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Old 01-27-2020, 05:39 PM
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How much of a problem is a post-President (or lame duck) Trump?


At some point, Donald Trump will no longer be President. Aside from the case where he might die in office, that means that we will have Former President Trump doing whatever he's going to do. It seems to me he could cause a lot of trouble for the next administration, particularly a Democratic administration, and on a number of fronts.

Let's start with the "cleanest" case - that of removal from office by the Senate. As unlikely as this seems, it is a possibility. The upside (to my mind) of this case is that upon removal Trump no longer has the powers of the Presidency with which to do damage. On the other hand, he will be pissed, and inclined to vent his spleen far and wide. I could see him continuing to hold rallies of various flavors, and I'm sure he'd find a home on Fox News, in both of which venues he can fire up his base to...well, I'm not sure what ends exactly, but likely not constructive ones.

In addition, he will continue his quest for as much attention and money as he can acquire. What are the chances that he will divulge sensitive, perhaps even highly classified, information in order to sell books and secure speaking gigs? What mechanisms are in place to put reins on an ex-President who feels unbound by convention, common sense, and patriotism?

Should Trump leave office due to losing the 2020 election all of the above applies, but in addition he will have 2-1/2 months in which he will feel completely free to do whatever he feels like doing with the powers of his office. Pardons a-plenty would seem likely. I'm sure there would be a ton of executive orders enacting I'm-not-sure-what awful policies, but the President has broad authority within the national security, defense, and homeland security areas, and I could see things getting real ugly in those spheres.

Would the outgoing administration cooperate with the incoming administration's transition team? Given that Trump put very little stock in the concept of his own transition team, why would he put any effort into making the incoming President's job any easier?

What are the chances that significant numbers of documents and records get destroyed or, "misplaced?" What mechanisms and safeguards exist to prevent such sabotage?

I'm sure there's plenty else that this particular bull in our china shop could do. What do y'all think is likely, and what can be done to curb Trump unbound?
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Old 01-27-2020, 06:58 PM
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In addition, he will continue his quest for as much attention and money as he can acquire. What are the chances that he will divulge sensitive, perhaps even highly classified, information in order to sell books and secure speaking gigs? What mechanisms are in place to put reins on an ex-President who feels unbound by convention, common sense, and patriotism?
For classified information it is more than convention, common sense, and patriotism that constrains disclosure. It is federal criminal law.

A president has access to all classified information without going through a background check or receiving a security clearance. All power to classify and declassify derives from the executive power they hold. They can disclose whatever they want without it being criminal because of that.

Once they are no longer president that special power is in the hands of someone else.
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Old 01-27-2020, 07:50 PM
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I doubt very much that Trump would be able to remember any classified information. Or know what it is. Unless, of course, Putin has asked him for specific data. Which I think is a real possibility. Check his suitcase and pockets. He should be frisked when he leaves. Does he even use, have a computer of his own? I'm sure his family does. Lots of money to be made releasing this data. That's all they care about.

As far as fucking up the country, expect the EPA to get torn down even more. Lots of money to be made there too.
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Old 01-27-2020, 09:05 PM
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Highly doubt he'll ever be invited to those functions where once a while all the living presidents convene.

It'll be awkward as fuck if he is re-elected as the Obama Presidential Library will probably be built and opened by 2024 and typically the sitting president gives a nice little speech of recognition.
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Old 01-27-2020, 11:05 PM
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Having read of Trump's lack of effort for his own incoming transition, if it were directly up to him, I doubt there would be any effort put forth on his (inevitable) outgoing transition, as regards helping the new incoming administration. With the likelihood that he will be replaced by a Democrat (whenever that might happen), that doubt of mine raises to a near-certainty. In fact, judging by his past actions and attitudes, I'd say he would put real effort into making the transition as hard as possible.

Luckily, for most of the various agencies in question, career employees will make great strides in 'passing the baton,' despite even having their own department heads directing them to do otherwise. I certainly hope they will, anyway.
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Old 01-28-2020, 04:37 AM
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I think he will tweet a lot but otherwise lose interest.
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Old 01-28-2020, 04:44 AM
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Originally Posted by DinoR View Post
For classified information it is more than convention, common sense, and patriotism that constrains disclosure. It is federal criminal law.

