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Old 02-13-2020, 04:50 AM
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But Can a Gay Man Make It In the South?


As I write this thread, there is a very good chance Pete Buttigieg will be the Democratic presidential nominee for 2020. He probably made it in Iowa. He was second in New Hampshire. Big deal. So was Hillary and her husband.

And I have nothing against that. I am gay myself. Why should I?

Just one thing bothers me: Could a gay candidate make it thru the South?

I think he would get a pretty fare chance in the rest of the nation. All the old homophobes have died (sorry, but it's true). Now, Generation X and Millenials dominate our country. In fact, last I heard, most Americans (even R. Catholics, interestingly) support gay marriage.

But then there's the South.

How would he fair there? And I know it's not in my title, but while we're at it, how would he fare with African Americans? They seem open-minded enough. But the they tend to be more religious, which could mean anything (cf. the Catholic note above).

So how would he do, with these unique groups? And would he get enough support to overcome any regional bias?

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Old 02-13-2020, 07:35 AM
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Perhaps he could be elected without the South. We will see.
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Old 02-13-2020, 07:37 AM
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I think being a Democrat in the south is much more of a deal-breaker than being gay. There isn't a soul in the Democratic Party that would carry Mississippi. GA and NC are the only southern states that a Dem has a prayer at winning. I don't know if being gay is going to cost him a ton of votes, but there will be some just as some people wouldn't vote for a minority or a woman.
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Old 02-13-2020, 08:44 AM
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I'm a rare guy, while male who votes Dem in the South. We are a vanishing species. Clay Aiken ran for Congress in my district and got 40% which means he only got the Dem base vote.

There will be a gay president some day but it will take a while. We probably get a woman first.
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:50 AM
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In fact, last I heard, most Americans (even R. Catholics, interestingly) support gay marriage.
Why "even" Roman Catholics? American Catholics are slightly more liberal on most social issues (gay rights, abortion, etc.) than the country as a whole. They actually got to majority support 2-3 years before most Americans.

Last edited by Lord Feldon; 02-13-2020 at 10:52 AM.
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Old 02-13-2020, 10:53 AM
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Are you asking can he get the dem nomination in those states or GE??

Nomination...maybe. Election???? No Dem could. I still think the 1.4 million felons getting the vote in FL might flip that state though.
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Old 02-13-2020, 11:13 AM
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Are you asking can he get the dem nomination in those states or GE??

Nomination...maybe. Election???? No Dem could. I still think the 1.4 million felons getting the vote in FL might flip that state though.
First, to the OP: I personally have no idea, being from the south (well, sort of - Virginia) but having lived in New York since 1991, have no feel for your question. But that would go to this point: I wouldn't rely on my "feel", and would want to see polling instead. Is anyone aware of any?

As for flipping Florida, and assuming there is no great backlash against Buttigieg, if Florida flips, the Dems need only take one of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Minnesota, or Wisconsin, while the rest of the states vote as they did in 2016, and the Dems win. So to me, any question about whether any Dem can win comes down to the states I mentioned. If Florida doesn't flip, the Dems would have to take any three of the others I mentioned.

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Old 02-13-2020, 11:18 AM
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You don't need the south to win the general election if you carry the midwest and southwest.

Well, you do need virginia but that shouldn't be hard. YOu can lose the rest of the south.
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Old 02-13-2020, 11:27 AM
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=Jim B.;22136137
Just one thing bothers me: Could a gay candidate make it thru the South?

But then there's the South.

... how would he fare with African Americans?
As was asked, later primaries or general assuming he's nominated? Right now I guess he'd be better off focusing on winning primaries . In which case the question is mainly if culturally conservative black Democratic primary voters would have a problem with his orientation. Various posts on various threads have supposed this is a major part of his lack of black support up to now, but something the media is wary of explicitly covering. On latter I agree, it's the kind of thing subject to pretty much a major media cone of silence. But that doesn't mean there's actually is a lot of evidence of it.

