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Old 01-20-2020, 02:47 PM
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Why are white Americans hyping up Trump's economy the most?


The American economy I would give a C right now, yes, there is low unemployment and the stock market is okay.

They are economic challenges, such as poverty, stagnated wages, etc.

Black and Latino Americans are not sold on Trump's economy, but why are so many white Americans hyping Trump's economy, the most?

All the sports radio hosts that I listen to mention Trump's economy during their conversations, like NY sports hosts Boomer Esiason, etc.
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Old 01-20-2020, 02:53 PM
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Because most Trump supporters are white americans?

The least controversial of Trump "pros" is that the economy, imo. If you're going to sell any part of Trump, that's the easiest part to sell.
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Old 01-20-2020, 02:57 PM
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Originally Posted by Yankees 1996 Champs View Post
Black and Latino Americans are not sold on Trump's economy
Cite?
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Originally Posted by Yankees 1996 Champs View Post
, but why are so many white Americans hyping Trump's economy, the most?
Are they? Cite?
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Originally Posted by Yankees 1996 Champs View Post
All the sports radio hosts that I listen to mention Trump's economy during their conversations, like NY sports hosts Boomer Esiason, etc.
"All" that one guy you listed? Do you have cites of "all" of him saying these things?
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Old 01-20-2020, 02:57 PM
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The American economy I would give a C right now, yes, there is low unemployment and the stock market is okay.

They are economic challenges, such as poverty, stagnated wages, etc.

Black and Latino Americans are not sold on Trump's economy, but why are so many white Americans hyping Trump's economy, the most?

All the sports radio hosts that I listen to mention Trump's economy during their conversations, like NY sports hosts Boomer Esiason, etc.
I've wondered this, too. Why the hell is he getting credit for the state of the economy? Even relatively smart people that I know have said, "Yeah, he's a jerk, but the economy..."
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Old 01-20-2020, 03:38 PM
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Cite?Are they? Cite?"All" that one guy you listed? Do you have cites of "all" of him saying these things?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KYOs3qqjLXw

https://www.washingtonpost.com/polit...gely-disagree/
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Old 01-20-2020, 03:41 PM
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I've wondered this, too. Why the hell is he getting credit for the state of the economy? Even relatively smart people that I know have said, "Yeah, he's a jerk, but the economy..."
Exactly. I can't recall ever seeing a single statement, from Trump or any of his supporters, as to which policy or policies are directly responsible for this (low-wage-growth) "boom". At best I'd be willing to give him credit for not, so far, fucking up an economy that was clearly strengthening long before he came to office.

So, here's your chance for a bit of promotion, DJT supporters. What, aside from simply showing up, has your man done to help things along?
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Old 01-20-2020, 03:44 PM
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Back in 1992 , the recession really helped Clinton beat the incumbent Bush. Hard to beat an incumbent if the economy is OK by most measures.
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Old 01-20-2020, 04:09 PM
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I've wondered this, too. Why the hell is he getting credit for the state of the economy? Even relatively smart people that I know have said, "Yeah, he's a jerk, but the economy..."
The president, fairly or unfairly, gets the praise or blame for a good or bad economy.
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Old 01-20-2020, 04:13 PM
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Because most Trump supporters are white americans?

The least controversial of Trump "pros" is that the economy, imo. If you're going to sell any part of Trump, that's the easiest part to sell.
This pretty much. The hot economy is the only thing you can possibly use to sell Trump to swing/undecided voters.

Other issues, such as Trump nominating conservative judges, only work in revving up Trump voters.
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Old 01-20-2020, 04:28 PM
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Those are sweet links; what's at them?

