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  #51  
Old 01-30-2020, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by orcenio View Post
Palestinians, like Israelis, are there. Nothing will change the fact that both Israelis and Palestinians are there, living.
Yup. That is precisely the problem.

Unless and until all sides involved somehow decide simultaneously that they're OK with that, there will be no solution. At least, no solution that leaves much of anybody alive in the area.



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As likely for the Palestinians to approve a ham sandwich
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Originally Posted by Oswald Bastable View Post
Well, that’s some common ground at least. Maybe they can build something from that...
Why not not eat pigs together? (YouTube; Tim Minchin.)
  #52  
Old 01-30-2020, 12:38 PM
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Originally Posted by cmkeller View Post
RTFirefly:



Not sure what you mean here. Egypt and Jordan signed peace treaties with Israel, no other Arab nation (or quasi-national entity) has. I don't see how the land borders comes into play on this subject.
Oh c'mon, you're smarter than this. You said:
Quote:
The Israelis have won every actual war they fought against Arab nations, but the unwillingness of those nations (except Egypt and Jordan) to acknowledge their loss in the military arena has them continuing to commit acts of violence in the hopes of absolute victory, which in turn leads the Israelis to conclude that peace is not yet possible.
So we're talking about the nations that have fought conventional wars with Israel.

Israel has four neighboring nations: Egypt, Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon. If you're gonna push Israel into the sea, you've got to move troops there somehow, so unless someone's going to invade by sea, land borders matter. It's easier to defend against an attack from one direction than from all directions. (Do I really have to say this? Lord give me patience, and quickly.)

And that's without getting into the relative military strength of the four nations, which makes it even more of a "other than that, Mrs. Lincoln" sort of thing.
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While you and I and likely most the world believe that to be true, what do you think the end-game of the Palestinian leadership (don't call it a nation if you don't wish to) is?
I'm sorry, did the Palestinian 'nation' participate in a conventional war against Israel? Which war? (Oh, and they're not a nation. They don't have territory that they control to the exclusion of all other nations.)

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Their strategy forward clearly involves violence, what's the point of that if they don't think it's their path to some sort of victory? They may be deluded, but I don't see any other logic to it.
And going from 'absolute victory' earlier to 'some sort of victory' now is quite a goalpost-moving. Can I borrow your backhoe?
  #53  
Old 01-31-2020, 02:14 PM
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Thanks for the thread title change, mods!
  #54  
Old 01-31-2020, 05:25 PM
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While I think the chance of any peace plan succeeding are small, I'd have to say this one is more likely for several reasons:

1. Support of other Arab Nations. Having Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Qatar, and a few other states tentatively on board is potentially a big deal. Also on board are a wide swath of countries like France, Austria, Australia, South Korea, Japan, and about a dozen others so far.

2. Isolation of the Palestinians. Peace plans in the past often became victims of external politics. Cold war politics, the fact that the Palestinian cause was very useful to other states to deflect citizen anger away from their own misdeeds or to politically damage Israel and America, Iranian meddling and inciting hatred of Israel, etc. Palestinian leaders were essentially bribed billions of dollars to NOT seek peace with Israel. But that has changed. The rise of the Iranian threat has created new alliances, including a new Arab willingness to work with and even ally with Israel. Money and support of Palestinians is drying up in the region.

3. The fall of oil power in the middle east. The leverage that various middle eastern oil states once had on the global economy has shrunk. OPEC has lost much of its power to control prices. This may lead to a new era of compromise and shifting alliances as political power wanes among states hostile to Israel..

4. Some specific features in the new plan. For example, offering $50 billion to the Palestinians for signing on, while at the same time drying up the power of the other side to offer incentives for not signing, may move the needle with Palestinian leadership.

