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  #3501  
Old 02-07-2020, 12:54 PM
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The Bernie Bros have all the more intensity this year because they know most if not nearly all Democrats, motivated by fear of Trump, will line up squarely behind whoever the (D) nominee is by November. That adds fuel to the Bern because it makes Sanders all the more electable should he get the nomination.
  #3502  
Old 02-07-2020, 01:02 PM
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Bloomberg hasn't even appeared in a debate yet. There's going to be a debate TONIGHT and he isn't even in it. Right now the ONLY thing that the average non-political-junkie American knows about Bloomberg is that he's really really rich, and he was the mayor of New York. Move up one tier of knowledge and maybe they also know that he's extremely anti-gun and that he tried to restrict the sizes of soda cups.

It has been almost a year since this contest began (i.e. all the candidates announced their running.) That's one whole year that Bloomberg was NOT selling himself to the American people. I don't give a fuck how much money he has, it's too late in the game for him to catch up.

I'm just in awe of these people who think Bloomberg actually has a shot. All he is going to do is suck attention and energy away from the other candidates, who, flawed though they all may be in some way, have at least PUT THEIR TIME IN soldiering on through this campaign for the past year.
20 other Democrats have put their time in in Iowa and New Hampshire and got nothing to show for it. I'm not sure Bloomberg's strategy isn't kind of brilliant. He may not be getting a lot of national attention (other than references to how much money he's spending, but he's getting recognition in the states that are actually having an election soon...and aren't those the ones that count? All he's lost are Iowa's and New Hampshire's delegates. If he scores on Super Tuesday, he won't care about those at all.
  #3503  
Old 02-07-2020, 01:05 PM
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The Bernie Bros have all the more intensity this year because they know most if not nearly all Democrats, motivated by fear of Trump, will line up squarely behind whoever the (D) nominee is by November. That adds fuel to the Bern because it makes Sanders all the more electable should he get the nomination.
A New Hampshire Bernie supporter on NPR this morning made a humorous but possibly intelligent point. Trump will attack the nominee viciously, whoever he/she is, and will brand them as "Socialist!!!" regardless. Most of the nominees will "scatter like cockroaches when the light goes on" if that happens, but Bernie will just lean into it.

I guess if you're gonna be tarred as a socialist anyway we might as well nominate one.
  #3504  
Old 02-07-2020, 02:33 PM
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A simple reality check: the economy is very good.

A general election pitch based on an economic populist disruptive revolution is a hard sell when middle class voters are personally doing well, even some who are disgusted with Trump and strongly disapproving of him otherwise on almost all issues. I don't think they flip to Trump, but I can see some depressed turnout in the suburbs with Sanders at the top of the ticket. The Iowa results, limited in value as they may be, do give some warning of that: Sanders ran up his score in the cities/college towns there but lost handily in the suburbs and rural areas to Buttigieg.

For those who buy what Bitcofer is selling, it is of note that unless the D candidate "ends up being a disruptor like Bernie Sanders" she's confidently predicted an electoral result of Democrat 278 to Republican 197 votes. She makes NO claim that "energizing the base" is key, or even matters at all, btw.
  #3505  
Old 02-07-2020, 02:40 PM
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In a world where we say swing voters don't exist, what does "the base" even mean?
  #3506  
Old 02-07-2020, 03:38 PM
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Bloomberg hasn't even appeared in a debate yet. There's going to be a debate TONIGHT and he isn't even in it. Right now the ONLY thing that the average non-political-junkie American knows about Bloomberg is that he's really really rich, and he was the mayor of New York. Move up one tier of knowledge and maybe they also know that he's extremely anti-gun and that he tried to restrict the sizes of soda cups.

It has been almost a year since this contest began (i.e. all the candidates announced their running.) That's one whole year that Bloomberg was NOT selling himself to the American people. I don't give a fuck how much money he has, it's too late in the game for him to catch up.