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Old 01-20-2020, 04:33 PM
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Black and Latino Americans are not sold on Trump's economy, but why are so many white Americans hyping Trump's economy, the most?
Assuming that this is the case, I would say that Black and Latino Americans are far more attuned to the precariousness of a booming economy, and their own lack of participation in the boom. Whereas there is a trope going around about many Republican voters in the lower end of the economic spectrum voting against their own interests, the reason being that they imagine that one day they will somehow magically be rich too. This could explain the notion that whites are hyping Trump's economy, even if they are not directly benefiting. There is also the cognitive dissonance that some of these folks have that they believe what Trump says, or at least give him the benefit of the doubt, in spite of their own experiences (see - farmers suffering due to tariffs still supporting Trump).
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Old 01-20-2020, 04:34 PM
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The American economy I would give a C right now, yes, there is low unemployment and the stock market is okay.

They are economic challenges, such as poverty, stagnated wages, etc.

Black and Latino Americans are not sold on Trump's economy, but why are so many white Americans hyping Trump's economy, the most?

All the sports radio hosts that I listen to mention Trump's economy during their conversations, like NY sports hosts Boomer Esiason, etc.
Because they feel they have secure jobs and a few extra bucks in their pocket.

I would give the Trump economy a lower grade than C. I think his policies are dangerously short-sighted, he’s using borrowed money to fund an economic bubble and facilitate the transfer of increasingly vast amounts of wealth to the billionaire class.

And he doesn’t care what happens after he leaves office.

But a sense of security and a few extra buck in their pockets goes a long way towards buying off the masses.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 01-20-2020 at 04:35 PM.
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Old 01-20-2020, 04:58 PM
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A lot of one time measure can make the economy look good in the short term, but if you're heating the house by burning the furniture pretty soon you run out of places to sit.
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Old 01-20-2020, 05:37 PM
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Assuming that this is the case, I would say that Black and Latino Americans are far more attuned to the precariousness of a booming economy, and their own lack of participation in the boom. Whereas there is a trope going around about many Republican voters in the lower end of the economic spectrum voting against their own interests, the reason being that they imagine that one day they will somehow magically be rich too. This could explain the notion that whites are hyping Trump's economy, even if they are not directly benefiting. There is also the cognitive dissonance that some of these folks have that they believe what Trump says, or at least give him the benefit of the doubt, in spite of their own experiences (see - farmers suffering due to tariffs still supporting Trump).
I don't think it's necessarily that Trump voters care about whether they themselves are personally cashing in on a boom, as it is that they tend to take big stock in things like "national pride" / jingoism / patriotism, etc. in the same way that impoverished Brazilians love seeing their nation win FIFA soccer World Cups even if they themselves get zero direct benefit. These Trump voters are seeing news reports like "Dow Jones nearing 30,000 points which would be an all-time record," "U.S. economy continues strong growth," "China agrees to buy $200 billion in American goods" and such headlines make them feel good and proud of America, even if they themselves continue to be saddled by student debt and big hospital bills.
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Old 01-20-2020, 06:09 PM
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I don't think it's necessarily that Trump voters care about whether they themselves are personally cashing in on a boom, as it is that they tend to take big stock in things like "national pride" / jingoism / patriotism, etc. in the same way that impoverished Brazilians love seeing their nation win FIFA soccer World Cups even if they themselves get zero direct benefit. These Trump voters are seeing news reports like "Dow Jones nearing 30,000 points which would be an all-time record," "U.S. economy continues strong growth," "China agrees to buy $200 billion in American goods" and such headlines make them feel good and proud of America, even if they themselves continue to be saddled by student debt and big hospital bills.
Interesting take. It reminds me of one of my Republican friends who always said that tax cuts for the rich, and all of that, was something he supported because those rich guys were the business owners who would hire him. Odd logic to me, but it worked for him.
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Old 01-20-2020, 06:35 PM
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The least controversial of Trump "pros" is that the economy, imo. If you're going to sell any part of Trump, that's the easiest part to sell.
I agree. If you're trying to convince people to vote for Trump, this is your best shot.
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Old 01-20-2020, 08:15 PM
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The idea that the economy is a C, seems crazy. The 2010s were the only recession free decade since we started to keep track of that kind of thing. Unemployment is the lowest it has been in 50 years, the stock market is at an all time high. Inflation has not been a problem in almost 40 years, interest rates are low. The economy is as good as it has ever been.

