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  #101  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:05 PM
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I am curious what you think it foretells about everyone's chances who have done worse to win the primary?
I doubt anyone cares about my opinion, but the point is that in a crowded field, only 1/4 of primary voters pick Bernie. When it was 2 candidates in 2016 he was getting 60% of the vote in NH.
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  #102  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:09 PM
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I doubt anyone cares about my opinion, but the point is that in a crowded field, only 1/4 of primary voters pick Bernie. When it was 2 candidates in 2016 he was getting 60% of the vote in NH.
I think that is to be expected (regardless of who it is).

As some drop out their voters will move to the remaining candidates and, by itself, says little about how they will act in the general election.
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  #103  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:20 PM
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So, it looks like Pete will finish a very strong second and be leading in the pledged delegate count. Bernie with less than a 2% margin of victory...isn’t good. But it’s a win. I’ll certainly say that the Pete campaign did a great job of reaching voters all over the state, notice how the results got tighter as the smaller towns started coming in tonight.

On to NV, where I don’t think anyone has a clue what to expect.
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  #104  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:22 PM
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I don’t get the Klobuchar support at all. She has zero charisma for me. Less than Hillary. Shocked Warren didn’t do better in NH. Seems like this is gonna be a Bernie vs Pete race with Amy trying to play spoiler.
  #105  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:23 PM
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I am curious what you think it foretells about everyone's chances who have done worse to win the primary?
Not the one asked but I think it portends trouble for him. With the moderate lane divided the space between his floor and his ceiling is enough for him to get the most votes (but not more delegates), but his ceiling may be lower than others' are, and is not enough to get a majority of the delegates. This was his blow out state last time, winning it by a 22 point margin. Home turf.

I'd say it raises the odds of a contested convention. You need a majority, not a plurality, and of the delegates, not of the votes.

A squeaker like this is really bad for him here, in a state that he dominated by so much last time.
  #106  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:24 PM
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So, it looks like Pete will finish a very strong second and be leading in the pledged delegate count. Bernie with less than a 2% margin of victory...isnít good. But itís a win. Iíll certainly say that the Pete campaign did a great job of reaching voters all over the state, notice how the results got tighter as the smaller towns started coming in tonight.

On to NV, where I donít think anyone has a clue what to expect.
This is big for Mayor Pete, OK for Sanders and also pretty big for Amy Klobuchar. It is devastating for Warren. Less than 10% from a nearby state means it is close to the end.

Biden's front-running status isn't looking good right now coming in 5th. Plus latest polls show Bernie ahead for the head to head vs Trump and Mayor Pete coming on strong. Biden might need to bow out yet again.
  #107  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:26 PM
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Barring any surprises (very unlikely at this point), the candidates will get delegates from NH as follows:

- Sanders: 9
- Buttigieg: 9
- Klobuchar: 6 (surprise showing of the evening)
- Everyone else: 0
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  #108  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:31 PM
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I was pleased to see both Bernie and Pete telling their supporters that in the end, "Vote blue, no matter who!". Even if your favored candidate isn't nominated, the important thing is to remove Trump from office. Don't stay home out of pique - there is too much at stake.

Tonight, as the primary votes are being tallied, four federal prosecutors resign in what appears to be a protest again the Department of Justice reversing itself and recommending Roger Stone's sentence be reduced. The Department of Justice is now openly (even more openly, that is) putting Trump's interests over the rule of law and the interests of the nation. This corruption cannot stand. Vote blue, no matter who, indeed.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKBN2052E5

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  #109  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:31 PM
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Bernie is going to win this state, but just barely. Its pretty much a 3 way tie.

I wonder what that fortells about his chances of winning the primary or winning the general election. he has only won 26% of the vote in the first 2 primaries. Granted, that is equal to or better than everyone else, but still.

I wonder if turnout will go up. 250k people voted in the 2016 NH dem primary.

I'm guessing (and I could be totally wrong) that they are on track for closer to 280k based on how many people have voted so far when 71% of the vote has turned in.
I may have underestimated turnout hopefully. 80% of the vote in and already about 250k people have voted. Turnout may be over 300k, which would be great since turnout in Iowa was about equal to what it was in 2016.