Lack of black support for Buttigieg could be explained by the combination of not having really heard of him, among people who don't focus on it till their state's primary approaches, unfavorable things they've heard of his relations with the black community in South Bend (accurate or not), on top of whatever reasons ~3/4 of a heavily white primary electorate in IA/NH didn't vote for him. But those could be fixable; the last one tends to be fixed in part just by outlasting other candidates till there are fewer choices.

As for general, the stereotypical 'white Southerner' isn't a Democrat. And in 'Southern' states the Democrats would reasonably hope to win in a close national race they'd generally rely on people who live there but aren't really 'Southerners', in addition to African Americans. In many of the groups comprising non-'Southerners' living in that region a candidate being gay, if there's any perception other voters are shunning them or the opponent attacking them for it, could actually generate votes or turn out.

In summary, Buttigieg's chances of getting the nomination probably do depend a fair amount on gaining traction with black Democrats he so far lacks, for whatever reasons. In the general if he got there, there'd be too many other things going on IMO to make an electability bet based on his sexual orientation.

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Old 02-13-2020, 12:06 PM
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I live in the deep south. Red state Arkansas. He'll have a steep climg here, IMHO.
I'm not exactly where the pulse beats but there are a bunch of gun toting, Trumper rednecks.
It will be an interesting number to see.

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Old 02-13-2020, 12:11 PM
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You don't need the south to win the general election if you carry the midwest and southwest.

Well, you do need virginia but that shouldn't be hard. YOu can lose the rest of the south.
Essentially what I said, but yes. Clinton in 2016 took Virginia, so I didn't bother to mention it. Flip the midwest states of Wisconsin and Michigan, and the eastern state of Pennsylvania, and you don't need Florida. Or flip Florida, and you only need one of the others. Or you mention the southwest. Arizona might be in play, so add that to the above list.

The main point I would like to make to all the people who are legitimately terrified of Trump, don't think of this in terms of "we have win this election across the whole of America or we are doomed." To a certain extent, we do, but most states that went for Clinton will go for the Dem this time. California, New York, etc. That makes it quite a bit less daunting of a task.
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Old 02-13-2020, 12:14 PM
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Assuming the OP means the general election, I don't think Buttigieg would carry any Southern states (except for perhaps Florida, but that's not truly a "Southern" state) but as the others pointed out above thread he doesn't need the South, any more than a Republican needs the Northeast or west coast.
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Old 02-13-2020, 12:20 PM
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Lack of black support for Buttigieg could be explained by the combination of not having really heard of him, among people who don't focus on it till their state's primary approaches, unfavorable things they've heard of his relations with the black community in South Bend (accurate or not), on top of whatever reasons ~3/4 of a heavily white primary electorate in IA/NH didn't vote for him. But those could be fixable; the last one tends to be fixed in part just by outlasting other candidates till there are fewer choices.
Surely, and I would add, most blacks are for Biden, whom we've all known about for years. If he bows out, his supporters have to go somewhere.

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Old 02-13-2020, 12:45 PM
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I think, all other things being equal, being gay is a disadvantage in American politics, just like being black is a disadvantage. But it's not impossible to overcome for a good candidate.

In the primaries, the big question mark is whether Buttigieg can pick up any significant fraction of black support. In the general, I wouldn't worry; blacks tend to be slightly less supportive of gay rights than whites, but the Democratic Party has been moving pretty steadily leftward on gay rights for the last twenty years and it doesn't seem to have lost them any black support.
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Old 02-13-2020, 12:47 PM
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In my part of the South, his biggest problem is the "(D)" next to his name. Democrats now rank below child molesters and atheists in this area. His gun policy won't help, but the (D) is a nail in his coffin. Voters here simply will not look past his party affiliation before rejecting him.
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:06 PM
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As was asked, later primaries or general assuming he's nominated? Right now I guess he'd be better off focusing on winning primaries . In which case the question is mainly if culturally conservative black Democratic primary voters would have a problem with his orientation. Various posts on various threads have supposed this is a major part of his lack of black support up to now, but something the media is wary of explicitly covering. On latter I agree, it's the kind of thing subject to pretty much a major media cone of silence. But that doesn't mean there's actually is a lot of evidence of it.