The practice of crediting or blaming a president for the economy is a silly superstition, but it seems borderline delusional to say that the economy is just average.
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Old 01-20-2020, 09:04 PM
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I think the economy is stable. The stock market is a bit of a canard- I never see it mentioned all in the same point that we are borrowing $1T a year in the form of tax cuts for the rich, which is largely fueling the boom and largely in the form of buybacks. The market was up 30% while GNP growth was ~2%. No way that can continue; people are cheering a bubble.

OTOH, it is all way better than what is going on in, say, Venezuela. It IS stable, and while homelessness is ever increasing, along with OD deaths, the rest of us are employed and the whole thing is clearly not falling apart. What do we do about $22T of debt? It is a train headed for a brick wall, but better to crash tomorrow than today I guess.

I guess I don't know why these sports guys all bring it up.

Last edited by Try2B Comprehensive; 01-20-2020 at 09:06 PM. Reason: Y kant Try2B do pronouns?
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Old 01-20-2020, 09:18 PM
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A lot of one time measure can make the economy look good in the short term, but if you're heating the house by burning the furniture pretty soon you run out of places to sit.
I wish I had a like button. I am definitely stealing that.
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Old 01-20-2020, 09:48 PM
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... interest rates are low.
Honest question from an economically ignorant person: why is that a good thing? From my point of view, it feels pretty bad that I can't expect to earn any meaningful interest on my savings account, or even on a CD; this is very different from how it was in the late 1990s, which is my benchmark for what a "good" economy feels like. A lot of other things also feel different from how I would expect them to be in a genuinely good economy. I don't, for example, see my students becoming any more willing to consider majoring in subjects that do not have the same name as a specific job, while this wasn't something I really worried about as a student in the '90s -- I just figured I could easily get some sort of job doing something, since that was what I saw happening all around me.
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Old 01-20-2020, 10:35 PM
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Honest question from an economically ignorant person: why is that a good thing? From my point of view, it feels pretty bad that I can't expect to earn any meaningful interest on my savings account, or even on a CD; this is very different from how it was in the late 1990s, which is my benchmark for what a "good" economy feels like.
The real impact of interest rates on consumers isn't what you get on your savings, but what you have to pay on your mortgage and other loans.

In the 1970s and early 1980s, interest rates were, by our current standards, insane. As per this site, the prime rate hit 10% in October, 1978, and was 20% by December, 1980. It went down some, then popped back up to 20% in '81, and stayed above 10% until '85.

And, of course, consumer and business loans are based on that rate. I was a teenager in the late '70s, and I remember my parents fretting about their mortgage rate skyrocketing. And, in early '79, my family broke ground on building a new hardware store (a business which my father and my uncle owned); the interest rate on the loan they had taken out to fund the construction *doubled* between groundbreaking in the spring, and opening the store in October. The store never made money as a result, my family took a financial bath, and the store closed after 3 1/2 years.
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Old 01-20-2020, 10:39 PM
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Honest question from an economically ignorant person: why is that a good thing? From my point of view, it feels pretty bad that I can't expect to earn any meaningful interest on my savings account, or even on a CD; this is very different from how it was in the late 1990s, which is my benchmark for what a "good" economy feels like. A lot of other things also feel different from how I would expect them to be in a genuinely good economy. I don't, for example, see my students becoming any more willing to consider majoring in subjects that do not have the same name as a specific job, while this wasn't something I really worried about as a student in the '90s -- I just figured I could easily get some sort of job doing something, since that was what I saw happening all around me.
Interest rates are a two-edged sword. Low rates help some people and hurt others, and so do high rates.

In general, however, low rates are good. A low rate makes it cheaper for businesses to borrow money. And as long as the economy is good, it's generally better for a business owner to expand his business using other people's money rather than his own.

Low rates also make it easier for people to buy houses.