A president has access to all classified information without going through a background check or receiving a security clearance. All power to classify and declassify derives from the executive power they hold. They can disclose whatever they want without it being criminal because of that.

Once they are no longer president that special power is in the hands of someone else.
Right. President Trump can disclose whatever he wants. Mr Trump would likely be arrested for disclosing classified information.

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Having read of Trump's lack of effort for his own incoming transition, if it were directly up to him, I doubt there would be any effort put forth on his (inevitable) outgoing transition, as regards helping the new incoming administration. With the likelihood that he will be replaced by a Democrat (whenever that might happen), that doubt of mine raises to a near-certainty. In fact, judging by his past actions and attitudes, I'd say he would put real effort into making the transition as hard as possible.

Luckily, for most of the various agencies in question, career employees will make great strides in 'passing the baton,' despite even having their own department heads directing them to do otherwise. I certainly hope they will, anyway.
Agreed. Any problem with transition will be with the White House staff only. Thatís the only place where there is 100% turn over. Other departments are filled with career bureaucrats and mostly run by deputies. You know, the Deep State. Business will continue even with a change at the top.
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Old 01-28-2020, 07:18 AM
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For classified information it is more than convention, common sense, and patriotism that constrains disclosure. It is federal criminal law.

A president has access to all classified information without going through a background check or receiving a security clearance. All power to classify and declassify derives from the executive power they hold. They can disclose whatever they want without it being criminal because of that.

Once they are no longer president that special power is in the hands of someone else.
I understand that, but will Trump care, or even think about it? I think the most likely scenario is him just blurting out something he heard while in office, without any thought for the consequences (like when he dropped some sensitive stuff to the Russian Ambassador). Threats of legal action only work when the target thinks you're serious, and cares about the law.

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I doubt very much that Trump would be able to remember any classified information. Or know what it is. Unless, of course, Putin has asked him for specific data. Which I think is a real possibility. Check his suitcase and pockets. He should be frisked when he leaves. Does he even use, have a computer of his own? I'm sure his family does. Lots of money to be made releasing this data. That's all they care about.

As far as fucking up the country, expect the EPA to get torn down even more. Lots of money to be made there too.
I could definitely see him rescinding a lot of regulations, firing important personnel, and other such actions. Nothing permanent, because the incoming administration can reverse the actions, but it will put the new President further behind in the rebuilding effort.

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Having read of Trump's lack of effort for his own incoming transition, if it were directly up to him, I doubt there would be any effort put forth on his (inevitable) outgoing transition, as regards helping the new incoming administration. With the likelihood that he will be replaced by a Democrat (whenever that might happen), that doubt of mine raises to a near-certainty. In fact, judging by his past actions and attitudes, I'd say he would put real effort into making the transition as hard as possible.

Luckily, for most of the various agencies in question, career employees will make great strides in 'passing the baton,' despite even having their own department heads directing them to do otherwise. I certainly hope they will, anyway.
What happens if Trump actively directs these career employees not to assist? I honestly don't know, but I could imagine him raging about the illegitimate new President, and telling everyone not to cooperate in any way.

In my fantasy of the 2020 election, part of the winner's acceptance speech on election night would be a public exhortation to everyone working in the Federal government to follow records retention laws and regulations, and a reminder that these records belong to the American people, not to Trump and his family. I could definitely imagine the shredders working overtime beginning the instant he loses the election.
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Old 01-28-2020, 07:44 AM
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AFTER he's gone? He's not going to go quietly. In fact, he has on more than one occasion made thinly veiled threats about what his followers are capable of if the Democrats "cheat" him out of a second term.
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Old 01-28-2020, 07:59 AM
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Near the end for Nixon the Sec of Defense told the commanders to check with him if Nixon sent them orders to attack a country or do similar things. That will probably happen with Trump if he loses.