Lack of black support for Buttigieg could be explained by the combination of not having really heard of him, among people who don't focus on it till their state's primary approaches, unfavorable things they've heard of his relations with the black community in South Bend (accurate or not), on top of whatever reasons ~3/4 of a heavily white primary electorate in IA/NH didn't vote for him. But those could be fixable; the last one tends to be fixed in part just by outlasting other candidates till there are fewer choices.

As for general, the stereotypical 'white Southerner' isn't a Democrat. And in 'Southern' states the Democrats would reasonably hope to win in a close national race they'd generally rely on people who live there but aren't really 'Southerners', in addition to African Americans. In many of the groups comprising non-'Southerners' living in that region a candidate being gay, if there's any perception other voters are shunning them or the opponent attacking them for it, could actually generate votes or turn out.

In summary, Buttigieg's chances of getting the nomination probably do depend a fair amount on gaining traction with black Democrats he so far lacks, for whatever reasons. In the general if he got there, there'd be too many other things going on IMO to make an electability bet based on his sexual orientation.
I spent ten days on the ground in SC around Thanksgiving and what I found was massive political apathy. They didnít hate Pete, they didnít like Pete, they just didnít care. Itís like selling Christmas trees on the 4th of July.

I think part of the issue is that the South is so solid Republican that itís hard for them to get enthused about any Democrat. It must suck going to the polls and knowing that all your candidates will lose. Plus, South Carolina doesnít seem receptive to the retail politics of Iowa and NH. Perhaps thatís because IA and NH are in play in most general elections.

Buttigieg being gay certainly isnít an advantage, but then again it doesnít even help him in the gay community. But, he is the front runner as of today and has the same record as Bernie with winning one state and a strong second in the other. Itís far easier to back a winner.

Pete does have a world class campaign organization. Itís been thin in SC but itís ramping up as staff moves in. The rest of the Super Tuesday South will get some attention as well.

But, regardless of who the Dem nominee is, theyíre likely to only take Virginia. NC and Florida could be close as they always are, Georgia as a win only in a landslide.
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:11 PM
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In the primaries, the big question mark is whether Buttigieg can pick up any significant fraction of black support. In the general, I wouldn't worry; blacks tend to be slightly less supportive of gay rights than whites, but the Democratic Party has been moving pretty steadily leftward on gay rights for the last twenty years and it doesn't seem to have lost them any black support.
I think people are leaning on older black people tend to be less positive on LGBTQ rights, but I think it's a crutch. The little support in the black community for Buttigieg isn't necessarily due to the fact that he's gay, but rather he doesn't seem to prioritize the issues that matter to the black community. He released a Douglas Plan and criminal justice plan, but only after he was criticized for his record on race, which a lot of black folk see as slightly suspicious. I think black voters in the South want some reassurance that their concerns won't be pushed to the background if he gets into office - as has happened with white politicians in the past.
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:13 PM
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I think people are leaning on older black people tend to be less positive on LGBTQ rights, but I think it's a crutch. The little support in the black community for Buttigieg isn't necessarily due to the fact that he's gay, but rather he doesn't seem to prioritize the issues that matter to the black community. He released a Douglas Plan and criminal justice plan, but only after he was criticized for his record on race, which a lot of black folk see as slightly suspicious. I think black voters in the South want some reassurance that their concerns won't be pushed to the background if he gets into office - as has happened with white politicians in the past.
There's also incidents like these:

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForP...l_off_african/

https://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForP...want_to_trust/
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:21 PM
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I live in a rural county in North Carolina. We had a legislator here named R.C. Soles. You can look him up if you're interested, but while he wasn't out, it was widely assumed that he was gay. There was a mountain of circumstantial evidence that indicated this. He kept getting elected, but I heard more than one person using homophobic language about him, saying things like, "he's a queer, but he's our queer." I don't think local folks will be receptive to an out, gay man from somewhere else.

