Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #1  
Old 06-19-2018, 02:39 PM
Truman Burbank Truman Burbank is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: California
Posts: 2,574
Families separated at the Border - effects upon the Midterms?

This article in CNN suggests Republicans may be scrambling, fearful that the policy and it's optics might cost them dearly, at least in the House? While it plays to Trump's base, it polls very poorly with Ds and Independents. Do you think it changes the likely results of the Midterms? Why or why not? https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/19/polit...ion/index.html

Last edited by Truman Burbank; 06-19-2018 at 02:39 PM.
  #2  
Old 06-19-2018, 03:25 PM
Locrian Locrian is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Valley Village, CA
Posts: 3,799
No, I don't think it will affect them.

If I were a GOP candidate, I'd say something like, "We must be tough on immigration, but I support family values. And separating any family is wrong to me. We need to IMPROVE the separations in camps."

So for a voter who hates them there brown people, but doesn't like seeing the kids crying, that voter will vote for me.

As a Democratic candidate, I might say, "We must STOP the camps of children. It's Inhumane!" And plenty of people who are disgusted by this will vote for me.

Immigration is an issue, but the family separation is an issue within an issue-- immigration. If that's the single-issue voter's factor on who they vote for, I doubt it would swing many people.

Last edited by Locrian; 06-19-2018 at 03:26 PM.
  #3  
Old 06-19-2018, 03:29 PM
senoy senoy is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2018
Posts: 546
It'll have zero effect. We're 5 months out and this administration is masterful at changing the subject by doing something else that's vile. My guess is that in two weeks you won't even hear about this anymore. The only thing that is happening that might have some effect is that Evangelicals are definitely upset about it. My Evangelical friends and family aren't trying to defend it at all. They're steamed, but the Fox News churn has them convinced that this is Obama's fault and Trump's hands are tied. They honestly believe that Trump had nothing to do with this and it has been happening for years and only now is coming out because the Democrats are playing politics. It honestly wouldn't surprise me if what happens is that Trump cancels his zero tolerance policy with an Executive Order and then it gets spun as he is finally the guy that was willing to put a stop to this injustice despite the Democrats doing their best to keep those people in confinement. I will say though that a surprising number of Evangelical leaders are starting to turn on this issue. I don't know it it will be permanent, but I think that it's possible for Trump to really mess up his base if he's not careful.

It's interesting sometimes to spend a day or two and just consume news from the other side. It's really a totally different reality that we're living in. If your only source of news was Fox News and Breitbart, you would totally be convinced that Trump is the greatest President since Lincoln and if Democrats would only let him that he would make the US a utopia. The information and spin is so completely different that they're really not seeing the world the same way that we are.

Last edited by senoy; 06-19-2018 at 03:32 PM.
  #4  
Old 06-19-2018, 03:46 PM
Truman Burbank Truman Burbank is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: California
Posts: 2,574
some 538 polling

FWIS. I think it will contribute in some significant way to turning off those who were 'looking the other way'. I think it will revive talk of a blue wave. https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...lly-unpopular/
  #5  
Old 06-19-2018, 03:50 PM
steronz steronz is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Oh-hiya-Maude
Posts: 4,363
Quote:
Originally Posted by Locrian View Post
I doubt it would swing many people.
I guess it's not really about swinging people, but about making R voters apathetic and D voters extremely motivated.
  #6  
Old 06-19-2018, 04:13 PM
bobot bobot is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Chicago-ish
Posts: 6,122
Quote:
Originally Posted by Truman Burbank View Post
This article in CNN suggests Republicans may be scrambling, fearful that the policy and it's optics might cost them dearly, at least in the House? While it plays to Trump's base, it polls very poorly with Ds and Independents. Do you think it changes the likely results of the Midterms? Why or why not? https://www.cnn.com/2018/06/19/polit...ion/index.html
I would like to believe that every terrible thing Trump fosters, allows, starts or influences will garner a proper response from American voters. However, I lost all faith in the American electorate in Nov. 2016. There is a stunning number of easily influenced and steered voters in this country. Old fashioned propaganda in facebook feeds and cable "news" works, and propaganda has never had such a reach.
  #7  
Old 06-19-2018, 04:24 PM
Truman Burbank Truman Burbank is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2010
Location: California
Posts: 2,574
Yes it is hard to take. I bet it felt like this at the end of all empires...
  #8  
Old 06-19-2018, 05:32 PM
Locrian Locrian is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Nov 2008
Location: Valley Village, CA
Posts: 3,799
Quote:
Originally Posted by steronz View Post
I guess it's not really about swinging people, but about making R voters apathetic and D voters extremely motivated.
I'm expecting more GOP voters to vote since the presidential election. Here's hoping democratic voters show up too.