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Old 01-28-2020, 10:34 AM
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In the event of re-election Trump is likely to raise the issue of removing the Presidential term limit just for him.
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Old 01-28-2020, 12:00 PM
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As soon as President Trump becomes Mr. Trump he will be immediately investigated and likely indicted on a number of cases that have been held in limbo because of the "a sitting president can be neither investigated nor charged with any crime" nonsense that has kept so many cases tied up in the courts, while trying to get access to his tax records, for example, or Russian collusion, or charity fraud, or bribery by paying hush money to porn stars, or any number of other things. The State of New York has several pending matters being held up entirely by the assertion that the president can neither be investigated or charged. He's trying to run out the clock on campaign finance violation charges he could be facing when he leaves office, which would have passed the statute of limitations if he wins a second term. It's my fervent belief that, while he likes the prestige and power of being president, his main reason for fighting and cheating so hard to hold on to his office has a lot to do with the certain knowledge that his office is the only thing keeping him out of jail.
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Old 01-28-2020, 12:11 PM
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The Don may actually be a big problem for the GOP if he loses this November, sitting on the sideline and enthralling millions of followers with his particular brand of nativist bullshit. He will cast as much aspersion on moderate Republicans as he will Democrats, seeking only to make the most noise and generate the most personal attention possible. But his supporters will continue to shrink in number and this bloviating will serve only to obstruct the necessary rebuilding job the party will require should it get trounced this year.

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In the event of re-election Trump is likely to raise the issue of removing the Presidential term limit just for him.
Well, this is certainly possible, too. What could be more terrifying than four more years of a mentally declining DJT? Eight more years.
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Old 01-28-2020, 12:18 PM
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In the event of re-election Trump is likely to raise the issue of removing the Presidential term limit just for him.
A Constitutional Amendment is the hardest of things to do.
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Old 01-28-2020, 12:19 PM
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Having read of Trump's lack of effort for his own incoming transition, if it were directly up to him, I doubt there would be any effort put forth on his (inevitable) outgoing transition, as regards helping the new incoming administration. With the likelihood that he will be replaced by a Democrat (whenever that might happen), that doubt of mine raises to a near-certainty. In fact, judging by his past actions and attitudes, I'd say he would put real effort into making the transition as hard as possible.

Luckily, for most of the various agencies in question, career employees will make great strides in 'passing the baton,' despite even having their own department heads directing them to do otherwise. I certainly hope they will, anyway.
I've been thinking about this problem since word of all the troubles of the Trump transition came out in the early days of his administration.

My thought is the next Democratic Chief of Staff is going to have a tremendous list of chores to accomplish to repair the damage caused by Trump. Especially to the State Department, Department of Education, the EPA, and those other departments and agencies that rely on science.

In another thread I suggested Andrew Cuomo, the kickass governor of New York for the post. No matter who is elected. He isn't a nice guy, but he gets things done. I wonder if his ego would allow him to step into a subordinate-unelected position.

At this point one could point to Elizabeth Warren, who had experience running a cabinet level position and has DC experience, Michael Bloomberg who ran the largest city in the country and a giant successful corporation, and Joe Biden former vice president and long time DC insider as the three candidates most qualified to pick up the post-Trump mess.

At this point some combination of two or three of them looks pretty much impossible, but maybe patriotism will exceed ego.
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Old 01-28-2020, 12:51 PM
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I've been thinking about this problem since word of all the troubles of the Trump transition came out in the early days of his administration.

My thought is the next Democratic Chief of Staff is going to have a tremendous list of chores to accomplish to repair the damage caused by Trump. Especially to the State Department, Department of Education, the EPA, and those other departments and agencies that rely on science.

In another thread I suggested Andrew Cuomo, the kickass governor of New York for the post. No matter who is elected. He isn't a nice guy, but he gets things done. I wonder if his ego would allow him to step into a subordinate-unelected position.

At this point one could point to Elizabeth Warren, who had experience running a cabinet level position and has DC experience, Michael Bloomberg who ran the largest city in the country and a giant successful corporation, and Joe Biden former vice president and long time DC insider as the three candidates most qualified to pick up the post-Trump mess.