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Old 02-13-2020, 01:40 PM
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Really? Posting Bernie propaganda? I guess Bros gotta Bro.
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:53 PM
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I live in the deep south. Red state Arkansas. He'll have a steep climg here, IMHO.
I'm not exactly where the pulse beats but there are a bunch of gun toting, Trumper rednecks.
It will be an interesting number to see.
Oklahoma hated Clinton so much they went with Bernie. And Cruz over Trump.
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:58 PM
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I live in a rural county in North Carolina. We had a legislator here named R.C. Soles. You can look him up if you're interested, but while he wasn't out, it was widely assumed that he was gay. There was a mountain of circumstantial evidence that indicated this. He kept getting elected, but I heard more than one person using homophobic language about him, saying things like, "he's a queer, but he's our queer." I don't think local folks will be receptive to an out, gay man from somewhere else.
Speaking of this, I saw a post from someone who lives in South Carolina (can't even remember if it was on this site or not) who said that "everybody" there knew Lindsay Graham is gay, but didn't care. Again, he was "their" gay.

Does anyone from SC agree with that?
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Old 02-13-2020, 01:58 PM
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In my part of the South, his biggest problem is the "(D)" next to his name. Democrats now rank below child molesters and atheists in this area. His gun policy won't help, but the (D) is a nail in his coffin. Voters here simply will not look past his party affiliation before rejecting him.
Do you think a gay Republican would be electable in the South?
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Old 02-13-2020, 02:03 PM
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Do you think a gay Republican would be electable in the South?
Lindsay Graham has been getting elected just fine in South Carolina for decades. No one on earth is under the illusion that he is a straight man.
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Old 02-13-2020, 02:06 PM
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Buttigieg being gay certainly isnít an advantage, but then again it doesnít even help him in the gay community. But, he is the front runner as of today and has the same record as Bernie with winning one state and a strong second in the other. Itís far easier to back a winner.
Wow, that's some world class spinning. I don't remember even the most starry-eyed Bernie supporters in 2016 trying to claim that his pledged delegate lead after New Hampshire made him "the front runner". It's gonna be hard for you to top this.
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Old 02-13-2020, 02:07 PM
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Really? Posting Bernie propaganda? I guess Bros gotta Bro.
But he manages it! Calling Velocity a "Bernie Bro" ROTFL.

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Old 02-13-2020, 02:12 PM
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Lindsay Graham has been getting elected just fine in South Carolina for decades. No one on earth is under the illusion that he is a straight man.
His sexuality is "Lips permanently attached to Trump's rear end." I'm not so much convinced that's gay as just one really messed up fetish.
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Old 02-13-2020, 02:21 PM
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Lindsay Graham has been getting elected just fine in South Carolina for decades. No one on earth is under the illusion that he is a straight man.
Come on, he's just waiting for the right woman.

States like LA, MS, and AL would much sooner vote for a lesbian black woman Republican before they'd vote for a Democrat of any gender or sexual preference.
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Old 02-13-2020, 02:55 PM
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I live in a rural county in North Carolina. We had a legislator here named R.C. Soles. You can look him up if you're interested, but while he wasn't out, it was widely assumed that he was gay. There was a mountain of circumstantial evidence that indicated this. He kept getting elected, but I heard more than one person using homophobic language about him, saying things like, "he's a queer, but he's our queer." I don't think local folks will be receptive to an out, gay man from somewhere else.
I think the fact that he's not out (as with L. Graham) is key here. Our gays can be as gay as they like, as long as they know their place. Buttegieg is out, and that's a huge difference.

I think we've made great strides, but I genuinely don't think a gay candidate will win in the South OR the Midwest. And, as a gay man, I am really, really not looking forward to the backlash against gay people that will come when Trump re-embigots the nation.