If Orange Turd would simply say, "A vote for any republican is a vote for me!" that's all it'll take.
  #9  
Old 06-19-2018, 05:48 PM
dalej42 dalej42 is online now
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Chicago
Posts: 12,831
I think it will have an effect. I think it’s similar to Obama’s awful year in 2014 which had the children’s immigration issue along with Ebola and ISIS. That caused a lot of Democrats to twist themselves into pretzels about if they supported him or not.

We shall see if this issue, along with the tariffs, causes Republican candidates to flop all over the place, just like they did in 2006 with Katrina, Iraq, and the congressional scandals.
  #10  
Old 06-19-2018, 05:59 PM
naita naita is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Norway
Posts: 5,563
The effect depends on how it is resolved, and when. There are now multiple republican senators and representatives speaking out against the practice. Laws are being written to force the administration to do things differently.

It's definitely another talking point for Democrats and more fuel for the "Trump has to be stopped at all costs"-bonfire.

It's also a divisive issue for the GOP, pitting the president against his "own" senators and congressmen. Whether they've fought the president or kowtowed again, it might influence some independents and the enthusiasm of the very anti- and very pro-Trump voters.

Add to that more potential chaos as congress passes laws that Trump might or might not sign, and that he might or might not call terrible after they've been passed ...

I find it completely plausible that Trump as the midterms approach will be screaming "We must elect Republicans, but only good Republicans!" while everyone around him tries to tell him there is no way to replace "disloyal" candidates on the ballot except in the extremely unlikely event every potential voters write in the same Trumpkin. (Or is it even possible to write in a candidate in every state?)
  #11  
Old 06-19-2018, 06:00 PM
Exapno Mapcase Exapno Mapcase is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: NY but not NYC
Posts: 30,104
Quote:
Originally Posted by Locrian View Post
I'm expecting more GOP voters to vote since the presidential election. Here's hoping democratic voters show up too.

If Orange Turd would simply say, "A vote for any republican is a vote for me!" that's all it'll take.
I'm not sure what you mean by this. In general, Republican voters tend to turn out at higher rates in off-year elections and that was especially noticeable in 2014. There hasn't been much sign of this in the primaries, though. And Trump, BTW, has a poor track record in getting supported candidates on the ballot.

A lot of that is because off-year elections are always about local issues. Immigration is a major issue in border areas and far less of one in the rest of the country.

The one effect I anticipate will be so hard to quantify that it hardly counts as a prediction. Notice that all five former first ladies have come out against separating families. A record number of female candidates are running this fall, both for Congress and for lower races. The association with children and families may add a small, subliminal boost to their electibility.
  #12  
Old 06-19-2018, 06:23 PM
asahi asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 6,096
I think it actually helps Trump, and I'll explain why.

In the short run, yes, it's terrible optics. It's never good to have crying children on a hot mic and images of children being taken from their parents. So right now, it's bad in the sense that it blunts what could have been a major spike in his support from his meeting with Kim Jong Un.

But in the long run, this not only doesn't hurt Trump, but might even help him. His gladiator politics have demonstrated convincingly that he stands with white nationalists and the rest of his deplorables. This actually helps Trump because he's giving these people a reason to go out and vote in mid-terms. Sure, he's giving his enemies a reason to go out and vote against him, but if he can get more of his white vote out to the polls, then he wins.

I'd also point out that if there's a major national emergency, like a terrorist event, then the people might be more inclined to support a president with a cruel dictatorial streak.
  #13  
Old 06-19-2018, 06:56 PM
Tamerlane Tamerlane is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Oct 2000
Location: SF Bay Area, California
Posts: 13,097
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post

But in the long run, this not only doesn't hurt Trump, but might even help him. His gladiator politics have demonstrated convincingly that he stands with white nationalists and the rest of his deplorables. This actually helps Trump because he's giving these people a reason to go out and vote in mid-terms. Sure, he's giving his enemies a reason to go out and vote against him, but if he can get more of his white vote out to the polls, then he wins.
Maybe. Trump himself may not care( resistance often seems to cause him to angrily double down ), but when Ralph Reed And Franklin Graham are coming out against you, generic Republicans have cause to sweat.
  #14  
Old 06-19-2018, 07:14 PM
China Guy China Guy is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2001
Location: Pacific Northwest
Posts: 11,188
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
I'd also point out that if there's a major national emergency, like a terrorist event, then the people might be more inclined to support a president with a cruel dictatorial streak.
It would play to his base, just like he'
s doing now. Don't think this or a terrorist attack will help him with anyone but his base. YMMV
  #15  
Old 06-19-2018, 08:08 PM
Buck Godot Buck Godot is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: MD outside DC
Posts: 4,840
Probably not.

