
Old 04-15-2019, 06:34 AM
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And is half your Senate up for election as well as all of the Representatives?
Yes.
All 151 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Northern Piper View Post
What are the major issues?
This is Australia mate, just a replay of virtually every election since Gough left in '77.
It's greed vs gravy, and you always put your money on self-interest ... it's the only horse trying.

We got the LIBs saying we have been utter shits for the last six years but we try to keep everybody's taxes down.

We got the LABs saying we were utter shits six years ago but now we have new plans to try to give everybody a cream bun.

The voting public want both the cream bun, and the lower taxes.
They get the shits.
  #26  
Old 04-15-2019, 06:38 AM
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In this case, I took that as a reference to Dutton initially defending his comment about Ali France.
If that is the case I missed the reference, I don't spend much time listening to Dutton.
  #27  
Old 04-15-2019, 04:38 PM
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If that is the case I missed the reference, I don't spend much time listening to Dutton.
Right - so you only saw Plibersek's comments without any context as to what Dutton had said.
  #28  
Old 04-15-2019, 05:37 PM
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So, as others have said, the election is basically hip pocket, hip pocket with a side order of hip pocket, so I try to lighten the experience by finding the most interesting loonies I can, and give 'em a good mocking. Clive "Make Australia Hate The Colour Yellow Again" Palmer is definitely up there, but I was recently graced with a fantastic election pitch from a local hopeful by the name of (no, seriously) Teresa Van LieShout (camel case mine...) on behalf of - if I'm reading her URL correctly - the "Voter Ights Party"

Specific Ights that this party is in favour of start off with the ight to take away a receipt of your vote from the polling place. Ms DontQuiteUnderstandTheSecretBallot then goes on to propose abolishing all income taxes, close all psych hospitals, close all womens' prisons (in fairness, there's a 'protecting Indigenous Women' angle to this that I'd like to acknowledge as having her heart in the right place, even as her brain is on another planet), abolish the concept of a 'fine' (yes, no fines as well as no prisons. What could possibly go wrong?) make home loans have 1% interest rates and promote 'natural therapies' (can I get a 'woo'? yeah, I think I can)

It would be unfair to characterise the Voter Ights Party as 'Teresa Van Lieshout plus a bunch of crash test dummies artfully arranged behind phone lines, one per state', however. Why, they're even had a candidate in WA once! Oh, yeah, it was her
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Old 04-15-2019, 06:07 PM
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Right - so you only saw Plibersek's comments without any context as to what Dutton had said.
I didn't see Plibersek's comments either.
I responded to StrangeBird's post.
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Old 04-15-2019, 06:22 PM
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Given the certifiable nature of the major parties having a couple of loonies like the Voter Rights Party in the mix is of some comfort.

I though it was a very nice touch that one of the central planks of the Party's platform, amongst some radical social reforms and global trade proposals, is a cleaning program for the Darebin Creek.
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Old 04-15-2019, 08:23 PM
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I expect great things too from the Involuntary Medication Objectors party - AKA Anti-Vaxxers and Fluoride Conspiracy nutters - too.

Just as long as "great things" doesn't under any circumstances involve "getting anyone elected". Somewhere between impressed and horrified that among the eight people willing to agree to actually put their names and faces on the line to this platform, there is someone with an actual PhD. Hissssss!
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Old 04-15-2019, 10:40 PM
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This is true, but I'm simply horrified that in Federal election 2016 175,000 people gave One Nation candidates their HoR first preference vote.
And that 178,000 gave their first preference to Fred Nile's heretic burning Christian Democrats.

I am getting some sense of faith in my fellow Ozers in that since One Nation's dalliance with the NRA seeking $millions in campaign funding in exchange for weakening/repealing our gun laws their support has fallen from 11% to 4%, which is still 3.95% too high.

Last edited by penultima thule; 04-15-2019 at 10:40 PM.
  #33  
Old 04-15-2019, 11:03 PM
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Yes.
All 151 seats in the House of Representatives and 40 of the 76 seats in the Senate.
The number of seats seems quite bizarre to me. In America, there are two main systems used: (1) Pick a nice round figure for the total of seats for both houses combined (say 100) and then split that figure up between the two houses (usually in multiples of 5 or 10, for example a 65-35 split); or (2) make sure that each house has a nice figure for its own total.