I'm just in awe of these people who think Bloomberg actually has a shot. All he is going to do is suck attention and energy away from the other candidates, who, flawed though they all may be in some way, have at least PUT THEIR TIME IN soldiering on through this campaign for the past year.
So how do you explain that with no debate stage exposure to date, with all that time of not selling himself, the most recent national poll has him polling higher than the apparent underdog winner of the Iowa caucus, Pete Buttigieg, who has gotten a metric shitload of press? Okay the national polling after Iowa is limited, but even before in national numbers he's been in the pack with Warren and Buttigieg.
  #3507  
Old 02-07-2020, 05:15 PM
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Really simple: I don't trust the polls. I don't trust them at all.

You can say or think whatever you want about that, including that I'm an idiot; it's OK, and I don't take it personally. That's my belief and the chances of it changing, according to the most recent poll, is zero.
  #3508  
Old 02-07-2020, 05:19 PM
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In an interview with Vox, James Carville makes an impassioned argument as to why this is a terrible time to launch a progressive revolution.

I think I agree.
  #3509  
Old 02-07-2020, 05:28 PM
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In an interview with Vox, James Carville makes an impassioned argument as to why this is a terrible time to launch a progressive revolution.

I think I agree.
He's right and he's wrong. In the House or on a local level, sure. But we need to take back the senate and the White House.
  #3510  
Old 02-07-2020, 05:41 PM
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A New Hampshire Bernie supporter on NPR this morning made a humorous but possibly intelligent point. Trump will attack the nominee viciously, whoever he/she is, and will brand them as "Socialist!!!" regardless. Most of the nominees will "scatter like cockroaches when the light goes on" if that happens, but Bernie will just lean into it.

I guess if you're gonna be tarred as a socialist anyway we might as well nominate one.
That's fine for Sanders to fully take ownership on, but I'm not sure those down ballot candidates who helped the Democratic Party gain control of the House by winning red districts will be thrilled. Moderates won those seats. By slim margins but they won. Whereas the Sanders wing which elevated the likes of AOC in already blue districts, did not flip one red district. Democrats need to keep hold of the house and win the senate too.

In addition to use that argument that whoever the Dems will put up will be branded a socialist. True. But the swing state voters and red state voters haven't been rejecting moderate democrats over the years. Moderate democrats support protecting the welfare blanket, protecting and expanding civil rights, investing in education/healthcare/public utilities and green environmental initiatives too. If those people have been rejected as too much big government and rather they voted in favour of republicans who instead work to roll back those policies then it makes no sense that they would gleefully accept a loud and proud socialist as if that's what they have been waiting for all this time.
  #3511  
Old 02-07-2020, 05:50 PM
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correction^

*have been rejecting moderate democrats over the years
  #3512  
Old 02-07-2020, 06:03 PM
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That's fine for Sanders to fully take ownership on, but I'm not sure those down ballot candidates who helped the Democratic Party gain control of the House by winning red districts will be thrilled. Moderates won those seats. By slim margins but they won. Whereas the Sanders wing which elevated the likes of AOC in already blue districts, did not flip one red district. Democrats need to keep hold of the house and win the senate too.

In addition to use that argument that whoever the Dems will put up will be branded a socialist. True. But the swing state voters and red state voters haven't been rejecting moderate democrats over the years. Moderate democrats support protecting the welfare blanket, protecting and expanding civil rights, investing in education/healthcare/public utilities and green environmental initiatives too. If those people have been rejected as too much big government and rather they voted in favour of republicans who instead work to roll back those policies then it makes no sense that they would gleefully accept a loud and proud socialist as if that's what they have been waiting for all this time.
I think that anything can be Overton-Windowed into becoming acceptable, though. Even downright fascism, I think, could pass - and be elected - on the label of "Fascism" itself - if given enough airtime, time to talk through its "pros and cons," etc.

