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  #151  
Old 11-07-2017, 07:18 AM
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Depends on your definition of “quickly.”
I would define "quickly" as the time it takes to replicate a product.
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  #152  
Old 11-07-2017, 07:50 AM
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I would define "quickly" as the time it takes to replicate a product.
So, five years is "quickly." I don't agree, but whatever.
  #153  
Old 11-07-2017, 08:36 AM
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I'm not a fan or Tesla cars or electric cars in general: hate the design, hate the lack of engine/exhaust noise, hate the range anxiety and impracticality for extended trips.

However, here'a a good youtube video on the Model 3 by Doug DeMuro, a pretty entertaining and knowledgeable automobile enthusiast.

Doesn't change my mind but interesting nevertheless.
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  #154  
Old 11-07-2017, 08:38 AM
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So, five years is "quickly." I don't agree, but whatever.
Where are you getting 5 years? There is nothing in a Tesla that Toyota or GM can't duplicate in the next model year if they feel there's a profit to be made. As has been pointed out, electric cars have far fewer parts in them.
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  #155  
Old 11-07-2017, 08:40 AM
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Where are you getting 5 years? There is nothing in a Tesla that Toyota or GM can't duplicate in the next model year if they feel there's a profit to be made. As has been pointed out, electric cars have far fewer parts in them.
Nonsense. in order to get that 200-300 miles of range per charge, you have to have a lot of battery in the vehicle, to the point where you're almost building the car around the battery. You can't bung that kind of capacity onto an existing vehicle architecture within a year. at best you'll get a "compliance car" like the Fiat 500ev and Ford Focus Electric, both with about 70-90 miles of range (and all storage capacity sacrificed to the battery.)
  #156  
Old 11-07-2017, 08:50 AM
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I'm not a fan or Tesla cars or electric cars in general: hate the design, hate the lack of engine/exhaust noise, hate the range anxiety and impracticality for extended trips.
...
Different strokes ... The lack of noise is exactly their best feature.

If I could kill every unmuffled pickup truck, muscle car, and motorcycle driver who maliciously vandalizes my neighborhood every day I'd soon be the deadliest man to ever live. It's a hundred a day easy.

Last edited by LSLGuy; 11-07-2017 at 08:51 AM.
  #157  
Old 11-07-2017, 09:05 AM
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If I could kill every unmuffled pickup truck, muscle car, and motorcycle driver who maliciously vandalizes my neighborhood every day I'd soon be the deadliest man to ever live. It's a hundred a day easy.
Agreed. Most after market exhaust mods are an idiotic menace to domestic tranquility.
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  #158  
Old 11-07-2017, 09:28 AM
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Originally Posted by QuickSilver View Post
I'm not a fan or Tesla cars or electric cars in general: hate the design, hate the lack of engine/exhaust noise, hate the range anxiety and impracticality for extended trips.

However, here'a a good youtube video on the Model 3 by Doug DeMuro, a pretty entertaining and knowledgeable automobile enthusiast.

Doesn't change my mind but interesting nevertheless.
That's a much better video than the ones that popped up when it was first released. Techies will like it, Those who like standard controls will hate it.
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Last edited by Magiver; 11-07-2017 at 09:29 AM.
  #159  
Old 11-07-2017, 09:44 AM
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I'm only 42 seconds in and the trim gap between the front and rear door is driving me crazy. I don't know if he addresses it or not, but that is all I'm noticing on that car. That is not a good first impression.

I am not a Tesla detractor. I think they're very cool and if it suited my needs I would consider buying one. But not that one in the video.
  #160  
Old 11-07-2017, 09:58 AM
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I'm only 42 seconds in and the trim gap between the front and rear door is driving me crazy. I don't know if he addresses it or not, but that is all I'm noticing on that car. That is not a good first impression.

I am not a Tesla detractor. I think they're very cool and if it suited my needs I would consider buying one. But not that one in the video.
While I like extra features in a car I viscerally hate non-traditional controls. I couldn't hate that computer screen more. I want physical controls I can operate without looking down.

Tesla was going for the cool factor and IMO they nailed it.
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  #161  
Old 11-07-2017, 09:58 AM
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Originally Posted by gregorio View Post
I'm only 42 seconds in and the trim gap between the front and rear door is driving me crazy. I don't know if he addresses it or not, but that is all I'm noticing on that car. That is not a good first impression.

I am not a Tesla detractor. I think they're very cool and if it suited my needs I would consider buying one. But not that one in the video.
He doesn't in this video, but he has in past videos involving the fit and finish of the Tesla S.
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  #162  
Old 11-07-2017, 10:02 AM
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While I like extra features in a car I viscerally hate non-traditional controls. I couldn't hate that computer screen more. I want physical controls I can operate without looking down.
Agreed. It's like driving your smart phone. Fucking ridiculous.
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  #163  
Old 11-07-2017, 10:05 AM
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I don't thnk I've voiced this before but there is less difference in an EV between mundane performance and blistering speed as compared to an ICE car.