There are three sets of people: those who like Trump, those who hate Trump, and those who aren't paying any attention.

Those who like Trump and like the policy will continue to do so.
Those who like Trump but hate the policy will believe Trump's lies that its all Obama's fault.

Those who hate Trump will just add it to the mountain of reasons to hate Trump, to little effect.

Those who haven't been paying attention will continue to do so or will throw up their hands and say both sides are equally bad.

What I expect the Republicans to do is to pass a remedy measure with a poison pill, such as closing down Immigration courts, and leaving the decisions about granting asylum up to ICE. Then when Democrats vote against it that vote can be used in ads to prove the Democrats won't let children go back to their parents.

Last edited by Buck Godot; 06-19-2018 at 08:08 PM.
  #16  
Old 06-19-2018, 08:37 PM
asahi asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 6,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by China Guy View Post
It would play to his base, just like he'
s doing now. Don't think this or a terrorist attack will help him with anyone but his base. YMMV
He didn't become president with just his base alone; he had others who were outside of his base to help him get over the top.
  #17  
Old 06-19-2018, 08:39 PM
asahi asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 6,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tamerlane View Post
Maybe. Trump himself may not care( resistance often seems to cause him to angrily double down ), but when Ralph Reed And Franklin Graham are coming out against you, generic Republicans have cause to sweat.
Maybe, but he can back off of the policy and forget that it happened. And Franklin Graham and Ralph Reed would quickly go back to being Trump supporters. He risks more permanent damage by looking too weak on immigration than too strong. He was elected in part by promising to be tough on immigration and by making America white again. Don't ever forget that.
  #18  
Old 06-19-2018, 08:45 PM
Aspenglow Aspenglow is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Oregon
Posts: 2,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by asahi View Post
He didn't become president with just his base alone; he had others who were outside of his base to help him get over the top.
You're right. He claimed the great Middle, who at that time didn't really know what they were getting. But they sure do now. I don't think you're parsing it correctly. The Middle is now fleeing him in droves.

Everything you need to know about how well this is all going to play in the mid-terms is evident in how Republicans are reacting. They're actually starting to speak out and criticize him to distance themselves from this policy. They are not agreeing to blame Democrats.

Both Democratic and Republican governors are rescinding their orders to deploy National Guard troops to the border earlier sent at Trump's request.

I hope Trump runs on this all the way to November.

Last edited by Aspenglow; 06-19-2018 at 08:46 PM.
  #19  
Old 06-19-2018, 08:58 PM
TriPolar TriPolar is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: rhode island
Posts: 38,885
The GOP will stand up to Trump on this one. No one will switch their vote to a Democrat for doing that.
  #20  
Old 06-19-2018, 09:01 PM
Aspenglow Aspenglow is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2014
Location: Oregon
Posts: 2,635
Quote:
Originally Posted by TriPolar View Post
The GOP will stand up to Trump on this one. No one will switch their vote to a Democrat for doing that.
Of course not. As I said in my post, it's the Middle that is fleeing him and his policies. It's the Middle that wins elections.

Last edited by Aspenglow; 06-19-2018 at 09:01 PM.
  #21  
Old 06-19-2018, 09:40 PM
asahi asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 6,096
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aspenglow View Post
You're right. He claimed the great Middle, who at that time didn't really know what they were getting. But they sure do now. I don't think you're parsing it correctly. The Middle is now fleeing him in droves.

Everything you need to know about how well this is all going to play in the mid-terms is evident in how Republicans are reacting. They're actually starting to speak out and criticize him to distance themselves from this policy. They are not agreeing to blame Democrats.

Both Democratic and Republican governors are rescinding their orders to deploy National Guard troops to the border earlier sent at Trump's request.