Somewhat off-setting that -- and bringing in the second half of your post -- some people have the economic equivalent of PTSD after having lived through what is for most people a literally once-in-a-lifetime economic storm.
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Old 01-20-2020, 11:14 PM
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The idea that the economy is a C, seems crazy. The 2010s were the only recession free decade since we started to keep track of that kind of thing. Unemployment is the lowest it has been in 50 years, the stock market is at an all time high. Inflation has not been a problem in almost 40 years, interest rates are low. The economy is as good as it has ever been.

The practice of crediting or blaming a president for the economy is a silly superstition, but it seems borderline delusional to say that the economy is just average.
The policies of Trump and the previous Republican-controlled Congress have been fueling the economy by running up the deficit and the national debt. (So much for Republicans being fiscally responsible. ) This when times are good and we are not in a recession.

So what happens when the next downturn happens, as they inevitably do?

Trump was explicitly told by his advisors that his economic policies will likely cause significant harm to the nation's economy in a few years (in the form of a ballooning national debt), and his answer was that he would no longer be in office then, so who cares?

To put it in more personal terms, is a person good at managing their finances if they are running up their credit cards? Because that is what our nation is doing right now. (The national debt was 76.4% of GDP at the end of 2018, and is expected to rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028. That's analogous to an individual with a credit card debt that is the same as their annual salary.)

Zoid's analogy is even better.
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Old 01-21-2020, 03:06 AM
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And a fair amount of the economic "growth" has been the result of polluting industries being deregulated, allowing them to make short-term profits from degrading the environment. Another form of burning the furniture.

Last edited by Thing Fish; 01-21-2020 at 03:07 AM.
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Old 01-21-2020, 04:06 AM
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People who approve of the incumbent president are more likely to believe the economy is good, and white people are more likely to approve of the current president. I don't think it's any more complicated than this.

Absolutely nothing happened to the economy in November 2016, but there was a substantial realignment in who thought it was doing well.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 01-21-2020 at 04:09 AM.
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Old 01-21-2020, 07:13 AM
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Absolutely nothing happened to the economy in November 2016, but there was a substantial realignment in who thought it was doing well.
Correct. We've been on the same trajectory before and after, and will remain so until we aren't. When that happens is anyone's guess.
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Old 01-21-2020, 09:14 AM
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So, here's your chance for a bit of promotion, DJT supporters. What, aside from simply showing up, has your man done to help things along?


Well, others have alluded to the things he's done up thread, but here's the basic list:
  1. Cut Taxes
  2. Cut Regulations
  3. Imposed Tariffs
  4. Renegotiated Trade Deals


Now, it's debatable how much effect any of those have had on the economy, and as you see above, there's arguments to be made that they will all hurt in the long term, even if they buoy the economy in the short term, but those are the things he's done on which the Trump supporters would hang their argument.
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Old 01-21-2020, 11:26 AM
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The policies of Trump and the previous Republican-controlled Congress have been fueling the economy by running up the deficit and the national debt. (So much for Republicans being fiscally responsible. ) This when times are good and we are not in a recession.

So what happens when the next downturn happens, as they inevitably do?

Trump was explicitly told by his advisors that his economic policies will likely cause significant harm to the nation's economy in a few years (in the form of a ballooning national debt), and his answer was that he would no longer be in office then, so who cares?

To put it in more personal terms, is a person good at managing their finances if they are running up their credit cards? Because that is what our nation is doing right now. (The national debt was 76.4% of GDP at the end of 2018, and is expected to rise to nearly 100% of GDP by 2028. That's analogous to an individual with a credit card debt that is the same as their annual salary.)

Zoid's analogy is even better.
There are two different questions, How is the economy right now?, and how will it be in the future? It may be a bad idea to burn the furniture but you can't say that the room isn't getting hot.
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Old 01-21-2020, 11:45 AM
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Trump and his GOP have given big tax cuts for corporations and the rich. This has fired up corporate profits, stock prices, and employment. This stimulus has been so huge that it would be weird if the economy didn't respond "favorably."