At this point some combination of two or three of them looks pretty much impossible, but maybe patriotism will exceed ego.
For sure, the next Democratic administration has a lot of work to do. I like the idea of Cuomo's take-no-prisoners attitude, but I'd prefer someone with prior Washington (and, ideally, White House) experience - someone who can step in already knowing which levers to pull, who to bully, who to sweet-talk, etc. God help me, if I were the incoming President, I might be looking for Rahm Emmanuel's number. The guy is a gigantic horse's ass, but if he's your pit bull, he's effective.

I mentioned in a previous thread that, regardless of who is President, I would hope that they would take a similar approach to Cabinet appointments, for exactly the same reasons, especially Secretary of State. The next Democratic SOS really will have to go on an, "apology tour," all the while bringing the State Department back up to strength. Hopefully the next SOS hires his or her own pit bull of a Chief of Staff.
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Old 01-28-2020, 01:44 PM
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He does not need a 3rd term. He has Don Jr, Eric, Ivanka, Tiffany, Barron and other people who worship him and would be just like him if they are elected.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:35 PM
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For sure, the next Democratic administration has a lot of work to do. I like the idea of Cuomo's take-no-prisoners attitude, but I'd prefer someone with prior Washington (and, ideally, White House) experience - someone who can step in already knowing which levers to pull, who to bully, who to sweet-talk, etc. God help me, if I were the incoming President, I might be looking for Rahm Emmanuel's number. The guy is a gigantic horse's ass, but if he's your pit bull, he's effective.
Cuomo served in the Clinton administration, including four years as HUD secretary.
Not sure that quite gets him up to the bar you're describing but he's not unfamiliar with Washington.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:36 PM
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A Constitutional Amendment is the hardest of things to do.
Well, the GOP has not been really keen on following any other part of the Constitution. Why would they let that stop them? Look at how the Senate Republicans have pissed all over the Impeachment trial. People tend to forget Trump is the symptom, but the cancer is the entire GOP and they can stil do a lot of damage.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:42 PM
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The Don may actually be a big problem for the GOP if he loses this November, sitting on the sideline and enthralling millions of followers with his particular brand of nativist bullshit. He will cast as much aspersion on moderate Republicans as he will Democrats, seeking only to make the most noise and generate the most personal attention possible. But his supporters will continue to shrink in number and this bloviating will serve only to obstruct the necessary rebuilding job the party will require should it get trounced this year.



Well, this is certainly possible, too. What could be more terrifying than four more years of a mentally declining DJT? Eight more years.
If you cant beat a mentally declining DJT in TWO elections....you deserve eight more years of him.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:47 PM
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If you cant beat a mentally declining DJT in TWO elections....you deserve eight more years of him.
I don't control how stupid and hateful the country is. I don't deserve him personally.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:48 PM
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AFTER he's gone? He's not going to go quietly. In fact, he has on more than one occasion made thinly veiled threats about what his followers are capable of if the Democrats "cheat" him out of a second term.
So what? I'm sure some Trump die-hards will continue to kill people in his name but it won't be a political issue. A few riots, even if some extreme nuts bring their guns, won't overturn the election.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:51 PM
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If you cant beat a mentally declining DJT in TWO elections....you deserve eight more years of him.
It's not just Trump we have to beat. It's the conservative political machine that puts Republican candidates in office even when they come in second place in elections. That machine gave us George W. Bush as well as Donald Trump.

We need to dismantle this machine and restore democracy in this country.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:54 PM
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As for Trump personally, I have a feeling that if he loses this year, he'll refuse to accept his time has passed. He'll just start running to get back in office in 2024.

Worst case scenario for Trump? He collects millions in donations from his die-hard supporters.
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Old 01-28-2020, 02:58 PM
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I doubt very much that Trump would be able to remember any classified information. Or know what it is. Unless, of course, Putin has asked him for specific data. Which I think is a real possibility. Check his suitcase and pockets. He should be frisked when he leaves.
Fun (and relevant) Fact: Small thumb drives and memory cards will easily fit inside a human rectum.
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Old 01-28-2020, 03:01 PM
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In addition, he will continue his quest for as much attention and money as he can acquire. What are the chances that he will divulge sensitive, perhaps even highly classified, information in order to sell books and secure speaking gigs? What mechanisms are in place to put reins on an ex-President who feels unbound by convention, common sense, and patriotism?
I'm sure that Trump would WANT to reveal classified information in order to show how smart and important he is, but there is no way in hell he would be able to REMEMBER even one iota of information that is of any value to anyone. So no worries on that front.