He's doing really well, though I fear the lavender ceiling will keep him down. My 75-year-old Catholic aunt is voting for him, so there's one anecdatapoint.
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:08 PM
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As I write this thread, there is a very good chance Pete Buttigieg will be the Democratic presidential nominee for 2020. He probably made it in Iowa. He was second in New Hampshire. Big deal. So was Hillary and her husband.

And I have nothing against that. I am gay myself. Why should I?

Just one thing bothers me: Could a gay candidate make it thru the South?

I think he would get a pretty fare chance in the rest of the nation. All the old homophobes have died (sorry, but it's true). Now, Generation X and Millenials dominate our country. In fact, last I heard, most Americans (even R. Catholics, interestingly) support gay marriage.

But then there's the South.

How would he fair there? And I know it's not in my title, but while we're at it, how would he fare with African Americans? They seem open-minded enough. But the they tend to be more religious, which could mean anything (cf. the Catholic note above).

So how would he do, with these unique groups? And would he get enough support to overcome any regional bias?

Which Democratic candidate can win in the south?

I'm pretty sure we write off that part of the country as a lost cause except Virginia and North Carolina and maybe Georgia this time around.
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Old 02-13-2020, 03:28 PM
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Which Democratic candidate can win in the south?

I'm pretty sure we write off that part of the country as a lost cause except Virginia and North Carolina and maybe Georgia this time around.
I think the OP was intending to address the primaries but Iím not sure. The south does have a lot of delegates and thatís how Clinton started her steamroll over Sanders 2016 even though those states were going Republican in the General
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Old 02-13-2020, 04:15 PM
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In my YT algorithim circles....Pete's sexuality has been brought up exactly one time...when some bigoted delegate was shocked to find out.

So:

1. I live in a bubble or

2. Its early...give Trump time, he'll make some sort of effeminate gesture when talking about him

3. Maybe we've all made great steps when the knock on Pete is that African Americans don't like him cause he said something like "I don't want your vote"...he's too centrist...he's in bed with corporations that want to steal the election from Bernie. All these things get mentioned before his sexuality***

*** From (3) it shouldn't be too hard to get the tenor of the YT videos that appear on my feed. I'm not saying they're true or i agree with them. Just saying thats what YT sends me. That and THOUSANDS OF FUCKING ADS FROM THAT LIZARD FACE BLOOMBERG GOD I HATE HIM.

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Old 02-13-2020, 04:23 PM
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Come on, he's just waiting for the right woman.

States like LA, MS, and AL would much sooner vote for a lesbian black woman Republican before they'd vote for a Democrat of any gender or sexual preference.
One time where you actually might be right.
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Old 02-13-2020, 05:37 PM
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This is a poll from September of last year.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-electability/

14 percent of Democrats say that they would not vote for a gay candidate (38 percent of GOP and 24 percent overall)

Interestingly 38% of Democrats would not vote for a socialist (73 percent of Republicans and 50 percent overall)

If you keep breaking it down, 4% of Dems would not vote for a black candidate and 3% not for a woman. (overall 8% would not vote for a woman and 7% not vote for a black candidate).

So in a Dem primary, Mayor Pete has a 10 point deficit against a black candidate, 9 against a woman, and 14 against a straight white non-socialist male. If those numbers are true, however, Bernie is in real trouble when the field winnows.

Further, these are national numbers. I'm sure that the anti-gay bias is higher in the south, even among Dems and especially among blacks.
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Old 02-13-2020, 05:38 PM
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This is a poll from September of last year.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-electability/

14 percent of Democrats say that they would not vote for a gay candidate (38 percent of GOP and 24 percent overall)

Interestingly 38% of Democrats would not vote for a socialist (73 percent of Republicans and 50 percent overall)

If you keep breaking it down, 4% of Dems would not vote for a black candidate and 3% not for a woman. (overall 8% would not vote for a woman and 7% not vote for a black candidate).