As Ann Hedonia and zoid imply, this stimulation has been akin to feeding meth pills to a truck driver; He stays awake and alert in the short-term, but these policies may backfire in a longer term.

Interest rates are very low. The world's economies are closely tied together; interest rates are even lower in other countries; this also feeds the American boom and keeps the Dollar strong. Recessions in other countries keep imported producer prices from rising, and this (along with the lack of negotiation power of American wage-earners) keeps inflation in check. The low interest rates may come back to haunt, but at present they contribute to the Boom.

Employment is very high, but many of the jobs are low-paying. Asset prices are high, but much of America lacks assets. Do working-class people whose wages are improving very little hear about stock prices and employment stats and think the economy is booming even if they're falling behind personally? I don't know — are there studies of this question?

To answer OP, many of those doing poorly are non-white. Among whites doing poorly, many are young people with little effect on opinions of the punditry. Homeless whites and other under-performers also lack access to the voice of white punditry.

So the economy is doing quite well, at present, for many whites. And anyway, I think, many whites interviewed about the economy will respond as their politicians and preferred pundits tell them to.

How will the economy fare over the next 9 months? Over the next 3 years? These are interesting questions but are beyond OP's scope. And anyway, their answers are unknown.
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Old 01-21-2020, 11:56 AM
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Yes, if your house catches on fire in the dead of winter you will be really really warm for a few minutes. But you’ll freeze to death 24 hours later. This is the reason that sane people, by necessity, have an ability to imagine the future with regards to the consequences of their actions.

So the question is “If Donald J Trump told you to burn down your house because you were cold, would you do it?

Tragically, a lot of people would. Some people really dislike that aspect of life that requires them to make decision after decision after decision. So they abdicate their agency and make the decision to let someone else make their decisions for them. Especially if that person convinces them they are a supernaturally gifted genius.

Good luck in the cold. At least, please don’t burn your clothes, too. Even if Trump tells you to.
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Old 01-21-2020, 12:12 PM
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If Trump loses in 2020, it is in Republican interests to have a big recession kick in in 2021-2024. Usher them back into power by defeating the incumbent Democrat. So, burning the house furniture in the winter is actually beneficial to the GOP.

Perverse incentive, but that's the four-year two-party system for you.

Last edited by Velocity; 01-21-2020 at 12:13 PM.
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Old 01-21-2020, 01:56 PM
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Yes. Last I checked most forecasters expect a recession within the next two years, but they're evenly split whether the recession will come before or after the Election! This leads to scary interplay between economics and politics in the near term.

The GOP has the reins of power and will surely attempt further infusions (e.g. of metaphoric burning or meth) to keep the economy booming and ensure their re-election. I expect a nod to low-wage workers (e.g. payroll tax cut) during the spring or summer: House of Reps would go along. In addition to gratitude from low-wage voters, the wage hikes benefit the boom since an increase in inflation will lower real interest rates. The inflationary picture in 2021 is the big wildcard, but this will depend on the global economy.
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Old 01-21-2020, 03:55 PM
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The real impact of interest rates on consumers isn't what you get on your savings, but what you have to pay on your mortgage and other loans.
Mortgage rates are indeed pretty low now. But credit card interest rates are still pretty high, and many Americans carry a few thousand dollars in credit card debt.

The question I think we should be asking is, "Financially speaking, are American households better off now than they were four years ago?"

I don't know the answer to that question, but I suspect that while few are much worse off, equally few are much better off.
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Old 01-21-2020, 04:06 PM
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Black and Latino Americans are not sold on Trump's economy, but why are so many white Americans hyping Trump's economy, the most?
White people know deep in their hearts that Trump is an absolute dirtbag, and the only defense is "look at the economy"!

And it's not Trump's economy. Trump was elected onto third base, he did not hit a home run.
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Old 02-03-2020, 11:45 AM
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This pretty much. The hot economy is the only thing you can possibly use to sell Trump to swing/undecided voters.

Other issues, such as Trump nominating conservative judges, only work in revving up Trump voters.
Voter turnout may be all he needs.