Not that I'm comparing democratic socialism to fascism, but I think almost anything can fly these days if it's given enough time and the public frog given enough time to slowly warm up in the saucepan water.
  #3513  
Old 02-08-2020, 03:50 PM
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In an interview with Vox, James Carville makes an impassioned argument as to why this is a terrible time to launch a progressive revolution.

I think I agree.
James Carville - now there's a blast from the past!

He was a big deal in 1992. But Toto, we're not in the 90s anymore.
  #3514  
Old 02-08-2020, 05:50 PM
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James Carville - now there's a blast from the past!

He was a big deal in 1992. But Toto, we're not in the 90s anymore.
Nothing like an "OK, Boomer" coming from a boomer. Most amusing.
  #3515  
Old 02-08-2020, 06:19 PM
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New Biden commercial takes shots at Mayor Pete's record.
  #3516  
Old 02-08-2020, 06:28 PM
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James Carville - now there's a blast from the past!

He was a big deal in 1992. But Toto, we're not in the 90s anymore.
So no comment about his actual argument made? He's not an in-thing trending and that's enough to dismiss the points?

Okay.

The argument made is that the Democrats win, not only the Presidency but the Senate
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By framing, repeating, and delivering a coherent, meaningful message that is relevant to peopleís lives and having the political skill not to be sucked into every rabbit hole that somebody puts in front of you.

The Democratic Party is the party of African Americans. Itís becoming a party of educated suburbanites, particularly women. Itís the party of Latinos. Weíre a party of immigrants. Most of the people arenít into all this distracting shit about open borders and letting prisoners vote. They donít care. They have lives to lead. They have kids. They have parents that are sick. Thatís what we have to talk about. Thatís all we should talk about.

Itís not that this stuff doesnít matter. And itís not that we shouldnít talk about race. We have to talk about race. Itís about how you deliver and frame the message. I thought Cory Bookerís ďbaby bondsĒ plan was great and the kind of thing the party could connect to peopleís actual lives.

We have one moral imperative here, and thatís beating Trump. Nothing else matters. ...

... not everything has to be on the left-right continuum. I love Warrenís day care plan just like I love Bookerís baby bonds. Thatís the kind of stuff our candidates should explain and define clearly and repeatedly for voters and not get diverted by whatever the hell is in the air that day.

Hereís another stupid thing: Democrats talking about free college tuition or debt forgiveness. Iím not here to debate the idea. What I can tell you is that people all over this country worked their way through school, sent their kids to school, paid off student loans. They donít want to hear this shit. And you saw Warren confronted by an angry voter over this. Itís just not a winning message.

The real argument here is that some people think thereís a real yearning for a left-wing revolution in this country, and if we just appeal to the people who feel that, weíll grow and excite them and weíll win. But thereís a word a lot of people hate that I love: politics. It means building coalitions to win elections. It means sometimes having to sit back and listen to what people think and framing your message accordingly. ...
The argument could be made by the newest most exciting new thing or Joe the Plumber. It is as cogent either way.
  #3517  
Old 02-09-2020, 09:14 PM
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I must beg your indulgence to interrupt the thread with an installment of Cute Things My Kid Said.

"Daddy, I know why you like Bernie!"

SPOILER:
"Because his name sounds like "Beer!"
  #3518  
Old 02-09-2020, 09:29 PM
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The Carville take on the campaign has already its own thread. Which has had the expected responses.

Last edited by JRDelirious; 02-09-2020 at 09:31 PM.
  #3519  
Old 02-09-2020, 10:27 PM
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Yeah, Carville is a relic of the past. Targeting "moderate independents" was the way to win when he was working for Bill Clinton.

But we're in an era of hyperpartisanship now. The portion of the electorate that might actually vote for either Trump or the Democrat is like 5%. And sure, if you could win all of that 5%, you'd win, but you can't because they all want different things and, let's face it, they're all low information voters at this point. Some of them are Romney-Clinton voters and some of them are Sanders-Trump voters. So really the best you can hope for is to win this group like 3-2, and the worst you can do is to lose 3-2.