However supposedly some of the lower turnout was because older voters in IA stayed home for some reason. Supposedly super bowl hangovers played a role, thats the rumor at least.
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  #110  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:33 PM
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Not the one asked but I think it portends trouble for him. With the moderate lane divided the space between his floor and his ceiling is enough for him to get the most votes (but not more delegates), but his ceiling may be lower than others' are, and is not enough to get a majority of the delegates. This was his blow out state last time, winning it by a 22 point margin. Home turf.
Nah.

Buttigieg SUCKS when it comes to minority support. I mean, really, really, really bad. He's got nothing there (single digits).

IIRC Sanders is showing 25%(ish) support and Biden (I forget) but double that from the black community.

Buttigieg will hit a wall. Biden will try to surge in and hope to snap up Buttigieg supporters once he crashes and burns (a good bet for Biden). It is not a bad strategy and can totally work if everything goes to plan but it is a dangerous one since Biden is giving an initial lead and momentum to an opponent.

That leaves who? Klobuchar did well tonight but I will be surprised if she can contend in then end. Warren did poorly and doesn't look to pull it out. Bloomberg? He is all in on Super Tuesday looks like...hard to say if he can buy an election.

It'll be an interesting race for sure.
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  #111  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:50 PM
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Well, not as good a performance as I'd hoped for from Bernie, but another win, kind of.

I can't stand Klobuchar; happy to see the moderate lane getting more crowded, though!

I'm sincerely feeling sorry for Joe Biden at this point. I didn't want him to win, but damn, what a faceplant. I hadn't realized he didn't win any States in either of his earlier runs, either.
  #112  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:51 PM
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I know that posters will say, duh, Trump's attacks are mean spirited, but you don't feel any sympathy for Hillary for being the brunt of them, nor Rubio, Cruz, Crazy Bernie, Old man Joe, or Pocahontas. They would land flat with Klob. She might be the best hope there.
I think you mean "I".
  #113  
Old 02-11-2020, 11:57 PM
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Has the minority vote even really come into play yet? IA & NH are pretty white states.

Also which minority group? Are blacks going in one direction, latinos another, then whites a 3rd direction?
Pretty much. Bernie leads with Latinos and the highly diverse "other minority" category, as well as with blacks under 35. But blacks overall are, or have been so far, solidly for Biden.
  #114  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:05 AM
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The scuttlebutt seems to be that Buttigieg has zero support among minorities. Buttigieg does well in predominantly white states (Iowa and New Hampshire).

Sanders is weak among black voters too although nowhere near as weak as Buttigieg seems to be (Buttigieg has almost no support at all there). Biden is light years ahead of both of them among black voters which seems to be why Biden seems to be putting all his eggs into South Carolina, the first state with a substantial black population, and has mostly given up on these first few elections.

So, I expect Buttigieg's campaign to hit a hard wall and Biden to substantially improve. If Buttigieg goes down a lot of his voters will probably go to Biden. I suspect this is the Biden camp's plan/hope.

Sanders will keep cruising through the middle doing pretty good but not great. Warren looks like she can't get enough going. Klobuchar...seems a reach but maybe she can dark horse it. Not good odds though.
Biden is toast. He has so far had overwhelming support among moderate blacks, for a lot of reasons but the most important being that he's perceived as the most electable. But even if he wins SC, all he's proven is that moderate blacks still like him. And that's not enough to win, so even they will probably abandon him by then. I feel like giving him a hug. Thanks for your service, Joe.

As far as Buttigieg, I'm hearing a lot of the same lazy thinking I heard about Bernie in 2016. "He's not doing well with minorities right now; the only possible explanation is that all minorities hate him and will never vote for him under any circumstances". Or, like, maybe they just like the other candidate(s) better? The moderate black vote is up for grabs with Biden fading, and there 's no law of nature that says Buttigieg can't be the one to pick it up. yes, blacks overall are a bit more homophobic than whites, but not that dramatically so. It seems like that voting bloc really values experience, though, so that could give Klobuchar a leg up with them.
  #115  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:07 AM
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So, it looks like Pete will finish a very strong second and be leading in the pledged delegate count. Bernie with less than a 2% margin of victory...isnít good. But itís a win. Iíll certainly say that the Pete campaign did a great job of reaching voters all over the state, notice how the results got tighter as the smaller towns started coming in tonight.