It it really asking too much for you people to pick a sensible number of seats for your legislature?
  #34  
Old 04-16-2019, 12:46 AM
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Oh dear, you know, merkins have given the world a great many advances and improvements but how to run elections and determining electoral divisions is not one of them.
Exhibit #1 for the prosecution your grotesquely distorted (gerrymandered) districts.

For Australia there is a formula determined by an independent body and reviewed by a bipartisan committee.
https://www.aec.gov.au/Electorates/R...titlements.htm

in précis:
Each of the 6 states has 12 senators = 72. The two territories get 2 senators each.
6 senators per state elected every cycle plus all the territory senators = 40

The number of seats in the House of Reps for the 6 states is double the number of state senators = 144
That establishes a population quota = 164,788 per electorate.
The states get the number of seats as their population divided by the quota rounded to nearest integer. (Tasmania, the smallest state gets a minimum 5)
The two territories get their number of electorates by the same quota.

Which gives
NSW 47
VIC 38
QLD 30
WA 16
SA 10
TAS 5
ACT 3
NT 2
TOT 151

Redistributions are done after every election based on the last population census.
When the population quota gets too big the senate will be increased to 14 per state.
(which will totally bugger the minor parties representation, but that's another matter entirely)
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Old 04-16-2019, 05:37 PM
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What are the major issues?
For something empirical, the list below comes from the ABC's Vote Compass.

It claims to be based on 119,516 respondents nationally.
The ABC demographic skews left and affluent and people who respond to these sort of surveys skews youth. The change from 2016 is included.

% respondents #1 election issue
2019 vs 2016
Environment 29 +20
Economy 23 - 2
Healthcare 8 - 8
Superannuation 8 - 4
Employment 6 - 1
Immigration 6 - 3
Government 5 0
Education 5 - 7
Poverty/inequality 5 +1
Cost of living 4 +1

Anybody who thinks that only 4% of voters will consider cost of living the #1 factor when they stand in the voting booth, as distinct from when they are doing an on-line survey on their iPad whilst sipping a latte is delusional.
  #36  
Old 04-16-2019, 06:25 PM
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On the other hand, there's four or five factors on that list that could be bundled together as "money worries", and it looks like those numbers add up to 100, ie they're a list of "number 1 issues". I bet the people who put 'Economy' number one are also putting 'cost of living' and 'employment' somewhere pretty close to the top.

I'm amazed that so many people put 'Environment' first (I do myself, but then I live in the inner suburbs and am sipping a latte as we speak!) because it feels like an 'economy' election to me. On the other hand, a) yes, ABC online poll DOES provide a particularly unrepresentative sample and b) numbers of people supporting climate action is going up

Here's another poll, from Essential Media (Guardian-sponsored, ie also lefty)

Q. To what extent are you concerned about the following issues?


I worry about this:...........all the time.......often......sometimes..........never
_
Health of myself and family 27%...............35%.........31%...................7%
My ability to pay for basics .27%...............29%.........25%..................19%
Impact of climate change ...21%...............30%.........28%..................21%
Crime in my community .....19%...............31%.........35%..................16%
Threat of terrorism ............19%...............26%.........36%..................19%
My job security .................16%...............22%.........20%..................41%


That has 'cost of living' pipping 'climate change' to the post, but there's not much in it.

I suppose, if they're smart, Labor will be trying to keep "Health" somewhere close to the top, and the Libs appear to be going for "Job security" and "Pay for the basics".
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Old 04-16-2019, 09:20 PM
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I think we are getting to a very similar position from opposite perspectives.

For me, climate change is the economy and likely no country on the planet is better positioned in terms of options and capacity to benefit from switch to renewables than Aust.
  #38  
Old 04-17-2019, 03:13 AM
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Whereas I would probably say - yes, you can achieve environmental goals when you have great prosperity - and this happens when wealthy countries decide that all that pollution is messing with our personal quality of life. But in order for that to happen we have to choose that actively - it's possible to look at any level of great prosperity and say 'yeah, but it's not enough - we'll do something about global warming when we've got just a little bit more cash' - and keep doing that till the waters close over our heads
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