I hope Trump runs on this all the way to November.
I don't disagree that the optics are bad for Trump now, which is why this is one of those rare time he's facing some internal push-back -- but remember there was the disastrous response to the tragedy in Charlottesville, VA and he eventually recovered from that. He said the right things (eventually), and that satisfied the general public, which desperately (and mistakenly) wants to normalize him. But to his base, he's a hero. And this is only reinforcing his strength.

Here's the thing to remember: Trump is the fringe president, but he represents 27-30% of fringe America that desperately wants to be recognized and tolerated. The message they're getting from Trump is, they have their guy in the White House - a rare occurrence. That means 27-30% of the electorate have a reason to vote. What you see from Trump is theater - gladiator politics. A show to make him seem embattled, so that his Praetorian guard will come out and defend him in 2018 and 2020.
  #22  
Old 06-19-2018, 09:46 PM
Czarcasm Czarcasm is offline
Charter Member
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 56,403
AP reveals that there are three shelters in Southern Texas...for babies and toddlers.
My Beloved is in tears about this and I can't tell her it isn't as bad as it seems, ghodmotherfuckingdamnitalltofuckinghell.
  #23  
Old 06-19-2018, 09:51 PM
Procrustus Procrustus is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Pacific NW.
Posts: 10,801
Quote:
Originally Posted by Czarcasm View Post
AP reveals that there are three shelters in Southern Texas...for babies and toddlers.
My Beloved is in tears about this and I can't tell her it isn't as bad as it seems, ghodmotherfuckingdamnitalltofuckinghell.
Rachel Meadow broke down at the end of her show announcing this
  #24  
Old 06-19-2018, 09:52 PM
Czarcasm Czarcasm is offline
Charter Member
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 56,403
Quote:
Originally Posted by Procrustus View Post
Rachel Meadow broke down at the end of her show announcing this
. No.
She broke down trying to announce this.
  #25  
Old 06-20-2018, 05:40 AM
asahi asahi is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2015
Location: On your computer screen
Posts: 6,096
This is going to be remembered as one of the worst, darkest chapters in our nation's history, for however long our nation remains intact.
  #26  
Old 06-20-2018, 07:39 AM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Home 07 NCAA HockeyChamps
Posts: 20,305
Depending on how this turns out, this is going to be significant. Should Donald come to his senses and reverse this nonsense, damage could be minimal. But he is incapable of learning, of having empathy, of admitting error, or of backing down. So that's not going to happen. If he was smart, he could use this as a ploy to get rid of Sessions. He could claim to be horrified by his concentration camps, fire Sessions for his policy, then get a toady confirmed who fires Mueller. Of course he isn't that smart and he saddles Republicans with the tears of children.

What will Republicans do? Stand by Donald and keep the 25% of the voters who are racist, but alienate the other 75%? Renounce the policy and get primaried by a racist or if already past the primary, the racist core of the party loses enthusiasm and stays home? It's a lose-lose proposition for them.

I do know one thing: If these immigrants looked like JonBenet Ramsey or Beaver Cleaver, we wouldn't be having this debate. The policy would never have been enacted and we wouldn't have the gulags overflowing. It's all about racism.
  #27  
Old 06-20-2018, 08:09 AM
Steve MB Steve MB is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Northern VA
Posts: 12,562
Quote:
Originally Posted by BobLibDem View Post
I do know one thing: If these immigrants looked like JonBenet Ramsey or Beaver Cleaver, we wouldn't be having this debate.
The least disreputable explanation for the fact that the girls have been Boko-Haram-disappeared is that images of young males are more effective at making Orangeanus' racist base wish they'd worn their brown pants.

Personally, I recommend setting aside this theory and Just Asking Questions[tm] about a man with 1)a history of 1a)misogyny and 1b)greed who 2)has seized control of a large number of young girls and 3)is in hock up to his eyeballs to the Russian Mafiya, who are 4)notorious human traffickers. Hey, if the presentation of those particular dots to be linked hurts their fee-fees all they have to do is provide unfettered media and humanitarian access to the girls.
__________________
The Internet: Nobody knows if you're a dog. Everybody knows if you're a jackass.

Last edited by Steve MB; 06-20-2018 at 08:10 AM.
  #28  
Old 06-20-2018, 08:20 AM
naita naita is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Norway
Posts: 5,563
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aspenglow View Post
You're right. He claimed the great Middle, who at that time didn't really know what they were getting. But they sure do now. I don't think you're parsing it correctly. The Middle is now fleeing him in droves.
I certainly hope that's the case, but the polls are not showing that so far. His numbers are as good as they've ever been except the first few weeks when the "let's give him a chance"-crowd approved of what they thought he might do.

