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  #3901  
Old 02-17-2018, 05:33 PM
Sage Rat Sage Rat is offline
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Originally Posted by ganthet View Post
Well, he was a businessman but he was an East Coast metropolitan real estate businessman/developer. His product mostly sold itself as real estate values increased and increased as the population did. His cheap-skating or outright cheating his contractors seems to be the mechanism for ensuring profits. He seems to think his paltry, nouveau riche salesmanship was the secret to his success instead of the rising market and has spun that myth into his entire life. He seems to have forgotten that it was a myth and therefore vastly overrates his competence and knowledge in all areas.
No, he failed in business. He survives the same way that other celebrities do, by selling his image to people who can do business. And, like him, most celebrities are living beyond their means just no one cares because their celebrity means that they can always just generate more money.

Last edited by Sage Rat; 02-17-2018 at 05:34 PM.
  #3902  
Old 02-17-2018, 06:14 PM
drad dog drad dog is offline
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Originally Posted by Sage Rat View Post
He's not particularly different in depositions. He comes across as blissfully unaware and mostly destructive to his own businesses by denying and allowing projects to progress based on the internal politics of himself and his entourage.

To the extent that he has won most of his court cases, I suspect that it's a matter that:

1) He doesn't get deposed in most of them.
2) He has more money to dump into his lawyers than most of his opponents do.
3) His businesses are so poorly documented that you simply can't prove anything against him.
I don't think so. Poorly documented businesses aren't safe from prosecution because it's too complicated to go there.

I've seen some deposition footage and he seems much more self aware, in fact it was the point of showing the footage. If he had behaved in those occasions like he does now he wouldn't have made it without bad outcomes. It's impossible to go through a deposition by giving out stream of consciousness answers without trouble.
  #3903  
Old 02-17-2018, 09:54 PM
Fair Rarity Fair Rarity is offline
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There is exactly zero chance that Trump is ever going to be in prison, no matter what is eventually revealed to be the state of his involvement. We simply don't do that to elected Presidents, and it's not a precedent anybody's going to want to set now.
I was born post-Nixon, but I still get angry at Ford for pardoning him (while at the same time I can see he had to do it).

I don't believe for a second our congress in 2018 would even send a formal rebuke much less formal charges and conviction, so my doubts about FEDERAL prison are great. You know because when you're a star, they let you do it.

But as to the core "we would never ever do that"? I think if there is a big enough blue wave to flip congress (maybe not the senate or maybe just to a one or two vote margin), not sending him to jail *if* serious criminal activity is absolutely crystal clear, knowing, active participation, pre- and post-election... the backlash would be bad for the Democrats. It does look terrible for us to throw a president in jail, but I think it looks worse to let someone get away with it.

Politically, the best solution (assuming he wasn't president anymore) would be to drag out hearings and hope the Big Macs get him first. Then no one over reacted, under reacted, etc.

So maybe no elected official wants to set that precedent, but if not for Trump (again, assuming our worst theories are true), then for whom?

And if congress wusses out, the states aren't going to let it go.

I give prison about 20% chance. Big Macs 70%. Wildcard 10%.
  #3904  
Old 02-17-2018, 10:30 PM
The Tooth The Tooth is offline
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If he's a criminal, he should be imprisoned for his crime. The fact a small portion of your population bought red hats and clapped their hands for him doesn't matter. To whom would it look terrible? His fans? There's no need to placate them any more than there was a need to placate O.J. Simpson fans. The rest of the world? We'd be grateful. And impressed.
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  #3905  
Old 02-17-2018, 10:43 PM
Aspenglow Aspenglow is offline
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Originally Posted by TimeWinder View Post
There is exactly zero chance that Trump is ever going to be in prison, no matter what is eventually revealed to be the state of his involvement. We simply don't do that to elected Presidents, and it's not a precedent anybody's going to want to set now.
A lot of new precedents have been set with this "president."

This is a bad situation such as we've never faced before. Like Fair Rarity, I remember Nixon and Watergate. I was young, but I lived through it. And same as Fair Rarity, even though I understand Ford's reasoning in issuing the pardon, it never sat well with me. If no citizen is above the law, then no citizen should be above a just punishment for what they are proved to have done.

Compared to Nixon, I consider what Trump has likely done to be far, far worse. If true, he has not only betrayed our country for his own selfish gain. He has betrayed it to a foreign country with hostile intentions toward the US and the whole of Western democracy for his own selfish gain.

He may never see an orange jump suit while he remains in the White House. After he is no longer "president"? All bets are off.
  #3906  
Old 02-17-2018, 11:24 PM
Arizona Mike Arizona Mike is offline
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Какая погода в Санкт-Петербурге?
Твоя мать знает.
  #3907  
Old 02-18-2018, 01:01 AM
Sage Rat Sage Rat is offline
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Originally Posted by drad dog View Post
I've seen some deposition footage and he seems much more self aware, in fact it was the point of showing the footage. If he had behaved in those occasions like he does now he wouldn't have made it without bad outcomes. It's impossible to go through a deposition by giving out stream of consciousness answers without trouble.
I wasn't meaning to imply that he was completely unchanged during depositions, just in the ways that I specified.