And at that point, it becomes valid to wonder whether you might actually come out ahead by targeting the Obama-Stein voters instead.

The way to win now isn't by targeting the "swing voters", but by increasing turnout among the groups that are going to vote for you if they show up. And given that half the people don't bother to vote at all, even a small increase in turnout can have huge effects.
  #3520  
Old 02-10-2020, 06:06 AM
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And at that point, it becomes valid to wonder whether you might actually come out ahead by targeting the Obama-Stein voters instead.
Or the Obama-stay-at-home voters.
  #3521  
Old 02-10-2020, 09:32 AM
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I did something yesterday that I've never done before: a living room community gathering in support of a candidate -- in this case, Bloomberg. I think I've made up my mind -- I Like Mike, on Super Tuesday in California.
  #3522  
Old 02-10-2020, 10:04 AM
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I did something yesterday that I've never done before: a living room community gathering in support of a candidate -- in this case, Bloomberg. I think I've made up my mind -- I Like Mike, on Super Tuesday in California.
Im pretty sure Iím going with Bloomberg as well.

Heís not just a rich guy buying the Presidency. Take a look at the Bloomberg Philanthropies website. Heís spent the last few years working on public policy initiatives at the local and state levels. Heís actually DONE real stuff to address issues like climate change and the opioid crisis. Lots of other stuff as well. Gun control. Health care. This isnít some vanity campaign. When you donít have to beg for money you can focus that energy on other things. And itís refreshing to support a candidate who isnít always trying to hit me up for $5.

Heís the anti-Trump. Heís the ice to Trumpís fire, the Superego to his Id, the lawful good to his chaotic evil.

Iíd probably vote for him even if the other candidates werenít so flawed.

Last edited by Ann Hedonia; 02-10-2020 at 10:08 AM.
  #3523  
Old 02-10-2020, 10:13 AM
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I've gotten targeted Bloomberg ads and they have swayed me against him. They emphasize his passion for gun control, which I am neither against nor have super-high on my priorities and it doesn't have a large chance of meaningful reform getting done anyway. So he goes to the bottom of my viable candidates choices if he's going to tilt so much at that windmill. Not that it matters since I live in Florida and am not a registered party member.

Last edited by Ludovic; 02-10-2020 at 10:13 AM.
  #3524  
Old 02-10-2020, 10:55 AM
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Im pretty sure Iím going with Bloomberg as well.

Heís not just a rich guy buying the Presidency. Take a look at the Bloomberg Philanthropies website. Heís spent the last few years working on public policy initiatives at the local and state levels. Heís actually DONE real stuff to address issues like climate change and the opioid crisis. Lots of other stuff as well. Gun control. Health care. This isnít some vanity campaign. When you donít have to beg for money you can focus that energy on other things. And itís refreshing to support a candidate who isnít always trying to hit me up for $5.

Heís the anti-Trump. Heís the ice to Trumpís fire, the Superego to his Id, the lawful good to his chaotic evil.

Iíd probably vote for him even if the other candidates werenít so flawed.
Same.

And I find his calm, confident lack of personality refreshing.
  #3525  
Old 02-10-2020, 11:10 AM
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Or the Obama-stay-at-home voters.
Exactly. Who as a group also lean left, though not as strongly as the Obama-Stein voters.
  #3526  
Old 02-10-2020, 02:53 PM
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Two national polls released with surveys done entirely post-Iowa, and Sanders leads both, one by only one point but the other by eight. He's now within 0.2% of Biden in the 538 polling average nationally.
  #3527  
Old 02-10-2020, 03:51 PM
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In this poll, Bernie has indisputably pulled into the lead.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/ne...-national-poll