The Dodge Demon is a 10 second assembly of full-out racing parts and differs greatly from a Dodge Dart. It is priced accordingly. A Model 3 is not much different than Tesla's fastest car from a parts perspective and doesn't need a large price difference. We could be driving the EV equivalent of Dodge Demons for little more than the cost of a Dodge dart.
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Last edited by Magiver; 11-07-2017 at 10:07 AM.
  #164  
Old 11-07-2017, 10:20 AM
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The video notes that the difference between the base range car (~220mi) and the top of the range car (~350mi) is just short of $10K. I believe that's down to the batteries. The only other physical options are larger/nicer wheels. So $35K (base) to near $50k (long range, loaded).
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  #165  
Old 11-07-2017, 12:09 PM
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Where are you getting 5 years? There is nothing in a Tesla that Toyota or GM can't duplicate in the next model year if they feel there's a profit to be made. As has been pointed out, electric cars have far fewer parts in them.
Except for the provable fact that design of the Bolt started in 2012, it was previewed in 2015, and went on sale in late late 2016. Sure, that's "the next model year," in Elon-speak.

And VW plans to compete with purpose-designed EVs starting in the 2020-2025 timeframe, some of which have been under development for a couple years now. But sure, that's "the next model year," in VW clean-diesel speak.

Last edited by Ravenman; 11-07-2017 at 12:09 PM.
  #166  
Old 11-07-2017, 02:30 PM
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Except for the provable fact that design of the Bolt started in 2012, it was previewed in 2015, and went on sale in late late 2016. Sure, that's "the next model year," in Elon-speak.

And VW plans to compete with purpose-designed EVs starting in the 2020-2025 timeframe, some of which have been under development for a couple years now. But sure, that's "the next model year," in VW clean-diesel speak.
the Bolt was a new platform for GM. You could say it took longer than that for any research they did into a totally new car. But that's different than kicking out next year's model of an existing car.

My point was that options can be duplicated by other manufacturers. Other car makers are watching what Tesla does and will incorporate anything they think will sell in their cars just as phone makers are watching Apple.
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  #167  
Old 11-07-2017, 11:48 PM
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Fixed that for you

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My point was that..
... I don't know what I'm talking about.
  #168  
Old 11-08-2017, 06:01 AM
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Well GM yes. They now have the EV platform. Changes to "the next model year" are not so hard once you have the platform (and the supply/production chain for the platform) established. Scaling up production if demand indicated such would still be an issue though. They are up to selling nearly 2800 a month now. If sustained that's running at 33K a year plus. (Sales have been trending up and were not on that track right out of the gate.)"Rumors" had their annual capacity at 25 to 30K with GM claiming that they could get to 50K if there was the need.

Suddenly building lots more, like how many Tesla is planning for, than that, they could not do in "the next model year."

That said many others will in fact be pretty ready to be able to make options that Tesla proves demand for available "quickly" because they have been building their EV platforms and prepping the supply chains for years.

Question for those in this thread on the Tesla 3 wait list: how much delay will you tolerate before you start seriously looking at the Bolt, which based on reviews sounds pretty comparable to what the Tesla 3 is expected to be?
  #169  
Old 11-08-2017, 07:20 AM
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Fixed that for you



... I don't know what I'm talking about.
The insult is out of place in this forum, and considering you've been warned previously for insulting the same poster on the very same topic, you really ought to know better. Do not repeat this behavior.
  #170  
Old 11-08-2017, 10:33 AM
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Agreed. It's like driving your smart phone. Fucking ridiculous.
I can see where they're going with it. The car remembers your side mirror, seat position, and steering wheel profile when you walk up to the car. Why do you need dedicated buttons for all that? Autoheadlights generally work flawlessly these days, why do they need a button too?

Why bother with a dedicated knob for A/C and vent controls when it'll already be preconditioned for you before you step inside?

Things like wiper interval adjustments and the glovebox i'm scratching my head at, although I probably only access the glovebox a few times a year on my current car.
  #171  
Old 11-08-2017, 10:43 AM
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Question for those in this thread on the Tesla 3 wait list: how much delay will you tolerate before you start seriously looking at the Bolt, which based on reviews sounds pretty comparable to what the Tesla 3 is expected to be?
Nobody who can plunk down a $1000 deposit on a future $45k car (you have to get the autopilot and glass roof/premium sound) is lacking reliable daily transportation. And you don't save any money buying a Bolt over a cheaper gasoline car with good MPG. If you want to save money, in fact, you should buy a used Prius....remember the discussion we had in another thread? A gen 3 prius isn't sexy, and it has anemic acceleration...but it's a sensible, economical vehicle. Kind of how people will see the Bolt. Except that GM doesn't have Toyota's history for quality, and you have to pay more than $25,000 for a new one. (there are a lot of incentives so it can be a lot less than sticker)

So I bet all the reservation holders will hold out. In my case, I'm going to wait until the second model year when they've fixed all the major issues and gotten the production rate to the point that you can buy a model 3 whenever you want.
  #172  
Old 11-08-2017, 10:48 AM
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Question for those in this thread on the Tesla 3 wait list: how much delay will you tolerate before you start seriously looking at the Bolt, which based on reviews sounds pretty comparable to what the Tesla 3 is expected to be?
If the bolt was $10k cheaper, maybe. But I'll probably just continue driving my current car instead for another year or two. In the event that my current car broke down during that time, I'd really consider leasing the Bolt until either Tesla has their act together, or more compelling EVs are available (Volvo?).