On to NV, where I donít think anyone has a clue what to expect.
No shit. I didn't realize that there hasn't been a poll in Nevada in over a month! Things sure looked different back then...
  #116  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:11 AM
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Not the one asked but I think it portends trouble for him. With the moderate lane divided the space between his floor and his ceiling is enough for him to get the most votes (but not more delegates), but his ceiling may be lower than others' are, and is not enough to get a majority of the delegates. This was his blow out state last time, winning it by a 22 point margin. Home turf.

I'd say it raises the odds of a contested convention. You need a majority, not a plurality, and of the delegates, not of the votes.

A squeaker like this is really bad for him here, in a state that he dominated by so much last time.
Not trying to spin it as a better-than-OK night for Bernie, but you have to remember that independents can vote in the NH primaries. Presumably a lot of moderate and conservative independents who voted in the Republican primary last time moved over to the Dems this time.

Let's see how that damn Buttigieg does in the States coming up, where only real Democrats get to vote!

(Why yes, I did enjoy typing that immensely, thanks for asking)
  #117  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:12 AM
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Nah.

Buttigieg SUCKS when it comes to minority support. I mean, really, really, really bad. He's got nothing there (single digits).
Warren and Klobuchar also SUCK when it comes to minority support. And Bernie doesn’t do that well either. Most minorities only support Biden, and that’s largely for irrational bullshit reasons such as (a) because he was Obama’s VP and (b) because they think white people will prefer Biden in the General. It certainly isn’t because of his record. And I, for one, am sick of hearing about how little Mayor Pete supposedly cares about minorities when Joe Biden literally spoke at Strom Thurmond’s fucking funeral!

Fortunately, Joe Biden’s brains are rapidly turning into wet sand, so it won’t be long before he drops out. When that happens, the minorities are going to have to find someone new. Who’s to say a sizeable number won’t line up behind Buttigieg? Stranger things have happened.

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  #118  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:30 AM
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Nah.

Buttigieg SUCKS when it comes to minority support. I mean, really, really, really bad. He's got nothing there (single digits).

IIRC Sanders is showing 25%(ish) support and Biden (I forget) but double that from the black community.

Buttigieg will hit a wall. Biden will try to surge in and hope to snap up Buttigieg supporters once he crashes and burns (a good bet for Biden). It is not a bad strategy and can totally work if everything goes to plan but it is a dangerous one since Biden is giving an initial lead and momentum to an opponent.

That leaves who? Klobuchar did well tonight but I will be surprised if she can contend in then end. Warren did poorly and doesn't look to pull it out. Bloomberg? He is all in on Super Tuesday looks like...hard to say if he can buy an election.

It'll be an interesting race for sure.
Yes Buttigieg's path from here is harsh. And Sanders has good support among younger Black voters already. Less young ones (who more reliably vote)? Not so much so, and they tend to be positioned more to the Center. Not sure what they do in Nevada and South Carolina, but Bloomberg seems to be winning them over.

No one is "buying" their support btw. But without a doubt competing from here is a big money game.

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Not trying to spin it as a better-than-OK night for Bernie, but you have to remember that independents can vote in the NH primaries. Presumably a lot of moderate and conservative independents who voted in the Republican primary last time moved over to the Dems this time.

Let's see how that damn Buttigieg does in the States coming up, where only real Democrats get to vote!

(Why yes, I did enjoy typing that immensely, thanks for asking)
Color me confused.

I thought part of Sanders appeal was an alleged bringing in those not who are not "real" Democrats?

I don't think Buttigieg does as well in the next two states, and Klobuchar maybe the moderate flavor of the week until Super Tuesday. Whether of not Bloomberg becomes the centrist voice then remains to be seen, partly depending on whether or not Klobuchar can come up with decent new ways to express her messaging, and how much people are attracted to Bloomberg's pitch.
  #119  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:43 AM
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So… Trump for four more years, then?