He is never going to get liberal votes he just needs them to stay home and sulk that Biden got the nomination.
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Old 02-03-2020, 11:47 AM
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The idea that the economy is a C, seems crazy. The 2010s were the only recession free decade since we started to keep track of that kind of thing. Unemployment is the lowest it has been in 50 years, the stock market is at an all time high. Inflation has not been a problem in almost 40 years, interest rates are low. The economy is as good as it has ever been.

The practice of crediting or blaming a president for the economy is a silly superstition, but it seems borderline delusional to say that the economy is just average.
Meh, it's just partisanship. Republicans used to say that Obama was doing a horrible job with the economy as he was pulling the world back from the brink of mad max world.

Trump is goosing the economy right now with tax cuts. At some point you have to pay for those tax cuts.
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Old 02-03-2020, 11:54 AM
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Honest question from an economically ignorant person: why is that a good thing? From my point of view, it feels pretty bad that I can't expect to earn any meaningful interest on my savings account, or even on a CD; this is very different from how it was in the late 1990s, which is my benchmark for what a "good" economy feels like. A lot of other things also feel different from how I would expect them to be in a genuinely good economy. I don't, for example, see my students becoming any more willing to consider majoring in subjects that do not have the same name as a specific job, while this wasn't something I really worried about as a student in the '90s -- I just figured I could easily get some sort of job doing something, since that was what I saw happening all around me.
Interest rates are an important part of the "hurdle rate" that a project has to achieve before it gets done.

So lets say you are a company and your internal cost of borrowing is 5% and you are thinking about a new investment (lets say building a new townhouse development). You do the calculations and your risk adjusted rate of return on that project is 6% so you go ahead and build that development. But if it's only 4% don't.

But then interest rates drop and your internal cost of funding drops to 3%. Now that project that didn't make sense before suddenly makes sense and you make the investment.
  #38  
Old 02-03-2020, 02:57 PM
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The argument against the interest rate cuts last year is that you don’t cut rates during a economic book because that reduces your bullets during an economic slowdown. And, no, I don’t see negative interest rates as a realistic long term policy.

It is amazing to see the difference on how the economy is being reported, even on CNBC which sometimes tries to be unbiased. The unemployment rate would be announced under Obama and there’d be a flood of guests moving the goalposts. What about the labor force participation rate? What about the U6 unemployment rate? They’d grab any macroeconomic stat to try to make things look worse.

My favorite analogy:
Weather forecaster ‘It’ll be a a delightful 82 degrees today’
Conservative: ‘Fake News! You lie. It’s 28 degrees’

Obviously one is in Fahrenheit and the other Celsius.
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  #39  
Old 02-03-2020, 03:10 PM
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I don't think it's necessarily that Trump voters care about whether they themselves are personally cashing in on a boom, as it is that they tend to take big stock in things like "national pride" / jingoism / patriotism, etc. in the same way that impoverished Brazilians love seeing their nation win FIFA soccer World Cups even if they themselves get zero direct benefit. These Trump voters are seeing news reports like "Dow Jones nearing 30,000 points which would be an all-time record," "U.S. economy continues strong growth," "China agrees to buy $200 billion in American goods" and such headlines make them feel good and proud of America, even if they themselves continue to be saddled by student debt and big hospital bills.
I think this is spot on.

One thing that I find interesting is that, in my experience, the typical person has no idea what their tax rate is (myself included). I'm not talking about what tax bracket they fall into (which most people presume is their tax rate, but is instead merely the rate at which the last portion of their salary is taxed), I'm talking about their actual effective tax rate.

Meaning, people think "my taxes are lower" because they are told by politicians that they got a tax break, not because they've actually crunched the numbers and determined that they are paying a lower effective rate.

This spreads to other economic indicators, as well. If the talking person on the TV says that markets are soaring, well, then I can take solace that I live in a good economy. If they furrow their brow and worry about a coming recession, then I might get concerned.