That said, a lifetime of watching various peace plans promise the moon and end up with nothing or worse, I suspect this will be more of the same. But this is an era of unexpected change, so who knows?
  #55  
Old 01-31-2020, 05:34 PM
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Originally Posted by Sam Stone View Post
While I think the chance of any peace plan succeeding are small, I'd have to say this one is more likely for several reasons:

1. Support of other Arab Nations. Having Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the UAE, Qatar, and a few other states tentatively on board is potentially a big deal. Also on board are a wide swath of countries like France, Austria, Australia, South Korea, Japan, and about a dozen others so far.
Do you have a cite that these countries support the plan?
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Old 01-31-2020, 08:07 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
Do you have a cite that these countries support the plan?
From The Hill:
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Ambassadors from the United Arab Emirates, Oman and Bahrain were among the Arab nations represented at the plan’s unveiling in the White House and public statements from Saudi Arabia and Egypt have offered support for Trump’s efforts.
That's just the Arab nations I mentioned. The other supporting countries were listed in the original announcement. According to the initial announcement, 23 countries were on board at the time of unveiling, including all the countries I mentioned.

I don't recall other peace plans having significant Arab support. But it's a different world now. Maybe there is an opening for something to finally get done.

Last edited by Sam Stone; 01-31-2020 at 08:09 PM.
  #57  
Old 01-31-2020, 09:53 PM
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Originally Posted by Sam Stone View Post
From The Hill:

That's just the Arab nations I mentioned. The other supporting countries were listed in the original announcement. According to the initial announcement, 23 countries were on board at the time of unveiling, including all the countries I mentioned.

I don't recall other peace plans having significant Arab support. But it's a different world now. Maybe there is an opening for something to finally get done.
I don't see anything in that link or googling that indicates any of these countries are onboard specifically with this plan. Maybe they're onboard with peace efforts, or something extremely vague like that, but without something specific I'm skeptical.
  #58  
Old 01-31-2020, 10:04 PM
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You don't think those ambassadors standing with him at the unveiling of the plan don't support it as at least a good start of negotiations? Why else would they be there?
  #59  
Old 01-31-2020, 10:11 PM
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You don't think those ambassadors standing with him at the unveiling of the plan don't support it as at least a good start of negotiations? Why else would they be there?
I have no idea why they were there. Without official statements from their governments about this specific peace plan, we just don't know where their leaders actually stand. It seems unlikely to me that a bunch of Arab leaders who have made commitment to the Palestinian cause a big part of their domestic political advocacy would out-of-the-blue go for a peace plan that did not include a Palestinian negotiating partner.

According to this, members of the Arab League will be voting on the plan tomorrow (and notable that even SA, UAE, and Egypt don't advocate supporting this specific plan): https://www.axios.com/palestinians-s...d6933049b.html

The best that I've heard from any of them is the UAE calling it a "good start". That's not exactly a ringing endorsement. And I see no evidence of European support.
  #60  
Old 02-01-2020, 09:07 AM
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Originally Posted by Sam Stone View Post
You don't think those ambassadors standing with him at the unveiling of the plan don't support it as at least a good start of negotiations? Why else would they be there?
They wanted to get their parking validated and that was the only way.
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  #61  
Old 02-02-2020, 11:28 PM
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I welcome some corrections here, but some of the reports I heard about this peace plan mentioned that it would lead to some Israeli Arabs being annexed to the Palestinian state and losing their Israeli citizenship. However, I do not see anything about this in the report from the Associated Press. But if this is correct, I guess that would be one of my biggest concerns about this plan, since I'm not convinced this is even allowed under international law. For those of you more familiar with this plan than me, what would be its actual effect on Israeli Arabs?
  #62  
Old 02-03-2020, 12:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
I have no idea why they were there. Without official statements from their governments about this specific peace plan, we just don't know where their leaders actually stand. It seems unlikely to me that a bunch of Arab leaders who have made commitment to the Palestinian cause a big part of their domestic political advocacy would out-of-the-blue go for a peace plan that did not include a Palestinian negotiating partner.

According to this, members of the Arab League will be voting on the plan tomorrow (and notable that even SA, UAE, and Egypt don't advocate supporting this specific plan): https://www.axios.com/palestinians-s...d6933049b.html
I don't think Sam Stone has any idea why there were there either; in fact I'm sure he was dead fucking wrong with what he did think.

Because according to this, the Arab League unanimously rejected Jared and Trump's plan: https://www.timesofisrael.com/backin...st-peace-plan/

ETA: Why anyone believes anything that comes out of Trump or anyone associated with him is beyond me.

Last edited by Snowboarder Bo; 02-03-2020 at 12:23 AM.
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