ETA great minds think alike - should have read the whole thread.

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Old 01-28-2020, 03:18 PM
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It's not just Trump we have to beat. It's the conservative political machine that puts Republican candidates in office even when they come in second place in elections. That machine gave us George W. Bush as well as Donald Trump.

We need to dismantle this machine and restore democracy in this country.
NO...you need to fix your house before complaining about how bad the neighborhood is. If the Dems would stop eating their tail, take responsibility and actually be the good guys they purport to be....they'd never lose another presidential election.

again...they lost to DONALD FUCKING TRUMP. After getting a black president elected twice. And are in great danger of losing again. To Donald Trump.

It's not because the country is full of 'inbred, hick illiterate toothless cousin-fuckers'

It's because there are millions of people that don't want to be associated with the likes of Don Lemon or a party that runs smears against its own with its propaganda network.

And IF Sanders does lose the nomination...why the FUCK should his supporters help people who called them 'Bernie Bros' and "Russian tools' for 5 years??

And I have no great love of Sanders.
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Old 01-28-2020, 03:27 PM
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It's not just Trump we have to beat. It's the conservative political machine that puts Republican candidates in office even when they come in second place in elections. That machine gave us George W. Bush as well as Donald Trump.

We need to dismantle this machine and restore democracy in this country.
I think you are talking about the constitution and not the republican machine.
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Old 01-28-2020, 03:35 PM
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Nemo,

Agreed, but it may be too late. Whatever Trump says at the moment is the law for the moment. If the Senate does not remove him from office it sets a precedent that essentially removes impeachment as a remedy. In the future Trump and his successors can simply ignore impeachment. The party in power is no longer bound by the Constitution

Trump does not need an amendment to stay in office. He simply announces that the rule is being waived so it does not apply to him. Same for elections. No need because he is the most popular and beloved President in history.

It may require a coup by the joint chiefs of staff to get rid of Trump. The military is the ultimate protector of the Constitution.
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Old 01-28-2020, 03:58 PM
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Nemo,

Agreed, but it may be too late. Whatever Trump says at the moment is the law for the moment. If the Senate does not remove him from office it sets a precedent that essentially removes impeachment as a remedy. In the future Trump and his successors can simply ignore impeachment. The party in power is no longer bound by the Constitution

Trump does not need an amendment to stay in office. He simply announces that the rule is being waived so it does not apply to him. Same for elections. No need because he is the most popular and beloved President in history.

It may require a coup by the joint chiefs of staff to get rid of Trump. The military is the ultimate protector of the Constitution.
And yet...he WILL leave either in 2021 or 2025 and there will continue to be elections.
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Old 01-28-2020, 04:01 PM
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I think you are talking about the constitution and not the republican machine.
See a lot of mentions of gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement in the Constitution, do you?
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Old 01-28-2020, 04:08 PM
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Nemo,

Agreed, but it may be too late. Whatever Trump says at the moment is the law for the moment. If the Senate does not remove him from office it sets a precedent that essentially removes impeachment as a remedy. In the future Trump and his successors can simply ignore impeachment. The party in power is no longer bound by the Constitution

Trump does not need an amendment to stay in office. He simply announces that the rule is being waived so it does not apply to him. Same for elections. No need because he is the most popular and beloved President in history.

It may require a coup by the joint chiefs of staff to get rid of Trump. The military is the ultimate protector of the Constitution.
If Trump has a saving grace, it's his incompetence. He's too dumb to pull off being a dictator. He needs a whole bunch of legal institutions to prop him up and keep him in power. If he abandons those legal institutions, he won't last a month before he's overthrown.