So, the whole "the economy is good" argument is based on what people (who are already inclined to support Trump) have been told about the economy, and which they therefore think justifies their support. It isn't people looking at their financial statements and drawing a conclusion from those. Even if somebody is making more money, or got a better job, I doubt that they can draw a straight line from that success and some sort of government policy that has recently been enacted.
  #40  
Old 02-09-2020, 05:25 PM
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I think this is spot on.

One thing that I find interesting is that, in my experience, the typical person has no idea what their tax rate is (myself included). I'm not talking about what tax bracket they fall into (which most people presume is their tax rate, but is instead merely the rate at which the last portion of their salary is taxed), I'm talking about their actual effective tax rate.

Meaning, people think "my taxes are lower" because they are told by politicians that they got a tax break, not because they've actually crunched the numbers and determined that they are paying a lower effective rate.

This spreads to other economic indicators, as well. If the talking person on the TV says that markets are soaring, well, then I can take solace that I live in a good economy. If they furrow their brow and worry about a coming recession, then I might get concerned.

So, the whole "the economy is good" argument is based on what people (who are already inclined to support Trump) have been told about the economy, and which they therefore think justifies their support. It isn't people looking at their financial statements and drawing a conclusion from those. Even if somebody is making more money, or got a better job, I doubt that they can draw a straight line from that success and some sort of government policy that has recently been enacted.



Then what is the point of FDR and Bernie Sanders? They want government to intervene.
  #41  
Old 02-09-2020, 06:03 PM
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Trump is goosing the economy right now with tax cuts. At some point you have to pay for those tax cuts.
This is exactly right. Republicans have figured out the formula.

Juice the economy with tax cuts when things are on the upswing, and claim credit for the hot economy. When the economy crashes and the Democrat gets elected, demand austerity and assign blame for the tepid recovery.

Start trade wars and military wars when things are fairly stable. When the Democrat gets elected, blame them for military and economic peril.

It's a fucking formula and the Republicans have got it dialed in.
  #42  
Old 02-09-2020, 06:11 PM
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I think this is spot on.

One thing that I find interesting is that, in my experience, the typical person has no idea what their tax rate is (myself included). ...

Meaning, people think "my taxes are lower" because they are told by politicians that they got a tax break, not because they've actually crunched the numbers and determined that they are paying a lower effective rate.

This spreads to other economic indicators, as well. If the talking person on the TV says that markets are soaring, well, then I can take solace that I live in a good economy. If they furrow their brow and worry about a coming recession, then I might get concerned.

So, the whole "the economy is good" argument is based on what people (who are already inclined to support Trump) have been told about the economy, and which they therefore think justifies their support. It isn't people looking at their financial statements and drawing a conclusion from those. Even if somebody is making more money, or got a better job, I doubt that they can draw a straight line from that success and some sort of government policy that has recently been enacted.
Perhaps, but how much less true was this when Democrats ran in the past on 'good economy'? We could probably debate that for pages, and depending which past case (during Bill Clinton? good marks for relative progress some people gave Obama in 2012?) but moreover depending one's worldview that inclines them to the Democrats or Republicans in the first place.

I think everybody with any degree of sophistication whatsoever knows that the US federal govt's actions don't strictly dictate even the cyclical state of the US economy, much less the secular (issues that run across business cycles) state of it. That doesn't mean it's unreasonable for them to attribute changes at the margin to who is 'in charge'. There is some rational basis for that, but it's not some objective fact that everyone is ever going to agree on.

Back to OP 'white Americans are hyping up Trump's economy' seems to me to conflate two things in a confused way. White voters are more likely, and non-white voters less likely, to support the GOP, and this wasn't dramatically more true of Trump than his now nemesis Romney comparing 2012 and 2016 exit polls. Nor has the situation of racial skew in party support changed dramatically up to now, AFAIK. I think you'd need more evidence to say that white and non-white voters' view of the economy since 1/2017 is what creates a party support by race skew...that hasn't really changed.