So in a Dem primary, Mayor Pete has a 10 point deficit against a black candidate, 9 against a woman, and 14 against a straight white non-socialist male. If those numbers are true, however, Bernie is in real trouble when the field winnows.

Further, these are national numbers. I'm sure that the anti-gay bias is higher in the south, even among Dems and especially among blacks.


Whatever people say now doesn't matter much in November, though. Come Election Day, the choice is stark: Our Guy or Their Guy. People will swallow almost anything bad about their candidate when they're in that voting booth. Because by that point, the only other alternative is The Other Guy.
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Old 02-13-2020, 05:44 PM
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Whatever people say now doesn't matter much in November, though. Come Election Day, the choice is stark: Our Guy or Their Guy. People will swallow almost anything bad about their candidate when they're in that voting booth. Because by that point, the only other alternative is The Other Guy.
I very much agree, however, I interpreted the OP to be asking about the primary. It would be silly to ask about a Dem gay candidates chance in the south in the general election. No Dem period has much of a chance in the south except for possibly Georgia and Florida (which doesn't count as southern).
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Old 02-13-2020, 05:49 PM
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North Carolina is also a possibility - it went for Obama in 2008.
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Old 02-13-2020, 06:14 PM
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I am in NC and no way gay man wins here. Maybe in another 12 years or so
  #39  
Old 02-13-2020, 06:59 PM
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Well he said no Dem period, not necessarily a gay Dem.

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  #40  
Old 02-13-2020, 08:58 PM
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The problem is going to be turnout. While they may consider Pete to be preferable to Trump, will the African American community see enough of a difference to be motivated to vote?
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  #41  
Old 02-14-2020, 01:27 AM
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Really? Posting Bernie propaganda? I guess Bros gotta Bro.
Velocity doesn't care about Bernie. He just likes to fart in the Democrats' general direction. Which accounts for the barrages of damp squibs that make up 90% of his posts.
  #42  
Old 02-14-2020, 03:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Johanna View Post
Velocity doesn't care about Bernie. He just likes to fart in the Democrats' general direction. Which accounts for the barrages of damp squibs that make up 90% of his posts.
Direct personal insults lacking any further context can be posted in The BBQ Pit.
This is a Warning to limit such posts to that forum.

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  #43  
Old 02-14-2020, 09:06 PM
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Originally Posted by Bijou Drains View Post
There will be a gay president some day but it will take a while. We probably get a woman first.
Well actually...
  #44  
Old 02-15-2020, 10:51 AM
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But Can a Gay Man Make It In the South?
Let's see how he does in New York.

They say that if you can make it there, you'll make it anywhere.
  #45  
Old 02-15-2020, 10:55 AM
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At this current point in time, I'm going to say no a gay man can't make it in the South, and maybe even in some otherwise liberal places.
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  #46  
Old 02-15-2020, 11:55 AM
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While I am sure his being gay matters to a few voters I am not convinced that is the thing that will wreck his candidacy.

Him being a closeted republican should kill his candidacy.
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  #47  
Old 02-15-2020, 12:03 PM
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I canít believe that there are a significant number of people who would vote for a Democratic candidate but not if they were gay.
  #48  
Old 02-15-2020, 12:06 PM
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Him being a closeted republican should kill his candidacy.
I'm not sure if you're joking or not. If not, that's ridiculous.
  #49  
Old 02-15-2020, 01:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Whack-a-Mole View Post
While I am sure his being gay matters to a few voters I am not convinced that is the thing that will wreck his candidacy.

Him being a closeted republican should kill his candidacy.
This isnít true. Heís been a Democrat his whole life unlike Warren and Sanders.
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  #50  
Old 02-15-2020, 01:17 PM
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Originally Posted by hajario View Post
I canít believe that there are a significant number of people who would vote for a Democratic candidate but not if they were gay.
Possibly some African-Americans, a demographic that votes overwhelmingly Democratic but also is majority Christian and - if I recall correctly - is often more anti-LGBT than other Democratic groups as a whole.
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