Last edited by Velocity; 02-10-2020 at 03:52 PM.
  #3528  
Old 02-10-2020, 08:33 PM
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Another national poll with Sanders leading released today, pushing him a few tenths of a percent ahead of Biden in the 538 average.
  #3529  
Old 02-10-2020, 08:40 PM
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Good. That should freak out a few more people to Bloomberg's camp!
  #3530  
Old 02-10-2020, 09:24 PM
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The numbers are far apart, but I wasn't expecting to see Biden right next to Yang on the NH RCP.
  #3531  
Old 02-10-2020, 09:43 PM
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The numbers are far apart, but I wasn't expecting to see Biden right next to Yang on the NH RCP.
My lord, get a grip. There is a top 4 currently. It should not surprise you that the lowest of the top 4 is "next to" someone from the lower pack.
  #3532  
Old 02-10-2020, 10:11 PM
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Klobuchar has now moved to 3rd ahead of Biden and Warren, which pretty much seals Biden's fate going forward. Klobuchar will take away the precious 'centrist' oxygen that Biden needs to keep going. The problem is, Klobuchar might also blunt Bloomberg's rise.
  #3533  
Old 02-10-2020, 10:13 PM
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My lord, get a grip. There is a top 4 currently. It should not surprise you that the lowest of the top 4 is "next to" someone from the lower pack.
Top 5 actually; Klobuchar is also ahead of Biden. And that average isnít even counting Bloomberg.
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Old 02-10-2020, 10:16 PM
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Klobuchar has now moved to 3rd ahead of Biden and Warren, which pretty much seals Biden's fate going forward. Klobuchar will take away the precious 'centrist' oxygen that Biden needs to keep going. The problem is, Klobuchar might also blunt Bloomberg's rise.
Why is that a problem?

For all the worry in certain quarters that the Dem establishment will sabotage Bernie, they certainly seem to be doing a terrible job of it!
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  #3535  
Old 02-10-2020, 10:17 PM
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Bernie vs. all of the non-Bernies would be the dream scenario for Bernie. Repeat of Trump-in-GOP-land 2016.
  #3536  
Old 02-10-2020, 10:20 PM
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Yes, I realized too late I'd forgotten Klobuchar.

As far as the next tier goes: Yang, Stier, Gabbard and Bloomberg are 2-3% on 538.
  #3537  
Old 02-10-2020, 10:31 PM
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Bernie vs. all of the non-Bernies would be the dream scenario for Bernie. Repeat of Trump-in-GOP-land 2016.
No. There is an important difference between Dem and Repubs. Dems have no winner-take-all primaries.

Last edited by CarnalK; 02-10-2020 at 10:33 PM.
  #3538  
Old 02-10-2020, 10:44 PM
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But there is a 15% threshold for getting delegates. Currently, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are all polling below that threshold nationally.
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  #3539  
Old 02-10-2020, 11:00 PM
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Politics today are controlled by Liars


(I noticed a good article and wanted to bump our "Politics today are controlled by Liars" thread or whatever it's called. But I couldn't find that thread. Where is it? It is the Number #1 headline of today's politics. I'll post a link here as a place-holder and hope some eloquent Doper will start the important thread on this topic.)

Political discourse and elections today are controlled by liars ó whoever is adept at clever lies win. Good-spirited parties ó like the Democrats ó don't approve of lying; thus they are destined to lose. This is not true just in the U.S. ó some other countries around the world are following in the U.S.'s footsteps. All other political issues pale besides this one. Elections are naturally won by criminals and liars; and this dire situation is just getting worse and worse.