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  #120  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:44 AM
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SoÖ Trump for four more years it is.
No, no he doesn't. Sanders is going to beat him. Sanders has to beat him. If not Sanders, then Mayor Pete.
  #121  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:57 AM
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Biden is toast.
Concur.
  #122  
Old 02-12-2020, 01:07 AM
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No one is "buying" their support btw.
Everyone is buying support.

Like it or not money plays a huge role in elections. Without it your chances of winning are slim to none.

So, the question then becomes where the money is coming from?

- Buttigieg: Big time PAC money
- Bloomberg: Writing fat checks to himself
- Sanders: Small donations
- Biden: PAC and small donations (more PAC though)
- Klobuchar: (no idea)

Seems to me if you are so wealthy that you can write $100 million checks to your own campaign you are buying an election. Literally.
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  #123  
Old 02-12-2020, 01:13 AM
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Biden is toast.
Buttigieg voters will probably jump to Biden if Buttigieg is out. Buttigieg has done well in these first two elections. If Biden can snap them up then Biden won two states with no effort and spent all his money/time in South Carolina.

Unless Buttigieg stays in the race but his very low minority support suggests he good run so far will end soon...then Biden takes those voters.

Or maybe not...whoever you support this is certainly an interesting race right now.
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  #124  
Old 02-12-2020, 01:37 AM
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Everyone is buying support.

Like it or not money plays a huge role in elections. Without it your chances of winning are slim to none.

So, the question then becomes where the money is coming from?

- Buttigieg: Big time PAC money
- Bloomberg: Writing fat checks to himself
- Sanders: Small donations
- Biden: PAC and small donations (more PAC though)
- Klobuchar: (no idea)

Seems to me if you are so wealthy that you can write $100 million checks to your own campaign you are buying an election. Literally.
Buttigiegís big time PAC money? Donít make me laugh. Now, Sanders and Our Revolution, thatís another story.
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  #125  
Old 02-12-2020, 02:04 AM
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Buttigiegís big time PAC money? Donít make me laugh. Now, Sanders and Our Revolution, thatís another story.
I really do not know what planet you live on:

- Here Are The Billionaires Backing Pete Buttigiegís Presidential Campaign
- Pete Buttigiegís Defense of His Billionaire Funding Is Orwellian
- Buttigieg rises in New Hampshire polls amid support from hybrid PAC
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  #126  
Old 02-12-2020, 02:20 AM
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Some billionaires are as smart as Dalej42, theyíre looking to donate the maximum of $2800 to Pete.

Iíd far rather have Our Revolution than VoteVets.
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  #127  
Old 02-12-2020, 04:03 AM
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Who cares if the analysis is good if it propogates a slur? If Trump's nickname for Booker was N-word Cory, would you be OK with posters repeating that?
I was channeling Trump, but to be fair, in what universe is it a slur? It is an insult to someone claiming something that she is not.

If you have a Native American co-worker named Jane Jones and you call her Running Bear, yes, that is a racial insult and should be scorned.

If you have a white coworker who because his great-grandpappy told him that there was Indian blood in his family way back and hates Columbus Day because it insults "his" people, I think calling him Sitting Bull would be a jab at him, but not a racially disparaging remark against Native Americans at all.

Context matters and calling everything "racism" runs that argument into the ground. It takes away from real racism.
  #128  
Old 02-12-2020, 07:36 AM
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I was channeling Trump, but to be fair, in what universe is it a slur? It is an insult to someone claiming something that she is not.

If you have a Native American co-worker named Jane Jones and you call her Running Bear, yes, that is a racial insult and should be scorned.

If you have a white coworker who because his great-grandpappy told him that there was Indian blood in his family way back and hates Columbus Day because it insults "his" people, I think calling him Sitting Bull would be a jab at him, but not a racially disparaging remark against Native Americans at all.

Context matters and calling everything "racism" runs that argument into the ground. It takes away from real racism.
When marginalized people tell you that your language or actions are racist, you should listen.

http://www.ncai.org/news/articles/2019/08/28/national-congress-of-american-indians-condemns-president-s-continued-use-of-the-name-pocahontas-as-a-slur

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9083001.html

https://www.chicagotribune.com/natio...114-story.html

The context here is that you are a Trump supporter repeating Trump's racist slurs. Please stop.
  #129  
Old 02-12-2020, 07:37 AM
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Everyone is buying support.