Maybe there's a shift in the polls coming, but so far all the big outrages have only caused short lived blips in Trump popularity and disapproval.
  #29  
Old 06-20-2018, 08:46 AM
Chronos Chronos is offline
Charter Member
Moderator
 
Join Date: Jan 2000
Location: The Land of Cleves
Posts: 77,479
One thing that makes me think that this may actually hurt him: A lot of Republican voters do actually have one other avenue of information aside from Fox News. And pretty much every church in the country has not only condemned this practice, but blamed it on Trump and his minions.
  #30  
Old 06-20-2018, 09:26 AM
JohnT JohnT is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Antonio, TX
Posts: 20,004
Here in Texas, Cruz, Cornyn and Will Hurd (to name three) are downright frightened at what this means to them. Their internal polling is so horrible that last week Cruz was all "the law is the law" and this week he (and Cornyn) introduced legislation to stop this.

In addition, calls to their offices show extremely depressed and tired staffers who are tired of having to fend off frightened conservative Hispanics who are now wondering if they, or a family member, will be next

Meanwhile Will Hurd (representative) is appearing on as many local shows as he can to argue that this isn't HIS doing.

Rick Wilson, ex-GOP media guru, tweeted this yesterday:

https://twitter.com/TheRickWilson/st...153532928?s=19

"Well, well, well.

Who's teacher NOW?

Pollster for one of Trump's most passionate, white-hot, flame-on ride-or-die defenders sends:

"We have about a week before XXXXXXXX bails on Trump. The numbers are THAT bad." "

This may play well in Indiana, but in Texas it is a political disaster for the Republicans, especially those who need Hispanic votes to win.
  #31  
Old 06-20-2018, 09:39 AM
wguy123 wguy123 is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
Posts: 1,250
His Deplorables see this issue, not as a bug, but a feature. They are eating it up and showing why "deplorables" is so spot on.

However, I'm hopeful that it will push enough non-deplorables to get to the voting booth and show we aren't a nation of racist, bigoted, vile people.
  #32  
Old 06-20-2018, 09:53 AM
BobLibDem BobLibDem is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Location: Home 07 NCAA HockeyChamps
Posts: 20,305
Quote:
Originally Posted by wguy123 View Post
His Deplorables see this issue, not as a bug, but a feature. They are eating it up and showing why "deplorables" is so spot on.

However, I'm hopeful that it will push enough non-deplorables to get to the voting booth and show we aren't a nation of racist, bigoted, vile people.
Yes, you can win an election by getting 100% of the racist vote and 1/3 of everyone else. That's what Donald did. However, this issue has legs and it won't be nearly as easy to get the 1/3 of the non-racist vote.
  #33  
Old 06-20-2018, 09:54 AM
TriPolar TriPolar is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: rhode island
Posts: 38,885
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
One thing that makes me think that this may actually hurt him: A lot of Republican voters do actually have one other avenue of information aside from Fox News. And pretty much every church in the country has not only condemned this practice, but blamed it on Trump and his minions.
Hurting Trump doesn't have to hurt the congressional candidates if they oppose him on just this one issue. He could even give them the opportunity to 'solve' the problem as just the Republican party instead of having them join Democrats in a bipartisan effort. Timing is pretty critical here, if this isn't an issue in September then it may not matter at all, and it is also serving as a distraction from bigger issues like the trade war we are going to lose and our economy overloading its foundation.
  #34  
Old 06-20-2018, 09:59 AM
JohnT JohnT is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Antonio, TX
Posts: 20,004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steve MB View Post
The least disreputable explanation for the fact that the girls have been Boko-Haram-disappeared is that images of young males are more effective at making Orangeanus' racist base wish they'd worn their brown pants.

Personally, I recommend setting aside this theory and Just Asking Questions[tm] about a man with 1)a history of 1a)misogyny and 1b)greed who 2)has seized control of a large number of young girls and 3)is in hock up to his eyeballs to the Russian Mafiya, who are 4)notorious human traffickers. Hey, if the presentation of those particular dots to be linked hurts their fee-fees all they have to do is provide unfettered media and humanitarian access to the girls.
I would like to thank you for this post, which I read part of aloud to Ted Cruz's and John Cornyn's staff this morning.

Ted Cruz's guy said "The Senator has already proposed legislation..."