As for impeachment, I agree; the Republicans in the Senate are going to let Trump get away with his crimes. But then we will decide in November, if those Republicans will get away with what they did. If the Senators who backed a guilty President lose their own seats over doing so, you'll never see future Senators making that same mistake.
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Old 01-28-2020, 04:24 PM
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Nemo,

Agreed, but it may be too late. Whatever Trump says at the moment is the law for the moment. If the Senate does not remove him from office it sets a precedent that essentially removes impeachment as a remedy. In the future Trump and his successors can simply ignore impeachment. The party in power is no longer bound by the Constitution

Trump does not need an amendment to stay in office. He simply announces that the rule is being waived so it does not apply to him. Same for elections. No need because he is the most popular and beloved President in history.

It may require a coup by the joint chiefs of staff to get rid of Trump. The military is the ultimate protector of the Constitution.
This post would require a series of expensive upgrades before it can even be wrong.

Regards,
Shodan
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Old 01-28-2020, 04:36 PM
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Perhaps so, we'll see how it unfolds.
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Old 01-28-2020, 04:39 PM
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See a lot of mentions of gerrymandering and voter disenfranchisement in the Constitution, do you?
Gerrymandering does not change state borders so it has no affect on the electoral college.
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Old 01-28-2020, 04:49 PM
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Nemo,

I've usually dismissed the 'Trump will hold onto the Presidency by any means' stuff as absurd. I considered such speculation to be nonsense. But, Trump keeps escalating his fruitcake behavior and nobody cares. The only thing they care about is that Trump stays in power. What was once absurd now seems unlikely but possible.

I agree that our one remedy is a Blue Wave in November that holds the House and captures both Senate and the Presidency. But, what if the Dems get the Senate and not the Presidency. Would the public back another impeachment, no matter how well deserved?
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Old 01-28-2020, 05:37 PM
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I'm still waiting for Bush to invade Iran as I was promised in 2007
  #38  
Old 01-28-2020, 06:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Shodan View Post
This post would require a series of expensive upgrades before it can even be wrong.



Regards,

Shodan
How about actually contributing something to this thread, rather than just dropping a what-you-think-is-funny drive-by?
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  #39  
Old 01-28-2020, 06:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Loach View Post
Gerrymandering does not change state borders so it has no affect on the electoral college.
You apparently didn't understand what I said.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Little Nemo View Post
It's not just Trump we have to beat. It's the conservative political machine that puts Republican candidates in office even when they come in second place in elections. That machine gave us George W. Bush as well as Donald Trump.

We need to dismantle this machine and restore democracy in this country.
The conservative political machine is more than just the President. It's the House of Representatives and the Senate which allow a President to commit crimes and start wars. It's judges appointed to legislate the conservative platform into laws from the courts. It's state legislators who rewrite district borders so the minority party wins elections. It's local bureaucrats appointed by conservatives who get to decide whose
ID is acceptable at the voting booth.

I'm not imagining this. It all happened in this country. We had one-party rule in southern states for decades. They made sure that every level of government but one was controlled by them so there was nobody you could turn to to try to fix the system. The one exception was the federal government, which was the only authority that was able to step in and restore democratic rule in the south.

And that's the political system conservatives are trying to rebuild. Sure they call themselves Republicans now instead of Democrats but the real difference is this time they're trying to establish a one-party system on a national level. They want to make sure that this time, there'll be nobody who can stop them once they take over.
  #40  
Old 01-28-2020, 06:47 PM
Velocity is online now
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Trump does not need an amendment to stay in office. He simply announces that the rule is being waived so it does not apply to him.
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Originally Posted by Death of Rats View Post
Well, the GOP has not been really keen on following any other part of the Constitution. Why would they let that stop them?

So when people point out that the Constitution has a hard limit of 2 terms on the presidency, the response here is just to handwave that fact aside? That's a bit akin to Flat-Earthers who respond to photos showing a round Earth with, "aww, shucks, Photoshop."
  #41  
Old 01-28-2020, 08:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Superdude View Post
How about actually contributing something to this thread, rather than just dropping a what-you-think-is-funny drive-by?
I actually agree with the drive by. Yes, it was drive-by, but not incorrect. Declaring the republic over if not for conviction is chicken-little nonsense. A lot else would need to happen and we'll still have elections and consequences in the meantime.
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