A lot of it also hinges around the tax rebate- if that gets scrapped, I have no real major incentive to buy a Model 3 right away. I'd normally prefer to wait a year or two for them to iron the bugs out.
  #173  
Old 11-08-2017, 11:51 AM
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If the bolt was $10k cheaper, maybe.
curious why you'd expect the Bolt to be $10,000 cheaper.
  #174  
Old 11-08-2017, 12:24 PM
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curious why you'd expect the Bolt to be $10,000 cheaper.
Front-wheel-drive. Macpherson strut front suspension. Torsion beam rear suspension. No dedicated supercharging network. No hardware for adaptive cruise control. 0-60 times about a full second longer.
  #175  
Old 11-08-2017, 01:01 PM
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I can see where they're going with it. The car remembers your side mirror, seat position, and steering wheel profile when you walk up to the car. Why do you need dedicated buttons for all that? Autoheadlights generally work flawlessly these days, why do they need a button too?
The purpose of dedicated buttons is ease of use. I have autoheadlights and routinely turn them on at dusk or dawn when the sun is in everyone's eyes and I want extra visibility. Also when it's raining out.

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Why bother with a dedicated knob for A/C and vent controls when it'll already be preconditioned for you before you step inside?
I've had auto climate control on a car and HATED it. I was always changing the temp control. Remote climate control is a great "techie" option I would also enjoy but that's a separate issue from ease of use.

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Things like wiper interval adjustments and the glovebox i'm scratching my head at, although I probably only access the glovebox a few times a year on my current car.
The thing is, we're talking about a handful of controls added to the car that makes things easier to use. I understand the need to stand out and be the car of the future but most people drive every day.

Previously I made a point about the potential distraction this can cause a driver and it's hardly limited to Tesla. It's risen to the level of the NHTSA. They're looking into standards for ease of use.

I have to wonder where these screens fit within current laws aimed at cell phones and other remote devices. It's against the law to handle a phone or GPS while driving in many places.

The nice thing about touch screens is that it's all software driven so voice commands are the natural extension of the screen. I can see a standardized command list agreed to by all manufactures.
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Last edited by Magiver; 11-08-2017 at 01:02 PM.
  #176  
Old 11-08-2017, 01:08 PM
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Front-wheel-drive.
that doesn't reduce cost.

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Macpherson strut front suspension. Torsion beam rear suspension.
Irrelevant for 99.9999% of on-road driving.

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No dedicated supercharging network. No hardware for adaptive cruise control. 0-60 times about a full second longer.
sounds more like "it's not a Tesla."
  #177  
Old 11-08-2017, 01:35 PM
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sounds more like "it's not a Tesla."
Apparently I was under the impression that things like "power", "vehicle handling/stability", and "ability to take on roadtrips with little inconvenience" , are somehow metrics worth evaluating when deciding to purchase a vehicle, but I guess all those things just get dismissed out of hand. Carry on.
  #178  
Old 11-08-2017, 02:15 PM
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that doesn't reduce cost.



Irrelevant for 99.9999% of on-road driving.



sounds more like "it's not a Tesla."
Hey, I asked. The answer is appreciated.

For some it may indeed be the badge more than anything else. I readily admit that that is one reason I would conversely shy away from the Tesla ... it screams announcing what it is and announcing that one is part of something and I prefer being ... understated. Not crazy about the name "Bolt" for the same reason. I do not think reacting to what the car is interpreted as saying about you is a poor reason.

If someone expects to drive long distances along a Tesla supercharger corridor then that network is a very pragmatic reason.. And if commuting in a car with a 0-60 of 5.6 seconds is much more appealing than in one with a 6.5 second one ... well you accelerate more aggressively than most of us do but such is your taste. It also has a higher top speed; that is of significance to some too. (The pep number I'd care most about would be the 30-50 number ... and I think either of these cars outperform anything else I've driven there.

I very much understand the wanting to be "future proofed" to being able to upgrade to more autonomous features as they become available.

I also think the Bolt looks nice but looks "practical" and not anywhere near "sexy." That may matter to some also.

The cars are comparable and the Bolt apparently quite impressive but they are far from identical.
  #179  
Old 11-08-2017, 03:29 PM
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No dedicated supercharging network.
I think I've said it before in this thread (if not others), I'm convinced that the vast majority of people who haven't yet bought an EV just simply assume that this is a problem.

For the vast majority of drivers, it isn't. People need to stop thinking of superchargers as gas stations, because for probably 95% or more of your driving, they are not. Your home is your gas station. For long-range EVs, you only need superchargers if you are making road trips of a few hundred miles or more, or you're an idiot who doesn't charge at night when you need to.

There are more CCS chargers than there are Tesla Superchargers. The only difference is that CCS chargers are clustered around areas in which people actually drive most of the time, and Superchargers are spaced out on freeways where people take road trips.

