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  #151  
Old 04-16-2019, 02:04 PM
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I agree with begbert2 (I think we agree on this at least) that none of that seems the least bit likely. Nuking someone just because he loses an election seems even less-so.
I don't think there's any chance that he could hole himself up in the West Wing with his henchmen and hold out in a Waco-style siege - the military, police, and even his own secret service wouldn't stand for it.

He could easily incite his Twitter followers into violence - the fucking terrorist already has! Getting the level of violence to be organized enough to be justified called an "armed revolt" seems vanishingly unlikely though.

He could retreat to Mar-a-Lago with his devotees, though, and nobody would stop him. But who would care? Senile old man declares himself president of the universe and shouts that fact at cloud, film at 11.


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Originally Posted by Walken After Midnight View Post
Trump already calls things that might challenge his presidency, such as the Mueller report, "illegal" and an "attempted coup", so it's not unreasonable to surmise that he might say the same at other future times that his presidency may be threatened, such as an election, impeachment or end of his two-term limit. We already know from 2016 that he views elections as "rigged", anyway.

Alternative venues to the White House for some final conflagration would be Trump Tower and Mar-a-Lago. At 58-floors, Trump Tower would be quite a defensible location with commanding views - think the movie Die Hard. Mar-a-Lago seems like the more obvious analogue for the Jonestown compound, and the frequency with which Trump visits his "southern White House" suggests he views it as his retreat from the reality of life in Washington. So that would be the place I can most likely see Trump going "Jim Jones", were he to do so.
As I just said to HD, Trump has no chance of illegally occupying the white house, but legally occupying his own private properties are another matter. He can hole out in one of them forever and nobody is going to stop him - or even bother trying to.

Hell, the government would probably even write off any silverware he shoved into his pockets on the way out. Not worth bothering with.
  #152  
Old 04-16-2019, 02:31 PM
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Is this the "Law Of Political Equality" you right-wingers trot out whenever your people go over the top? Do you actually believe there is some sort of natural force that guarantees that if one side is bad, the other side must be equally bad, and that this "fact" excuses said behaviour? That if one of yours fucks it up royally all you have to say is "You are just as bad as we are!" and your saying so makes it true? Your President is a dangerous, self-serving, bigoted, money-grubbing habitual liar who has brought the crazy to a dangerous new level, all your piteous hand-waving notwithstanding.
Not at all. I just have no respect for Chicken Little.
  #153  
Old 04-16-2019, 02:35 PM
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Not at all. I just have no respect for Chicken Little.
You've been pulling this "Chicken Little" crap since Trump got into politics-when it comes to spinning crap you're a regular Baghdad Bob, aren't you?
  #154  
Old 04-16-2019, 04:53 PM
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I find the "chicken little" position a pretty lazy and cowardly one. There's no accounting if you're wrong because we'll all have much bigger concerns than digging up an incorrect post from years ago. But if you're right, you get to be right.
  #155  
Old 04-16-2019, 05:27 PM
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He wouldn't want to stay for a 3rd. Most presidents can't wait to be out the door by the time eight years is up. He would be 78 years by then, thoroughly exhausted and worn out, perhaps just want to spend his remaining years chilling in Mar-a-Lago. The guy has physical and mental limits like anyone else.
He would want to have some way of getting an insurance policy against his being prosecuted and convicted in a court of law. He's not most presidents.
  #156  
Old 04-16-2019, 05:44 PM
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You've been pulling this "Chicken Little" crap since Trump got into politics-when it comes to spinning crap you're a regular Baghdad Bob, aren't you?
Cite?
  #157  
Old 04-16-2019, 05:46 PM
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I find the "chicken little" position a pretty lazy and cowardly one. There's no accounting if you're wrong because we'll all have much bigger concerns than digging up an incorrect post from years ago. But if you're right, you get to be right.
Oh, please...if you're wrong, you are exactly the one who should be happy. Or is it that you would rather be right and all the chaos you predict would be worth it?
  #158  
Old 04-16-2019, 05:50 PM
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He wouldn't want to stay for a 3rd. Most presidents can't wait to be out the door by the time eight years is up. He would be 78 years by then, thoroughly exhausted and worn out, perhaps just want to spend his remaining years chilling in Mar-a-Lago. The guy has physical and mental limits like anyone else.
In addition to asahi's point, whether or not Trump wants to continue being president, he doesn't want to be kicked out of being president. That would be losing, which is something only losers do, and he's no loser.

Now, arguably, stepping down at the end of a second term doesn't imply a loss. But for Trump to realize and comprehend that he'd have to have at least two functioning brain cells, and I figure the odds of that being the case in six years are right around zero, if he's even still alive.
  #159  
Old 04-16-2019, 06:18 PM
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{...} Ed Wood...well, maybe Ed Wood would have taken it on. {...}
"Gold plate? What are you talking about, this is a class production . . . angora plate everything!"

CMC fnord!
  #160  
Old 04-16-2019, 11:08 PM
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He cannot even run for a third term. Hopefully, he won't even finish his current term.
Whether he would leave via handcuffs or a hearse, we'd then get President Pence.

SPOILER:
Scenario in 2020: Mayor Pete gets the Veep nomination, which IMHO and YMMV is not unlikely, and the Dems win, at which time he and Chaston move into
SPOILER:
Mike Pence's current house
, at which time Mr. Pence collapses in a dead faint.
  #161  
Old 04-17-2019, 04:14 AM
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I don't think there's any chance that he could hole himself up in the West Wing with his henchmen and hold out in a Waco-style siege - the military, police, and even his own secret service wouldn't stand for it.