Here's an Atlantic article which takes yet another look at this sad trend.
  #3540  
Old 02-10-2020, 11:45 PM
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But there is a 15% threshold for getting delegates. Currently, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are all polling below that threshold nationally.
Bloomberg is now at 15% in Texas and 11% in Cali on 538. 3 weeks to go. I think implications above are not unlikely: He's built some decent city level alliances that could suprise pollsters with GOTV.
  #3541  
Old 02-11-2020, 12:12 AM
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But there is a 15% threshold for getting delegates. Currently, Bloomberg, Buttigieg and Klobuchar are all polling below that threshold nationally.
You sure about that?
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Quinnipiac University released a national survey conducted entirely after Iowa voted, and it found a new polling front-runner: Sen. Bernie Sanders, who led the field with 25 percent support. ... Just behind Biden, who polled at 17 percent, came former New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg at 15 percent and Sen. Elizabeth Warren at 14 percent. Former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg wasnít too distant of a fifth at 10 percent
So the first national poll conducted completely after Iowa has three at 15% or higher nationally - Sanders, Biden, and Bloomberg - with Warren just below. Biden and Warren of course are both falling off the cliff while meanwhile Bloomberg and Sanders are on the rise.

But of course the 15% threshold is not in a national race, but in individual state and even Congressional district level thresholds for delegates. We'll be seeing state level Super Tuesday polling in the next few weeks ...

Just on the basis of funding to be able to compete in those states it may quickly be functionally down to Sanders v Bloomberg with Buttigieg and maybe Warren continuing to nip at their heels but barely, but picking up some delegates here and there. Not sure if Biden even keeps enough funding to be a heel nipper, but who knows? His personality type is to try to get back up after being knocked down more than most I think.
  #3542  
Old 02-11-2020, 01:16 AM
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I Jin


Would not have guessed two weeks ago that Iíd be hoping for Bidenís numbers to improve.
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Old 02-11-2020, 01:55 AM
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Would not have guessed two weeks ago that Iíd be hoping for Bidenís numbers to improve.
Haha. You and me both. Which is weird in itself.

But it has that 'be careful what you wish for' vibe to it.
  #3544  
Old 02-11-2020, 06:00 AM
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Nate Silver's model leaves only about a 3% chance for Bloomberg to get a majority of delegates. I suppose stranger things have happened, but it's very hard to see what his path could be.
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Old 02-11-2020, 03:14 PM
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Calm down. Democrats are not in disarray.
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Everyone just calm down.

People in politics suffer from a kind of myopia, in which what’s right in front of them, being in sharp focus, seems like the most important thing that has ever happened or will ever happen. This Changes Everything, we say over and over, despite the fact that the last 10 or 15 events that were supposed to Change Everything turned out to be so inconsequential that we’ve already forgotten what they were.

And what is it that’s happening now, this extraordinary disarray that threatens to destroy Democrats’ chances of winning in November? You might want to send the children out of the room before I tell you: Presidential candidates are criticizing each other.
I find his words reassuring. Criticizing other campaigns and candidates is part of the process; defending one's preferred candidates and campaigns is, too. And so is the hand-fluttering about whether such criticism means that WE'RE ALL GONNA LOSE.
  #3546  
Old 02-11-2020, 06:36 PM
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Klobmentum is coming!

https://twitter.com/Cathars34411766/...51937267912704
  #3547  
Old 02-11-2020, 08:18 PM
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Originally Posted by iiandyiiii View Post
If a New Thing of making words out of "Klob" is compulsory, then I am going to actively campaign against Klobuchar.

That, or klobber someone.
  #3548  
Old 02-11-2020, 08:43 PM
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Yang and Bennett both out.
  #3549  
Old 02-11-2020, 08:46 PM
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If Bernie Sanders gets the nomination, is it crazy to suspect Trump will refuse to debate him? I think Trump is such a tremendous coward that he will fabricate some reason not to debate Bernie.
  #3550  
Old 02-11-2020, 08:47 PM
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If Bernie Sanders gets the nomination, is it crazy to suspect Trump will refuse to debate him? I think Trump is such a tremendous coward that he will fabricate some reason not to debate Bernie.
Not at all crazy, but there's no way to predict what Trump will do, any more than one can predict what a rambunctious and frustrated toddler will do.
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