If you're spending a lot of time taking road trips, then frankly EVs probably aren't a good choice for you, period. But if you're like most people and do the vast amount of your driving within 50 miles of your home, having Superchargers on I-80 between Winnemucca and Salt Lake City is something you will never, ever care about.
  #180  
Old 11-08-2017, 08:36 PM
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If you're spending a lot of time taking road trips, then frankly EVs probably aren't a good choice for you, period. But if you're like most people and do the vast amount of your driving within 50 miles of your home, having Superchargers on I-80 between Winnemucca and Salt Lake City is something you will never, ever care about.
We clearly disagree on what constitutes a problem in people's minds. Spending a lot of time taking trips isn't the problem. Having to plan out the trip is the problem. If I want to drive from Key West to Anchorage there is no planning involved with an ICE car. Get in and go. With an EV it becomes a huge deal. Nothing changes if it's just a trip to the next state over or even from one end of the state to the other. I routinely travel more than 300 miles on a weekend trip.
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  #181  
Old 11-08-2017, 08:45 PM
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Certainly there are people who routinely drive 300 miles in a weekend.

There are also many people who never drive more than about 40 miles from home.

Both usages are real for millions of Americans each. One is more suited to current-tech EVs than is the other.
  #182  
Old 11-08-2017, 08:59 PM
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And even with a supercharger network, the time spent charging during those weekend trips is going to be onerous. It just isn’t like stopping for a 5 minute fill up.
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Old 11-08-2017, 09:20 PM
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Exactly LSLGuy. It will be a long time until any EV is a good choice for someone who want to be able to use that vehicle to drive from Key West to Anchorage without much planning. An ICE or minimally a PHEV is a much better choice for that particular utility. Even the supercharger network won't serve you well getting to and through Alaska.

OTOH routinely 300 miles over a weekend is no problem without superchargers or other DC fast charge so long as it is not much more than 200 in a day and you can charge overnight (particularly easy if you are driving around lots but still at home at night), or at stops, at a level 2 for at least 4 hours total during meals or other stops. (25 miles of range per hour so 4 hours gets you another 100.) That allows for a buffer so no range anxiety and for YMMV some.

The time spent would be inconsequential Ravenman - not "onerous" as the car is parked and left charging while you are doing other things, such as sleeping or eating or whatever. As opposed to having to be with the car at the gas station.

Some people will have wants that do not mesh with an EV ... and others have wants that an EV satisfies much better than an ICE does.

Last edited by DSeid; 11-08-2017 at 09:21 PM.
  #184  
Old 11-09-2017, 12:34 AM
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  #185  
Old 11-09-2017, 06:02 AM
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The time spent would be inconsequential Ravenman - not "onerous" as the car is parked and left charging while you are doing other things, such as sleeping or eating or whatever. As opposed to having to be with the car at the gas station.
Sure, if you need to recharge at lunchtime. That’s great! Otherwise, you may be stopping to kill at least thirty minutes while you find something to do while you’d rather be continuing on your Anchorage to Key West journey.

This is opposed to stopping at a gas station for all of five minutes, not thirty.

I’m saying this as an EV owner: it is much easier to own an EV around town than a gas car, because you never have to go out of your way to refuel. And it is much easier to refuel a gas car on a long trip, because it is so quick.
  #186  
Old 11-09-2017, 07:06 AM
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Sure, if you need to recharge at lunchtime. ...
You are confused and thinking about the Key West to Anchorage trip, not the more mundane 300 miles of driving over a week end that I was talking about. The former is a long trip; the latter is not.

The former is something that is indeed a task poorly suited for an EV and would require fast charge system and planning with half hour stops every three to four or so hours. (The Bolt has 238 and someone wanting to do that would opt for the larger Tesla 3 pack with its 310 mile range.)

The latter is something that many owners of EVs with 230 miles plus range could and likely will do with no specific times that one would need to recharge. 300 miles of driving over a weekend is much more time with the car parked various somewheres than it is being driven and pretty much any of that time is fine to use.
  #187  
Old 11-09-2017, 07:40 AM
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Do you drive an EV?
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Old 11-09-2017, 08:36 AM
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ETA. Should've refreshed first. This is ref DSeid's post 183 with which I agree.

The critical infrastructure innovation isn't supercharger networks as the EV equivalent of gas stations.

It's widespread intermediate level chargers at most hotels/motels and restaurants situated near interstates and lesser main highways.

e.g. I rarely take road trips. If I had could install a charger at home then even a mere 100mile EV would fit me perfectly. But when Hurricane Irma threatened I ended up combining evacuation with vacation into a "hurrication" as we Floridians call them.

That was 1200 miles of interstate driving over 2-plus days leaving and the same coming back. In an ICE car with no thought to when or where I might buy fuel or eat or sleep. We just went until we or the car got hungry or sleepy then stopped at the next appropriate establishment to fill the need. We had no idea where any of these would be; we were simply confident (enough) that they'd appear when needed.

Had I owned an EV and been confident that most Holiday Inns, Applebees, etc. had enough chargers for all comers, I'd have given no more thought to "range anxiety" than I did with my ICE.

We're not there today. But we will get there soon enough via a mostly bottom up organic process. IANA expert, but if there is any kind of charger standards war going on, that is the largest thing the nascent EV industry can do to shoot themselves in the foot / tire .