In fact I think at the margin it's pretty clear risk for Democrats that lower unemployment particularly among non-whites and faster income gains particularly among lower wage workers could depress enthusiasm for them, especially if their candidate runs on radical economic change, though that's yet to be determined. Which again does not mean it's a 'fact' that those trends are due to Trump. It also doesn't mean voters of all kinds aren't concerned about other economic problems (affordability of housing various places, and health care everywhere, for example) that have gotten worse. But the basic stats that have been focused on historically are relatively good, and that probably makes it harder to defeat the incumbent. Rather than it being a matter of one race of voter 'hyping' anything.

Last edited by Corry El; 02-09-2020 at 06:15 PM.
  #43  
Old 02-09-2020, 06:18 PM
Velocity is online now
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Juice the economy with tax cuts when things are on the upswing, and claim credit for the hot economy. When the economy crashes and the Democrat gets elected, demand austerity and assign blame for the tepid recovery.
That's what you get with a 2-party, 4-year term system. You can do carefully calculated plans to goose or deflate the economy as you need, so as to ensure that you are constantly in power, or on the very of returning to power.
  #44  
Old 02-09-2020, 08:54 PM
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I think this is spot on.

One thing that I find interesting is that, in my experience, the typical person has no idea what their tax rate is (myself included). I'm not talking about what tax bracket they fall into (which most people presume is their tax rate, but is instead merely the rate at which the last portion of their salary is taxed), I'm talking about their actual effective tax rate.

Meaning, people think "my taxes are lower" because they are told by politicians that they got a tax break, not because they've actually crunched the numbers and determined that they are paying a lower effective rate.

This spreads to other economic indicators, as well. If the talking person on the TV says that markets are soaring, well, then I can take solace that I live in a good economy. If they furrow their brow and worry about a coming recession, then I might get concerned.

So, the whole "the economy is good" argument is based on what people (who are already inclined to support Trump) have been told about the economy, and which they therefore think justifies their support. It isn't people looking at their financial statements and drawing a conclusion from those. Even if somebody is making more money, or got a better job, I doubt that they can draw a straight line from that success and some sort of government policy that has recently been enacted.
I think they revised the withholding tables after the latest tax cuts, so workers immediately saw a few extra bucks in their paychecks. And a few more bucks than they should’ve gotten, because of course the administration cheated. A lot of people that typically got refunds ended up with a tax bill, but by then the midterms were over.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...hholding-trump

And people don’t realize that the tariffs are a back door tax anyway, prices are going up to cover tariffs. And it’s also a clever giveaway to business owners.

A manufacturer I worked with raised their prices back in July. I expressed annoyance to my sales rep, because we had a substantial price increase in January.

He told me they had to raise prices to cover new tariffs. I suggested that they TELL people that so they’d know who to blame. He laughed and said “You don’t really think the prices are coming back down when the tariffs are removed, do you?”

So then I got it. Trump will roll back the tariffs, and business owners will get a windfall. We'll still be paying more.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 02-09-2020 at 08:54 PM.
  #45  
Old 02-11-2020, 06:44 PM
kaylasdad99 is online now
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Originally Posted by Ann Hedonia View Post
I think they revised the withholding tables after the latest tax cuts, so workers immediately saw a few extra bucks in their paychecks. And a few more bucks than they should’ve gotten, because of course the administration cheated. A lot of people that typically got refunds ended up with a tax bill, but by then the midterms were over.

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-polit...hholding-trump

And people don’t realize that the tariffs are a back door tax anyway, prices are going up to cover tariffs. And it’s also a clever giveaway to business owners.

A manufacturer I worked with raised their prices back in July. I expressed annoyance to my sales rep, because we had a substantial price increase in January.

He told me they had to raise prices to cover new tariffs. I suggested that they TELL people that so they’d know who to blame. He laughed and said “You don’t really think the prices are coming back down when the tariffs are removed, do you?”

So then I got it. Trump will roll back the tariffs, and business owners will get a windfall. We'll still be paying more.
You should have asked him to put that in writing...
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