Like it or not money plays a huge role in elections. Without it your chances of winning are slim to none.

So, the question then becomes where the money is coming from?

- Buttigieg: Big time PAC money
- Bloomberg: Writing fat checks to himself
- Sanders: Small donations
- Biden: PAC and small donations (more PAC though)
- Klobuchar: (no idea)

Seems to me if you are so wealthy that you can write $100 million checks to your own campaign you are buying an election. Literally.
Yes, money plays a huge role in elections. I hope all realize that. That is one of the reasons that the purity test of no money from those who have it is so self-defeating. Many $1 donations is a great gimmick but more helps.

Big donations do buy something - access to make your pitch, and there is a concern that the chasing of big donations can result in influence. Being self-funded does not do that. No amount of money buys an election, or even assures persuasion - Clinton lost with much more than Trump spent for example. But it helps. I'd rather my candidate be well funded into the battle than not.

None of what you cited shows outsized PAC funds for Buttigieg. So far $900K for Sanders, $6.6 for Biden, and from your cite, $1.7 million for Buttigieg. Nothing like what will be spent. Most money is going to the campaigns at this point. Individual donations are, as pointed out, capped by law at $2800 per election per individual. Not even much access bought with that. Being the one who organizes them and collects might get you some.
  #130  
Old 02-12-2020, 07:48 AM
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Yeah I've heard enough about her parents working in mines and saving money in coffee cans. I've heard her tell these same damn stories every time she gets at a mic. It's tiresome.
I read "Oops", a diary of the Rick Perry campaign. The reporter complained that he had to listen to the same speeches from each candidate so many times "without blowing his brain out". (Note that to the typical audience, they're only hearing the speech for the first time.) I don't think it's fair to criticize the monotonous speeches.

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I don’t get the Klobuchar support at all. She has zero charisma for me. Less than Hillary. Shocked Warren didn’t do better in NH. Seems like this is gonna be a Bernie vs Pete race with Amy trying to play spoiler.
Unfortunately unicorn candidates (supporting policies important to me, have charisma and competence) are rare. Candidates with less charisma can still win the "invisible primary" (looking at Steve Kerry and Mitt Romney here).

Klobuchar appears to be a centrist, and is female, so that might be bringing in some support.

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  #131  
Old 02-12-2020, 07:58 AM
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When marginalized people tell you that your language or actions are racist, you should listen.

http://www.ncai.org/news/articles/2019/08/28/national-congress-of-american-indians-condemns-president-s-continued-use-of-the-name-pocahontas-as-a-slur

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...-a9083001.html

https://www.chicagotribune.com/natio...114-story.html

The context here is that you are a Trump supporter repeating Trump's racist slurs. Please stop.
I'm declaring this discussion out of bounds for this thread. It may be worthy of its own. If you feel so, please make one.
  #132  
Old 02-12-2020, 08:03 AM
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This is big for Mayor Pete, OK for Sanders and also pretty big for Amy Klobuchar. It is devastating for Warren. Less than 10% from a nearby state means it is close to the end.
Yeah, I'm sure Warren will wait until after Super Tuesday before suspending her campaign, since it's only 20 days away and she's been campaigning for a year. But barring one hell of a surprise, it's game over for her.
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Biden's front-running status isn't looking good right now coming in 5th. Plus latest polls show Bernie ahead for the head to head vs Trump and Mayor Pete coming on strong. Biden might need to bow out yet again.
I don't think this is really all that good a result for anyone besides Klobuchar. Biden's obvious, following up a 4th place in Iowa with a 5th in NH. If Bernie was going to knock the lights out anywhere, it should have been here, and he only managed 26%. And Buttigieg couldn't finish better than 2nd in the voting in two states where he was polling way ahead of his national average.

If I were one of the candidates who dropped out in 2019, I'd be looking to see whether it was still possible to jump back in. Because if Bloomberg does OK but not great on Super Tuesday, it'll be anybody's game, with nobody in the race looking like they can actually win it.