For the longer term, range anxiety is actually mostly "range angst": an free floating vague worry not really backed up by the facts that will come into being.


IOW, it's perfectly fine and correct for someone, e.g. Magiver, to say "Today's EVs with today's infrastructure don't work for my mission today."

It's error to generalize from that to "Therefore future EVs with future infrastructure will never work for my mission." or "That future of EVs and EV infrastructure will never happen at all."

Last edited by LSLGuy; 11-09-2017 at 08:41 AM.
  #189  
Old 11-09-2017, 09:15 AM
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Ravenman -

A PHEV. A Ford C Max Energi now 5 years old which does not have the greatest EV range but still with my usual commute most (non-frigid) days I'm pure EV and only some days running as a hybrid for some of it. Some days avoiding having to go out of pure EV mode by way of having a chance to charge up at the movie theater parking structure or near the restaurant, for example. The car has been a good choice as we have done the trips from Chicago to Maine to NJ and back, and multiple other all day driving trips, in it, which a pure EV would be poorly suited for. I absolutely love how rarely I need to waste time at a gas station.

The Nissan Leaf, even at its new 150 mile range and let alone at its previous 84 mile range, was not a great choice for me even without those long road trips. I do have the occasional 300 mile weekend and the over 150 in a day before getting back home to plug in for the night, and I'd rather not be a guest asking for a spot in the garage to plug my my car into. Even at my brother's it would be awkward. The Bolt and the Tesla 3, any EV with over 200 miles of range, would make those weekends brainless. The Leaf, even the new one, would be inadequate. I'd need to use my wife's hybrid on those days if I had that. I didn't want to do that so I crossed the Leaf off. Plus its build felt cheap to me. At the time I needed the three seats in the back so the Volt was off too. I also like that the C-Max does not scream anything: it is just a car.

This car should do me fine for a while. Barring something unforeseen my next car will be both pure EV and at least largely autonomous with V2V communication as well. I'm guessing it will be a Volvo. That might be five years and it might be ten but even if it is longer so long as I can keep those gas station runs this infrequent I'm fine.
  #190  
Old 11-09-2017, 09:38 AM
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Originally Posted by LSLGuy View Post

e.g. I rarely take road trips. If I had could install a charger at home then even a mere 100mile EV would fit me perfectly. But when Hurricane Irma threatened I ended up combining evacuation with vacation into a "hurrication" as we Floridians call them.

That was 1200 miles of interstate driving over 2-plus days leaving and the same coming back. In an ICE car with no thought to when or where I might buy fuel or eat or sleep. We just went until we or the car got hungry or sleepy then stopped at the next appropriate establishment to fill the need. We had no idea where any of these would be; we were simply confident (enough) that they'd appear when needed.
the flip side is that an event leading to such an evacuation can cause "gas runs" and stations run out. Then you're up a creek regardless.
  #191  
Old 11-09-2017, 03:18 PM
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Agreed. We left a couple days early vs even the early birds and were later watching the news of folks stranded on the interstate with no gasoline for a couple hundred miles, and none coming for a week.

The EV corollary I suppose is the hotel along the interstate that has 100 rooms, 100 parking spaces, and 40 charger stations once highway EVs become commonplace. They're usually at 70% occupancy unless there's an evacuation or similar going on. Then carloads of folks are doubling up in rooms and lots more people need, not want, to charge overnight.


It's always the case that modern finance capitalism is real good at catering to base demand and sucks at providing for surges since that represents idle capital most of the time. We can smoosh the toothpaste tube all we want, but shortages under peak demand are gonna be commonplace someplace somehow.
  #192  
Old 11-09-2017, 06:27 PM
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It's always the case that modern finance capitalism is real good at catering to base demand and sucks at providing for surges since that represents idle capital most of the time. We can smoosh the toothpaste tube all we want, but shortages under peak demand are gonna be commonplace someplace somehow.
An eternity in thread time, I half proposed a solution to this problem.
Apparently, autonomous cars are actually going to be mass deployed soon-ish. Google has let some of theirs loose as of 2 days ago, with no safety driver. The 2021 date for the beginning of mass deployment sounds plausible.

Anyways, once there are vast autonomous car fleets, some of them are going to be hybrids and most will be full electric. So responding to a disaster would in theory be a matter of making the right mouseclicks, and deploying every hybrid autonomous vehicle within a couple states of Florida to meet the huge surge in demand of people trying to escape the next big one.

Or, other option is that simple the residents of the tip of Florida, and all those folks who do those intermittent 300 mile+ roadtrips can get hybrids, and everyone else can get pure electric. Automakers could readily make 2 models that are almost identical, but one has a range extender engine and the other has a void or a storage bin or an extra battery in that space. Like how the i3 is packaged.

Last edited by SamuelA; 11-09-2017 at 06:31 PM.
  #193  
Old 11-09-2017, 08:01 PM
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Ravenman -

A PHEV.
The reason I asked is that I’ve done weekend trips in my i3 and your assertions about how convenient fast charging is during these trips does not match my experience.