He could easily incite his Twitter followers into violence - the fucking terrorist already has! Getting the level of violence to be organized enough to be justified called an "armed revolt" seems vanishingly unlikely though.

He could retreat to Mar-a-Lago with his devotees, though, and nobody would stop him. But who would care? Senile old man declares himself president of the universe and shouts that fact at cloud, film at 11.


As I just said to HD, Trump has no chance of illegally occupying the white house, but legally occupying his own private properties are another matter. He can hole out in one of them forever and nobody is going to stop him - or even bother trying to.

Hell, the government would probably even write off any silverware he shoved into his pockets on the way out. Not worth bothering with.
If we want to see an example of how Trump's end could play out over the course of 4-8 years, maybe the example of Silvio Berlusconi is worth analyzing. Like Trump, a billionaire with a background in entertainment. An unconventional right-wing populist. Someone who uses divisions among people and polarization to win elections because he knows that the moment people of all stripe begin to figure out they're paying a price for his corruption, it's over. And someone who almost from day one was involved in some sort of political and legal scandal. In Berlusconi's case, he was accused of everything from financial crimes to sexual assault. A political novice initially, he learned how to master the complex political arena because it was essential to do so for his survival. He soon realized that the courts and the legal system were a different animal and were perpetually a challenge to his authority, which is why he perpetually railed against the courts, claiming they were politically motivated and out to get him. He claimed his opponents were communists and enemies of the people. Eventually, the law and his own incompetence caught up with him. People saw that he was failing to do with a looming financial crisis, which finally made people care a lot more about his legal problems, which caught up with him as well once he was driven from office.

That's ultimately how I see Trump's end. A recession will begin to chip away at his base and make those who are indifferent more vocally opposed to him. Trump and his die-hard supporters will claim that the courts and the duty-bound civil servants are conducting a witch-hunt, and that they're anti-American. He'll encourage political activists, including some of the more aggressive NRA types, to harass and threaten their political opponents. But eventually, he will succumb to his own declining popularity and he will begin losing supporters in congress.

Last edited by asahi; 04-17-2019 at 04:18 AM.
  #162  
Old 04-17-2019, 04:21 AM
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Missed the edit window but wanted to add that in the end, he'll probably stand trial either in federal or state court for financial crimes like tax evasion, which is far short of what he probabyl should be convicted for but it'll be probably all the government has. He'll probably have a 50/50 chance of serving a 1-2 year sentence, which might be further reduced to probation. But he could get off completely. All the while, a good 25-30% of the country will think Trump is a martyr and the rest of the country will probably despise him. And who knows, maybe in 30-40 years, a new generation takes out the volume of the encylcopaedia that deals with the Trump chapter, dusts it off, and retells it all in a more favorable light, as if to suggest that the people of his era got him wrong and didn't appreciate his true genius. That's kinda where I see this.

Last edited by asahi; 04-17-2019 at 04:23 AM.
  #163  
Old 04-17-2019, 08:08 AM
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If we want to see an example of how Trump's end could play out over the course of 4-8 years, maybe the example of Silvio Berlusconi is worth analyzing.
While there are certainly some similarities between Berlusconi and Trump, Berlusconi has much more of breezy cheeky chappie personality, and lacks the sociopathic malevolence that is a defining trait of Trump's character. I find it hard to imagine Berlusconi as a cult leader or as someone who would foment political violence. Here's a list of controversies surrounding Berlusconi, and the closest thing to violence is Berlusconi himself being hit in the face with an alabaster statuette of Milan Cathedral.
  #164  
Old 04-17-2019, 09:13 AM
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While there are certainly some similarities between Berlusconi and Trump, Berlusconi has much more of breezy cheeky chappie personality, and lacks the sociopathic malevolence that is a defining trait of Trump's character. I find it hard to imagine Berlusconi as a cult leader or as someone who would foment political violence. Here's a list of controversies surrounding Berlusconi, and the closest thing to violence is Berlusconi himself being hit in the face with an alabaster statuette of Milan Cathedral.
Although I hasten to point out that we don't know anything yet, one of the witnesses in Berlusconi's sexual assault case, died under very mysterious circumstances and claims she was poisoned. It's obviously not conclusive whether she was poisoned, and if so, by whom. But Berlusconi's dalliances with criminal enterprise are eerily reminiscent of Trump. And many powerful men will kill to keep themselves free, even when they are not necessarily instinctively programmed to do so by their nature or temperament.

What I go back to with Trump is that he is a rich man, a powerful man, and someone who has his back to the wall legally and, consequently, financially as well. When people like Trump go into survival and defense mode, they came at their opponents with venom and viciousness that often catches their targets by surprise.

He will eventually be driven from power because people will get tired of him - even his supporters will eventually tire of his twitter feed. But I suspect that he'll leave a lot of residual and may remain in the background for sometime after his ouster.
  #165  
Old 04-17-2019, 12:53 PM
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Former two-time Peruvian President Alan García shot and killed himself today as police arrived to arrest him on charges of money laundering and taking bribes. Desperate people can take desperate measures. I feel sure that Trump would put other peoples lives on the line before his own.
  #166  
Old 04-17-2019, 06:12 PM
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And while Trump hasn't physically isolated his followers, ...
Well, he is trying to build a wall.
  #167  
Old 04-17-2019, 07:22 PM
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Former two-time Peruvian President Alan García shot and killed himself today as police arrived to arrest him on charges of money laundering and taking bribes. Desperate people can take desperate measures. I feel sure that Trump would put other peoples lives on the line before his own.
Of course. Trump knows that the US legal system won't through him in a hole to die.

We are better than that. We are better than Trump.
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