Come back, Inslee, Harris, Castro! America needs you!
  #133  
Old 02-12-2020, 08:41 AM
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In some good news for Democrats, turnout in NH was very close to record levels (2008 was the record). Compared to 2016, we only need slightly better turnout to win the electoral college, most likely. I believe this is on track for significantly better Democratic turnout than 2016.

Last edited by iiandyiiii; 02-12-2020 at 08:42 AM.
  #134  
Old 02-12-2020, 09:33 AM
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In some good news for Democrats, turnout in NH was very close to record levels (2008 was the record). Compared to 2016, we only need slightly better turnout to win the electoral college, most likely. I believe this is on track for significantly better Democratic turnout than 2016.
Trump's turnout was more than double than that of Obama and Bush in NH (cite). Trump didn't win NH in 2016. He lost by 2736 votes.

I wouldn't necessarily assume that the happy news about turn out is limited only to one side.

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  #135  
Old 02-12-2020, 09:42 AM
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Trump's turnout was more than double than that of Obama and Bush in NH (cite). Trump didn't win NH in 2016. He lost by 2736 votes.

I wouldn't necessarily assume that the happy news about turn out is limited only to one side.

Regards,
Shodan
So far I haven't seen any evidence that Trump has either increased his support from 2016, or that his supporters are more engaged then they were in 2016. On the other hand, there is some evidence that the Democrats are more engaged than they were in 2016. Too early to be confident about any of this, of course.
  #136  
Old 02-12-2020, 09:47 AM
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Turnout at primaries is not at all predictive of the turnout in the general. So it's not evidence of anything other than a lively primary.

Last edited by CarnalK; 02-12-2020 at 09:47 AM.
  #137  
Old 02-12-2020, 10:55 AM
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Buttigieg voters will probably jump to Biden if Buttigieg is out. Buttigieg has done well in these first two elections. If Biden can snap them up then Biden won two states with no effort and spent all his money/time in South Carolina.

Unless Buttigieg stays in the race but his very low minority support suggests he good run so far will end soon...then Biden takes those voters.

Or maybe not...
Biden will start facing pressure from some of his predominantly big, 'establishment' oriented donors *now* to get out. And his erstwhile rank and file supporters in upcoming states will now face 2-3 weeks of media coverage about how badly his campaign tanked in IA and NH. We'll soon see 'shocking' (not) declines in Biden support in newer polls in NV and SC, none taken since the twin debacles. He doesn't have absolutely zero chance of reversing that, but RCP betting odds for Biden 9% v almost 15% for Buttigieg.

Buttigieg, winner or near in the first two primaries is going to quit soon: who did that, ever, and why would anyone? If he starts doing consistently disappointingly in future primaries yeah eventually he'll drop out...like every candidate but one at some point before the end of the convention. But that's way down the road if so. Biden could be out in days.

Only scenario where Biden is in but Buttigieg drops out is some double bank shot of an unlikely Biden comeback that sustains him the weeks or months it will now take for Buttigieg to run out of momentum and money. Biden looks just tired of it too. Looking at clips of him, it's pretty unreal to me to think about Buttigieg dropping out and Biden getting his support.
  #138  
Old 02-12-2020, 11:04 AM
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Biden will start facing pressure from some of his predominantly big, 'establishment' oriented donors *now* to get out. And his erstwhile rank and file supporters in upcoming states will now face 2-3 weeks of media coverage about how badly his campaign tanked in IA and NH. We'll soon see 'shocking' (not) declines in Biden support in newer polls in NV and SC, none taken since the twin debacles. He doesn't have absolutely zero chance of reversing that, but RCP betting odds for Biden 9% v almost 15% for Buttigieg.

Buttigieg, winner or near in the first two primaries is going to quit soon: who did that, ever, and why would anyone? If he starts doing consistently disappointingly in future primaries yeah eventually he'll drop out...like every candidate but one at some point before the end of the convention. But that's way down the road if so. Biden could be out in days.