For example, on one trip my hotel didn’t have a convenient level 1 plug. So the first thing I had to do in the morning is go find a CCS charger, which was on the opposite side of a huge shopping mall from where I wanted to eat breakfast. Literally a mile walk to the restaurant.

Then another time, I couldn’t fully recharge at the hotel, and we wanted to eat lunch at a winery, which meant that I had to go to a fast charger and sit in the car for 15 minutes during a rainstorm so I would have enough range to get to the vineyard and back.

There have been a few times where it has been convenient to park, fast charge, and run an errand or two. But they aren’t many examples of this for me, because (a) it is rare to need to use a CCS and (b) it’s not common to find a CCS fast charger where I want to go, as opposed to planning a trip out of my way to get to a fast charger.

So when you tell me that fast charging is easy - just go get lunch! the time is “inconsequential!” - you’re telling someone who owns an EV and has been annoyed about how consequential the inconvienence is, that I am wrong about my firsthand experiences with an EV on weekend trips; when you clearly are not speaking from experience.

Last edited by Ravenman; 11-09-2017 at 08:02 PM.
  #194  
Old 11-10-2017, 05:54 AM
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...
Anyways, once there are vast autonomous car fleets, some of them are going to be hybrids and most will be full electric. So responding to a disaster would in theory be a matter of making the right mouseclicks, and deploying every hybrid autonomous vehicle within a couple states of Florida to meet the huge surge in demand of people trying to escape the next big one.
...
And what do you suppose the people in those "couple of states near Florida" will use for transportation to get to work while all "their" local cars are busy ferrying en masse to the tip of FL? And where will all those cars charge as they do so?

And who will be paying for the deadhead time and mileage? Remember that a car will drive empty from, say, Atlanta to Miami, pick up an evacuee household, carry them back to, say, Atlanta then do it again a week later in reverse. The point being there's between 200 and 1000 miles of extra ferrying above and beyond the normal ferrying that's part and parcel of autonomous vehicle ops.

One solution to paying for the ferrying is to charge premium prices for evacuation services. Sounds economically sensible, but just like price gouging for board-up supplies or generators or gasoline is illegal, it's a pretty good bet that price gouging for evacuation transportation services will be (and should be) illegal.


Yes, I get the basic economic / physics principle that if you spread out a surge in demand over a larger area or a longer time you can ameliorate some of the worst effects of the peak. But you don't alter the total amount of demand in the surge. You're just moving it around in space or time. In fact, given the big bump in ferrying required, you're actually increasing road miles driven by about 2x over what the actual evacuation demand is.

Do not mistake individual technological possibility with collective economic and political outcomes. Can some of this be done? Sure. Is it a magic wand that easy peasy fixes the whole problem with a couple mouseclicks? Not even a little bit.


The problem with most futurist SF is it assumes nearly infinite capital demanding roughly negligible rates of return. So it can be deployed almost willy nilly in pursuit of social goods, public convenience, etc. Our future may indeed have a lot more capital available than we have today. But nothing in human history suggests the return the owners will demand will be significantly less than they demand today.

Last edited by LSLGuy; 11-10-2017 at 05:54 AM.
  #195  
Old 11-10-2017, 08:38 AM
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The reason I asked is that I’ve done weekend trips in my i3 and your assertions about how convenient fast charging is during these trips does not match my experience. ...
One, yeah an i3. Pure EV 81 miles range? Roughly a third of range of the Bolt and a bit more than a quarter the range of the bigger battery optioned Tesla 3? Or the PHEV (REx) version of the i3 that adds a whopping 1.9 gallons of gas driving range too (pretty useless)? Like the Leaf a great pure commuting car and a complete fail for anything other than that. Not a car to use for driving 300 miles over a weekend, even if you are ending at home to charge each night after a lot of local stuff. There are stretches from Chicago west on I-88 that the REx version could not make it from rest stop to rest stop! I know, I've traveled it over week ends and there and back same day many times with a kid who went to Knox College in Galesburg. Heck, for Thanksgiving we are traveling fairly local from my just West of Chicago home to Kenosha just over the Wisconsin border. It's about just 60 miles each way, just 120ish round trip that day. No worry for any 200+ range EV, not even close. No worry for my PHEV. But for an i3, even the REx one, it's range anxiety and planning. Using experience with an i3 to inform about driving a car with three times the electric range is not realistic. If you bought that car thinking to use it for anything other than pure commuting, well you should have thought again.

Two, acknowledged that if your 300 miles of week end driving does not include either a place that will at least give you access to plug in your portable 110 charge overnight, or some level 2 spots near where you might want to stop for a bit, then it could be a challenge. A 3 hour drive into the countryside stopping at some random motel might not work. Pretty easy to find ChargePoints in most metropolitan areas and not too difficult to arrange to stay at a hotel that has level 2 in many week end level tourist locations.
  #196  
Old 11-10-2017, 12:03 PM
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And what do you suppose the people in those "couple of states near Florida" will use for transportation to get to work while all "their" local cars are busy ferrying en masse to the tip of FL? And where will all those cars charge as they do so?
This is a problem to solve, but it's not an insurmountable one. And it's one that we face in other areas when there's some kind of shock.