"Which will not pass because he has to get approval from the white supremacists in the Republican party, which they will not give and, in fact, with the President's words yesterday is already dead in the water. And the Senator knows this.

Listen. You have a President who is an admitted sex offender and rampant misogynist, one in debt to Russian gangsters who have a history of human sex trafficking... and now this man has taken young girls from their families with no sight of them since.

I know I don't have to draw the dots here, right?"

Again, thanks.
  #35  
Old 06-20-2018, 10:02 AM
Czarcasm Czarcasm is offline
Charter Member
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 56,403
Quote:
Originally Posted by Chronos View Post
One thing that makes me think that this may actually hurt him: A lot of Republican voters do actually have one other avenue of information aside from Fox News. And pretty much every church in the country has not only condemned this practice, but blamed it on Trump and his minions.
That would matter if Trump gave a shit, but he already knows that he won't be impeached and he thinks that there are enough people with hate in their heart who will support him if he leaves no doubt that he is on their side. He could do something about this problem with one phone call...but then he would lose some of his base.
  #36  
Old 06-20-2018, 10:08 AM
naita naita is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Norway
Posts: 5,563
Quote:
Originally Posted by TriPolar View Post
Hurting Trump doesn't have to hurt the congressional candidates if they oppose him on just this one issue. He could even give them the opportunity to 'solve' the problem as just the Republican party instead of having them join Democrats in a bipartisan effort. Timing is pretty critical here, if this isn't an issue in September then it may not matter at all, and it is also serving as a distraction from bigger issues like the trade war we are going to lose and our economy overloading its foundation.
Their problem is that this brings to the forefront divisions in the GOP. Parts of Trump's base see Sessions' "Scare them off" strategy as a great idea. The will be less energized to go and vote for someone who made it go away, unless Trump scores some major concessions on immigration through it. But if it doesn't go away, the GOP voters that aren't proud deplorable will likewise have less motivation.

I agree that it might go away as an issue voters remember in September, but even if it distracts from the trade ware issues now, those are issues that will undoubtedly still be with us in September, unless they turn out to be overblown and Trump actually wins a trade war. (Not very likely. At best he can roll over quickly and start spinning the loss as a victory.)
  #37  
Old 06-20-2018, 10:20 AM
TriPolar TriPolar is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: rhode island
Posts: 38,885
Quote:
Originally Posted by naita View Post
Their problem is that this brings to the forefront divisions in the GOP. Parts of Trump's base see Sessions' "Scare them off" strategy as a great idea. The will be less energized to go and vote for someone who made it go away, unless Trump scores some major concessions on immigration through it. But if it doesn't go away, the GOP voters that aren't proud deplorable will likewise have less motivation.
The loss of votes from Trump's Nazi base through opposition within the party could be matched or surpassed by the disenchanted Republican mainstream showing up at the polls and keeping the fence sitters from voting for a Democrat. The Republican mainstream always wants to vote for a Republican, this could be their excuse to do so in the spite of all the other problems they see within the party. Most voters are like this, using a single issue as the justification for what is a simple tribal party affiliation.
  #38  
Old 06-20-2018, 10:25 AM
Buck Godot Buck Godot is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Location: MD outside DC
Posts: 4,840
I think we can also pretty much kiss goodbye any hope the GOP had of wooing conservative Hispanics.
  #39  
Old 06-20-2018, 11:20 AM
JohnT JohnT is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Antonio, TX
Posts: 20,004
The past 30 minutes has been full of rumors and speculation that Trump is going to end the policy.


https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/stat...475818497?s=19
  #40  
Old 06-20-2018, 11:37 AM
Procrustus Procrustus is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2007
Location: Pacific NW.
Posts: 10,801
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnT View Post
The past 30 minutes has been full of rumors and speculation that Trump is going to end the policy.


https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/stat...475818497?s=19
More winning.
  #41  
Old 06-20-2018, 11:40 AM
Czarcasm Czarcasm is offline
Charter Member
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Apr 1999
Location: Portland, OR
Posts: 56,403
Quote:
Originally Posted by Procrustus View Post
More winning.
The same Republicans that condemned him will now thank and praise him for stopping this...much the way a battered spouse thanks her/his spouse for stopping the beating.
  #42  
Old 06-20-2018, 11:58 AM
Steve MB Steve MB is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2002
Location: Northern VA
Posts: 12,562
Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnT View Post
Listen. You have a President who is an admitted sex offender and rampant misogynist, one in debt to Russian gangsters who have a history of human sex trafficking... and now this man has taken young girls from their families with no sight of them since.