Only scenario where Biden is in but Buttigieg drops out is some double bank shot of an unlikely Biden comeback that sustains him the weeks or months it will now take for Buttigieg to run out of momentum and money. Biden looks just tired of it too. Looking at clips of him, it's pretty unreal to me to think about Buttigieg dropping out and Biden getting his support.
Pete derangement syndrome is real. The campaign is running exactly as planned, leading in delegates after the first two states. The ground operation isnít as strong in NV and SC, but I donít think any campaign really is. But, now all the talented staff from IA and NH can start helping. And, the next debate will finally have Pete shedding the target on his back as Amy and Bloomberg will get most of the fire. No one did oppo research on Amy for the last debate, everyone will for the next one. And everyone knows about the Bloomberg money machine that theyíre facing in Super Tuesday.
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  #139  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:09 PM
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Yes Buttigieg's path from here is harsh. And Sanders has good support among younger Black voters already. Less young ones (who more reliably vote)? Not so much so, and they tend to be positioned more to the Center. Not sure what they do in Nevada and South Carolina, but Bloomberg seems to be winning them over.

No one is "buying" their support btw. But without a doubt competing from here is a big money game.


Color me confused.

I thought part of Sanders appeal was an alleged bringing in those not who are not "real" Democrats?

I don't think Buttigieg does as well in the next two states, and Klobuchar maybe the moderate flavor of the week until Super Tuesday. Whether of not Bloomberg becomes the centrist voice then remains to be seen, partly depending on whether or not Klobuchar can come up with decent new ways to express her messaging, and how much people are attracted to Bloomberg's pitch.
Mostly just being snarky. But the independents voting last night were a much less liberal group than voted there in 2016. And really, Bernie's core demographics include youth and working class voters. New Hampshire is significantly older and wealthier than the nation as a whole, so the big 2016 win actually seems harder to explain than last night's modest victory.
  #140  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:11 PM
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Pete derangement syndrome is real.
Your post is your cite.
  #141  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:32 PM
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Your post is your cite.
As not a Buttigieg fan I'd have to say talking about him dropping out and Biden picking up his voters is a lot more detached from reality than saying Buttigieg's campaign is going just as he planned. The latter is a pretty realistic statement I think, I mean how would it be going much better at this point, realistically? Whether Buttigieg lasts out the whole primary season as major contender I've no idea. I doubt the betting odds of 15% chance of his getting the nomination are WTF off in either direction. But Biden is pretty much toast, right now. Talking about Buttigieg dropping out and his support going to Biden is pretty ridiculous IMO.
  #142  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:45 PM
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Well, on the one hand, based on results we're pretty much in Pete's best case scenario world. He won the most delegates in Iowa and tied in NH. Historically, this should lead to his campaign picking up a lot of momentum.

OTOH, his win in Iowa was announced two days later, came with an asterix (lost the popular vote), and, let's just say, won't be what most people remember about the Iowa caucuses. And his second place in NH was, well, second place. So it will be interesting to see how things go for him from here.

But yeah, it's bizarre to suggest that dropping out of the race would be even remotely on his mind at this point.
  #143  
Old 02-12-2020, 12:47 PM
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double posted

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  #144  
Old 02-14-2020, 01:26 AM
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Biden is toast. He has so far had overwhelming support among moderate blacks, for a lot of reasons but the most important being that he's perceived as the most electable. But even if he wins SC, all he's proven is that moderate blacks still like him. And that's not enough to win, so even they will probably abandon him by then. I feel like giving him a hug. Thanks for your service, Joe.

As far as Buttigieg, I'm hearing a lot of the same lazy thinking I heard about Bernie in 2016. "He's not doing well with minorities right now; the only possible explanation is that all minorities hate him and will never vote for him under any circumstances". Or, like, maybe they just like the other candidate(s) better? The moderate black vote is up for grabs with Biden fading, and there 's no law of nature that says Buttigieg can't be the one to pick it up. yes, blacks overall are a bit more homophobic than whites, but not that dramatically so. It seems like that voting bloc really values experience, though, so that could give Klobuchar a leg up with them.
So no one else is going to dispel this racist and patently untrue generalization? Yikes, dude. Itís this kind of crap that makes black voters feel undervalued by both parties. Donít do this. Buttigiegís sexuality has no relevance to black peopleís wariness of him.
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