Some people will work from home. Some people will carpool more, or bike to work, or whatever. Maybe the economic hit of the disaster spreads out a bit more geographically, but that's ok because the added efficiency of the system will make up for it and then some.

And the rest of the system can adapt and respond. A self-driving car can go a long way in a single night. So reinforcements can arrive from other areas, even ones that are pretty far away.

I'm not convinced that this will be that much of a political problem, either. Sure, people who have to wait longer to get to work because they're a few hundred miles from a hurricane might gripe, but is anyone really going to begrudge their local transportation fleet being used to save people from disaster? When someone has a medical injury on a plane, the plane lands ASAP. Sucks for the other people on the plane, but there's no one seriously advocating that the rest of the passengers' schedules are more important than emergency care.

Quote:
And who will be paying for the deadhead time and mileage? Remember that a car will drive empty from, say, Atlanta to Miami, pick up an evacuee household, carry them back to, say, Atlanta then do it again a week later in reverse. The point being there's between 200 and 1000 miles of extra ferrying above and beyond the normal ferrying that's part and parcel of autonomous vehicle ops.
Depends on the pricing structure. Could be the evacuees, like any other long-distance traveler. Maybe if you request a longer trip, you pay higher per-mile costs to handle the logistics of the deadhead. Or maybe it's just built into the cost and it's paid as a sort of evacuation insurance by all passengers. Not every trip has to have the same profit margin.

Quote:
One solution to paying for the ferrying is to charge premium prices for evacuation services. Sounds economically sensible, but just like price gouging for board-up supplies or generators or gasoline is illegal, it's a pretty good bet that price gouging for evacuation transportation services will be (and should be) illegal.
I think public opinion will be mostly ok if an evacuation cost a bit more, since it requires lots of logistical scrambling. It would be nice if people were more rational about supply and demand shocks increasing prices, but oh well.

There are other ways to limit the costs. Evacuation situations could require filling cars. They could be more time or location constrained (sorry, you might not get to evacuate as far as you want, because the priority is getting everyone out of immediate danger).

On advantage that we don't think about is that a fleet evacuation would be much more efficient. My parents live in Santa Rosa, and they told stories of people evacuating from the fire on foot because the roads were so clogged they couldn't get anywhere. A centrally dispatched fleet wouldn't bother putting more cars on the road if they'd just get stuck in traffic, which means people would get out faster, and the required cars to aid in the evacuation might be lower than you think.
  #197  
Old 11-10-2017, 01:58 PM
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Like the Leaf a great pure commuting car and a complete fail for anything other than that. Not a car to use for driving 300 miles over a weekend, even if you are ending at home to charge each night after a lot of local stuff.... Using experience with an i3 to inform about driving a car with three times the electric range is not realistic. If you bought that car thinking to use it for anything other than pure commuting, well you should have thought again.
I never said nor implied that I drive 300 miles over a weekend. The weekend trips that I'm talking about were all less than about 50 miles from my home.

And what's with your weird habit of lecturing an EV owner about the advantages and disadvantages of an EV, when you don't have one? Especially your effort to explain to me the attributes of the car I drive every day, that you have apparently just read about? Are you the sort of guy who goes to parties and says, "Oh, you're a doctor? Well I'm a software engineer, but let me tell you about what being a physician is like..."

Quote:
Two, acknowledged that if your 300 miles of week end driving does not include either a place that will at least give you access to plug in your portable 110 charge overnight, or some level 2 spots near where you might want to stop for a bit, then it could be a challenge. A 3 hour drive into the countryside stopping at some random motel might not work. Pretty easy to find ChargePoints in most metropolitan areas and not too difficult to arrange to stay at a hotel that has level 2 in many week end level tourist locations.
But you're not really following the point: trips in EVs that amount to something more than the round-trip range of the EV require planning that is something that the vast majority of people just aren't used to. You had asserted a while back that fast charging for longer trips is "inconsequential," as someone can charge up when they have lunch. Ideally, yes, but it isn't a simple as that. And it doesn't have to do with the absolute range of the car: an eGolf owner planning a 150 mile trip will more or less face the same planning issue as a Model 3 owner planning a 350 mile trip -- the main difference is simply how often they do such trips.

You might need to recharge when it isn't lunchtime. You might need to recharge in places where there's nothing to do but sit in your car for a while. You might need to go out of your way to get to a charging place. You might be at the charger, but it is in use for long-ish periods of time. You might get to the charged and be ICEd out. You might need to pay more to stay in a hotel in a place you'd rather not want to stay because they have a level 2 charger. There's all sorts of reasons why long trips with EVs is kind of a pain, and being told by someone who has never even tried to do so is very peculiar.

No matter how you slice it, if someone plans to take longer trips in EVs, there's just a different set of calculations that have to be taken into account: the driver must pay more mind to the needs the EV, whereas an ICE driver can do whatever they want because refueling is so easy. This issue can be mitigated in many ways over time, but putting more supercharging stations on highways only addresses a little part of the issue.