I know I don't have to draw the dots here, right?"
Another dot:

Quote:
EXCLUSIVE: Children from the southern border are being brought to NYC after being separated from their families. Overnight, @joshrobin captured video of unusual activity at a foster agency in East Harlem. #MorningsOn1
The "unusual activity" consists of several of the girls being clandestinely herded into cars at about 1:00 AM, several of them with heads covered to conceal their faces.
__________________
The Internet: Nobody knows if you're a dog. Everybody knows if you're a jackass.
  #43  
Old 06-20-2018, 12:09 PM
TriPolar TriPolar is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: rhode island
Posts: 38,885
Quote:
Originally Posted by Czarcasm View Post
The same Republicans that condemned him will now thank and praise him for stopping this...much the way a battered spouse thanks her/his spouse for stopping the beating.
Yup. See, we need to be sympathetic to those poor Republicans because they've suffered more than those children put in different concentration camps than their parents.
  #44  
Old 06-20-2018, 12:30 PM
Ashtura Ashtura is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 906
Well Trump just said he intends to sign an executive order which will keep families together in detention. I wonder who is going to sue to block this first?
  #45  
Old 06-20-2018, 01:00 PM
JohnT JohnT is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jul 2001
Location: San Antonio, TX
Posts: 20,004
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashtura View Post
Well Trump just said he intends to sign an executive order which will keep families together in detention. I wonder who is going to sue to block this first?
Yes, that is the plan. To violate a 1997 law which limits detention to 20 days, get sued, then complain that the "liberal judge" is soft on immigration.

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trumps-ploy
  #46  
Old 06-20-2018, 02:08 PM
Ashtura Ashtura is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Aug 2003
Posts: 906
My bet is he'll do what the article says and say the "liberal judge" wants to keep children separated from their families.
  #47  
Old 06-20-2018, 03:38 PM
Fiveyearlurker Fiveyearlurker is offline
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2004
Posts: 5,616
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ashtura View Post
Well Trump just said he intends to sign an executive order which will keep families together in detention. I wonder who is going to sue to block this first?
They actualy spelled "separation" wrong in the name of the executive order.
  #48  
Old 06-20-2018, 03:51 PM
ShadowFacts ShadowFacts is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 3,125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fiveyearlurker View Post
They actualy spelled "separation" wrong in the name of the executive order.
An unusually perfect mnemonic to help always spell it right: Separation has "a rat" in it.

(Never more so than now.)
  #49  
Old 06-20-2018, 11:42 PM
EddyTeddyFreddy EddyTeddyFreddy is offline
Charter Member
 
Join Date: Jun 2003
Location: Exurbia, No'thuh Bawst'n
Posts: 12,976
Quote:
Originally Posted by Czarcasm View Post
AP reveals that there are three shelters in Southern Texas...for babies and toddlers.
My Beloved is in tears about this and I can't tell her it isn't as bad as it seems, ghodmotherfuckingdamnitalltofuckinghell.
Hey, not to worry; I'm sure all those infants and toddlers will be ever so much better off in the wonderful homes their buyers on the adoption black market will give them.

At least the healthy, attractive, salable ones.
  #50  
Old 06-21-2018, 07:46 AM
septimus septimus is online now
Guest
 
Join Date: Dec 2009
Location: The Land of Smiles
Posts: 16,449
Quote:
Originally Posted by Aspenglow View Post
The Middle is now fleeing him in droves....
Uh ... define "droves"? According to Gallup Trump's approval rating of 45% last week is as high as it's ever been, tieing the record set the week of his inauguration. (An optimistic note is that, I think, the "Don't Know" cohort is smaller now.)

Predictwise's estimate of the chance for a Democratic Speaker of the 2019 House of Representatives, which reached a high of 69% on April 14th, was 56% on June 5th and has now recovered to 60%.
Reply

Bookmarks

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is Off
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 02:35 AM.

Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.7
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions, Inc.

Send questions for Cecil Adams to: cecil@straightdope.com

Send comments about this website to: webmaster@straightdope.com

Terms of Use / Privacy Policy

Advertise on the Straight Dope!
(Your direct line to thousands of the smartest, hippest people on the planet, plus a few total dipsticks.)

Copyright 2018 STM Reader, LLC.

 
Copyright © 2017