Last edited by Sage Rat; 02-18-2018 at 01:01 AM.
  #3908  
Old 02-18-2018, 02:56 AM
Johnny Ace Johnny Ace is online now
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I see somebody found their Cyrillic font. I always thought Mike's accent was a little funny.

I just caught Real Time, and I've come to a conclusion: Vicente Fox is one funny dude.

And big. He dwarfs Bill Maher. Maybe we could get him to wrestle Trump.

Last edited by Johnny Ace; 02-18-2018 at 02:57 AM.
  #3909  
Old 02-18-2018, 07:04 AM
tomndebb tomndebb is offline
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Originally Posted by Kolak of Twilo View Post
Какая погода в Санкт-Петербурге?
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Originally Posted by Arizona Mike View Post
Твоя мать знает.
Stick to English, please.

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  #3910  
Old 02-18-2018, 07:10 AM
tomndebb tomndebb is offline
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Unless Pence gets brought down in the same series of actions, he would surely pardon Trump.

There is a difference with the Nixon/Ford situation. Nixon did not conspire with a foreign power and, at the time Nixon resigned, he still had a substantial base. Trump squeaked in with an anti-Hilary base and has been losing support (outside of Alabama) for the entire duration of his term.
  #3911  
Old 02-18-2018, 04:46 PM
Truman Burbank Truman Burbank is offline
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Originally Posted by tomndebb View Post
Unless Pence gets brought down in the same series of actions, he would surely pardon Trump.

There is a difference with the Nixon/Ford situation. Nixon did not conspire with a foreign power and, at the time Nixon resigned, he still had a substantial base. Trump squeaked in with an anti-Hilary base and has been losing support (outside of Alabama) for the entire duration of his term.
I keep a loose grip on the polling, current T approval #s are about 8-10 over the last Nixon polls before his resignation.
  #3912  
Old 02-18-2018, 06:35 PM
E-DUB E-DUB is offline
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Let us not forget that trump is the one who popularized the notion of "locking up" one's opponents. Seeing him go to jail would be justice in both absolute and poetic terms.
  #3913  
Old 02-18-2018, 09:35 PM
Fair Rarity Fair Rarity is offline
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Originally Posted by tomndebb View Post
Unless Pence gets brought down in the same series of actions, he would surely pardon Trump.
And we can hope Pence gets ousted first. I mean, this is The Stupidest Timeline, but it doesn't mean we can't mirror what happened before. Literally one of the first WH guests after the inauguration was Kissinger.

I mean, there is a reasonable chance Pence could be out first, and not just political machinations. His ties with Manafort are stronger. Plus despite his general awfulness, there seems to maybe be a semblance of a person behind those beady little eyes, whereas Trump is just empty or filled with empty styrofoam 80s Filet O Fish boxes.

So if no VP (especially no VP Pence), there isn't a payback motive to pardon.

Plus the brilliance of Mueller involving state AGs is that he can be federally pardoned, tarnishing the legacy of the pardoner forever, but he can still wear an orange jumpsuit in upstate New York. Or Florida. Or Maryland. Or Delaware.
  #3914  
Old 02-18-2018, 09:52 PM
Aspenglow Aspenglow is offline
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I think it's very telling that Mueller has not sought an interview with Pence, who lied repeatedly on camera, knowingly obstructing justice. As I've said before, if you look around the poker table and you can't tell who's the sucker...

Pence is one of the "big fish." I just don't believe Mueller is going to give him a pass. I may be wrong, of course, but I just don't.

I don't see a semblance of a person. I see a zealot. He's dangerous -- but he's not charismatic.
  #3915  
Old 02-18-2018, 10:16 PM
Sage Rat Sage Rat is offline
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Originally Posted by Aspenglow View Post
I think it's very telling that Mueller has not sought an interview with Pence, who lied repeatedly on camera, knowingly obstructing justice. As I've said before, if you look around the poker table and you can't tell who's the sucker...

Pence is one of the "big fish." I just don't believe Mueller is going to give him a pass. I may be wrong, of course, but I just don't.

I don't see a semblance of a person. I see a zealot. He's dangerous -- but he's not charismatic.
I suspect that it just means that Pence was smart enough to stay 20 miles away from everything Trump and his campaign and his presidency are up to.
  #3916  
Old 02-18-2018, 10:41 PM
Aspenglow Aspenglow is offline
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Originally Posted by Sage Rat View Post
I suspect that it just means that Pence was smart enough to stay 20 miles away from everything Trump and his campaign and his presidency are up to.
He hasn't, though. Elijah Cummings warned Pence directly about Flynn's conflicts of interest in a letter dated November 18, 2016. Pence acknowledged receipt of the letter. Pence knowingly lied about Trump's reasons for firing Comey. He was in the meetings where the pretense was discussed and agreed upon, then went out and lied about it to the press. He knowingly lied about Mike Flynn's phone calls with Kislyak. He was in the meetings where Flynn's phone calls to Kislyak were discussed about the true purpose of the calls (to discuss sanctions). He knowingly lied about his awareness of Flynn's being investigated by the FBI. He was the head of the transition team, for goodness' sake. Do you honestly think he didn't know and wasn't told by McGahn after Sally Yates warned of Flynn's situation?

He's up to his neck in it. He sure didn't stay "20 miles away" from it all.

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