But at the same time, people choosing Tesla over any other maker of EVs on the basis of a dedicated supercharging network isn't making a good choice.
  #198  
Old 11-10-2017, 02:34 PM
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I never said nor implied that I drive 300 miles over a weekend. The weekend trips that I'm talking about were all less than about 50 miles from my home.
Then color me puzzled. 100 mile round trip was difficult for you because you "couldn’t fully recharge at the hotel"?

Quote:
And what's with your weird habit of lecturing an EV owner about the advantages and disadvantages of an EV, when you don't have one? Especially your effort to explain to me the attributes of the car I drive every day, that you have apparently just read about? Are you the sort of guy who goes to parties and says, "Oh, you're a doctor? Well I'm a software engineer, but let me tell you about what being a physician is like..."
Seems to me more like you are the sort of person who says they're a dermatologist so they must be considered expert about neonatology. Your experience in an EV with 81 miles of range is completely immaterial to the question of driving an EV with three or four times the range.

Quote:
But you're not really following the point: trips in EVs that amount to something more than the round-trip range of the EV require planning that is something that the vast majority of people just aren't used to. You had asserted a while back that fast charging for longer trips is "inconsequential," as someone can charge up when they have lunch. Ideally, yes, but it isn't a simple as that. And it doesn't have to do with the absolute range of the car: an eGolf owner planning a 150 mile trip will more or less face the same planning issue as a Model 3 owner planning a 350 mile trip -- the main difference is simply how often they do such trips.

You might need to recharge when it isn't lunchtime. ...
Agreed that given some regions have low availability of public level 2 charger and some 300 mile driving weekends are not spending the night at home, that sometimes some planning is required. But the last bit illustrates why your experience in an 81 mile range EV is not transferable to a larger battery vehicle. You have no margin, no buffer. A larger battery EV can top off anytime. Down 50 miles, down 100 miles, down 200 miles, if lunch and at a place to charge then charge. Lunch place does not have a charger but dinner place does? Fine. Have to wait until at the hotel, or at breakfast? Also okay.

Yes, some planning. But little. And the point is that assuming somewhere along the route you have the level 2 charger where you'd be stopping anyway the time is not "onerous" because in general people do not sit with the vehicle when it is at a level 2. They are doing other things.
  #199  
Old 11-10-2017, 03:32 PM
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Words of wisdom coming from a wealth of experience with a 20-mile PHEV. I am outclassed.
  #200  
Old 11-10-2017, 05:11 PM
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Well yes you are.

Which does not necessarily say too much positive about me.

At least I knew that an EV with the range of the i3 or the Leaf would not be enough range for my wants and made the choice that allowed me to commute daily all electric most of the time while meeting my other desires for the vehicle just fine and didn't spend something like $45K on a car that has more range than I need to commute with but not enough to give me any other utility ... but hey look everyone it has a BMW badge! And I know that an EV with 200+ of range will meet my wants fine ... but not enough more than how well they are met now that I will rush it. I'll wait for mostly self-driving too.

I indeed have not had direct experience driving an EV with 200+ miles range. And neither have you. If you want to argue that a car with 238 miles of EV range requires charging at a very particular and specific point in time in order to be able to gain the additional 70 miles it needs to drive 300 miles that week end and if your lunch or dinner or walking tour or overnight does not occur at that specific time then you just have to stop where ever you are and wait with your car until it is charged ... because you pretty much need to do that with a tiny battery EV like yours ... and since you own an EV you are the expert to be deferred to ... you are free to do so. And I will be free to laugh. (I was wondering who were among those several hundred a month spending that much on the i3; now I know!)

BTW I don't think we disagree too much really. I agree and have stated that "long trips" in an EV are more than kind of a pain. Someone planning on frequent long road trips really would be better not choosing an EV. I just don't consider 300 miles over the course of a week end as a "long trip." Sometimes that's just a busy weekend with lots of schlepping to be done and a family visit within the broad metropolitan area thrown in. That could be just three hours of driving a day for two days. With kids and activities in and around the city and burbs I would do that some weekends. Let me remind you of what my claim for these large battery EVs was:
Quote:
Originally Posted by me bolding added
300 miles over a weekend is no problem without superchargers or other DC fast charge so long as it is not much more than 200 in a day and you can charge overnight (particularly easy if you are driving around lots but still at home at night), or at stops, at a level 2 for at least 4 hours total during meals or other stops
Please note the qualifiers including so long as you have a place to charge overnight or at stops. And so long as you do then there is no onerous burden of time or inconvenience. Now with a tiny battery EV you need to charge within 70 miles to avoid getting anxious which is maybe an hour and a half or less of driving and you need to charge at that time. Trying to use that car as anything other than a commuter would be ... oh something maybe to do as a dare for the challenge of it. And fair enough to argue that one cannot always assume that my "so long as" qualifier exists ... one would need to take a minute to be sure and yup, if I wanted to go the the Wisconsin Dells in a Chevy Bolt I'd need to stay at the hotel that has the chargers and I'd first call to make sure they promise me I can use it overnight, or I'd need to scope out what stops on the road there or back had chargers to use while eating. Yes, I agree that a road trip beyond the EV range of the vehicle would require some planning or taking a car that can travel on gas if it needs to (and I do not include the i3REx in that mix even though in a very limited way it is).
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